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Nov
23

More Rain Today, Heavy Rain Possible

Posted By · November 23, 2014 at 7:22 am

Another mild day is in place but changes will arrive later today as a strong area of low pressure moves arrives. Central Indiana will be in the warm sector of the storm, so temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 50s this afternoon.

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There is a chance of a few more scattered showers this morning into the early afternoon. Widespread rain will arrive by mid afternoon. Pockets of heavy rain will be likely with breezy winds.

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Temperatures may actually climb a few degrees this evening but then will begin to tumble after midnight. The heavier rain will taper off early Monday but the winds will ramp up.

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Winds will be sustained from 20 to 25 mph with gusts around 30 to 50 mph possible through Monday evening. Temperatures will fall into the mid 40s Monday morning and will be down into the low 30s by late afternoon.

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A few light snow showers will be possible Monday afternoon although no accumulation is expected.

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Temperatures will fall into the low 20s early Tuesday morning and the wind will begin to relax.

Tuesday will be a cold winter-like day with temperatures only climbing into the low to mid 30s.

There is a small chance of some light snow on Thanksgiving Day morning although moisture appears to be lacking. This will be something the SkyTrak13 team will continue to monitor. The record snowfall on Thanksgiving Day is 2.4” set in 1902.

Thanksgiving day stats

The cold winter-like temperatures look to stick around through next weekend.

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Nov
22

Wet & Windy Sunday

Posted By · November 22, 2014 at 5:59 pm

Due to southerly breezes gusting 20 to 30 mph this afternoon, temperatures soared into the mid 50s. A few more light showers will be possible this evening through Sunday morning. It will be a mild evening with temperatures only falling into the low 40s. The normal low for this time of year is 33 degrees.

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Showers will be possible early afternoon and then it will be likely by late afternoon. A week ago, we were tracking snow. This Sunday, we are tracking heavy rain and windy conditions.

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Central Indiana will be in the warm sector of a strong area of low pressure. Temperatures will climb into the mid 50s with breezy winds out of the south.

sunday planner

Here’s the forecast if you are heading to the Colts game.

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By Sunday night, rain will become heavy with even a few rumbles of thunder.

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Some areas could receive one to one and a half inches of rain by Monday morning.

monday rain accum

As a warm front lifts through Sunday night, temperatures may climb into the upper 50s Sunday evening and then fall throughout the day on Monday. By Monday morning, temperatures will be in the low 40s.

Rain will come to an end Monday morning with a few snow showers possible as much colder air arrives. No accumulation is expected but it will be a blustery day with temperatures falling into the low 30s by late afternoon. Winds will be sustained from 20 to 30 mph at times on Monday with gusts around 50 mph possible.

monday windy

A few flurries will be possible on Tuesday.

A few snow showers look possible on Thanksgiving day.

7day

 

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Nov
22

Wet & Warmer Weekend

Posted By · November 22, 2014 at 7:17 am

A few slick areas are possible this morning, due to some isolated areas of freezing rain. Temperatures are gradually warming above the freezing mark across central Indiana. Scattered showers will be possible on and off today although a good chunk of the day will dry.

FT SAT 2PM FT SATURDAY 6PM

It will be breezy with winds out of the south, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 40s. The rain and warmer air will allow patchy fog to develop today.

today planner

Scattered showers will be possible through the evening with temperatures only falling into the low 40s.

More rain will develop on Sunday as a strong area of low pressure arrives. It will be a windy day with gusts around 40 to 50 mph possible. Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 50s.

sunday planner

Heavy rain will be possible Sunday evening into Monday morning. Some areas could receive one to one and a half inches of rain by Monday morning.

ft sunday 7pm  rain accum
Temperatures will fall all day Monday. The air temperature will be in the low 30s by late afternoon. Rain will taper off and change over to a few light snow showers by late morning.

More flurries are possible on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 30s.

Another system could bring some snow late Wednesday night into Thanksgiving day.

7day

 

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Nov
21

Freezing Rain and Heavy Rain in the Weekend Forecast

Posted By · November 21, 2014 at 4:27 pm
The SkyTrak13 Weather Team is tracking a developing storm system that will impact your weekend.  The first change you will see is increasing clouds this evening.  Temperatures overnight and early Saturday are key to the forecast.  Temperatures will fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s overnight.  This will be cold enough to support some freezing rain, as the weather system arrives.  We are timing this from about 1am to 8am on Saturday.  Temperatures will go above freezing, after sunrise Saturday.  Here is FutureTrak13 analyzing the freezing rain potential, with temperatures below freezing until about 7am.  Some slick roads are possible after midnight.
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There are several freezing rain advisories in effect from NW Indiana across Illinois and into Iowa.  The advisory for NW Indiana is in effect from 11pm Friday through 7am Saturday and right now does not include central Indiana.

WATCH'

The rest of Saturday will be mostly cloudy, with scattered showers.  This will be a chilly rain, with temperatures in the 40s.

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We are forecasting a break from the steady rain later Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

The threats for heavy rain and gusty winds arrive on Sunday, with temperatures in the 50s.  The timing for the heaviest rain is Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night.  An inch of rain and wind gusts near 50mph are possible on Sunday.

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The weather pattern stays damp and breezy through Monday.  Colder air returns for the rest of next week.  There is still a chance for a Thanksgiving Day snow, so stay tuned for updates.

7DAY

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Nov
20

Cold Friday and a Wet Weekend

Posted By · November 20, 2014 at 10:21 pm

It will be clear and cold again overnight, with lows in the teens.

