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Storm Chance Late Tonight And Wednesday

Posted By · July 22, 2014 at 4:37 pm

We’re sweating through an oppressive Muggy Meter today in central Indiana with hot, hazy conditions.  Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s with heat indices firmly in the 90s.


Patience is required if you’re not a fan of the sticky air, but will be rewarded Wednesday afternoon and evening.


There is a chance of some storms late tonight (after midnight) and toward sunrise Wednesday and northwestern Indiana is under a Slight Risk for severe weather.  But I have serious doubts there will be much storm coverage due to a warm air “lid” over central Indiana.

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Expect very humid conditions to start tomorrow, but drier air arrives in the afternoon after the passage of a cold front around midday.  The transition keeps storm chances in play for areas along, and especially south of I-70.

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You should notice a refreshing breeze kicking in later in the day that drag in pleasant air for late week.

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Thursday looks like a fine day with sunshine and highs in the mid-70s, which is perfect timing for the beginning Brickyard 400 festivities at IMS.  Expect plenty of sun and comfortable conditions.

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Our coolest temperatures happen Thursday night into Friday morning when many drop into the 50s.  Friday will be warmer as highs near 80.



Latest model trends point toward a potentially active set up this weekend in central Indiana… with multiple storm complexes possible on the edge of the hot dome centered to our west.  There is much uncertainty on timing and coverage at this point, but know that the first complex may arrive Friday night into Saturday morning.  This set up could have big implications on weekend plans and Brickyard 400 festivities.  Check back for updates.


As this blog has addressed for several days now, all signs lead to another impressive bout of unseasonably cool air next week… beginning Monday and lasting into the first week of August.


There is general consensus in modeling of a high amplitude trough over the eastern US that would deliver an air mass capable of 10 to 20 degree temperature anomalies.  So we’ll go from near 90 degrees today to highs in the lower to mid 70s this time next week.


Notice in the image above (GFS ensemble data provided be weatherbell.com) the stretch of lows in the 50s beginning Tuesday and lasting for several days.  This will allow for a nice stretch of A/C free conditions.  However we do need some rain and hopefully your backyard gets some Wednesday or this weekend.

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Thanks for visiting the blog and have a great evening – Sean Ash

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For a change it feels like summer in central Indiana.  This includes hazy sunshine, humid heat in the 80s and a light southwest wind.  In what’s been the coldest July on record for the first 20 days of the month, this is welcomed news by Hoosiers longing for good “pool” weather.


The Muggy Meter continues to creep into the humid to uncomfortable range with dew points in the 60s.  If you’re heading to Victory Field this evening for the Indianapolis Indians it’s a good idea to dress in comfortable clothes.  But it will be a great evening for baseball and anything else outdoors.

Dewpoints INDIANS

Much like the past couple of mornings, areas of locally dense fog will accompany the Tuesday morning commute.  Though it’s difficult to pinpoint exact locations… low-lying areas, riverbeds and valleys are usual suspects for low visibility.

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Any fog will quickly dissipate to allow for a hazy sky.  Temperatures will quickly warm into the lower 80s by 11am and upper 80s between 2-4pm.  For the first time this year Indianapolis may officially hit 90 degrees… snapping the 314 day sub-90 degree day streak.  This is the 8th longest streak in the past 30 years for the city and we’re now a month past the climatological norm for the first 90 degree temperature.

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Regardless of the city technically hits 90 degrees it will certainly feel like with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.  Storms will continue to bypass the central Indiana to the north-northwest tomorrow.  But we’ll monitor a storm initiation along  a cold front late tomorrow evening in the Michiana area for local impact.

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Our next best chance of rain and storms will be Wednesday.  Though it’s not an ideal set up for severe weather, locally strong storms are possible and heavy rain is likely in any storms that develop.

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By Wednesday evening much of the are will be north side of a cold front and feeling the impacts to the return of northwesterly wind.  This will bring the first of two much cooler than normal spells to the region… but will be tame compared to what’s brewing for the July 28-30 time frame.

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As noted in the blog yesterday, another sharp atmospheric trough will establish itself over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early next week.  The end result will below normal temperatures and daily chances of showers and storms underneath an upper low.


