Update On Severe Potential Tonight

This afternoon is as good as it gets in Central Indiana.  Sunshine, 60s and 70s with a light breeze.  Hopefully you’re reading this blog outside somewhere.

While we’re definitely enjoying pleasant conditions, we’re also mindful of the potential of severe weather overnight.

HAIL OHV

Admittedly the probabilities are significantly lower than areas west of Indiana, and for good reason.  That’s where the highest levels of wind shear, instability and lift will be maximized and why there’s an elevated risk for severe storms.

HAIL PROB

I want to reiterate that we don’t envision widespread storms… in fact it’s more than likely to be rather isolated.  However, there will be enough wind shear and lingering instability to support a non-zero tornado and hail threat… primarily northwest of the Indianapolis metro area and closer to the lift provided by strengthening low pressure in northern Illinois.  This deserves your attention until we can give the all clear tonight.

THREAT LEVELS LEVEL DEF

Nonetheless it only takes one supercell sometimes and high resolution modeled radar continues to suggest that as a possibility.  Please note this is not exactly how the radar will look at a specific time or in these exact locations.  We merely use this as a tool for an area to monitor and within a general time.

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There should definitely be plenty of dynamics to sustain a storm, but it will be fighting against a stabilizing atmosphere at the same time.  At this point we’ll monitor radar trends in Illinois and provide updates as needed.

Any severe threat should be over rather quickly tonight as the risk shifts north and east by 2-3am.  While only a few areas may have a storm tonight, we’ll all be impacted by a strong gradient wind field packed around the storm center in Wisconsin.

WIND ADVISORY WIND GUST FORECAST WIND GUST FORECAST 2

We’re still expecting a pleasant St. Patrick’s Day in Indianapolis though the breeze may linger.  After a bright start Thursday expect fair weather cumulus to build in the afternoon with sprinkles possible.

ST PATS

Much cooler air arrives for the weekend with highs in the 40s.  Stay safe and please check back for updates – Sean Ash

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Foggy For Some And Update On Tuesday Storm Potential

Not a shabby Sunday afternoon with some peeks of sunshine across central and southern Indiana.  There’s a humid feel to the air with dew points in the 60s too.  Humid air, daytime heating, and a weak low pressure area will be enough to warrant the mention scattered showers and thunder this evening.

TEMPS FOG

The bigger story overnight will be areas of dense fog and mist.  This may be enough to reach advisory criteria and slow down the morning commute.

PLANNER MONDAY MONDAY 10AM

Another wave in the atmosphere increases rain and thunder by midday but doesn’t keep temperatures from reaching the 60s again.

MONDAY 5PM PLANNER MONDAY AFTERNOON TUESDAY MORNING

More fog and mist build Monday night into Tuesday morning.  This may ultimately prove key in slowing down the development of potentially widely scattered, but strong, storms Tuesday afternoon and evening.

TUESDAY AFTENROON OHV 1 OHV 2

While we don’t envision widespread storms… anything that develops later Tuesday may reach severe levels due to a strong wind field overlapping building instability.

SPC

48 hours away we have low confidence on the severe threat due to high uncertainty on timing and location of the best wind shear/instability overlap.  Please check back for updates.  Much higher confidence on the pattern change of below normal air to arrive by next weekend.

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Admittedly I’m being conservative on long-range temperatures.  Please note we could have several days with highs in the 40s – Sean Ash

Update On Our Wet Day

Central Indiana is in the cross hairs of a long stream of tropical moisture.  The resulting “rain train” makes for a washout of a day today and areas of downpours this afternoon.

RAIN POTENTIAL

Once again it appears the heaviest amounts fall along and especially south of the I-70 corridor…. where an additional 1″ to 1.5″ is likely.  But this truly pales in comparison to the devastating flooding underway in the southern Mississippi River Valley.

RAIN ESTIMATES

Radar rainfall estimates and spotter verification indicate 12″-17″+ amounts in northwestern Louisiana where the worst of the flooding is occurring.

RAIN ESTIMATES 2 PLANNER

Rain locally ends from north to south this evening and you’ll notice temperatures dropping as the rain departs.  This is due to the passage of front that’s currently dividing April-like warmth to the south and more typical early March air to the north.

TEMPS 1PM TODAY 6PM 10PM LOWS TONIGHT

Despite the seasonably cold start tomorrow, Friday will be a pleasant day with a brighter sky and highs in the 60s.

FRIDAY TOMORROW

Rain and thunderstorms return Saturday, but we don’t envision a washout.  We’re still targeting Sunday as the wettest day of the weekend.  Highs early next week reach near record warm levels before a pattern shift to below normal air sets up around March 19-20th.

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Wet Next 24 Hours

Showers over Central Indiana this afternoon and evening, but it appears now the heavier rains look to target the southern half of the state and not north.  Either way all the region gets wet the next 24 hours.

