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Mar
12

7am Radar Update: Transition Zone Entering Northern Indy Suburbs

Posted By · March 12, 2014 at 7:12 am

Radar and surface reports confirm the transition from rain to heavy sleet and snow north of Indianapolis at 7am.  Heavy sleet was reported in Tipton with all snow in Kokomo and Lafayette.

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This transition zone will continue to pivot southeastward as colder air wraps on the backside of strengthening low pressure that’s pushing east of Indianapolis.  Precipitation rates and coverage will diminish as a “dry slot” temporarily works into Central Indiana.  But the “wrap around snow” across Illinois will arrive by 9am and be responsible for the majority of snow accumulation for the I-70 corridor… which will pale in comparison to significantly heavier snowfall in northern Indiana.

RADAR_3 TEMPERATURES

Quite a cold front is evident across the region, with lower 60s in southeast Indiana contrasted by lower 30s in northwest Indiana.

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Snow picks across the Indy metro between 9am-10am though this burst will brief in nature, it should be enough to drop a 1-3″ around the Indy metro with 3-6″ totals expected as far south as northern Boone/Hamilton counties to Lafayette-Tipton-Muncie.

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Snow will taper to flurries after midday but the strong wind continues well into the afternoon.

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Mar
12

Windy, Wintry Wednesday On Tap

Posted By · March 12, 2014 at 5:32 am

Quite a weather day ahead for Central Indiana.  As anticipated it’s been a very wet start this morning with many areas picking up a half inch to nearly an inch of rain overnight.  Rain has already changed to snow in northwest Indiana…where we’re expecting the heaviest snow totals of 3-6″ in our viewing area to occur along a Lafayette-Tipton-Kokomo line.

RADAR.

This transition zone will gradually work toward the Indy metro between 7-9am, but snow amounts will be much lower in a 1-3″ range.  It should be noted there will be a sharp northwest to southeast snowfall gradient.

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Roads will be wet this morning with rain and temperatures in the upper 30s.  A wind-whipped snow moves across the metro area between 8am-12pm as colder air pivots in from the northwest.

PLANNER

This is NOT a big snow-maker for the Indy metro area, and many locations likely see an inch or less along the I-70 corridor due to significant melting on contact.  But areas north and northwest of the city, where it snows longer and harder, amounts will exceed 3″ and possible up to 8″ for the Toll Road and into southeast Michigan.  We’re advising that significant airport delays are likely in Chicago, Detroit and Cleveland… with residual impacts to Indy International.  Call ahead this morning if you have a flight.

SNOWMAP SNOWMAP_2 WARNINGS

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for areas along and north of I-70, with Winter Storm Warnings in northern Indiana.  While snow amounts will greatly vary from north to south, everyone must deal with the wind of this strengthening low pressure system.  Expect a sustained wind of 25-30mph and gusts nearing 40-45mph at times today…with a Wind Advisory for most of the area until 4pm.

WARNINGS_2

That wind combined with falling temperatures produces wind chills nearing zero by 11pm this evening.  That will be a “feels like” difference of nearly 70 degrees when compared to the unseasonably warm afternoon of Tuesday.  What a shock to the system.

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Thursday will be unseasonably cold with lows in the single digits and highs struggling to hit 30.  But we’re still expecting a quick recovery into the mid/upper 50s Friday into Saturday.  Long-range computer models vary on a weekend solution regarding potential precipitation.  For now it’s only a “chance” for Sunday, but we’re watching for heavier potential.  More ups and downs with an active pattern continuing next week.  Check back frequently for radar updates on the blog this morning.  Have a great day – Sean Ash

7DAY

 

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Mar
11

Spring Warmth To Winter Chill Next 24 Hours

Posted By · March 11, 2014 at 2:56 pm

Don’t let the near 70 degree warmth fool you.  Winter weather is just hours from returning to Central Indiana.  While we haven’t made much change to our forecast from earlier, Winter Weather Advisories have been added to include Indianapolis from 4am to 4pm.  Winter Storm Warnings are up for Hartford City, Marion, Peru, Monticello and Fowler where snowfall totals will be higher (see the snowfall potential map below).

WARNINGS

We hope you’re enjoying the taste of spring in Central Indiana.  Highs will settle into the lower and middle 60s between 4-5pm, with hazy sunshine and a pleasant southwest wind.

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The shelf life of the balmy air expires early Wednesday morning as a potent storm system treks across the I-70 corridor.  Rain spreads into the area mainly after midnight and becomes locally heavy with thunder by 2-3am.  Rain amounts may approach a half inch to just under an inch in spots.

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The changeover to snow occurs first in northwest Indiana and gradually spreads east-southeast… with an expected rain-to-snow switch between 7am-9am in the Indy metro.  Snow will come down at a good clip for a few hours, but will it be heavy enough to overcome two days in the 60s and a wet surface from overnight rain?  Those factors and the brief duration in the moderate/heavy snow band likely save many from shoveling a ton along the I-70 corridor.

