Archive for SkyTrak Weather Blog
Good morning, and let’s all welcome the Alberta Clipper to town!
Be prepared for a day of change in weather. Rain moves in this morning and eventually will change to snow. That change to snow will happen earlier the farther north you are. This means the change to snow by late morning north of Indianapolis. Where the change to snow happens first is where the higher snowfall potential is.
There is a winter weather advisory in effect from Kokomo to Tipton, Muncie and Richmond. In the advisory area, 4+ inches of snow is possible. Just south of this line, 2-4 inches of snow is in the forecast for Crawfordsville, Noblesville and Greenfield. We have 1-2 inches of snow in the forecast for Indianapolis. South of Indianapolis, the totals will be an inch or less. Look for the rain to change to snow in parts of the Metro around 4pm or anytime after.
Monday will be dry and colder, with lows in the teens and highs in the 20s. There are a couple of weather systems to watch for next week. Flurries and light snow are possible on Tuesday and a rain/snow mix is possible Wednesday night through Thursday.
The weather system is scheduled to arrive early Sunday. It will start as rain for much of central Indiana, with the change to snow forecast to happen between noon and 2pm. That change to snow will happen earlier the farther north you are. This means the change to snow by late morning north of Indianapolis. Where the change to snow happens first is where the higher snowfall potential is.
There is a winter weather advisory in effect from Lafayette to Kokomo to Tipton, Muncie and Richmond. In the advisory area, 4+ inches of snow is possible. Just south of this line, 2-4 inches of snow is in the forecast for Crawfordsville, Noblesville and Greenfield. We have 1-2 inches of snow in the forecast for Indianapolis. South of Indianapolis, the totals will be an inch or less. Here is the timing with FutureTrak13.
Monday will be dry and colder, with lows in the teens and highs in the 20s. There are a couple of weather systems to watch for next week. Flurries and light snow are possible on Tuesday and a rain/snow mix is possible Wednesday night through Thursday. We will keep you updated.
Let’s look for at least a little sunshine later today as highs get close to 40 degrees over most of Central Indiana. The next round of weather comes in tomorrow as a fast moving Alberta Clipper moves into Indiana.
Light snow is possible early Sunday, especially as folks are headed to church and especially north of Indianapolis. We will then see rain and a mix of snow and rain over parts of the region. As the low moves into the state, moving north or south 50 miles could change snow amounts. Right now our forecast for much of the metro seeing amounts to 1″, 1-2″ just north of I-74 to Kokomo, and 2-4″ from Monticello-Peru-Marion to Fort Wayne.
We’ll have the latest on any changes during the day.
Stubborn low clouds put the kibosh on temperatures reaching the 40s today. Instead many areas remained locked in the lower to mid 30s this afternoon.
We’re monitoring the northern fringe of a vast precipitation shield that may drop some light snow over the southern tier counties… including cities like Seymour, Bedford and possibly North Vernon. But for the most part clouds have more bark than bite this evening and tonight.
This system quickly exits the region shortly after midnight but we’ll see residual cloud cover overnight. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Saturday is quiet and slightly warmer with sky conditions varying from cloudy to partly sunny. Highs near 40 degrees tomorrow, providing enough breaks occur.
Then all eyes focus on a well advertised clipper system that arrives Sunday. Light snow is possible by sunrise that day and then we’ll see a mix of snow and rain over parts of the region. At this point the exact track remains uncertain and confidence is low due to some model spread on various low pressure tracks. I’ve decided to split the difference of the far southern most track and the far northern most track. Keep in mind a northern track leads to more mixing/rain and less snow… and more southern track puts higher snow amounts in play. As always we’ll fine tune as new guidance comes into the forecast center.
Subject to change but the initial forecast for Indy is an inch or less… with some rain expecting to mix in from time to time. Just north of I-74 to Lafayette-Kokomo-Muncie, and 2-4″ from Monticello-Peru-Marion to Fort Wayne. This is a LOW CONFIDENCE forecast due to the track uncertainty, potential mixing of rain, and expected surface temperatures above freezing.