LOWS TONIGHT planner

Friday will be dry, with some sunshine and highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s.  A developing storm system arrives late Friday night and early Saturday morning.  As the moisture runs into the cold air, there will be a few hours of freezing rain possible very early Saturday morning.  As the air mass warms over central Indiana, the wintry mix will change to all rain for the rest of the weekend.  Here is the timing with FutureTrak13 from Friday night through Sunday night.  We will keep you updated on changes to the timing of the freezing rain and heavy rain this weekend.
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The heaviest rain will fall on Sunday.  Strong winds will also be a concern, with winds gusting to near 50mph.  It will stay mild and damp through early Monday, before another round of colder air arrives later Monday into Tuesday.  The rain chances will change back to light snow chances.
Another storm system is due to arrive around Thanksgiving.  We will keep you updated on snowfall potential for the holiday.
7DAY
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Nov
20

Windy, Wet Weekend Begins With Some Freezing Rain

Posted By · November 20, 2014 at 3:34 pm

Nice to see some sunshine today in Central Indiana.  But it only minimally offsets the cold, blustery conditions outside.  While some areas are bright this afternoon others are seeing flurries and light snow showers.  Most of the wintry precipitation this hour is north of Indianapolis and likely diminishes after sunset when the atmosphere stabilizes.

TEMPS

Everyone is dealing with wind chills in the teens to near 20 degrees and expect these numbers to drop a bit toward sunset.

WIND CHILL PLANNER EVENING LOWS TONIGHT

Not as windy tonight, but that allows our minimal heating to radiate away from the ground leading to colder lows in the lower teens and single digits Friday morning.  We expect a rather bright day tomorrow and not nearly as breezy as the past two days.  Despite highs only near freezing, Friday relatively will be a much more pleasant day.

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We’re not deviating from our thoughts that Friday night into Saturday morning will deliver sleet and freezing rain to Central Indiana.  Though light… there may be enough to cause slick spots on untreated roadways before sunrise Saturday.  Check back for updates as we’ll likely be temperature watching early in the day.  Temperatures eventually warm into the mid-40s Saturday afternoon with areas of rain, drizzle and locally dense fog.

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A bigger storm is set to embark on the Ohio Valley delivering periods of heavy rain, possibly thunder and likely high wind.  Rain amounts by Monday morning will near an inch and make for sloppy conditions all across the region.  Wind gusts by Sunday evening may near or eclipse 50mph… even without thunderstorms, due to the tightening pressure gradient around the center of the storm in Central Illinois.

RPM 9 EURO TEMPS

We’ll be on the warm side (east) of this storm Sunday and within an airmass that produces highs in the mid to upper 50s.  We don’t anticipate severe weather.  However, if we were to get into some sunshine and highs climb into the 60s that might be a game-changer.  Current thinking is a solid cloud deck, rain and relatively cool ground prevents this from happening.    A colder wind returns Monday afternoon and delivers our latest surge of unseasonably cold conditions Monday night into Thanksgiving weekend.

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Speaking of Thanksgiving… there are major model differences in the pattern 7 days out.  The typically reliable European model has been bullish the past several runs of producing a snow system (with varying degrees of intensity) late next week.  Its American counterpart (GFS) shows more troughiness in the upper levels.  That would be a cold pattern, with some snow, but nothing major for the Ohio Valley but would be a concern for east coast travel.

EURO NEXT WEEK EURO NEXT WEEK 2 GFS

Either way it appears something’s brewing next week.  It’s a matter of when, where and how strong.  It’s much too early for any more specifics than that.  Stay tuned and have a great evening – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Nov
19

Temperature Swings and Wintry Mix to Weekend Rain

Posted By · November 19, 2014 at 4:25 pm
It has been a windy day, with winds gusting near 40 mph.  There are few snow showers moving through the region too.  It will stay windy this evening, with a few flurries or snow showers.  No accumulation is expected.  It will be cold again overnight, with lows in the teens.
After that cold start, there will be a mix of sun and clouds on Thursday afternoon, with highs only in the range of 25-30 degrees.  Thursday and most of Friday will be dry.
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A developing weather system will bring a wintry mix to central Indiana later Friday night.  This will change to all rain for the weekend.  Here is the timing with FutureTrak13, as the weather system arrives Friday night and early Saturday.
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There is the threat for heavy rain on Sunday.  Highs this weekend will be in the 40s on Saturday and the 50s on Sunday.  Strong winds will be an issue too on Sunday and Monday.  Another round of colder air arrives on Tuesday.
7DAY
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Nov
19

Changes Coming

Posted By · November 19, 2014 at 3:09 am

Here we go again, another really brisk morning in Indiana, but not as cold as yesterday. A re-freezing took place over night on some area roads so watch for slick spots on your drive to work or school today.

More light snow is possible today as a quick-moving upper disturbance swings across the Great Lakes. It is windy and will remain windy during the day today. Look for gusts to get near 30 mph later today.

Colder than normal conditions continue into Friday night. We’re still expecting a warm up this weekend, but it will require going through some snow and a wintry mix Friday night into early Saturday. Eventually this transitions into a cold rain Saturday. As the warmer air glides over and melts the snow pack, fog will develop and possibly become dense this weekend.

Sunday temperatures shoot into the 50s but it’s not the kind of 50s that will have us dancing in the sun. We will probably see rain during the day Sunday. Cooling back down again Tuesday.

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