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Jul
01

July In Like A Lamb

Posted By · July 1, 2015 at 3:30 am

Coming off of the 7th wettest June in Indiana history, things are more quiet this morning. A nice northwest wind has made the morning rush hour dry. The Indians play this afternoon and overall, it should be a great day to watch the Tribe play.

Indians

We aren’t ruling out rain and thunderstorms today, but mainly for the southern and southwestern viewing area.  The latest storm track moves a bit further north so we will include a chance for rain and thunderstorms today, mainly south of I-70.

After a mainly dry Thursday, we will look for mainly dry weather Friday into Sunday afternoon.  We’re going to keep isolated afternoon storm chances for the 4th of July and Sunday… but also reiterate that much of the region and most of the day will be dry and warm.

extended

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Jun
30

Shower & Storm Chances Mainly South Next Few Days

Posted By · June 30, 2015 at 11:44 pm

We put the finishing touches on Indianapolis’ 7th wettest June on record with widely scattered strong storms in the southern half of Indiana Tuesday evening.

INDY MONTHLY

 

 

Indianapolis finishes the month with over 8″ of rain… while Fort Wayne had nearly a foot in what’s now its wettest month on record.  Bloomington also finished with over 10″ and I’ve had a few weather watchers in Cass and Clinton counties that had a foot or more.

INDIANA MONTHLY RAIN MONTHLY DEPARTURES PLANNER TOMORROW

Storms exit but a good deal from wildfires in Alaska and Canada lingers tonight with areas of fog developing toward sunrise Wednesday.

Though it’s dry in the morning will be on radar watch again… mainly for the southern and southwestern viewing area.  Latest data indicates a new disturbance will track a bit farther north than advertised yesterday.  This will require a sct’d storm mention in the Indy metro area during the afternoon, but the highest rain/storms tomorrow into Thursday morning will reside south of I-70.

RPM WEDNESDAY 6AM RPM WEDNESDAY 1PM RPM WEDNESDAY 6PM RPM THURSDAY 6AM

After early morning rain in southern Indiana Thursday, much of the region may be rain and storm free heading into the holiday weekend.  We’ll need to monitor exactly where a frontal boundary will stall, but newest data today paints a decent picture Friday into Sunday afternoon.  We’re going to keep isolated afternoon storm chances for the 4th of July and Sunday… but also reiterate that much of the region and most of the day will be dry and warm.

RPM FRIDAY 7PM WEEKEND SETUP PLANNER SATURDAY PLANNER SUNDAY PATTERN

As always it’s a good idea to check back for changes as this upper level trough in the eastern U.S. is conducive to them to changes.  Long range data from the European model hints that the aforementioned trough in the upper levels may linger into mid-July.  This would keep unsettled conditions, numerous rain/storm chances, around the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and cooler than normal conditions.  Stay tuned and have a great night – Sean Ash

PATTERN 2 7DAY

 

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Jun
30

Spotty Strong Storms Next Few Hours

Posted By · June 30, 2015 at 3:49 pm

While many locations enjoy hazy sunshine and highs in the 80s… we continue to monitor the widely scattered potential for strong to severe storms for areas mainly south of I-70.  Damaging wind and large hail along with frequent lightning are the greatest storms threats in these pulse-type storms.

HEADLINES SPC RPM 5PM TODAY RPM 8PM TODAY

 

Most storms should settle southward of Indianapolis by the start of the Indians game this evening with a first pitch at 7:05pm.  The window for storms closely quickly by 8-9pm as the latest upper disturbance dives southward of the region.  Overnight looks hazy, courtesy of smoke from wildfires in Alaska and Canada, with areas of fog developing toward sunrise Wednesday.

PLANNER INDIANS RPM WEDNESDAY 7AM

Though it’s dry in the morning will be on radar watch again… mainly for the southern and southwestern viewing area.  Latest data indicates a new disturbance will track a bit farther north than advertised yesterday.  This will require sct’d storm mention in the Indy metro area during the afternoon, but the highest rain/storms tomorrow into Thursday morning will reside south of I-70.

