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Jun
18

Isolated Showers Now With Severe Storm Potential Tonight

Posted By · June 18, 2014 at 1:38 pm
Isolated showers have developed over central Indiana, but many places stay just hot and dry during early afternoon.
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All eyes are on a complex of storms over northern Illinois that is showing a tendency to strengthen during daytime heating.  These storms may impact cities like Lafayette, Monticello, Peru and Marion later this afternoon if the storms can overcome limited lift.
UPDATE: Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for the northeast corner of Indiana… including the cities of Peru, Wabash and Huntington.
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Better odds for most of us arriving tonight and in the predawn hours of Thursday.  Much of the region is under a Slight Risk for severe weather and damaging wind will be the main severe threat…though lightning and downpours will accompany any storm.
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Multiple rounds of storms are anticipated tonight and early Thursday.  Thunder and lightning may keep many of you up tonight and we’ll be updating on air and on line.
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Rainfall will be feast or famine…with areas in the storm’s path receiving 1 to 2 inches and perhaps locally higher amounts.  But it should be noted some areas farther south and southwest may not see a drop of rain the next 24 hours.
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After a cloudy, damp start for some Thursday morning, we expect clouds to thin for midday sunshine.  This will allow temperatures to warm quickly and help scattered showers and storms to redevelop during the afternoon and evening with a 50% chance of getting wet tomorrow.
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In the Skytrak13 7 day forecast we’ve made some adjustments to the weekend outlook as the latest computer model guidance suggests there’s higher chance of dry weather than rain.  Stay weather aware today and we encourage you to download the Skytrak13 Weather app to stay updated.  Have a great day – Sean Ash
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Jun
16

Hottest Air In Over Nine Months Arrives Tuesday

Posted By · June 16, 2014 at 1:58 pm

While not everyone will see rain or storms today, some areas will see locally heavy downpours and frequent lightning.  Where it’s not raining and the sun is out temperatures will warm quickly into the 80s.

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The Muggy Meter will be in the oppressive range and make for uncomfortable conditions, as dew points hover around 70 degrees or higher the rest of the week.

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Don’t cancel any plans this afternoon or evening but keep tabs on Live Doppler 13 with isolated chance of a storms or shower moving overhead.

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Any precipitation is driven by daytime heating and will quickly diminish after sunset.  Prepare to sweat it out early Tuesday, with muggy morning lows in the 70s.

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Elevated humidity teams up with our hottest air of the year Tuesday and Wednesday to produce heat indices near triple digits at times.  This will be the first 90 degree day in Indianapolis in over 9 months but comes near the climatological average for the first 90 degree day of the season (June 14th).

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Within the “hot dome” central Indiana will essentially be rain-free after today, but vigorous storms will erupt on the edge of the “capped” atmosphere to our north and northeast… where severe storms will be likely the next three days.  This is is similar to steam spewing out around the edges of “capped” saucer of boiling water on the stove.

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An outbreak of severe storms, including strong tornado potential, in the upper Mississippi River Valley on the nose of a warm air advection.  This complex will ride northeastward through the western Great Lakes.

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By Wednesday the risk of severe storms flirts with our far northern viewing area, and storm chances return Wednesday night into Thursday.

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There will be a daily chance of rain and storms heading into the weekend.  We may have to wait until Sunday evening for relief from the stuffy air.  Have a great day – Sean Ash

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Jun
15

Hot Week Ahead Features Storm Chances That Begin Tonight

Posted By · June 15, 2014 at 5:22 pm

Hope you’re enjoying what’s been a mostly sunny, warm Father’s Day in central Indiana.  An afternoon radar and temperature check shows mid to upper 80s and dry conditions.

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We’ll be monitoring central Illinois for storm development, but early day cloud cover has limited instability.  Despite the Slight Risk for far western Indiana this evening and tonight… I’m not convinced storms will be severe nor widespread.  But any storms that do develop pose a lightning, 40-50mph wind gust and downpour potential.

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Any storms will likely be after 8pm and the threat for thunder and downpours continues well after midnight.  So don’t be surprised if thunder wakes you up overnight and I do believe there will be storms to dodge for the Monday morning commute too.  Downpours would be the culprit in adding time to your drive.

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Rain and storms should be widely scattered during afternoon with pockets of sunshine around and humid highs in the mid to upper 80s.

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The Muggy Meter will continue to increase as well, and the humid heat Monday will help trigger widely scattered storms.  The middle of the week features our hottest temperatures since early September as area wide highs will be at or above 90 degrees.

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We’ll need to monitor the potential for various storm complexes later in the week that will erupt on the edge of what we call the “hot dome” in meteorology.  The first opportunity will be late Wednesday.  Stay tuned and enjoy your evening – Sean Ash

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Jun
14

Sunny Father’s Day With Storm Chances Returning Sunday Night

Posted By · June 14, 2014 at 7:12 pm

It’s been a picture perfect start to the weekend.  After morning lows in the 40s & lower 50s, afternoon temperatures have warmed quickly into the 70s under the bright sky.  Highs will near 80 degrees but cool rather quickly due to the continued existence of dry air central Indiana.

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With dew points in the 40s and a cloud free sky we expect lows Sunday morning to be in the mid-50s for the city and 40s for areas away from the urban heat island.

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Humidity remains comfortable early Sunday but you’ll notice a rather sharp increase in the Muggy Meter by sunset Sunday.

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Though daylight hours of Father’s Day will be dry… we’ll also be monitoring storm initiation in central/western Illinois Sunday afternoon for local impact.

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Some of these storms may hold together and cross the state line after 6pm and may be capable of damaging wind and/or large hail.  The far western/northwestern portion of Indiana is under a Slight Risk of severe storms Sunday night for this potential.

