If you need to shovel out your car or clear sidewalks, we’re recommending sooner than later. Temperatures drop into the low teens by midnight and at or below for many along and north of the I-70 corridor Thursday morning.
Current thinking is for only partial clearing tonight, but if a more prolonged period of a cloud-free conditions develops lows could be much colder due to the fresh snow pack. Either way bus stop conditions for kids will be less than ideal with sub-zero wind chills. Limited sun, deep/fresh snow and Arctic air keep Thursday highs a good 25 to 30 degrees below normal.
Clouds clear by Friday morning and set the stage for a low temperatures well below zero. Much of Friday is bright before our next snow-maker arrives this weekend. Current modeling indicates this will be a relatively light system, with a few inches of snow possible.
We’re monitoring the middle of next closely, as a stalled front (exactly where to be determined) and waves of energy may produce a prolonged period of snow in the Ohio or Tennessee Valleys. There is significant model divergence at this time, so confidence is low on days 6 and 7 in the forecast.
Have a great evening and thanks for reading the blog – Sean Ash
Snow rates over Central Indiana will increase quickly this evening, with one to two inches per hour expected between 5pm and 3am tonight. Road conditions will deteriorate rapidly and accumulations up to 10 inches or more are possible over a large portion of the viewing area.
The high side of the forecast seems likely given latest radar analysis, snow reports, and building atmospheric lift. Don’t be surprised if you hear thunder this evening in heavier snow bands. Even if you don’t see 10 inches of snow…the snow you do see occurs over a short period of time. Many roads will become impassable this evening, and will be flat-out dangerous.
It’s feast or famine for cities like Seymour, Bedford, North Vernon. ”If” you don’t see any mixing of sleet or freezing rain, then you’re staring down the higher snow totals. At this point it’s too tough to call. But there should be a heavy snow burst of 3-6″ this evening before any mixing occurs. We’re still not ruling out significant icing for these areas either.
No huge changes to our initial snowfall forecast ideas, but the Winter Storm Watch for Central Indiana has been replaced by a Warning by the National Weather Service in Indianapolis.
We’re still expecting snow to arrive Tuesday afternoon and be heavy between the hours of 6pm Tuesday and 3am Wednesday…. when snow rates of one to two inches per hour are possible.
This will make road conditions deteriorate very rapidly Tuesday evening. School delays and closures are likely Wednesday due to this storm. Despite the fact we’re 24 hours away from the first flakes, there is still uncertainty on the exact track and how far north the snow/sleet/freezing lines will travel.
For now we’re still anticipating the heaviest snow totals to occur north of I-70, where six to 10 inches looks likely. If Indianapolis remains all snow then focus on the top range of the forecast… meaning seven inches would be most likely. We are concerned about the threat of icing (quarter inch or more) along and south of Bloomington-Columbus-Cincinnati line.
Like with any winter storm this map and forecast are subject to significant changes. Check back Tuesday morning for an update.
Snow will depart by Wednesday afternoon and bitter cold air returns for the later half of the week. We’re already keeping tabs on another potential snow maker for the weekend, and we’ll sort of the details after we get through this first storm. Thanks for reading the blog – Sean Ash
We’re winding down the weekend with cloudy, cold conditions. Temperatures tonight will dip into the teens with wind chills in the single digits to near zero.
The brunt of a winter storm narrowly misses our southern viewing area to the south tonight… but it should be noted that light snow and a 1″ to 2″ accumulation is possible for cities like Bedford, Seymour and North Vernon. Travel along and south of the Ohio River is not recommended overnight-Monday morning due to heavy snow of 4″ to 8″.
Our focus quickly shifts to the much talked about potential winter storm this week. The timeline hasn’t changed… with the bulk of precipitation falling between Tuesday 4pm and Wednesday 7am.
The big fly in the ointment remains storm track, which is certainly not set in stone. The upper storm remains off the coast of California and has yet to be fully sampled by weather balloons. So big changes to our initial snow/sleet/ice zone (and amounts) are fair game. Based on the latest data sets, areas of all snow would receive 6 inches or more. Presently it appears that will most likely occur along/north of I-70.
Too early to tell how far north the sleet zone will travel, which is why I’ve put a four to seven inch spread for areas just south of I-70. Remember that less sleet means more snow.
In a nutshell this a moderate snow event with expected wind in the 10-20mph range. We’ve certainly seen stronger storms, but travel will likely become a challenge Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Areas in southern Indiana (especially south of Bloomington-Columbus) have the greatest chance of seeing more mixed precipitation if not plain rain…and a region we’re most concerned about icing.
