Archive for SkyTrak Weather Blog
Temps will be falling across Central Indiana today with rain developing. Tonight that rain will turn to sleet/ice and snow.
Here are the current advisories and warnings in effect for Central Indiana. They take effect tonight at expire late Friday night (12am Saturday).
Today temps are starting in the 40s, but we’ll end up in the 30s by the evening.
Late this afternoon rain will develop across Central Indiana. Tonight that rain will change to sleet, possibly freezing rain, and snow.
Here’s what to expect by 7am Friday morning. The morning commute will be slick.
Remember Sunrise starts at 4am Friday, so we’ll be here extra early to help you start your day.
During the day Friday more sleet and snow is expected. We are expecting more snow accumulation Friday. This is a look at the total snow accumulation Thursday night through Friday night. Areas south of I-70 may see heavy pockets of snow, notice the area of 4″+.
Bottom line… roads will be slick and hazardous.
In the 7 day forecast… bitterly cold air moves in especially next week, but before that, another chance of accumulating snow Sunday.
The southern half of Indiana is now under a Winter Storm Watch that begins Thursday at 7pm and goes until Friday 7pm. As previously advertised, the brunt of this storm will likely hit areas south of I-70.
No worries on the roads in the morning, with some showers possible and temperatures well above freezing. A burst of rain/sleet arrives around 4-5pm… but surface temperatures again should be above freezing and keep roads mostly wet.
By 11pm temperatures are likely below freezing and roads will begin to get slick to icy… especially elevated surfaces and overpasses.
We’re still targeting Friday as very messy to dangerous day to be out driving. Sub-freezing and areas of moderate to heavy sleet/snow are likely.
We haven’t deviated much from our initial snowfall forecast, only bumping the southern viewing area up a category into a 4″-7″+ range. For now our forecast for the majority of the Indianapolis metro area holds at 2″ to 5″.
Remember this forecast is highly changeable and the snow zones are not in concrete. Please allow some wiggle room and don’t be surprised to see changes the next 24 hours.
Sleet is the forecast wildcard, and I think there might be plenty. Exactly how much and where dictates whether you’re on the low/high side of forecast. Any heavy banded precipitation (which is also likely) could balloon snow totals in “some” places.
We’re heading into a deep freeze and expect another system to arrive Sunday. It’s too early for specifics, but with snow on the ground I’m concerned for icy roads with a messy wintry mix. Yes… those are “highs” in the teens next Tuesday and Wednesday. That may actually be too warm! Welcome to winter – Sean Ash
Mild weather will be with us today as highs top out around 60 degrees. The forecast flips to winter by Thursday night as we start tracking rain/sleet/ice and snow.
First… today. Enjoy the mild temps! We will see patchy fog and spotty showers, but overall today shouldn’t be too bad.
Tonight scattered showers are possible and temps will drop to the upper 40s by early Thursday morning.
Thursday is a day where we start warm, and our temp falls during the day. We’ll eventually end in the 30s with a wintry mix developing late Thursday evening.
We are watching the Thursday night-Friday timeframe closely. Keep in mind the forecast numbers are subject to change… here is my thinking this morning.
Thursday night rain turns to a wintry mix and eventually snow by Friday morning. Friday morning’s commute looks slick with at least an inch of snow on the ground. The forecast remains tricky because we could see some freezing rain/sleet mix in which would bring down snow totals. We are watching this closely, and will continue to update you as we get closer to this winter system moving our way.
Expect a wintry mix Thursday night into Friday, and also during the day Friday exiting Friday night. These numbers could still change, so stay posted.
In the 7 day forecast temps get cold for Saturday, by Sunday we could be tracking more accumulating snow, and by next Tuesday overnight lows could drop to the single digits.
Low clouds, fog and drizzle will continue overnight, with nearly steady temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Scattered showers are in the Wednesday forecast, but it will be warm with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
The SkyTrak 13 Weather Team is tracking a developing storm system scheduled to arrive Thursday night and last through Friday night. This is a complex storm system, because we are expecting rain, sleet and snow. This makes it difficult to forecast exact amounts of ice and snow this far out. Our early estimations are 1-2 inches of snow north of Indianapolis and 2-5 inches of sleet and snow from Indianapolis south. Remember this is still developing and we will continue to make adjustments to the timing, the type of precipitation and the amounts. What you do need to know is travel will be fine on Thursday, but it will be tricky on Friday. We are expecting rain Thursday evening to mix with sleet and freezing rain Thursday night and early Friday morning. This will change to all snow on Friday. Stay tuned for updates.
