Archive for SkyTrak Weather Blog
Low clouds, fog and drizzle will continue overnight, with nearly steady temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Scattered showers are in the Wednesday forecast, but it will be warm with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
The SkyTrak 13 Weather Team is tracking a developing storm system scheduled to arrive Thursday night and last through Friday night. This is a complex storm system, because we are expecting rain, sleet and snow. This makes it difficult to forecast exact amounts of ice and snow this far out. Our early estimations are 1-2 inches of snow north of Indianapolis and 2-5 inches of sleet and snow from Indianapolis south. Remember this is still developing and we will continue to make adjustments to the timing, the type of precipitation and the amounts. What you do need to know is travel will be fine on Thursday, but it will be tricky on Friday. We are expecting rain Thursday evening to mix with sleet and freezing rain Thursday night and early Friday morning. This will change to all snow on Friday. Stay tuned for updates.
There will be another round of snow possible on Sunday and another on Monday. It is an active 7 day forecast and cold. By the weekend, lows will be near 10 degrees and highs only in the 20s. This arctic air is forecast to linger through early next week.
The fog is lifting a bit, but more fog, low clouds and drizzle are in the forecast for tonight. Temperatures are in the range of 45-50 degrees right now and temperatures will be nearly steady overnight. The steadiest rain and snow on Doppler 13 Radar right now is across the northern Great Lakes. The precipitation will be in the form of drizzle locally overnight, with a better chance for scattered showers on Wednesday. Wednesday will be warm too, with highs near 60 degrees.
The SkyTrak13 Weather Team is analzying a difficult storm system for the end of the week. Right now we are forecasting the biggest impact from this system late Thursday night through Friday evening. After some rain on Wednesday, Thursday will start dry. Thursday will end with rain developing. As colder air begins to interact with this system, the rain will change to sleet and freezing rain from Indianapolis south. This will be enough for some ice accumulations. Even colder air will change the icy mess to all snow on Friday. Where it stays all snow, a couple of inches (at least) are possible. We will know more, as this system gets closer to us, so stay tuned for updates. Be prepared for tricky travel Friday morning and Friday night.
Central Indiana is off to a foggy start, with mild temps in the forecast (for now).
Visibility readings will likely remain below 4 miles for your morning commute. These are the 4am readings.
Temps are starting off in the 30s, we’ll warm to the mid to upper 50s today with a mix of sun and clouds and a chance for sprinkles. Winds will gust out of the south up to 20 mph.
Tonight temps remain mild with overnight lows in the upper 40s. Rain will develop late and stick around Wednesday. Scattered showers and even some rumbles of thunder are possible Wednesday.
Thursday is the day we’re watching closely, rain turns to sleet and snow as temps fall throughout the day. Friday snow showers are possible with light accumulations. Right now we’re looking at 1-2″ of snow… but stay posted that could change as the system continues to develop.
Much colder air moves in for the weekend, with another chance of accumulating snow Sunday.
Light rain continues to fall across central Indiana. Live Doppler 13 Radar at 7:30pm shows the steadiest across the northern half of the state. The rain will end overnight and Tuesday will be cloudy, with a few sprinkles possible.
Tuesday will start in the 40s, but forecast highs are in the 50s. Wednesday will be even warmer and near 60 degrees. Scattered showers and a few thundershowers are possible on Wednesday. As colder air wraps into a developing storm system, rain will mix with snow and change to all snow Thursday night and Friday. This system is still developing and we will track it closely. It is too early to give an accurate snowfall prediction, but know accumulating snow is possible later this week and again on Sunday. We will continue to give you updates on timing, type of precipitation and how much over the next several days.
Buckle up Central Indiana for what promises to be an active stretch the next few weeks, that likely delivers multiple precipitation events to the region. The image below shows the average configuration of the upper level flow across the northern hemisphere the next 8-10 days.
Please note much will change between now and the end of the week, and there is plenty of time to iron-out specifics. This post is not to “hype” or “scare”, but merely shed some light into what we’re seeing behind the scenes… and the various outcomes with this set up.
