Storms Roll In Wednesday

The storms have raced out of Central Indiana and the deeper we go into the day, the better it gets. We’ll be north side of a cool front which results in less humid air and a mainly sunny sky with seasonably warm highs in the mid-80s.

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Tomorrow, a different story. Look for a heightened risk of severe weather and flash flooding Wednesday into Thursday.  Though uncertainty on track, intensity, with many areas receiving an inch of rain with a swath 3″+ rainfall, widespread high wind  and some tornadoes could impact Central and Northern Indiana.  The area from Kokomo on north will be under a moderate risk of severe weather and Metro Indy will be under an enhanced risk of severe weather. We’ll be updating and fine tuning the forecast during the day on WTHR-TV and wthr.com.

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Overnight Storms and Milder Tuesday

The SkyTrak13 Weather Team tracked storms for about 7 hours on Monday evening.  There were about a dozen reports of trees down and winds were estimated near 60mph near Reynolds in NW Indiana.  Heavy rain was also an issue, with pockets of 2″+ estimated by radar.

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Late Monday night, the boundary triggering the storms was stuck across the central part of Indiana.  Storms will continue through the early part of Tuesday morning.  When the boundary moves south, so will the storms.  This should happen by 2am.  Most of Tuesday will be dry and won’t be as hot, with highs in the middle 80s.  We get some relief from the high heat and humidity, as the boundary or cold front sits to our south.

PLANNER

That same boundary/front will lift back north on Wednesday.  It will again be the trigger for rain and storms.  Heavy rain, flash flooding, damaging winds will be the severe weather threats  with several complexes of storms.  We will keep you updated on the timing and the severe threat.

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Heat is back for Friday and the weekend.

Late Monday Evening Update

The SkyTrak13 Weather Team continues to track a few storms Monday evening.  Right now we are forecasting the storms to continue over the next couple of hours.

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Some storms earlier Monday evening were severe and there were reports of winds near 60mph north of Lafayette.  There were several reports of trees down near Cicero and Brookston too.

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From the radar rainfall estimation, you can see where the storms were Monday evening.  There were a few pockets of 2″+ totals.

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There will be another update around 11pm, with the overnight storm potential.

Monday Evening Storms Update

We continue to track a line of storms moving across the northern third of Indiana.  The storms have reached severe limits, with several reports of trees down near Brookston.  Winds were estimated near 60mph.  If the line of storms holds together, it is forecast to be near Indianapolis by 8pm.  We will keep you updated at the progress of the line of storms this evening.

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A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 11pm for most of central Indiana.

WATCH

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 11pm

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for the northern half of Indiana until 11pm Monday.  This does include most of central Indiana.

WATCH

Storms developed across northern Indiana Monday afternoon.  This line is forecast to move south over the next few hours.  Damaging winds and heavy rain will be the biggest threats.  Here is the latest timeline with FutureTrak13.

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The storms are developing along a cold front.  That front will be south of central Indiana on Tuesday.  Most of the day will be dry and it won’t be as hot.  Highs are forecast in the middle 80s on Tuesday.

PLANNER

The front lifts back north for Wednesday.  There will be several complexes of storms possible Wednesday through early Thursday.  We are also again under the threat for severe weather.

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We will keep you updated on that risk for severe weather and the timing of those complexes of storms.  Heat will be the story for the end of the week and the weekend.

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Some Severe Storms Possible Later Today

The Muggy Meter reaches oppressive humidity levels today as tropical moisture blankets Central Indiana.  This results in heat indices between 95 to 100 degrees combined with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s… good for Indy’s hottest day of the year if temperatures eclipse 92 degrees.

PLANNER HEAT INDEX FORECAST MUGGY METER

Though much of today is rain-free and hot, widely scattered storms develop this evening and some may reach severe limits before midnight.  Damaging wind and locally heavy rainfall are the main threats overnight.

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We’ll be north side of a cool front Tuesday which results in less humid air and a mainly sunny sky with seasonably warm highs in the mid-80s.  Based on lower humidity and abundant sunshine… tomorrow is our pick of the week to be outside.

TUESDAY JET STREAM

Modeled ingredients for mid-week advertise a heightened risk of severe weather and flash flooding Wednesday into Thursday.  Though uncertainty on track, intensity, and coverage remains… data sets suggest a swath 3″+ rainfall, widespread high wind (greater than 70mph) and some tornadoes could impact Central and Northern Indiana.

