Areal Flood Warnings remain up for northern Indiana, including the cities of Marion, Peru, Bunker Hill, and Hartford City. This area has been in the line of fire of rounds of heavy rain over the past seven days… much of which (3-5″) occurred in the past 72 hours. Meanwhile Southern Indiana has been spared and remains parched in comparison with some areas only seeing an inch of rainfall the entire month.
As we’ve mentioned many times in the past several days… that’s about to change! Scattered heavy storms passed across areas south of I-70 earlier today and a new round of scattered storms is underway. These storms increase later this evening and are the first of many waves of heavy rain/locally strong storms between now and Saturday evening. This is all part of the moisture feed from the Gulf of Mexico that continues to move along the periphery of a brutal hot dome that’s anchored in the east-southeastern U.S.
This is all part of the moisture feed from the Gulf of Mexico that continues to move along the periphery of a brutal hot dome that’s anchored in the east-southeastern U.S. The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill, which is now onshore, become a big piece to our forecast puzzle later this week. There is fairly good consensus in medium range modeling to bring the center of Bill’s circulation into the Ohio Valley late Friday into Saturday.
There is fairly good consensus in medium range modeling to bring the center of Bill’s circulation into the Ohio Valley late Friday into Saturday. Areas east-northeast of the circulation center track stand the best chance of seeing the highest rainfall totals. The images below are the latest computer model guidance for rainfall.
While there is wiggle room on amounts… there is growing confidence that many areas could see 3-5″+ rainfall the next 5 days. This brings a heightened risk of flooding and flash flooding. The east side of the circulation is also a favored region for low-topped storms that can produce brief tornadoes in a highly sheared environment. We’ll need to monitor conditions and the track closely. Please check back for updates.
Long range guidance hints that this time next week the hottest air of the year could be arriving as the hot dome sets up over the Ohio Valley. If this verifies mid-90s and heat indices at/above 100 degrees are very much in play. We’ll update in the coming days – Sean Ash
With the exception of an early morning batch of downpours, the greatest coverage of heavy storms is again up across northern Indiana… closer to a weak, stalled frontal boundary. Due to very high levels of moisture in the atmosphere torrential rains are falling as storm cells propagate over the same areas.
This is a process known as “training” rain in meteorology and leads to areal and flash flooding. As a result a Flash Flood Watch is up for northern counties of the WTHR viewing area and includes the cities of Monticello, Peru, Peru and Hartford City. Rain rates of 1-2″+ per hour are likely in any storms or showers this evening.
Farther south rain is much more spotty and humid heat is more of story. Heat indices are in the 90s again today and make for uncomfortable conditions. Scattered storms are possible at anytime and any where this evening… with the risk of heavy rain continuing tonight into Tuesday morning.
It does appear the storm axis may finally shift toward the southern half of the state tomorrow and put areas south of I-70 more in play for beneficial rain.
All medium to long rang guidance continues to indicate the potential for widespread heavy rainfall to set up shop in the Ohio Valley the next 7 days. The flow around the center of a hot dome in the southeastern U.S. is pumping Gulf of Mexico moisture northward all the way into the Great Lakes.
Adding insult to injury will be the copious amount of moisture with a tropical system currently offshore from Texas getting caught into what’s called the “ring of fire”. This is the area of rain/storms around the edges of the hot dome where air sinks to prevent clouds and rain.
Though it’s still uncertain exactly where the heaviest rain axis will establish… rainfall totals of 3-5″+ are very possible in Central Indiana between now and next Monday which is represented by the computer model rainfall potential maps below. Don’t focus on exact amounts, but more of the overall model consensus of what will become a heavy rain swath within the Ohio Valley. This could create flooding issues down the road aside from the flash flooding risk the next 24-36 hours. Stay tuned for updates and check back frequently for changes to the forecast.
