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Jun
15

Hot Week Ahead Features Storm Chances That Begin Tonight

Posted By · June 15, 2014 at 5:22 pm

Hope you’re enjoying what’s been a mostly sunny, warm Father’s Day in central Indiana.  An afternoon radar and temperature check shows mid to upper 80s and dry conditions.

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We’ll be monitoring central Illinois for storm development, but early day cloud cover has limited instability.  Despite the Slight Risk for far western Indiana this evening and tonight… I’m not convinced storms will be severe nor widespread.  But any storms that do develop pose a lightning, 40-50mph wind gust and downpour potential.

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Any storms will likely be after 8pm and the threat for thunder and downpours continues well after midnight.  So don’t be surprised if thunder wakes you up overnight and I do believe there will be storms to dodge for the Monday morning commute too.  Downpours would be the culprit in adding time to your drive.

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Rain and storms should be widely scattered during afternoon with pockets of sunshine around and humid highs in the mid to upper 80s.

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The Muggy Meter will continue to increase as well, and the humid heat Monday will help trigger widely scattered storms.  The middle of the week features our hottest temperatures since early September as area wide highs will be at or above 90 degrees.

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We’ll need to monitor the potential for various storm complexes later in the week that will erupt on the edge of what we call the “hot dome” in meteorology.  The first opportunity will be late Wednesday.  Stay tuned and enjoy your evening – Sean Ash

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Jun
14

Sunny Father’s Day With Storm Chances Returning Sunday Night

Posted By · June 14, 2014 at 7:12 pm

It’s been a picture perfect start to the weekend.  After morning lows in the 40s & lower 50s, afternoon temperatures have warmed quickly into the 70s under the bright sky.  Highs will near 80 degrees but cool rather quickly due to the continued existence of dry air central Indiana.

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With dew points in the 40s and a cloud free sky we expect lows Sunday morning to be in the mid-50s for the city and 40s for areas away from the urban heat island.

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Humidity remains comfortable early Sunday but you’ll notice a rather sharp increase in the Muggy Meter by sunset Sunday.

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Though daylight hours of Father’s Day will be dry… we’ll also be monitoring storm initiation in central/western Illinois Sunday afternoon for local impact.

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Some of these storms may hold together and cross the state line after 6pm and may be capable of damaging wind and/or large hail.  The far western/northwestern portion of Indiana is under a Slight Risk of severe storms Sunday night for this potential.

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Storm chances exist area wide Monday but there will also be plenty of dry time and heat/humidity become the bigger headlines next.  Computer model guidance continues to suggest the warmest temperatures of the year next week, and the first wide spread 90s since early September.

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Have a great evening and happy Father’s Day if you’re celebrating – Sean Ash

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Jun
14

Picture Perfect Weekend

Posted By · June 14, 2014 at 8:28 am

If you’re searching for weather perfection in mid-June you don’t have to look past your backyard this weekend.  We expect sunshine from start to finish today with just the occasional cirrus clouds blowing overhead from storms hundreds of miles upstream.

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This is all courtesy of a dry, pleasant air mass central Indiana that provided unseasonably cool lows in the 40s and lower 50s this morning.  Temperatures quickly recover under the bright sky and highs top out in the mid to upper 70s.

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Father’s Day begins comfortable and cool with lows back in the 40s and 50s.  After midday humid air begins to return on a south-southwest wind, with uncomfortable humidity by 5-6pm.  But Sunday afternoon will be rain-free and mostly sunny with highs in the mid-80s.

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Though we’ll be monitoring storm initiation in central/western Illinois Sunday afternoon… if this line were to impact the viewing area it would be after sunset tomorrow.

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Tropical air will make it very sticky next week and could feed some locally heavy storms as early as Monday morning.  Storm chances after Monday will be minimized due to warm air aloft and upper level high pressure.  This sets the back drop for some of our warmest temperatures of the year thus far as highs near 90 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday.

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The end result is a dry weekend and summer-like afternoon for Father’s Day.  Storm chances increase Monday and you’ll notice a spike into the uncomfortable range on the Muggy Meter.

After Monday we’ll be mainly dry but hot and humid as highs near 90 degrees.  Have a great weekend – Sean Ash

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Jun
11

Wet Wednesday

Posted By · June 11, 2014 at 10:41 am

Showers continue to focus on the central part of the state at this hour, with embedded heavier downpours.  Though daytime heating will be modest today (highs in the mid-70s) it will be enough to destabilize the atmosphere to allow thunder and lightning.

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Rainfall has been impressive with some spots seeing an inch or more since midnight.  Area creeks and rivers will remain high, if not over their banks.  Currently Indianapolis sits at 3.50″ for the month which is just an inch under the monthly average for June.   This marks the 15th wettest start to June on record according to the National Weather Service.

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Thankfully the upper disturbance causing the soggy weather will gradually break down overnight and depart to the east.  This will allow rain to diminish and pave the way for a brighter and much warmer Thursday.

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Highs tomorrow will shoot back into the lower to mid 80s under a mostly sunny sky.  We’ll be monitoring an approaching cold front Thursday evening that may drag in a line of showers and thunder after dark tomorrow.

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It remains unclear if the line will hold after sunset, but showers are fair game tomorrow night and very early Friday.  The passage of this front ushers in some very pleasant air for Friday and Saturday.

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Highs Friday drop into the mid-70s despite a bright sky.  Saturday begins comfortable in the mid-50s and highs will near 80 in the afternoon.