Both the GFS and European models shows a persistent southwest to northeast flow during this time. This will be an ample moisture supply that will travel over Arctic air at the surface… resulting in increased chances of snow/winter precip in the very near future.
***click images to enlarge***
Preceding the temperature tumble later this week will be a surge to near 60+ on Wednesday. The warmth and a front will trigger scattered showers and possible some gusty storms.
Notice the downward spiral in the temperature meteogram above for Indianapolis. The peak on Wednesday is evident, as is the Arctic chill for the weekend. The meteogram below is snowfall potential.
Being 72+ hours away from a “potential” winter precip event is still too far out from trying to pinpoint amounts and location of heaviest snow/precip. With much uncertainty regarding actual moisture, temperature profiles, and the likelihood of sleet and freezing rain complicating matters. Both the Euro & GFS models show snow accumulation across Central/Southern Indiana by 7pm Friday.
You’ll also notice the NAM and GFs showing sleet accumulation. It’s too be determined how quickly the Arctic air will fill the column overhead and switch all precip to snow.
For now, sleet and freezing rain are very much in play from Indy-southward. We can also look at the past to help predict future events. The image below shows the historical best match (analog) for the “modeled” conditions later this week… and it is an event from December 13-14, 1985. No two events are the same, but this gives confidence Central Indiana will see some snow. We won’t have a good handle on amounts until Wednesday.
Get ready for a big temperature change with temps going from highs in the 60s to lows in the teens.
Today we have mild temps that are just a few degrees above normal for this time of year. Highs will reach the upper 40s with mostly cloudy skies and a chance for a few sprinkles.
Tonight sprinkles are still possible but temps remain mild in the mid 40s.
Tuesday highs will warm into the mid to upper 50s, and by Wednesday we’ll see a high of 60 degrees. Even though we’ll be warming up Wednesday, we won’t see a dry sunny day, rain will be likely, and we could have thunderstorms as well.
Temps fall during the day Thursday and rain turns to snow with the possibility of light accumulating snow Friday. We will keep you posted on any and all changes coming our way.
Here are the December “norms” for the month:
And, here’s your 7 day forecast:
Highs will reach the upper 40s today with a mix of sun and clouds and a chance of sprinkles today. Enjoy the “warmth,” because a big temperature drop is on the way, along with a chance for snow.
Tuesday highs will reach the mid 50s, and by Wednesday rain becomes likely with highs near 60! Don’t get too excited about the warmth, it won’t be sticking around. Thursday we’ll see falling temps and a rain/snow mix, and by Friday we could see accumulating snow. It’s WAY to early to be throwing out snow amounts, and we will watch the forecast very closesly as we head into the weekend. One things is for sure, much cooler air arrives for the weekend with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens.
We’re putting the finishing touches on an outstanding holiday weekend in Central Indiana, and enjoy a relatively pleasant evening in the 50s. Plenty of temperatures in store this week for us… as we go from near 60° to possibly the single digits next weekend.
More on the Arctic Express later in the blog. For now let’s ease into the work week with a quiet night ahead.
Clouds return by the time you wake Monday morning with low temps in the mid 30s. Despite less sun tomorrow, I believe highs creep into the mid/upper 40s.
Clouds have more bark than bite the next 48 hours. Though sprinkles are possible, our next best shot at organized precipitation will be Wednesday. This will also mark the warmest day for awhile in the upper 50s to near 60°.
There is good agreement in long range models on this warm up being brief and a return to much colder air looking eminent during the day Thursday.
There is less consensus in the models regarding the timing/track of low pressure ripples tracking along an Arctic cold front. Being five days out accumulating snow is merely a “possibility” in the forecast… but very subject to change regarding location and potential amounts. For now, the spread of snow “potential” ranges from Central Kentucky to Northern Indiana. Stay tuned for forecast updates, and we’ll be able to fine-tune timing and how much in the days ahead.
The coldest air of the season lurks behind any wintry precipitation next weekend. Depending on snow pack, single digit lows and highs near 20 are very possible. This system(s) late week look to mark the beginning of a active pattern that carries into the middle of December.