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Oct
28

Halloween Weather Havoc?

By · October 28, 2013 at 1:00 pm

Computer models latched onto a potential wind machine impacting Halloween nearly a week ago. I’ve watched and waited to see if that trend would continue.

Morning models continue to show a rather robust low level wind field cranking across the Ohio Valley Thursday, in response to a deepening area of low pressure in the Great Lakes.

(click images below to enlarge)

NAM850MB_WIND GFS_850MB

“Modeled” wind fields around 5,000 feet are a very impressive 70mph+. Whether or not a line of low-topped storms or showers will tap into the low-level jet (LLJ) is to be determined…and hinges on atmospheric instability.

SVR_RISK

That’s the biggest forecast question at the moment, along with timing of rain.  Will clouds/rain keep the atmosphere stable?  To be determined, but for now there is a “risk” of severe wind gusts.

HALLOWEEN_STATS

Regardless of severe wind (58mph+)… a 30-40mph gradient wind (due to the strong low pressure system) is likely along with a good chance of rain at some point during Thursday.  Despite the rain and wind, this will be Central Indiana’s warmest Halloween since 2008.

HALLOWEEN_STATS_2

In a perfect world clouds and morning showers keep instability at bay and the severe “potential” never materializes.  Definitely stay tuned to the Skytrak13 weather team as we fine tune the timing and degree of instability in the days to come – Sean Ash

1 Comments

1

Thank you for this infographic and suammry. Just impressive! I can tell you really enjoy what you’re doing!

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