Foggy Start Monday

Another balmy December day in Central Indiana, despite the soggy start and thick cloud cover.  The blanket of clouds will keep temperatures steady in the upper 50s overnight.  As the air overhead saturates, areas of mist and patchy fog will develop.  Visibilities may drop low enough to cause some travel issues for the Monday morning commute, as evidenced by the snapshot below on Morse Reservoir.

After a foggy/misty start the low cloud deck will should thin enough for at least partial sunshine during the afternoon.  Since temperatures will already be near 60°, it won’t take much sun to allow temperatures to quickly rise to near record levels.  The air mass will support temperatures well over 70°, but again dependent on amount of sun.

For now we are still forecasting 70° for Indianapolis.  This would be a daily record high (69°/1982) and the first 70° December day in over ten years for the Capital City.  Below is a graph of the five warmest December days on record for Indianapolis.  It’s remarkable that only FIVE days, out of 4,342, in December have had high temperatures at or above 70° since 1871.  That’s only .12% of the time.  Truly rare occurrence “if” the forecast verifies.

The 7day starts at 70° and ends with highs in 30s this time next weekend.  We’re definitely on borrowed time in the spring warmth.  Monday night/Tuesday is our next “best” chance of rain and storms along an approaching cold front.  Though there is no frozen precipitation expected the next seven days… temperatures will gradually slide down to more normal levels.

I know it’s been a depressing beginning to the month for you snow lovers… especially following up last season’s snow drought.  However, the trusted European model (below left panel) shows a potential pattern shift around the 11th of the month with negative height anomalies (associated with colder than normal air).  Could this be temporary?  Will this actually happen?  Impossible to say, and I’m not getting my hopes up.  But let’s keep our eyes on the 10th-12th period more than a week from now.

Have a great evening and thanks for visiting the blog.

Sean Ash

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