Update To Severe Weather Potential Tuesday

The well advertised powerhouse storm continues to take shape in the southwestern U.S. this hour. You can identify the gist of its track by the southwest to northeast swath of winter storm warnings from Nevada to Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

RADAR

Embedded within that area is a region of Blizzard Watches/Warning where the storm reaches its peak intensity in Nebraska and Iowa.  Some areas of the central U.S. see over a foot of snow, but thankfully this occurs after the Iowa caucuses this evening.

WARNINGS

SNOW WIDE

SNOW OHV

HEADLINES

Central Indiana will be on the warmer side of this potent storm. That warmth combined with a highly sheared atmosphere poses a risk of damaging wind and/or brief spin-ups Tuesday evening.

FRONT

SPC OHV

SPC IND

Please note that temperatures out the door tomorrow won’t resemble anything close to producing severe weather.  In fact it will seasonably chilly in the upper 20s and lower 30s… and there’s a possibility of patchy freezing fog early in the day.

STORM THREATS

However, a late surge of warmth pushes temperatures to near record levels after 5pm. We believe the record high of 59 (set in 1911) Tuesday is in serious jeopardy. Either way you’ll notice a balminess to the air late tomorrow.

PLANNER TUESDAY

TUESDAY 5PM

Storm initiation is expected in the 4-5pm hours and individual cells should rapidly congeals into bowing line segments… that up the ante for localized damaging wind gusts.

TUESDAY 7PM

The air Tuesday won’t be very unstable but it doesn’t have to be based on extreme modeled wind shear values. Wind speeds at 5,000 feet are expected to eclipse 70mph and it won’t take much to transfer some of that wind energy to ground level. Even strong areas of showers can aid in producing damaging wind. Don’t be surprised if you hear little thunder tomorrow during the hours of 5pm and 12am Wednesday.

TUESDAY 10PM

WEDNESDAY 12AM

Much like December 23rd of last year we could spin-ups develop along the line segments to enhance the wind potential for localized damage. Please stay weather aware, download the free Skytrak13 Weather App and frequent our website/blog for updates – Sean Ash

FORECAST RAIN

RAIN POTENTIAL

 

Rain This Evening And Severe Wind Potential Late Tuesday

For the first time since 2013 Indianapolis has enjoyed consecutive 60 degree days during January.  Very balmy conditions this evening before a cold front moves across the state before midnight.  This front triggers a line of rain and marks a return to colder air to start the week.

TONIGHT 8PM TODAY MIDNIGHT

Rain mostly ends before midnight and temperatures drop into the mid-30s for the bus stop and commute.  Monday morning clouds give way to increasing sunshine tomorrow afternoon.  Though not as warm as this weekend, daytime highs tomorrow creep into the mid and upper 50s… a good 10 degrees above normal.

PLANNER MORNING MONDAY MORNING MONDAY AFTERNOON PLANNER AFTERNOON TUESDAY EVENING

We continue to bracket the hours between 4pm Tuesday and 12am Wednesday for severe wind potential.  Temperatures begin chilly Tuesday morning in the lower 30s.  A late surge into the 60s and a strong wind field associated with a strengthening storm system puts severe wind in play for Central/Southern Indiana.

SPC SPC 2

A line or lines of rain/storms should develop as a cold front races across the state.  Severe gusts or brief tornadoes will be possible until the front moves east.  It should be noted this low end severe threat could decrease or increase based on the track of the storm system.  Stay weather Tuesday/Tuesday night and expect windy conditions at the very least.

STORM THREAT 7DAY

Much colder air and snow showers wrap around the backside of the storm system Wednesday.  We’ll be seasonably cold for a few days before the air modifies heading into next weekend.