TEMPS

MODEL RAIN RAIN RPM RAIN GFS

Expect rain rates to ramp up overnight into Thursday with 1″ to possibly 3″ falling from the Indy metro area to the Ohio River.  Areas of flooding are possible but it seems unlikely that flash flood guidance will be met during this time.  We’ll monitor for updates.

7PM 4AM 12AM PLANNER TONIGHT

Expect a rainy day tomorrow with downpours at times and possibly some thunder.  Temperatures will be cooler, but still well above normal, in the upper 50s and lower 60s.  Rain ends from north to south Thursday evening as much colder, drier air filters in from the north.

PLANNER THURSDAY THUR 3PM THUR 7PM

You’ll notice the chillier air Friday morning when lows drop into the 30s and lower 40s.  But Friday looks like a real nice day with a brighter sky and pleasant highs in the 60s.

FRI 7AM FRI 4PM SAT 7AM BIG 10

Scattered rain/thunder chances return Saturday but we’re still advertising Sunday as the wettest day this weekend.  Though this week is warmer than normal… the warmest may be yet to come.

JET

Strong signals indicate near-record warmth the first half of next week.  Stay tuned as highs may make a run at 80 degrees?! – Sean Ash

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What A Day!

Welcome to the warmest day of 2016 so far!  Highs in the lower to mid-70s mark the Indianapolis’ warmest day in some four months.  In fact this is the earliest the city has registered 74 degrees since 2009.  While we didn’t hit the daily record high of 80… temperatures finished 25 degrees above normal for early March.

HEADLINES

Perhaps the only complaint is a moderate to high pollen count.  According to pollen.com it’s mainly juniper that’s causing problems.  We’ll get a break tomorrow with the arrival of rain.

Speaking of… we’re still on target for a wide swath of 1″+ rainfall in Central Indiana by Friday morning.  The bulk of this falls Wednesday night to Thursday afternoon.

POLLEN MODEL RAIN

Another impressively mild night in the mid to upper 50s awaits.  After a perfect evening, we await the arrival of showers just in time for the Wednesday morning commute.  While we don’t expect a wash-out tomorrow… it will certainly not be as bright or dry as today.

6AM PLANNER MORNING 4PM PLANNER AFTERNOON

Showers early in the day should give way for dry time in the afternoon.  We’re forecast 71 for Indy which would be just shy of the daily record of 72 set in 1878.  Any breaks in the clouds tomorrow and we’ll likely hit it.  But if clouds hang tough highs only reach the mid and upper 60s which is still respectably warm.

HIGH TOMORROW THURSDAY 12AM

Another surge of rain, possibly heavy, arrives Wednesday night into the Thursday.  Thursday should be rather rainy and latest data suggest much of the region receives at least an inch of rainfall by Friday morning.

THURSDAY 6AM THURSDAY 11AM RAIN POTENTIAL

At this time it appears the rain and a cool front settle south of the area Friday.  This would pave the way for a colder start in the 30s and 40s, but with ample sunshine highs would return to the 60-65 degree range Friday afternoon.

FRIDAY MORNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON

Sunday looks wet right now but the pattern stays warmer than normal until around the 19th or 20th of the month.  Have a good evening – Sean Ash

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Feeling Like Late April-Early May

Let the warm up begin!  As expected showers departed this afternoon after the passage of a warm front.  In response temperatures soared well into the 60s.  This marks the beginning of a multi-day stretch of temperatures 20-25 degrees above normal that likely lasts the next 8-10 days.

TEMPS TEMP BARS

It will be a perfect evening in downtown Indianapolis if you’re heading down to the Pacers game.  It’s WTHR Night at The Fieldhouse and we’re handing umbrellas to the first 3,000 fans.  Hope to see you tonight.

PLANNER PACERS LOWS TONIGHT

“Lows” tonight near in the 50 to 55 degree range will be warmer than the average “high” for this time of year.  With the main axis of rain expected to be west-southwest of Central Indiana both Tuesday and Wednesday we’re forecasting highs in the 70s.  The record high Wednesday (72 set in 1878) might be rivaled as well.

PLANNER TUESDAY HIGHS TOMORROW TUESDAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY MORNING THURSDAY

Though some showers are possible Wednesday, the best rain chances occur Wednesday night into Friday morning.  It’s still not a slam dunk that Central Indiana sees 1-3″ rainfall.  In fact the higher probabilities of for heaviest rain have trended farther west of the Indiana/Illinois state line.  But there’s certainly time for this to change.

EURO RAIN GFS HEADLINES 2 HEADLINES 7DAY

We’re much more confident on the temperatures staying above norm than coverage of rain during the forecast.  Check back for updates – Sean Ash

Showers Monday Mark Arrival Of Warmer Air

Clouds continue to increase over Central Indiana to serve as blanket overnight.  This results in low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s Monday morning.