If you’re not a fan of humid heat I’m afraid to say we’re in for the long haul. With the exception of Wednesday and Thursday (which still features jungle-like humidity) highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with heat heat indices in the 90s. Our next best shot of completely dry day is a week from now… and much can change that far out. Have a nice evening and stay weather aware until further notice – Sean Ash
Scattered showers and locally heavy storms remain in play overnight as another upper disturbance moves across the state.
The Muggy Meter remains in the oppressive range with tropical dewpoints at or above 70 degrees.
Monday looks to be hotter area wide with the main focal point for storms lifting back into far northern Indiana. Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s with heat indices soaring well into the 90s. Strong to severe storms are possible in the afternoon, but more likely Monday night as the front begins to sag southward.
Tropical moisture, daytime heating, multiple upper air disturbances and a stalled front produce daily chances of heavy storms. Computer model guidance suggest widespread 3″+ rainfall will be likely by the end of the week… with locally higher amounts in pockets of storms between now and then.
Some of this rain will be courtesy of the remnants of a landfalling tropical system that is projected to follow around the hot dome in the southeastern U.S. If this verifies, beneficial rainfall will be likely in the Ohio River Valley… an area that’s been abnormally dry recently. Stay tuned for updates.
If you have the free SkyTrak13 Weather App you can check live Doppler 13 radar whenever you’d like to help decide your outdoor plans.
Much of Central Indiana, including the Indy metro area, is now under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9pm..
Thus far cloud cover has slowed warming in comparison to the past two days, but an upper disturbance in southern Illinois and a frontal system in northern Indiana will be the triggers needed to set off scattered storms.
While most storms produce torrential rainfall and lightning, a few storms that organize into line segments may produce locally severe wind gusts. Please check the radar frequently if you plan to be outside and we encourage you to download our free Skytrak13 Weather App for updates today.
Storm coverage will be highest between the hours of 2pm and 10pm… diminish after sunset and we’ll likely see additional showers and gusty storms late tonight as another disturbance pushes across Central Indiana.
Additional bouts of strong/severe storms are possible in the coming days as parts of the viewing area are highlighted for a low risk (15% probability) of severe storms both Monday and Tuesday. Damaging wind again will be the primary risk of severe weather, but flash flooding rain remains very much in play with a tropical connection to the air mass across the Ohio Valley.
Speaking of tropical… computer guidance suggests the remnants of tropical feature may ride the flow around a high pressure into the Ohio Valley mid-week. If this verifies we could receive some beneficial rain. Both the European and GFS models crank out 3″+ rainfall the next 7 days. This doesn’t account for locally heavy storms that could produce 1-3″ themselves. Stay tuned!
A cloudier start in Central Indiana compared to the past few days and this may prolong the initiation of the latest round of scattered heavy storms. Though localized damaging wind remains possible in any storms this evening… flash flooding rain and lightning are more likely due to less heating than the past few days.
While temperatures may not reach the upper 80s, it’s certainly going to feel that warm and warmer due to the tropical humidity in place. The very moist air is reflected in high precipitatble water values (PWATs) in the 1.50-2″ range. Numbers that high are much more common in the Deep South and Florida, and values that high support the heavy rain forecast the next several days.
Scattered storms should begin to take shape by 4pm and travel eastward. Be weather aware and check radar frequently if you plan to attend any outdoor events due to the high likelihood of lightning in storms today.
Activity decreases after sunset but additional heavy showers and storms develop late tonight as upper air disturbances moves across Central Indiana. Cloud cover may be less Monday and allow highs to near 90 degrees again. With the front creeping back farther north and the atmosphere becoming more “capped” from warm air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere… we could spend much of the day dry. This will allow for greater instability to feed into storms Monday night.
Strong to severe storms are possible Monday and Tuesday. A steady stream of tropical moisture, a stalled front and several waves of upper energy leads widespread heavy rainfall totals the Ohio Valley this week. It should be noted higher totals are certainly possible in heavier storms and flooding may arise due to this set up.
Spotty heavy showers with rumbles of thunder are already moving across Central Indiana early this morning. These storms will be non-severe but drop brief downpours, gusty wind and some lightning.
