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Feb
10

Active And Much Colder Pattern Arriving Wednesday Night

Posted By · February 10, 2015 at 3:59 pm

Some welcomed sunshine across Central Indiana and temperatures respond nicely with highs in the middle 30s.  The visible satellite image below shows plenty of clear sky (indicative of the black background) with the snow fields remaining up north.

TEMPS

A feature near Minneapolis cuts across the Great Lakes overnight.  It may provide just enough lift locally to support some scattered light sleet/snow showers after midnight and prior to to the Wednesday morning commute.  We’ll need to monitor radar closely later this evening for potential road impacts late tonight.

RADAR.JP RPM WEDNESDAY 1AM RPM WEDNESDAY 7AM

Clouds with this system keep temperatures up overnight with lows mainly in the 20s.  The best chance of the aforementioned light precipitation is north of I-74… but most places should remain dry and clouds have more bark than bite.

LOWS TONIGHT PLANNER WEDNESDAY

Early day sunshine gives way to increasing clouds Wednesday, but not before highs climb into the 40s for a few hours.  Scattered mixed showers are possible by late afternoon and precipitation increases Wednesday night into Thursday morning as Arctic air pushes into the state.

HIGHS TOMORROW RPM WEDNESDAY 5PM RPM THURSDAY 12AM

In the wake of a Arctic front, vigorous snow showers and/or squalls seem likely by Thursday midday… possibly impacting the morning commute with localized accumulation of an inch or more.  Combined with temperatures in the lower teens slick conditions can be expected during the day Thursday, along with wind chills in the 0 to -15 range.

RPM THURSDAY 1PM PLANNER THURSDAY

This is the first of two bitter blasts to hit the eastern U.S.  A second arrives this weekend and looks to be even colder.  Upper level energy cranks out some light snow Friday before a renewed round of snow showers/squalls emerge Saturday.  Windy conditions develop too as the storm intensifies to our east and the cold air funnels southward into the Ohio Valley.  Temperatures drop into the single digits Valentine’s Day afternoon and near zero by Sunday morning.

WIND CHILL THIS WEEKEND RPM FRIDAY 7AM

Something Brewing Early Next Week?  Long range model guidance continues to keep snow hopes alive in Central Indiana during the Monday Night-Wednesday Morning time frame next week.  However it’s much too early for specifics or to get too excited if you’re a snow lover.  Please note the energy with this potential system is out over the Pacific and yet to be sampled by weather balloons in the states.  Much will change over the next seven days so check back for updates.

GFS CANADIAN EURO 7DAY

Stay tuned – Sean Ash

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Feb
09

Much Colder Today, But Coldest Yet To Come

Posted By · February 9, 2015 at 4:53 pm

What a jolt to the system!  A day ago many areas neared 60°.  Today we’re dealing with overcast, temperatures in the 20s, and wind chills in the teens.  The wind chill make it “feel” about 40° colder than 24 hours ago.

TODAY LOWS TONIGHT

The low cloud overcast hangs strong the next 24 hours as moisture remains trapped at the surface.  With temperatures dropping into the lower 20s & upper teens overnight, and areas of fog/drizzle possible, additional slick spots are likely heading into the Tuesday morning commute.

PLANNER TUESDAY RPM TUESDAY 4PM RPM WEDNESDAY 7AM

Slowly but surely some breaks for sunshine occur Tuesday afternoon and temperatures respond by warming into the mid-30s.  Our warmest day for awhile will be Wednesday.  Highs hit the mid to upper 40s prior to the passage of the first of two Arctic fronts to impact the region this week.  Rain showers changeover to snow showers and/or squalls as the bitter air crosses over Lake Michigan.

RPM WEDNESDAY 4PM RPM THURSDAY 7AM

A slick commute is very possible Thursday morning with temperatures in the low teens and sub-zero wind chills.  Locally heavy lake squalls are possible, if not likely, but will require some now casting in regards to the exact wind vector.  Cold air advection and the upper disturbance may be enough to squeeze out a widespread dusting to an inch outside of lake effect.

