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Nov
17

Near Record Cold and Slick Roads Tuesday AM

Posted By · November 17, 2014 at 10:39 pm
By late Monday evening, temperatures had dropped into the lower teens and wind chills were below zero.  The numbers will continue to fall, as we track dangerous cold early Tuesday.  Temperatures will be in the single digits and near record cold.  The record is 5 set in 1880 and we are forecasting 7 degrees.  Wind chills will near 10 below zero.  The other danger on the roads early Tuesday will be slick spots due to re-freezing, blowing and drifting snow and a few more snow showers overnight.
lows explainer planner
We will be on record watch overnight and on Tuesday too.  The record low is 5 in 1880 and we are forecasting 7 degrees.  The record low maximum for Tuesday is 20 and we have 20 in the forecast.  In addition to the bitter chill, there will still be a few more snow showers on Tuesday.
Another fast moving weather system will pass over central Indiana on Wednesday.  There will be more light snow on Wednesday.  The chill will last through Friday, with highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s Wednesday through Friday.
Milder air arrives for the weekend, along with a damp weather pattern.  It will be a mix changing to rain on Saturday and near 40 degrees.  With highs in the 50s by Sunday, this will be rain on Sunday into Monday.
7DAY
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Nov
17

Snow Showers and Squalls To Impact Roads Into Tuesday Morning

Posted By · November 17, 2014 at 2:22 pm

Our latest bout of Arctic air will team up with an upper disturbance to trigger snow showers and locally heavy squalls this afternoon and into tonight.  In the Live Doppler 13 Radar image below you can see the banded nature of the snow which is indicative of squalls.

RADAR

These features commonly produce quick accumulations, lowered visibility, and slick roads with localized areas.  Use caution if traveling as they’ll be cutting across north-south highways and can almost seem to come out of nowhere.  Blowing snow will also across create tricky travel and keep wind chills in the single digits during daylight hours.

TEMPS WIND CHILLS PLANNER AFTERNOON

Of course this is a stark contrast to the events happening in the state at this time a year ago.  November 17, 2013 produced the second largest tornado outbreak on record for Indiana with a statewide totals of 30 twisters.  The image below shows a snow covered Lebanon, IN today compared to the tornado that impacted the city a year ago at this time.  Click here for a link to a slideshow of images from that day.

COMPARE

Below are the tracks/intensity (image 1) for Central Indiana and radar rotational signatures (image 2) courtesy of the National Weather Service in Indianapolis.  They offer an detailed analysis of the outbreak here: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ind/?n=nov172013outbreak

NOV 17TH NOV 17TH ROTATION TRACKS WIND CHILL

Snow showers continue tonight and produce local accumulations up to an inch.  Near record lows in the single digits will make for icy driving tonight into Tuesday morning as salt will be less effecting.  Sub-zero wind chills will be widespread Tuesday morning and “highs” tomorrow will struggle to hit 20 degrees… which will be near record low levels.

PLANNER EVENING WIND CHILL 2

According to the National Weather Service in Indianapolis, the chill tomorrow will be the coldest early autumn air to hit Central Indiana in some 55 years… rivaling equal cold years of 1951 and 1976.

STATS RPM 2 RPM

Flurries and snow showers continue tomorrow and Wednesday again with localized accumulation.  Highs near the freezing mark Wednesday but a blustery wind makes it feel colder.

We’re still expecting temperatures near normal this weekend but the tradeoff of the warm up will be foggy and soggy conditions.  A wintry mix Saturday changes to a cold rain.  Highs in the 50s Sunday melts the snow but leads to fog and damp conditions.  Don’t be stunned to hear some thunder Sunday or Monday as a strong storm system moves across the Ohio Valley.  Be careful driving the next 24 hours – Sean Ash

PLANNER TUESDAY

7DAY

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Nov
17

Heaviest Snowfall In Southeast Indiana Tonight

Posted By · November 17, 2014 at 12:34 am

Much of the accumulating snow is over for Central Indiana.  However moderate, to at times heavy, snow continues south of I-70 toward the Ohio River.  This was the snowiest November day in Indianapolis since 1997.  Officially 2.5″ fell at the National Weather Service in Indianapolis.

STATS

Below is a list provided by NWS Indianapolis of over snow reports.  Please note some of the reports are old and an updated list will be issued Monday morning.

STORM REPORTS

PLANNER EVENING

Accumulation overnight will primarily be along and south of a Vincennes-Bloomington-Rushville-Richmond line.  Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for the Cincinnati metro area and counties just north of the Ohio River… where 5″ is very possible.

ACCUM 2 ADVISORY RPM

Snow may return to Indianapolis but at the time of this posting it’s too early to tell if the northern fringe of the snow swath makes it that far north.  With or without additional snowfall, roads will be slick as temperatures drop into the middle 20s.

