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Jul
25

Timing Weekend Storm Chances

Posted By · July 25, 2014 at 4:36 pm
The weekend is here and the forecast is tricky for outdoor plans and there lots of outdoor events this weekend.  We are tracking storm chances from Friday night through Sunday night.  It will not rain all weekend, so download the WTHR weather app and track the storms with us, as they develop on Live Doppler 13 Radar.  It will be a great resource due to the scattered nature of the storm chances.
The forecast for Saturday is warm and humid, with scattered storms possible.
PLANNER HIGHS

The weekend will be warmer and more humid too, with highs in the middle and upper 80s on Saturday and Sunday.  Scattered storms are in the forecast and there is a slight risk for severe weather both days.  The following graphics are FutureTrak 13 timing the storm chances for the weekend.  There will be some changes to the timing and we will bring you those changes as we get new information.

RPM RPM2 RPM3

RPM4 RPM5 RPM6 RPM7

Much cooler air arrives early next week.  We may near record lows Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, as we forecast temperatures in the lower 50s.  Highs will only be in the 70s Monday through Thursday.

7DAY

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Jul
25

Weekend Changes For The Brickyard!

Posted By · July 25, 2014 at 3:27 am

Hard to believe the mornings in July could get any cooler, but it is really brisk out there today. Fortunately, we are expecting lots of sun today, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. You might need the jacket if you are going to IMS for the Brickyard 400 events on Friday morning. You won’t need the jacket in the afternoon, but you will need the sunblock and sunglasses. These are good things to remember if you are going to Colts Camp in Anderson on Friday afternoon.

The weekend forecast is warmer, with highs in the range of 85-90 degrees. Not only will it be warmer but we are expecting thunderstorms. Look for our forecasts during the day on WTHR-TV. Saturday morning will be a prime time for storms and a front on race day Sunday threatens afternoon storms for the Brickyard 400 as a cold front rolls through the state.

Behind that cold front, there will be a big drop in temperature for the last few days of July. We are only forecasting highs in the lower 70s on Monday and Tuesday.

On This Date in Central Indiana Weather History……

1934 : Indianapolis…The all time record high temperature for the city is set at 107 degrees.

Daypartextended

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Jul
24

Temperature Swings and Weekend Storm Chances

Posted By · July 24, 2014 at 3:10 pm

Central Indiana is getting another taste of Fall in July.  Temperatures on Thursday afternoon are only in the 70s and about 10 degrees cooler than average.  It will be a cool Thursday evening for our Indianapolis Indians at Victory Field and for the Lady Antebellum concert at Klipsch Music Center.  Temperatures will be in the lower 70s to start and then fall into the 60s as the sun sets.

event

Skies will be mostly clear Thursday night, with lows forecast in the lower and middle 50s.  It will be a cool start to Friday.  There is lots of sun in the Friday forecast, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.  You might need the jacket if you are going to IMS for the Brickyard 400 events on Friday morning.  You won’t need the jacket in the afternoon, but you will need the sunblock and sunglasses.  These are good things to remember if you are going to Colts Camp in Anderson on Friday afternoon.

lows event2 HIGHS

The weekend forecast is warmer, with highs in the range of 85-90 degrees.  There will also be a few complexes of storms.  The latest analysis and timing shows the first complex late Friday night and early Saturday morning.  This will mean some dry hours Saturday afternoon and evening.  Another complex is forecast for late Saturday night and early Sunday morning.  This complex should move out for a few dry hours on Sunday too.  A cold front arrives later Sunday and a few more storms will be possible.  This is just the latest analysis and there will be changes to the timing.  We will keep you updated leading up to the weekend and all weekend long.

RPM RPM2 RPM3

RPM4 RPM5 weekend

Behind that cold front, there will be a big drop in temperature for the last few days of July.  We are only forecasting highs in the lower 70s on Monday and Tuesday.

7DAY

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Jul
23

Record Rainfall To Areas Of Dense Fog Tonight

Posted By · July 23, 2014 at 4:15 pm

It was a record breaking rainfall for Indianapolis today.  1.61″ is the new daily record and many locations in the metro area and southward received 1-2″ from rounds of showers and storms.

RECORD

In just a few hours the city nearly doubled the rainfall from the first 22 days of the month… this was truly what the doctor ordered for what was becoming parched landscape around the area.

RAINREPORTS

Unfortunately cities like Lafayette, Terre Haute, Muncie and Kokomo fell on the short end of the rain stick with values well less than one inch.  Lingering spotty showers and some rumbles of thunder are possible south of I-70… with a slow clearing to take place from the northwest to southeast.

Dewpoints

Dew points at the time of this posting remained in the tropical category.  So the Muggy Meter this afternoon hangs in the uncomfortable range, but will drop into the pleasant category by Thursday morning as drier air advects into central Indiana.

