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Feb
08

Here Comes The Cold

Posted By · February 8, 2015 at 6:29 pm

What a weekend!  Back-to-back days in the mid-50s for most marked Central Indiana’s warmest consecutive days since late November.  The high of 57 in Indianapolis is the city’s warmest temperature since November 30th, nearly 20 degrees above normal and only 11 degrees shy of a record.

WEEKEND HIGHS

The chill returns this evening but not before some major melting took place up north.  The picture below shows what’s left of the 4-6″ snow pack that began the weekend in the Peru/Bunker Hill area.

BUNKER HILL PLANNER EVENING

Areas of drizzle and light showers can be expected the next few hours as the cold front moves north to south across the region.

RPM 8PM SUNDAY RPM 12AM MONDAY RPM 8AM MONDAY

We’re going back to winter reality tonight with the arrival of a cold front.  By the time you wake Monday morning temperatures will be in the 20s with areas of freezing drizzle possible.

PLANNER TONIGHT PLANNER MONDAY

Though highs Monday will be closer to normal in the lower 30s, it will be a good 20 to 25 degrees colder than this weekend.  Clouds hang tough Monday before some partial sunshine returns Tuesday.

RPM 5PM MONDAY RPM 5PM TUESDAY RPM 2PM WEDNESDAY

Temperatures briefly warm into the mid-40s Wednesday before an Arctic front sweeps across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.  This sets the stage for a prolonged spell of below normal temperatures that begins with sub-zero wind chills and scattered lake effect snow showers Thursday morning.  Temperatures will remain 10 to 15 degrees below normal into next weekend.

WEDNESDAY JET STREAM SUNDAY JET STREAM 7DAY

Have a safe evening – Sean Ash

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Feb
05

Weekend Warm Up Into The 40s

Posted By · February 5, 2015 at 4:00 pm

The fresh snowfall from Wednesday and a clear sky last night led the way for the coldest morning in Central Indiana since January 4th.  Most locations that picked up 2-4″ yesterday dropped below zero for a few hours this morning… and single digits were reported as far south as Bloomington.  Despite a full dose of early February sunshine, daytime high temperatures remain a 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

TODAY

If you’re keeping score… Indianapolis is nearly 11″ below normal for winter (Dec-Feb) snowfall and about 38″ less than this time last winter.  We see very little chances of snow in the 7 day forecast, but do envision some rain to be in play late in the weekend.

SNOW STATS

It’s rain and not snow due the warm up into the mid and upper 40s we’re expecting.  It’s very possible that areas in southern Indiana may hit 50 degrees or higher… while the snow pack up north will have a modifying effect and keep highs closer to 40 degrees.

WEEKEND WARMUP PLANNER TONIGHT

Chilly, but not as cold tonight with lows in Indianapolis in the low to mid teens.  Areas up north will likely drop into the single digits quickly after sunset and then see temperatures hold steady or rise as a southwest wind picks up.  That wind flow and intervals of sunshine push temperatures well into the 30s Friday.

PLANNER FRIDAY RPM 4PM FRIDAY RPM 4PM SATURDAY

Saturday looks to be the brighter of the two days this weekend.  An area of low pressure moves across the state Sunday to bring scattered showers during the afternoon and evening.  Farther north the showers may mix with sleet or some freezing rain… but this should mainly be a liquid precipitation event.  The temperature see-saw continues next week with another system to impact the region Wednesday into Thursday.  Have a nice evening and check back for updates – Sean Ash

RPM 7AM SUNDAY 7DAY

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Feb
04

Dangerous Road Conditions This Evening As Bitter Cold Returns

Posted By · February 4, 2015 at 6:20 pm

Moderate to heavy snow continues to fall across the I-70 and I-74 corridors with locations in north-central Indiana already reporting 3 to 4 inches.  Road conditions are deteriorating rapidly and there have been numerous slide-offs along I-65 near Lafayette.

