It’s been a damp start to the week and some areas have already received a half-inch to an inch of rain. Though it won’t rain all day long, we do anticipate several more bouts of heavy storms between now and Tuesday afternoon.
We continue to bracket the hours of 8pm to 2am for damaging wind potential in central Indiana… though it remains uncertain how far east the squall line will maintain its severe characteristics. There’s a significantly higher threat of wind damage within the Moderate Risk severe area that stretches from the bootheel of Missouri to Louisiana. That’s where wind shear and instability will be maximized.
Locally we believe the area of greatest wind potential will be south-southwest of Indianapolis, but very subject to change. This is a region that likely catches the coma head of the bowing line before it begins to weaken. The remainder of the overnight will be dealing with residual heavy rain from the line. Areas of flooding and flash flooding are possible.
Additional heavy storms are likely by the Tuesday morning commute and severe storms, including quick spin-ups, remain in play tomorrow as well. The Storm Prediction Center may upgrade the eastern half of Indiana to a Slight Risk Tuesday. Flooding may be the biggest threat with an additional 1-3″ possible in some areas. It’s a good idea to clear drains of any leaves to help ease the situation.
Unsettled conditions remain in place Wednesday and Thursday as the upper level storm spins around the Ohio Valley. Widely scattered, to at times numerous, showers and thunderstorms occur Wednesday into Thursday morning.
Stay weather aware and remember to download the WTHR Weather App.
Overall central Indiana enjoyed a decent weekend of weather… though the clouds this evening serve notice of the advertised change early this week. That change includes a return to the 70s, potential of severe storms and the likelihood of a heavy rain.
Tonight: More bark than bite in the clouds today with only a few sprinkles or showers expected prior to 10pm. Due to the overcast and shifting wind to south, temperatures overnight will be considerably warmer than the past few mornings. Lows will be near 60 at midnight and then rise into the lower and middle 60s for the bus stop and ride into work.
Monday: The warmer wind will help set off scattered showers and rumbles of thunder tonight into the Monday morning commute. Pack the umbrella as scattered showers and storms are fair game anytime tomorrow. Despite mostly cloudy conditions and areas of rain, daytime highs tomorrow will climb into the 70s for the first time since October 3rd… and a good 10 degrees above normal.
A Slight Risk of severe weather remains in place for the western half of the state, including the Indianapolis metro area. This is primarily for storms late tomorrow evening (most likely after 8pm) and into Tuesday. Lines of storms may produce severe wind, though it’s unclear if storms will be able to thrive in a stabilizing atmosphere tomorrow night.
Heavy rain appears likely Tuesday with some locations possibly seeing nearly 3″ of rain by Wednesday morning. Damaging wind and a slight tornado threat can’t be ruled out Tuesday either, though the risk is highly conditional on the amount of heating we see Tuesday.
More scattered showers and storms will circulate around the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Thursday before this system departs. Have a great evening – Sean Ash
Quite a change over the past 24 hours in central Indiana. From sunshine and near 70 Wednesday to the expected clouds, showers and raw 50s this afternoon.
This Evening and Tonight: Showers this evening should be mainly light, but make no mistake there will be a dampness to the feel outside. This is courtesy to nearly saturated air, clouds and a northeast wind. As mentioned in the blog Wednesday, it’s fair game at any time for showers between now and Friday evening… though the heavier concentration of rain-banding may set up farther south than today.
Friday: Lows Friday morning will be around 50 degrees in Indianapolis, with cooler lows in the lower 40s farther north where the air drys out a bit. Latest modeling suggests a high chance of showers from Indianapolis to the Ohio River Friday. Though the rain may not be heavy, it will likely be persistent and accumulate from a .10″ to possibly a .50″ before ending.
There should be a trend for the precipitation to end from northwest to southeast during the hours of Operation Football Friday evening. Pack the umbrella (especially games along and south of I-70/74) and layer up with temperatures in the lower 50s.
