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Jan
05

Some Snow Showers This Evening

By · January 5, 2013 at 3:06 pm

Latest Live Doppler 13 Radar analysis & hi-res mode data suggest a burst of snow showers (possibly mixed with graupel/ice pellets & some rain) to move through central Indiana between now and 7pm. Any accumulation would be localized & light.

Model sounding indicate a period of freezing drizzle is possible between after 10pm-into sunrise Sunday… this could cause some icy patches on roads. I’ll monitor this aspect of the forecast this evening, and have an update later.

Temps go in reverse Sunday. Starting near 32┬░ in the morning and falling into the mid 20s by 4pm cold air advection (CAA) takes charge. Light snow will blossom in the CAA, and linger into the early afternoon. A widespread dusting is “possible”, and subfreezing temps put slick roads in play Sunday evening.

Still expecting a brief January Thaw next week… though latest long-range data indicates core of the warmth arriving a day later. Low/mid 30s Monday & Tuesday, nearing 40 Wednesday & Thursday now looking WET (especially late)/raw in the upper 30s. ┬áThis is followed by 50+ next Friday despite a soaking rain.

Next weekend may prove to be above norm too, but the ultimate transition back to cold “may” carve out a storm across the Ohio Valley in the Jan. 15-17 time frame (give or take).

Below is an image of the 500mb anomaly heights on January 16th from the GFS model. The blue circles indicate lower than normal heights, or an area of colder air. The red circles on the east coast would be the warmer than normal air we experience later next week.

Sandwiched in between would be a place for cyclogenesis (storm formation) to occur…as the jet configures into a trough. WAY far out, but something to monitor over the next 10 days.

1 Comments

1

It’s always neat when you guys post the raw weather products with an explanation of what they mean. Of course, the pretty diagrams from TV are great, too.

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