RPM 2 RPM 3

 

There’s growing concern for heavy snow showers and squalls Monday afternoon and evening that will blossom within approaching Arctic air.  These showers and a strengthening northwest wind will make for tricky driving conditions Monday evening.  Temperatures fall into the teens by 7pm and wind chills in the single digits.

RPM 4

RPM 5 PLANNER MONDAY WIND CHILL

Tuesday morning will be flat out bitter.  Sub-zero wind chills and near record lows make for a nasty day with highs struggling to hit 20… that’s 15 below the average low!  Flurries and snow showers are likely Tuesday and Wednesday.  Next weekend looks warmer, but wet and foggy.  Be safe this morning and Chuck Lofton and Nicole Misencik will update the forecast.

WIND CHILL 2 7DAY

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Nov
16

Update On Snowy Night And The Pending Bitter Blast

Posted By · November 16, 2014 at 8:22 pm

Snow continues to accumulate rapidly and will be moderate to heavy at times in the Indianapolis between now and midnight.  Snow reports are coming into the Skytrak13 Weather Center and the highest thus far have been northwest of Indianapolis.  This will eventually change as the axis of snow drifts southeastward overnight.

Amounts At Time Of Posting (8:30pm)

Frankfort 3.3″

Attica 2.5″

Lafayette 2.2″

Carmel 2″

Kirklin 2″

Anderson 1.6″

Muncie 1.5″

Russiaville 1.5″

Martinsville 1″

SNOW REPORTS RADAR

Radar at 8:30pm shows heavier banding setting up around the Indy metro area.  Increasing snowfall rates and temperatures dropping into the mid-20s overnight sets up the entire region for a slick morning commute.

TEMPERATURES ADVISORY

The Winter Weather Advisory was expanded northward to include Lafayette and Monticello.  Many areas will be in the 3-4″ range and we still anticipate areas along/south of I-70 and I-74 to near 5″ in some locations.  Remember it’s always possible to have less or more than the forecast snow zones.  But the generally idea is lightest amounts in northwest Indiana and heaviest to be along/just north of the Ohio River.

ACCUM 2 PLANNER EVENING

Much of the accumulation for Indianapolis occurs prior to 5am.  So expect slick driving conditions heading home from the Colts game and for the morning commute.  Schools delays and cancellations are very likely Monday morning.

RPM RPM 2

Snow will continue for the southeastern half of the state early Monday morning.  This is the region of greatest potential hit the high side of the 3-5″ forecast.  Snow will shut down from northwest to southeast and be out of the state by midday.

 

RPM 3

PLANNER MONDAY

As the snow exits our focus quickly shifts to looming surge of Arctic air.  The fresh snowpack will breed near record lows Tuesday morning and sub-zero wind chills.

WIND CHILL WIND CHILL 2

Tuesday and Wednesday feature single digit low temperatures and the peak of this bout of cold.  The chill eases heading into the weekend but it’s looking like a soggy and foggy weekend.  Updates to come.  Stay safe this evening – Sean Ash

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Nov
16

Turning Snowy And Near Record Cold To Follow

Posted By · November 16, 2014 at 2:46 pm

Snow is falling in parts of Central Indiana and will continue to expand cover the area by 6-7pm.  Temperatures at this hour are above freezing and likely keep roadways wet until sunset.  Road conditions will get worse overnight as temperatures drop below freezing and snow intensity increases.

TEMPS ADVISORY

A Winter Weather Advisory begins at 5pm for most of the WTHR viewing area and lasts until 9am Monday.  Winter Storm Warnings are up for southern-southeastern Indiana where snow amounts may approach 5″.

PLANNER EVENING RPM RPM 2

If you or someone you know are going to the Colts game this evening expect to drive home in a snowy scene.  There may already be a few inches of snow on the ground and we’re still expecting around 3″ in the city before accumulation ends early Monday morning.

RPM 3 RPM 4 RPM 5 RPM 6

The idea of the snow potential map below is a gradient of lightest to heaviest from northwest to southeast.  Please keep in mind the zones are not fences and there is fluctuation expected either north or south.  As with any snow event, there will always be places within a particular zone that see more or less than forecast.  3″ seems like a reasonable number for Indianapolis which would be the heaviest early season snowfall since November 13th, 1997 when 3.3″ fell.  Areas south of I-70/74 have the greatest potential to reach and/or exceed 4″ with a zone of 5″ potential just north of the Ohio River.  I’ll post updates later as needed.

ACCUM 2

PLANNER MONDAY

A new surge of Arctic air blows into town Monday afternoon with falling temperatures into the lower 20s by 5pm.  That’s when wind chills drop into the single digits and mark a prolonged period of wind chills below 10 degrees.  Sub-zero wind chills are likely Tuesday morning and record cold temperatures are possible.