MID WEEK SPC

This could certainly change and as noted there’s a great deal on specifics at this time.  Please check back frequently for updated forecasts on what could be a high impact weather event – Sean Ash

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Hot & Humid Today… Storm Chances Increase

Highs will reach the low 90s today with partly cloudy skies. It will be humid, with storm chances developing late in the afternoon into the evening.

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Isolated activity is expected, and some storms could be strong to severe with damaging wind, and very heavy rain.

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Tonight we should dry out, with just a few showers or storms possible by morning as temps drop to the upper 60s.

 

Tuesday a few morning showers or storms are possible, as skies become partly cloudy with highs in the mid 80s.

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We’re watching Wednesday and Thursday closely as more showers and storms are set to return, and very heavy rain will be something we will monitor as well as the risk for severe weather on Wednesday.

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By the weekend we’re back to highs close to the 90 degree mark.

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Stormy Mid-Week Set Up

Happy Father’s Day! Seasonably hot conditions to wrap up the weekend with highs near 90 degrees and heat indices in the low to mid 90s.  Very isolated showers developed late this afternoon but they’ll quickly fade around sunset.

MONDAY

Monday has the potential to be our hottest day of the year thus far with highs in the lower to mid-90s.  We’re going to mention a slight chance of thunderstorms late in the day, but not many cities will see much.

The bigger tomorrow will be the increasing Muggy Meter with oppressive levels of humidity.  A mid-week moisture surge brings a risk of flash flooding and severe storms.

MUGGY METER SPC

Though isolated… a few strong or severe are in play Monday evening into predawn hours of Tuesday.  At this point much of Tuesday should be dry.

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The weather pattern gets more interesting and complicated the middle of the week.  The upper level high pressure that kept us quiet this weekend is now beginning to move toward the southwestern U.S.

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Eventually we’ll begin to see storms developing on the edge of its hot dome and get pushed southeastward into the Ohio Valley.  Riding the northwest flow aloft these storm clusters are known as “ridge riders” and the belt of storms around the upper ridge is sometimes referred to as “ring of fire.”

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At this point exact timing and location remain uncertain, but storms do appear likely both Wednesday and Thursday.  You’ll need to be weather aware with the potential for multiple rounds of heavy storms, flash flooding and severe weather.  Check back frequently for updates – Sean Ash

RAIN CHANCES 7DAY

 

Hot Father’s Day

Happy Father’s Day! It will be a hot and hazy Father’s Day with temperatures climbing into the low 90s. Winds will be out of the southwest, allowing moist air to return. Humidity will be on the rise.

TODAY PLANNER TODAYS HIGHS

An Air Quality Alert remains in effect through Monday.

AIR QUALITY

It will be mostly clear and mild this evening with a low in the mid 60s.

Monday will be breezy and hotter yet with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s.

MONDAY PLANNER

Heat indices will be in the upper 90s.

HEAT INDEX MONDAY

A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon.

A cold front will start to push in Monday night. Scattered thunderstorms will develop along the front, moving from northern Indiana to southern Indiana by Tuesday morning.

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There is a chance that some storms could be strong to severe, with the main threats being damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

RISK

A gradual clearing arrives Tuesday afternoon with partly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 80s.

Cooler air returns for the rest of the work week, behind the front.

An unsettled pattern will remain in place with chances of rain. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday and Thursday. Storms on Wednesday could be strong to severe.

TUESDAY WEDN RISK

Right now, the weekend looks dry and warmer.

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Heat Sticks Around

It has been a hot and hazy day with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 80s.

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It will be a clear and quiet evening with temperature only falling into the mid 70s tonight and down into the mid 60s Sunday morning.

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Father’s Day will be hot and a bit more humid with highs in the low 90s.

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The first day of summer arrives officially at 6:34pm and it will feel like it. Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 90s.

monday highs

The ridge of high pressure will start breaking down Monday evening. A cold front will push in late Monday night. It will trigger some showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday morning.

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Some storms could be strong to severe with the main threats being damaging winds.

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Tuesday will still be warm with highs in the mid 80s.

Cooler air will start to arrive on Wednesday, sticking around through the end of the work week.

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