We’re still anticipating several dry hours today with uncomfortable humidity levels. In fact, the Muggy Meter will be around the oppressive range (70 degree+ dewpoints) for the foreseeable future. Tropical moisture means tropical downpours in any storms or showers that do develop today. Parts of Central Indiana are under a risk, albeit 15% probability, for severe weather today. This will primarily be between the hours of 2pm and 10pm and mainly for damaging wind gusts… though brief tornado spin-ups are certainly possible.
Storm coverage peaks in the 5pm to 9pm time frame and decreases after sunset. Air conditioners continue to work overtime tonight with muggy lows in the 70s. The humid air, locally heavy rainfall and a light wind tonight may aid in the development of areas of dense fog.
We’ll be back at it Monday in regards to humid heat and severe storm potential. Again the main timing of greatest storm coverage will be after 3pm and prior to midnight. Damaging wind, flash flooding rain, frequent lightning and possibly a quick tornado are all possibilities tomorrow.
It’s a rinse and repeat forecast for several days as the unsettled weather pattern remains dialed in across the Ohio Valley. An early season hot dome is establishing across the southeastern United States. Underneath the upper ridge of high pressure is sinking air…which promotes heat and little rain. However, wrapping around the edges of the hot dome is a tropical feed of moisture that feeds heavy storms in better lift away from the high. This is an area we label the “ring of fire” and this feed of moisture and storms will be directed toward the Ohio Valley and Central Indiana in the coming days.
Tropical moisture, daytime heating, multiple upper air disturbances and a stalled front produce daily chances of heavy storms. Computer model guidance suggests 1-3″ rainfall will be likely by the end of the week… with locally higher amounts.
You may have noticed a good deal of haze in the sky across Central Indiana. While this not an uncommon sight during summer months in the Ohio Valley… the haze today traveled a great distance to get here.
What you’re actually seeing are the remnant particles from Canadian wildfires that originated in western Ontario as well as the Alberta and Saskatchewan provinces in Central Canada. Some of this smoke originated over 1,000 miles away. The smoke plume is more prevalent in our central and northeastern viewing area… where it’s limiting sun and heating. You can see overcast in the Kokomo camera image below and contrasted by a much brighter sky in Bloomfield.
Hi-resolution visible satellite imagery from the NASA MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite shows just how thick the smoke is over Indiana and Lake Michigan. You can also see the trail to its origins north of the border.
Below is a animation of early day visible satellite imagery across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. You can see the milky layer moving over Indiana and is the smoke particles in the upper levels (around 25,000 feet) of the atmosphere.
The USDA Forest Service website indicates several active wildfires in Alberta as of this morning. It’s no surprise that latest jet stream (winds roughly around 30-35,000 feet) analysis shows a northwest to southeast direction from the location of the fires down into the Ohio Valley.
Computer model data below suggests this upper flow regime remains in place for a few more days before flattening out and becoming more west to east later in the week. So we may see more haze transported southward across the border between now and then.
This haze was responsible for the pinkish sunrise this morning and may aid in a brilliant sunset this evening as it scatters shorter wavelengths of light away… resulting in a more red sunset. Get your cameras ready this evening for what should be a spectacular sunset!
Severe weather threat is over for Central Indiana though areas of moderate rain continue this morning. Roadways will be rather wet and possibly flooded in some locations. Widespread rain diminishes heading toward sunrise as the heaviest axis drops toward the Ohio River.
Clouds may thin for some afternoon sun, but daytime heating will trigger widely scattered storms as highs creep back into the 80s. Less humid air arrives tonight as a northwest wind blows across the state.
It’s certainly going to look and feel like summer this week. Highs will be in the mid-80s and nearing 90 degrees Wednesday into Friday. After today the next best chance of storms is Friday evening.
Be safe this morning and we’ll have updates on WTHR Sunrise from 4am – 9am. Have a great day – Chuck Lofton