Most of Central Indiana remains under a risk for strong to severe storms… albeit a 15% probability of severe wind/hail and a 2% probability of tornadoes. There’s a 30% probability of severe wind (>=58mph) and 5% tornado probability in Northwest Indiana…including the cities of Lafayette and Folwer.
This is where atmospheric instability and wind shear will be maximized. For now heavy storms continue to impact mainly the northern fringe of the WTHR viewing area and including cities like Fowler, Logansport, Peru and Marion.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch in far Northwest Indiana and Central Illinois may be expanded farther east this evening to include the I-70/74 corridors and the Indianapolis metro area.
Heavy rain and gusty storms increase farther south after 8pm… with a few rounds of heavy storm clusters expected between 8pm this evening and 8am Monday. Stay weather aware and we’re advising folks to keep the weather radios on tonight. Flooding and Flash Flooding rainfall is likely with 1-3″+ amounts to occur tonight into midday Monday. Use caution traveling tonight and during the Monday morning commute.
The threat of severe wind/hail diminishes after 2pm but periods of heavy rain/thunder continue on and off until late Monday evening. The week ahead features fog potential Tuesday morning, hot/humid highs nearing 90 degrees Wednesday/Thursday, and scattered storm chances heading into next weekend. Check back for updates on a stormy night – Sean Ash
Today marks a quarter century since 37 tornadoes ripped across Indiana, which remains a daily tornado record for the state. The Hoosier state was at the epicenter of this outbreak that impacted 9 states with a total of 65 tornadoes. This was Indiana’s largest tornado outbreak since the “Super Outbreak” of April 3, 1974.
(image courtesy of NWS Indianapolis)
The outbreak claimed 9 lives nationwide… 8 of which were Hoosiers. The town of Petersburg was hardest hit in Indiana, where 6 people died and nearly half the town was destroyed. You can read more about the outbreak from the National Weather Service in Indianapolis.
It’s looking and feeling more like late March than the first day of June in Central Indiana. Temperatures have primarily been in the 50s today, but the expected low cloud deck will gradually thin out heading toward sunset. In fact we’re seeing some peeks of blue sky in western Indiana and this trend slowly continues to spread eastward the next few hours as an upper disturbance moves into Ohio.
As sprinkles and light rain depart to the east, and the sky brightens, temperatures rise into the mid and upper 60s between now and 8pm… setting the stage for a rather pleasant finish to the day as precipitation departs and the air remains refreshing. You’ll need long sleeves this evening if you’re heading to Victory Field for the Indianapolis Indians game. First pitch temperatures in the mid-60s drop to the upper 50s by the 9th inning.
Clouds departing tonight set the stage for unseasonably cool lows in the 45 to 50 range. This will be the coldest temperatures of the 7 day forecast. A brighter sky tomorrow leads to much warmer highs in the mid-70s in what will be pleasant Tuesday. The warm up continues into mid-week with highs in the 80s Wednesday and Thursday.
It appears the next chance of showers and storms arrives Friday… though admittedly there is some model divergence in the late week pattern that puts low forecast confidence in play Friday into the weekend. Check back for updates – Sean Ash
The transition from warm, muggy air Saturday to much cooler air today not only triggering heavy rounds of storms and some much needed rainfall this weekend. Rainfall amounts in the 1-3″ were widespread along and north of I-70 corridor… with 4″ to 5″+ totals in Madion and Howard counties. This put a little dent in the rainfall deficit but we’re still over 2″ below normal since May 1st and over 4″ since January 1st.
The air mass transition also delivered the coolest May 31st high since 2003. After hitting 84 degrees Saturday, clouds and a northeasterly wind kept temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
A pleasant byproduct of the air mass transition is a comfortable Muggy Meter. Withe dewpoints in the 40s and 50s you’ll be able to open up the windows and let some fresh air in. Of course this is a moot point if you suffer from allergies as the pollen count remains in the medium to high range after the recent rainfall.
Clouds hang tough tonight with occasional sprinkles. You’ll need a light jacket in the morning with lows near 50 degrees. Overcast slowly breaks for some peeks of sun in the afternoon, but not soon enough to allow temperatures to warm much above the upper 60s. Another unseasonably cool night is on tap Monday night into Tuesday morning when lows may drop into the 40s area wide.
Tuesday features a brighter sky and milder higher in the mid-70s as a result. A gradual warming trend occurs later in the week with only a slim chance of rain in the long range forecast.
You can certainly feel the increased humidity today and combined with warm highs in the low/mid-80s makes it feel more like the upper 80s in spots. A stray shower is possible but much of the region won’t see a drop of rain this evening. We’ll monitor storms in Central Illinois for potential impact to the far western counties of the viewing area before midnight… but my hunch is that they’ll weaken before arriving.