This Weekend: Saturday looks more and more promising for brighter conditions as high pressure and a northeast wind get a firmer control over Indiana. This would push clouds and the rain producing boundary south of the Ohio River. The timing couldn’t be any better if you’re attending the Ball State, Purdue and Notre Dame games this weekend.
All three games look mostly sunny and comfortably cool in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Take the sunglasses and a light jacket for the fourth quarter.
Sunday likely begins dry but scattered showers and storms quickly emerge by Sunday evening… marking the beginning of a wet/stormy stretch early next week. Though it’s to early to tell if we’ll experience severe storms with a vigorous upper storm, heavy rain seems likely at this point between Monday morning and Tuesday afternoon.
Long range signs hint of a pleasant stretch to follow the wet start next week. Stay tuned for updates – Sean Ash
Central Indiana welcome to the best day of the week, and possibly the best of the next 7 to 10 days. Severe clear conditions across much of the Ohio Valley will allow temperatures to comfortably settle into the middle and upper 60s. Just an ideal day for outdoor activities in early October.
Tonight and Thursday: Quiet, comfortable conditions prevail this evening before clouds increase after midnight. Showers are possible by the time you wake up Thursday morning. Though it won’t rain all day and everywhere tomorrow, showers are fair game from sunrise to sunset. Clouds, occasional raindrop and northeast wind lead to much cooler highs in the 50s Thursday.
Unsettled conditions continue into Friday, though there remains some uncertainty on exactly where the heaviest, steadiest rain-banding will set up. At this point I’m leaning toward a wetter solution for central Indiana Friday… including during the hours of Operation Football. Though it should be noted there is a wide range in rainfall output from the models we use to construct a forecast.
Enjoy the sunshine and check back for updates on timing, rain amounts and changes to the weekend forecast – Sean Ash
Our latest round of widely scattered showers and heavy storms in central Indiana has a history of pea sized hail. The next few hours it appears the strongest storms will impact southern Indiana where the greatest instability and wind shear will be maximized.
Temperatures have warmed into the mid and upper 60s at the surface… under-cutting an upper disturbance and cold air aloft. Southern Indiana is being monitored for a potential Watch Box for large hail and locally severe wind gusts.
This latest disturbance will quickly depart the state by 8-9pm and set the stage for a quiet, cool night. Under a clear sky, temperatures should quickly drop into the lower and mid 40s by sunrise Tuesday.
Tuesday will be a near carbon-copy of today that includes showers for the morning commute and scattered strong storms in the afternoon. “Hailers” will again be possible in the stronger cells tomorrow with highs climbing into the lower and mid 60s. Storms may linger a bit longer into the evening before departing by Wednesday morning.
This sets up our “pick of the week” on Wednesday. We’re expecting mostly sunny conditions from start to finish and pleasant highs int the mid to upper 60s. We advise you get any outdoor plans done then as we’re back to wet weather on Thursday.
An easterly wind under clouds, rain and thunder leads to a raw day Thursday with highs struggling to hit 60 degrees. It’s early, and there is some model timing differences, but we believe this batch of rain departs by kickoff of Operation Football Friday. Friday night into early Saturday look nice but the active pattern continues early next week with another potent system impacting the Ohio Valley.
Stay tuned for updates and a nice evening – Sean Ash
A cooler than normal pattern dominates the weather story for a good chunk of the eastern portion of the U.S. Wrapping around a cold core low in southern Canada, and a northwest flow aloft, will be several quick-moving disturbances that provide several chances of showers and storms this week.
This Evening and Overnight: Clouds and spotty showers kept temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than normal today in central Indiana. Thankfully the breeze wasn’t as strong or persistent than Saturday. Showers should diminish this evening as the first of many disturbances pushes east. Clouds may diminish this evening but likely increase again by the Monday morning commute. Lows drop into the lower and mid 40s Monday morning.
Monday: A new batch of scattered showers and storms develop tomorrow, and a few “hailers” are also possible in stronger storms. Highs will be cool in the lower to mid 60s. We’ll be back to dry Monday evening but another round of quick-moving showers and storms arrive by sunrise Tuesday.