RPM WIND CHILL 7AM THURSDAY RPM THURSDAY 1PM JET STREAM THURSDAY 1PM JET STREAM SUNDAY 7AM

A second Arctic front hits this weekend and keeps temperatures about 20° colder than normal Saturday & Sunday, and nearly 40° colder than last weekend.  This puts lake effect snow showers and squalls in play for Valentine’s Day.  But no complaining about the cold as it could be much worse.  The memories of Indy’s snowiest winter on record remain fresh… as we officially went over 50″ from December 1st to February 28th (meteorological winter) last season.

In just 17 days the city of Boston topped that feat by over 16″!  Model guidance suggest two more potential heavy snow-makers for the northeast Friday and Sunday.

SNOWFALL GFS

The above image (courtesy of WeatherBell.com) is the GFS output Friday at 8am… this would be a wind-whipped, heavy snow event for Boston and the surrounding area.  Below is an image (also courtesy of WeatherBell.com) of the European model Sunday at 8am.  We’ll see how this pans out and if our neighbors to the east will continue to climb the record books.

EURO7DAY

We’ll need to monitor next Tuesday & Wednesday for wintry precipitation potential… though it’s much too early for specifics.  Check back for updates and have a nice evening – Sean Ash

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Feb
08

Here Comes The Cold

Posted By · February 8, 2015 at 6:29 pm

What a weekend!  Back-to-back days in the mid-50s for most marked Central Indiana’s warmest consecutive days since late November.  The high of 57 in Indianapolis is the city’s warmest temperature since November 30th, nearly 20 degrees above normal and only 11 degrees shy of a record.

WEEKEND HIGHS

The chill returns this evening but not before some major melting took place up north.  The picture below shows what’s left of the 4-6″ snow pack that began the weekend in the Peru/Bunker Hill area.

BUNKER HILL PLANNER EVENING

Areas of drizzle and light showers can be expected the next few hours as the cold front moves north to south across the region.

RPM 8PM SUNDAY RPM 12AM MONDAY RPM 8AM MONDAY

We’re going back to winter reality tonight with the arrival of a cold front.  By the time you wake Monday morning temperatures will be in the 20s with areas of freezing drizzle possible.

PLANNER TONIGHT PLANNER MONDAY

Though highs Monday will be closer to normal in the lower 30s, it will be a good 20 to 25 degrees colder than this weekend.  Clouds hang tough Monday before some partial sunshine returns Tuesday.

RPM 5PM MONDAY RPM 5PM TUESDAY RPM 2PM WEDNESDAY

Temperatures briefly warm into the mid-40s Wednesday before an Arctic front sweeps across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.  This sets the stage for a prolonged spell of below normal temperatures that begins with sub-zero wind chills and scattered lake effect snow showers Thursday morning.  Temperatures will remain 10 to 15 degrees below normal into next weekend.

WEDNESDAY JET STREAM SUNDAY JET STREAM 7DAY

Have a safe evening – Sean Ash

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Feb
05

Weekend Warm Up Into The 40s

Posted By · February 5, 2015 at 4:00 pm

The fresh snowfall from Wednesday and a clear sky last night led the way for the coldest morning in Central Indiana since January 4th.  Most locations that picked up 2-4″ yesterday dropped below zero for a few hours this morning… and single digits were reported as far south as Bloomington.  Despite a full dose of early February sunshine, daytime high temperatures remain a 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

TODAY

If you’re keeping score… Indianapolis is nearly 11″ below normal for winter (Dec-Feb) snowfall and about 38″ less than this time last winter.  We see very little chances of snow in the 7 day forecast, but do envision some rain to be in play late in the weekend.

SNOW STATS

It’s rain and not snow due the warm up into the mid and upper 40s we’re expecting.  It’s very possible that areas in southern Indiana may hit 50 degrees or higher… while the snow pack up north will have a modifying effect and keep highs closer to 40 degrees.

WEEKEND WARMUP PLANNER TONIGHT

Chilly, but not as cold tonight with lows in Indianapolis in the low to mid teens.  Areas up north will likely drop into the single digits quickly after sunset and then see temperatures hold steady or rise as a southwest wind picks up.  That wind flow and intervals of sunshine push temperatures well into the 30s Friday.

