Update On Severe Weather Monday

Hazy and humid conditions for most of the night as we monitor a severe storm complex over Minnesota and Wisconsin.  This features dives southeastward overnight and arrives in Indiana by 10am.  These storms likely intensify by midday to pose a severe weather risk for much of the viewing area into Monday afternoon.

RADAR PLANNER TONIGHT PLANNER MONDAY

HEADLINES RPM MONDAY 12PM RPM MONDAY 2PM RPM MONDAY 5PM

On a scale of 1 (low risk) to 4 (extreme risk) for severe weather… all of Central Indiana is in a Zone of 3 or what we label “high” risk.  This essentially means there’s a 45% probability, which is uncommon, of severe weather within any storm on radar tomorrow.   Have a way to get watches, warnings, radar and updated weather information.

SPC PROBABILITY

After the initial complex it’s uncertain whether or not isolated storms develop during peak heating late day heating… but if they do they’ll likely be supercells capable of producing large hail and tornadoes.

A second complex develops late evening over northern Illinois and looks to impact the region between 10pm Monday and 4am Tuesday with severe wind and flash flooding rainfall.  Due to saturated ground trees are more susceptible to being blown over which ups the ante for power outages.  We’re recommending you charge up phones, weather radios, and generators in the event this verifies.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH RAIN POTENTIAL

Unfortunately the threshold for flash flooding is rather due to highly saturated ground.  In fact latest Flash Flood Guidance suggests just 1″ in an hour or 1.5-2″ in 3 hours will be enough to cause flash flooding.  Those numbers are easily achievable given the highly moist atmosphere and potential for multiple storm clusters.  Rainfall in the 2″ to locally 5″+ range within 24 hours will result in more flash flooding by Tuesday morning.

STORM RISKS HEADLINES 2 SAFETY TIPS

 

Dry Time and Weekend Outlook

Rain chances will linger through late afternoon.  If you have Friday evening plans, the rain will be gone and there will be a few breaks in the clouds.  Evening temperatures will be in the 70s.  Overnight temperatures will be in the lower and middle 60s.  A few clouds and patchy fog are possible through early Saturday.

RPM1 RPM2 RPM3

lows

Saturday will be dry, with a mix of clouds and sun.  Highs are forecast in the lower and middle 80s.  There will be a few complexes of storms to watch later Saturday and Sunday.  Right now Saturday will be the drier day this weekend.  Storms are possible later Saturday night and early Sunday and again Sunday afternoon and evening.  A few storms may reach severe limits on Sunday and Monday, as our unsettled weather pattern continues.

planner RPM4 RPM5 RPM6 RPM7

Highs will be in the middle and upper 80s through the middle part of next week.  If you are looking ahead, there will be scattered storms on Monday and then some drier weather expected most of Tuesday into Wednesday.  Storm chances return later Wednesday and Thursday.

7DAY

Friday Storm Chances and Weekend Preview

The break from the wet weather will last through early Friday morning.  Temperatures overnight will be in the lower and middle 60s.
PLANNER
By 7am Friday, we will be tracking the next round of rain.  Rain and a few storms are in the Friday forecast.  Highs will be in the range of 75-80 degrees.  The rain chances will end Friday night and this will set us up for some dry weather on Saturday.  Here is the latest timeline with FutureTrak13.
RPM RPM1 RPM2
RPM3 RPM4 RPM5
Expect a mix of clouds and sun and highs in the 80s on Saturday.  Saturday will be the drier day this weekend.
Right now we are forecasting 2 rounds of storms on Sunday.  The first will be early Sunday morning.  More scattered storms develop late Sunday.  There will be a few dry hours in the middle.  Highs on Sunday are forecast in the range of 85-90 degrees.
The overall weather pattern stays warm, humid and unsettled with scattered storm chances through the middle part of next week.
7DAY

UPDATE: Flash Flooding Central Indiana

Heavy rain through Central Indiana has led to wide spread flooding and the issuance of a Flash Flood Warning.  This warning is in effect until 8pm this evening.  Use caution when travelling on roadways today, as there have already been many reports of flooding on the streets.

