Wet And Windy Wednesday

Deceiving sunshine with temperatures struggling to hit 50 degrees and that’s about 10 degrees below average.

evening

But it’s certainly brighter and more pleasant than Monday afternoon and offers a nice setting for the NCAA Women’s Championship Night in Indianapolis.  Have fun if you’re coming downtown and expect steady, cool temperatures in the 40s with southeasterly wind 5 to 15mph.

TONIGHT 12AM 8AM

Clouds increase overnight but dry air at the surface keeps the chances of precipitation relatively low.  What the clouds will do efficiently is keep temperatures up about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than this morning.

5PM WEDNESDAY

After starting near 40 degrees Wednesday morning expect daytime highs near 60 despite the likelihood of rain in the afternoon.  We don’t expect severe weather tomorrow… but gusty wind over 40mph, downpours and some thunder are all on the table.

RAIN POTENTIAL

Rain amounts should end up in the .25″ to near 1″ range.  The rain combined with upcoming cold shot will lower the pollen count for a few days later this week.

POLLEN 6AM THURSDAY THURSDAY 5PM THURSDAY PLANNER

The passage of the latest cold front Thursday afternoon delivers another string of unseasonably cold days.

Thursday and Friday features highs in the 40s with a good chance of rain and snow showers.  By Friday evening precipitation should mainly be frozen and localized accumulation is possible Friday night in heavier snow showers.

JET JET 2

Another hard freeze looks likely Saturday morning with lows in the 20s.  Confidence continues to grow on Saturday being over 20 degrees colder than normal with highs in the 30s… not far from record cold highs!

HEADLINES

TEMPS

Sunday morning will be another hard freeze and with clouds increasing ensures daytime highs Sunday afternoon struggle to hit 50 degrees.  Another rain-maker arrives Monday with highs in the 60s – Sean Ash

7DAY

 

Freeze Warning Tonight And Coldest Air Yet To Come?

What a wild day of watching temperatures tumble across Central Indiana… from near 60 degrees at 2am into the upper 30s and lower 40s this afternoon.

2AM 7AM 11AM NOW 8PM

The cold flow over the Great Lakes, combined with upper level energy moving across the Ohio Valley, may squeeze out some flurries or snow showers this evening.

TONIGHT FREEZE WARNING

Clouds clear later tonight to allow temperatures to drop even further with lows in the lower to mid 20s by sunrise Tuesday.  A Freeze Warning begins at 2am and lasts until 9am tomorrow.

LOWS TONIGHT TUESDAY MORNING

Any plants or flowers you have outside will need to be covered for protection or moved indoors if possible.  Remember the average last freeze date in Indianapolis is April 16th and the latest occurred on May 27, 1961.  We always advise to not plant anything until after Mother’s Day weekend.

HIGHS TOMORROW TUESDAY AFTERNOON

Morning sun gives way to partly sunny conditions Tuesday with highs near 50 degrees.  Rain and storms increase Wednesday along with breezy conditions.  We’ll then have a series of cold fronts and upper disturbances move through the state between then and the end of the weekend.  Each reinforces the chill and eventually delivers periods of flurries and snow showers.

WEDNESDAY MORNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON JET

High temperatures Friday and Saturday may end up closer to the average low for this time of year… which equates to lower 40s and upper 30s!  Also expect lows in the 20s and more Freeze Warnings Friday-Sunday – Sean Ash

7DAY

 

Windy Evening Marks Active Week

After our coldest start in mover a month, temperatures responded nicely to sunshine and a stiff southwest wind by finishing over 30 degrees warmer than this morning.

HEADINES

LOWS TEMPS GUSTS CURRENT GUSTS TONIGHT

Increasing clouds this evening combined with gusts over 30mph keep temperatures mainly in the 50s for much of the night.  An approaching cold front has limited moisture to work with in the atmosphere… but should trigger widely scattered showers and some thunder between 10pm and 8am Monday.

MONDAY 12AM MONDAY 7AM MONDAY MORNING MONDAY AFTERNOON

The passage of the front keeps temperatures steady tomorrow with a brisk north-northwesterly wind deliver a chill.  By late afternoon and evening scattered rain and snow showers develop and will be locally heavy.

