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Sep
17

Slow Warming Rest Of The Week

Posted By · September 17, 2014 at 1:18 pm

At this hour we’re seeing a mix of clouds and hazy sunshine with cool temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s.  Highs will range from 65 to near 70 and mark another day below normal.

NOW

Today:  There’s a very slight chance that a few sprinkles may fall across the southwestern corner of the state the next few hours as a storm complex dives southeastward.  The most likely impact from this feature will be cloud debris over the southern half of Indiana.

RADAR RPM PLANNER WEDNESDAY PLANNER EVENING

Tonight:  You’ll need a light jacket if you’re outside this evening for soccer practice or mowing the grass as temperatures quickly drop into the 50s by 10pm.  Seasonably chilly lows on the way tonight as readings fall back into the 40s by Thursday morning.  Areas of locally dense fog are very possible under a clear sky and light wind.

LOWS TONIGHT PLANNER THURSDAY HIGHS THURSDAY

Thursday and Friday feature abundant sunshine with milder highs in the 70s.  It’s looking like a picture perfect evening for Operation Football on Friday evening… with kickoff temperatures in the lower 70s and only falling into the mid 60s during the 4th quarter.

RPM 2 RPM 3 OPERATION FOOTBALL

Saturday is still the warmest day of the week.  With sunshine and a breezy southwest wind, highs should easily climb into the 80s.  Some new computer model guidance suggests the northern third of the state could see some rain and/or storms.  At this point we’re opting to keep the forecast dry and believe the better rain chances will be along and north of the Michiana borde

RPM 4 RAIN POTENTIAL

An approaching cold front puts scattered showers and storms in play for Sunday.  There is still some uncertainty on how quickly this front departs central Indiana… which dictates whether or not Sunday will be soggy or finish up dry.  Stay tuned.  But if this front slow enough to interact with residual moisture from Tropical Depression Odile we could see rain totals nearing an inch by Monday morning.

FALL JETSTREAM

Another batch of unseasonably cool air builds in behind this front and arrives just in time for the start of autumn Monday evening.  Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees cooler than normal early next week and continues a trend of what’s been a much cooler than normal September.  Average monthly temperatures are nearly 3 degrees cooler than normal and this will likely drop based on early guidance for next week.

7DAY

Autumn arrives in style as temperatures tumble into the upper 30s and lower 40s for Tuesday morning.  Canadian high pressure should deliver another prolonged stretch of early autumn conditions next week.  Have a great day and thanks for visiting the blog – Sean Ash
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Sep
16

Continues To Feel Like Fall

Posted By · September 16, 2014 at 3:11 pm

The astronomical start to autumn is still six days away but central Indiana has had a jump start on the season for nearly a week.  Today is no exception with low clouds and unseasonably cool temperatures in the 60s.

NOW

Tonight:  Areas north and northwest of Indianapolis have a much brighter sky compared to mostly overcast in the southern and southeastern portion of the state.  Toward and after sunset clouds should break as the lower atmosphere stabilizes.  Get ready for another seasonably chilly night as low temperatures drop into the 40s Wednesday morning.

PLANNER EVENING LOWS TONIGHT

Wednesday:  Some morning sunshine will again help trigger another scattered to broken deck of cumulus clouds.  At times the sky will be mostly cloudy and at times a fair amount of blue… so we’ll call it variably cloudy.  Temperatures slowly rise into the 60s but highs will be some 10 degrees cooler than normal.

BUS STOP HIGHS WEDNESDAY

High pressure building into Ohio Valley late this week sets the stage for mostly sunny conditions Thursday into Saturday.  The brighter sky leads to milder afternoons with the heat peaking Saturday in the lower 80s.  Keep in mind morning low temperatures remain rather chilly in the 40s but the warm ups will be quicker due to less cloud cover.

RPM RPM 2 RPM 3

We typically don’t look to the East Pacific/Baja region for our next rain-maker, but the remnants of Tropical Storm Odile very well could be just that.  Flooding and Flash Flooding rains for Arizona, New Mexico and Southern Plains appear likely.  This moisture will be creep into the Ohio Valley and perhaps interact with an approaching front on Sunday.  Depending on the timing of this front, rain could be widespread Sunday… though it should be noted that a faster frontal passage would result in less rain.  Both outcomes are on the table at this point.

TROPICAL RAIN POTENTIAL

The autumnal equinox is 10:29pm Monday, and long range guidance suggests another decent push of cool air early next week behind the passage of the front Sunday.  If this verifies we’re staring down a few days in the 60s again.  Stay tuned.

