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Mar
10

Foggy Night Ahead And Warmest Air Since November In Forecast

Posted By · March 10, 2015 at 4:38 pm

It’s been a damp day in Central Indiana with widespread rain to continue into late afternoon.  Rain amounts for this event range from .10″ to over a half-inch in spots.

WX BUG RAINFALL TEMPS FLOOD WARNINGS

Rainfall combined with the recent snow melt aids in lowland and river flooding.  Several rivers in the region are under Flood Warnings, but at this point only minor flooding is forecast.  Nonetheless know some streets may become water covered in the days ahead.

Rain is beginning to scatter and will diminish from west to east by 7pm.  But clouds, areas of mist and fog continue tonight and into Wednesday morning.  Please note that fog will be dense in some areas and reduce visibility below a half-mile in spots.  We’ll monitor for school delay potential.

TOWER VISIBILITY TONIGHT RPM WEDNESDAY 7AM PLANNER WEDNESDAY

How quickly low cloud overcast and fog diminishes tomorrow dictates how warm daytime highs will be.  We’re forecasting mid to upper 50s, but if the stratus deck holds into the afternoon highs will be significantly cooler in the 40s.  We have higher confidence on upper 50s and lower 60s Thursday under a much brighter sky.

RPM WEDNESDAY 4PM HEADLINES

It’s been nearly five months since we’ve had temperatures at or above 65 degrees.  While Thursday will come close in many places, Monday looks to be the best shot of jumping into the mid and possibly upper 60s.

RPM THURSDAY 7AM RPM THURSDAY 5PM PLANNER THURSDAY

Between now and then another weather system quickly arrives Thursday night and sets the stage for a wet Friday.  Rain amounts with this system will be in the half to three-quarters of an inch range.  Lowland flooding remains possible to likely heading into the weekend.

RPM FRIDAY 10AM

Showers begin Saturday but we expect a pleasant Saturday afternoon with some sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 50s.  Sunday looks bright and in the 50s.  The warmest in the 7 day forecast looks to arrive Monday on a breezy southwest wind… when highs may climb into the middle 60s for the first time since early November!  But in true spring fashion another cool shot arrives next Tuesday for St. Patrick’s Day celebrations.

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Mar
09

Rain Returns Tomorrow

Posted By · March 9, 2015 at 3:22 pm

Some areas in the viewing area continue with the bright sky enjoyed this weekend… with mostly clear conditions and hazy sun across northern Indiana.  The I-70 corridor has a mixed sky this hour and it’s been mainly cloudy in southern Indiana.

TEMPS RADAR

This moisture serves notice of rain chances that arrive by sunrise Tuesday.  It’s with an area of low pressure along the Gulf Coast that’s making the move to the northeast.

Latest guidance suggests the southern half of the state gets the precipitation with this feature… with the highest rain amounts closer to the Ohio River.  The combination of snow melt and added rainfall will keep river/lowland flooding in play.

RAIN MODELS INDY RPM RAINFALL RPM RAINFALL OHIO VALLEY

Outdoor plans this evening are a go.  Rain doesn’t arrive until midnight but does play a role in the morning commute and bus stop Wednesday morning.  Steadiest rain is from 6am to 3pm with a gradual departure in moisture from west to east heading into late afternoon.

PLANNER EVENING RPM MONDAY 7PM RPM TUESDAY 6AM RPM TUESDAY 12PM

RPM TUESDAY 5PM PLANNER TUESDAY

Despite clouds and occasional dampness, temperatures tomorrow begin near 40 and finish near 50 degrees tomorrow.  We’ve advertised our warmest temperatures to be on Wednesday and Thursday… and that’s still on target with highs in the mid to upper 50s.  There will likely be low cloudiness/dense fog to “burn off” both days.  But sunshine, even if only for a few hours, will quickly warm up temperatures.