MONDAY 4PM TUESDAY 12AM LOWS TUESDAY

Another hard freeze is likely Monday night into Tuesday as lows drop back into the lower and mid 20s.  Tuesday is the brightest day of the week before another rain and storm-maker arrives Wednesday.  Unseasonably cold air dominates the Ohio Valley late week into next weekend with several chances of snow showers and hard freezes.  Have a nice evening – Sean Ash

FREEZE WATCH TUESDAY WEDNESDAY 7DAY

Another hard freeze is likely Monday night into Tuesday as lows drop back into the lower and mid 20s.  Tuesday is the brightest day of the week before another rain and storm-maker arrives Wednesday.  Unseasonably cold air dominates the Ohio Valley late week into next weekend with several chances of snow showers and hard freezes.  Have a nice evening – Sean Ash

Stormy Evening Ahead

Central Indiana remains under a Slight Risk for severe weather, but clouds may ultimately limit the overall coverage severe storms later today.

HEADLINES OHV TEMPS SPC THREAT LEVELS

A scattered line of storm in Illinois crosses into Indiana around 3pm and thus far only produced downpours, lightning and non-severe hail.  This line of storms moves across the Indy metro area between 4pm and 7pm.

4PM 6PM

At this time it seems unlikely the atmosphere destabilizes enough for widespread severe weather…. but localized damaging wind, large hail and/or a brief tornado remain possible until the front passes.

8PM

Storms exit the state by 10pm and the focus shifts to a transition to colder air.  After nearing 70 degrees today, highs Friday will be in the 50s.  A clipper-type system moves across the state Saturday to deliver blustery conditions and highs in the 45 to near 50 degree range.

11PMFrost will be widespread Sunday morning with lows in the 20s under a clear sky and light wind.  Showers return Monday and even colder air appears likely next week with a few days of highs in the 40s.  Stay weather aware this afternoon – Sean Ash

Rain And Storms Increasing With Severe Weather Potential Thursday

Clouds continue to thicken up across Central Indiana as scattered showers and storms move across the Illinois/Indiana state line.

HEADLINES

NOW 6PM

Showers increase area wide by sunset and heavy rain/storms become likely overnight into the Thursday morning.  Storms tonight should be below severe limits but definitely expect downpours, lightning and possibly some hail.

10PM THURSDAY MORNING

After a wet start tomorrow rain should exit the state by early afternoon.  It remains uncertain how much the atmosphere will be able to recover and destabilize before a cold front arrives Thursday afternoon.

SPC THREAT DEFINITION

But there’s an enhanced risk of severe storms if the indeed substantial recovery occurs for scattered severe storms to emerge by 5pm.  It’s also possible that cloud cover limits severe potential and heating.  It’s just too early to determine but we’re advising folks to stay weather aware tomorrow.

THURSDAY MIDDAY THURSDAY EVENING THURSDAY NIGHT

There’s much higher confidence on many backyards picking up another 1″ to 2″ of rainfall the next 36 hours.

RAIN POTENTIAL FRIDAY MORNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON

In the wake of the front tomorrow will be the first installment of colder air.  This sets the stage for highs in the lower 50s this weekend.  Even colder air could be in the mix next week when near-record lows will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday.  Have a good day – Sean Ash

7DAY

 

 

Chilly Night Followed By Bright Tuesday

It’s been quite a temperature tumble the past 24 hours.  From the mid-70s Easter Sunday afternoon… to a cloudier, chillier finish today in the 40s and 50s.  Most locations are easily more than 20 degrees colder than this time yesterday.

24HR CHANGE TEMPS

But even partial sunshine makes all the difference today with areas that are seeing some blue sky in the mid-50s.  This blanket of clouds peels away overnight to allow temperatures to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

TONIGHT HEADLINES LOWS TUESDAY

You’ll likely be scraping frost of the car Tuesday morning if you park outside.  Thankfully abundant sunshine quickly pushes temperatures into the 50s to near 60 degrees during a pleasant afternoon Tuesday.

HIGHS WED MORNING

Wednesday will be milder in the mid to upper 60s with increasing clouds during the afternoon.  Rain and storms become likely Wednesday night and possibly a few strong storms by sunrise Thursday.

WED AFTERNOON THURSDAY JET 1 JET 2

This marks a transition to a colder pattern to begin April.  Highs may struggle to hit 50 degrees Friday and Saturday with lows near or below freezing to begin the weekend.  There’s a possibility that snow may mix with rain showers Friday as the colder air arrives.

7DAY

 

 

Low Chance Of Severe Storms This Afternoon

The Storm Prediction Center upped the ante slightly for severe storms in Central Indiana today from Level 1 to an wider area of Level 2.

SPC DMA

I’m not convinced it materializes but with impressive wind dynamics in play from a strong area of low pressure in Illinois… it deserves our attention.

