70s in November

70s in November.  We will end up with four 70 degree days in a row this week.  It started on Monday.

Monday night will be mostly clear, with lows in the 40s.  Patchy dense fog is possible early Tuesday morning.  Any fog that does develop will lift quickly.  Tuesday will be sunny and warm, with highs in the middle 70s.

TONIGHT PLANNER HIGHS

We are forecasting near record warmth Tuesday through Thursday.  Right now we have 75 for Tuesday, 76 for Wednesday and 75 for Thursday.  Here are the records for those three days.

Tuesday:  77 in 2003

Wednesday:  78 in 2003

Thursday:  76 in 1978

Our weather pattern changes Thursday night, as a weather system arrives.  This system will bring rain and a few storms to central Indiana Thursday night through early Friday.  Cooler air returns too.  Highs will be in the 50s by the weekend.

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Heavy Rain On The Way

What a fantastic fall day in Central Indiana!  Hope you had a chance to get out and enjoy the autumn color as leaves rapidly diminish the next 2-4 days due to steady/strengthening wind.

TEMPS RAIN STATS RAIN MONTHLY RAINFALL DEPARTURE

It’s been well documented that this is the driest October in over 50 years… thus far.  Rainfall departures since October 1st exceed 2″ and since September 1st it stretches to 3-4″+ below normal rain.  As a result much of Indiana is in abnormally dry conditions with the southern of the state labeled as “Moderate Drought” conditions.  Thankfully the remnant moisture of Hurricane Patricia, a coastal low and an upper storm are just what the doctor ordered for the parched landscape in the Ohio Valley.

DROUGHT SURFACE PLANNER TUESDAY

The wettest stretch of the month begins with showers as early as sunrise Tuesday.  Greatest rain chances tomorrow morning will be along and south of I-70.  By the time kids get off the bus stop Tuesday afternoon it will likely be raining area wide, and some of the rain later tomorrow and especially tomorrow night will be heavy.

HEADLINES MODEL GUIDANCE RPM TUESDAY 5AM RPM TUESDAY 12PM RPM TUESDAY 5PM RPM TUESDAY 9PM

The steadiest and heaviest falls between 4pm Tuesday and 5am Wednesday.  That’s when the bulk of the 1-2″+ amounts occur.  Latest hi-resolution guidance pegs the southern half of the state with the best chance of seeing over 2″ rain amounts.  Either way… this is welcomed news.

RPM WEDNESDAY 8AM RAINFALL RAINFALL SOUTH RAINFALL METRO RAINFALL NORTH

By midday Wednesday rain will be scattered but the wind begins to increase.  We’re expecting gusts to near 35mph both Wednesday and Thursday as a storm intensifies over the Great Lakes.  As this system departs we’ll have a great Friday with sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 50s.  It’s still several days out and could very possibly change… but we’ve added shower chances to Halloween weekend and we’ll continue to update in the days ahead.

WIND SET UP 7DAY

Another friendly reminder that Daylight Saving Time ends this Sunday at 2am when we move clocks back one hour.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

Sun Today, Rain Tomorrow

It is a typical crisp and cool fall morning in Indiana today, but changes are on the way. Look for today to be the day to rake leaves if you want to get them out of the lawn before the rain comes. Watch for increasing cloudiness later today and the rain to move in late tonight.

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As of now it’s the 5th driest October for Indianapolis.  But thanks to the remnant moisture of Hurricane Patricia interacting with an upper storm later this week, we’ll see a wet stretch beginning Tuesday that delivers 1-2″ rainfall before this storm departs Thursday.

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Look for really windy conditions to knock off the rest of the leaves Tuesday and Wednesday. Gusts over 40mph will be possible between Tuesday afternoon and Friday morning.  Calmer, brighter conditions arrive just in time for next weekend as high pressure spreads out across the Ohio Valley.

