Don’t let the temperatures in the 40s to near 50 degrees this hour fool you. Record warmth arrives this evening after sunset and after the passage of an impressive warm front.
This front is evident in southern Indiana where readings are well into the 60s. Temperatures surge into the 60s this evening after sunset to break daily record highs.
The showers and storms around Central Indiana now are non-severe but produce locally heavy rain and thunder. The threat for severe storms, primarily in the form of damaging wind, increases by 5pm and peaks before midnight.
Severe gusts over 65mph are possible and a few tornadoes can’t be ruled out either… especially west and southwest of Indianapolis where the highest probabilities of severe weather exist.
Latest hi-res model data shows “modeled” signatures around 6pm that look supercelluar in nature within a zone of maximized wind shear/instability. Again this would most likely be in western and southwestern Indiana.
It should also be noted that non-storm gusts impact the entire region and likely exceed 40mph at times. Short-term guidance is also looking onto the idea of heavy banded precipitation dropping 1-2″+ rain amounts in southeastern Indiana.
While we don’t envision widespread flooding issues, this would certainly cause significant ponding and slow travel.
Rain and strong storms exit the state by 2am and temperatures drop into the mid-40s Wednesday morning. 40s and morning sunshine tomorrow gives way to increasing clouds, mixed showers and temperatures falling into the 30s to finish.
You could call it the calm before the storm on this Groundhog Day in Indiana. The SkyTrak13 Weather Team is tracking a storm system that will impact a large part of the country bringing blizzard conditions and the threat for severe weather to parts of our state.
It is dry and mild out there right now.. It will be a windy day, with a few showers possible. The main area of storms will move across central Indiana from afternoon into early evening. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are possible. Highs will be near 60 degrees. The record high is 59 set back in 1911.
We get on the colder side of this weather system on Wednesday. Expect a colder day in the 30s, with a few rain and snow showers.
Thursday through Sunday is dry as we start yet another gradual warming trend. Highs will be in the 30s on Thursday and in the 40s on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures climb to near 50 degrees on Sunday.
The well advertised powerhouse storm continues to take shape in the southwestern U.S. this hour. You can identify the gist of its track by the southwest to northeast swath of winter storm warnings from Nevada to Upper Peninsula of Michigan.
Embedded within that area is a region of Blizzard Watches/Warning where the storm reaches its peak intensity in Nebraska and Iowa. Some areas of the central U.S. see over a foot of snow, but thankfully this occurs after the Iowa caucuses this evening.
Central Indiana will be on the warmer side of this potent storm. That warmth combined with a highly sheared atmosphere poses a risk of damaging wind and/or brief spin-ups Tuesday evening.
Please note that temperatures out the door tomorrow won’t resemble anything close to producing severe weather. In fact it will seasonably chilly in the upper 20s and lower 30s… and there’s a possibility of patchy freezing fog early in the day.
However, a late surge of warmth pushes temperatures to near record levels after 5pm. We believe the record high of 59 (set in 1911) Tuesday is in serious jeopardy. Either way you’ll notice a balminess to the air late tomorrow.
Storm initiation is expected in the 4-5pm hours and individual cells should rapidly congeals into bowing line segments… that up the ante for localized damaging wind gusts.
The air Tuesday won’t be very unstable but it doesn’t have to be based on extreme modeled wind shear values. Wind speeds at 5,000 feet are expected to eclipse 70mph and it won’t take much to transfer some of that wind energy to ground level. Even strong areas of showers can aid in producing damaging wind. Don’t be surprised if you hear little thunder tomorrow during the hours of 5pm and 12am Wednesday.
Much like December 23rd of last year we could spin-ups develop along the line segments to enhance the wind potential for localized damage. Please stay weather aware, download the freeSkytrak13 Weather App and frequent our website/blog for updates – Sean Ash
For the first time since 2013 Indianapolis has enjoyed consecutive 60 degree days during January. Very balmy conditions this evening before a cold front moves across the state before midnight. This front triggers a line of rain and marks a return to colder air to start the week.
Rain mostly ends before midnight and temperatures drop into the mid-30s for the bus stop and commute. Monday morning clouds give way to increasing sunshine tomorrow afternoon. Though not as warm as this weekend, daytime highs tomorrow creep into the mid and upper 50s… a good 10 degrees above normal.
