Archive for SkyTrak Weather Blog
Many of you are waking up to at least 4″ of snowfall this morning, with several mores to go. Officially the National Weather Office is up to 4.1″… marking the city’s heaviest snowfall since Valentine’s Day of 2014 (5.5″).
Based on radar trends, and what’s already fallen, we’ve upped the snowfall forecast in southern Indiana to reflect to lack of sleet up to this point. Bottom line is that a big chunk of the viewing area will receive between 5″ and 7″… with locally heavier amounts very likely.
Snowfall rates should taper area wide by 8am with a secondary surge of snow anticipated late morning into early afternoon. By then temperatures should be in the upper 20s and lower 30s and salt will be much more effective. However this morning roadways are snow covered and very slick. Travel will be challenging until snow rates ease and the sun comes up.
Snowfall ends by 5pm this afternoon and the focus shifts to more record-breaking cold next week. Kelly Greene and I are on air from 6am to 10am this morning, with cut-ins during the Today Show from 7am-8am. Be safe – Sean Ash
Winter Storm Warning Now – 7pm Saturday
Right on cue heavy snow impacting all of Central Indiana now and will occasionally falls at one to two inches per hour. The heaviest rates will be from now until 8am today. Most of the I-70 and I-74 corridors receive 5-7″ with locally higher amounts very possible. Travel will be challenging with snow covered roads.
We still anticipate sleet to possibly lower totals in southern Indiana where we have an updated 3-5″ forecast. However… it should be noted that if sleet is limited than final snowfall accumulations will be significantly higher. The area south of Bloomington and Columbus is where we have lowest confidence in the forecast due to the sleet uncertainty.
Snow tapers for a bit after 8am but additional snow is likely heading into midday with lighter accumulations as temperatures warm into the upper 20s and lower 30s. At least you’ll be able to get out and enjoy the snow for a change with the brief break from the dangerous cold.
Record cold returns next week with several mornings well below zero with dangerous wind chills. Temperatures will remain 20 to 30 degrees below normal heading into next weekend.
More updates to come – Sean Ash
The SkyTrak13 Weather Team continues to track a developing winter storm. A winter storm warning is in effect for most of central Indiana until 7pm Saturday. It is a winter weather advisory for Logansport, Peru, Marion and Hartford City. We are forecasting a widespread 3-6 inch snowfall for central Indiana. We do think most of central Indiana will be on the high end of that range. The totals will be closer to 3-4 for Lafayette to Kokomo and Marion. We have 1-3 inch snowfall potential for Bedford, Seymour and North Vernon due to the potential for freezing rain. This is where this winter storm gets tricky. There should be a layer of warmer air above the surface changing the snow to freezing rain across the southern part of the state. We will watch this closely and adjust snowfall potential if needed.
The winter storm is arriving on schedule. The leading edge was in SW Indiana at 10pm. We are still forecasting the heaviest snow from about midnight through 7am. Travel will be difficult through at least Saturday afternoon. Allow extra time and remember your winter safety kit if you have travel plans for Saturday. Here is the latest timing with FutureTrak13.
From snow to 2 rounds of arctic air, it is cold and snowy 7 day forecast.
In the extended forecast, we are tracking 2 more rounds of arctic air. The first will arrive later Sunday and drop temperatures below zero Monday and Tuesday mornings. The second will be here later Wednesday and drop temperatures below zero Thursday and Friday mornings.
There is another chance for snow along that arctic front Tuesday night.
All of central Indiana is now under a winter storm warning from 7pm Friday through 7pm Saturday. Snowfall potential is 3-6+ inches. We will be tracking this hour by hour for you through Saturday night. Right now we are forecasting the steadiest snow to fall from about midnight through 7am Saturday, with another wave possible during the afternoon. I will have updated timing a little later this afternoon, so stay tuned for updates.
The arctic air is somewhat easing, and now our attention is turned to accumulating snow in Central Indiana this weekend.
Highs will reach the low 20s today with mostly cloudy skies, there could be a few flurries or snow showers too.
Tonight winter storm warning and advisories go into place.
Our main chance for snow will ramp up tonight. After 10pm snow is expected to move in and last through Saturday afternoon. Here’s how the hour by hour forecast plays out through FutureTrak13.
It does appear that sleet / ice / rain could mix in, in our southern counties, if that happens, snow totals will be reduced there. We will be watching this very closely. This is our latest thinking of snow totals, again, this could change depending on the type of precip that falls.
The take away from this forecast is that travel Saturday will be messy. Expect slick roads, limited visibility and changing conditions if you are doing any long distance traveling.
In the 7 day forecast, another arctic blast is headed our way early next week.
It’s definitely rare air across Central Indiana. Indianapolis was just shy of tying a record low this morning, and the city will break the record cold high for this date. In fact… this is the coldest high this late in the season since 1963.
Adding insult to the cold the misery are the dangerous wind chills that have hovered around -10 to -20 all afternoon. They’ll remain bitter this evening but the wind overall will diminish tonight. But the Wind Chill Advisory continues until 11am Friday. The lighter wind allows greater raditional cooling tonight and lows will be much colder in some locations.
The lighter wind allows greater raditional cooling tonight and lows will be much colder in some locations. We’re anticipating much of south central Indiana to be the -10 to possibly -20 range for actual temperatures. This is due to deeper snow pack in this area. Indianapolis’ forecast low of -7 will challenge the daily record set in 1885.
Highs Friday will be “warmer” but significantly below the average which is the lower 40s for late February. Temperatures climb into the upper teens and lower 20s and won’t drop Friday night due increasing overcast.
Light snow is possible by sunset tomorrow and we’re still in play for accumulating snow and/or ice in the viewing area. The timing would be Friday night into Saturday evening. Please note there is high uncertainty on track and significant divergence in model solutions at this point. We just can’t get to specific about timing and amounts. However I will say that most model solutions today show a weaker, more suppressed, system than prior runs… and have shifted the more “juicier” moisture fields farther south across Kentucky.
Regardless of strength… all models advertise a quicker system that departs by 12am Sunday. This will be followed by another impressive shot of bitter air next week. We’re staring down multiple mornings in the single digits and a few below zero again too.
Future forecasts may include Winter Weather Advisories or Winter Storm Watches for parts of Central Indiana. Check back tomorrow for updates – Sean Ash