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Stormy Commute For Some This Afternoon

Posted By · July 14, 2014 at 3:59 pm

A line of storms with a history of wind damage and severe wind gusts continues to trek across central Indiana at 40-45mph.  This line will impact the Indianapolis metro between 5-6pm with gusty wind, downpours and lightning… and earlier for areas west of the city.


Severe wind remains the main threat with this line… and along the leading edge is where the strongest gusts can be expected.


A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for central and western Indiana until 7pm, but the severe threat diminishes after the leading of the line passes your community.


The wind threat is over by 9pm and then we’ll focus on the stretch of near record cool air.  Expect additional warnings before this line weakens.


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Storm Watch Issued For Central Indiana

Posted By · July 14, 2014 at 1:20 pm

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for central Indiana, including Indianapolis, until 7pm.  A line of strong to severe storms will impact the region primarily between 4pm and 8pm, but storms in advance of this line have already developed and pose a wind threat as well.


Damaging wind is the primary threat with storms today and lightning/heavy downpours are likely in any storms that develop.


Latest analysis and hi-res modeling suggest this line will impact the Indianapolis metro commute between 5-6pm (give or take) and race into east central Indiana by 8pm.


These storms are along a sharp cold front that opens the gates to near record cold temperatures for several days beginning Tuesday.  While much of tomorrow and Wednesday will be dry, instability clouds and spotty showers do develop under the cold air aloft during peak heating.


Stay weather aware this afternoon and early evening until we give the all clear – Sean Ash

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Storms Monday Precede Unseasonably Cool Air

Posted By · July 13, 2014 at 5:07 pm

For most it’s a been a quiet, albeit rather humid, Sunday in central Indiana.  A storm cluster that impacted Bedford and Seymour continues to march into Kentucky this evening… with only a few spotty showers and storms left behind south of I-70.


If you’re heading to Klipsch for the Zac Brown show this evening no worries of rain.  But know that it will be humid so dress comfortably.


Expect the Muggy Meter to remain uncomfortable overnight and much of Monday.  This will change after the passage of sharp cold front that passes through the state between early tomorrow and predawn Tuesday.


Scattered strong to locally severe storms erupt along the front Monday afternoon and early evening.  Any storms should depart before midnight tomorrow.


For nearly a week we’ve advertised a significant, but brief, pattern change for this week.  A large dip (trough) in the jet stream will drop southward Tuesday and deliver near record temperatures Tuesday into Thursday morning… with temperature anomalies of nearly 15 degrees.


This equates to lows in the 50s beginning Tuesday morning and highs that may struggle to hit 70 degrees.  Low clouds are likely and a few afternoon showers are possible underneath the cold air aloft Tuesday and Wednesday.


Quiet weather is expected Thursday and Friday before a slight rain chance returns heading into next weekend.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

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Spotty Showers Next Few Hours Then Pleasant Air Arrives

Posted By · July 8, 2014 at 4:37 pm

Just a few isolated showers have popped during daytime heating along and ahead of a cold front that will bring a return to pleasant conditions to central Indiana.


The Indianapolis Skycam shows fair weather clouds and blue sky this afternoon… with breezy conditions as gusts have neared 30mph at times.  Shower chances are low in the 20-30% range, so most backyards stay dry this evening.


Temperatures are only the lower 80s but it feels much warmer due to lingering muggy air.  However, the passage of a cool front this evening will push the Muggy Meter back into the comfortable range for several days.


With dew points falling into the 50s, you’ll be able to open the windows at night and allow fresh air to cool the house.


The dry air arrives just in time to push isolated showers south of Victory Field before the Indianapolis Indians’ first pitch at 7:05pm.  If you’re heading to the game expect a pleasant breeze and mild temperatures in the 70s.


Any showers diminish quickly this evening and clouds should clear early too.  The only fly-in-on-the-ointment overnight and early Wednesday will be areas of dense fog that develop due to the early morning and lows dropping to near 60 degrees.


Any fog should quickly diminish to allow for a mostly sunny midday and just some fair weather clouds during the afternoon.  Expect mild highs in the mid to upper 70s tomorrow with gusty thermal winds developing to the tune of 10 to 25mph.


More spectacular summer weather is in store for Thursday and Friday across the Ohio Valley.  It appears our next storm chance will be Friday night into Saturday morning… though the verdict remains out on exact timing and coverage at this point.


Definitely nothing to cancel any weekend plans over at this point, but we’ll adjust the forecast as needed heading into the weekend.  Meanwhile… long range ensemble data continues to hint of another fall-ish air mass over the Ohio Valley next week that would produce temperature anomalies of 10-15 degrees Tuesday through Thursday.  It’s far away, but another trend we’re eyeing closely.  It is reflected in the 7 day forecast with highs dropping back into the 70s after a round of heavy storms next Monday.



Have a great evening and enjoy the refreshing air this evening – Sean Ash

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Strong Storms For Some This Evening And More On The Way

Posted By · July 7, 2014 at 4:38 pm

Widely scattered heavy storms continue to dot central Indiana this afternoon and early evening.  Though lightning and downpours appear to be the main threats today, locally severe wind and hail are possible in stronger storms…especially southwestern Indiana where the atmosphere is most unstable.  We’ve heard of numerous trees down in Brazil from likely downburst storm winds earlier today.


Storms may diminish in a few hours and many may not see a drop of rain until Tuesday morning.


