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Mar
02

Winter Hanging Tough

By · March 2, 2013 at 9:21 pm

So much for an early spring.  I never really believed groundhogs anyway!  Unseasonably cold air dominates the weather headlines.  The Saturday high temperature map would be more fitting for overnight lows this time of year.

highs_today

A steady north-northwesterly wind will keep temps below normal on Sunday, and keep lake effect flurries in play through early morning.  Though peeks of sun will be more prevalent by late Sunday…I think clouds will occupy more of the sky than sun.

morningplanner (1)

plannerpm (1)

highs_tomorrow (1)

 

After a relatively quiet Monday, all eyes will be on a potential winter storm.  Currently the storm is coming onshore in British Columbia.

 

VAPOR

Since the system has been mainly over water, weather balloons haven’t had an opportunity to fully sample the storm yet.  That changes Sunday, and we’ll have higher forecast confidence as a result.  For now it’s way too early to get excited about the snowfall model outputs I have below.  Nonetheless, heavy/accumulating snow is “possible” Tuesday-Wednesday anywhere from the Michiana border to the I-70 corridor (subject to change).

JETSTREAM

The image below (click to enlarge) not surprisingly shows there is model uncertainty regarding position of the heaviest snow.  For now however, all model output is indicating heavy potential of over 6″ for some areas of central/northern Indiana (NOT A FORECAST, JUST MODEL DATA).  March snowstorms of this magnitude are rare for the viewing area, but modeling has been persistent on heavy precip.  Plenty of time to iron-out details and changes the next 60-72 hours.

STORM

Here’s what we know know:

Winter Storm Potential Tuesday-Wednesday

Heavy precip possible (sleet/freezing rain/snow all on the table)

Could be long duration event 

VERY changeable forecast and track uncertain at the moment

7day (1)

With the above disclaimer know that the 7day forecast could change dramatically between the time of this posting and Sunday evening.  Check back for updates, but rest easy knowing no travel worries locally for next few days.

Thanks for reading the blog and have a great weekend.

Sean Ash / Twitter & Facebook

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