RPM_5 RPM_6 WEDNESDAY SNOW_ZONE

So for now there are no major changes to our snowfall potential ideas.  This is not a big snow-maker for the city, with 1-3″ possible along the I-70 corridor.  Amounts will ramp up north of the city where the changeover occurs sooner and snow lasts longer.  3-6″ amounts are expected along and north of a Fowler-Lafayette-Kokomo-Tipton-Muncie line.

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Due to heavy snow in Chicago and Detroit air travelers should expect significant delays and/or cancellations tomorrow.  Not a great travel day in the Great Lakes with dangerous road conditions developing by midday across the northern third of Indiana.  Significant blowing snow will drastically lower visibility, and near-blizzard conditions are possible around Chicagoland tomorrow.

HEADLINES

Ultimately I believe the wind and drastic 24-hour temperature drop are the most notable aspects of this storm for much of the Indy metro.  By 4-5pm Wednesday wind chills nearing single digits and then nearing zero by 11pm tomorrow… marking a ridiculous 65 to 70 degree “feels like” drop in some 24 hours!  Sustained wind of 20-30mph and gusts of 40mph can be expected well into Wednesday afternoon.

WINDCHILL WINDCHILL2 7DAY

This cold air intrusion bottoms-out with single digit low temperatures Thursday morning, with Indianapolis’ record low of 3 above not far off.  After a chilly Thursday afternoon below freezing, temperatures should modify quickly Friday as a brisk southwest wind develops.  Next chance of precipitation will be rain shower chances late Friday night into Saturday morning.

Also don’t forget to sign up for the Skytrak 13 Personal Forecast and get daily updates sent to your email.  This is a great way to stay ahead of the weather and alerted to changes to that frequently occur to the forecast… plus it’s free.  Sign up here: http://www.wthr.com/category/277881/daily-weather

Have a great day and please check back for updates – Sean Ash

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Mar
10

Spring Warmth To Winter Chill Next 48 Hours

Posted By · March 10, 2014 at 1:28 pm

Early day cloud cover is now thinning over Central Indiana and the brighter sky and southwest wind result in temperatures nearly 20 degrees warmer than Sunday.

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Expect a rapid rise with highs occurring later in the day due to Daylight Saving.  Lower 60s expected for the Indianapolis metro between 4-5pm, and areas in southern Indiana make a charge into the mid-60s today.

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Quiet weather rules the next 24 hours with another unseasonably warm day on tap Tuesday.  Afternoon highs tomorrow charge back into the 60s for a majority of the viewing area, and southern Indiana flirts with 70 degrees!  But this is warm up is definitely Fool’s Gold, as a well advertised storm system arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday with a winter punch.

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We continue to keep tabs on a winter weather system that takes aim on the I-70 corridor and points Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Precipitation begins as rain and may become heavy after 12am Wednesday with rumbles of thunder.

By 7am Wednesday rain changes to mostly snow, with heaviest totals of 2-4″+ expected to fall north of the Indianapolis metro.  There is medium to high forecaster confidence that cities like Lafayette, Kokomo, Muncie, Marion and Peru fall within this zone.  Our call the I-70 corridor is 1-2″ with a disclaimer of low forecaster confidence due to uncertainty on how quick the changeover occurs and length of time in snow.

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Wind and falling temperatures will likely be the bigger story for areas along and south of I-70, with afternoon temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s… a good 30 degrees colder than Tuesday!

7DAY

This cold punch hangs around into Thursday afternoon before another surge into the 50s returns Friday.  Don’t forget to sign up for the Skytrak 13 Personal Forecast and get daily updates sent to your email.  This is a great way to stay ahead of the weather and alerted to changes to that frequently occur to the forecast… plus it’s free.  Sign up here: http://www.wthr.com/category/277881/daily-weather

Have a great afternoon and thanks for signing up for the Skytrak13 Personal Forecast – Sean Ash

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Mar
09

From 60s To Snow This Week

Posted By · March 9, 2014 at 6:11 pm

Cooler than average today, but sunshine is always a welcomed sight on Sunday.  Afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 40s will be slow to cool due to a steady southwesterly wind.

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Highs on Monday will rival the warmest of the year… which is 62 degrees for Indianapolis on February 20th.  Regardless, Monday will be truly be a treat after the coldest winter since the late 70s.

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Expect a repeat performance with the taste of spring on Tuesday.  In fact highs in southern Indiana may flirt with 70 degrees, while much of the I-70 corridor climbs into the 60s.  This warm up precedes a winter weather system Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Though uncertainty on track, strength, and speed exists… there is medium to high confidence of a “shovelable” snow north of I-70.  At this point I have medium to low confidence for Indianapolis and points southward for seeing 1 to 2″.

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Precipitation begins as rain and arrives by 12am Wednesday.  Between 12am and 6am rain will change to snow from northwest to southeast as the colder air funnels rides a strengthening wind field.  The timing of the changeover is one of several factors in accumulation potential.

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Areas north and northeast of Indianapolis have the greatest potential to see amounts over 2″.  Remember this is an “initial” forecast that is highly subject to change being 48 hours away from impact.  Back-to-back days in the 60s, timing of changeover from rain to snow, and speed of this system could lower totals.  So we advise to check this blog (which is updated multiple times daily) for possible changes to amounts and timing.

