Archive for SkyTrak Weather Blog
The SkyTrak13 weather team is tracking a significant winter storm this weekend with heavy snow, sleet and ice all possible for Central Indiana.
Let’s cover this top weather headline first.
As of right now snow showers will start after 8pm Saturday night and continue through Monday morning. Along and north of I-70 6″ – 10″ of snow will be likely. That’s if the precip stays almost all snow. The line between ice/sleet and snow is something we will continue to analyze. South of I-70 up to 6″ of snow is possible with sleet and up to .25″ of ice possible. Temperature will be key and if more freezing rain/sleet mixes in snow totals will be lowered, if it’s all snow, they may have to be bumped up.
The snow will continue into Monday morning. Travel is expected to become very difficult Sunday, and continuing Monday morning.
A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for all of Central Indiana for Saturday night through Monday morning.
Before that system gets here we’ll enjoy a mix of sun and clouds today with highs in the low 30s.
Up to 1″ of snow is possible tonight, but not everyone will get snow as temps fall to the upper 20s.
Saturday mostly cloudy skies with temps in the upper 30s before the storm moves in. Check in with us often for any and all changes to the forecast.
Despite the sunshine today, highs only reach the upper teens and lower 20s. These numbers are 20+ degrees too cold for the end of February.
It will be a clear and cold night across central Indiana, with lows in the range of 0 to 5 degrees. Friday will start with sunshine. Highs are forecast in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Clouds arrive late in the day and there is a chance for light snow/light wintry mix Friday night and early Saturday. The rest of Saturday will be dry, with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. It gets complicated Saturday night.
We’re still tracking a potential Winter Storm this weekend. A prolonged precipitation event is in the forecast from Saturday night through early Monday, but storm track and precipitation types are still uncertain. We do know where there is all snow, 6″ + are possible. We do think the snow will mix with sleet and freezing rain especially south of Indianapolis. The snow totals will be lower, where there is a mix. Travel will be impacted from Saturday night through Monday. The best advice to is be prepared for winter weather this weekend and check back for updates.
We will have updates, as we get the latest information. Expect changes to the totals and the timing.
We’re not getting a break from the cold temps. Today’s high will only top out in the teens, about 30 degrees below “normal” for this time of year.
Winds will gust out of the northwest up to 30mph making temps in the teens feel like subzero readings.
These temps are well below our normal low of 27 and high of 45 this time of year.
Skies will remain clear tonight allowing temps to fall to 2 degrees. Wind chills will range from -10 to 0.
Friday clouds will be on the increase with highs in the upper 20s. Friday night into Saturday morning up to 1″ of snow is possible.
Saturday night into Sunday our next winter storm develops. It’s still early to determine snow totals, but as of right now along and north of I-70 will more likely see heavier snow totals. Temps are trending colder, so that would mean mostly snow for the majority of Central Indiana. We will keep you posted, for now, here’s how the winter storm looks to play out. We’re still monitoring the track of this system, and of course we update you with the latest.
More cold in the 7 day, our winter pattern isn’t over yet.
Another arctic front will move through central Indiana early Thursday morning. This will happen between 2am and 8am. The front will trigger a few snow showers and gusty winds. We are only expecting a dusting of snow, but where the snow sticks there will be a few slick roads for the Thursday morning commute. We stay in the deep freeze behind the front, with morning temperatures in the single digits and highs only in the teesn.
Thursday afternoon and most of Friday will be dry. There is the chance for light snow or a light wintry mix Friday night through early Saturday. The bigger potential winter storm with ice and snow accumulations arrives late Saturday night and will last through early Monday morning. There are still lots of questions with this winter storm. We are analyzing the possible track and possible ice and snow accumulations for central Indiana. We will know more as this system gets a little closer, so stay tuned for updates.
Deceiving sun over Central Indiana, with temperatures a good 20 to 30 degrees below normal. Highs will range from the mid-teens up north to the lower 20s south.
Another Arctic front arrives Thursday morning to reinforce the already bitter cold air in place. Temperatures will hold nearly steady tonight, but an increasing wind pushes “feels like” temperatures well below zero Thursday morning. The passage of the Arctic front tomorrow morning will knock temperatures into the single digits even after sunrise…before leveling off in the lower teens Thursday afternoon.
Strong sustained wind of 25-35mph can be expected with gusts up to 50+mph with the pre-dawn frontal passage… along with the possibility of snow squalls. The quick coating of snow could make it messy for some morning commuters.
Adding insult to injury will be brutal wind chills of -10 to -25 for the bus stop and ride into work. Definitely wake up with Nicole Misencik Thursday morning for the latest as you may need to add some extra time to your ride.
