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Dec
17

Light Snow Thursday With Bigger Storm Potential Next Week

Posted By · December 17, 2014 at 1:10 pm

Central Indiana remains stuck under a thick blanket of overcast and this keeps temperatures locked in the 20s.  We’re currently 15-20 degrees colder than 24 hours ago and wind chills in the teens make it “feel” 30 degrees colder than Tuesday.

TEMPS WIND CHILL RADAR

Flurries continue to fly within the colder air and remain possible into the afternoon.  Clouds likely hang tough the next 24 to 36 hours with an approaching upper level disturbance from the southwest.  This feature, though weakening when it arrives, will spread some flurries and light snow into the state Thursday.  Though light, some grassy accumulations in spots by the evening are a possibility.  With sub-freezing temperatures we can’t rule out some slick spots in any heavier bursts that might occur.

PLANNER EVENING PLANNER THURSDAY

Seasonably cold air remains in place Friday and this weekend with another shot of light snow impacting the southern half of the state Saturday.  It appears the brunt of this weak system misses a majority of the viewing area, but it’s close enough to warrant the mention of light snow.

HEADLINES

 Long range indicators show the possibility of a bigger storm to impact the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes the middle of next week.  Both the Euro and GFS models show a very deep (strong) area of low pressure over the Great Lakes 7pm Wednesday or Christmas Eve.  This ups the ante for wind-whipped snow Christmas Eve and White Christmas hopes in central Indiana next week.  While it’s much too early for specifics, the likelihood of some sort of mid-latitude storm continues to increase.   Definitely check back for updates as this could potentially have impact on holiday traveling.

EURO MODEL GFS MODEL 7DAY

Stay tuned and thanks for visiting the blog – Sean Ash

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Dec
17

Cold Temperatures Settle In

Posted By · December 17, 2014 at 4:04 am

Much colder air has arrived, and it’s settling in for the extended forecast.  This morning some patchy freezing drizzle is possible, and with temps below freezing, a few slick spots on roads will be possible.

Highs will only reach the freezing mark today.  However, it will feel colder with wind chills in the teens and 20s.  Cloudy skies will be likely with a few breaks of sunshine possible late in the day.

new wednesday today

Tonight temperatures fall into the low to mid 20s with partly cloudy skies.

new wednesday tonight

Thursday the clouds remain, and so do the cold temperatures.  There’s a chance for a few snow showers in the afternoon.  At this point just a little accumulation of grassy areas looks possible.

new wendesday thurday

We’re watching for light accumulating snow in the 7 day forecast on Saturday, and next Tuesday a wintry mix needs to be watched into Wednesday.  We’ll keep you posted.

new wednesday 7 day

 

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Dec
16

Tracking Cold Air and Snow Chances

Posted By · December 16, 2014 at 10:08 pm
The cold rain from Tuesday transitioned into some sleet and light snow Tuesday night.  There will still be a few pockets of light snow and sleet through about midnight.  By late evening, temperatures were below freezing and morning temperatures will be in the 20s.  It will be cold enough for a few slick roads early Wednesday.  A few lingering flurries are possible too.
lows planner'
Mostly cloudy skies are in the Wednesday forecast, with highs only in the lower and middle 30s.  This chill will last the rest of the week.  Lows will be in the 20s and highs are forecast in the 30s.
There is a weather system to watch on Thursday.  Most of the rain and snow will fall to our west, but it some of it sticks together there will be a few snow showers across central Indiana on Thursday.
rpm rpm2
Friday will be dry, with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the 30s.  We are still tracking a weekend weather system that brings a chance for snow on Saturday.  Minor accumulations are possible.  We will know more, as we get closer to the weekend.
7DAY FORECAST
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Dec
16

Damp Day With Snow Chances Ahead

Posted By · December 16, 2014 at 1:52 pm

It’s a damp, blustery day across Central Indiana with wind chills in dropping through the 30s.

