Archive for SkyTrak Weather Blog
The snow and slick conditions are causing some problems in southern Indiana today, but overall, the Indy Metro area totally missed the snow storm that has caused real problems in Kentucky. Look for partly sunny skies this morning but still a very cold day.
We are forecasting near record cold on Friday morning, with lows near 0. The record is -1 in 1978. There will be lots of sun on Friday, with highs around 28 degrees. The outlook, beginning this weekend, will be warmer and our highs will be near 40 degrees this weekend, with a mix of clouds and sun on Saturday and Sunday. Remember daylight saving time begins on Sunday, as we turn our clocks ahead one hour.
Milder is on the way for next week. It will feel like Spring, with highs in the 50s on Tuesday and Wednesday. In fact, we are calling for a high of 58 by the middle of the week.
The latest weather system brought several inches of new snow to the southern third of Indiana late Wednesday. Snow will end overnight, but watch for slick and snow covered roads especially south of Indianapolis through Thursday morning. There might even be a few slick roads across the rest of the area due to refreezing.
It will be colder overnight, with lows near 10. Temperatures won’t move much on Thursday, with morning clouds and some afternoon sun. Forecast highs are in the upper teens and lower 20s.
Near record cold is forecast for Friday morning, with lows near 0. The record is -1 in 1978. Highs on Friday will be near 30 degrees, with mostly sunny skies.
The weather pattern will be dry for the end of the week and the weekend. Forecast highs are near 40 degrees on Saturday and Sunday. Remember Daylight Saving Time begins on Sunday. This means your turn your clocks forward 1 hour when you go to bed Saturday night. It is also a great idea to change the batteries in smoke and carbon monoxide detectors.
A big warm-up is in the forecast for early next week. We have 40s for Monday, lower 50s on Tuesday and upper 50s on Wednesday. Finally there is a taste of Spring in the forecast.
We still don’t anticipate much snow for the Indianapolis metro area, but light snow and temperatures in the lower 20s may make the roads slick this evening. Snowfall will increase traveling south of I-70… but there’s definitely been a noticeable shift of the highest amounts to south of the Ohio River.
Our updated snowfall potential map has lower amounts but still a problematic snow. 1″-3″ is expected now for Bloomington-Columbus-Greensburg with 3″+ potential for Seymour and Bedford. Along and south of the Ohio River takes the brunt of this storm with amounts in the Bluegrass State likely nearing double digits for the second time in less than a month.
Snow will be steadiest in Central and Southern Indiana this evening to midnight. From northwest to southeast it will taper to flurries after midnight with the bulk of snow along the Ohio River by 4am. Bitterly cold air arrives in the wake of the storm system and record cold “highs” will be rivaled tomorrow. Highs range from 15 to 20 degrees Thursday which is a good 30 degrees below normal for early March. Wind chills tomorrow also won’t be pleasant either… with a range of near zero to ten below zero.
The coldest temperatures of this latest bout of Arctic air appear Thursday night into Friday morning. Many locations will be at or below zero Friday morning and near record lows for that date. This all precedes a warm up this weekend that will see highs near 40 degrees. It appears we’ll only be scratching the surface of a modeled pattern change.
Long range indicators suggest a more “zonal” flow to the jet stream which promotes milder, Pacific air to spread eastward. Some indications are a slight “ridge” may develop in the eastern U.S. to allow for above normal warmth for a change. “If” this latter scenario verifies, highs next Wednesday may near 60 degrees! Stay tuned – Sean Ash
Wednesday Midday Update: Arctic air teams up with a stalled front to deliver a messy evening commute for the southern half of Indiana… including the Indy metro area. Latest Ohio Valley Radar show a broad area moisture along the Ohio River Valley.
Local temperature analysis shows the intrusion of much colder air in western Indiana… where temperatures are in the lower 20s. This colder undercuts the moisture and snow eventually develops around or just after midday along the I-70 corridor as lift increases along the stalled front. In north central Indiana the air will likely be dry enough to limit snow potential, though flurries are certainly fair game.
While snow amounts will be light (up to 1″) in the metro area, the snow will be falling into temperatures in the lower 20s. This means roads get slick quick where snow occurs and the timing places it during the evening rush hour. This could make for a long drive home.
Snow amounts ramp up quickly traveling southward. We’re still calling for a 2-5″ accumulation in Bloomington-Nashville-Colu
Remember the gradient from northwest to southeast will be extreme… and amounts even within counties will range widely. Also any wiggle to the storm track could cause big fluctuations of amounts either north or south.
