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Jun
27

Dry For Now But Flooding Continues

Posted By · June 27, 2015 at 5:34 pm

Finally Central Indiana of mainly dry conditions, though a few sprinkles or light showers remain possible well northeast of Indianapolis.  Unfortunately many rivers and creeks remain out of their banks due to the excessive rainfall yesterday.

Below is just a sampling of several cities in Central Indiana that neared or eclipsed the average monthly rainfall June in mainly less than 12 hours!  So it’s no surprise to see these viewer photos of extensive flooding from Kokomo, Sharpsville, Pendleton and Marion.

RAIN AMOUNTS KOKOMO KOKOMO 2 TIPTON PENDLETON MARION

Areal Flood Warnings remain up until 10pm for a good portion of the Indy metro area and I-70/74 corridors.  River Flood Warnings are extensive and will remain up until further notice.  Moderate flooding is likely and if you live in a flood prone region we recommend you keep track of river levels the next few days.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS RIVER FLOOD WARNING

 

 
Otherwise we’re experiencing late April/early May weather here in late June with temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s!  Clouds clear overnight and set the stage for a refreshingly cool night in the 50s.  Plenty of sunshine to finish the weekend tomorrow with highs nearing 80 degrees.

LOWS TONIGHT HIGHS TOMORROW RPM SUNDAY 4PM

A quick-moving upper disturbance may spread in a few showers toward sunset…but chances are low at the moment.  Higher rain and thunder chances return Sunday night into Monday and mark the beginning of another unsettled stretch with daily chances of storms.

RPM MONDAY 12AM RPM MONDAY 3AM RPM MONDAY 4PM MONTHLY RAIN

For the month of June Indianapolis has picked up 8.06″ of rain making this the 8th wettest June on record so far and wettest month in over two years.  The wettest June was back in 1875 with 12.21″ of rain.  Computer model guidance has another half-inch to inch on average the next 72 hours… with locally higher amounts in stronger storms very possible.

MODEL RAIN 7DAY

Storm chances may taper heading into July 4th but I caution that the forecast that far out can change drastically.  Check back for updates – Sean Ash

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Jun
26

Flash Flooding Threat Remains High Tonight

Posted By · June 26, 2015 at 10:35 pm

Areas of heavy rain and sporadic rumbles of thunder will continue to spin across Central Indiana as low pressure moves across the Ohio River Valley.  The threat for severe weather is over, but flooding remains likely in heavier downpours that will produce an additional 1-3″ locally.

FLOOD WARNING

At 10pm flash flooding was reported in portions of Delaware, Randolph, Madison, Henry, Hamilton and Tipton counties… with significant flooding occurring Muncie and Cicero.  Please use caution if traveling overnight in theses areas that remain under Flash Flood Warnings until 4:30am.

RPM RAIN POTENTIAL RPM SATURDAY 12AM RPM SATURDAY 8AM

Saturday begins damp with a good deal of cloud cover and lingering showers on the backside of the storm system.  A brisk northerly wind in the 15-25mph range will make it feel more like late April than late June and highs struggle to hit 70 degrees over much of the region… the exception being western Indiana where clouds should break sooner.

RPM SATURDAY 4PM PLANNER TOMORROW PLANNER INDIANS

Clouds clear area wide Saturday night and temperatures drop comfortably into the 50s by Sunday morning.  The cool start sets the stage for the best day of the Skytrak13 seven day forecast with sunshine and highs in the upper 70s.

RPM SUNDAY 6AM PLANNER SUNDAY

RPM SUNDAY 4PM

7DAY

We’re back to shower and storm chances Sunday night into Monday as a disturbance races down from the north-northwest.  This is part of an upper level pattern change that find the Ohio Valley in troughiness in the jet stream.  Expect a daily chance of rain and storms all of next week as the city makes a run at the one of the wetter Junes on record – Sean Ash

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Jun
26

Flash Flood Warnings For Indy Metro Area

Posted By · June 26, 2015 at 2:04 pm

Several bands of extremely heavy rain continue to pivot across Central Indiana… producing torrential rainfall rates of 1-3″ per hour.  This will result in flash flooding over a good portion of the WTHR viewing area.  Many counties, including Marion, are already in Flash Flood Warnings and additionally heavy rain is likely tonight heading into Saturday morning.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING RADAR ESTIMATES HRRR 4PM

HRRR 7PM HRRR 9PM

There’s also a risk for severe storms… including a 5% probability of tornadoes for areas south of I-70.  This would primarily be along and south of Bloomington to Columbus to Greensburg line.  Stay weather aware and expect additional watches and warnings to be issued the next several hours.