BOB SEAGAL JASON HEADLINES

Areas along I-70 can expect a general 1-2″ accumulation with areas north of I-74 finishing in the 3-4″ (locally higher) range.  If you live south of I-70 expect an 1″ or less before the snow ends by midnight.

TEMPS

Northwestern Indiana is already in the teens and the temperature tumble continues all night.  Though widespread snow diminishes by midnight, scattered lake effect showers and squalls continue into Thursday morning.  Some locations downwind of the NNW fetch off of Lake Michigan will see additional, albeit localized, accumulation before sunrise Thursday.

RPM 12AM THURSDAY RPM 8AM THURSDAY

Regardless of amounts in your area, roads get slick tonight and for the Thursday morning commute as temperatures crash into the single digits (if not sub-zero in northwest Indiana).

Expect sub-zero wind chills during the morning and only a modest “warm up” into the upper teens.  Temperatures tomorrow will be nearly 20-25 degrees below normal.  After tomorrow temperatures gradually warm and latest guidance suggest mid-40s for most Saturday/Sunday

WIND CHILL PLANNER TONIGHT PLANNER THURSDAY HIGHS TOMORROW 7DAY

Be safe this evening if you must travel – Sean Ash

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Feb
04

Snowy Finish Followed By Bitterly Cold Night

Posted By · February 4, 2015 at 12:57 pm

Don’t let our mildest afternoon in nearly a week fool you.  An area of snow across north-central Indiana will build southeastward along an approaching Arctic front.

TEMPS HEADLINES

We expect the snow to increase this afternoon… reaching the Indy metro area around 3 or 4pm.  The snow will fall moderately to heavy at times blanketing most areas along and north of I-70 with a generally 1-2″ accumulation.  Areas north of I-74, where it snows earlier and heavier, will have totals closer to 3″.  If you live south of I-70 expect an 1″ or less before the snow ends by midnight.

TODAY SNOWFALL FORECAST

Regardless of amounts in your area, roads get slick tonight and for the Thursday morning commute as temperatures crash into the single digits (if not sub-zero in northwest Indiana).

A persistent north-northwesterly wind in the wake of the front’s passage will drive down occasional lake effect flurries and snow showers tonight into Thursday…. possibly adding additional accumulation to areas downwind of the lake.

PLANNER THIS EVENING PLANNER TONIGHT

Expect sub-zero wind chills during the morning and only a modest “warm up” into the upper teens. Temperatures tomorrow will be nearly 20-25 degrees below normal.  After tomorrow temperatures gradually warm and latest guidance suggest mid-40s for most Saturday/Sunday.

TOMORROW

7DAY

At this point there are no big storms in our 7 day forecast… though numerous clipper systems will tease us as they cut across the Great Lakes.  Stay safe this evening and check back for updates – Sean Ash

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Feb
02

Chilly Night Ahead And Accumulating Snow Possible Wednesday Evening

Posted By · February 2, 2015 at 4:36 pm

You can definitely feel the wind of change blowing across Central Indiana today.  Temperatures are a good 5 to 15 degrees colder than 24 hours ago and wind chills remain in the teens to single digits.  Visible satellite imagery over the Ohio Valley shows the snow pack left behind from the Super Bowl Sunday storm.  You can distinctly see the track the storm took along the I-70 corridor… which dumped the heaviest snow totals from Chicago to Fort Wayne and Detroit.

1KM VIS

This was 50 to 100 miles farther north than some of the early model guidance used in constructing the forecast heading into the weekend.  Though we did our best to convey the uncertainty in track and our lack of confidence along the I-70/74 corridors… this was a missed forecast.  The image below from the National Weather Service in Wilmington, Ohio shows the track challenge in the complicated forecast.

TRACK

The “warmer” and more northerly track is why snow totals were significantly lower than anticipated.  The shift in track delivered Chicago’s 5th heaviest snow storm on record at 19.3″ and Detroit’s 3rd heaviest 16.7″… that Motor City’s biggest storm since 1974!