We still expect some dry hours early Saturday but we’re definitely on borrowed time for dry weather after midday tomorrow. Humid highs in the mid-80s team up with an approaching cold front to trigger widespread rain and heavy storms… with the greatest coverage this weekend expected between 4pm Saturday to 10am Sunday. Localized severe storms are possible tomorrow, but lightning and downpours are the main threats.
Pack your poncho and stay weather aware if you’re heading to either Victory Field, Klipsch Music Center or the Lawn At White River State Park Saturday evening. All venues will impacted by the expected increase in storm coverage.
The weekend rain won’t be a hit with your outdoor, but make no mistake this is beneficial and much needed rainfall. With better computer model agreement on rain amounts today… we feel more confident on a widespread 1-2″ rainfall by Sunday 4pm.
Also take note that Sunday will be significantly cooler than Saturday. Temperatures will be 20-25 degrees colder, and in the 60-70 degree range, behind the passage of cold front. Sunday also features plenty of clouds, showery times and breezy northeast wind of 10-20mph.
We’ll dry out early next week and eventually transition back into a summertime pattern late next week that features highs in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday-Friday. Have a great weekend please check back for rain timing, coverage and amount updates – Sean Ash
What a pleasantly warm day across Central Indiana. As expected high temperatures climbed into the mid-80s under hazy sun with only scattered clouds. In the blog Wednesday we mentioned the possibility of isolated showers developing along a washed-out boundary in southern Indiana… and indeed there are very isolated showers noted on the latest radar scans. However, 90% of the viewing area remains dry and pleasant.
Dewpoints dropped into the 50s to offer brief relief from a humid Muggy Meter. Humidity levels climb the next 24 hours and contribute to isolated storm chances Friday afternoon.
Between now and then we’ll enjoy a very pleasant evening! Don’t forget the Indianapolis Indians begin their seven game home stand this evening at Victory Field against the Toledo Mudhens. Temperatures will remain in the 80s for the first pitch at 7:05pm and only fall into the mid/upper 70s by the 7th inning stretch.
We expect only a few clouds overnight into Friday morning… with somewhat warmer lows in the mid to upper 60s tonight. You don’t need to cancel any outdoor plans tomorrow, but you’ll need to monitor radar later in the day. Isolated showers or storms are fair game by 5pm. They’ll be primarily sun-driven and will diminish after sunset Friday evening.
Saturday begins dry but rather humid. Showers and storms increase Saturday afternoon as a cold front moves into the state. Highs climb into the low and mid 80s prior to the storms… some of which may become severe. Expect much cooler conditions to finish the weekend as we’ll be north of a cold front. Under mainly cloudy conditions, and with a breezy northeast wind, temperatures will be in the 60s.
We have low confidence on the precipitation forecast Sunday as there’s uncertainty on where the boundary will set up. For now we’ll mention the chance of showers, but this could change drastically either way by then. Have a good evening – Sean Ash
Spotty showers and locally heavy storms remain possible until the passage of a weak cool front later this evening. While organized severe isn’t anticipated…a few storms will produce gusty wind and small hail. Downpours and lightning are likely in any storms that do develop.
At 4pm radar shows a narrow, but heavy line of storms west of Indianapolis… with isolated cells developing in advance of this line. This will move easterly across the northern half of the state between now and 9pm. It’s possible for some southward development to occur in time which would put the Indy metro area in play prior to sunset.
Any storms quickly diminish before midnight with areas of dense fog developing prior to the Thursday morning rush hour. Some areas may have visibility less than a mile and could impact your commute. Otherwise we’re expecting a warm, humid day tomorrow with highs in the mid-80s tomorrow. Isolated showers and storms are possible in southern Indiana where the aforementioned front stalls.
Higher storm chances return to Central Indiana Friday evening into Saturday. Some of these storms could be strong to severe… but downpours and lightning again appear to be the main threats. Saturday is easily the warmest and stormiest day of the weekend at this point.
North side of a front will be significantly cooler and less humid Sunday… with highs in the 65 to near 70 degree range. It appears this cool down will be short in nature and long range indicators suggest a summer time pattern next week. Stay weather aware early this evening – Sean Ash
What a day and what a race! We won’t spoil the finish for you but it’s equally as great as our weather this weekend. Sunshine and mid-80s to finish our Sunday and there is still plenty of time to enjoy the weather this evening.
Rain and thunder chances ramp up some on Memorial Day… though it should be noted there will be dry time to enjoy barbecues and pools. Spotty showers are possible as early as 3-4am, but will be more likely late morning into early afternoon. It’s conceivable much of the precipitation will be out of the state by 5-6pm to allow for a nice evening tomorrow. Please check the radar and download our free app if you have outdoor plans.
Expect humid highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s with not much drop during the night due to increased humidity.
An upper level storm system provides greater wind energy to support a low end risk of strong to severe storms on Tuesday. With or without severe weather we’ll have to endure heavy storms until the upper low drifts east of the state mid-week.
Temperatures will be a good 10 degrees warmer than normal until next weekend. Have a great evening and please take some time to remember what Monday is all about – Sean Ash