7DAY

Have a great evening – Sean Ash

 

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Sep
15

Update On Rain: Becoming Wet For Colts Tailgating

Posted By · September 15, 2014 at 1:17 pm

The dry weather window in Indianapolis is closing rapidly with a steady shield of rain and embedded thunder arriving by 3pm.  It’s been wet a stormy morning in Fowler, Lafayette, Kokomo up to Fort Wayne and this axis shifts east-southeastward to impact Monday Night Football festivities.

RPM

FutureTrak13 shows a damp stretch leading up to kickoff, likely resulting in the roof being closed tonight.  While severe weather is highly unlikely, downpours and some lightning may force tailgaters indoors at times.

RPM 2 RPM 3 RPM 4

We’re advising to pack an umbrella for the walk into and out of Lucas Oil Stadium with lingering showers around at midnight.

RPM 5 PLANNER MONDAY COLTS

Showers end from west to east shortly after midnight with cool lows ranging from the mid-40s to mid-50s.  Tuesday begins with mostly cloudy conditions but peeks of blue sky can be expected during the afternoon and pleasant highs in the 60s.

LOWS TONIGHT PLANNER TUESDAY HIGHS TUESDAY

Another prolonged stretch of glorious fall weather lasts from tomorrow into the first part of the weekend.  Expect several nights in the 40s, comfortable afternoons in the 70s with heat peaking Saturday around 80 degrees.  Saturday night into Sunday will be our next chance of rain and storms.  This too will be followed by another nice stretch of days.  Have a great afternoon and plan to work around rain.

7DAY

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Sep
11

Autumn Air Arrives And Is Here To Stay

Posted By · September 11, 2014 at 4:33 pm

What a difference a day makes.  From a humid, stormy Wednesday to cloudy and much cooler today.

TEMPS 24 HOUR CHANGE

Underneath overcast and with a persistent north-northwesterly wind temperatures are 15 to nearly 20 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago.

Tonight: there will be partial clearing and temperatures slowly drop into the lower 50s by sunrise Friday… with some 40s possible where clouds clear enough.

EVENING PLANNER LOWS TONIGHT

Tomorrow:  Light jackets are a good idea for kids at the bus stop.  Though a period of sun is possible in the morning, tomorrow will be similar to today with a healthy amount of low cloud overcast.  Highs Friday will again be locked into the mid and upper 60s.

FRIDAY PLANNER HIGHS FRIDAY

Jacket weather is in store for Operation Football with cool conditions in the lower 60s for kickoff and 50s by the end of the fourth quarter.  The pesky cloud cover holds tough tomorrow night into Saturday morning, and upper disturbance swinging through the Great Lakes may trigger some light showers early Saturday.

OPERATION FOOTBALL RPM RPM 2 RPM 3 RPM 4

Clouds clear Saturday evening and pave the way for the coldest night with lows in the mid to low 40s.  After a chilly start, Sunday looks spectacular with blue sky and highs near 70.

LOWS SUNDAY

A brief shot of showers Monday evening and night before high pressure and stable conditions quickly return.  It’s too early to tell if this will be enough to impact tailgating for the Colts home opener against the Eagles, but we’re watching closely.

COLTS

Quiet, calm weather quickly returns Tuesday and looks to last well into the end of the week.

7DAY

Have a great evening – Sean Ash

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Sep
10

Flash Flood Threat Increasing

Posted By · September 10, 2014 at 8:28 pm

Though a Tornado Watch remains in play for the eastern half of Indiana, the chances of any severe weather or brief tornado spin ups is slim.  Unfortunately, and as expected, “training” storms combined with a highly moist atmosphere are dropping torrential rainfall for parts of central Indiana.

RADAR

The last hour or so the tracks have been placed across the northern half of the metro area, and many locations within this zone will likely receive 2-3″+ rain totals before midnight.  A Flash Flood Warning is in effect until midnight for this region and additional warnings and or advisories may be needed.

WARNING RADAR 2

More heavy storms are lining up along a cold front in eastern Illinois and these will impact southern Indiana.  A Flash Flood Watch remains in place until 2am and 1-3″ rain totals are possible for cities farther south that haven’t received much today.

FLOOD WATCH

The threat for heavy rain or locally strong storms will end northwest to southeast between 9pm and midnight.  Locally strong wind gusts remain possible in southern and southeastern Indiana where there’s been little rain today.

RPM RPM 3 RPM 2 PLANNER

By the time you wake up Thursday morning our focus quickly shifts to the much advertised fall chill.  Temperatures Thursday will struggle into the upper 60s with a fair amount of clouds that slowly diminish later in the day.

THURSDAY MORNING PLANNER THURSDAY

The coolest air will arrive this weekend and push lows into the 40s at times and highs remain in the 60s.