A snow bulls eye of 8″-10″+ looks to target the Ohio River from Louisville to Lexington. Travel down south overnight into Thursday morning will be rather difficult… if not impossible.
Rain has been falling this morning but as temperatures drop, we will see rain changing to snow especially south of Indy. Look for heavy snow, more than 5 inches falling mainly this afternoon, from Columbus on south to Kentucky. Snow amounts would be an inch or two in the Metro area of Indy, if even that, but the farther south you live. the more snow you will receive. Travel will become dangerous, if not impossible, along the Ohio River tonight into Thursday.
Watch for icy spots around the area as temperatures drop all day. We anticipate another slow commute Thursday morning with lows nearing the single digits.
Welcome to Central Indiana’s warmest day since February 8th when highs neared 60 degrees. It’s not that warm locally, but 60s are showing up south of the Ohio River. Unbelievably that area is in the cross-hairs of another heavy snow dump the next 36 hours… and the winter storm will have a local impact on the WTHR viewing area. Expect temperatures to tumble some 20 degrees over the next 24 hours.
Melting snow, and the relatively warmer air gliding over it, is keeping visibility low this evening with areas of dense fog. Street flooding and ponding of water in low lying areas continues as well from run-off and areas of showers.
Colder air teams up with lingering moisture overnight to squeeze-out a period of wintry mix… perhaps heavy enough to accumulate in some areas. Regardless… moisture on roads likely refreezes as temperatures fall well into the 20s by sunrise Wednesday. Expect another slick commute area wide. Better chances for accumulating snow arrive during Wednesday afternoon and evening for the southern half of Indiana.
The heaviest snow looks to target areas south of I-70… with a potential 10″+ snow “bulls eye” along the Ohio River. We’re not advising travel in southern Indiana/Kentucky Wednesday evening into Thursday as it will be dangerous to maybe impossible.
We’re keeping the Indy metro area in a 1-2″ snow potential zone, Bloomington/Columbus/Greensburg/Bloomfield in 2-5″ and Bedford/Mitchell/Seymour/North Vernon at 5-8″. The latter is currently in a Winter Storm Watch and will likely be upgraded to Warning status if model data continues to hold. Additional Winter Weather Advisories may be needed farther north too.
We have high confidence on the 5-8″ zone verifying, medium confidence on the 2-5″, and lower confidence in the 1-2″ zone. Please note that there will be rather sharp snowfall gradients from northwest to southeast within snow zones. Also there remains potential for significant changes to amounts and placement the next 24 hours… so please check back for updates.
Another shot near record low temperatures arrives on the heels of this storm, and temperatures Thursday morning into Friday morning will be a good 20 to 30 degrees below normal. Long range guidance offers hope for above normal temperatures arriving the middle of next week. “If” this verifies we could see highs in the upper 50s to near 60 by mid-month. Keep hope alive! Stay safe and check for updates please – Sean Ash
The good news is that most locations in Central Indiana are now well above freezing. But this “warming” increases the risk for areas of dense fog and street flooding.
Aiding in the flood threat are areas of downpours moving through the state… especially in southern Indiana. Temperatures max-out in the upper 30s to mid 40s this evening and hang steady until the latest Arctic front passes after midnight.
Colder air returning overnight changes rain into a period of wintry mix before ending prior to sunrise. Areas of freezing drizzle remain possible into the Wednesday morning, and lows in the mid-20s suggests another slick commute area wide.
Another surge of moisture rides along the Arctic boundary tomorrow and ups the ante for accumulating snow… especially areas south of I-70. Our latest snowfall potential map remains highly subject to change, but we have high confidence on areas south of Bloomington-Columbus-Greensburg verifying in the 5″+ range. Travel will become dangerous, if not impossible, along the Ohio River Wednesday evening into Thursday.
Farther north it’s more complicated due to an expected sharp snowfall gradient that will be very close to the I-70 corridor. At this point we don’t feel comfortable dropping the Indy metro area from some accumulation… but take note that we have low confidence on the current 1-2″ potential actually verifying.
We’re roughly 24 hours away so significant track changes can occur that could drastically change snow amounts in any given area. In a nutshell stay tuned to the forecast between now and then. We’ll update as new information becomes available.
With or without shovelable snow, roads will likely be slick as standing water freezes in steady to falling temperatures in the mid to lower 20s tomorrow. We anticipate another slow commute Thursday morning with lows nearing the single digits.
Record cold temperatures are possible Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. This precedes a weekend warm up that sends highs to near 40 degrees. Long range guidance advertises a pattern conducive of normal to above normal temperatures arriving during the middle of next week. If you’re sick of cold hope it verifies – Sean Ash