RPM WEDNESDAY 5PM PLANNER WEDNESDAY RPM THURSDAY 7AM

After early morning rain in southern Indiana Thursday, much of the region may be rain and storm free heading into the holiday weekend.  We’ll need to monitor exactly where a frontal boundary will stall, but newest data today paints a decent picture Friday into Sunday afternoon.  We’re going to keep isolated afternoon storm chances for the 4th of July and Sunday… but also reiterate that much of the region and most of the day will be dry and warm.

RPM FRIDAY 7AM PLANNER SATURDAY PLANNER SUNDAY 7DAY

As always it’s a good idea to check back for changes as this upper level troughiness pattern is conducive to them.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

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Jun
30

Storms Develop this Afternoon

Posted By · June 30, 2015 at 11:22 am

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across Central Indiana this afternoon.  Some storms may be severe along and south of I-70.  The biggest threats will be damaging wind and large hail, along with heavy rain and lightning.

tuesday severe

Highs will reach the upper 70s today.

tuesday today

The afternoon and evening will not be a washout, but you’ll need to check the radar before you head out for any outdoor plans.

This is a view of FutureTrak13 as we go into later today.

tuesday 4pmtuesday 6pm

Tomorrow we should be mainly dry with just a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

tuesday wednesday

More of the same is coming our way Thursday, with shower and storm chances returning Friday.  The holiday weekend doesn’t look like a washout and we will more than likely see more dry time than rain, we will keep you posted as we continue to forecast for the upcoming 4th of July.

tuesday 7 day

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Jun
30

Improving Forecast

Posted By · June 30, 2015 at 3:26 am

We have been watching some rain and thunderstorms move into Indiana on Live Doppler 13 this morning.  Look for more rain late morning, intensifying in  the afternoon, and moving out toward sunset. It looks like the Indianapolis Indians have a pretty good night, all in all , for baseball against the Columbus Clippers at Victory Field.

DaypartIndians

Those storms will push south toward the Ohio River Wednesday and Thursday… allowing for mostly dry conditions both day and highs near 80.A renewed surge of scattered storms arrive during the Friday as the boundary buckles back northward into the state along with a upper disturbance. Right now, it looks like we will have more dry weather than wet weather over the weekend but keep checking with us as we head into the big 4th weekend.By the way, yesterdays rain kicks out monthly total up to 8.36″ which is good for the 7th wettest June on record… and wettest June in 5 years.

extended

 

CENTRAL INDIANA WEATHER HISTORY

1877: Waverly, Franklin, and St. Paul…a tornado struck killing 10. The tornado picked up a school near Waverly and moved it 50 yards down a hill and carried another school across a field scattering its furniture for half a mile.

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Jun
29

More Scattered Heavy Showers/Storms Tuesday

Posted By · June 29, 2015 at 10:51 pm

Rain amounts were feast or famine Monday.  An early morning round of rain delivered an inch or more on a line from Bloomfield-Bloomington-Columbus to Richmond.  A look at rain amounts for the month of June shows some impressive numbers.  Fort Wayne is nearing 12″, Bloomington just shy of 10″ and Indianapolis is over 8″… nearly double the monthly average.

This doesn’t take into account areas outside of these reporting stations… some of which are in the 13″ to near 20″ in parts of Jasper County.  Anyway you slice it’s been wet and we need to dry out.

RAIN TODAY MONTHLY RAIN MONTHLY DEPARTURE LOWS TONIGHT

 

 

Spotty showers will mostly fizzle out tonight with areas of fog developing heading into Tuesday morning.    The arrival of another upper air disturbance from the northwest brings another round of scattered heavy showers and storms.  These storms should develop late morning, peak out in the afternoon, and diminish toward sunset.