7DAY

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Sep
10

Update On Tornado and Flash Flood Watches

Posted By · September 10, 2014 at 3:37 pm

You’ll need to stay weather aware this evening with areas of heavy rain likely and severe storms possible.  The atmosphere over central Indiana remains highly sheared and conducive of low-topped storms with the ability to produce brief spin-ups.  Many of the severe thunderstorm warnings issued thus far have been accompanied with very little lightning.  This is from limited instability and lift from clouds and waves of showers.

RADAR

A game changer could be the areas of clearing in southern Illinois and southwestern Indiana this afternoon.  This will aid in the development of new storms and existing storms along a cold front to strengthen.  It’s only a Slight Risk but deserves our attention with locally strong wind and brief tornadoes possibly this evening.

SPC

 

UPDATE: Tornado Watch expanded west to account for clouds that have cleared to increase instability.  This now includes Lafayette, Crawfordsville, Terre Haute as well as the Indianapolis metro area until 9pm.

WATCH

 

Update:  A Flash Flood Watch expanded farther to include Bloomington, Columbus, Seymour and Bedford until 2am.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH

 

Locally heavy rain remains very likely due to a highly saturated, tropical air mass blanketing the Ohio Valley.  The approaching cold front will create linear/banded rain with the ability to drop torrential amounts in a short time.

HRRR RAIN POTENTIAL

Hi-res modeling indicates areas of 2″+ rainfall amounts are possible between now and midnight.  Flash Flood Warnings are imminent if this verifies.  Use caution driving this evening and overnight.

RPM RAIN POTNETIAL

The latest run of FutureTrak13 shows the threat of severe weather ending around midnight… but notice the “bowing” features in the modeled radar output.  This is indicative of damaging wind potential, and in this environment brief tornadoes would be possible too.

TODAY

wednesday storm threats

Another reason for the severe potential is the transition from warm, muggy air to an air mass for accustomed to mid-October.  Temperatures tomorrow begin in the mid to lower 60s and that’s where they’ll finish thanks to a steady diet of cold air advection.

RPM THURS MORNING

RPM THURS AFTERNOON

By Friday morning lows will be near 50 and this paves the way for a fall-ish weekend in central Indiana.  We continue to mention the possibility of a period of showers and sprinkles Friday night into Saturday morning.  It’s a quick hitter and much of Saturday and Sunday are quiet but cool.

RPM FRIDAY MORNING 7day

Stay safe this evening and check back for updates – Sean Ash

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Sep
09

Wet Wednesday: Latest On Flash Flood and Severe Storm Potential

Posted By · September 9, 2014 at 2:25 pm

Good Tuesday afternoon everyone.  The early gloom has thinned across central and eastern Indiana, but western sections of the state likely remain mostly overcast and will have some light showers and sprinkles.  The clouds and rain a part of the complex we discussed Monday and a result of moisture increasing from a southerly wind.

TUESDAY PLANNER

Tonight:  The combination of clouds and the more humid air leads to a milder night with lows in the mid to upper 60s.  By sunrise it’s possible, if not likely, that the next complex from the west arrives on the Illinois/Indiana border.  This marks the beginning of an unsettled Wednesday that has multiple rounds of rain and storms.

WEDNESDAY PLANNER SPC DAY 2

Wednesday:  The entire viewing area remains under a Slight Risk for severe weather Wednesday.  As mentioned for several days in this blog… this is a highly conditional set up and will be impacted greatly by early day storms and clouds.  Heavy rain and potential flash flooding remain our highest storm threats.

UPDATE:  A Flash Flood Watch issued for central Indiana includes the Indianapolis metro area and for good reason.  Latest hi-res modeling indicates 2-4″ rainfall potential, which coincides with the increasing precipitable water values we discussed in Monday’s blog:

FLASH FLOOD WATCH RAIN POTENTIAL

Though all modes of severe weather are in play tomorrow, the probabilities are lower due to lacking instability and uncertainty in model output.

STORM THREATS RPM WED 6AM RPM WED 12PM

Wednesday:  Early morning storms have heavy rain potential but likely will be non-severe.  How quickly this first round departs/dissipates dictates how quickly the next wave develops.  At this point we’re bracketing the hours between 4pm and 12am to be weather aware.  A line or multiple lines of strong to possibly severe storms are possible with damaging wind potential and very heavy rain.  This is when the flash flooding risk heightens with 1″-2″ per hour rain rates very common.

RPM WED 4PM RPM WED 7PM RPM WED 9PM RPM WED 11PM

The storm threat ends after midnight tomorrow and by that time many places in central Indiana will have 1-3″ rainfall totals, but locally higher amounts very possible if “training” of storms develops.  After any flooding subsides the focus shifts to the arrival of unseasonably cold air.

