Archive for SkyTrak Weather Blog
We have been watching some rain and thunderstorms move into Indiana on Live Doppler 13 this morning. Look for more rain late morning, intensifying in the afternoon, and moving out toward sunset. It looks like the Indianapolis Indians have a pretty good night, all in all , for baseball against the Columbus Clippers at Victory Field.
Those storms will push south toward the Ohio River Wednesday and Thursday… allowing for mostly dry conditions both day and highs near 80.A renewed surge of scattered storms arrive during the Friday as the boundary buckles back northward into the state along with a upper disturbance. Right now, it looks like we will have more dry weather than wet weather over the weekend but keep checking with us as we head into the big 4th weekend.By the way, yesterdays rain kicks out monthly total up to 8.36″ which is good for the 7th wettest June on record… and wettest June in 5 years.
CENTRAL INDIANA WEATHER HISTORY
1877: Waverly, Franklin, and St. Paul…a tornado struck killing 10. The tornado picked up a school near Waverly and moved it 50 yards down a hill and carried another school across a field scattering its furniture for half a mile.
Rain amounts were feast or famine Monday. An early morning round of rain delivered an inch or more on a line from Bloomfield-Bloomington-Columbus to Richmond. A look at rain amounts for the month of June shows some impressive numbers. Fort Wayne is nearing 12″, Bloomington just shy of 10″ and Indianapolis is over 8″… nearly double the monthly average.
This doesn’t take into account areas outside of these reporting stations… some of which are in the 13″ to near 20″ in parts of Jasper County. Anyway you slice it’s been wet and we need to dry out.
Spotty showers will mostly fizzle out tonight with areas of fog developing heading into Tuesday morning. The arrival of another upper air disturbance from the northwest brings another round of scattered heavy showers and storms. These storms should develop late morning, peak out in the afternoon, and diminish toward sunset.
Latest guidance suggests the boundary for showers and storms will push south toward the Ohio River Wednesday and Thursday… allowing for mostly dry conditions both day and highs near 80. But admittedly there are is a solution that has the frontal depicted below farther north of the Ohio River.
Heading into the holiday weekend this front will make or break outdoor plans. If it stays south then we’ll enjoy mainly dry conditions. However if the boundary stalls north of the Ohio River we’ll be working around showers and storms. There remains some uncertainty on its location and at this time we’ve opted to keep our forecast of isolated afternoon showers/storms going. Even if that solution plays out there will be ample dry time too.
Please check back for updates as this could change greatly in the next five days.
UPDATE: Funnel clouds have been reported in Tippecanoe and Carroll counties… and below are a two examples. These are weak funnels developing within showers, not typical supercell storms that produce tornadoes, that are encountering low level vorticity or wind shear. They are highly unlikely to reach ground level, but are ominous nonetheless.
Image Courtesy of Jessica Bradley
Image Courtesy of Kevin Evans
With a good deal of cloud cover and scattered showers around, temperatures in Central Indiana Monday afternoon were 10-15 degrees below normal. Thankfully no severe weather, which dodged us to the south, and rain has been more miss than hit.
Late this evening into the overnight areas of fog and drizzle will develop as temperatures creep back into the lower 60s. Partial sunshine is possible at times Tuesday before a new round of scattered showers and locally heavy storms develop during afternoon heating.
Latest guidance suggests the boundary for showers and storms will push south toward the Ohio River Wednesday and Thursday… allowing for mostly dry conditions both day and highs near 80.
A renewed surge of scattered storms arrive during the Friday as the boundary buckles back northward into the state along with a upper disturbance. There remains some uncertainty on whether or not this boundary will then again push southward or remain stalled in the state for the holiday weekend.
Indianapolis added another .30″ to the rain gauge since midnight. This pushes the monthly total up to 8.36″ which is good for the 7th wettest June on record… and wettest June in 5 years. An additional half-inch to inch is possible in spots between this evening and Wednesday morning… with additional heavy amounts in play Friday.
Scattered showers and storms remain in the forecast this afternoon after a Monday morning with more record setting rain for the month of June.
Here’s a look at the rain totals through mid morning.
That puts us at the 7th wettest June on record for Indianapolis.
We could add to that total as we go into the afternoon. Highs will reach the mid 70s, below our normal high of 85.
More rain and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop.
Tonight we have to keep rain chances in the forecast for the Indians game as temps remain cool.
The rain is expected to end by midnight, however, we’ll see the chance of a shower or storm at any time on Tuesday.
