More Record Warmth And Heavy Rain Possible Christmas Week

So how are you enjoying the 7th warmest start to December on record?  Are you ready for more record warmth?  The unseasonably warm month has definitely not been a snow-lover’s delight though there is some hope later this week for snow showers.  A relatively decent intrusion of cold air arrives Thursday night into Friday to knock high temperatures into the 30s for a couple of days.  This will be quite a contrast from the record warmth this past weekend and be a certain jolt to the system.

TEMP COMPARISON JET JET 2

However this will a brief brush with typical winter air and all signs point toward another stretch of near record to potentially record warmth Christmas week.  In fact analog data (what the weather was like under similar conditions in prior years) depicts a 90-95% probability of above normal temperatures in the December 22-24… leading to high forecast confidence in the long range.

ANALOG TEMP PROBABLITY ANALOG PRECIP ANOMALY ANALOG PRECIP AMOUNTS(Above analog images courtesy of Cooperation of Institution of Precipitation Systems)

Temperature anomalies of 20-30 degrees means a few days in the 60s are possible and this would flirt with record levels preceding December 25th.

TEMP RECORDS

Though warm, this pattern would also be conducive of high chances of rain and possibly heavy amounts in the 1 to 3″ range.  Some of the latest data suggests this warmth may linger into Christmas Day for the eastern part of the country.

ENSEMBLE ANOMALY (image above courtesy of WeatherBell.com)

CHRISTMAS STATS

It should be noted that Indianapolis has only had three Christmas Days on record with highs in the 60s… the last occurring during the strong El Nino winter of 1982-83.  The timing of a cold front next week will be key to whether we’ll be warm and wet opening presents or turning colder.  Check back for updates – Sean Ash

Wet, Warm And Windy Monday Ahead

Though record highs weren’t set in Indianapolis, the city did set a record high minimum temperature of 55 degrees.  This marks only the 5th December on record with two days of lows at or above 55 and the first since 1998.

TEMP BARS HEADLIENS

 

 

MONDAY 12AM PLANNER TONIGHT

Despite the clouds, highs still reached balmy levels in the 60s and as expected rain predominantly impacts the western part of the state.  This axis of moisture eventually slides eastward overnight and into the Monday morning commute.  Definitely pack the kids with rain coats and umbrellas for the bus stop.  Temperatures tomorrow begin in the upper 50s and lower 60s before dropping into 40s by sunset.

MONDAY 5AM PLANNER MONDAY MORNING MONDAY 9AM MONDAY 5PM PLANNER MONDAY AFTERNOON

Clouds hang tough Tuesday with temperatures in the 40s for much of the day.  Though much cooler than this weekend, these temperatures remain above normal for mid-December.

TUESDAY 7AM TUESDAY 5PM JET 1

We’re monitoring much colder trends for later in the week with a shot of chilly air expected to arrive by next weekend.  Flurries and showers are possible both Friday and Saturday.  Highs next Saturday are looking to be 40 degrees colder than the 70 degree high we had yesterday.

JET 2 JET 3 7DAY

But long range indicators suggest this will be a brief hit of cold and signals are pointing toward a much above normal set up for the eastern U.S. Christmas week.  Stay tuned for updates – Sean Ash

Mist And Fog Tonight Followed By Showery Start Tuesday

Despite the gray day in Central Indiana it was mainly dry and warmer than normal to cap-off the month November as temperatures climbed into the upper 40s.  The blanket of clouds overnight, combined with a southwest wind, allow temperatures to remain steady in the mid to upper 40s.  Areas of mist and passing showers can be expected this evening and early tonight.

PLANNER EVENING HEADLINES PLANNER TUESDAY

Nearly saturated air and a warm front lifting across the state deliver lowering visibility the next 12 hours.  Be advised that areas of dense fog/mist may drop visibility to below a mile tonight and during the Tuesday morning commute.

VISIBILITY

RPM TUESDAY 12AM RPM TUESDAY 6AM

Scattered showers emerge mainly late tonight into Tuesday morning as the center of a storm system in the Upper Midwest gets closer.  After a showery, breezy morning we’re expecting a decrease in clouds late tomorrow afternoon from west to east.  This allows for a brief period of blue sky just prior to sunset.

PLANNER TUESDAY AFTERNOON RPM TUESDAY 5PM RPM WEDNESDAY

Colder air wraps into the state tomorrow night into Wednesday.  Scattered snow showers develop as the center of a cold core low spins across the state… possibly enough to dust up the ground in some locations.  This system delivers a seasonably cold shot of air but all signs point toward a return to above/much above normal conditions this weekend and beyond.