RPM TEMPS 9PM

Temperatures Thursday morning range from near 60 to 65… but will likely struggle to budge much under low clouds and a persistent north-northwest wind advecting a mid-October air mass into the state.

RPM TEMPS 6AM THUR RPM TEMPS 11AM THUR

Temperatures will be a good 10-15 below this weekend with several mornings in the 40s and afternoons in the mid-60s.  Comfortably cool if you like fall.  Despite an abundance of afternoon clouds flaring under the cold air aloft, we’ll be mostly dry after tomorrow night.  The only exception is a chance for showers and sprinkles Friday night into Saturday morning as an upper disturbance swings across the Ohio Valley.

7DAY

Have a great day and check back for updates on timing of storms – Sean Ash

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Sep
08

Heavy Rain Event Wednesday Precedes Fall Chill

Posted By · September 8, 2014 at 4:13 pm

Central Indiana once again can claim some of the best weather across the county.  Comfortable humidity, sunshine, light wind and mild highs in the upper 70s certainly fit the bill.

PLANNER MONDAY

This Evening:  If you have outdoor plans after work or school enjoy comfortable conditions and a mostly clear sky.  Temperatures remain in the 70s past 7pm and drop into the 60s by midnight.

MONDAY 3PM TEMPS

The atmosphere remains dry over much of the Ohio Valley.  We’ve been monitoring an area of rain and thunder sitting over Iowa.  This has formed on the nose of a returning warmer, more humid air mass… and aided by an increasing wind flow in the lower levels.  It’s possible this feature maintains overnight, tracks southeastward and perhaps sneaks across the Illinois border with some showers early Tuesday morning.  Check in with Angela Buchman this evening and Chuck Lofton in the morning for updates.

RADAR

The remnant moisture of a tropical storm creeps northeastward this week and interacts with an approaching cold front to deliver heavy rain amounts here mid-week.

RADAR 2 TONIGHT

Tonight:  Just clear overnight with comfortable early morning temperatures in the 50s Tuesday.

LOWS TONIGHT RPM TUESDAY 7AM

FutureTrak13 shows the aforementioned rain complex moving across central Illinois by 7am tomorrow.  With little upper level support and lack of moisture in Indiana, it mainly delivers a period of mostly cloudy conditions.  But some leftover showers can’t be ruled out… especially west of Indianapolis.

RPM TUESDAY 12PM RPM TUESDAY 5PM

Tuesday:  Midday clouds thin for a mostly sunny, warmer finish with highs in the 80s.  Humidity remains tolerable tomorrow before better “juice” arrives Wednesday.

HIGHS TUESDAY PLANNER TUESDAY RPM WEDNESDAY 7AM

One of a few rounds of rain and storms hits the doorstep Wednesday morning.  This will likely be in a weakening phase, but strong enough to drop heavy rain and lightning.  How quickly its rain and cloud deck can clear dictates our severe potential later Wednesday.  While wind shear will be supportive of severe storms, lingering clouds may limit daytime heating and atmospheric instability.  It’s too early to tell at this point if instability will be sufficient for a widespread or more localized severe storm event.

RPM WEDNESDAY 12PM RPM WEDNESDAY 5PM RPM WEDNESDAY 9PM

SPC

For now the entire state of Indiana remains under a Slight Risk of severe weather.  While confidence is low on severe storm coverage, there remains medium to high confidence on a heavy rain event.  Lift from the approaching cold front, a southwest to northeast upper flow, and modeled precipitable water (PWATs) values in the 1.75-2.2″ bring a heightened risk of flooding and flash flooding.

RAIN POTENTIAL

Though highly conditional due to possible lingering cloud cover, damaging wind and tornadoes can’t be ruled out as all modes of severe weather in play at this point.

STORM THREATS RPM THURSDAY 7AM

By Thursday morning we’ll be behind the well advertised cold front that delivers our coldest air since mid-May.  Thursday morning begins in the lower 60s, but a brisk northwest advects a steady diet of cool air and likely keeps temperatures in the 60s much of the day.  Temperatures Friday morning, especially northwest of Indianapolis, will drop in the 40s.

LOW THURSDAY JET STREAM

We’ll spend several days in an air mass that will be 10-15 degrees cooler than normal.  This equates to lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s… an air mass more indicative of mid-October!  Upper level energy swinging through Friday night may squeeze out some sprinkle or spotty showers.  After that passes early Saturday morning will should have a decent dose of sun with scattered fair weather clouds during daytime heating.

7DAY

Have a great evening and check back for updates regarding severe potential – Sean Ash

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