SPC DAY 1

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Jun
25

Soggy Set Up To Start The Weekend

Posted By · June 25, 2015 at 7:57 pm

A few splash and dash showers are possible this evening… but much of the central part of the state remains dry.  We’ll monitor the southwestern corner of the state closely as storms in southern Illinois continue to increase and spread southeastward.  Sullivan, Greene and Lawrence counties are under a Severe T’Storm Watch until 1am.

WATCH WATCH 2 HRRR 10PM HRRR 1AM HRRR 8AM

Additional scattered heavy showers and storms are possible going into Friday morning.  We also anticipate more dry hours tomorrow before a low pressure begins to intensify along the Ohio River.  As this happens rain and storms will increase across Central Indiana… becoming widespread by sunset and dropping locally heavy rain amounts.


 

PLANNER FRIDAY RPM FRIDAY 5PM RPM FRIDAY 7PM

Friday night into Saturday morning will be wet and breezy as this system continues to intensify heading into Ohio.  A stiff northeasterly wind wrapping as the center of the low will make for blustery conditions Saturday morning.  Latest model trends are for a slower departure of this system and I’m leaning toward a wetter solution overall to Saturday.

RPM FRIDAY 11PM RPM SATURDAY 5AM RPM SATURDAY 8AM RPM SATURDAY 4PM RPM RAIN MODEL RAIN

We’re still targeting Sunday as the best day of the 7 day forecast… but it also includes an chance of rain heading toward sunset.  Stay weather aware the next 24-36 hours – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Jun
25

Wettest Month In A Year And More Rain On The Way

Posted By · June 25, 2015 at 4:55 pm

You don’t need me to tell you that’s it’s been a wet June thus far.  In fact, the early morning rainfall from heavy storms pushed Indianapolis’ monthly rainfall above 6″.  This is more than 2″ above the June monthly average and marks the wettest month in the city since last June when just over 7″ fell.

RAIN AMOUNTS JUNE STATS MODEL RAIN HEADLINES

 


Even higher totals occurred last night in west central Indiana where 3″+ dropped in parts of Vermillion, Parke and Putnam counties.  At this point we only widely scattered showers and storms this evening, but are monitoring conditions in southwestern Illinois/northern Missouri for storm initiation.  These storms would more likely have a higher impact on the southern half of Indiana and possibly produce some locally severe wind within the yellow shaded zone of the severe weather risk map.

VIS 1KM SPC DAY 1 HRRR 12AM HRRR 4AM PLANNER FRIDAY

Low pressure strengthening across the Ohio Valley Friday promises to deliver a rather wet and stormy stretch heading into the weekend.  Showers and locally heavy storms increase during the day tomorrow.  Much like this evening, cities in far southern Indiana stand the highest chance of severe storms where temperatures will be a bit warmer than the mid-70s over much of the viewing area.

RPM SATURDAY 6AM RPM SATURDAY 5PM PLANNER SATURDAY

We’ll be on the backside of this system early Saturday, but still under its damp and breezy influence.  A stiff northeasterly wind undercutting clouds and rain makes for an unpleasant start to the weekend.  But conditions should improve as the low moves away and this paves the way for the best day of the 7 day forecast on Sunday.  Comfortably cool lows in the 50s are followed by sunshine and 70s to finish the weekend.  By that time we’ll have earned it too!  Check back for updates – Sean Ash

RPM SUNDAY 6AM RPM SUNDAY 11AM PLANNER SUNDAY 7DAY

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Jun
24

Looking Like A Wet And Stormy Start Thursday

Posted By · June 24, 2015 at 9:56 pm

Confidence is growing that a cluster of storms currently over Iowa will blossom into a full-fledged summer time storm complex.  Latest hi-res modeling suggest Central Indiana could be in the cross-hairs of this complex during the Thursday morning commute.

RADAR SPC DAY 1 HRRR 6AM THURSDAY

If current modeling verifies this system would arrive after 4am but linger into late morning… with gusty wind and potentially flooding rainfall in the 1-3″ range for some.  While we don’t envision widespread severe, localized severe wind gusts are certainly very possible depending on it track.