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Temperatures soar Father’s Day under a mostly sunny sky and expect summer-like highs in the mid to upper 80s.  Have a great day and check the radar before heading out – Sean Ash

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Jun
11

Soggy For Some This Morning

Posted By · June 11, 2014 at 4:15 am

A soggy morning for the heart of central Indiana as heavy showers rotate south to north around an upper level disturbance in central Illinois.  This puts the Indianapolis metro in the cross hairs of downpours the next few hours, and metro commuters will need to be mindful of some street flooding for the drive into work.

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Rain should diminish by midday but more scattered showers and storms develop during the afternoon.  As the upper disturbance breaks down later today spotty showers overnight will diminish and pave the way for a  brighter, warmer Thursday.

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Highs tomorrow will shoot back into the lower to mid 80s under a mostly sunny sky.  We’ll be monitoring an approaching cold front Thursday evening that may drag in a line of showers and thunder after dark tomorrow.

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It remains unclear if the line will hold after sunset, but showers are fair game tomorrow night and very early Friday.  The passage of this front ushers in some very pleasant air for Friday and Saturday. Highs Friday drop into the mid-70s despite a bright sky.  Saturday begins comfortable in the mid-50s and highs will near 80 in the afternoon.

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Temperatures soar Father’s Day under a mostly sunny sky and expect summer-like highs in the mid to upper 80s.  Have a great day and check the radar before heading out – Sean Ash

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Jun
09

Soaking Rain Coming To Central Indiana

Posted By · June 9, 2014 at 3:05 pm

Clouds have had more bark than bite today, but a few sprinkles remain possible the rest of the day.  The air mass remains comfortable for now with temperatures in the 70s.

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Mostly dry weather will hold this evening and we recommend you cut the grass or get any outdoor activities done before rain chances ramp up Tuesday morning.

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A slow-moving upper disturbance will create numerous showers and areas of thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday.

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While we’re not anticipating organized severe, rainfall amounts in the 1-2″ range will be widespread by Wednesday evening.  This feature begins to break down late Wednesday and mostly dry conditions are anticipated Thursday into Saturday night.

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Temperatures will begin warming up heading into Father’s Day weekend with highs in the mid-80s Saturday and Sunday.

For now we continue to mention the chance of a shower or storm late Sunday but it’s possible high pressure aloft and warm mid-level temperatures will put a lid on the atmosphere all weekend long.  It the second scenario proves true it will be very summer-like in central Indiana for all of the dads.

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It’s still too far out to narrow down specifics or have high confidence on a precipitation forecast.  Stay tuned as we fine tune the forecast – Sean Ash

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Jun
08

Pleasant Monday Precedes Soggy Stretch

Posted By · June 8, 2014 at 5:16 pm

As anticipated there were some decent soakers in parts of the viewing area overnight and early this morning.

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But as you can see from the Skytrak13 WeatherBug observed rainfall maps above the heaviest amounts were relegated to areas north of I-70… where numerous 1-2″ amounts occurred.

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After the damp, cloudy start this morning central Indiana salvaged a mostly sunny and pleasant afternoon in the 70s.  Expect quiet conditions overnight into Monday with comfortable lows near 60.

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Monday features sunshine that will be filtered at times through high clouds, but we’ll be rain-free until after midnight tomorrow.

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A slow-moving upper disturbance arrives in the Ohio Valley tomorrow night and brings a high chance area wide for rain on Tuesday… so if you have grass to cut or other outdoor plans Monday’s your best option until Thursday.

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Many locations will see at least an inch of rain by Wednesday afternoon, with pockets of two inches or more.  Thankfully this disturbance before next weekend and summer heat builds into the region for Father’s Day.

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Highs next Saturday and Sunday should be in the mid-80s with a chance of late day storms on Father’s Day.  It’s too far out to have a high confidence on next weekend.

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For now we wait and watch for changes.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

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Jun
06

Sun, Showers and Storms Are All In The Weekend Forecast

Posted By · June 6, 2014 at 5:47 pm

We’re enjoying another picturesque day in central Indiana with arguably the best weather in the country.  Sunny and 70s is a nice way to wrap up the work week.

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Expect another stellar evening with clear, pleasant conditions and temperatures holding in the 70s through 7pm.  You’ll be able to open up the windows tonight with relatively dry air (dew points in the 50s) continuing to claim real estate in the Hoosier state.

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Lows Saturday morning will be near 60 under a clear sky.  Saturday begins bright and stays mostly sunny into early afternoon with highs in the 80s.

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We’ve been advertising weekend rain/storm potential all week, and can narrow down a rough time line now.  After 7pm Saturday all bets are off for dry weather, with rain and storms becoming more numerous in central Indiana after 11pm tomorrow.  This will not impact the Vintage Indiana Wine and Food Festival, but it will be a close call on the end of the Tim McGraw concert at Klipsch.

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There will be some decent soakers Saturday night into the early morning of Sunday… with one inch rainfall possible for some that get under thunderstorms.  We don’t anticipate severe weather but the thunder may wake you prior to Sunday sunrise.

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The upper disturbance causing the rain pushes east of Indiana early Sunday afternoon, and precipitation will diminish to offer some dry time to finish the weekend.

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Check back with Skytrak13 meteorologist Kelly Greene for updates.  Have a great evening and weekend – Sean Ash

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