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Nov
25

Slight Snow Chance Monday Night

By · November 25, 2012 at 7:20 pm

A layer of clouds overnight will likely keep lows from dropping much.  Expect morning lows between 30°-35°.  Conversely, a northerly wind undercutting varying amounts of cloud cover Monday will keep daytime highs in check.  Top temps tomorrow will be between 40°-46°.

Here’s the latest on a very weak weather system that will race through the Ohio Valley Monday night.

With not much moisture, a dry northerly wind, and the best lift along the Ohio River, there’s a very slim chance that the Indy metro area will see flurries and/or any snow showers.  Chances are better for Columbus/Bloomington, but not higher than 20-30 perc ent.  Seymour & Bedford (being closer to the best moisture/lift) have a 50/50 shot of a light dusting Monday night.

For now, the best timing for any white stuff appears to be 10pm Monday – 3am Tuesday.

Notice FutureTrak 13 showing quick clearing on Tuesday in the wake of this disturbance.  Make no mistake, the air mass overheard will be chilly…as evident of the unseasonably cold highs in the 30s despite a bright sky.

The Tuesday through Wednesday morning time frame will be the coldest of next week.  Air mass modification quickly occurs after midweek, and highs near 50° Thursday afternoon.  Next weekend looks unseasonably mild, but a tradeoff will be shower chances on Saturday.

It does appear that the month of December will begin on a rather mild note.  Long range ensemble/analog data suggests the wait for true winter cold will be until the second-half of the month.  Below is the 500mb (half-way up the atmosphere) height anomalies via the GFS & ECMWF models.  Positive anomalies typically correspond with warmer than normal conditions, and this is for the 8-10 day period that ends on December 5th (next Wednesday).

The GFS ensemble temperature mean departure for December 3 (next Monday) indicates potential of temperatures being 10°-15° above normal.

“If” these long range indicators verify, it’s “possible” that 60° warmth might return to Central Indiana.  Stay tuned.

Enjoy your week!

Sean Ash

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