Flash Flood WEATHERBUG

Rain will continue into the early evening as this system continues to push southeast.  Heavy rain will continue to impact Central Indiana for the next several hours and rain rates will continue to be near 1-2″ per hours in the heaviest pockets.

RADAR

Viewer photos of the flooding have begun to come in:

FARLEY FLOOD

Photo above courtesy of Stacia Kikendall in the Farley neighborhood near Speedway.INDY FLOODING

Photo above courtesy of Shelley Young in Indianapolis

 

 

 

 

Holiday Weekend Forecast

The weather pattern will change just in time for the 4th of July.  There will still be some lingering rain through Friday evening especially south of Indianapolis.  A gradual clearing trend will arrive overnight, with lows in the lower and middle 60s.

rpm rpm1 RPM2 RPM3

A few clouds will linger across the southern half of the state through early Saturday, but mostly sunny skies are in the forecast for Saturday afternoon.  Highs will be in the lower 80s.

4TH

We are expecting mainly clear skies for fireworks and the Rolling Stones concert Saturday evening.  Sunset is at 9:16, with temperatures in the lower and middle 70s through midnight.

fireworks

The Sunday forecast includes a mix of sun and clouds.  Highs will be in the lower and middle 80s on Sunday and in the middle 80s on Monday.  The dry pattern will last through Monday.

Rain and storms return on Tuesday and the weather pattern stays a bit unsettled Wednesday through Friday.  This will mean more clouds and more rain chances.

Have a happy and safe holiday weekend.

7DAY

Soggy Set Up To Start The Weekend

A few splash and dash showers are possible this evening… but much of the central part of the state remains dry.  We’ll monitor the southwestern corner of the state closely as storms in southern Illinois continue to increase and spread southeastward.  Sullivan, Greene and Lawrence counties are under a Severe T’Storm Watch until 1am.

WATCH WATCH 2 HRRR 10PM HRRR 1AM HRRR 8AM

Additional scattered heavy showers and storms are possible going into Friday morning.  We also anticipate more dry hours tomorrow before a low pressure begins to intensify along the Ohio River.  As this happens rain and storms will increase across Central Indiana… becoming widespread by sunset and dropping locally heavy rain amounts.


 

PLANNER FRIDAY RPM FRIDAY 5PM RPM FRIDAY 7PM

Friday night into Saturday morning will be wet and breezy as this system continues to intensify heading into Ohio.  A stiff northeasterly wind wrapping as the center of the low will make for blustery conditions Saturday morning.  Latest model trends are for a slower departure of this system and I’m leaning toward a wetter solution overall to Saturday.

RPM FRIDAY 11PM RPM SATURDAY 5AM RPM SATURDAY 8AM RPM SATURDAY 4PM RPM RAIN MODEL RAIN

We’re still targeting Sunday as the best day of the 7 day forecast… but it also includes an chance of rain heading toward sunset.  Stay weather aware the next 24-36 hours – Sean Ash

7DAY

Wettest Month In A Year And More Rain On The Way

You don’t need me to tell you that’s it’s been a wet June thus far.  In fact, the early morning rainfall from heavy storms pushed Indianapolis’ monthly rainfall above 6″.  This is more than 2″ above the June monthly average and marks the wettest month in the city since last June when just over 7″ fell.

RAIN AMOUNTS JUNE STATS MODEL RAIN HEADLINES

 


Even higher totals occurred last night in west central Indiana where 3″+ dropped in parts of Vermillion, Parke and Putnam counties.  At this point we only widely scattered showers and storms this evening, but are monitoring conditions in southwestern Illinois/northern Missouri for storm initiation.  These storms would more likely have a higher impact on the southern half of Indiana and possibly produce some locally severe wind within the yellow shaded zone of the severe weather risk map.