EURO GEFS

Long range ensemble data continues to show a strong signal for a wintry pattern developing in the Ohio Valley around the 9-10th of February.  Other than that we can’t be more specific.  But this does offer some hope for you snow lovers!  Check back for updates please – Sean Ash

Mild Again

Another mild day is on tap with temperatures running near 20 degrees above normal. Temperatures have been holding steady in the mid 40s this morning. It will be a cloudy afternoon with a chance of a few showers this afternoon. Winds will be gusty at times, around 25 mph. Afternoon highs will climb into the mid 50s.

TODAY PLANNER

HIGHS TODAY

There is a better chance of a few showers this evening along the cold front. Any rain will move out of the area late this evening. Cooler air moves in behind the front with temperatures eventually dropping into mid 30s.

TONIGHT

Monday will be a transitional day. The skies will slowly clear out to partly sunny by afternoon. It will be cooler but still well above average with highs in the upper 40s.

MONDAY 7AM

MONDAY 7PM

A deep area of low pressure will arrive on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely by late afternoon.

TUESDAY 3PM TUESDAY 7PM TUESDAY 11PM

There is a low risk of severe thunderstorms south of I-70. Damaging winds will be the main threat although a few isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out. The Skytrak13 Weather Team will keep you updated. Keep checking back for the latest as this storm continues to evolve.

TUESDAY RISK

As the low pressure system moves out of the Great Lakes area late Tuesday night, cooler air will arrive on the back side of the system. A few light snow showers will be possible on Wednesday, although no accumulation is expected at this time.WED AM

The colder, more seasonal conditions will continue through the weekend.

7DAY

Mild But Wet Sunday

It was an unseasonably mild day with temperatures running more than 20 degrees above average. Temperatures climbed into the upper 50s this afternoon, keeping the record of 65 degrees set back in 2013, safe.

HIGH TEMPS
Here is a viewer photo sent in by Susan Holbert of Brooks School Park in Fishers.  She said the parking lot was full and the park was full of everyone starved for warm, fresh air.  She said it was a glorious day! Agreed!

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Winds out of the south this evening will keep temperatures mild. Overnight lows will only fall into the mid 40s.

EVENING PLANNER

lows tonight

There is a chance of a few showers during the day Sunday, as a cold front approaches. It will be breezy with winds gusting around 25 mph.

sunday 7am sunday 5pm

Afternoon highs will still climb more than 15 degrees above average, into the low 50s.

sunday planner

Showers will become likely by Sunday evening. Rain will taper off early Monday morning, with cooler air pushing in behind the front Monday morning. Temperatures will fall into the mid 30s.

monday 7am

Monday will a transitional day with mostly sunny skies by afternoon. It will be a bit cooler but still well above normal, in the upper 40s.

A strong storm system will move in on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely and some storms could be strong. The Skytrak13 Weather Team will keep you updated on the severe weather potential. Right now, the best chance of severe weather looks to be along the Ohio River Valley.

tuesday am

tuesday afternoon

Much colder air will arrive behind this system, bringing the chance of a few snow showers on Wednesday.

The cold air will stick around through the weekend.

7day

Mild Weekend, Storms Next Week

A decent warm up arrives for the weekend, feeling more like mid March rather than the end of January. It will start out mostly sunny this morning with clouds increasing later this afternoon. Winds will pick up out of the southwest today and it will be a bit breezy at times. Afternoon highs will soar into the low 50s.

TODAY PLANNER

TODAY%27S HIGHS

It will be mostly cloudy this evening and it will continue to be mild. Overnight lows will fall into the low 40s.

Sunday will be cloudy and breezy with gusts around 25 mph. There is a chance of light rain during the afternoon with rain becoming likely by late day.

SUNDAY NOON SUNDAY 5PM

It will still be unseasonably mild, with highs in the low 50s.SUNDAY PLANNER

Rain will taper off early Monday morning with a gradual clearing to mostly sunny skies. It will be a bit cooler but temperatures will still be running more than 10 degrees above average with highs in the upper 40s.