PLANNER WEDNESDAY UPPER PATTERN UPPER PATTERN WEEKEND 7DAY

In fact long range guidance suggests temperature anomalies of 10 to nearly 15 degrees above average into the middle of December.  We’ll be monitoring this closely.  Have a nice evening – Sean Ash

Damp And Chilly Weekend Ahead

Unfortunately our week long forecast of a wet Black Friday came to fruition and steady rain continues tonight.  Rain amounts are nearing an inch in many locations already.  With a few more hours of steady rain an additional .15″ to .30″ seems likely.

24HR CHANGE TEMPS TEMP TREND

Another big story is the much colder air with temperatures some 20 degrees colder than 24 hours ago.  Friday morning many woke to “lows” near 60 and Saturday morning temperatures bottom-out in the upper 30s with a blustery northeasterly wind.

PLANNER TONIGHT RPM SATURDAY 6AM RPM SATURDAY 12PM RPM SATURDAY 5PM PURDUE PLANNER RPM SUNDAY 7AM

Some late day sunshine is possible Sunday but clouds and showers quickly return Monday afternoon as the latest storm system impact the Midwest.  We’ll be on the warmer side of this feature which leads to mainly liquid precipitation.  However, colder air returns Wednesday when flurries and snow showers are possible.

RPM SUNDAY 5PM COLTS RPM MONDAY 5PM 7DAY

Have a great weekend – Sean Ash

Warming Up For Holiday Travel

A beautiful sunny day in Central Indiana with quite the temperature contrast from north to south.  Due the fresh, heavy snow pack temperatures remained in the 30s across the northern half of the state.  This was contrasted by much warmer highs in the 50s farther south.  Until the snow melts away we’ll see these large contrasts.

TEMPS PLANNER MORNING

We’ll need to monitor sky conditions and visibility closely overnight.  There’s some indication areas of fog may develop under a clear sky and light wind.  With morning lows in the 20s any areas that experience dense fog could likely see slick spots.  Confidence is rather low on this portion of the forecast and you should definitely check in with Chuck Lofton Tuesday morning.

PLANNER AFTERNOON TRAVEL 2

Plenty of sunshine on the docket tomorrow though with temperatures near 40 north, upper 40s central and 50s south again.  If you’re traveling for Thanksgiving on Wednesday much of the country will have relatively quiet weather.  A polar front slices the country in half on Thanksgiving and becomes the focal point for heavy rain in the southern and central Plains.  Central Indiana will be on the warm side of the fence and have highs in the upper 50s Thursday!  It should be noted there have only been 16 Thanksgiving Days on record in Indianapolis with a high at or greater than 60 degrees.

TRAVEL 3 FRONT OHV DASH PLANNER

Though a few showers are possible, clouds mainly have more bark than bite and much of the day will be dry.  Ideal running conditions are on tap for the Drumstick Dash in Broad Ripple.  With cloud cover and temperatures in the 40s you should have great times!  Good luck and thanks for supporting a great cause.

The aforementioned front creeps across our region Friday… delivering quite a wet day for shopping, traveling and the Circle of Lights.  This is subject to change, but it appears rather wet with temperatures falling into the 40s by 9pm.  We’ll adjust as timing and coverage as needed – Sean Ash

FRONT 2 CIRCLE OF LIGHTS 7DAY

Warm Up This Week To Near 60 For Thanksgiving

Despite a good deal of sunshine, Sunday was the coldest day in Central Indiana since early March.  In fact areas that received the heaviest snow Saturday never climbed out of the 20s after starting in the single digits.

HEADLINES

A weak fast-moving disturbance spreads clouds into the region tonight that will help limit cooling in snow pack areas.  This feature may have enough energy to squeeze-out some flurries or a little snow across the northern half of the state.  So don’t be surprised to see some more flakes.

SATRAD RPM 12AM TONIGHT RPM MONDAY 7AM MONDAY MORNING PLANNER MONDAY AFTERNOON PLANNER RPM MONDAY 4PM

Otherwise it will be a quiet, cold start to Thanksgiving week with brisk conditions Monday.  Expect morning lows in the 20s and highs slowly climbing into the 40s.  A gradual warm up into the 50s Wednesday afternoon and perhaps hitting 60 degrees Thanksgiving for only the 17th time on record in Indianapolis.

