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Mar
17

Northern Lights Possible This Evening?

Posted By · March 17, 2015 at 4:54 pm

It is a possibility here in Central Indiana as the Space Weather Prediction Center alerted of a severe geomagnetic storm in progress.  According to the SWPC this is due to the interaction of a pair of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) spewing from the sun earlier today and now interacting with the Earth’s atmosphere.

They note that similar events have produced aurora borealis as far south as Alabama, North Carolina and northern California.  It’s not a given, but we do expect clear conditions this evening.  They’re predicting the storm to diminish as the day ends… so it may be a race against time with our sunset time at 7:54pm.  Keep an eye to the north and please let us know if you’re fortunate enough to see this atmospheric treat.

Below is an aurora forecast map produced by the University of Alaska at Fairbanks:

AURORA FORECAST

 

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Yippee!!!!!  The wait was well worth it.  Shortly after 3pm, under a hazy sunshine Indianapolis recorded its first 60 degree temperature since November 30th.  This marks the latest first 60 degree day since March 12th of 1982, and the 101 day streak without a 60 degree temperature is the 17th longest stretch on record since 1871.

The average date for the first 60 degree day in the city if February 4th and the first last year occurred on February 20th.  Get outside and enjoy!  We’ll have more 60s Thursday before another round of heavy, steady rain arrives Friday.  You can get the extended forecast analysis from an earlier blog here.

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Mar
06

Slow Weekend Warming

Posted By · March 6, 2015 at 5:14 am

It is REALLY cold out there this morning.Many towns are below freezing now and others in the single digits. The record in Indianapolis is -6 set in 1960.

Wear your warmest today because our wind chills are in the 0 to -10 range. The sun will help push our highs today back to near 30 degrees during the afternoon. Look for no snow and temperatures in the 20s as high school teams around Indiana play in the sectional finals in 64 sites around the state.

The major weather pattern change begins tomorrow with highs around 40 degrees Saturday and Sunday.

On This Date in Central Indiana Weather History……
1961 : Kokomo…A tornado picked up a mobile home and hurled it into a 2 story home at 6:50 am. One person was killed.

blog1extended

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Mar
04

Snow Moves Out – Cold Thursday

Posted By · March 4, 2015 at 10:19 pm

The latest weather system brought several inches of new snow to the southern third of Indiana late Wednesday.  Snow will end overnight, but watch for slick and snow covered roads especially south of Indianapolis through Thursday morning.  There might even be a few slick roads across the rest of the area due to refreezing.

It will be colder overnight, with lows near 10.  Temperatures won’t move much on Thursday, with morning clouds and some afternoon sun.  Forecast highs are in the upper teens and lower 20s.

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Near record cold is forecast for Friday morning, with lows near 0.  The record is -1 in 1978.  Highs on Friday will be near 30 degrees, with mostly sunny skies.

The weather pattern will be dry for the end of the week and the weekend.  Forecast highs are near 40 degrees on Saturday and Sunday.  Remember Daylight Saving Time begins on Sunday.  This means your turn your clocks forward 1 hour when you go to bed Saturday night.  It is also a great idea to change the batteries in smoke and carbon monoxide detectors.

A big warm-up is in the forecast for early next week.  We have 40s for Monday, lower 50s on Tuesday and upper 50s on Wednesday.  Finally there is a taste of Spring in the forecast.

7DAY

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Mar
02

Slick Start Tuesday To Snow Potential Wednesday

Posted By · March 2, 2015 at 4:32 pm

Buckle up for a wild weather ride the next 48 to 72 hours Central Indiana.  All is quiet this evening with an increase in clouds expected as our next weather system approaches from the west.  All of the viewing area is under a Winter Weather Advisory that begins at 3am and runs until midday Tuesday.

ADVISORY HEADLINES

An area of sleet and freezing rain expands eastward late tonight into the Tuesday morning commute.  It may not be heavy precipitation, but it will be effective falling onto sub-freezing surfaces like sidewalks and roadways.  This will lead to slick travel for several hours in the morning with temperatures not anticipated to climb above freezing until around midday.

