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Apr
27

Wettest April On Record?

By · April 27, 2013 at 7:48 pm

That is a possibility with the return of rainfall the next 24 hours.  As of now, this month is the 3rd wettest April on record… trailing only 1893 and 1922 for top honors.

SNOW_STATS

“If” computer model rainfall projections of .25″ to a .50″+ between now and Monday 7am verify… this could be wettest April on record by the end of the weekend.  Stay tuned!RAIN_POTENTIAL

Showers are increasing across Central Indiana as I type this forecast blog, and become likely area wide overnight into Sunday morning.  This is in response to a slow-moving low pressure system that will turtle along the I-70 corridor the next 36 hours.  The eastern side of the low center has better lift, and provides higher rain chances… contrasted by descending air on the northwestern/western side where rain becomes more scattered.  This positioning plays a role in our Sunday forecast.  Notice below the coverage of rain “scattering” out later Sunday.

RPM RPM_1 RPM_2 RPM_3 RPM_4

Less rain/cloud cover also plays a big role in the latest temperature forecast.  Overcast tonight, despite the rain, serves as a blanket and keeps lows from dropping much below 52°-54°.

LOWS_TONIGHT

But the “blanket” of clouds blocks sunshine on Sunday, and temperatures will only be roughly 10° warmer than overnight lows.

highs_tomorrow

A brighter sky allows Monday temps to quickly soar into the mid 70s!  This marks the beginning of a prolonged stretch of above normal temps that will send us to near 80°+ during mid-week!highs_wednesda

The late week/next weekend forecast gets more difficult, and ultimately hinges on the precise location of a cold-core low… something that is not unanimous in current forecast modeling.  Below is a comparison of placement for Friday 2pm (CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE).  Notice the Euro model is farther west than the GFS (the GFS has been trending westward to the Euro’s solution).  This is a drier, warmer solution for Central Indiana (noted by star) for Friday… and why I’ve opted to go mid-70s in my latest forecast.  Also note the channel of precipitation on the eastward side of the low.  Impossible to say how wide this will actually be.  Areas outside of the rain axis will have considerably warmer (50s vs 70s) temperatures than areas parked under rain/storms.

FRIDAY_MODELS

There is some agreement, for now) that the rain axis may have a higher impact locally on Saturday.  Still plenty of time to change, but “if” the scenario below verifies it would be wet for the Indianapolis Mini-Marathon.  Nothing set in stone, but something we’re monitoring for changes.

SATURDAY_MODELS

With all that said… know the 7 day below is highly changeable.  The potential narrow nature of rain on east side of the system makes for a highly bustable forecast even within 24 hours.  Could be a feast or famine situation next weekend.

7day

 

Thanks for reading the blog and be sure to check back for updates.

 

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