Home News Weather Traffic Sports Hot Topics
 Blog Homepage

Archive for SkyTrak Weather Blog

Jul
22

Is El Nino Coming And Will It Impact Indiana?

Posted By · July 22, 2015 at 2:06 pm

The first part of that question seems to be a resounding yes based on latest data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Centers for Environmental Protection (NCEP).  How it will impact Indiana this upcoming winter is a bit more challenging being this far out.  There’s no denying that the equatorial waters of the Eastern Pacific are warming as the sea surface temperature anomaly map below shows (click on image to animate)….. which is the definition of an El Nino.

sstaanim  CURRENT SST INDEX

In fact climate experts say the developing El Nino could potentially be one of the stronger on modern record if it continues on its current pace.  El Ninos usually develop during summer months and peak in intensity during the winter causing global fluctuations in weather patterns.

CFS NINO FORECAST  HISTORICAL SST ANOMALIES

Long-lead seasonal “modeled” sea surface anomalies suggest this El Nino will rival if not exceed the winters of 1982-83 and 1997-98… the latter which is the strongest El Nino on record.  It should be noted that other global teleconnections can also play a significant role in the eventual outcome of winter too.  Going forward we’ll need to see what phases these various teleconnections will be in across the west/north/east Pacific Ocean and north Atlantic Ocean… as they’re all pieces to the puzzle.

PLUME BASED ENSO FORECAST EL NINO IMPACTS

But if indeed El Nino is the dominant driver, and it is a significantly strong event, then climatologically speaking the odds favor a warmer/drier December through February locally.

The strong El Ninos of 1982-83 & 1997-98 are both in the Top 10 least snowiest winters on record in Indianapolis and produced under 10″ combined snowfall.  1997-98 is the 7th warmest winter on record for the city and 1982-83 is the 12th warmest out of 143 winters on record.

WINTER STATS INDY

Each El Nino is not the same and there is no guarantee it will continue to strengthen.  For now we wait and monitor.

 

Comments (0)
Jul
22

Mild Pattern

Posted By · July 22, 2015 at 3:22 am

This is more like it! Temperatures are running 5-10 degrees cooler now then at this time yesterday. Humidity is also down and for many, with a high of only 80, this will be the most pleasant day of the week. The Indians play this afternoon and it should be a real pleasant day for a ball game at Victory Field.

Indians

Lows will be in the 60s Thursday and Friday mornings, with afternoon highs in the lower 80s, Thursday and middle 80s on Friday.  We are forecasting dry weather through the start of the weekend.

For the weekend, most of Saturday looks dry.  It will be warmer and more humid, with highs in the middle and upper 80s.  The latest timing of weekend rain chances has storm chances returning late Saturday into early Sunday. At this point, there is a chance for scattered storms for the running of the Brickyard Sunday.

extended

Comments (0)
Jul
21

Refreshing Air Arrives!

Posted By · July 21, 2015 at 4:04 pm

It’s been long overdue after Indianapolis’ wettest month in 65 years and wettest summer since 1979.

WETTEST MONTHS WETTEST SUMMER TEMPS DEWPOINTS DEWPOINT CHANGE

We’re finally enjoying some much needed dry time and a break from tropical humidity.  Dew points this afternoon are 10 to 15 degrees lower than 24 hours ago and the Muggy Meter will remain comfortable from now until Friday afternoon.

MUGGY METER PLANNER INDIANS

This sets the stage for a perfect night at Victory Field and Central Indiana’s coolest night since June 28th.  Open the windows and air out the house as lows drop into the 50s Wednesday morning.  With sunshine and mild highs near 80, we’re calling Wednesday our pick of the week… though a strong argument could be made for Thursday too.

PLANNER TONIGHT LOWS TONIGHT HIGHS TOMORROW PLANNER WEDNESDAY

High pressure lingers around the Ohio Valley for several days and holds off rain/storm chances until Saturday night.  Based on latest data sets we’ve added scattered storm chances to Brickyard 400 Sunday… but timing and coverage remain highly uncertain.  Still plenty of time to iron-out specifics between now and then.  Enjoy what will be a great evening – Sean Ash

HIGHS THURSDAY RPM FRIDAY 7AM 7DAY

Comments (0)
Jul
21

It Will Get Drier!

Posted By · July 21, 2015 at 3:34 am

Last nights rain really added up. At 11.88″ this July, we are now the 2nd wettest July on record and the 4th wettest month in recorded history in Indianapolis. There will be gradual relief from the higher heat and humidity today.  It will still be a bit muggy through late afternoon.  Highs will top out at 83 today. Most of the area will be dry.  There is a just a chance for a stray shower south of Indianapolis Tuesday afternoon.  As winds come out of the north and northwest, it should be a great night for baseball for the Indians at Victory Field tonight.

rainIndians

A dry stretch of weather is in the forecast for Wednesday through Friday.  Highs will be near 80 on Wednesday and in the lower and middle 80s Thursday and Friday.

Higher heat and humidity return for the weekend, with highs in the upper to near 90 degrees.  There is a chance for a few storms late Saturday and a slight chance for a storm on Sunday.We’ll be watching your Brickyard 400 forecast for better details as we get closer to Sunday.

extended

Comments (0)
Jul
20

Rain Ends Overnight and Dry Days Ahead

Posted By · July 20, 2015 at 10:26 pm

There was another round of heavy rain on Monday night across central Indiana.  The heavy rain will move across central Indiana through about 2am.  Heavy rain will be in Indianapolis through about midnight and then move across the southern part of the area between midnight and 2am.  The state should be mainly dry by 3am.

rpm rpm1 rpm2

It will be warm and muggy overnight, with lows near 70 degrees.  There will be gradual relief from the higher heat and humidity on Tuesday.  It will still be a bit muggy through late afternoon.  Highs are forecast in the lower and middle 80s.  Expect a mix of clouds and sun on Tuesday.  Most of the area will be dry.  There is a just a chance for a stray shower south of Indianapolis Tuesday afternoon.

planner

A dry stretch of weather is in the forecast for Wednesday through Friday.  Highs will be near 80 on Wednesday and in the lower and middle 80s Thursday and Friday.