RPM WEDNESDAY 7AM RPM WEDNESDAY 4PM HIGHS THURSDAY 7DAY

Another rain-maker arrives Thursday night into Friday.  This system will bring rainfall to the entire region and makes for a rather wet Friday.  Rain amounts with this system will be in the half-inch to nearly one inch range.  Again raising the potential for flooding heading into the weekend – Sean Ash

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Mar
05

Bitter Cold Start Friday Morning

Posted By · March 5, 2015 at 11:46 pm

Temperatures continue to plummet quickly under a clear sky and light wind.  With the center of high pressure overhead tonight… the stage is set for potentially Central Indiana’s coldest March night in over 30 years.  Just before midnight many locations away from Indianapolis were already near or below zero.

TEMPS LOWS TONIGHT

Tonight:  With several more hours of raditional cooling to go we anticipate most Central India to be below zero by sunrise.  “If” our forecast low of zero for Indianapolis verifies, it will be the coldest March temperature since 1984 and only the 14th occurrence in March with a low at/below zero since 1871.  The record in Indianapolis is -6 set in 1960.

PLANNER MORNING RPM 4PM FRIDAY

Friday:  With or without a record, Friday morning will be bitter and expect out-the-door wind chills in the 0 to -10 range.  We’ll need all of the mostly sunny sky tomorrow we can get to push highs back to near 30 degrees during the afternoon.  Unfortunately it will never “feel like” 30 degrees due to the brisk southwest wind that gusts up to 20-25mph.

PLANNER TOMORROW

Weekend Outlook:  It might not be the brightest of weekends but the air mass modification continues and highs near 40 degrees Saturday and Sunday.  There’s also a slight chance of rain or snow Saturday night and again Sunday afternoon.  We’ll need to monitor these trends and may also need to adjust temperatures downward into the mid-30s too.  Chuck, Nicole and Angela will update on Friday.

RPM SATURDAY RPM SUNDAY

Welcomed Warmth!  Long range trends continue to point toward a spell of above normal warmth next week… with highs nearing 60 degrees Wednesday and Thursday.  Indianapolis’ last 60 degree day was November 30th of last year when the high hit 64.

It’s something to look forward to, but I’d expect fluctuations of warmth and cold to follow.  That’s typical of spring.  Have a great evening and don’t forget that Daylight Saving Time begins at 2am Sunday when we push our clocks forward one hour – Sean Ash

EURO TEMPS NEXT WEDNESDAY HIGHS THURSDAY 7DAY

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Mar
05

Near Record Lows Tonight But Nearing 60 Degrees Next Week!

Posted By · March 5, 2015 at 4:08 pm

Welcome to our coldest afternoon of the next 7 days.  Temperatures are a good 2o to 30 degrees below normal.  Unfortunately it gets much colder tonight with record lows in jeopardy for Indianapolis.

LIVE DOPPLER

Live Doppler 13 Radar shows some light lake effect in Clinton, Boone and Marion counties.  Random flurries and snow showers remain possible until after sunset.  Clouds clearing and an unseasonably cold air mass set the stage for the bitter night.  Lows in Indy near zero and many cities will be below zero Friday morning.  The record in Indianapolis is -6 set in 1960.

LOWS TONIGHT

“If” the forecast low of zero in Indianapolis verifies this will be a rare event for the month of March.  The last time the city had a low at or below zero was 1984… and it’s only happened 13 times on record since 1871.

HEADLINES 2

With or without a record, Friday morning will be bitter and expect out-the-door wind chills in the 0 to -10 range.  We’ll need all of the mostly sunny sky tomorrow we can get to push highs back to near 30 degrees during the afternoon.

PLANNER TOMORROW RPM 4PM FRIDAY HEADLINES

It might not be the brightest of weekends but the air mass modification continues and highs near 40 degrees Saturday and Sunday.  Long range trends continue to point toward a spell of above normal warmth next week… with highs nearing 60 degrees Wednesday and Thursday.

JET STREAM EURO TEMPS NEXT WEDNESDAY

It’s something to look forward to, but I’d expect fluctuations of warmth and cold to follow.  That’s typical of spring.  Have a great evening and don’t forget that Daylight Saving Time begins at 2am Sunday when we push our clocks forward one hour – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Mar
04

A Little Snow May Cause Big Road Problems Tonight

Posted By · March 4, 2015 at 3:40 pm

We still don’t anticipate much snow for the Indianapolis metro area, but light snow and temperatures in the lower 20s may make the roads slick this evening.  Snowfall will increase traveling south of I-70… but there’s definitely been a noticeable shift of the highest amounts to south of the Ohio River.

