We’ve made it through a seasonably chilly morning, and sunshine will do a nice job in helping temperatures recovery this afternoon.
As expected, many cities in the northern viewing area dropped into the 30s this morning.
Webcams across Central Indiana show plenty of blue sky, and notice the “color” starting to pop in Brown County.
Highs today will near 70 in many locations and just a few degrees above the normal high. Tranquil conditions carry into the evening, though added cloud cover tonight should keep temperatures from dropping much below 55 degrees.
FutureTrak13 shows rain returning by Tuesday afternoon… though latest data suggests the bulk of precipitation holds off until after 4pm.
The backside of the rain in the image above marks the passage of a cold front. This front will usher in a legit Autumn chill… with Wednesday afternoon temperatures hovering in the mid 50s!
Upper level troughing over the eastern U.S. later this week ensures this will be a prolonged period of below normal temperatures… likely our coldest spell since mid-April.
I’ve added showers to the Thursday forecast, with an increased confidence of a disturbance rounding the base of the aforementioned trough. Rain chances “may” need to be added to the weekend outlook too. Stay tunded for updates – Sean Ash
Good Monday morning! Expect a chilly start in the upper 30s and lower 40s before the 7:55am sunrise today.
Highs today will be pleasant in the upper 60s to near 70. We’re still targeting the time between Tuesday 12pm and Wednesday 8am for showers and some storms. Though gusty wind will be possible…for now we’re not expecting severe storms.
The rain and storms will mark a transition to much colder air, and below normal highs are likely after tomorrow.
Though the weekend is winding down, the beautiful Autumn weather will hang around for another 36 hours. But you should plan on a seasonably chilly commute Monday morning… with areas away from Indianapolis’ heat island dropping into the 30s.
Plenty of sunshine, and dry air, leads to a 25 to near 30 degree diurnal temperature swing.
Highs Monday climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Very similar conditons can be expected at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego for the Colts game. Don’t forget you can see the game exclusively on WTHR with round the clock coverage beginning early Monday.
Our Southern California-like weather eases heading into Tuesday… our next shot at rain and storms.
Best rain chances will be after noon Tuesday and before 8am Wednesday. The passage of cold front pushes rain east, and opens the gates to colder air for the rest of the week.
In fact long range indicators suggest this will be our coolest stretch of days since mid-April, and our first sub-60 degree high since May 12th looks likely.
This is certainly not earth-shattering or uncommon for mid-October, but is a stark contrast of the mild afternoons we’ve enjoyed. Highs next weekend look to be at least 10 degrees below average. Stay tuned for a timing/amount of rain update for Tuesday. Have a great eveing and thanks for reading the blog – Sean Ash
The stubborn stratus cloud layer, that’s limited sun the past few days, is not as prevalent today. As a result temperatures are warming faster, and already over the average high (70°) for this time of year.
Visible satellite imagery shows partial cloud cover central Indiana.
Isolated rain/storms are possible…and “locally” heavy rain can’t be ruled out due to a juicy atmosphere.
Temperatures will peak in the lower 80s bewteen 3pm-5pm.
A stubborn stratus cloud deck over central Indiana continues to hold its own, but partly sunny conditions are expected by the time most head home from work and school. Below is a one kilometer resolution visible satellite image. I’ve circled South Bend (top), Lafayette (middle), and the Indianapolis metro (bottom) for reference. From satellite you can see a distinct clearing line in north central Indiana… and South Bend is reaping the rewards.
Notice the striking differences between web cam from the various cities.
Under the overcast temperatures have slowly warmed into the lower 70s. Where the best/quickest breaks in the cloud deck occur… highs will near 80 degrees.
Yesterday I offered an analysis of why Sunday could be soggy. Early morning model runs are converging on that idea… as the GFS and Canadian came in with a slower system/cold front.
Nothing set in stone yet, with the upper storm yet to come onshore to be fully sampled by weather balloons. Stay tuned for updates as we get closer to the weekend
The Skytrak13 weather team has been advertising the potential of strong to severe storms on Saturday, as a sharp cold front approaches from the west. That is still a possibility though exact timing and strength remains to be determined. The forecast picture gets more uncertain for the second half of the weekend as computer model solutions diverge a great deal.
***CLICK IMAGES TO ENLARGE***
Above is a four panel image of the GFS (American) model from Saturday 8pm to Monday 8am. This idea would put the aforementioned cold front (and possibly strong storms) in central Indiana Saturday evening, and east of the area by Sunday afternoon… resulting in a chilly, but dry finish to the weekend. Below is the latest output of the trusted European model.
The Euro model continues to come in with a slower arrival time of the front…keeping Saturday unseasonably warm in the 80s and also puts central Indiana in a rain “train” Sunday. We’re not jumping on this idea at the moment, but “if” this output verifies Sunday could be very wet.
Notice the stark contrast in rainfall output between the two models for Indianapolis on SUNDAY… from nothing to over one inch! We just wanted to share part of the forecast process with you and plant the seed of a potential soggy Sunday. It should be noted that both outputs would allow for several dry hours on Saturday. Check back for updates and hope you enjoy the blog – Sean Ash
The stratus cloud layer over central Indiana is slow to break down today, and will keep much of area shy of hitting 80 degrees. However, temperatures will still climb into the middle 70s and mark the warmest start to October in six years.
Areas that see better breaks in the cloud deck will shoot into the upper 70s. Evening temperatures will be pleasant if you like it warmer than normal.
Speaking of… the normal high is 71 for October 1st and drops to 60 degrees by Halloween. Low temperatures the next several nights will be near the average high for early October.
Colder air arrives Sunday and next week will look and feel the part of fall. We’ll have an updated 7 day forecast later this afternoon – Sean Ash
The gloomy start in central Indiana continues to improve, but there remains a large contrast in sky conditions around the region. Notice in the images below it goes from overcast at Purdue University to mostly sunny in Crawfordsville.
Where clouds linger afternoon highs will be a few degrees cooler, but most backyards will climb into the 70s today.
With a relatively moist boundary layer (dewpoints at/above 60 degrees), and a saturated ground from rain Sunday… fog will become an issued again overnight. It’s very possible there could be more school delays Tuesday morning. We’ll monitor the progress of visibilities this evening.
Any fog/stratus layer that develops will dissipate in a similar manner as today. So don’t let gray get you down Tuesday morning, with ample sun to push highs to near 80 degrees.
This is part of warm spell that will send highs into the mid 80s for several days later this week… preceding a potent weather system heading into the weekend.
Exact details/timing are very uncertain this far out… but computer modeling continues to show strong enough atmospheric dynamics that warrants the mention of strong/severe storms some time Friday or Saturday. “If’ the anticipated cold front is slow to arrive then temperatures Saturday will be significantly warmer.
Stay tuned for an updated 7 day forecast later this afternoon after we analyze the latest data sets. Thanks for reading the blog and have a great afternoon – Sean Ash