There will be another round of snow possible on Sunday and another on Monday. It is an active 7 day forecast and cold. By the weekend, lows will be near 10 degrees and highs only in the 20s. This arctic air is forecast to linger through early next week.
The fog is lifting a bit, but more fog, low clouds and drizzle are in the forecast for tonight. Temperatures are in the range of 45-50 degrees right now and temperatures will be nearly steady overnight. The steadiest rain and snow on Doppler 13 Radar right now is across the northern Great Lakes. The precipitation will be in the form of drizzle locally overnight, with a better chance for scattered showers on Wednesday. Wednesday will be warm too, with highs near 60 degrees.
The SkyTrak13 Weather Team is analzying a difficult storm system for the end of the week. Right now we are forecasting the biggest impact from this system late Thursday night through Friday evening. After some rain on Wednesday, Thursday will start dry. Thursday will end with rain developing. As colder air begins to interact with this system, the rain will change to sleet and freezing rain from Indianapolis south. This will be enough for some ice accumulations. Even colder air will change the icy mess to all snow on Friday. Where it stays all snow, a couple of inches (at least) are possible. We will know more, as this system gets closer to us, so stay tuned for updates. Be prepared for tricky travel Friday morning and Friday night.
Central Indiana is off to a foggy start, with mild temps in the forecast (for now).
Visibility readings will likely remain below 4 miles for your morning commute. These are the 4am readings.
Temps are starting off in the 30s, we’ll warm to the mid to upper 50s today with a mix of sun and clouds and a chance for sprinkles. Winds will gust out of the south up to 20 mph.
Tonight temps remain mild with overnight lows in the upper 40s. Rain will develop late and stick around Wednesday. Scattered showers and even some rumbles of thunder are possible Wednesday.
Thursday is the day we’re watching closely, rain turns to sleet and snow as temps fall throughout the day. Friday snow showers are possible with light accumulations. Right now we’re looking at 1-2″ of snow… but stay posted that could change as the system continues to develop.
Much colder air moves in for the weekend, with another chance of accumulating snow Sunday.
Light rain continues to fall across central Indiana. Live Doppler 13 Radar at 7:30pm shows the steadiest across the northern half of the state. The rain will end overnight and Tuesday will be cloudy, with a few sprinkles possible.
Tuesday will start in the 40s, but forecast highs are in the 50s. Wednesday will be even warmer and near 60 degrees. Scattered showers and a few thundershowers are possible on Wednesday. As colder air wraps into a developing storm system, rain will mix with snow and change to all snow Thursday night and Friday. This system is still developing and we will track it closely. It is too early to give an accurate snowfall prediction, but know accumulating snow is possible later this week and again on Sunday. We will continue to give you updates on timing, type of precipitation and how much over the next several days.
Buckle up Central Indiana for what promises to be an active stretch the next few weeks, that likely delivers multiple precipitation events to the region. The image below shows the average configuration of the upper level flow across the northern hemisphere the next 8-10 days.
Please note much will change between now and the end of the week, and there is plenty of time to iron-out specifics. This post is not to “hype” or “scare”, but merely shed some light into what we’re seeing behind the scenes… and the various outcomes with this set up.
Both the GFS and European models shows a persistent southwest to northeast flow during this time. This will be an ample moisture supply that will travel over Arctic air at the surface… resulting in increased chances of snow/winter precip in the very near future.
***click images to enlarge***
Preceding the temperature tumble later this week will be a surge to near 60+ on Wednesday. The warmth and a front will trigger scattered showers and possible some gusty storms.
Notice the downward spiral in the temperature meteogram above for Indianapolis. The peak on Wednesday is evident, as is the Arctic chill for the weekend. The meteogram below is snowfall potential.
Being 72+ hours away from a “potential” winter precip event is still too far out from trying to pinpoint amounts and location of heaviest snow/precip. With much uncertainty regarding actual moisture, temperature profiles, and the likelihood of sleet and freezing rain complicating matters. Both the Euro & GFS models show snow accumulation across Central/Southern Indiana by 7pm Friday.
You’ll also notice the NAM and GFs showing sleet accumulation. It’s too be determined how quickly the Arctic air will fill the column overhead and switch all precip to snow.
For now, sleet and freezing rain are very much in play from Indy-southward. We can also look at the past to help predict future events. The image below shows the historical best match (analog) for the “modeled” conditions later this week… and it is an event from December 13-14, 1985. No two events are the same, but this gives confidence Central Indiana will see some snow. We won’t have a good handle on amounts until Wednesday.