SNOW SINCE JULY 1ST SNOW LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME

But thus far this winter pales in comparison to last, with many cities in the Great Lakes running 20 to 30 inches less than this time last year.  Locally you can see the differences from north to south in our network of cameras.  Bunker Hill and Taylor are covered in a healthy 4 to 6″, while Nashville has a bare ground.  This difference in snow pack plays a vital role in our temperature forecast in the days ahead… proving challenging due to the ability of the snow to reflect sunlight and heat.

CAMERAS

After sunset temperatures should quickly drop into the single digits north of I-70, but even areas of no snow drop into the lower teens.  Chilly stuff regardless of your location.  High temperatures Tuesday will overall be warmer than today.  However areas with snow on the ground likely remain in the 20s and nearly 20 degrees colder than south central Indiana.

LOWS TONIGHT HIGHS TOMORROW PLANNER TUESDAY

A quick hitting disturbance looks to spread some snow back into northern Indiana Tuesday evening.  This will mainly impact areas along and north of a Crawfordsville-Tipton-Marion line with possibly 1 to 2 inches.  A more widespread snow threat arrives with a stronger feature Wednesday afternoon into predawn Thursday.  The combination of an approaching Arctic front and developing surface low pressure system will generate a shield of snow.  It’s early, but accumulations of 1 to 3 inches seem likely at this point.  We’ll fine tune numbers and timing tomorrow as new data sets arrive.

RPM PANEL SNOW POTENTIAL

This batch of snow is followed by another surge of bitterness for Thursday.  Lows that day will be in the single digits with sub-zero wind chills.  A brief, modest warm up Friday into Saturday gives way to another potential snow-maker Sunday.  Stay tuned and check back frequently as this active pattern looks to hold for a few weeks – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Feb
02

Slick Travel Overnight As New Snow Falls And Roads Refreeze

Posted By · February 2, 2015 at 12:28 am

Colder air returning on the backside of the departing winter system drops overnight temperatures into the mid and lower teens.  This will refreeze area roadways and make for dangerous travel conditions for the Monday morning commute.  In addition a new round of snow may drop localized accumulations up to an inch or two… especially north of Indianapolis.

TEMPS PLANNER TONIGHT

However wind and the falling temperatures will be the bigger weather story.  Gusts may near 30 to 40mph to cause blowing snow in northern Indiana.  Wind chills of 0 to -10 can be expected in what will be bitter start to the day for those who have to go outside.

HEADLINES RPM 7AM MONDAY WIND CHILL

The fetch off of Lake Michigan keeps snow showers and squalls in play even beyond the morning.  Not everyone will see snow showers Monday, but localized accumulation remains possible.  Temperatures really struggle within the cold air advection and we’re expecting “highs” to remain below 20 degrees in many backyards.

RPM 12PM MONDAY RPM 4PM MONDAY PLANNER MONDAY

The 7day forecast remains active with another chance of clipper snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, and again Wednesday evening into Thursday morning along an approaching Arctic front.  Plenty of winter left in my humble of opinion.  Stay safe if you’re traveling and Chuck Lofton has updates beginning at 4am – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Feb
01

Update On Super Bowl System And Refreeze Tonight

Posted By · February 1, 2015 at 3:25 pm

We always say “track means everything” for a reason.  In this particular case it’s a warmer, more northerly track that’s pushed snow accumulations northward accordingly.  Here’a  preliminary list of totals since 3pm… but note that I expect significant melting the next few hours to diminish what’s on the ground and what you ultimately shovel which will be on low end of forecast:

Peru – 4″

Purdue University – 3″

Fishers – 3″

Lebanon – 2″

Traders Point – 2″

Carmel – 1.5″

Castleton – 1″

SNOW FORECAST

The center of the storm will pass either over Indianapolis or possibly to the north.  This will put a good share of the viewing area into the “warm sector” and temperatures likely reach the upper 30s/lower 40s along and south of the I-70 corridor.  Roads will be wet to slushy in spots but passable for many south of I-74.