PLANNER TONIGHT RPM 12AM TUESDAY RPM 6AM TUESDAY RPM 12PM TUESDAY

HEADLINES 2

Rising temperatures and locally heavy rainfall increases the risk for flooding Tuesday evening… though it’s uncertain at this point where the heaviest rain-banding will set up tomorrow.  It should be noted that underneath the heavier bands of rain rainfall amounts of .25″ to .75″ are possible.  Rainfall on the heavy snow pack and frozen ground could lead to excessive runoff.

PLANNER TOMORROW RPM 10PM TUESDAY RPM 10AM WEDNESDAY

We’re closely monitoring snow potential Wednesday as colder air returns and teams up with abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.  At this juncture it’s a bit uncertain where the heaviest snow axis develops.  But it appears somewhere between I-70 and the Ohio River could be the bulls eye… as various model outputs show heavy (6″+) snowfall in this region.  We’ll refine this forecast tomorrow and don’t be surprised if the Winter Storm Watches in southern Indiana/northern Kentucky expand farther north to include more of Central Indiana.

RPM 1PM WEDNESDAY 7DAY

Near record cold temperatures arrive after Wednesday, with lows nearing zero to sub-zero Thursday and Friday mornings.  Though bitterly cold… both days feature decent sunshine and quiet conditions compared to the beginning of the week.  We’re going to keep the weekend dry for now but may need to add light precipitation chances.  Stay tuned for updates on a highly changeable forecast for Wednesday – Sean Ash

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Feb
27

Latest Timing and Totals for Sunday’s Snow

Posted By · February 27, 2015 at 10:51 pm

Here is the latest timing for the snow and wintry mix on Sunday.  The timing is similar from earlier analysis, but the rain/snow line is a little farther south.  Remember where this stays all snow, snowfall potential is 4″+.  We still the best chance for these higher totals will be north of Indianapolis.  The rest of central Indiana will be in the range of 2-4 inches of snow.

RPM RPM2 RPM3

RPM5 rpm6 totals

 

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Feb
25

Light Snow Update and Another Arctic Blast

Posted By · February 25, 2015 at 10:04 pm

Light snow will continue to move into central Indiana Wednesday night and snow showers stay in the forecast for Thursday.  We are not forecasting a lot of snow, but most of central Indiana will have a dusting of new snow with a few places north and northwest of Indianapolis closer to 2 inches.  Here is the timing with FutureTrak13.  The timing is a bit tricky, as there will be a few snow showers for the Thursday morning commute.  There will also be bursts of snow Thursday afternoon and evening, as the arctic air arrives.

RPM RPM1 RPM2

Highs on Thursday will be in the upper teens and lower 20s.

DAYPART

We will really feel that arctic chill Friday morning through Saturday morning.  Low temperatures are forecast below zero both mornings and at record breaking levels on Saturday morning.  Highs on Friday will only be in the teens.

We are tracking a developing weather system for the end of the weekend.  Right now, snow is forecast to start falling early Sunday morning.  Snow and a wintry mix are possible throughout the day on Sunday, with accumulations possible.  It is a bit too early for totals, but we will keep you updated.  You can see the system developing on Saturday to our SW with FutureTrak13.

RPM5 rpm7

The forecast for early next week isn’t easy either.  There will be snow, rain and ice chances Monday through Wednesday.  Our weather pattern stays active over the next 7 days.

7DAY

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Feb
25

Milder Now, Snow Later

Posted By · February 25, 2015 at 5:39 am
 

Not quite as cold this morning, but we will see this cold weather stick with us into next week. Our high today reaches the mid 20s.

Look for another chance for snow tonight and Thursday. This system will bring the chance for an inch or 2 of snow to central Indiana. Some of the latest computer models show that there could be some slick spots for the morning rush hour tomorrow.

Look for highs to roll back into the teens by Thursday and Friday. You can expect near record low temperatures on Friday morning. We have -3 in the forecast and the record is -7 in 1963. The record low for Saturday is 2 in 1993 and we are forecasting that one to fall, with forecast lows near -6 degrees.

Highs will reach the mid 30s by Sunday but… you can also expect a bit of snow/wintry mix in the forecast . Looks like March will come in like a cold lamb!

Daypartextended

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