RADAR MONDAY MORNING

While the early morning commute should be dry, expect showers to arrive by mid to late morning.  Rain won’t last long Monday and we’ll likely see decreasing clouds by late afternoon.

MONDAY 11AM PLANNER MONDAY MORNING

The passage of a warm front and at least a partly sunny sky helps push daytime highs in the mid-60s.  This will be day one of a prolonged mild spell.  Temperature anomalies of 20-25 degrees above normal can be expected into next weekend.

PLANNER MONDAY AFTERNOON MONDAY 5PM PATTERN

The trade-off with the warm up will be increased rain chances.  However there are noticeable differences on exactly where the heaviest banding of precipitation occurs mid-week.  One solution puts Central Indiana in play for 1 to 3 inch rainfall amounts.

EURO RAIN EURO 2 GFS

Another displaces the heaviest axis farther west into the Illinois.  If the latter verifies we’ll likely have multiple days in the 70s.  For now we forecast 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY

Either way… each day will be considerably warmer than normal and just what the doctor ordered if you have a spring fever!  Also an early heads up that Daylight Saving Time begins next Sunday (March 13) at 2am.  We “spring forward” and lose an hour of sleep – Sean Ash

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Warmer And Wetter This Week

A great Sunday evening in progress over Central Indiana.  Despite the increase in clouds, expect dry conditions for outdoor plans.  Clouds and wind keep temperatures from falling much below the mid-40s.

HEADLINES TEMPS

PLANNER EVENING PLANNER MONDAY MORNING

Monday will be cloudy at times with a few showers passing by during midday… but highs still climb into the mid-60s.  This marks the beginning of a long stretch of unseasonably warm days with temperatures nearly 20 degrees above normal.

MONDAY MORNING MONDAY 1PM MONDAY 5PM PLANNER MONDAY AFTERNOON

Expect highs mainly in the 65 to 70 degree range each day this week.  Some days will be warmer or cooler based the amount of cloud cover and rain.  At this time we bracket the time between Wednesday morning and Friday morning for heavy rain potential.

TUESDAY MORNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY

Model guidance continues to suggest one to three inches of rainfall within the heaviest banding.  But it’s to be determined exactly where that feature sets up and the heaviest amounts occur.  Confidence is much higher on above average temperatures lasting into next weekend.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

GFS EURO RAIN 7DAY

 

Locally Dense Fog Tonight

An area of rain mixed with snow currently over Central Indiana should mostly depart by midnight.  We’re already seeing reduced visibility from fog and that plays a big role in the overnight forecast.

TEMPS VISIBILITY 6AM

Patchy slick spots are possible too as temperatures drop below freezing.  So added time to the Friday morning commute will be needed in some locations.

MORNING PLANNER

It will require patience, but after a cloudy start we’ll enjoy a bright finish with highs in the 40s Friday afternoon.  Another weak system brings light rain/snow Saturday with a good deal of cloudiness.

AFTERNOON PLANNER 5PM FRIDAY

Sunday still looks pleasant and bright with highs in the mid-50s.  We’re highly certain the pattern next week produces unseasonably warm air with temperatures 20 degrees above normal.  There’s also a high chance by mid-week with 1 to 3 inch rainfall potential by Thursday night.  Have a safe evening – Sean Ash

7DAY

 

Much Warmer And Wetter Next Week

The forecast played out as expected today.  Areas of snow ranged from a trace to nearly 2″ in some places north of I-70.  That snowfall melted rather quickly today as temperatures climbed well above freezing for most of the afternoon.

SNOW REPORTS

TEMPS

Light snow continues in northern Indiana and may drift southward toward Indy this evening before dissipating.  Any additional accumulation will be light.

9PM 7AM FRIDAY

Areas of fog and mist could reduce visibility overnight into the Friday morning commute.  At the very least thick overcast can be expected for a good chunk of Friday… with some late day sunshine possible.

We’re still advertising another system the first half of Saturday that will bring a rain/snow mix back to Central Indiana.  More light accumulation is possible very early Saturday morning before temperatures climb into the 50s.

MORNING PLANNER AFTERNOON PLANNER 5PM FRIDAY

We’re still advertising another system the first half of Saturday that will bring a rain/snow mix back to Central Indiana.  More light accumulation is possible very early Saturday morning before temperatures climb into the 50s.

SATURDAY SATURDAY 2PM SNOW MAP

Sunday will be the best and brightest day this weekend with a mainly sunny sky and highs in the mid-50s.  Next week will be considerably warmer with temperature anomalies some 20 degrees warmer than normal.  That translates to highs in the mid to upper 60s.

JET STREAM

That translates to highs in the mid to upper 60s.  The trade-off to the warmer southwest flow will be a high chance of rain Wednesday and Thursday.  Some of this rain be heavy with early indications of 1 to possibly 3 inches rainfall amounts.  Stay tuned – Sean Ash

EURO RAIN EURO RAIN OHV

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