Dewpoints2 MUGGYMETER rpm

The combination of clouds clearing and saturated ground tonight will produce areas of dense fog and low clouds for the morning commute.  It’s possible visibility may be low enough to near Advisory criteria so check back for updates.

planner planner2

Once morning fog dissipates, Thursday will be one our better days… with sun and clouds, pleasant highs in the 70s and a refreshing breeze.  This is perfect timing for opening Brickyard 400 festivities at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.  Friday will also be nice before an unsettled set up arrives for Brickyard 400 weekend.

rpm1 highs

Highs Friday will be in the upper 70s to near 80, but jump into the upper 80s and lower 90s on the south side of warm front Saturday.  Late Friday night and early Saturday morning this front may trigger the first of a few rounds of storms set to move through this weekend.

highs2

Additional storms are likely Saturday night into Sunday morning and to be determined how quickly they’ll move out during Brickyard 400 Race Day.  Could be a challenging weekend at IMS.  We’ll narrow down timing and coverage in the coming days.

GFSANOMALY

Long range guidance has done but strengthen the idea of considerably below normal temperatures to wrap up the month of July.  The air mass within the base of a sharp trough in the eastern US will deliver temperature anomalies of 10-20 degrees over a good chunk of real estate.

GFSANOMALY2

We may be challenging the record books Monday into Wednesday.  Here’s a list of record low temperatures to keep an eye on next week:

Monday / Record Low Maximum: 72 (set in 1928 & 1925) / Forecast: 72

Tuesday Record Low: 51 (set in 1881) / Forecast: 53

Tuesday / Record Low Maximum: 72 (set in 1889) / Forecast: 71

Wednesday Record Low: 51 (set in 1965) / Forecast: 53

7 day

Have a great evening and please check back for changes – Sean Ash

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Jul
22

Storm Chance Late Tonight And Wednesday

Posted By · July 22, 2014 at 4:37 pm

We’re sweating through an oppressive Muggy Meter today in central Indiana with hot, hazy conditions.  Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s with heat indices firmly in the 90s.

Dewpoints

Patience is required if you’re not a fan of the sticky air, but will be rewarded Wednesday afternoon and evening.

MUGGYMETER SPC

There is a chance of some storms late tonight (after midnight) and toward sunrise Wednesday and northwestern Indiana is under a Slight Risk for severe weather.  But I have serious doubts there will be much storm coverage due to a warm air “lid” over central Indiana.

rpm rpm1 rpm2

Expect very humid conditions to start tomorrow, but drier air arrives in the afternoon after the passage of a cold front around midday.  The transition keeps storm chances in play for areas along, and especially south of I-70.

rpm3 rpm4 planner2

You should notice a refreshing breeze kicking in later in the day that drag in pleasant air for late week.

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Thursday looks like a fine day with sunshine and highs in the mid-70s, which is perfect timing for the beginning Brickyard 400 festivities at IMS.  Expect plenty of sun and comfortable conditions.

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Our coolest temperatures happen Thursday night into Friday morning when many drop into the 50s.  Friday will be warmer as highs near 80.

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JET

Latest model trends point toward a potentially active set up this weekend in central Indiana… with multiple storm complexes possible on the edge of the hot dome centered to our west.  There is much uncertainty on timing and coverage at this point, but know that the first complex may arrive Friday night into Saturday morning.  This set up could have big implications on weekend plans and Brickyard 400 festivities.  Check back for updates.

JET2

As this blog has addressed for several days now, all signs lead to another impressive bout of unseasonably cool air next week… beginning Monday and lasting into the first week of August.

GFSANOMALY

There is general consensus in modeling of a high amplitude trough over the eastern US that would deliver an air mass capable of 10 to 20 degree temperature anomalies.  So we’ll go from near 90 degrees today to highs in the lower to mid 70s this time next week.

GFSANOMALY2 GFSTEMPS

Notice in the image above (GFS ensemble data provided be weatherbell.com) the stretch of lows in the 50s beginning Tuesday and lasting for several days.  This will allow for a nice stretch of A/C free conditions.  However we do need some rain and hopefully your backyard gets some Wednesday or this weekend.

7 day

Thanks for visiting the blog and have a great evening – Sean Ash

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For a change it feels like summer in central Indiana.  This includes hazy sunshine, humid heat in the 80s and a light southwest wind.  In what’s been the coldest July on record for the first 20 days of the month, this is welcomed news by Hoosiers longing for good “pool” weather.

tower

The Muggy Meter continues to creep into the humid to uncomfortable range with dew points in the 60s.  If you’re heading to Victory Field this evening for the Indianapolis Indians it’s a good idea to dress in comfortable clothes.  But it will be a great evening for baseball and anything else outdoors.

Dewpoints INDIANS

Much like the past couple of mornings, areas of locally dense fog will accompany the Tuesday morning commute.  Though it’s difficult to pinpoint exact locations… low-lying areas, riverbeds and valleys are usual suspects for low visibility.