TEMPS TEMPS 2 RPM 5PM SUNDAY

Rain will be likely for several hours early this evening and possibly come down heavy in some locations in Central Indiana… with snow likely the more dominant precipitation type from Lafayette-Kokomo-Marion.  This area has the greatest chance of getting the higher totals of 6″ or more.  But I’m more concerned at the refreeze that takes place overnight into the Monday morning commute.

RPM 9PM SUNDAY RPM 12AM SUNDAY HEADLINES

Temperatures drop below freezing around or just after midnight.  By sunrise… low temperatures area wide drop into the teens and lower 20s.  This will make for rather slick roads due to snow and rain refreezing.  We anticipate delays and cancellations and added time to your drive Monday.  There will also be a period of snow and snow showers overnight before the system quickly departs.  Additional accumulation is very possible and it would be a more fluffier snow within colder air.  I’m definitely not ruling out another 1-2″ for some overnight.

PLANNER TONIGHT RPM 5AM MONDAY RPM 5PM MONDAY

Strong cold air advection keeps temperatures in check tomorrow.  Expect daytime highs in the teens for most and wind chills in the zero to 10 above range.  Clipper system snow is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday, with another chance of snow Thursday along an approaching Arctic front.  The busy pattern continues next weekend with rain/snow chances Sunday.

PLANNER MONDAY 7DAY

Thanks for reading the blog and remember video forecasts are also available at wthr.com/weather & our free Skytrak13 weather app http://www.wthr.com/category/225686/wthr-skytrak-weather-app.  Have a safe evening – Sean Ash

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Jan
23

Latest On Sunday Snow Potential: Going Up For Some

Posted By · January 23, 2015 at 4:44 pm

Stubborn low clouds put the kibosh on temperatures reaching the 40s today.  Instead many areas remained locked in the lower to mid 30s this afternoon.

TEMPS RPM FRIDAY 6PM

We’re monitoring the northern fringe of a vast precipitation shield that may drop some light snow over the southern tier counties… including cities like Seymour, Bedford and possibly North Vernon.  But for the most part clouds have more bark than bite this evening and tonight.

PLANNER TONIGHT PLANNER SATURDAY

This system quickly exits the region shortly after midnight but we’ll see residual cloud cover overnight.  Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s and lower 30s.  Saturday is quiet and slightly warmer with sky conditions varying from cloudy to partly sunny.  Highs near 40 degrees tomorrow, providing enough breaks occur.

RPM SATURDAY 6PM RPM SUNDAY 6AM

Then all eyes focus on a well advertised clipper system that arrives Sunday.  Light snow is possible by sunrise that day and then we’ll see a mix of snow and rain over parts of the region.  At this point the exact track remains uncertain and confidence is low due to some model spread on various low pressure tracks.  I’ve decided to split the difference of the far southern most track and the far northern most track.  Keep in mind a northern track leads to more mixing/rain and less snow… and more southern track puts higher snow amounts in play.  As always we’ll fine tune as new guidance comes into the forecast center.

RPM SUNDAY 11AM RPM SUNDAY 4PM RPM SUNDAY 8PM

Subject to change but the initial forecast for Indy is an inch or less… with some rain expecting to mix in from time to time.  Just north of I-74 to Lafayette-Kokomo-Muncie, and 2-4″ from Monticello-Peru-Marion to Fort Wayne.  This is a LOW CONFIDENCE forecast due to the track uncertainty, potential mixing of rain, and expected surface temperatures above freezing.

SNOW MAP PLANNER SUNDAY HEADLINES

Check back as this will likely change between now and Sunday.  Another feature of interest is the latest European model at 240 hours out.  Yes… it’s a LONG way out.  But it is showing a bitterly cold air mass from a cross-polar flow that would rival our coldest of the winter to arrive Super Bowl Sunday.  We’ll see if it verifies.  Stay tuned – Sean Ash

JET STREAM SUPER BOWL SUNDAY 7DAY

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