7DAY

Windy, raw conditions ensue Wednesday afternoon as the low pressure system deepens to our east, resulting in blowing snow over much of Central Indiana.  A steady diet of strong northwesterly wind pushes temps into the 20s Wednesday afternoon, low teens Thursday morning and keeps highs near freezing Thursday.  Thankfully this is spring and readings quickly rebound to near 50 Friday as the air mass quickly modifies.  Have a great evening and thanks for reading the blog – Sean Ash

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Mar
02

Snow Lingers South Tonight & Slick Roads For Morning Commute

Posted By · March 2, 2014 at 9:50 pm

A Winter Storm Warning continues south of I-70 until 7am.  Steady light to occasionally moderate snow will continue falling over southern Indiana the next few hours, before dropping south of the Ohio River by 7am.   Expect slick roads overnight even where it’s stopped snowing many hours ago.  This is due to temperatures well below freezing and lows drop into the single digits Monday morning.

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A steady north-northeast wind will push wind chills into the -10 to -20 range.  Temperatures Monday will be a good 20 to 25 below normal, with highs struggling to hit 20 degrees in many backyards.

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We’ll drop back down into the single digits Tuesday morning and stay unseasonably cold until a gradual climb into the 40s later this week.

RPM_2 SNOW_REPORTS

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out snowfall totals fell well short of our “initial” forecast of 6-10″ for the I-70 corridor.  Adjustments were made in subsequent forecasts to take into consideration a more southern solution in storm track and colder/drier air farther south too.  But even the last call this morning of 3-6″ fell short of the mark.  This essentially proved to be a 2″ to 4″ forecast with an “official” total of 2.4″ at the National Weather Service in Indianapolis… a record this date.

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That pushes the “snow year” total to 54.7″ and just 3.6″ shy of breaking the record of 1981-82.

SNOWIEST_SEASON 7day

No major storms are in the 7 day forecast, but there is a chance of a wintry mix returning Sunday.

Have a great week – Sean Ash

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Mar
02

Second Wave Of Wintry Mix Arriving

Posted By · March 2, 2014 at 3:19 pm

Radar at 3pm shows the anticipated second wave of moisture moving into Central Indiana… with a primary focus on areas along and south of the I-70 corridor.  Despite the radar image below showing mostly “blue”, there have been reports of sleet and freezing rain in Morgan County.

RADAR

Radar analysis suggests this slug of moisture will be most felt south of Indianapolis, as dry air appears to be winning the war on this second disturbance.

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Though I’ve got Indianapolis in a 1-3″ potential range this evening, it’s conceivable most accumulation will occur south of the city in somewhat better moisture fields.

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The bigger story overnight may prove to be the refreezing of slushy/wet roads as temperatures drop into the single digits by 7am Monday morning.  I’d definitely plan on extra time in the morning and potential school delays too.

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Under cloud cover and a persistent northeast wind, daytime highs Monday will struggle to hit 20 degrees in most backyards throughout Central Indiana.

Lastly let me admit the obvious that this storm didn’t produce as initial forecast.  Though downward adjustments in snow potential were made this morning… this forecast ultimately busted due to higher impact of drier air from a stronger push from Arctic high pressure.  It’s frustrating, it happens and I’m just as upset as some of you.

Ultimately it is a forecast and after some 53 inches this winter it’s impossible to get everyone spot on.  We try our best but it comes with the territory.

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The next few days will be unseasonably cold before air modifies and highs return to the 40s later in the week.  Safe travels this evening and thanks for visiting the blog – Sean Ash

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Deceiving sun over Central Indiana, with temperatures a good 20 to 30 degrees below normal.  Highs will range from the mid-teens up north to the lower 20s south.

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Another Arctic front arrives Thursday morning to reinforce the already bitter cold air in place.  Temperatures will hold nearly steady tonight, but an increasing wind pushes “feels like” temperatures well below zero Thursday morning.  The passage of the Arctic front tomorrow morning will knock temperatures into the single digits even after sunrise…before leveling off in the lower teens Thursday afternoon.

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Strong sustained wind of 25-35mph can be expected with gusts up to 50+mph with the pre-dawn frontal passage… along with the possibility of snow squalls.  The quick coating of snow could make it messy for some morning commuters.

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Adding insult to injury will be brutal wind chills of -10 to -25 for the bus stop and ride into work.  Definitely wake up with Nicole Misencik Thursday morning for the latest as you may need to add some extra time to your ride.

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Medium range computer model guidance continues to support our theory of a high impact Winter Storm this weekend.  Confidence is high there will be a prolonged precipitation event with significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice across the Ohio Valley including Central Indiana.  However track and exact amounts of any given precip-type remain uncertain.  Timing for now looks to be between Saturday night and well into Monday.

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Be aware that this will impact traveling across the region during that time and we’re advising you to check back for updates to the highly changeable forecast this weekend.

7day (1)

Long range guidance suggests record breaking cold is possible next week.  Admittedly my forecast high and low temperatures next Tuesday and Wednesday may be too “warm.”  Winter is not going away anytime soon.  Have a great afternoon – Sean Ash

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