Check back as this will likely change between now and Sunday. Another feature of interest is the latest European model at 240 hours out. Yes… it’s a LONG way out. But it is showing a bitterly cold air mass from a cross-polar flow that would rival our coldest of the winter to arrive Super Bowl Sunday. We’ll see if it verifies. Stay tuned – Sean Ash
Thursday marks the first time in seven days high temperatures didn’t hit 40 degrees. For a change it actually looked and felt more like January due to a healthy blanket of overcast covering central Indiana.
This cloud deck will partially break overnight to allow temperatures to eventually bottom-out in the middle 20s. A few icy patches are possible Friday morning with any leftover moisture on roadways.
Friday and Saturday feature varying amounts of cloud cover and afternoon highs in the lower 40s. This precedes a clipper system that will impact the region Sunday into Monday. The trend continues on a northern track with this feature… putting most of the region on its warmer, wetter side Sunday afternoon.
We believe rain is more likely than snow with temperatures climbing into the lower and mid-40s Sunday afternoon. Though rain will mix with or changeover to a period of snow Sunday night into early Monday morning… accumulation will be very light locally. However several inches will fall between Fort Wayne and Detroit. Be cautious if you’re traveling north or coming home from that way Sunday.
This is not great news for snow lovers in Central Indiana. Indianapolis is 8″ below normal snowfall since July 1st (the “snow season”) and a whopping 28″ less than last year’s mammoth winter season. Amarillo’s recent snow storm dumped 12″ in the past 24 hours… which is greater than Louisville, Evansville and Indianapolis COMBINED.
A below normal chill arrives in the wake of the coming clipper system early early next week… though it’s certainly nothing terribly cold. Highs will be in the 25 to 30 range Monday and Tuesday with lows in the teens. Upper level energy pivoting across the region embedded in a trough may trigger some light snow Tuesday. But no big snow-makers are in the 7 day forecast at this point. Have a great evening – Sean Ash
The rain and snow has ended, for the most part in Indiana, but because temperatures have cooled off, we’re looking at some icy spots and slick roads in the area. Later today, that won’t be an issue as highs reach the upper 30s. We have the forecast dry weather through the start of the weekend. Lows will be in the middle 20s and forecast highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Friday and Saturday.
Our strange weather pattern changes on Sunday. We are tracking a fast moving clipper for the end of the weekend. There is a chance that some of the snow we get could stick to the ground Sunday into early Monday. As we get closer to Sunday we’ll be able to see if the system comes over the central part of the state and if it does, how much snow we’ll see add up.
The weather pattern gets tricky on Sunday. We are tracking a fast moving weather system for the end of the weekend. There is a chance for accumulating snow Sunday into early Monday. It is still a bit early for snowfall potential, due to the uncertainty of the track and available moisture. We will keep you updated.
Good Wednesday morning Central Indiana. We begin on a foggy note with areas of low visibility and mist for the morning commute. Temperatures should stay at or slightly above freezing. Though widespread icing isn’t likely, some slick patches are possible… especially in northern Indiana. Might be a good idea to add a little extra time to your drive this morning.
Temperatures later today again climb above normal. Expect highs in the lower to mid 40s from Indy and points southward, with mid to upper 30s farther north in thicker cloud cover. A quick-moving disturbance will ride across the state and bring in a period of rain/snow showers.
We don’t envision any significant accumulation and with temperatures well above freezing later today roads will be mostly wet. Lows drop back into the 20s overnight so some refreezing is possible for the Thursday morning commute.
Above normal temperatures continue into Friday and Saturday. We’ll need to keep close tabs on a southern system Friday night-Saturday. Though it should stay south of the Ohio River… recent model trends have been coming farther north. We continue to target Sunday afternoon into predawn Monday for a better “chance” of snow potential with a clipper system. Safe travels this morning – Sean Ash