LOWS planner

Any fog will quickly dissipate to allow for a hazy sky.  Temperatures will quickly warm into the lower 80s by 11am and upper 80s between 2-4pm.  For the first time this year Indianapolis may officially hit 90 degrees… snapping the 314 day sub-90 degree day streak.  This is the 8th longest streak in the past 30 years for the city and we’re now a month past the climatological norm for the first 90 degree temperature.

planner2 highs

Regardless of the city technically hits 90 degrees it will certainly feel like with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.  Storms will continue to bypass the central Indiana to the north-northwest tomorrow.  But we’ll monitor a storm initiation along  a cold front late tomorrow evening in the Michiana area for local impact.

rpm rpm1

Our next best chance of rain and storms will be Wednesday.  Though it’s not an ideal set up for severe weather, locally strong storms are possible and heavy rain is likely in any storms that develop.

rpm2 rpm3

By Wednesday evening much of the are will be north side of a cold front and feeling the impacts to the return of northwesterly wind.  This will bring the first of two much cooler than normal spells to the region… but will be tame compared to what’s brewing for the July 28-30 time frame.

rpm4 JET

As noted in the blog yesterday, another sharp atmospheric trough will establish itself over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early next week.  The end result will below normal temperatures and daily chances of showers and storms underneath an upper low.

JET2 ANALOG

Analog data (above) give this forecaster higher than normal confidence on this pattern delivering fall-ish conditions for days 7-10 in the forecast period… with 95% of 105 analogs (similar historical atmospheric conditions) delivering below normal air.  (Map provided by http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/extended.php)

EUROANOMALY

Both the European (above) and GFS (below) models show another air mass capable of producing temperature anomalies of 10-20 degrees below normal.  This would result in near record low maximums next Tuesday and Wednesday.  Stay tuned as we update this trend.

GFSANOMALY GFSTEMPS

Tomorrow is hands down our hottest day of the next couple of weeks.  The graph above is highs/lows from the GFS Ensemble output displays how we’ll most likely be on the cooler side of normal after Tuesday.  (Three images above are courtesy of weatherbell.com)

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The transition to the cool pattern next week may deliver scattered showers and storms this weekend.  Confidence is low at the moment on coverage and timing… but there is potential impact to Brickyard 400 festivities this weekend.  Check back for updates and have a great evening – Sean Ash

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Jul
20

Hottest Air Of The Year Possible Tuesday

Posted By · July 20, 2014 at 5:38 pm

Overall this shaped up to be a decent Sunday in central Indiana with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.  You probably noticed a increase in haze and humidity, and that trend continues the next couple of days.

PLANNER PLANNER2

Areas of locally dense fog develop overnight and will impact the Monday morning commute for some.  Low temperatures range from 60 to 65.  Any fog should quickly depart by late morning, and hazy sun will be the rule of thumb tomorrow.

HIGHS

With highs in the mid to upper 80s and heat indices in the 90s, Monday will be a good pool day… something we haven’t had much of lately.

PLANNER3 HIGHS2

Indianapolis’ streak of sub-90 degree days is up to 313.  There is a chance of snapping the streak Tuesday when temperatures make a run at that elusive number.  Even if we don’t hit 90 it will certainly feel like with heat indices well into the 90s.

RPM RPM2

Our next best chance of rain and storms is late Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon along an approaching cold front.  Some of these storms will produce heavy rain and gusty wind.

RPM3

If we miss 90 degrees Tuesday the streak may continue well past this weekend.  Long range guidance suggesting another unseasonably cool air mass arriving July 28-30… possibly producing temperature anomalies of 10-20 degrees below normal.

EURO

Above is the upper air pattern projected by the European model for next Tuesday.  This shows another pronounced trough/upper low sitting across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley… similar to the set up that produced the chill last week.

GFS

The latest GFS ensemble 850mb (roughly 5,000ft) temperature anomaly map for the same time shows fall-ish conditions returning as well.  It’s far out, but this long range signals agreeing suggest a higher than normal confidence in the day 8-10 outlook.  Below is surface temperatures from the same model Indianapolis.  Notice that 13 of the next 15 days produce below normal highs, and mid-70s may be too “warm” next Tuesday.  It’s something we’ll monitor closely in the week ahead.  (Image above and below courtesy of weatherbell.com)

GFS_ENS

In the short term, after storms on Wednesday we’re in store for a pleasant Thursday and Friday.  Prior to the aforementioned cool spell next week with a period of storms that may impact the Brickyard 400 next Sunday.  We’ll be fine tuning that forecast in the days ahead.

7DAY

  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

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Jul
19

More Sun Sunday

Posted By · July 19, 2014 at 5:35 pm

A few sprinkles fell in east central Indiana this morning.  Here are some of our WeatherBug stations:

wxbug

After a mainly cloudy day, the skies will start to clear out as an area of high pressure builds in.  Patchy dense fog is possible Sunday morning with lows near 60 degrees.

A weak system will continue to push off to the east on Sunday.  This system will keep  just a small chance of a few more sprinkles in our east central viewing area during the afternoon.  Temperatures will climb into the low 80s.

sunday ft

The skies will continue to clear out Sunday night with temperatures falling into the mid 60s, near normal for this time of year.

More heat and more humidity arrives on Monday.  Temperatures will soar into the upper 80s Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

A cold front will arrive on Wednesday, bringing some scattered showers and thunderstorms.  A few lingering showers will be possible on Thursday.

Temperatures will fall back below July averages Thursday on into the weekend.

7day

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