I’d love to say this map will remain unchanged between now and Tuesday, but that’s not going to happen. We will reevaluate and massage numbers/locations as needed data arrives.
Please check back several times between now and Tuesday as the forecast will undoubtedly change.
Snow should wrap up Wednesday midday and will be followed by a couple of cold days. An active storm pattern remains in place with chances of snow heading into next weekend. Currently the verdict is out on how strong these systems will be. Thanks for reading the blog – Sean Ash
For the first time in 87 hours temperatures in Central Indiana climbed into the 30s. But a brisk southerly wind made it feel more like the teens. Clouds have had more bark than bite, but a weak cold front may have just enough lift to trigger flurries or some light snow showers later this evening and overnight.
Plenty of clouds around Friday but we’re not expecting much precipitation until Friday night into Saturday morning with the arrival of a warm front. Snow should be the dominant precip-type at onset of this event, and perhaps enough to accumulate quickly along the I-70 corridor. By Saturday morning temperatures should be at/above 32 degrees in the city with freezing rain and/or rain around.
North of I-70 there is much uncertainty on how quickly, and how far north, the above 32 degree air mass will travel. Due to this, we can not rule out icing in cities like Lafayette, Kokomo, Monticello, Peru, Wabash… etc. This also an area that has a better chance of seeing over 2″ of snowfall.
We recommend checking back frequently for changes to the snow zones and overall weekend forecast… as one or two degrees will make a major difference in the ultimate outcome in some backyards.
Rain changes back to a brief shot of snow Saturday night with little accumulation expected at this point. Medium range models continue to show a moisture laden system cutting through the Ohio Valley and Central Indiana next Tuesday and Wednesday. It’s still much too early to discuss specifics regarding amounts, what type of precip and most importantly track… which ultimately dictates the outcome of the aforementioned. Much could change between now and then, but thankfully there’s more than enough to update those changes and keep you on top of what to expect. Thanks for reading the blog – Sean Ash
Sunshine continues to fill the sky over Central Indiana, and we need every bit of it. The coldest temperatures this afternoon remain north of Indianapolis in the deeper/fresher snow pack. Highs from Lafayette, Muncie, Kokomo, Peru, and Muncie will be just a few degrees above zero. Meanwhile temperatures south of I-70 should hit double digits.
Lows tonight will not be as harsh but still demands your attention to detail in regards to preventing exterior wall pipes from bursting. Another round of sunshine is on tap Wednesday and many areas climb above twenty degrees. Clouds increase Thursday with the arrival of a fairly weak upper level disturbance and this may trigger some light snow Thursday. Atmospheric lift may become more sufficient for accumulating snow Friday afternoon and night… and accumulation is possible.
A moisture laden low pressure system arrives this weekend. A quick one to two inches is possible Friday night (especially north of Indy). Model trends are for a warmer solution in Central Indiana Saturday morning into afternoon, which would equate to a changeover to a cold rain. This rain may switch back to a burst of snow Saturday night before exiting Sunday morning.
Medium range guidance continues to advertise a high impact storm in the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley next Tuesday-Wednesday. It’s far off… so no need for specifics, but it’s definitely on our radar (no pun intended). Check back for updates. Thanks for reading the blog – Sean Ash
Deceiving sunshine in Central Indiana today with single digit temperatures and sub-zero wind chills. The coldest is yet to come, with lows tonight ranging from 5 to 15 below and wind chills 20 to 40 below.
It appears the coldest lows will be north of I-70 where there is deeper/fresher snow pack. Indianapolis temperatures are running a few degrees warmer than forecast this afternoon, and may require an adjustment to the overnight low bases on this. Regardless… dangerous conditions expected area wide tonight.
The brutal cold eases mid-week with sunshine and lower 20s Wednesday. We’re already eyeing our next snow potential with a system that has its sights set on the Ohio Valley. It’s much too early to discuss specifics, especially with model disagreement at the moment.
But definitely check back for updates later this week.
Dry air saved Indianapolis from seeing much snow this morning, with 2″ to 4″ for north central Indiana. The latest clipper system will race eastward and allow for some sun breaks later today.
A strong southwest wind will gust over 30mph to cause blowing/drifting snow heading into the afternoon. The warm nose of air also pushes temperatures “briefly” into the upper 30s this afternoon. The warm up is Fool’s Gold, with another Arctic front blasting into Central Indiana late evening…causing snow and snow squalls to erupt before midnight.
The combination of another 1″-2″+ of snow tonight, and temperatures near zero Monday morning, leads to what we believe will be extremely dangerous roads come this time Monday.
Wind chills tomorrow will be in the 25 to 30 below range and drop to 35 to 45 below Tuesday morning. School delays and closures look very likely to start the week.