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Jul
03

Picture Perfect Holiday Weekend

Posted By · July 3, 2014 at 5:00 pm

We hope you’re enjoying this fall-ish afternoon in central Indiana.  After a few early day sprinkles and showers, you couldn’t ask for a better July afternoon.  Sun and clouds with high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s… a good 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

NOW

Under the center of Canadian high pressure overnight we’re assured of our coolest start to July 4th in some 18 years.  Lows tonight will easily drop into the 50s and the aforementioned high keeps the sky sunny tomorrow with pleasant highs in the mid to upper 70s.

4TH LOWS PLANNER HIGHS

Friday evening will arguably be one of the best weather set ups for fireworks in recent memory.  A clear sky, light wind and comfortable temperatures in the 65 to near 70 degree range.  Enjoy and please be safe tomorrow.

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As nice as our weather is… it couldn’t be worse right now for the Carolina coast.  Hurricane Arthur continues to strengthen and will likely become a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall overnight/early Friday morning between Wilmington and Cape Hatteras.

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Radar and satellite imagery shows a healthy eye wall and numerous squalls coming ashore in the northeast quadrant of Arthur.  One saving grace may be the forward speed over 10mph and should accelerate more tonight.

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The same high pressure system bringing fall-like weather to Indiana eventually pushes Arthur away from the eastern seaboard.

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Here at home the comfortable air mass hangs around for much of the weekend and keeps the sky sunny Saturday and the first part of Sunday.  You’ll likely notice an increase in humidity Sunday afternoon, but we’re expecting rain-free conditions until after midnight Sunday.

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An active weather pattern returns early next week with the potential for heavy storms Monday.  Have a great holiday weekend – Sean Ash

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Jul
02

Refreshing Breeze Brings Coolest Air In Over Two Weeks

Posted By · July 2, 2014 at 6:56 pm

A wind of change continues to blow across central Indiana today behind the first of two cold fronts. Temperatures are nearly 10 degrees cooler and most importantly the Muggy Meter is getting comfortable as dew points fall below 60 degrees.

PLANNER LOWS

The second front arrives this evening with perhaps an isolated shower or sprinkle, but delivers our driest air since June 15th.  You can open the windows and give the A/Cs a break tonight as lows drop into the 50s Thursday morning.

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Clouds and sun will battle for sky supremacy Thursday, and a breezy northwest wind ensures temperatures stay in the low to mid 70s… our coolest day in over two weeks.

HIGHS

Heads up if you or someone know has holiday travel plans to the eastern seaboard for this weekend.  Tropical Storm Arthur continues to strengthen and will likely reach hurricane status this evening.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the South Carolina coast and Hurricane Warnings for the outer banks of North Carolina.  Arthur may be a strong Category One hurricane when it reaches the coast Friday.

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An upper level trough that’s delivering our cool down will ultimately steer Arthur away from the U.S. mainland.

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The core of Canadian high pressure arrives Friday morning and paves the way for a sunny 4th of July.  Expect comfortable lows Friday again in the 50s which will be one of the cooler starts to a 4th in many years.  Highs for the holiday will be pleasant in the 70s.

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Evening conditions will be ideal for fireworks Friday evening, as it will be clear with a light wind and temperatures in the 60s.

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The pleasant air carries over into the weekend, and we’re still expecting mostly sunny days and highs ranging from near 80 Saturday to the mid/upper 80s Sunday.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

7DAY

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While conditions remain damp, and at times stormy south of I-70, the cloud canopy from this feature offered the ideal backdrop for one of our better sunsets in some time.

RADAR

Southern Indiana will remain damp the next few hours with occasional rumbles of thunder.  The dividing line appears the ole I-70 corridor.  Nothing severe this evening, but some rather vivid lightning at times.  As mentioned the combination of the cloud deck, rain and setting sun provided a picturesque scene for many in the Indianapolis metro and north.  From double rainbows to crepuscular rays… it was fantastic.  Thanks for sharing.  Below are some of the fantastic shots (in no particular order) and scroll down for the forecast.  Click to enlarge:

SUNSET_INDIANAPOLIS

SUNSET_FRANKFORT(photo courtesy of Meghan Young / Frankfort)