Medium range computer model guidance continues to support our theory of a high impact Winter Storm this weekend. Confidence is high there will be a prolonged precipitation event with significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice across the Ohio Valley including Central Indiana. However track and exact amounts of any given precip-type remain uncertain. Timing for now looks to be between Saturday night and well into Monday.
Be aware that this will impact traveling across the region during that time and we’re advising you to check back for updates to the highly changeable forecast this weekend.
Long range guidance suggests record breaking cold is possible next week. Admittedly my forecast high and low temperatures next Tuesday and Wednesday may be too “warm.” Winter is not going away anytime soon. Have a great afternoon – Sean Ash
A series of arctic fronts will keep central Indiana in the deep freeze. The first is moving through central Indiana late Tuesday evening. There are a few snow showers along this front. The steadiest will fall from Indianapolis south. Another dusting up to an inch is possible. Watch for a few slick roads, mainly south of Indianapolis. We will feel the impact of this arctic front, with temperatures near zero Wednesday morning. Wind chills will be in the range of -5 to -15. A wind chill advisory is in effect across the northern half of Indiana from late tonight through early Wednesday. This includes: Fishers, Carmel, Kokomo, Lafayette, Muncie, Anderson, Marion and Hartford City, for wind chills near -20.
The average high is near 45 degrees, but we will be nearly 30 degrees colder than that Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday will be a cold day, with highs 15 to 20 degrees. Highs on Thursday will struggle to near 10 degrees.
Another arctic front will reinforce the deep freeze and keep morning temperatures near zero and highs in teens and 20s through Friday.
There will be a chance for light snow later Friday and early Saturday, but most of our analysis is being done for a potential winter storm Sunday and Monday. The track will be the key to this storm and that is still the be big question. Be prepared for potential accumulating snow and ice. We will keep you updated.
The unrelenting winter continues to put up impressively cold numbers across Central Indiana. With an average temperature of 24.5° winter 2013-14 currently ties for 10th coldest on record. Tonight continues the chilly theme of the season with Wind Chill Advisories issued for a good chunk of the viewing area and lows that will be closer to records than averages.
Wind chills will be in the -5 to -15 range for early Wednesday, as lows near zero in Indianapolis and sub-zero north of I-70.
It should also be noted that light snow will break along an Arctic front later this evening. Although light, this snow will effective to make roads slick south of I-70… with greatest impact likely along and south of a Bloomington-Columbus line and points south toward the Ohio River. Add some extra time if you’re traveling south in the morning.
A bright, bitter day is on tap Wednesday. Wind chills likely remain sub-zero into midday with highs only in the mid-upper teens (average is 44).
The steady diet of Arctic fronts continues Thursday, with frontal passage expected between 4am-7am. Notice below how temperatures drop Thursday midday, despite a bright sky. A potently cold air mass for sure considering it’s late February.
Friday morning remains cold but quiet, though some snow is possible Friday night into Saturday. A bigger storm continues to show up in medium range models, which have persistently distributed nearly an inch of liquid precipitation for Sunday into Monday. It’s too early to throw out snowfall and ice numbers, but if 1″ of liquid verifies significant snow/ice amounts would be likely in Central Indiana.
Below are the the latest runs of the Euro (upper plot of image below) and GFS (lower plot of image below) models. The Euro is colder (mainly snow) and the GFS is warmer (more ice), but it’s not uncommon to have this type of separation this far out. It’s still five days, so significant changes are possible… if not likely.
Check back for updates and modifications to the track and forecast. This could be a high impact event for travel by late weekend.
If you’re searching for warmth you’re not going to find here in the next 7 to 10 days. March comes in on a cold note as temps drop back into the single digits (at least) next Tuesday morning. But I do offer some glimmer of hope for the middle of the month. Long range ensemble data and teleconnections suggest a “potential” pattern shift to near or above normal conditions.
(Image below courtesy of WX Bell Analytics)
Let’s revisit this in a week or so to see how accurate this 16 day ensemble median temperature plot is. Have hope… and patience!
Light snow showers could produce up to an inch of snow this morning but some spots will only see flurries. Temps are well below freezing, so slick spots are possible.
Highs will eventually top out around 30 degrees with a mix of sun and clouds for the afternoon.
Tonight temps drop to 0, but it will feel more like -15 thanks to the wind chill.
Wednesday will be cold and sunny. Highs will reach the teens, however with the wind it will feel like the single digits.
We start to “warm” up into the 20s Thursday, but another chance of light snow will be possible late Friday.
The SkyTrak13 team is closely watching Sunday into Monday. As of right now, accumulating snow is possible, as a winter storm is eyeing Central Indiana. Of course the track could change, and impact snow totals, and what type of precip we will see. We’ll keep you posted.