WIND CHILL WIND CHILL 2

The record low Tuesday morning (5 / 1880) and record cold high temperature (20/1880) will be rivaled due to the fresh snow pack and Arctic air.  Next weekend appears to be warmer but also much wetter.  For now it appears a wintry mix arrives Saturday then slowly changes to a cold rain.  Have a safe evening and check back for updates – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Nov
16

November Snow Storm

Posted By · November 16, 2014 at 11:38 am

A winter storm is approaching central Indiana today and it will bring the first measurable snow of the season.  The timing of the storm has sped up a bit and it looks like it will arrive by late afternoon.    SUNDAY 3PM  sunday 5pm  SUNDAY 6PM sunday 9pm Monday 3am

The latest model runs have the heavier snow consistently falling south of I-70, including Bloomington to Columbus to Greensburg to Rushville line.  Here are some of the model data runs that we evaluate to make our forecast:

snow gemsnow euro snow gfs snow nam

While the models differ a bit, they are actually pretty consistent with the swath of heavier snow.  This is what the SkyTrak13 weather is forecasting for tonight’s/tomorrow’s snow:

manual snow map

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 5 PM today until 9 AM Monday.

winter ad

Be safe and give yourself plenty of time to travel Monday morning.  While it may not seem like a lot of snow, drivers are just not used to it yet. Much colder air filters in on Tuesday behind an Arctic front.  Record breaking temperatures are possible.

record

Temperatures will eventually climb back to near 40 degrees by the end of the week.

7day

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Nov
16

Snow Tonight, Bitter Cold Tuesday

Posted By · November 16, 2014 at 7:37 am

More significant snow will arrive tonight into Monday morning and record breaking temperatures are possible.

It will remain cloudy today with a few flurries through the early afternoon and snow showers will be likely by late afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the mid 30s.sunday planner

Snow will be steady Sunday evening into early Monday morning. It will taper off from northwest to southeast by mid morning Monday. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 5 PM Sunday through 9 AM Monday, including Indianapolis, Muncie, Crawfordsville, Richmond, Columbus, Bedford, Bloomington and Shelbyville. The main swath of heavier snow will be along a Bloomington to Columbus to Greensburg line and areas south. This area could see in excess of 2”-4”. Areas along I-70, including Indianapolis, could receive 2” to 3” of snow by Monday morning. Light accumulations will be in northwest central Indiana, including Lafayette, Delphi and Peru. Temperatures will fall into the mid 20s.

sunday morning sunday afternoon  sunday evening   monday am  snowpotential

 

 

Another shot of Arctic air will push in on Monday afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the upper 20s around noon and fall the rest of the day. Temperatures will be down into the low 20s by late afternoon. It will be breezy too with blowing and drifting snow likely.

monday planner

Temperatures will fall into the upper single digits and low teens Tuesday morning and only rebound into the low to mid 20s Tuesday afternoon. The record low for Tuesday is 5 degrees set in 1880 and the coldest high on record for Tuesday is 20 degrees, also set in 1880. These two records could be challenged.

record

Temperatures will gradually warm into the mid to upper 30s by the end of the work week. A wintry mix of rain and snow will be possible on Friday.

7day

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Nov
15

Light Snow Tonight, Another Round of Heavier Snow Sunday Night

Posted By · November 15, 2014 at 6:51 pm

Winter doesn’t officially arrive until December 21st but this unseasonably cold pattern will keep its grip on central Indiana. We will also see our first measurable snow this weekend.

Our first round of snow will be later this evening into early Sunday morning. We are not expecting much out of this first event but a dusting to a half inch will be possible. A few isolated spots could get up to one inch. It will still bring some slick roads to your Sunday morning routine. Temperatures will fall into the mid 20s.

sunday

Sunday will be a cloudy day with scattered flurries likely and a high in the mid 30s. Snow showers could arrive as early as late afternoon and then will be likely by evening.
SUNDAY 3PM SUNDAY 6PM MONDAY MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING

Snow will be steady Sunday evening into early Monday morning. It will taper off from southwest to northeast by mid morning Monday. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 7 PM Sunday through 9 AM Monday, including Indianapolis, Muncie, Columbus, Bedford, Bloomington and Shelbyville. Temperatures will fall into the mid 20s.

winter advisory  snow totals

Another shot of Arctic air will push in on Monday afternoon with a high of only 30 degrees. It will be breezy and cold with blowing and drifting snow likely.

Temperatures will fall into the upper single digits and low teens Tuesday morning and only rebound into the low to mid 20s Tuesday afternoon. The record low for Tuesday is 5 degrees set in 1880 and the coldest high on record for Tuesday is 20 degrees, also set in 1880. These two records could be challenged.

Temperatures will gradually warm into the mid to upper 30s by the end of the work week. A wintry mix of rain and snow will be possible on Friday.

7DAY

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