Computer model consensus indicates widespread storms to impact the area again early Tuesday, with potential for damaging wind and certainly heavy rain that will impact the morning commute.


It’s uncertain how much redevelopment will occur after this complex passes to the east by midday.  Additional storms are possible Tuesday afternoon but at this point it appears the best instability and wind shear will be displaced farther south along the Ohio River.  But stay tuned for potential changes.


Less humid air arrives Tuesday night and paves the way for sunny, pleasant conditions Wednesday into Friday afternoon.  Lows may drop into the 50s Thursday morning and highs in the 70s look likely for a few days.

Warmer, humid air builds in for the weekend and may trigger new storms beginning as early as Friday night.  However…there should be plenty of dry hours this weekend too.  Stay weather aware friends – Sean Ash


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Muggy Air Fuels Storms Monday and Tuesday

Posted By · July 6, 2014 at 5:12 pm

You can definitely feel the difference in humidity this afternoon, with the Muggy Meter now well in the uncomfortable range.  This is due to an influx of gulf moisture as dew points are 15-20 degrees higher than 24 hours ago.  Sticky stuff is here to stay for the next 48 hours and will fuel possibly severe storms and areas of heavy rain Monday and Tuesday.



Another byproduct of the humid air is uncomfortable lows near 70 in the morning.  While isolated showers are possible this evening, it appears the best chance of rain and storms will be after midnight and just prior to sunrise.  We’ll need to monitor storms in the western Great Lakes to see if they’ll be able to hold together and make it into central Indiana after midnight and before sunrise.  It’s questionable a this point, but don’t be surprised to hear some rumbles of thunder overnight.



Strong to severe storms are possible Monday as a cold front approaches central Indiana… and much of the state is under a warranted Slight Risk.  With tropical air in place, areas of heavy rain are likely in any storms that develop.  All modes of severe weather are possible tomorrow, but there is much uncertainty on time/location of storm initiation after early morning storms and cloud debris.  Stay weather aware tomorrow.


An unsettled pattern remains in place Tuesday with storms likely and more heavy rain to start the day.


The aforementioned front settles south of the Ohio River mid-week… allowing less humid air and sunshine to return Wednesday into Friday.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash


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Picture Perfect Holiday Weekend

Posted By · July 3, 2014 at 5:00 pm

We hope you’re enjoying this fall-ish afternoon in central Indiana.  After a few early day sprinkles and showers, you couldn’t ask for a better July afternoon.  Sun and clouds with high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s… a good 10 to 15 degrees below normal.


Under the center of Canadian high pressure overnight we’re assured of our coolest start to July 4th in some 18 years.  Lows tonight will easily drop into the 50s and the aforementioned high keeps the sky sunny tomorrow with pleasant highs in the mid to upper 70s.


Friday evening will arguably be one of the best weather set ups for fireworks in recent memory.  A clear sky, light wind and comfortable temperatures in the 65 to near 70 degree range.  Enjoy and please be safe tomorrow.


As nice as our weather is… it couldn’t be worse right now for the Carolina coast.  Hurricane Arthur continues to strengthen and will likely become a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall overnight/early Friday morning between Wilmington and Cape Hatteras.


Radar and satellite imagery shows a healthy eye wall and numerous squalls coming ashore in the northeast quadrant of Arthur.  One saving grace may be the forward speed over 10mph and should accelerate more tonight.


The same high pressure system bringing fall-like weather to Indiana eventually pushes Arthur away from the eastern seaboard.


Here at home the comfortable air mass hangs around for much of the weekend and keeps the sky sunny Saturday and the first part of Sunday.  You’ll likely notice an increase in humidity Sunday afternoon, but we’re expecting rain-free conditions until after midnight Sunday.


An active weather pattern returns early next week with the potential for heavy storms Monday.  Have a great holiday weekend – Sean Ash

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Refreshing Breeze Brings Coolest Air In Over Two Weeks

Posted By · July 2, 2014 at 6:56 pm

A wind of change continues to blow across central Indiana today behind the first of two cold fronts. Temperatures are nearly 10 degrees cooler and most importantly the Muggy Meter is getting comfortable as dew points fall below 60 degrees.


The second front arrives this evening with perhaps an isolated shower or sprinkle, but delivers our driest air since June 15th.  You can open the windows and give the A/Cs a break tonight as lows drop into the 50s Thursday morning.


Clouds and sun will battle for sky supremacy Thursday, and a breezy northwest wind ensures temperatures stay in the low to mid 70s… our coolest day in over two weeks.


Heads up if you or someone know has holiday travel plans to the eastern seaboard for this weekend.  Tropical Storm Arthur continues to strengthen and will likely reach hurricane status this evening.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the South Carolina coast and Hurricane Warnings for the outer banks of North Carolina.  Arthur may be a strong Category One hurricane when it reaches the coast Friday.


An upper level trough that’s delivering our cool down will ultimately steer Arthur away from the U.S. mainland.


The core of Canadian high pressure arrives Friday morning and paves the way for a sunny 4th of July.  Expect comfortable lows Friday again in the 50s which will be one of the cooler starts to a 4th in many years.  Highs for the holiday will be pleasant in the 70s.


Evening conditions will be ideal for fireworks Friday evening, as it will be clear with a light wind and temperatures in the 60s.


The pleasant air carries over into the weekend, and we’re still expecting mostly sunny days and highs ranging from near 80 Saturday to the mid/upper 80s Sunday.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash


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