SUNSET_LIZTON (photo courtesy of Bob D. / Lizton)

RAINBOWSHELBYVILLE(photo courtesy of Renee Theobald / Shelbyville)

SUNSETWESTFIELD(photo courtesy of Amy Simon / Westfield)

SUNSET_RUSHVILLE(photo courtesy of Shannon Cagle / Rush County)

CRAWFORDSVILLE(photo courtesy of Shelle K. / Crawfordsville)

RAINBOWBROWNSBURG (photo courtesy of Eric Teske / Brownsburg)

RAINBOWBROWNSBURG_2 (photo courtesy of Brian Jessen / Brownsburg)

SUNSET_ZIONSVILLE (photo courtesy of Bill McMillan / Zionsville)

RPM

Rain departs by midnight and our forecast focus shifts to the well advertised shot of unseasonably cooler air.  Morning lows Wednesday drop into the 60s with highs struggling to return to the upper 70s for most.

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The combination of cool air and the high July sun angle will create instability showers during peak heating… but on an isolated basis.

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If you like tomorrow the best is yet to come.  Lows drop into the 50s Thursday morning and stretch of sunshine arrives just in time for the 4th of July weekend!

7DAY

Enjoy the break from jungle humidity and soak up the fresh air central Indiana… you’ve earned it.

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As expected it’s been a quiet afternoon thus far for central Indiana… just hot and humid with temperatures in the 80s and heat indices in the 90s.  We will monitor storms in southern Illinois for upstream impact in southern Indiana where damaging wind is possible for cities like Bedford, Seymour and North Vernon that are under a Slight Risk for severe storms.

WATCH SPC

There is Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11pm for the Evansville area, and it’s conceivable this watch is pushed farther east as storms grow.  The greatest wind potential will be along the Ohio River but can’t ruled out for the cities I mentioned above.  After this evening we get ready for refreshing air but patience is still required.

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While severe storms stay well south of Indy, I can’t rule out some of the rain debris sneaking up to the I-70 corridor.  Rain and storm chances quickly diminish after dark when the disturbance passes to the east.

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Lows tonight stay muggy in the upper 60s but you’ll feel the difference tomorrow when highs stay in the 70s!  Cool air aloft and even modest daytime heating will allow isolated afternoon showers to develop…but many stay dry Wednesday.

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Patience will be rewarded tomorrow as dew points finally drop below the line of discomfort which is the 65 degree dew point mark.

DEWPOINT LOWS

Even cooler air hits Thursday morning when lows dip in the 50s!  You’ll be able to open the windows and turn off the A/Cs for a few days.  This is perfect timing for the 4th of July which still looks picture perfect.  Sunny and 70s Friday with a repeat performance Saturday.

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Heat builds Sunday into the early next week.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

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Jul
01

Latest On Severe Weather Potential

Posted By · July 1, 2014 at 12:15 am

The leading edge of strong to severe storms have crossed over the Illinois/Indiana border…producing widespread damage in Lake County with 80mph+ wind gusts.  It appears the strongest wind with this complex will again target the Michiana border.

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Below is a rough estimated time of arrival (time of posting is 12:08am so subject to change) for cities in north-central Indiana.  Please note… it doesn’t mean the line will remain severe when it arrives but merely a gauge of when to expect thunder and lightning and the very least.

TRACK

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been extended farther east and south to include Frankfort, Tipton, Lafayette, Kokomo and Marion until 4am.

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Damaging wind is a possibility, but I believe flooding rain and lightning will be the bigger threats for the viewing area as the storm weakens.

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If the remnants hold together it could get loud in the Indy metro area between 2am and 4am.

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This feature should depart the viewing area by sunrise and then gear up for another warm, humid day Tuesday.  I’m in the weather center with Kelly Greene until Chuck Lofton arrives monitoring the conditions.

 

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Jun
30

Latest On Damaging Wind Potential

Posted By · June 30, 2014 at 4:30 pm

Clouds have quickly thinned after the early day storms, and temperatures are quickly warming into the 80s.  Heat indices will near 90 degrees this afternoon in jungle-like humidity.