PLANNER FRIDAY RPM 4PM FRIDAY RPM 4PM SATURDAY

Saturday looks to be the brighter of the two days this weekend.  An area of low pressure moves across the state Sunday to bring scattered showers during the afternoon and evening.  Farther north the showers may mix with sleet or some freezing rain… but this should mainly be a liquid precipitation event.  The temperature see-saw continues next week with another system to impact the region Wednesday into Thursday.  Have a nice evening and check back for updates – Sean Ash

RPM 7AM SUNDAY 7DAY

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Feb
04

Dangerous Road Conditions This Evening As Bitter Cold Returns

Posted By · February 4, 2015 at 6:20 pm

Moderate to heavy snow continues to fall across the I-70 and I-74 corridors with locations in north-central Indiana already reporting 3 to 4 inches.  Road conditions are deteriorating rapidly and there have been numerous slide-offs along I-65 near Lafayette.

BOB SEAGAL JASON HEADLINES

Areas along I-70 can expect a general 1-2″ accumulation with areas north of I-74 finishing in the 3-4″ (locally higher) range.  If you live south of I-70 expect an 1″ or less before the snow ends by midnight.

TEMPS

Northwestern Indiana is already in the teens and the temperature tumble continues all night.  Though widespread snow diminishes by midnight, scattered lake effect showers and squalls continue into Thursday morning.  Some locations downwind of the NNW fetch off of Lake Michigan will see additional, albeit localized, accumulation before sunrise Thursday.

RPM 12AM THURSDAY RPM 8AM THURSDAY

Regardless of amounts in your area, roads get slick tonight and for the Thursday morning commute as temperatures crash into the single digits (if not sub-zero in northwest Indiana).

Expect sub-zero wind chills during the morning and only a modest “warm up” into the upper teens.  Temperatures tomorrow will be nearly 20-25 degrees below normal.  After tomorrow temperatures gradually warm and latest guidance suggest mid-40s for most Saturday/Sunday

WIND CHILL PLANNER TONIGHT PLANNER THURSDAY HIGHS TOMORROW 7DAY

Be safe this evening if you must travel – Sean Ash

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Feb
04

Snowy Finish Followed By Bitterly Cold Night

Posted By · February 4, 2015 at 12:57 pm

Don’t let our mildest afternoon in nearly a week fool you.  An area of snow across north-central Indiana will build southeastward along an approaching Arctic front.

TEMPS HEADLINES

We expect the snow to increase this afternoon… reaching the Indy metro area around 3 or 4pm.  The snow will fall moderately to heavy at times blanketing most areas along and north of I-70 with a generally 1-2″ accumulation.  Areas north of I-74, where it snows earlier and heavier, will have totals closer to 3″.  If you live south of I-70 expect an 1″ or less before the snow ends by midnight.

TODAY SNOWFALL FORECAST

Regardless of amounts in your area, roads get slick tonight and for the Thursday morning commute as temperatures crash into the single digits (if not sub-zero in northwest Indiana).

A persistent north-northwesterly wind in the wake of the front’s passage will drive down occasional lake effect flurries and snow showers tonight into Thursday…. possibly adding additional accumulation to areas downwind of the lake.

PLANNER THIS EVENING PLANNER TONIGHT

Expect sub-zero wind chills during the morning and only a modest “warm up” into the upper teens. Temperatures tomorrow will be nearly 20-25 degrees below normal.  After tomorrow temperatures gradually warm and latest guidance suggest mid-40s for most Saturday/Sunday.

TOMORROW

7DAY

At this point there are no big storms in our 7 day forecast… though numerous clipper systems will tease us as they cut across the Great Lakes.  Stay safe this evening and check back for updates – Sean Ash

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Feb
02

Chilly Night Ahead And Accumulating Snow Possible Wednesday Evening

Posted By · February 2, 2015 at 4:36 pm

You can definitely feel the wind of change blowing across Central Indiana today.  Temperatures are a good 5 to 15 degrees colder than 24 hours ago and wind chills remain in the teens to single digits.  Visible satellite imagery over the Ohio Valley shows the snow pack left behind from the Super Bowl Sunday storm.  You can distinctly see the track the storm took along the I-70 corridor… which dumped the heaviest snow totals from Chicago to Fort Wayne and Detroit.