So far, Halloween looks pretty good for the trick or treaters with temperatures in the lower 50s around the 6:44pm sunset next Saturday.  Also a early, friendly reminder that Daylight Saving Time ends next Sunday at 2am when we move clocks back one hour.

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Feeling More Like October

Now this is more like early October.  The average high for this date is 66 and the average low is 45.  We will be close to the numbers today and Wednesday.

It has been a breezy day, with a few clouds.  Those winds diminish after sunset and the skies will clear.  This is the set-up for a chilly start to Wednesday.  Morning temperatures will be in the lower and middle 40s, with highs near 65 degrees on Wednesday afternoon.  There is lots of sun in Wednesday forecast.

LOWS PLANNER HIGHS

Thursday will be mostly sunny and a bit warmer, with highs near 70 degrees.

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We are tracking another cold front for Thursday night and early Friday.  This front will bring a few showers to the area Thursday night and early Friday.

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We will feel the impact of that front on Friday afternoon, with highs only on the lower 60s.

The coldest air of the season arrives this weekend, with lows in the 30 and highs in the 50s.  It will be cold enough for patchy frost on Saturday morning and a more widespread frost on Sunday morning.

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Sunshine To Shower Chances This Weekend?

Sunshine and unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures highlight the forecast the next 24 hours.  We’ll climb into the 80s again today and tomorrow with rather comfortable evenings and overnight.

TEMPS PLANNER EVENING LOWS TONIGHT PLANNER THURSDAY

Lows drop back into the 50s tonight with a rapid rise tomorrow into the 80s.  We’ve been monitoring a disturbance near the east coast for potential local impact.  Latest guidance suggests the easterly flow off the Atlantic Ocean likely brings an increase in cloud cover Friday and Saturday… and possibly shower chances too.

HIGHS TOMORROW RPM THURSDAY 4PM RPM FRIDAY 4PM RPM SATURDAY 5AM RPM SATURDAY 12PM RAIN POTENTIAL

For now we’re keeping the forecast dry for Operation Football and the weekend, but please note if this trends continue there may be rain for some areas to start the weekend.  Check back for updates as this could impact some college football games Saturday if it verifies.

It appears the warmer than normal pattern lingers into the opening of October but we’ll need to watch the October 6-8th time frame for decent cold front in the Ohio Valley.  Stay tuned – Sean Ash

7DAY

A Sunny Stretch For The Next Several Days

A mix of sun and clouds have been hanging around this afternoon.  The high temperatures today will top out in the lower 80s.  There’s just enough instability in the atmosphere that isolated sprinkles and brief showers have developed.  They’ll be quick-movers and not impact too many areas, but we didn’t want this to catch you by surprise.

Any showers quickly fade toward sunset and clouds begin clearing for the overnight. The lack of cloud coverage tonight will allow temperatures to fall into the mid 50s, which is about 10 degrees cooler than the average low for this time of year.

LOWS

Tomorrow is shaping up to be a beautiful day.  We will start off the day mostly sunny and then transition to partly cloudy skies by the afternoon. Similar to today, there is a chance for some areas to see a few sprinkles during the afternoon hours.  However, we will be mainly dry with temperatures in the lower 80s.

PLANNER HIGHS

A great stretch of mostly dry and pleasant conditions remains in the forecast as we head into the weekend.  Temperatures will be back near the average by Friday with highs in the mid 80s and partly cloudy skies.  The chance of some brief isolated showers cannot be ruled out over the weekend but mainly dry conditions will persist into early next week as high temperatures warm into the upper 80s.

This is going to be a great week to enjoy some outdoor activities like the Indians at Victory Field or the Indiana State Fair.

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Great Weather To Start The Indiana State Fair

You can certainly feel the difference in the air mass this evening.  Temperatures have already dropped into the lower 60s and a pleasant northeasterly wind continues to blow across Central Indiana.  We expect mostly clear conditions, though some mid to high level clouds will occasionally race across the sky.