RADAR

All eyes remain focused on a damaging wind complex racing across Iowa into Illinois… eventually heading toward north-northwestern Indiana.  This complex has already produced numerous 70mph wind reports and damage as it accelerates to the east-northeast.  It appears the leading edge will near the northwestern corner of the state by9-10pm.  If it can overcome lack of daytime heating and atmospheric “cap” that will be building after dark, it would arrive in the Indy metro after midnight in a weakened state.

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Areas well north-northwest of Indianapolis have the greatest potential of wind damage, and a Tornado Watch may be issued for parts of the viewing area later this evening… though wind damage with downpours and lightning remain the main threats.

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It’s to be determined how far south and east its severe wind will survive the lack of daytime heating.  But we’re urging all viewers to remain weather aware until we can give the all clear.

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Tuesday looks to be a quieter weather day, though still warm and humid.  Widely scattered storms are possible in southeastern Indiana during the afternoon, and some of those could be strong to severe too… with damaging wind and hail as main threats .  But many remain dry Tuesday and lather up the sunscreen and dress in comfortable clothes if you’re heading down to the World Cup block party on Mass Ave in Indianapolis.

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We’re still on target for refreshing air to arrive Thursday morning and pave the way for a very nice 4th of July.  Stay safe this evening – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Jun
29

Hot Start To Week With Pleasant Air Arriving For Holiday

Posted By · June 29, 2014 at 4:31 pm

Our latest round of splash-and-dashers will continue to push east into Ohio and set much of central Indiana up for a relatively dry evening.  Dry in the precipitation sense, but the Muggy Meter remains sky high and oppressive with dew points in the 70s.

EVENING PLANNER LOWS

As a result of the sticky air, air conditioners will continue to work overtime tonight into Monday.  Highs tomorrow will near or go above 90 degrees.  We’ve yet to hit that magical number this season thanks in large part to the wet June and abundant soil moisture that’s lead to high levels of evapotranspiration (humid air heats and cools slower than dry air).

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Much of Monday will be dry, but we’ll need to monitor a complex of severe storms in Illinois late tomorrow for local impact.

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Western and northwestern Indiana (including Lafayette and Peru) are under a Slight Risk for severe weather…primarily for late tomorrow.  But this is highly conditional on how long the aforementioned complex will hold together, and where it will track.  At this point I’m not overly optimistic this feature will have a high impact on the viewing area.

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It should be noted one potential outcome is for this feature to weaken before impacting the viewing area and the convective boundary setting south of the region Tuesday.  This would mean most would miss out on rain and storms.  It’s too early for a high level confidence on any given output though.

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However, we feel confident on a pleasant set up for the 4th of July thanks to a seasonably strong Canadian high pressure system.  You should notice a big difference in the air mass Wednesday, despite warm highs in the 80s.  Thursday and the 4th of July are about as good as it gets for July…with comfortable humidity and highs in the 70s!  The pleasant air should linger into the weekend though the air mass will modify and allow highs to get back into the 80s.

7DAY

Have a nice evening – Sean Ash

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Jun
24

Soggy and Stormy At Times This Afternoon

Posted By · June 24, 2014 at 11:41 am

Keep tabs on the radar the rest of today with flooding rain for some and the potential for localized damaging wind in stronger storms today.

STORMBARS RPM

Areas of heavy rain and strong to possibly severe storms will increase as a disturbance pivots across central Indiana.  Tropical rain rates of 2-3″/hour are likely in heavier cells and total rainfall may exceed 1-2″ for some.  It appears the eastern half of the state has the greatest chance of damaging wind due to more unstable air.

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We’re sweating through another humid day with temperatures in the 70s at midday and lower 80s to finish.  Dew points remain tropical, which makes it the “air you can wear” and helps feed the downpours.

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The atmosphere settles down by 11pm this evening and sets the stage for a quite, but rather humid night.  Areas of dense fog are possible Wednesday morning.  Much of tomorrow will dry and warm.  Highs Wednesday will be back in the mid to upper 80s, with only an isolated chance of a late day shower or storm.

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The updated Skytrak13 seven day forecast shows a daily chance a shower or storm… but there will be more dry than wet hours and the focus shifts to hot air building into the weekend.  Expect upper 80s and lower 90s Saturday and Sunday with heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100.

Have a safe day – Sean Ash

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