HEADLINES RPM 7PM RPM 12AM THURSDAY

Our updated snowfall potential map has lower amounts but still a problematic snow.  1″-3″ is expected now for Bloomington-Columbus-Greensburg with 3″+ potential for Seymour and Bedford.  Along and south of the Ohio River takes the brunt of this storm with amounts in the Bluegrass State likely nearing double digits for the second time in less than a month.

SNOW POTENTIAL HEADLINES 2 SNOW POTENTIAL OHV

Snow will be steadiest in Central and Southern Indiana this evening to midnight.  From northwest to southeast it will taper to flurries after midnight with the bulk of snow along the Ohio River by 4am.  Bitterly cold air arrives in the wake of the storm system and record cold “highs” will be rivaled tomorrow.  Highs range from 15 to 20 degrees Thursday which is a good 30 degrees below normal for early March.  Wind chills tomorrow also won’t be pleasant either… with a range of near zero to ten below zero.

RPM 7AM THURSDAY

The coldest temperatures of this latest bout of Arctic air appear Thursday night into Friday morning.  Many locations will be at or below zero Friday morning and near record lows for that date.  This all precedes a warm up this weekend that will see highs near 40 degrees.  It appears we’ll only be scratching the surface of a modeled pattern change.

JET STREAM THURSDAY JET STREAM WEDNESDAY

Long range indicators suggest a more “zonal” flow to the jet stream which promotes milder, Pacific air to spread eastward.  Some indications are a slight “ridge” may develop in the eastern U.S. to allow for above normal warmth for a change.  “If” this latter scenario verifies, highs next Wednesday may near 60 degrees!  Stay tuned – Sean Ash

7DAY

 

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Mar
04

Slick Evening Commute For Southern Half Of Indiana

Posted By · March 4, 2015 at 11:35 am

Wednesday Midday Update: Arctic air teams up with a stalled front to deliver a messy evening commute for the southern half of Indiana… including the Indy metro area.  Latest Ohio Valley Radar show a broad area moisture along the Ohio River Valley.

Local temperature analysis shows the intrusion of much colder air in western Indiana… where temperatures are in the lower 20s.  This colder undercuts the moisture and snow eventually develops around or just after midday along the I-70 corridor as lift increases along the stalled front.  In north central Indiana the air will likely be dry enough to limit snow potential, though flurries are certainly fair game.

TEMPS RPM 5PM

While snow amounts will be light (up to 1″) in the metro area, the snow will be falling into temperatures in the lower 20s. This means roads get slick quick where snow occurs and the timing places it during the evening rush hour.  This could make for a long drive home.

Snow amounts ramp up quickly traveling southward. We’re still calling for a 2-5″ accumulation in Bloomington-Nashville-Columbus-Greensburg and up to 6″+ for Seymour-Bedford.

SNOW POTENTIAL

Remember the gradient from northwest to southeast will be extreme… and amounts even within counties will range widely. Also any wiggle to the storm track could cause big fluctuations of amounts either north or south.

A snow bulls eye of 8″-10″+ looks to target the Ohio River from Louisville to Lexington. Travel down south overnight into Thursday morning will be rather difficult… if not impossible.

HEADLINES

Nicole Misencik is putting finishing touches on forecast and will a full update beginning at noon today.

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Mar
03

Update On Another Ohio Valley Winter Storm

Posted By · March 3, 2015 at 5:07 pm

Welcome to Central Indiana’s warmest day since February 8th when highs neared 60 degrees.  It’s not that warm locally, but 60s are showing up south of the Ohio River.  Unbelievably that area is in the cross-hairs of another heavy snow dump the next 36 hours… and the winter storm will have a local impact on the WTHR viewing area.  Expect temperatures to tumble some 20 degrees over the next 24 hours.

TEMPS OHV TEMP BAR GRAPH

Melting snow, and the relatively warmer air gliding over it, is keeping visibility low this evening with areas of dense fog.  Street flooding and ponding of water in low lying areas continues as well from run-off and areas of showers.