This batch quickly exits by Tuesday night and sets us up for one of the better days of the week Wednesday. That’s when the sky will be much brighter and highs make a run at 70 degrees. This is quickly followed by yet another rain-maker Thursday… which looks wet, raw and cool.
That system should depart before the start of this week’s Operation Football and next weekend looks to start dry and sunny. Expect changes between now and then so check back for updates – Sean Ash
Enjoy the summer warmth while you can with an active 36 hours ahead for central Indiana. Scattered storms move into the state early this evening and increase in coverage by midnight.
There remains a Slight Risk for locally severe wind gusts into early Friday morning… but heavy rain may be a bigger concern with Flash Flood potential due to “training” storms. 1-2″ rainfall drops in parts of the area by Friday sunrise.
Friday begins wet and windy with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Steady rain may ease by early afternoon to allow for a gap between the next line of showers and embedded storms that develops along a secondary cold front. Expect sustained wind in the 25-35mph range tomorrow, with higher gusts of 45-50mph possible. Temperatures fall into the 50s by 7pm and into the 40s by 11pm.
The coldest air in nearly six months arrives Saturday morning with lows in the 30s and wind chills at or below freezing. Any morning sunshine quickly gives way to low cloud overcast and makes hitting 50 degrees Saturday afternoon a real struggle in most areas. The record low maximum (49 / 1885) is within reach.
Our first frost of the season is possible Sunday morning if clouds clear enough and the wind diminishes. Regardless lows drop back into the mid-30s and highs remain much colder than normal in the mid-50s. There’s a daily afternoon/early evening shower chance Saturday into Tuesday. Get ready friends… the chill is coming! Be safe this evening – Sean Ash
Another quiet night on tap but we look west for the much advertised changes to our quiet weather pattern. Strong to severe storms will weaken overnight but impact the morning commute, with rain and thunder crossing the Illinois state line by 6am.
Tonight: Lows tonight will be much milder than the past several mornings with readings near 60 degrees when you wake up tomorrow. Storms in the central Plains weaken overnight but some of their leftovers may creep toward Indiana by sunrise, or showers and storms may develop on top of the state as warm air surges northeastward. These will impact the morning commute for some but will be below severe limits. However it’s a good idea to send the kids to school with an umbrella.
Much of the afternoon may dry with highs soaring into the 80s for one more time. More widespread rain and storms arrive Thursday night into Friday morning… with the possibility of locally severe wind in some of the storms. This is part of a potent weather system that’s loaded with wind energy. It’s very possible the Slight Risk area, that only includes western Indiana, may be expanded farther east tomorrow.
Due to limited instability, wind and rain will be the main threats with a highly conditional tornado probability. Regardless it deserves our attention and will impact the entire area with wind and rain… and eventually the coldest air in months.
Our 10 day dry spell ends in a big way the next 60 hours with some areas seeing 1-2″+ rainfall by Saturday sunrise.
Operation Football Friday: Several waves of showers and storms pivot across central Indiana Friday as the center of the storm spins over the eastern Great Lakes. Expect wet, windy conditions for Operation Football and temperatures falling into the 50s by 8pm.
This Weekend: Anyway you slice it… Saturday will be a raw, blustery and uncomfortable day. Morning wind chills near the freezing mark and highs struggle to hit 50 degrees… with the record low maximum (49/1885) within reach. Temperatures this weekend will be a good 25-30 degree colder than last weekend’s balmy 80s.
Layer up if you’re coming downtown to the Circle City Classic Parade. Since you’ll need a heavy coat for Colts tailgating, how about bringing an extra for our Coats For Kids Collection?
Sunday remains unseasonably cold with the chance of afternoon showers. Several upper disturbances will ride the northwest flow aloft to bring daily afternoon shower chances into the middle of next week.
Have a great evening and check back for updates – Sean Ash