RPM WEDNESDAY MORNING RPM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EURO THANKSGIVING EURO FRIDAY

A mild holiday but also a rather cloudy Thanksgiving.  However clouds have more bark than bite on Thursday with just a slight chance of rain.  The slight chance becomes likely Friday with a decent soaker occurring along a slow moving cold front.  It’s too early to say if the rain will exit prior to Circle Of Light festivities but we’ll continue to update – Sean Ash

COLD FRONT FRIDAY SET UP 7DAY

Coldest Air Of Fall And First Flakes Of Season Hit This Weekend

We’re wrapping up a wet and windy day in Central Indiana with just spotty showers around the next few hours.  Wind gusts were impressive with Shelbyville, Anderson and Sharpsville all in the 50+mph club.  Many cities experienced gusts over 45mph which prompted a Wind Advisory for the region.  The axis of steady, heavy, wind-whipped rain continues moving east and we’ll see clouds cover this evening and overnight.

WIND GUST 1 WIND GUST 2 WIND GUST 3 HIGHS TODAY RPM 12AM THURSDAY

You’ll notice a much cooler feel to the air Thursday morning as temperatures settle into the lower 40s… nearly 15-20 degrees colder than this morning!  Tomorrow will be much brighter but also remaining breezy.  Highs creep back into the 50s during the afternoon.  Friday is quiet, but after morning sunshine expect clouds to increase as a quick-moving storm system takes aim on the Great Lakes.

RPM 7AM THURSDAY RPM 4PM THURDAY RPM FRIDAY MORNING RPM FRIDAY AFTERNOON

We began mentioning the potential for the season’s first flakes back on Sunday and that remains in play for this Saturday.  We’re still 72 hours away and there remains uncertainty on storm track, moisture and just how quickly cold air interacts with moisture… but the overall idea is that rain will either mix with or change to a period of wet snow heading into Saturday evening.  For now it appears the area with the greatest probability of seeing a grassy accumulation would be north of Indy.  But again it’s too early for specifics.

RPM FRIDAY EVENING RPM SATURDAY MIDDAY

HEADLINES

WEEKEND JET

With or without any accumulation it’s highly likely the coldest air of the fall hits Sunday.  We’re expecting wind chills in the 10 to 15 degree range and highs struggle into the lower 30s.  This would be our coldest day since March and sets the trend for early next week.  However, long range indicators suggest another warmer than normal set up for Thanksgiving.  It’s possible highs may get back to the near 60 for Turkey Day.  Stay tuned – Sean Ash

WEEKEND JET 2 EURO SUNDAY MORNING EURO SUNDAY AFTERNOON 7DAY

Wet And Windy Wednesday

A Wind Advisory in effect for Central Indiana until 5pm for possible gusts up to 50mph.  With the wind comes rather wet conditions for the eastern half of the state including the Indianapolis metro area.  A slow-moving axis of moisture creeps into the Ohio by late day, but between now and then expect wind-whipped downpours traveling south to north within the broader line.  Rain amounts approach an inch in spots.

WIND ADVISORY TEMPS RPM 4PM TODAY RPM THURSDAY 7AM

The passage of a cold front this evening brings in air more indicative of mid to late November.  Highs in the 60s today drop into 40s and lower 50s Thursday… despite a much brighter sky tomorrow.  A brisk westerly wind gusts up to 20-25mph and makes it feel cooler than the actually highs.  Calmer conditions arrive tomorrow night and allows lows to drop into the lower 30s Friday morning.  Friday begins with sunshine but finishes gray as clouds increase in advance of the next system to impact the Great Lakes.

RPM THURSDAY 4PM RPM FRIDAY MORNING RPM FRIDAY AFTERNOON NAM

We’re currently analyzing the latest data sets… but at this point aren’t making any wholesale changes to our initial forecast thoughts with this storm Saturday.  Rain mixes with or changes to a period of wet snow for central, and especially northern Indiana.  Accumulation is unlikely for our viewing area but a bigger possibility for parts of Wisconsin, far northern Illinois/Indiana and Lower Michigan.  The bigger story for the Indy metro area will be the intrusion of the season’s coldest air as temperatures fall into the 30s Saturday afternoon and lower 20s Sunday morning.