PLANNER EVENING LOWS TONIGHT

Clouds, showers and areas of drizzle hang tough heading into the evening.  A wind shift the west-northwest delivers much colder air overnight into Wednesday morning.

Expect lows to drop in the mid/upper 20s with some flurries possible by the Wednesday morning commute.  Clouds hang tough tomorrow, though there’s some hope for peeks of sun tomorrow afternoon.  Highs tomorrow will be seasonably cold in the lower 30s and the chilly air hangs around heading into the weekend.

PLANNER WEDNESDAY HIGHS TOMORROW RPM THURSDAY 7AM

A quick moving disturbance brings a chance of flurries and light snow Thursday afternoon/evening… and I’m not ruling out a grassy accumulation for some by sunset Thursday.  This is not a big system, but perhaps enough to cause slick spots with highs near freezing.

RPM THURSDAY 11AM PLANNER THURSDAY

For the month Indianapolis has only had a trace of snowfall and just under 3″ for the season thus far… which is 5″ below this time last year.

SNOW STATS

We continue to keep close tabs on a weather system arriving to begin the weekend.  At the very least we expect a period of light snow Saturday… and possibly enough to accumulate and make for slick travel.  There is still considerable uncertainty on the evolution/strength of this feature and exactly where the heaviest snow will occur.  So remain on watch from the I-70 corridor to Central Kentucky for potential holiday travel trouble Friday night and during the day Saturday.  The rest of the weekend looks quiet and cold with highs near freezing.

WEEKEND 7DAY FORECAST

Long range indicators suggest a cold set up to arrive by or just after Christmas Day and possibly linger into 2015.  The transition to this pattern could carve out a decent mid-latitude storm.  Something to monitor heading into the holiday.  Have a great day and check back for updates regarding the Saturday snow potential – Sean Ash

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Dec
16

Damp Day Ahead with Colder Air on the Way

Posted By · December 16, 2014 at 3:46 am

A mild, damp day is ahead for Central Indiana with a big temperature plunge coming our way by Wednesday morning.

We’ll likely reach our high temps this morning across the state in the mid to upper 40s, with temps nearly steady if not slightly falling for the afternoon.

tuesday today

The best chance of rain is this morning, but we can’t rule out spotty showers or drizzle for the afternoon.  It will be a breezy afternoon with winds out of the west up to 25mph.

tuesday 430

As temps fall tonight any lingering moisture could turn into a few flurries.  Temps really turn chilly tonight as we fall into the mid 20s.

If you’re craving sunshine, our best chance at getting a few rays will be Wednesday and Thursday with a mix of sun and clouds and highs only in the low 30s.

Late Friday into Saturday we’re watching for the possibility of light snow.  We’ll keep you posted as we get closer to the weekend.

tuesday 7 day

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Dec
15

Scattered Showers and More Cold Air This Week

Posted By · December 15, 2014 at 4:27 pm
Scattered showers are in the forecast through Tuesday.  This will be rain and not snow, with temperatures steady in the lower and middle 40s.  We are tracking falling temperatures later in the day Tuesday.  As the colder air arrives, the light rain may mix with a few flurries later Tuesday.
rpm rpm2 rpm3 planner

The chill will last through the end of the week, as we forecast highs in the lower and middle 30s and lows in the 20s.  Our only hope for some sun breaking through the clouds will be later Wednesday and Thursday.

There is a weak weather system to watch for the start of the weekend.  There is a chance for some light snow later Friday night into Saturday.  This system is still developing and we will keep you updated on the timing and the chance for light snow this weekend.

7DAY

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Dec
14

Wet Start To The Week And The Finish Could Be Wintry

Posted By · December 14, 2014 at 11:27 pm

We’re wrapping up the warmest day of December in Indianapolis.  Highs neared 50 degrees and temperatures will remain nearly 10 degrees above average until Tuesday afternoon.