LIGHTNING

Our window for severe weather is narrow (2pm-7pm) and low… but a few warnings are possible.  Damaging wind gusts seem to be the main threat with any stronger storm that builds, but there is a non-zero tornado risk as well within the Level 2 zone.

THREAT LEVELS

2PM 4PM 6PM

The passage of a cold front around 6pm puts an end to the severe risk in the Indy metro area, but likely takes another hour or so to clear all of Indiana.  Colder, brisk conditions return tonight and deliver a more seasonable chill Friday.

Don’t forget to download the free Skytrak 13 Weather app to get warnings pushed to your phone – Sean Ash

Update On Heavy Rain And Gusty Storms Today

Periods of heavy rain and gusty storms are likely between now and 6pm.  Rainfall amounts end up in the 1″ to 2″ range before a cold front pushes the heaviest axis of moisture out of the state by sunset.

PLANNER TEMPS

The first of a few lines of heavy rain is now in the Indy metro area and there should be another developing after midday along a cold front.

2PM 4PM 6PM RAIN RPM

The severe storm risk is rather low today, but an isolated gust exceeding 56mph is possible in stronger cells embedded within multiple lines of storms.

SPC DMA SPC

Downpours and occasional lightning seem to be the most likely elements today.  Temperatures remain in the 60s before a shot of colder air tomorrow.  I’ll post an updated weekend outlook later this afternoon – Sean Ash

HEADLINES

 

Rain And Gusty Storms Likely Thursday

Despite the overcast, temperatures are still running several degrees above normal and most locations are in the 60s.  Central Indiana is definitely on the warm side of a rather impressive front.

TEMPS OHV RADAR

This boundary stretches all the way back to the Rockies where a full-blown blizzard is pounding Colorado.  Strengthening low pressure riding along the front is set drop a swath of heavy, wet snow from the Rockies to the Great Lakes and beyond.

WARNINGS SNOW

Snowfall amounts exceeding 18″ are very possible in the heaviest bands and could be maximized in northern Lower Michigan.  Please be advised if you’re traveling that way.

SNOW 2

Here at home we focus on the warm, stormier side of this system.  Rain and gusty storms increase heading into the Thursday morning commute.  Definitely check the radar before sending the kids to the bus stop in the morning.

MORNING PLANNER THURSDAY AFTENROON 12AM 8AM 1PM 5PM

It will be wet at times tomorrow and some of the storms may contain wind gusts nearing severe thresholds.  Though a few storm warnings are possible… at this time we don’t envision widespread severe weather.  But please download the free Skytrak 13 weather app for forecast updates and watches and warnings.

SPC DMA DAY 2

SPC OHV DAY 2

MODEL RAIN GRAPH MODEL HOURLY RAIN

Rain amounts should fall in the 1″ to 2″ range and occur mainly between 6am and 8pm Thursday.  The upside of the rain will be a one day drop off in the high levels of pollen.  Unfortunately it’s back to Sniffle City the rest of the week.

POLLEN FRIDAY MORNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON

After a brief shot of cooler air Friday, temperatures climb back into the 60s for Easter Weekend.  There’s still a chance of rain Sunday but considerable questions regarding arrival time.  However, Sunday night into Monday looks wet/blustery and possibly mixed with some snow.  Have a good evening – Sean Ash

7DAY

 

Warmer But Windy Tuesday

We’re enjoying a rather nice spring day in Central Indiana.  Sunshine mixing with clouds and seasonably cool air in the upper 50s and lower 50s.

TEMPS PLANNER EVENING PLANNER TOMORROW

Expect a nice evening ahead with brisk conditions developing overnight into the Tuesday morning commute.  Tomorrow will certainly be much warmer but considerably more windy with gusts approaching 40-45mph at times.

However the southwesterly wind direction pushes highs well into the 60s with a decent amount of sunshine.

HIGHS TOMORROW GUSTS GUSTS 2

Also a reminder that the statewide tornado drill occurs at 10:15am and 7:35pm.  Please take that time to review your weather safety plan at home and work.  Also have a way to get watches and warnings.  You can always follow the Skytrak 13 forecast online here or download our free app here.

TORNADO DRILL WED 6AM WED 330PM

Our next chance of rain and thunder arrives Wednesday evening into Thursday morning… but not before unseasonably warm highs in the 60s.  While we don’t expect severe weather due to the nocturnal timing, some heavy rain and thunder is likely.

THU 6A THU 1130A 7DAY

This is followed by a one-day cool shot Friday before highs warm back to near 60 degrees this weekend.  The verdict remains out on rain chances Easter Sunday with diverging model solutions at this time.  Check back for updates and have a nice evening – Sean Ash