Analog data (above) give this forecaster higher than normal confidence on this pattern delivering fall-ish conditions for days 7-10 in the forecast period… with 95% of 105 analogs (similar historical atmospheric conditions) delivering below normal air.  (Map provided by http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/extended.php)


Both the European (above) and GFS (below) models show another air mass capable of producing temperature anomalies of 10-20 degrees below normal.  This would result in near record low maximums next Tuesday and Wednesday.  Stay tuned as we update this trend.


Tomorrow is hands down our hottest day of the next couple of weeks.  The graph above is highs/lows from the GFS Ensemble output displays how we’ll most likely be on the cooler side of normal after Tuesday.  (Three images above are courtesy of weatherbell.com)

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The transition to the cool pattern next week may deliver scattered showers and storms this weekend.  Confidence is low at the moment on coverage and timing… but there is potential impact to Brickyard 400 festivities this weekend.  Check back for updates and have a great evening – Sean Ash

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Hottest Air Of The Year Possible Tuesday

Posted By · July 20, 2014 at 5:38 pm

Overall this shaped up to be a decent Sunday in central Indiana with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.  You probably noticed a increase in haze and humidity, and that trend continues the next couple of days.


Areas of locally dense fog develop overnight and will impact the Monday morning commute for some.  Low temperatures range from 60 to 65.  Any fog should quickly depart by late morning, and hazy sun will be the rule of thumb tomorrow.


With highs in the mid to upper 80s and heat indices in the 90s, Monday will be a good pool day… something we haven’t had much of lately.


Indianapolis’ streak of sub-90 degree days is up to 313.  There is a chance of snapping the streak Tuesday when temperatures make a run at that elusive number.  Even if we don’t hit 90 it will certainly feel like with heat indices well into the 90s.


Our next best chance of rain and storms is late Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon along an approaching cold front.  Some of these storms will produce heavy rain and gusty wind.


If we miss 90 degrees Tuesday the streak may continue well past this weekend.  Long range guidance suggesting another unseasonably cool air mass arriving July 28-30… possibly producing temperature anomalies of 10-20 degrees below normal.


Above is the upper air pattern projected by the European model for next Tuesday.  This shows another pronounced trough/upper low sitting across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley… similar to the set up that produced the chill last week.


The latest GFS ensemble 850mb (roughly 5,000ft) temperature anomaly map for the same time shows fall-ish conditions returning as well.  It’s far out, but this long range signals agreeing suggest a higher than normal confidence in the day 8-10 outlook.  Below is surface temperatures from the same model Indianapolis.  Notice that 13 of the next 15 days produce below normal highs, and mid-70s may be too “warm” next Tuesday.  It’s something we’ll monitor closely in the week ahead.  (Image above and below courtesy of weatherbell.com)


In the short term, after storms on Wednesday we’re in store for a pleasant Thursday and Friday.  Prior to the aforementioned cool spell next week with a period of storms that may impact the Brickyard 400 next Sunday.  We’ll be fine tuning that forecast in the days ahead.


  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

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More Sun Sunday

Posted By · July 19, 2014 at 5:35 pm

A few sprinkles fell in east central Indiana this morning.  Here are some of our WeatherBug stations:


After a mainly cloudy day, the skies will start to clear out as an area of high pressure builds in.  Patchy dense fog is possible Sunday morning with lows near 60 degrees.

A weak system will continue to push off to the east on Sunday.  This system will keep  just a small chance of a few more sprinkles in our east central viewing area during the afternoon.  Temperatures will climb into the low 80s.

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The skies will continue to clear out Sunday night with temperatures falling into the mid 60s, near normal for this time of year.

More heat and more humidity arrives on Monday.  Temperatures will soar into the upper 80s Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

A cold front will arrive on Wednesday, bringing some scattered showers and thunderstorms.  A few lingering showers will be possible on Thursday.

Temperatures will fall back below July averages Thursday on into the weekend.


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Warming Trend Continues

Posted By · July 19, 2014 at 7:26 am

While it has been unseasonably cool this week, a gradual warming trend continues into the middle of next week.  The first 17 days of July have marked the coolest July since 1960.  Temperatures were running from 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

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There is an upper level system that could bring a few sprinkles in our east central viewing area today, otherwise, it will be partly sunny with a high near 80.