A strong storm system will move in on Tuesday and Wednesday. A deep low pressure system will track across central Indiana, keeping most of Indiana in the warm sector of the storm. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely by Tuesday afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with heavy rain likely. A few snow showers will be likely on the backside of the system early Wednesday. This system is still developing and we will keep you updated on its track and severe potential.

TUESDAY AM

Much colder air will arrive behind the cold front on Wednesday and the cold air will stick around through next weekend.

7DAY

Warm Weekend

It will be chilly but dry for your Friday night plans.  Once the sun goes down, temperatures will fall into the lower 30s.

EVENING

It is going to be warm this weekend, with highs in the 50s on Saturday and Sunday.

highs

HIGHS2

Most of the weekend will be dry.  There is a chance for a few showers Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.  Here is the latest timing with FutureTrak13.

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Weekend Warm Up

Today we will see a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across Central Indiana.  Our average high this time of year is 36, so we’ll be just a few degrees above that.

friday today

Overnight skies become partly cloudy with lows in the low 30s.

friday lows

The warmer weather moves in starting Saturday as highs reach the low 50s.  So far we’ve had 5 days of 50 degree weather this month, and we could a few more before the month ends.

friday saturday

Sunday clouds will be on the increase with scattered showers and highs in the low to mid 50s.

friday sunday temps

We are not looking for a washout, however afternoon and evening hours will be the best time for rain right now.

friday sunday

Next week starts off wet, with mild temperatures.  Monday rain will stay in the forecast with highs in the mid to upper 40s.

Another 50+ degree day is possible Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms.

By Wednesday colder air moves in and snow showers will be possible.

friday 7 day

Rain and Snow Showers Tonight but 50s This Weekend

The sunshine from earlier today has been replaced with clouds.  We are tracking rain and snow showers for this evening.  The best chance for a few rain and snow showers will be 6pm-11pm.  A few flurries may linger into early Friday north and east of Indianapolis.

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Expect a mix of clouds and sun on Friday, with highs in the range of 35-40 degrees.

planner

50s are in the weekend forecast.  A good part of the weekend will be dry too.  A few scattered showers are possible Sunday afternoon.  We may end up with a wave of steadier rain Sunday night into early Monday.  The stormiest day will be Tuesday, with rain and storms.  We go from 53 on Tuesday afternoon to 19 degrees by Thursday morning.  There will be snow showers possible on Wednesday.

7DAY

Chance of Snow Today

Today we’ll see cloudy skies across Central Indiana with a chance for morning flurries and a few afternoon snow showers.

thursday today

There may be a very light coating in some areas.  Highs will reach the upper 30s.  Our average high this time of year is 36.

thursday futuretrak 5pmthursday futuretrak 8pm

Tonight flurries are possible through the evening, as skies become partly cloudy and overnight lows fall into the mid 20s.

thursday lows

Friday begins our day of change as we tap into more sunshine and highs near 40.

thursday friday

Saturday will be beautiful and mild with highs in the low 50s and partly cloudy skies.

Sunday won’t be a washout, but there is a chance of scattered showers.

Rain chances remain in the forecast through Tuesday as mild temps stick around too.

Early indications are that cooler air will begin to move in Wednesday and late next week.

thursday 7 day

A Couple of Chances Flurries and Snow Showers

There will be a few flurries and snow showers possible overnight.  Any accumulations will be minor (maybe a quick coating).  Where we do get a few bursts of snow, there might be a few slick roads.  There is another fast moving weather system that will bring another chance for snow showers Thursday afternoon and evening.  The average high for the end of January is 36 degrees.  We will be close to that on Thursday, with highs 35-40 degrees.  We are also tracking a chance for flurries and a few snow showers.  We are not forecasting much of this to stick.  Under a steadier burst of snow, a quick coating will be possible.

planner rpm rpm2 RPM3

The bigger story continues to be 50s in the weekend forecast.  The warm-up arrives on Saturday and will last through early next week.

There is a chance for a few showers later Sunday into Monday.  We are timing the steadiest rain for Tuesday.

7DAY