Did you feel the difference Saturday afternoon? Daytime highs were the warmest we’ve experienced since December 24th when it was in the 40s.
The 38° high in Indianapolis marks the first time above freezing since New Year’s Eve. Even warmer days are ahead.
Overnight areas of drizzle/flurries will move through central Indiana, and combined with near freezing temperatures puts slick spots in play by sunrise Sunday morning. A cold front will move through the viewing area between 10am-1pm… marked by a wind shift to the northwest, snow showers and falling temperatures.
Temperatures begin near 32° Sunday morning, but will finish in the mid 20s by sunset. Any left over moisture on roadways may freeze-up Sunday evening…we’ll keep tabs on this the next 18 hours.
The much advertised January Thaw is still in play next week… though the core of warmth appears to be delayed by a day. Monday morning will be our coldest start in the teens, and a temperature inversion (warm air over colder air below) will keep that day in the lower 30s. That same inversion may lead to a prolonged period of fog Tuesday/Wednesday. Friday is the warmest day of the 7day forecast, with highs in the 50s. Another byproduct of the warm up will be high rain chances. Trusted long-range models show healthy rain amounts for the Ohio Valley in the Thursday/Friday time frame. The image below (CLICK TO ENLARGE) is the GFS/ECMWF models by Saturday evening.
As you might imagine, the prolonged stretch above freezing and heavy rain will literally wash away our snowpack…as indicated in the images below centered on Saturday evening.
It appears this warm up might be Fool’s Gold. As I mentioned in my prior blow earlier this afternoon, a return to cold looks to take place after next weekend. That transition “may” carve out a storm in the Ohio Valley in the Jan 15-17 time frame (give or take a day). Below is an image of the 500mb anomaly heights on January 16th from the GFS model. The blue circles indicate lower than normal heights, or an area of colder air. The red circles on the east coast would be the warmer than normal air we experience later next week.
Sandwiched in between would be a place for cyclogenesis (storm formation) to occur…as the jet configures into a trough. WAY far out, but something to monitor over the next 10 days.
Have a great evening and thanks for reading the blog.