Higher heat and humidity return for the weekend, with highs in the upper to near 90 degrees.  There is a chance for a few storms late Saturday and a slight chance for a storm on Sunday.

7day

Comments (0)
Jul
20

Stormy For Some This Evening But Drying Out Rest Of The Week

Posted By · July 20, 2015 at 3:53 pm

So far clouds have more bark than bite.  But the remnants of a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) moving into the state, a cold front approaching from the northwest, and an upper disturbance arriving from Iowa trigger scattered to numerous showers and storms this evening and tonight… with the greatest focus of precipitation perhaps along and south of I-74/70 corridors.  Not every backyard will get wet but locally heavy downpours and gusty wind up to 50mph occur in stronger storms.

SURFACE SPC RPM TODAY 4PM RPM TODAY 7PM RPM TODAY 9PM PLANNER INDIANS

Any storms that develop will diminish and/or sink southward by sunrise Tuesday.  The passage of the aforementioned cold front tomorrow morning ushers in a breeze of change.  After a muggy start early Tuesday expect less humid conditions to ride into the state on a gusty northwest wind.  Highs will range from the upper 70s north, low 80s central and mid 80s south.

PLANNER TONIGHT RPM TUESDAY 7AM RPM TUESDAY 4PM HIGHS TOMORROW

Clouds clearing late tomorrow, a calming wind and high pressure moving in allows lows to drop into the 50s Wednesday as the Muggy Meter drops below the line 60 degree dewpoint line of discomfort.  The drier air also sets the stage for several mostly sunny days… which is just what the doctor ordered in one of the wettest summers on record.

MUGGY METER LOWS WEDNESDAY RPM WEDNESDAY 7AM RPM WEDNESDAY 5PM HIGHS WEDNESDAY RPM THURSDAY 7AM

Sunshine and highs near 80 degrees make Wednesday our pick of the week.  Though one could make a strong argument for Thursday, Friday or Saturday.  A stalled boundary to our south and west is the focal area for storms and we’re keeping the local forecast dry until Saturday evening.

GFS RAIN EURO RAIN

Latest medium range computer model guidance suggests storms Saturday night should depart prior to the start of the Brickyard 400… though this is highly subject to change.  However we do feel confident temperatures warm back into the upper 80s to near 90 this weekend.  Please check back for updates and have a safe evening – Sean Ash

7DAY

Comments (0)
Jul
20

Muggy Monday

Posted By · July 20, 2015 at 3:20 am

It’s a muggy start to our work week, but the work week as a whole should be mainly dry with cooler temperatures. We are not there yet.

Look for a pop up thunderstorm later today and again tomorrow. Today, there is a low risk of severe weather around Evansville,but the Storm Prediction Center has kept Central Indiana out of that area. It looks like the Indians have no problem getting the game in tonight as they return to play at Victory Field.

DaypartIndians
The dry weather coming mid week is welcome and will give swollen rivers, creeks and tributaries a chance to recede a bit.

This July is Indianapolis’ 5th wettest month on record with nearly two weeks to go, but again, we won’t add much to that mark this week.

High pressure settling across the Ohio Valley provides pleasant morning lows in the 50s and lower 60s followed by mild afternoons Wednesday to Saturday. We do have isolated storm chances returning Brickyard 400 Sunday… but much can and will change in the forecast between now and then.

extended

Comments (0)
Jul
19

Update On Spotty Downpours Tonight And Drying Out After Monday

Posted By · July 19, 2015 at 9:44 pm

Spotty showers and locally heavy downpours remain in play the next few hours with areas of fog developing by sunrise Monday.

RPM MONDAY 12AM RPM MONDAY 7AM PLANNER TONIGHT

Lows tonight will be around 70 degrees and highs Monday return to the mid-80s.  Daytime heating, tropical air and approaching upper disturbance brings a renewed round of scattered downpours and storms.


PLANNER MONDAY HIGHS MONDAY

PLANNER INDIANS

RPM MONDAY 2PM RPM MONDAY 5PM SPC 2

The southern half of Indiana remains under a Low Risk (15% probability of large hail and/or damaging wind, 2-5% tornado chance) for severe storms… primarily Monday afternoon and evening.

RPM MONDAY 10PM RPM TUE 4PM

Rain and storm chances exit the forecast and region after Tuesday morning as we stare down a multi-day dry spell that carries into the start of next weekend.  We typically don’t get too excited about 4-5 consecutive dry days, but in the midst of record-breaking July and summer rainfall it’s noteworthy.

HIGHS TUESDAY WETTEST MONTHS

This July is Indianapolis’ 4th wettest month on record with nearly two weeks to go, and summer 2015 (June-August) is the city’s 4th wettest summer on record with a month and half to go!  Thankfully medium range guidance shows our driest week of the summer.

WETTEST SUMMERS GFS RAIN EURO RAON

High pressure settling across the Ohio Valley provides pleasant morning lows in the 50s and lower 60s followed by mild afternoons Wednesday to Saturday.  We do have isolated storm chances returning Brickyard 400 Sunday… but much can and will change in the forecast between now and then.  Please check back for updates – Sean Ash

RPM WEDNESDAY 7AM 7DAY

Comments (0)