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Oct
14

Cool And Damp At Times Next 24 Hours

Posted By · October 14, 2014 at 3:43 pm

Heavy rain, and thankfully not severe weather, is the mark left on central Indiana by an October storm that produced over 300 preliminary storm reports the past 24 hours in the eastern U.S.  We mentioned in this blog several days leading up to the event that the overnight timing and limited instability might lessen the blow for us.  Indeed that was the case.  If this storm arrived earlier during peak heating we likely would’ve had more reports locally.

STORM REPORTS

Rain amounts since midnight have been in the half inch to inch range, with two day totals nearing 2″ in some locations.

RAIN AMOUNTS RADAR

Steady rain is now well east of Indiana, but spotty showers continue to pivot around an upper level storm over central Illinois.  This feature delivers a rather cloudy, damp Wednesday with periods of drizzle and showers.

PLANNER EVENING RPM

Temperatures will not budge tomorrow due to a healthy layer of overcast.  Morning lows slowly drop into the lower 50s and highs only make it back into mid to upper 50s.  Rumbles of thunder can’t be ruled out Wednesday either and small hail is possible in any stronger cells that emerge.

PLANNER WEDNESDAY RPM 2 RPM 3 RPM 4

We’ll be on the back side of the system Thursday and showers become less numerous.  Friday still appears to be the pick of the week with highs jumping into the upper 60s with a breezy south-southwest wind and sunshine.

It’s a one day warm up with a return to cooler air for the weekend.  Highs this weekend drop back into the 50s and lows fall into the 30s Sunday morning.  The pattern next week remains cooler than normal and the coldest air of the season is possible the second half of the week.

7DAY

Have a great evening – Sean Ash

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Oct
13

Heavy Storms Impacting Central Indiana Next Several Hours

Posted By · October 13, 2014 at 8:54 pm

The leading of a line of heavy rain and locally severe wind continues to push northeast into central Indiana.  Heavy rain is likely area wide tonight and locally severe wind or brief tornadoes are possible.

RADAR

Much of the area remains under a Tornado Watch until 1am, including Indianapolis, Muncie, Bloomington and Columbus.  If any spin-ups occur it will be on the leading of the line.  This line will arrive in the Indianapolis metro area around 10-10:30pm.

WATCH RPM 1

Flooding and Flash Flooding are bigger concerns overnight due to torrential rains that may exceed 1″ in some locations.  Use caution while driving tonight and early Tuesday morning.

RPM 2 RPM 3 THREATS

 

Remain weather aware until we can sound the all clear – Sean Ash

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Oct
13

Tornado Watch Issued For Much Of Central Indiana

Posted By · October 13, 2014 at 4:58 pm

A line of strong to locally severe storms continue to move toward Indiana.  Within the past hour the Storm Prediction Center issued a Tornado Watch for the southern half of Indiana, including the Indianapolis metro area.  Tornado and damaging wind probabilities have been ramped up for the western half of the state due to very high directional and speed wind shear in place.

TORNADO WATCH

TORNADO PROBS WIND PROBS THREATS

This puts the possibility of quick spin-ups embedded within the main line in play later this evening.  A few Tornado Warnings are possible before midnight.  We’re still expecting the leading of the line to cross over the Illinois/Indiana border between 7-8pm and race into the metro area before 11pm.  We continue to bracket the hours of 8pm to 2am for the window of severe weather opportunity.  Remain weather aware until we sound the all clear.

HEADLINES RPM HRRR 2 RPM 1 HRRR 3 RPM 2 SPC RPM 3

With the potent upper level storm spinning over Illinois Tuesday, central Indiana will be in the line for lines of storms… some of which could produces locally severe wind and quick spin-ups.  The officially Slight Risk is in southeastern Indiana, but may be pushed farther west tomorrow to include more of the viewing area.

RPM 4 RPM 5 RPM 6 SPC 2

Wednesday and Thursday feature scattered shower and storm chances before cooler air arrives this weekend.  Stay tuned for updates this evening – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Oct
13

Periods Of Heavy Storms Between Now And Tuesday Evening

Posted By · October 13, 2014 at 10:43 am

It’s been a damp start to the week and some areas have already received a half-inch to an inch of rain.  Though it won’t rain all day long, we do anticipate several more bouts of heavy storms between now and Tuesday afternoon.