In the 7 day forecast, this wet pattern continues. As of now for Friday and Saturday holiday plans, I’d plan on isolated showers and thunderstorms. We will be fine tuning the forecast hour by hour as we get closer to the weekend.
We’re enjoying the best day of the week with comfortable humidity and highs near 80 degrees. Clouds are increasing as a quick-moving upper disturbance over western Illinois nears the area… and a few heavy showers have crossed into the state as well.
Much of the precipitation with these lead showers will have a struggle making it past US-231 west of Indy… but we can’t rule out some leftover sprinkles or light showers between now and midnight. But the greatest coverage of storms, and severe weather, will be focused in central/western Illinois back into Missouri where a Tornado Watch is in effect.
As the core of the upper disturbance pivots into the state later tonight we’ll see an increase in coverage of showers and storms heading into the Monday morning. While don’t expect severe weather, there will be locally heavy rainfall. Additional strong to severe storms build during the afternoon heating Monday.
Another round of scattered storms develop Tuesday. Latest model guidance offers differing solutions on where a frontal boundary will stall out. One solution is south of the viewing area… and this would be a drier solution. Another solution is for the front to stall along Central Indiana which would produce more scattered storms Wednesday and Thursday.
For now we’re splitting the difference in the forecast and keeping in a daily chance of showers and storms from Monday into Friday. We’ll continue to keep a mostly dry forecast for the 4th of July… but that is very subject to change within this unsettled pattern. Check back for updates – Sean Ash
Today Central Indiana will get a break from the rain, at least through early evening. Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s today with mostly sunny skies.
We’ll see an increase of clouds tonight, and a chance for storms return to the forecast.
Showers and storms will be with us on and off during the day on Monday. Temperatures Monday will be cool, with highs in the mid 70s. An isolated thunderstorm may be strong.
Through Tuesday up to 1″ of rain looks possible, a few areas under heavier thunderstorms could pick up up to 2″ of rain. We will continue to monitor the flooding concern.
River Flood Warnings are extensive and will remain up until further notice. Moderate flooding is likely and if you live in a flood prone region we recommend you keep track of river levels the next few days.
A daily chance for showers and thunderstorms remains in the 7 day forecast, however those chances become more isolated Friday and Saturday. We’ll keep you posted on the exact timing as you plan your Fourth of July festivities.
Finally Central Indiana of mainly dry conditions, though a few sprinkles or light showers remain possible well northeast of Indianapolis. Unfortunately many rivers and creeks remain out of their banks due to the excessive rainfall yesterday.
Below is just a sampling of several cities in Central Indiana that neared or eclipsed the average monthly rainfall June in mainly less than 12 hours! So it’s no surprise to see these viewer photos of extensive flooding from Kokomo, Sharpsville, Pendleton and Marion.
Areal Flood Warnings remain up until 10pm for a good portion of the Indy metro area and I-70/74 corridors. River Flood Warnings are extensive and will remain up until further notice. Moderate flooding is likely and if you live in a flood prone region we recommend you keep track of river levels the next few days.
Otherwise we’re experiencing late April/early May weather here in late June with temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s! Clouds clear overnight and set the stage for a refreshingly cool night in the 50s. Plenty of sunshine to finish the weekend tomorrow with highs nearing 80 degrees.
A quick-moving upper disturbance may spread in a few showers toward sunset…but chances are low at the moment. Higher rain and thunder chances return Sunday night into Monday and mark the beginning of another unsettled stretch with daily chances of storms.
For the month of June Indianapolis has picked up 8.06″ of rain making this the 8th wettest June on record so far and wettest month in over two years. The wettest June was back in 1875 with 12.21″ of rain. Computer model guidance has another half-inch to inch on average the next 72 hours… with locally higher amounts in stronger storms very possible.
Storm chances may taper heading into July 4th but I caution that the forecast that far out can change drastically. Check back for updates – Sean Ash
The heaviest rain has pushed out of Central Indiana, but lingering showers are still expected today. Standing water will continue to be an issue as much of Central Indiana picked up 1-3″+ of rain over the last 24 hours.
For the month of June, Indianapolis has picked up 8.06″ of rain making this the 8th wettest June on record so far.
The wettest June was back in 1875 with 12.21″ of rain. With more rain on the way before the end of the month, we could move up higher in the record books.
It will be a cool and breezy Saturday with highs struggling to hit 70 degrees with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers through late afternoon.
Tonight skies clear and temps turn cool, falling into the mid 50s.
Sunday will be nice and sunny with highs in the upper 70s.
Our next chance for rain and storms returns Monday, and we have a daily chance for rain through Friday.