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It’s not the brightest day ever but the cloud cover helped limit heating and instability this afternoon.  As a result rain chances remain minimal this evening, though isolated downpours are possible until after sunset.

TEMPS

Evening and Tonight: Visible satellite does show less cloud cover and warmer temperatures in southwestern Indiana, and this area has the best chance of seeing development in the next 1-2 hours.  Definitely don’t cancel any outdoor plans and remember the Indianapolis Indians and Indiana State Fair continue this evening.

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Wednesday: Latest guidance indicates central Indiana will reap the rewards of cloud cover again Wednesday.  This will keep highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s, with isolated chances of rain and thunder.  Areas of dense fog could impact the morning commute early tomorrow.  Remember the gloomy sky is our friend tomorrow for drier conditions.

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Late Week: We’re eyeing the potential for widespread heavy rain in the late Thursday-Friday time frame… with a disclaimer that there remains much uncertainty on exact amounts, track and timing.  Some models place central Indiana in the heavy rain bull’s-eye, while a few suppress the heavy track southward along the Ohio River.  We’ll monitor trends and update as needed heading into late week.

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For now the weekend looks mainly dry and warm with highs in the mid-80s.  Enjoy the evening and check back for the latest on the heavy rain potential – Sean Ash

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Aug
04

Daily Chance Of Showers And Storms Into Wednesday Afternoon

Posted By · August 4, 2014 at 4:54 pm

Hope you’re enjoying this hazy, warm Monday in central Indiana.  As expected isolated downpours have developed in the heating of the day.  While most backyards don’t see a drop of rain, these slow-moving cells can produce downpours in a short time.  Below is a great example of the isolated nature of the rain today.  This is a downpour on the east side of Indianapolis that we captured on our Towercam and Live Doppler 13 Radar.

NOW

At the time of this posting there were several downpours around Marion County and a few other beginning to fire up outside of the immediate Indianapolis metro area.

EVENING

We’re definitely not advertising to cancel plans, but you’ll want to watch the radar closely if you’re outside this evening.

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The highest chance is confined to far northern Indiana along a weak frontal boundary.

This front, and its location, will be a forecast focus the next several days.  It does creep southward the next 24 hours, and along with daytime heating puts widely scattered showers and storms in play for the entire viewing area Tuesday.  Decaying storms are possible as early as sunrise north-northwest of Indianapolis.  But the highest rain chances will be after 12pm and before midnight.

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There is much uncertainty on the Wednesday/Thursday forecast due to model disagreement on location of the front.  If it’s south of the region, as a few models project, we’ll be mostly dry.  But there’s a possibility the front stalls along central Indiana and ups the ante for storm chance Wednesday and Thursday.  For now it’s a “chance” for those days but highly subject to change.

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The cool summer and July has been well documented by this blog over the past two months.  We also remain on 90 degree watch.  It’s been 328 days since our last 90 degree temperature, which is the 10th longest streak on record for Indianapolis.  This is also the 5th longest wait for a 90 degree temperature, and we believe we’ll climb into third place by early next week.  Remember that in 2004 there were no 90 degree days.

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Enjoy the evening – Sean Ash

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Aug
01

Isolated Strong Evening Storms

Posted By · August 1, 2014 at 4:50 pm

As expected spotty downpours and thunder developed over central Indiana today.  There remains a chance of storms into this evening.  The best chance is in west central parts of the state that are closer to the upper low causing the storms.  This is also where a strong storm has delivered significant street flooding and piles of penny to marble sized hail in Tippecanoe County… including the Purdue Campus.  A Flood Advisory is in place there until 7pm there.

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Any storms this evening will be slow movers, and that increases the risk of street flooding if you’re under one of these storms.

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We’re not advertising to cancel outdoor plans this evening, but realize if you’re under one of these cells torrential downpours and lightning are likely.  After sunset the atmosphere settles down again.  However the upper low moving over top central Indiana may provide just enough lift for isolated showers into Saturday morning.  It’s a small chance, but a chance nonetheless.

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The Indiana State Fair begins mostly dry in the morning, but daytime heating and the upper system trigger more scattered heavy storms in the afternoon.  Not every backyard gets wet, but some locations may pick up a half inch to an inch of rain quickly.

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This disturbance departs to allow for a dry Sunday and beginning of next week when temperatures near normal for a change.  Have a great weekend and keep an eye on radar the next 24 hours.

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Jul
31

Breaking Down The Coolest July On Record For Indianapolis

Posted By · July 31, 2014 at 4:58 pm

We’re wrapping up the coolest July on record for Indianapolis in style today.  Hazy sun, scattered clouds and a very slim rain or storm chance this evening.