We continue to bracket the hours between 4pm Tuesday and 12am Wednesday for severe wind potential. Temperatures begin chilly Tuesday morning in the lower 30s. A late surge into the 60s and a strong wind field associated with a strengthening storm system puts severe wind in play for Central/Southern Indiana.
A line or lines of rain/storms should develop as a cold front races across the state. Severe gusts or brief tornadoes will be possible until the front moves east. It should be noted this low end severe threat could decrease or increase based on the track of the storm system. Stay weather Tuesday/Tuesday night and expect windy conditions at the very least.
Much colder air and snow showers wrap around the backside of the storm system Wednesday. We’ll be seasonably cold for a few days before the air modifies heading into next weekend.
Long range ensemble data continues to show a strong signal for a wintry pattern developing in the Ohio Valley around the 9-10th of February. Other than that we can’t be more specific. But this does offer some hope for you snow lovers! Check back for updates please – Sean Ash
Another mild day is on tap with temperatures running near 20 degrees above normal. Temperatures have been holding steady in the mid 40s this morning. It will be a cloudy afternoon with a chance of a few showers this afternoon. Winds will be gusty at times, around 25 mph. Afternoon highs will climb into the mid 50s.
There is a better chance of a few showers this evening along the cold front. Any rain will move out of the area late this evening. Cooler air moves in behind the front with temperatures eventually dropping into mid 30s.
Monday will be a transitional day. The skies will slowly clear out to partly sunny by afternoon. It will be cooler but still well above average with highs in the upper 40s.
A deep area of low pressure will arrive on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely by late afternoon.
There is a low risk of severe thunderstorms south of I-70. Damaging winds will be the main threat although a few isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out. The Skytrak13 Weather Team will keep you updated. Keep checking back for the latest as this storm continues to evolve.
As the low pressure system moves out of the Great Lakes area late Tuesday night, cooler air will arrive on the back side of the system. A few light snow showers will be possible on Wednesday, although no accumulation is expected at this time.
The colder, more seasonal conditions will continue through the weekend.
It was an unseasonably mild day with temperatures running more than 20 degrees above average. Temperatures climbed into the upper 50s this afternoon, keeping the record of 65 degrees set back in 2013, safe.
Here is a viewer photo sent in by Susan Holbert of Brooks School Park in Fishers. She said the parking lot was full and the park was full of everyone starved for warm, fresh air. She said it was a glorious day! Agreed!
Winds out of the south this evening will keep temperatures mild. Overnight lows will only fall into the mid 40s.
There is a chance of a few showers during the day Sunday, as a cold front approaches. It will be breezy with winds gusting around 25 mph.
Afternoon highs will still climb more than 15 degrees above average, into the low 50s.
Showers will become likely by Sunday evening. Rain will taper off early Monday morning, with cooler air pushing in behind the front Monday morning. Temperatures will fall into the mid 30s.
Monday will a transitional day with mostly sunny skies by afternoon. It will be a bit cooler but still well above normal, in the upper 40s.
A strong storm system will move in on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely and some storms could be strong. The Skytrak13 Weather Team will keep you updated on the severe weather potential. Right now, the best chance of severe weather looks to be along the Ohio River Valley.
Much colder air will arrive behind this system, bringing the chance of a few snow showers on Wednesday.
The cold air will stick around through the weekend.
A decent warm up arrives for the weekend, feeling more like mid March rather than the end of January. It will start out mostly sunny this morning with clouds increasing later this afternoon. Winds will pick up out of the southwest today and it will be a bit breezy at times. Afternoon highs will soar into the low 50s.
It will be mostly cloudy this evening and it will continue to be mild. Overnight lows will fall into the low 40s.
Sunday will be cloudy and breezy with gusts around 25 mph. There is a chance of light rain during the afternoon with rain becoming likely by late day.
It will still be unseasonably mild, with highs in the low 50s.
Rain will taper off early Monday morning with a gradual clearing to mostly sunny skies. It will be a bit cooler but temperatures will still be running more than 10 degrees above average with highs in the upper 40s.
A strong storm system will move in on Tuesday and Wednesday. A deep low pressure system will track across central Indiana, keeping most of Indiana in the warm sector of the storm. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely by Tuesday afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with heavy rain likely. A few snow showers will be likely on the backside of the system early Wednesday. This system is still developing and we will keep you updated on its track and severe potential.
Much colder air will arrive behind the cold front on Wednesday and the cold air will stick around through next weekend.