VIS 1KM SPC DAY 1 HRRR 12AM HRRR 4AM PLANNER FRIDAY

Low pressure strengthening across the Ohio Valley Friday promises to deliver a rather wet and stormy stretch heading into the weekend.  Showers and locally heavy storms increase during the day tomorrow.  Much like this evening, cities in far southern Indiana stand the highest chance of severe storms where temperatures will be a bit warmer than the mid-70s over much of the viewing area.

RPM SATURDAY 6AM RPM SATURDAY 5PM PLANNER SATURDAY

We’ll be on the backside of this system early Saturday, but still under its damp and breezy influence.  A stiff northeasterly wind undercutting clouds and rain makes for an unpleasant start to the weekend.  But conditions should improve as the low moves away and this paves the way for the best day of the 7 day forecast on Sunday.  Comfortably cool lows in the 50s are followed by sunshine and 70s to finish the weekend.  By that time we’ll have earned it too!  Check back for updates – Sean Ash

RPM SUNDAY 6AM RPM SUNDAY 11AM PLANNER SUNDAY 7DAY

Weather Pattern Change

The weather pattern has settled down now that a cold front is moving through Indiana. Heavy rain dotted parts of Northwest Indiana earlier this morning, but for the most part, it has been dry in the Metro area.

Daypart

Today, winds out of the northwest put a cap on our temperatures so our highs today and for the rest of the week will slowly go down. By the weekend our highs will top out in the 70s and today and tomorrow will be mainly dry. Look for another chance for storms both Thursday and Friday.

The weekend will provide us with a chance for rain and thunderstorms Saturday but Sunday and Monday will be dry and nice. The jet stream next week keeps us very mild.

extended

Friday Night Rain Update

Heavy rain will continue to fall across the southern half of Indiana Friday night.  We are forecasting an end to the steady rain Saturday morning.

RPM rpm1 RPM2

The back of edge of this weather system will be close enough to central Indiana for a few showers on Saturday.  The best chance for those spotty rain chances will be across the eastern and southeastern sections of the state.  A drier weather pattern arrives, with some clearing late in the day Saturday.  This won’t last long.  There will be a complex of storms moving across Illinois Saturday night.  If that complex holds together, there will be a few showers or storms late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.  We are still forecasting more dry weather than wet weather on Father’s Day, with highs 85-90 degrees.

RPM3 RPM4 RPM5

What is left of that round of storms will be a boundary in the atmosphere and that will be the trigger for a few scattered storms on Sunday afternoon.  Right now we are under a slight risk for severe weather, but the latest analysis has that boundary south of central Indiana.  It is something we will watch closely.

rpm6 CONVECTIVE 7DAY

 

Watch Canceled But Spotty Storms Remain Possible Tonight

Scattered showers and locally heavy storms remain in play overnight as another upper disturbance moves across the state.

MUGGY METER RPM TODAY 9PM RPM TODAY 11PM

The Muggy Meter remains in the oppressive range with tropical dewpoints at or above 70 degrees.

Monday looks to be hotter area wide with the main focal point for storms lifting back into far northern Indiana.  Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s with heat indices soaring well into the 90s.  Strong to severe storms are possible in the afternoon, but more likely Monday night as the front begins to sag southward.

PLANNER TONIGHT RPM MONDAY 8AM RPM MONDAY 4PM SPC DAY 2 PLANNER MONDAY RPM TUESDAY 7AM RPM TUESDAY 8[M

Tropical moisture, daytime heating, multiple upper air disturbances and a stalled front produce daily chances of heavy storms.  Computer model guidance suggest widespread 3″+ rainfall will be likely by the end of the week… with locally higher amounts in pockets of storms between now and then.

PATTERN RAIN

Some of this rain will be courtesy of the remnants of a landfalling tropical system that is projected to follow around the hot dome in the southeastern U.S.  If this verifies, beneficial rainfall will be likely in the Ohio River Valley… an area that’s been abnormally dry recently.  Stay tuned for updates.

EURO RAIN GFS RAIN 7DAY

If you have the free SkyTrak13 Weather App you can check live Doppler 13 radar whenever you’d like to help decide your outdoor plans.