Beautiful Day

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It is another beautiful morning in Indiana and we can look for a great day with the humidity still lower than the oppressive mess we experienced last week. Don’t rule out an isolated shower but most areas stay dry and the high tops out around 83 degrees.

The most recent computer guidance keeps most showers in Southern Indiana for today, tonight and tomorrow. it’s still possible that a thunderstorm or two could creep into the Metro area.

High temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 70s. Keep in mind that the average high temperature for this time of year is 84 degrees.

We’ll warm back up to near average conditions for the weekend with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Drier conditions arrive back in the forecast by Friday, just in time to start the Indiana State Fair.

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Friday Forecast and Weekend Preview

We are actually counting dry days in a row.  We have had 3 and we are forecasting a couple more.  Right now the forecast is dry through the start of the weekend.

It will be a mainly clear and mild night across central Indiana, with lows in the lower and middle 60s.  We are forecasting a bit more heat and humidity for the weekend and much of next week.

There will be a mix of sun and clouds on Friday, with highs in the middle 80s.

DAYPART HIGHS

Highs are forecast upper 80s this weekend.  Right now we have most of Saturday dry, with a chance for a stray storm Saturday night.  There is a chance for a few storms on Sunday, but we are not forecasting an all day rain.  If you are going to the Brickyard 400 or have other outdoor plans on Sunday, check back for updates.  We will fine tune the timing of those Sunday storm chances.

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A good part of next week will be hot and humid, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s Monday through Thursday.  We will be dodging a few storms too.  A few are possible on Monday and Tuesday, with more storm coverage expected Wednesday and Thursday.

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Heat and More Storms in the Weekend Forecast

Storms with heavy rain, lightning and damaging winds moved through central Indiana late Friday.  These storms brought 3-5 inches of rain and dangerous flash flooding.  Water may still be rising overnight and flooding is hard to see at night.  It is a good idea to take extra care when you travel Friday night through early Saturday.  Our rivers will remain high and under flood warnings for several days.

There will some dry hours on Saturday, as the heat builds.  High temperatures will be in the range of 90-95 and heat index values will be 100-110.  A heat advisory is in effect for the state on Saturday.

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We are expecting some dry hours, but a few storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening.  Any storm that develops may contain more heavy rain.  If you have outdoor plans, you can check Live Doppler 13 Radar on your phone with the SkyTrak13 Weather app.  There will be some dry hours on Sunday too, with highs in the lower and middle 90s.  More scattered storms are possible later in the day.  There is a slight risk for severe weather on Sunday.  Here is the latest timing of those storm chances this weekend.  There will be updates to the timing and placement of the storms so check back for updates.

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RISK 7DAY

The storm chances will end early Monday.  Right now we have a few dry days in the forecast for next week.  We hope this dry pattern materializes.  This July is now the 3rd wettest on record, with over 11 inches of rain in Indianapolis.

Update On Severe Weather Monday

Hazy and humid conditions for most of the night as we monitor a severe storm complex over Minnesota and Wisconsin.  This features dives southeastward overnight and arrives in Indiana by 10am.  These storms likely intensify by midday to pose a severe weather risk for much of the viewing area into Monday afternoon.

RADAR PLANNER TONIGHT PLANNER MONDAY

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On a scale of 1 (low risk) to 4 (extreme risk) for severe weather… all of Central Indiana is in a Zone of 3 or what we label “high” risk.  This essentially means there’s a 45% probability, which is uncommon, of severe weather within any storm on radar tomorrow.   Have a way to get watches, warnings, radar and updated weather information.

SPC PROBABILITY

After the initial complex it’s uncertain whether or not isolated storms develop during peak heating late day heating… but if they do they’ll likely be supercells capable of producing large hail and tornadoes.

A second complex develops late evening over northern Illinois and looks to impact the region between 10pm Monday and 4am Tuesday with severe wind and flash flooding rainfall.  Due to saturated ground trees are more susceptible to being blown over which ups the ante for power outages.  We’re recommending you charge up phones, weather radios, and generators in the event this verifies.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH RAIN POTENTIAL

Unfortunately the threshold for flash flooding is rather due to highly saturated ground.  In fact latest Flash Flood Guidance suggests just 1″ in an hour or 1.5-2″ in 3 hours will be enough to cause flash flooding.  Those numbers are easily achievable given the highly moist atmosphere and potential for multiple storm clusters.  Rainfall in the 2″ to locally 5″+ range within 24 hours will result in more flash flooding by Tuesday morning.

STORM RISKS HEADLINES 2 SAFETY TIPS

 

Dry Time and Weekend Outlook

Rain chances will linger through late afternoon.  If you have Friday evening plans, the rain will be gone and there will be a few breaks in the clouds.  Evening temperatures will be in the 70s.  Overnight temperatures will be in the lower and middle 60s.  A few clouds and patchy fog are possible through early Saturday.

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Saturday will be dry, with a mix of clouds and sun.  Highs are forecast in the lower and middle 80s.  There will be a few complexes of storms to watch later Saturday and Sunday.  Right now Saturday will be the drier day this weekend.  Storms are possible later Saturday night and early Sunday and again Sunday afternoon and evening.  A few storms may reach severe limits on Sunday and Monday, as our unsettled weather pattern continues.