It will be partly cloudy and cool tonight with temperatures falling to near 60 degrees – another great night to open the windows.  It will be a great night for the Indy Eleven game this evening.

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It will be mostly sunny Sunday with temperatures climbing into the low 80s. Winds will be light out of the northeast with another small chance of light rain in our east central viewing area.

The heat and humidity crank up by Monday, with temperatures soaring into the upper 80s.

The hot conditions stick around through Wednesday. A cold front will arrive on Wednesday, bringing our next best chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The front will bring cooler conditions into the weekend.


2002: Greenfield had nearly 4.25” of rain, causing a roof to collapse.

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Weekend Forecast

Posted By · July 18, 2014 at 4:37 pm
The weekend is here and the weather pattern is warming up.  After several days in the 70s, 80 degree warmth is back for the weekend.

Skies will be partly cloudy Friday evening and overnight, with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

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Most of central Indiana will be dry this weekend, with highs in the lower and middle 80s.  I say most, because we are tracking a weather system that will sit just to our east.  It will be close enough for some clouds and the slight chance for a shower especially across southern and eastern Indiana.  The heaviest and steadiest rain will stay closer to the center of this weather system and across parts of Ohio.

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The warm-up will last through next week, with highs in the middle and upper 80s.  Our next best chance for rain is Wednesday.

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Cool Spell Eases For Weekend Warm Up

Posted By · July 17, 2014 at 3:43 pm

Are you fan of our latest stretch of unseasonably cool air in central Indiana?  If not your patience will be rewarded early next week when highs near 90 degrees.  Between now and then it will be a gradual transition from comfortable humidity to an oppressive Muggy Meter.


This Evening:  It’s nothing but nice this evening if you’re heading to the free Concert on the Canal in Indianapolis outside the Historical Society… or anything else you’re doing for that matter.  Highs today remained 5 to 10 degrees below normal in what’s been an impressively cool start to July.


The first 16 days of this month produced an average temperature of 70.9 degree… which would be good for 2nd coolest July on record if the month ended today.  There’s still plenty of month and potential heating left, but this will be a statistic we’ll follow closely the next couple of weeks.


This is now officially the 6th longest wait on record for the first 90-degree day of the year in Indianapolis… and longest stretch since 2004 when there were zero 90-degree days in the city.  The average first date for the first 90 degree temperature was nearly a month ago, and the city averages 18 days in the 90s in a year.


Tonight and Friday:  This will likely be the last night of windows open and A/Cs off.  So enjoy the low to mid 50s Friday morning and pleasant highs nearing 80 Friday afternoon.  Much like the past few days, expect a mostly cloud-free morning with fair weather cumulus clouds popping during the heating of the day.


Weekend Outlook:  For the past few days we’ve mentioned uncertainty regarding precipitation chances this weekend in relation to an approaching upper level system.  Latest analysis and model data suggests this feature should bypass our viewing area to the south and southeast… with perhaps some residual cloud cover.



You will notice an increase in humidity Saturday evening heading into Sunday, and this marks a transition to typical summer weather for the Ohio Valley.  Don’t forget the Indy Eleven are back on the pitch Saturday evening and it should be a nice night for soccer.


7 Day Forecast:  It appears our next best chance of rain and storms will  Wednesday with the approach of a cold front.  These storms will have heavy rain potential and we’ll need to monitor for severe weather as well.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash


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From Near Record Lows to a Gradual Warming Trend

Posted By · July 16, 2014 at 3:47 pm
Temperatures right now are in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  There will be clouds this evening, but then clearing skies are in the forecast.
It will be another cool night across central Indiana.  Forecast lows are in the upper 40s and lower 50s.  These numbers are near record levels.  The record is 51 in 1976.  Skies will be mostly clear overnight.

Sunshine is in the Thursday forecast, with highs in the middle 70s.  This will be the beginning of a gradual warming trend.  Highs on Friday will be in the upper 70s, with more sunshine.

The 80s are back for the weekend.  Right now we have most of the weekend dry.  Some of the latest analysis hints at a weather system to our south.  If it gets close enough, there will be the chance for rain.  We include that slight chance for Sunday, but most of the weekend will be dry and warmer.

It will be warm and more humid early next week, with highs in the middle and upper 80s.  There are better rain chances next week too.



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