RPM TUESDAY 7AM RPM 12PM TUESDAY RPM 2PM TUESDAY RPM TUESDAY 5PM HIGHS TOMORROW PLANNER TUEDAY

Latest guidance suggests the boundary for showers and storms will push south toward the Ohio River Wednesday and Thursday… allowing for mostly dry conditions both day and highs near 80.  But admittedly there are is a solution that has the frontal depicted below farther north of the Ohio River.

RPM WEDNESDAY 4PM RPM THURSDAY 7PM RPM THURSDAY FRONTS

Heading into the holiday weekend this front will make or break outdoor plans.  If it stays south then we’ll enjoy mainly dry conditions.  However if the boundary stalls north of the Ohio River we’ll be working around showers and storms.  There remains some uncertainty on its location and at this time we’ve opted to keep our forecast of isolated afternoon showers/storms going.  Even if that solution plays out there will be ample dry time too.

7DAY

Please check back for updates as this could change greatly in the next five days.

 

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Jun
29

Dodging Downpours This Evening

Posted By · June 29, 2015 at 4:22 pm

UPDATE:  Funnel clouds have been reported in Tippecanoe and Carroll counties… and below are a two examples.  These are weak funnels developing within showers, not typical supercell storms that produce tornadoes, that are encountering low level vorticity or wind shear.  They are highly unlikely to reach ground level, but are ominous nonetheless.

Image Courtesy of Jessica Bradley

FUNNEL CLOUD 2

Image Courtesy of Kevin Evans

FUNNEL CLOUD CLINTON

With a good deal of cloud cover and scattered showers around, temperatures in Central Indiana Monday afternoon were 10-15 degrees below normal.  Thankfully no severe weather, which dodged us to the south, and rain has been more miss than hit.

TEMPS HRRR 7PM HRRR 10PM

 

Late this evening into the overnight areas of fog and drizzle will develop as temperatures creep back into the lower 60s.  Partial sunshine is possible at times Tuesday before a new round of scattered showers and locally heavy storms develop during afternoon heating.

HRRR 5AM TUESDAY PLANNER TUESDAY RPM 7AM TUESDAY RPM 2PM TUESDAY RPM 7PM TUESDAY RPM WEDNESDAY 7AM

Latest guidance suggests the boundary for showers and storms will push south toward the Ohio River Wednesday and Thursday… allowing for mostly dry conditions both day and highs near 80.

A renewed surge of scattered storms arrive during the Friday as the boundary buckles back northward into the state along with a upper disturbance.  There remains some uncertainty on whether or not this boundary will then again push southward or remain stalled in the state for the holiday weekend.

RPM WEDNESDAY 7PM RPM THURSDAY 7PM

Indianapolis added another .30″ to the rain gauge since midnight.  This pushes the monthly total up to 8.36″ which is good for the 7th wettest June on record… and wettest June in 5 years.  An additional half-inch to inch is possible in spots between this evening and Wednesday morning… with additional heavy amounts in play Friday.

MODEL RAINFALL 7DAY

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Jun
29

Soggy Weather Returns

Posted By · June 29, 2015 at 11:17 am

Scattered showers and storms remain in the forecast this afternoon after a Monday morning with more record setting rain for the month of June.

Here’s a look at the rain totals through mid morning.

monday rain totals

That puts us at the 7th wettest June on record for Indianapolis.

monday june rain

We could add to that total as we go into the afternoon.  Highs will reach the mid 70s, below our normal high of 85.

monday planner

More rain and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop.

monday 3pmmonday 630

Tonight we have to keep rain chances in the forecast for the Indians game as temps remain cool.

monday indians

The rain is expected to end by midnight, however, we’ll see the chance of a shower or storm at any time on Tuesday.

monday tuesday

In the 7 day forecast, this wet pattern continues.  As of now for Friday and Saturday holiday plans, I’d plan on isolated showers and thunderstorms.  We will be fine tuning the forecast hour by hour as we get closer to the weekend.

monday 7 day

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