24HR CHANGE PLANNER TONIGHT LOWS TONIGHT

 

 

Lows drop into the 50s and light jacket may be needed for the kids at the bus stop in the morning.  It’s a picture-perfect beginning to the Indiana State Fair with low humidity, sunshine and warm highs in the lower 80s!  Have fun but certainly pack the sunglasses and sunscreen with high UV rays due to the dry air and mainly clear conditions.

 

PLANNER TOMORROW MORNING PLANNER MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TOMORROW

You really can’t ask for a better day for Colts Camp, the State Fair, Tim McGraw or anything else you have planned.  Enjoy and nice weather kicks off the weekend too!

TEMP TREND FRIDAY COLTS PLANNER KLIPSCH

Saturday looks great too with partly cloudy and warm conditions as highs jump into the mid-80s.  Storm chances return Sunday but we’re not advertising canceling outdoor plans at the moment… just back for coverage and timing updates.

PLANNER SATURDAY RPM SUNDAY PLANNER SUNDAY

After Monday the flow becomes predominantly north-northwesterly for an extended period of comfortable conditions next week.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

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Beautiful Day

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It is another beautiful morning in Indiana and we can look for a great day with the humidity still lower than the oppressive mess we experienced last week. Don’t rule out an isolated shower but most areas stay dry and the high tops out around 83 degrees.

The most recent computer guidance keeps most showers in Southern Indiana for today, tonight and tomorrow. it’s still possible that a thunderstorm or two could creep into the Metro area.

High temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 70s. Keep in mind that the average high temperature for this time of year is 84 degrees.

We’ll warm back up to near average conditions for the weekend with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Drier conditions arrive back in the forecast by Friday, just in time to start the Indiana State Fair.

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Friday Forecast and Weekend Preview

We are actually counting dry days in a row.  We have had 3 and we are forecasting a couple more.  Right now the forecast is dry through the start of the weekend.

It will be a mainly clear and mild night across central Indiana, with lows in the lower and middle 60s.  We are forecasting a bit more heat and humidity for the weekend and much of next week.

There will be a mix of sun and clouds on Friday, with highs in the middle 80s.

DAYPART HIGHS

Highs are forecast upper 80s this weekend.  Right now we have most of Saturday dry, with a chance for a stray storm Saturday night.  There is a chance for a few storms on Sunday, but we are not forecasting an all day rain.  If you are going to the Brickyard 400 or have other outdoor plans on Sunday, check back for updates.  We will fine tune the timing of those Sunday storm chances.

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A good part of next week will be hot and humid, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s Monday through Thursday.  We will be dodging a few storms too.  A few are possible on Monday and Tuesday, with more storm coverage expected Wednesday and Thursday.

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Heat and More Storms in the Weekend Forecast

Storms with heavy rain, lightning and damaging winds moved through central Indiana late Friday.  These storms brought 3-5 inches of rain and dangerous flash flooding.  Water may still be rising overnight and flooding is hard to see at night.  It is a good idea to take extra care when you travel Friday night through early Saturday.  Our rivers will remain high and under flood warnings for several days.

There will some dry hours on Saturday, as the heat builds.  High temperatures will be in the range of 90-95 and heat index values will be 100-110.  A heat advisory is in effect for the state on Saturday.

planner HIGHS HEAT INDEX heat

We are expecting some dry hours, but a few storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening.  Any storm that develops may contain more heavy rain.  If you have outdoor plans, you can check Live Doppler 13 Radar on your phone with the SkyTrak13 Weather app.  There will be some dry hours on Sunday too, with highs in the lower and middle 90s.  More scattered storms are possible later in the day.  There is a slight risk for severe weather on Sunday.  Here is the latest timing of those storm chances this weekend.  There will be updates to the timing and placement of the storms so check back for updates.

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RISK 7DAY

The storm chances will end early Monday.  Right now we have a few dry days in the forecast for next week.  We hope this dry pattern materializes.  This July is now the 3rd wettest on record, with over 11 inches of rain in Indianapolis.