EURO SATURDAY MORNING EURO SATURDAY AFTERNOON EURO SUNDAY MORNING EURO SUNDAY AFTERNOON

Windy conditions wrapping up the strengthening storm over the Great Lakes pushes wind chills into the teens Saturday night into Sunday.  While this is certainly not uncommon for November, it will be a shock to the system given it’s been the 9th warmest November on record thus far.  Time to dig out heavy coats – Sean Ash

Rainy Wednesday Followed By Weekend Cold And First Flakes Of Season?

The forecast of gray and damp certainly verified in Central Indiana, though it appears we’ll be getting a break from steady precipitation this evening.  Due to the thick overcast and a steady southeasterly wind, temperatures remain steady if not rising a few degrees overnight into Wednesday morning.  A steady breeze may be enough to prevent widespread fog and drizzle from forming despite a fairly saturated atmosphere.

EVENING HRRR TODAY 8PM TONIGHT HRRR TOMORROW 5AM

A new batch of rain arrives Wednesday morning and it turtles across the state for the better part of tomorrow.  The slow nature, and nearly due south to north movement of cells in the line, produces locally heavy amounts between 7am and 6pm Wednesday.  Rain diminishes west to east tomorrow evening and paves the way for the pick of the week Thursday.

RPM WEDNEDAY MORNING RPM WEDNEDAY EVENING RPM THURSDAY AFTERNOON

We’ll be under a good dose of sunshine and highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s.  However gusty wind will take some bite of the sunshine with speeds of 15 to 25mph during peak heating hours Thursday.  A new system quickly emerges Friday night into Saturday as a fast-moving upper storm carves out a surface system that may deliver the season’s first snowflakes.  It’s still several days out and track remains uncertain… but several model runs point toward rain and/or snow moving across Central Indiana late Friday night into Saturday.  At this time accumulation is highly doubtful for the Indy metro area and certainly point southward.

RPM FRIDAY JET STREAM 1 JET STREAM 3

The latest GFS and Euro model outputs track the surface low across Central Indiana… which is typically a rain changing to backside snow showers type of set up.  It’s still several days out and track remains uncertain… but several model runs point toward rain and/or snow moving across Central Indiana late Friday night into Saturday.  At this time accumulation is highly doubtful for the Indy metro area and certainly point southward.

GFS SATURDAY GFS 2 EURO SATURDAY

But heavier precipitation rates and deeper cold air may enough in northern Indiana to overcome a relatively warmer ground to enable some accumulation.  Confidence remains low at the moment but we’ll post updates in the days ahead.  The bigger story ultimately will be the arrival of our coldest daytime highs since late March.  Highs Sunday in the mid-30s will be 30 degrees colder than last weekend!  We’re also staring down multiple mornings in the teens and 20s for lows.  It appears an active pattern carries over into Thanksgiving week and the beginning of December, but considerably uncertain on whether we’ll be on the warm or cold side of systems.  Please check back for updates as this forecast will likely change between now and then – Sean Ash

TEMP BARS 7DAY

Damp Finish To Monday As Rain Impacts Evening Commute

Hope you’re having a great Monday thus far.  As anticipated clouds continue to increase across Central Indiana and the shelf life of dry weather expires by 5pm today.  Regional radar and satellite shows the initial surge of moisture from a developing storm system in the Southern Plains.

TEMPS RADAR PLANNER AFTERNOON

All bets are off for dry conditions in the viewing area by 2-3pm and showers will steadily increase heading toward sunset.  After topping out in the mid/upper 50s, temperatures gradually fall into the 40s after precipitation begins.  This makes for a damp, raw evening and marks the beginning of a wet stretch into Wednesday afternoon.

HRRR TODAY 5PM HRRR TODAY 9PM RPM TOMORROW MORNING

Another surge rain and storms spreads across the state Tuesday morning.  We don’t expect any severe weather but downpours are definitely fair game and some beneficial rainfall.  Latest model data suggests steadier, heavier rain pivots north of the viewing area by late afternoon tomorrow.  The atmosphere reloads as the center of the storm moves east… placing Central Indiana in the cross hairs of an axis of heavy rain and thunder Wednesday.

RPM TOMORROW AFTERNOON RPM WEDNESDAY MORNING RPM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RPM RAIN AMOUNTS

By the time the rain diminishes late Wednesday afternoon we’re expecting a widespread 1-2″ accumulation.  Higher amounts of 2-3″ seem most likely across the southern half of the state.  A cold front pushes moisture east but ushers in unseasonably cool conditions Thursday into the weekend… with several days in a row with highs in the 40s.  Have a good day – Sean Ash

MODEL RAIN BARS RPM THURSDAY MORNING