Update On Severe Storm Potential WednesdayBy
With the exception of some anticipated isolated storms in southern Indiana this afternoon, much of the viewing area enjoyed a warm day with highs in the 80s.
We continue to monitor severe weather potential for Wednesday and are asking you to be weather aware with the potential for two rounds of storms. Severe storms in the Central Plains will congeal into a damaging wind complex this evening and beginning speeding toward the Ohio Valley. There was a needed upgrade to a High Risk west of us tonight due to the likelihood of wind damage.
The leading edge of this complex will near the Indiana/Illinois state line between 5-6am with damaging wind potential, and eventually impact the Indianapolis metro area by 8am. But it should be noted that this complex will be in a weakening state, so it’s difficult to say at this time how proficient it will be at producing severe wind gusts.
However we’re confident on areas of heavy rain that could lead to flooding and flash flooding early in the morning. The evolution of this feature will be the wild card to what we have to deal with Wednesday afternoon. If morning rain and clouds linger long enough they could keep the atmosphere stabilized and push the convective boundary/best instability toward the Ohio River.
But if the morning storm complex weakens quickly, then developing storms Wednesday afternoon will have an elevated risk to rotate and/or produce damaging wind and large hail. These are questions that can’t be answered at the moment and will require you to check in with Chuck Lofton and Nicole Misencik in the morning for the progression. Root for rain and clouds to last as long as possible if you don’t want severe storms to reform.
Notice the storm threats below indicate the elevated potential for tornadoes, damaging wind and large hail. This is all conditional on what happens early in the day. Less clouds = potential severe weather outbreak tomorrow.
After Wednesday evening, pleasant air spreads into the state and paves the way for beautiful conditions Thursday into the first half of Saturday. Computer models are hinting that our next batch of rain and storms pushes into the state by Saturday 8pm. This could change but we’re monitoring for updates.
Enjoy the evening and stay alert tomorrow – Sean Ash