PLANNER MONDAY THREATS

We continue to bracket the hours of 8pm to 2am for damaging wind potential in central Indiana… though it remains uncertain how far east the squall line will maintain its severe characteristics.  There’s a significantly higher threat of wind damage within the Moderate Risk severe area that stretches from the bootheel of Missouri to Louisiana.  That’s where wind shear and instability will be maximized.

RADAR SPC SPC 2

Locally we believe the area of greatest wind potential will be south-southwest of Indianapolis, but very subject to change.  This is a region that likely catches the coma head of the bowing line before it begins to weaken.  The remainder of the overnight will be dealing with residual heavy rain from the line.  Areas of flooding and flash flooding are possible.

RPM RPM 2 RPM 3 RPM 4

Additional heavy storms are likely by the Tuesday morning commute and severe storms, including quick spin-ups, remain in play tomorrow as well.  The Storm Prediction Center may upgrade the eastern half of Indiana to a Slight Risk Tuesday.  Flooding may be the biggest threat with an additional 1-3″ possible in some areas.  It’s a good idea to clear drains of any leaves to help ease the situation.

RPM 5 RPM 6 RPM 7 RAIN POTENTIAL HEADLINES 7DAY

Unsettled conditions remain in place Wednesday and Thursday as the upper level storm spins around the Ohio Valley.  Widely scattered, to at times numerous, showers and thunderstorms occur Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Stay weather aware and remember to download the WTHR Weather App.

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Oct
12

Heavy Rain And Strong Storms On The Way

Posted By · October 12, 2014 at 4:53 pm

Overall central Indiana enjoyed a decent weekend of weather… though the clouds this evening serve notice of the advertised change early this week.  That change includes a return to the 70s, potential of severe storms and the likelihood of a heavy rain.

PLANNER EVENING RPM RPM 2

Tonight:  More bark than bite in the clouds today with only a few sprinkles or showers expected prior to 10pm.  Due to the overcast and shifting wind to south, temperatures overnight will be considerably warmer than the past few mornings.  Lows will be near 60 at midnight and then rise into the lower and middle 60s for the bus stop and ride into work.

RPM 3 PLANNER MONDAY

Monday:  The warmer wind will help set off scattered showers and rumbles of thunder tonight into the Monday morning commute.  Pack the umbrella as scattered showers and storms are fair game anytime tomorrow.  Despite mostly cloudy conditions and areas of rain, daytime highs tomorrow will climb into the 70s for the first time since October 3rd… and a good 10 degrees above normal.

RPM 4 RPM 5 SPC

A Slight Risk of severe weather remains in place for the western half of the state, including the Indianapolis metro area.  This is primarily for storms late tomorrow evening (most likely after 8pm) and into Tuesday.  Lines of storms may produce severe wind, though it’s unclear if storms will be able to thrive in a stabilizing atmosphere tomorrow night.

THREATS RPM 6 RPM 7 RPM 8

Heavy rain appears likely Tuesday with some locations possibly seeing nearly 3″ of rain by Wednesday morning.  Damaging wind and a slight tornado threat can’t be ruled out Tuesday either, though the risk is highly conditional on the amount of heating we see Tuesday.

RAIN POTENTIAL 7DAY

More scattered showers and storms will circulate around the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Thursday before this system departs.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

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Oct
09

More Showers To Endure Before Sunshine Saturday

Posted By · October 9, 2014 at 4:25 pm

Quite a change over the past 24 hours in central Indiana.  From sunshine and near 70 Wednesday to the expected clouds, showers and raw 50s this afternoon.

SATRAD 24HR CHANGE

This Evening and Tonight:  Showers this evening should be mainly light, but make no mistake there will be a dampness to the feel outside.  This is courtesy to nearly saturated air, clouds and a northeast wind.  As mentioned in the blog Wednesday, it’s fair game at any time for showers between now and Friday evening… though the heavier concentration of rain-banding may set up farther south than today.

EVENING RPM RPM 2

Friday:  Lows Friday morning will be around 50 degrees in Indianapolis, with cooler lows in the lower 40s farther north where the air drys out a bit.  Latest modeling suggests a high chance of showers from Indianapolis to the Ohio River Friday.  Though the rain may not be heavy, it will likely be persistent and accumulate from a .10″ to possibly a .50″ before ending.