VISIBILITY FOG FORECAST

Cloud cover ensures mild Monday morning lows near 40 degrees.  It appears areas of dense fog will increase over Central Indiana too… possibly causing some slower travel times during the early day commute.

Though Monday begins dry, take the umbrella heading out the door with showers increasing in the afternoon.  It wouldn’t stun me to hear some thunder late tomorrow with decent lift over the region associated with an upper level low.

PLANNER MONDAY MORNING RPM MON 9AM RPM MON NOON RPM MON 5PM PLANNER MONDAY AFTERNOON RPM TUE 12AM

Showers remain likely Monday night into predawn Tuesday.  Tuesday looks to be a misty day with early day highs in the 45 to near 50 range, and then falling temperatures after the passage of cold front Tuesday afternoon.

RPM TUE 7AM RPM TUE 4PM RPM WED 7AM

This delivers seasonably cold air for mid-week with highs dropping into the lower 30s.  Wednesday is our best shot of sunshine before we quickly focus winter weather potential to finish the week.

RPM WED 7PM HIGHS WEDNESDAY

We continue to monitor next weekend closely with the potential for wintry weather to impact holiday traveling in the Ohio Valley.  There remains a high level of uncertainty regarding track, strength and precipitation type.  But it should be noted some model solutions indicate accumulation of either snow, sleet and freezing rain between Central Indiana and Southern Kentucky.

NEXT WEEKEND SYSTEM

NEXT WEEKEND

EURO-21

Even if we get a glancing blow by this system, the trusted European model hints of a strong coastal storm late Saturday into Sunday.  If this verifies it would pose serious air travel problems on a busy holiday travel weekend.

HEADLINES

Since the forecast is highly changeable we advise you to check back with us frequently for updates.  Have a great week – Sean Ash

7DAY

Check back for updates as this would impact holiday travel plans – Sean Ash

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Dec
14

Mild Night Followed By Return Of Rain Monday Afternoon

Posted By · December 14, 2014 at 5:51 pm

Despite overcast it’s been the warmest day of December for Indianapolis.  Afternoon highs neared 50 degrees and nearly 10 degrees above average.

TEMP TREND HIGHS TODAY PLANNER EVENING

Cloud cover ensures temperatures stay milder than normal overnight.  Monday morning lows near 40 degrees are near the average high for this time of year.

RPM MON 12AM RPM MON 11AM RPM MON 5PM

Monday:  An increasing wind tomorrow will help mix up the atmosphere and disperse the high levels of ground pollutants that plagued the region this weekend.  Monday begins dry but take the umbrella as you head out the door with showers increasing in the afternoon.  Expect another milder than normal day tomorrow with highs in the upper 40s to near 50.

PLANNER MONDAY RPM TUE 7AM RPM TUE 4PM

Showers remain likely Monday night into predawn Tuesday.  Tuesday looks to be a misty day with early day highs in the 45 to near 50 range, and then falling temperatures after the passage of cold front Tuesday afternoon.  This delivers seasonably cold air for mid-week with highs dropping into the lower 30s.

RPM TUESDAY 4PM RPM WEDNESDAY 7AM RPM MID WEEK

We continue to monitor next weekend closely with the potential for a disruptive winter system moving across the Ohio Valley.  There remains a high level of uncertainty regarding track, strength and precipitation.  But it warrants attention with some model solutions indicating a possible snow accumulation between Central Indiana and Southern Kentucky.  The trusted European model has been the most persistent from run-to-run and paints a stormy set up for the northeast next Sunday.

EURO EURO 2 EURO 3

The GFS (American Model) has been more inconsistent and has a warmer solution (farther north) and mixed precipitation for Central Indiana.  It’s still very early in the forecasting game… but no doubt something’s brewing heading into next weekend.  We’ll update as needed.  For now we continue to mention the chance of accumulating snow for Saturday.  Remember that timing, track, and strength are all highly changeable between now and next weekend.

GFS 7DAY

Check back for updates as this would impact holiday travel plans – Sean Ash

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