RECORD

Though it’s still technically preliminary pending the results of today… it’s been a remarkable month for the weather record books.  The average monthly temperature of 70.1 degrees is the coolest July on record for Indianapolis.  This comes just two years removed for the city’s hottest July on record.

RECORDS

There were 12 days with lows in the 50s which is the most since 1979, and the 16 days with highs in the 70s is a record for July in the city.  Typically for July highs in the 70s come with rain and storms.  But we’ve enjoyed many dry, pleasantly cool days in the 70s due to a persistent flow out of Canada.  The month ends with rainfall just over 3″ and almost 1.50″ below normal.

NO 90S

There are only four other summers with a later date for the first 90 degree day.  This trend continues past the weekend, but we may near 90 next week.

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This will be our driest day until Sunday afternoon.  Temperatures near 80 degrees will slowly cool into the lower 70s by 10pm.  Enjoy if you’re heading out to Colts camp for their only evening/night practice this training camp.

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More patchy, dense fog will develop overnight into Friday morning… that’s the only weather issue when the gates open on the Indiana State Fair.   We’re anticipating a clear radar until after 2pm tomorrow when there’s a 50% chance of scattered storms.  This doesn’t mean the storms will move over the state fairgrounds, but you’ll need to monitor radar to plan around these cells.

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Saturday is Band Day at the fair and we’ll have a similar set up with a upper low moving over central Indiana.  Expect a dry start with storms flaring up around or just after midday.  This upper air feature moves east to allow for dry, warm conditions on Sunday.

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All long range signs point toward normal to slightly above temperatures early next week… with highs in the upper 80s Tuesday into Thursday.  A cold front provides a good chance of storms Thursday afternoon, and some of those could be strong.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

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Jul
27

Severe Threat Over As Fall Air Arrives

Posted By · July 27, 2014 at 8:03 pm

The severe weather threat is over for central Indiana as the last line of storms depart toward to the Ohio River.  Less humid and stable air continues to ride into the state from northwest to southeast after the passage of a cold front.

NOW DEWPOINTS

This Evening: Thought it remains oppressively humid in southeastern Indiana, you can see the drier 50 degree dew points already advecting into northwestern Indiana.  We’re all heading to Comfy Town tonight so you can open the windows before bed and let in the fresh air.

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Tonight: You’ll notice a big difference in the feel of the air by midnight and then wake up to cool, crisp conditions with lows near 60.  Mostly clear conditions are expected for much of the night, but it’s possible low clouds may creep in by sunrise.

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Monday:  The air mass overhead tomorrow will definitely have a fall feel.  It marks the beginning of a three day stretch of temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below normal with near record low levels Monday afternoon into Wednesday morning.

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The cold air aloft will allow intervals of low cloudiness to build along with spotty afternoon showers Monday afternoon.  The refreshing breeze continues from the north-northwest at 15 to 25mph.  Afternoon highs struggle into the lower 70s and set the stage for an even colder night.

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We’ll continue to be on record watch Tuesday morning with lows in the 40s and lower 50s.  Tuesday afternoon highs likely climb above the record low maximum, but not by much.

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Record lows will again be challenged Wednesday morning with lows near 50 degrees.  This stretch of unseasonably cool air ensures that July 2014 will be one of Indianapolis’ coolest on record, and August will at least start on a cooler than normal note.

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Despite the daily chance I have on much of the 7 day forecast, there will be ample dry time in the days ahead.  Enjoy the evening – Sean Ash

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Jul
27

Update On Severe Storm Potential

Posted By · July 27, 2014 at 2:21 pm

***Severe Storm Watch Northern Indiana / Tornado Watch Far Eastern Indiana Until 9pm***

TORNADOWATCH

The Tornado Watch includes Richmond, Connersville and Brookville… and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch includes Monticello, Marion and Peru.  At time of this posting (2:15pm) there was no immediate threat of severe weather.

SEVEREWATCH

But widely scattered strong to severe storms have developed along a cold front in Illinois and will impact central Indiana this afternoon this sharp cold front moves across the state.  All modes of severe weather are in play, but damaging wind and lightning appear to main threats.

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SPC

Though the eastern half of Indiana is technically under the Slight Risk… we believe severe storms are possible in western Indiana too.

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FutureTrak13 shows the linear nature of the storms moving across the state with strong wind gust and hail potential.

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Storms will quickly diminish by 10pm as the front races out of the state and delivers the much advertised fall air mass.  Near record cold temperatures will be possible Monday into Wednesday morning, with temperature anomalies of 10 to 20 degrees.

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Stay weather aware this evening until we give the all clear.

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Jul
23

Record Rainfall To Areas Of Dense Fog Tonight

Posted By · July 23, 2014 at 4:15 pm

It was a record breaking rainfall for Indianapolis today.  1.61″ is the new daily record and many locations in the metro area and southward received 1-2″ from rounds of showers and storms.