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Highs will be in the middle and upper 80s through the middle part of next week.  If you are looking ahead, there will be scattered storms on Monday and then some drier weather expected most of Tuesday into Wednesday.  Storm chances return later Wednesday and Thursday.

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Friday Storm Chances and Weekend Preview

The break from the wet weather will last through early Friday morning.  Temperatures overnight will be in the lower and middle 60s.
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By 7am Friday, we will be tracking the next round of rain.  Rain and a few storms are in the Friday forecast.  Highs will be in the range of 75-80 degrees.  The rain chances will end Friday night and this will set us up for some dry weather on Saturday.  Here is the latest timeline with FutureTrak13.
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Expect a mix of clouds and sun and highs in the 80s on Saturday.  Saturday will be the drier day this weekend.
Right now we are forecasting 2 rounds of storms on Sunday.  The first will be early Sunday morning.  More scattered storms develop late Sunday.  There will be a few dry hours in the middle.  Highs on Sunday are forecast in the range of 85-90 degrees.
The overall weather pattern stays warm, humid and unsettled with scattered storm chances through the middle part of next week.
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UPDATE: Flash Flooding Central Indiana

Heavy rain through Central Indiana has led to wide spread flooding and the issuance of a Flash Flood Warning.  This warning is in effect until 8pm this evening.  Use caution when travelling on roadways today, as there have already been many reports of flooding on the streets.

Flash Flood WEATHERBUG

Rain will continue into the early evening as this system continues to push southeast.  Heavy rain will continue to impact Central Indiana for the next several hours and rain rates will continue to be near 1-2″ per hours in the heaviest pockets.

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Viewer photos of the flooding have begun to come in:

FARLEY FLOOD

Photo above courtesy of Stacia Kikendall in the Farley neighborhood near Speedway.INDY FLOODING

Photo above courtesy of Shelley Young in Indianapolis

 

 

 

 

Holiday Weekend Forecast

The weather pattern will change just in time for the 4th of July.  There will still be some lingering rain through Friday evening especially south of Indianapolis.  A gradual clearing trend will arrive overnight, with lows in the lower and middle 60s.

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A few clouds will linger across the southern half of the state through early Saturday, but mostly sunny skies are in the forecast for Saturday afternoon.  Highs will be in the lower 80s.

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We are expecting mainly clear skies for fireworks and the Rolling Stones concert Saturday evening.  Sunset is at 9:16, with temperatures in the lower and middle 70s through midnight.

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The Sunday forecast includes a mix of sun and clouds.  Highs will be in the lower and middle 80s on Sunday and in the middle 80s on Monday.  The dry pattern will last through Monday.

Rain and storms return on Tuesday and the weather pattern stays a bit unsettled Wednesday through Friday.  This will mean more clouds and more rain chances.

Have a happy and safe holiday weekend.

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Soggy Set Up To Start The Weekend

A few splash and dash showers are possible this evening… but much of the central part of the state remains dry.  We’ll monitor the southwestern corner of the state closely as storms in southern Illinois continue to increase and spread southeastward.  Sullivan, Greene and Lawrence counties are under a Severe T’Storm Watch until 1am.

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Additional scattered heavy showers and storms are possible going into Friday morning.  We also anticipate more dry hours tomorrow before a low pressure begins to intensify along the Ohio River.  As this happens rain and storms will increase across Central Indiana… becoming widespread by sunset and dropping locally heavy rain amounts.


 

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Friday night into Saturday morning will be wet and breezy as this system continues to intensify heading into Ohio.  A stiff northeasterly wind wrapping as the center of the low will make for blustery conditions Saturday morning.  Latest model trends are for a slower departure of this system and I’m leaning toward a wetter solution overall to Saturday.

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We’re still targeting Sunday as the best day of the 7 day forecast… but it also includes an chance of rain heading toward sunset.  Stay weather aware the next 24-36 hours – Sean Ash

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Wettest Month In A Year And More Rain On The Way

You don’t need me to tell you that’s it’s been a wet June thus far.  In fact, the early morning rainfall from heavy storms pushed Indianapolis’ monthly rainfall above 6″.  This is more than 2″ above the June monthly average and marks the wettest month in the city since last June when just over 7″ fell.

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Even higher totals occurred last night in west central Indiana where 3″+ dropped in parts of Vermillion, Parke and Putnam counties.  At this point we only widely scattered showers and storms this evening, but are monitoring conditions in southwestern Illinois/northern Missouri for storm initiation.  These storms would more likely have a higher impact on the southern half of Indiana and possibly produce some locally severe wind within the yellow shaded zone of the severe weather risk map.

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Low pressure strengthening across the Ohio Valley Friday promises to deliver a rather wet and stormy stretch heading into the weekend.  Showers and locally heavy storms increase during the day tomorrow.  Much like this evening, cities in far southern Indiana stand the highest chance of severe storms where temperatures will be a bit warmer than the mid-70s over much of the viewing area.

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We’ll be on the backside of this system early Saturday, but still under its damp and breezy influence.  A stiff northeasterly wind undercutting clouds and rain makes for an unpleasant start to the weekend.  But conditions should improve as the low moves away and this paves the way for the best day of the 7 day forecast on Sunday.  Comfortably cool lows in the 50s are followed by sunshine and 70s to finish the weekend.  By that time we’ll have earned it too!  Check back for updates – Sean Ash

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