PLANNER FRIDAY RPM 3 RPM 4 RPM 5

There should be a trend for the precipitation to end from northwest to southeast during the hours of Operation Football Friday evening.  Pack the umbrella (especially games along and south of I-70/74) and layer up with temperatures in the lower 50s.

OPERATION FOOTBALL

This Weekend:  Saturday looks more and more promising for brighter conditions as high pressure and a northeast wind get a firmer control over Indiana.  This would push clouds and the rain producing boundary south of the Ohio River.  The timing couldn’t be any better if you’re attending the Ball State, Purdue and Notre Dame games this weekend.

RPM 6 RPM 7 BALL STATE NOTRE DAME PURDUE

All three games look mostly sunny and comfortably cool in the upper 50s and lower 60s.  Take the sunglasses and a light jacket for the fourth quarter.

RPM 8

Sunday likely begins dry but scattered showers and storms quickly emerge by Sunday evening… marking the beginning of a wet/stormy stretch early next week.  Though it’s to early to tell if we’ll experience severe storms with a vigorous upper storm, heavy rain seems likely at this point between Monday morning and Tuesday afternoon.

7day

Long range signs hint of a pleasant stretch to follow the wet start next week.  Stay tuned for updates – Sean Ash

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Oct
08

From Sunny To Showers Next 24 Hours

Posted By · October 8, 2014 at 1:15 pm

Central Indiana welcome to the best day of the week, and possibly the best of the next 7 to 10 days.  Severe clear conditions across much of the Ohio Valley will allow temperatures to comfortably settle into the middle and upper 60s.  Just an ideal day for outdoor activities in early October.

TODAY PLANNER EVENING

Tonight and Thursday:  Quiet, comfortable conditions prevail this evening before clouds increase after midnight.  Showers are possible by the time you wake up Thursday morning.  Though it won’t rain all day and everywhere tomorrow, showers are fair game from sunrise to sunset.  Clouds, occasional raindrop and northeast wind lead to much cooler highs in the 50s Thursday.

RPM RPM 4 RPM 3 RPM 2 PLANNER THURSDAY

Unsettled conditions continue into Friday, though there remains some uncertainty on exactly where the heaviest, steadiest rain-banding will set up.  At this point I’m leaning toward a wetter solution for central Indiana Friday… including during the hours of Operation Football.  Though it should be noted there is a wide range in rainfall output from the models we use to construct a forecast.

RAIN 7DAY

Enjoy the sunshine and check back for updates on timing, rain amounts and changes to the weekend forecast – Sean Ash

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Oct
06

Periods Of Spotty Strong Storms Next 36 Hours

Posted By · October 6, 2014 at 4:39 pm

Our latest round of widely scattered showers and heavy storms in central Indiana has a history of pea sized hail.  The next few hours it appears the strongest storms will impact southern Indiana where the greatest instability and wind shear will be maximized.

TEMPS 2 TEMPS

Temperatures have warmed into the mid and upper 60s at the surface… under-cutting an upper disturbance and cold air aloft.  Southern Indiana is being monitored for a potential Watch Box for large hail and locally severe wind gusts.

SPC THREATS

This latest disturbance will quickly depart the state by 8-9pm and set the stage for a quiet, cool night.  Under a clear sky, temperatures should quickly drop into the lower and mid 40s by sunrise Tuesday.

PLANNER EVENING RPM RPM 2

Tuesday will be a near carbon-copy of today that includes showers for the morning commute and scattered strong storms in the afternoon.  “Hailers” will again be possible in the stronger cells tomorrow with highs climbing into the lower and mid 60s.  Storms may linger a bit longer into the evening before departing by Wednesday morning.

RPM 3 PLANNER TUESDA RPM 4 RPM 5

This sets up our “pick of the week” on Wednesday.  We’re expecting mostly sunny conditions from start to finish and pleasant highs int the mid to upper 60s.  We advise you get any outdoor plans done then as we’re back to wet weather on Thursday.

RPM 6 RPM 7 HIGHS WEDNESDAY RPM 8

An easterly wind under clouds, rain and thunder leads to a raw day Thursday with highs struggling to hit 60 degrees.  It’s early, and there is some model timing differences, but we believe this batch of rain departs by kickoff of Operation Football Friday.  Friday night into early Saturday look nice but the active pattern continues early next week with another potent system impacting the Ohio Valley.

HIGHS THURSDAY 7DAY

Stay tuned for updates and a nice evening – Sean Ash

 

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