RPM 8PM TODAY RPM 4AM WEDNESDAY RPM 9AM WEDNESDAY

Colder air teams up with lingering moisture overnight to squeeze-out a period of wintry mix… perhaps heavy enough to accumulate in some areas.  Regardless… moisture on roads likely refreezes as temperatures fall well into the 20s by sunrise Wednesday.  Expect another slick commute area wide.  Better chances for accumulating snow arrive during Wednesday afternoon and evening for the southern half of Indiana.

HEADLINES PLANNER TOMORROW HEADLINES SNOW

The heaviest snow looks to target areas south of I-70… with a potential 10″+ snow “bulls eye” along the Ohio River.  We’re not advising travel in southern Indiana/Kentucky Wednesday evening into Thursday as it will be dangerous to maybe impossible.

SNOW POTENTIAL

We’re keeping the Indy metro area in a 1-2″ snow potential zone, Bloomington/Columbus/Greensburg/Bloomfield in 2-5″ and Bedford/Mitchell/Seymour/North Vernon at 5-8″.  The latter is currently in a Winter Storm Watch and will likely be upgraded to Warning status if model data continues to hold.  Additional Winter Weather Advisories may be needed farther north too.

We have high confidence on the 5-8″ zone verifying, medium confidence on the 2-5″, and lower confidence in the 1-2″ zone.  Please note that there will be rather sharp snowfall gradients from northwest to southeast within snow zones.  Also there remains potential for significant changes to amounts and placement the next 24 hours… so please check back for updates.

WINTER STORM WATCH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING

Another shot near record low temperatures arrives on the heels of this storm, and temperatures Thursday morning into Friday morning will be a good 20 to 30 degrees below normal.  Long range guidance offers hope for above normal temperatures arriving the middle of next week.  “If” this verifies we could see highs in the upper 50s to near 60 by mid-month.  Keep hope alive!  Stay safe and check for updates please – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Mar
03

Fog and Flooding Today To Accumulating Snow For Some Wednesday

Posted By · March 3, 2015 at 1:40 pm

The good news is that most locations in Central Indiana are now well above freezing.  But this “warming” increases the risk for areas of dense fog and street flooding.

TEMPS HEADLINES PLANNER AFTERNOON

Aiding in the flood threat are areas of downpours moving through the state… especially in southern Indiana.  Temperatures max-out in the upper 30s to mid 40s this evening and hang steady until the latest Arctic front passes after midnight.

Colder air returning overnight changes rain into a period of wintry mix before ending prior to sunrise.  Areas of freezing drizzle remain possible into the Wednesday morning, and lows in the mid-20s suggests another slick commute area wide.

PLANNER TONIGHT PLANNER WEDNESDAY WINTER STORM WATCH

Another surge of moisture rides along the Arctic boundary tomorrow and ups the ante for accumulating snow… especially areas south of I-70.  Our latest snowfall potential map remains highly subject to change, but we have high confidence on areas south of Bloomington-Columbus-Greensburg verifying in the 5″+ range.  Travel will become dangerous, if not impossible, along the Ohio River Wednesday evening into Thursday.

SNOW POTENTIAL SNOW POTENTIAL 2

Farther north it’s more complicated due to an expected sharp snowfall gradient that will be very close to the I-70 corridor.  At this point we don’t feel comfortable dropping the Indy metro area from some accumulation… but take note that we have low confidence on the current 1-2″ potential actually verifying.

SNOW POTENTIAL 3 HEADLINES 2

We’re roughly 24 hours away so significant track changes can occur that could drastically change snow amounts in any given area.  In a nutshell stay tuned to the forecast between now and then.  We’ll update as new information becomes available.

With or without shovelable snow, roads will likely be slick as standing water freezes in steady to falling temperatures in the mid to lower 20s tomorrow.  We anticipate another slow commute Thursday morning with lows nearing the single digits.

7DAY

Record cold temperatures are possible Thursday afternoon and Friday morning.  This precedes a weekend warm up that sends highs to near 40 degrees.  Long range guidance advertises a pattern conducive of normal to above normal temperatures arriving during the middle of next week.  If you’re sick of cold hope it verifies – Sean Ash

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