HRRR 8AM THURSDAY HRRR 930AM THURSDAY HEADLINES TONIGHT RISKS PLANNER THURSDAY

Rain and storm coverage should subside by early afternoon.  This system unfortunately complicates the forecast and severe weather set up Thursday afternoon.  It remains to be seen how quickly leftover cloud cover departs and which areas will get a chance to recover in the atmosphere.  At this point I’m leaning toward the highest to warm, destabilize and produce severe storms would be south of I-70.  But this is highly subject to change.  Remember… the longer clouds hang around tomorrow, the less of chance we’ll have for storm redevelopment.

HEADLINES THURSDAY SPC DAY 2 RPM FRIDAY

Another system enters the Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday and delivers another soaking rainfall.  This feature will be intensifying as it curves northeastward… ultimately bringing cloudy, damp, breezy conditions to start our weekend.

Stay tuned for updates and stay weather aware in the morning – Sean Ash

RPM SATURDAY 7DAY

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Jun
24

Heavy Storms Tonight And Thursday

Posted By · June 24, 2015 at 4:34 pm

Though we’ve had some sprinkles and light showers, clouds now have more bark than bite and Central Indiana should remain rain-free until 8-9pm. A wave of rain and thunder coming out of Iowa may cross into the state prior to midnight, but we’re still thinking the main rain and wind event will be much later tonight.

HEADLINES TONIGHT HRRR TODAY 10PM HRRR 12AM THURSDAY HRRR THURSDAY 5AM

We should definitely have some gusty storms, but the risk for severe weather (>=58mph gusts) appears to be low, but areas west of US 31 could have a severe wind gust with stronger storms.  Heavy rain is our main issue with localized flooding and flash flooding possible in areas by the Thursday morning commute.

SPC DAY 1 FLASH FLOOD WATCH HEADLINES THURSDAY

Thursday begins wet and stormy and the residual cloud cover and any lingering rain complicate the afternoon forecast. Despite there being a risk of severe storms tomorrow, there is much uncertainty on the evolution of the early day storm complex.

Areas where clouds linger will be significantly cooler in the 70s, compared any areas of sun that shoot into the upper 80s/lower 90s. For now we’re targeting the region south of I-70 for the best chance of warming up and higher risk of severe storms in the afternoon.

SPC DAY 2 FRIDAY FUTURETRAK

Based on latest model guidance we had to make significant changes to the Friday/Saturday morning forecast… which now includes a much higher chance of rain/storms and possibly heavy rain amounts.

This weekend will be roughly 10 degrees cooler than normal with highs in the mid-70s. Saturday may begin damp for some but should dry out by afternoon as low pressure moves east of the state. Sunday remains the best day this weekend before scattered storm chances return next week.

7DAY

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Jun
23

Great Night But Eyeing Next Wave Of Heavy Storms

Posted By · June 23, 2015 at 4:56 pm

What a difference 24 hours makes!  Courtesy of a refreshing north-northwesterly wind our Muggy Meter continues to drop into the comfortable range as dewpoints gradually fall into the 50s.

TEMPS DEWPOINTS DEWPOINT CHANGE MUGGY METER PLANNER EVENING

This marks the arrival of less humid air that sets Central Indiana up for an awesome evening and much cooler night.

Under a clear sky and light wind temperatures fall into the 50s and lower 60s.  Sky conditions tonight make it possible to see the Northern Lights from a severe geomagnetic storm impacting the Earth’s magnetic field.  More than a dozen states were able to see the lights last night while our sky was cloudy.

PLANNER TONIGHT LOWS TONIGHT PLANNER TOMORROW HIGHS TOMORROW

A comfortable start Wednesday morning with ample sunshine.  Cloud debris from upstream storms will spill into the state as the day wears on, and some late day showers or storms are possible near the Illinois/Indiana border.

We’re on severe storm watch again late Wednesday night into Thursday and Central Indiana has been highlighted for damaging wind potential.  At this time it appears a severe storm complex will develop near Iowa and intensify as it marches eastward.  Be weather aware tomorrow night and during the day Thursday.

SPC WEDNESDAY RPM WEDNESDAY 6AM RPM WEDNESDAY 4PM RPM THURSDAY 2AM RPM THURSDAY 7AM RPM THURSDAY 10AM SPC THURSDAY PATTERN

A cooler than normal pattern looks to establish in the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region late week and into the weekend.  After morning storms Friday we anticipate mainly dry conditions until early next week.

Please check for updates on timing, coverage, and severity of the storm complex – Sean Ash

7DAY

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