1KM VIS

This was 50 to 100 miles farther north than some of the early model guidance used in constructing the forecast heading into the weekend.  Though we did our best to convey the uncertainty in track and our lack of confidence along the I-70/74 corridors… this was a missed forecast.  The image below from the National Weather Service in Wilmington, Ohio shows the track challenge in the complicated forecast.

TRACK

The “warmer” and more northerly track is why snow totals were significantly lower than anticipated.  The shift in track delivered Chicago’s 5th heaviest snow storm on record at 19.3″ and Detroit’s 3rd heaviest 16.7″… that Motor City’s biggest storm since 1974!

SNOW SINCE JULY 1ST SNOW LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME

But thus far this winter pales in comparison to last, with many cities in the Great Lakes running 20 to 30 inches less than this time last year.  Locally you can see the differences from north to south in our network of cameras.  Bunker Hill and Taylor are covered in a healthy 4 to 6″, while Nashville has a bare ground.  This difference in snow pack plays a vital role in our temperature forecast in the days ahead… proving challenging due to the ability of the snow to reflect sunlight and heat.

CAMERAS

After sunset temperatures should quickly drop into the single digits north of I-70, but even areas of no snow drop into the lower teens.  Chilly stuff regardless of your location.  High temperatures Tuesday will overall be warmer than today.  However areas with snow on the ground likely remain in the 20s and nearly 20 degrees colder than south central Indiana.

LOWS TONIGHT HIGHS TOMORROW PLANNER TUESDAY

A quick hitting disturbance looks to spread some snow back into northern Indiana Tuesday evening.  This will mainly impact areas along and north of a Crawfordsville-Tipton-Marion line with possibly 1 to 2 inches.  A more widespread snow threat arrives with a stronger feature Wednesday afternoon into predawn Thursday.  The combination of an approaching Arctic front and developing surface low pressure system will generate a shield of snow.  It’s early, but accumulations of 1 to 3 inches seem likely at this point.  We’ll fine tune numbers and timing tomorrow as new data sets arrive.

RPM PANEL SNOW POTENTIAL

This batch of snow is followed by another surge of bitterness for Thursday.  Lows that day will be in the single digits with sub-zero wind chills.  A brief, modest warm up Friday into Saturday gives way to another potential snow-maker Sunday.  Stay tuned and check back frequently as this active pattern looks to hold for a few weeks – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Feb
02

Slick Travel Overnight As New Snow Falls And Roads Refreeze

Posted By · February 2, 2015 at 12:28 am

Colder air returning on the backside of the departing winter system drops overnight temperatures into the mid and lower teens.  This will refreeze area roadways and make for dangerous travel conditions for the Monday morning commute.  In addition a new round of snow may drop localized accumulations up to an inch or two… especially north of Indianapolis.

TEMPS PLANNER TONIGHT

However wind and the falling temperatures will be the bigger weather story.  Gusts may near 30 to 40mph to cause blowing snow in northern Indiana.  Wind chills of 0 to -10 can be expected in what will be bitter start to the day for those who have to go outside.

HEADLINES RPM 7AM MONDAY WIND CHILL

The fetch off of Lake Michigan keeps snow showers and squalls in play even beyond the morning.  Not everyone will see snow showers Monday, but localized accumulation remains possible.  Temperatures really struggle within the cold air advection and we’re expecting “highs” to remain below 20 degrees in many backyards.

RPM 12PM MONDAY RPM 4PM MONDAY PLANNER MONDAY

The 7day forecast remains active with another chance of clipper snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, and again Wednesday evening into Thursday morning along an approaching Arctic front.  Plenty of winter left in my humble of opinion.  Stay safe if you’re traveling and Chuck Lofton has updates beginning at 4am – Sean Ash

7DAY

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