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Storm chances exist area wide Monday but there will also be plenty of dry time and heat/humidity become the bigger headlines next.  Computer model guidance continues to suggest the warmest temperatures of the year next week, and the first wide spread 90s since early September.

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Have a great evening and happy Father’s Day if you’re celebrating – Sean Ash

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Jun
14

Picture Perfect Weekend

Posted By · June 14, 2014 at 8:28 am

If you’re searching for weather perfection in mid-June you don’t have to look past your backyard this weekend.  We expect sunshine from start to finish today with just the occasional cirrus clouds blowing overhead from storms hundreds of miles upstream.

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This is all courtesy of a dry, pleasant air mass central Indiana that provided unseasonably cool lows in the 40s and lower 50s this morning.  Temperatures quickly recover under the bright sky and highs top out in the mid to upper 70s.

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Father’s Day begins comfortable and cool with lows back in the 40s and 50s.  After midday humid air begins to return on a south-southwest wind, with uncomfortable humidity by 5-6pm.  But Sunday afternoon will be rain-free and mostly sunny with highs in the mid-80s.

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Though we’ll be monitoring storm initiation in central/western Illinois Sunday afternoon… if this line were to impact the viewing area it would be after sunset tomorrow.

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Tropical air will make it very sticky next week and could feed some locally heavy storms as early as Monday morning.  Storm chances after Monday will be minimized due to warm air aloft and upper level high pressure.  This sets the back drop for some of our warmest temperatures of the year thus far as highs near 90 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday.

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The end result is a dry weekend and summer-like afternoon for Father’s Day.  Storm chances increase Monday and you’ll notice a spike into the uncomfortable range on the Muggy Meter.

After Monday we’ll be mainly dry but hot and humid as highs near 90 degrees.  Have a great weekend – Sean Ash

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Jun
11

Wet Wednesday

Posted By · June 11, 2014 at 10:41 am

Showers continue to focus on the central part of the state at this hour, with embedded heavier downpours.  Though daytime heating will be modest today (highs in the mid-70s) it will be enough to destabilize the atmosphere to allow thunder and lightning.

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Rainfall has been impressive with some spots seeing an inch or more since midnight.  Area creeks and rivers will remain high, if not over their banks.  Currently Indianapolis sits at 3.50″ for the month which is just an inch under the monthly average for June.   This marks the 15th wettest start to June on record according to the National Weather Service.

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Thankfully the upper disturbance causing the soggy weather will gradually break down overnight and depart to the east.  This will allow rain to diminish and pave the way for a brighter and much warmer Thursday.

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Highs tomorrow will shoot back into the lower to mid 80s under a mostly sunny sky.  We’ll be monitoring an approaching cold front Thursday evening that may drag in a line of showers and thunder after dark tomorrow.

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It remains unclear if the line will hold after sunset, but showers are fair game tomorrow night and very early Friday.  The passage of this front ushers in some very pleasant air for Friday and Saturday.

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Highs Friday drop into the mid-70s despite a bright sky.  Saturday begins comfortable in the mid-50s and highs will near 80 in the afternoon.

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Temperatures soar Father’s Day under a mostly sunny sky and expect summer-like highs in the mid to upper 80s.  Have a great day and check the radar before heading out – Sean Ash

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Jun
11

Soggy For Some This Morning

Posted By · June 11, 2014 at 4:15 am

A soggy morning for the heart of central Indiana as heavy showers rotate south to north around an upper level disturbance in central Illinois.  This puts the Indianapolis metro in the cross hairs of downpours the next few hours, and metro commuters will need to be mindful of some street flooding for the drive into work.

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Rain should diminish by midday but more scattered showers and storms develop during the afternoon.  As the upper disturbance breaks down later today spotty showers overnight will diminish and pave the way for a  brighter, warmer Thursday.

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Highs tomorrow will shoot back into the lower to mid 80s under a mostly sunny sky.  We’ll be monitoring an approaching cold front Thursday evening that may drag in a line of showers and thunder after dark tomorrow.

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It remains unclear if the line will hold after sunset, but showers are fair game tomorrow night and very early Friday.  The passage of this front ushers in some very pleasant air for Friday and Saturday. Highs Friday drop into the mid-70s despite a bright sky.  Saturday begins comfortable in the mid-50s and highs will near 80 in the afternoon.

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Temperatures soar Father’s Day under a mostly sunny sky and expect summer-like highs in the mid to upper 80s.  Have a great day and check the radar before heading out – Sean Ash

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Jun
09

Soaking Rain Coming To Central Indiana

Posted By · June 9, 2014 at 3:05 pm

Clouds have had more bark than bite today, but a few sprinkles remain possible the rest of the day.  The air mass remains comfortable for now with temperatures in the 70s.

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Mostly dry weather will hold this evening and we recommend you cut the grass or get any outdoor activities done before rain chances ramp up Tuesday morning.

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A slow-moving upper disturbance will create numerous showers and areas of thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday.

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While we’re not anticipating organized severe, rainfall amounts in the 1-2″ range will be widespread by Wednesday evening.  This feature begins to break down late Wednesday and mostly dry conditions are anticipated Thursday into Saturday night.

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Temperatures will begin warming up heading into Father’s Day weekend with highs in the mid-80s Saturday and Sunday.

For now we continue to mention the chance of a shower or storm late Sunday but it’s possible high pressure aloft and warm mid-level temperatures will put a lid on the atmosphere all weekend long.  It the second scenario proves true it will be very summer-like in central Indiana for all of the dads.

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It’s still too far out to narrow down specifics or have high confidence on a precipitation forecast.  Stay tuned as we fine tune the forecast – Sean Ash

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