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Oct
01

Weekend Storm System: A Washout For Central Indiana?

By · October 1, 2013 at 4:09 pm

The Skytrak13 weather team has been advertising the potential of strong to severe storms on Saturday, as a sharp cold front approaches from the west.  That is still a possibility though exact timing and strength remains to be determined.  The forecast picture gets more uncertain for the second half of the weekend as computer model solutions diverge a great deal.

***CLICK IMAGES TO ENLARGE***

GFS_WEEKEND

Above is a four panel image of the GFS (American) model from Saturday 8pm to Monday 8am.  This idea would put the aforementioned cold front (and possibly strong storms) in central Indiana Saturday evening, and east of the area by Sunday afternoon… resulting in a chilly, but dry finish to the weekend.  Below is the latest output of the trusted European model.

EURO_WEEKEND

The Euro model continues to come in with a slower arrival time of the front…keeping Saturday unseasonably warm in the 80s and also puts central Indiana in a rain “train” Sunday.  We’re not jumping on this idea at the moment, but “if” this output verifies Sunday could be very wet.

MODEL_OUTPUT

Notice the stark contrast in rainfall output between the two models for Indianapolis on SUNDAY… from nothing to over one inch!  We just wanted to share part of the forecast process with you and plant the seed of a potential soggy Sunday.  It should be noted that both outputs would allow for several dry hours on Saturday.  Check back for updates and hope you enjoy the blog – Sean Ash

1 Comments

1

When you have such a wide variation between models what do you forecast? The GFS Model is moving the system through really quickly – where is the jet stream? Does it support this kind of movement? I think I would forecast a wet Saturday evening into Sunday afternoon. On the Euro Model it looks as though we here in Bloomington might get some heavy rain Sunday morning. Thanks for sharing.

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