RECORD

In just a few hours the city nearly doubled the rainfall from the first 22 days of the month… this was truly what the doctor ordered for what was becoming parched landscape around the area.

RAINREPORTS

Unfortunately cities like Lafayette, Terre Haute, Muncie and Kokomo fell on the short end of the rain stick with values well less than one inch.  Lingering spotty showers and some rumbles of thunder are possible south of I-70… with a slow clearing to take place from the northwest to southeast.

Dewpoints

Dew points at the time of this posting remained in the tropical category.  So the Muggy Meter this afternoon hangs in the uncomfortable range, but will drop into the pleasant category by Thursday morning as drier air advects into central Indiana.

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The combination of clouds clearing and saturated ground tonight will produce areas of dense fog and low clouds for the morning commute.  It’s possible visibility may be low enough to near Advisory criteria so check back for updates.

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Once morning fog dissipates, Thursday will be one our better days… with sun and clouds, pleasant highs in the 70s and a refreshing breeze.  This is perfect timing for opening Brickyard 400 festivities at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.  Friday will also be nice before an unsettled set up arrives for Brickyard 400 weekend.

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Highs Friday will be in the upper 70s to near 80, but jump into the upper 80s and lower 90s on the south side of warm front Saturday.  Late Friday night and early Saturday morning this front may trigger the first of a few rounds of storms set to move through this weekend.

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Additional storms are likely Saturday night into Sunday morning and to be determined how quickly they’ll move out during Brickyard 400 Race Day.  Could be a challenging weekend at IMS.  We’ll narrow down timing and coverage in the coming days.

GFSANOMALY

Long range guidance has done but strengthen the idea of considerably below normal temperatures to wrap up the month of July.  The air mass within the base of a sharp trough in the eastern US will deliver temperature anomalies of 10-20 degrees over a good chunk of real estate.

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We may be challenging the record books Monday into Wednesday.  Here’s a list of record low temperatures to keep an eye on next week:

Monday / Record Low Maximum: 72 (set in 1928 & 1925) / Forecast: 72

Tuesday Record Low: 51 (set in 1881) / Forecast: 53

Tuesday / Record Low Maximum: 72 (set in 1889) / Forecast: 71

Wednesday Record Low: 51 (set in 1965) / Forecast: 53

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Have a great evening and please check back for changes – Sean Ash

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Jul
22

Storm Chance Late Tonight And Wednesday

Posted By · July 22, 2014 at 4:37 pm

We’re sweating through an oppressive Muggy Meter today in central Indiana with hot, hazy conditions.  Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s with heat indices firmly in the 90s.

Dewpoints

Patience is required if you’re not a fan of the sticky air, but will be rewarded Wednesday afternoon and evening.

MUGGYMETER SPC

There is a chance of some storms late tonight (after midnight) and toward sunrise Wednesday and northwestern Indiana is under a Slight Risk for severe weather.  But I have serious doubts there will be much storm coverage due to a warm air “lid” over central Indiana.

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Expect very humid conditions to start tomorrow, but drier air arrives in the afternoon after the passage of a cold front around midday.  The transition keeps storm chances in play for areas along, and especially south of I-70.

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You should notice a refreshing breeze kicking in later in the day that drag in pleasant air for late week.

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Thursday looks like a fine day with sunshine and highs in the mid-70s, which is perfect timing for the beginning Brickyard 400 festivities at IMS.  Expect plenty of sun and comfortable conditions.

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Our coolest temperatures happen Thursday night into Friday morning when many drop into the 50s.  Friday will be warmer as highs near 80.

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JET

Latest model trends point toward a potentially active set up this weekend in central Indiana… with multiple storm complexes possible on the edge of the hot dome centered to our west.  There is much uncertainty on timing and coverage at this point, but know that the first complex may arrive Friday night into Saturday morning.  This set up could have big implications on weekend plans and Brickyard 400 festivities.  Check back for updates.

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As this blog has addressed for several days now, all signs lead to another impressive bout of unseasonably cool air next week… beginning Monday and lasting into the first week of August.

GFSANOMALY

There is general consensus in modeling of a high amplitude trough over the eastern US that would deliver an air mass capable of 10 to 20 degree temperature anomalies.  So we’ll go from near 90 degrees today to highs in the lower to mid 70s this time next week.

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Notice in the image above (GFS ensemble data provided be weatherbell.com) the stretch of lows in the 50s beginning Tuesday and lasting for several days.  This will allow for a nice stretch of A/C free conditions.  However we do need some rain and hopefully your backyard gets some Wednesday or this weekend.

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Thanks for visiting the blog and have a great evening – Sean Ash

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