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Jun
30

Latest On Damaging Wind Potential

Posted By · June 30, 2014 at 4:30 pm

Clouds have quickly thinned after the early day storms, and temperatures are quickly warming into the 80s.  Heat indices will near 90 degrees this afternoon in jungle-like humidity.

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All eyes remain focused on a damaging wind complex racing across Iowa into Illinois… eventually heading toward north-northwestern Indiana.  This complex has already produced numerous 70mph wind reports and damage as it accelerates to the east-northeast.  It appears the leading edge will near the northwestern corner of the state by9-10pm.  If it can overcome lack of daytime heating and atmospheric “cap” that will be building after dark, it would arrive in the Indy metro after midnight in a weakened state.

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Areas well north-northwest of Indianapolis have the greatest potential of wind damage, and a Tornado Watch may be issued for parts of the viewing area later this evening… though wind damage with downpours and lightning remain the main threats.

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It’s to be determined how far south and east its severe wind will survive the lack of daytime heating.  But we’re urging all viewers to remain weather aware until we can give the all clear.

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Tuesday looks to be a quieter weather day, though still warm and humid.  Widely scattered storms are possible in southeastern Indiana during the afternoon, and some of those could be strong to severe too… with damaging wind and hail as main threats .  But many remain dry Tuesday and lather up the sunscreen and dress in comfortable clothes if you’re heading down to the World Cup block party on Mass Ave in Indianapolis.

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We’re still on target for refreshing air to arrive Thursday morning and pave the way for a very nice 4th of July.  Stay safe this evening – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Jun
29

Hot Start To Week With Pleasant Air Arriving For Holiday

Posted By · June 29, 2014 at 4:31 pm

Our latest round of splash-and-dashers will continue to push east into Ohio and set much of central Indiana up for a relatively dry evening.  Dry in the precipitation sense, but the Muggy Meter remains sky high and oppressive with dew points in the 70s.

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As a result of the sticky air, air conditioners will continue to work overtime tonight into Monday.  Highs tomorrow will near or go above 90 degrees.  We’ve yet to hit that magical number this season thanks in large part to the wet June and abundant soil moisture that’s lead to high levels of evapotranspiration (humid air heats and cools slower than dry air).

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Much of Monday will be dry, but we’ll need to monitor a complex of severe storms in Illinois late tomorrow for local impact.

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Western and northwestern Indiana (including Lafayette and Peru) are under a Slight Risk for severe weather…primarily for late tomorrow.  But this is highly conditional on how long the aforementioned complex will hold together, and where it will track.  At this point I’m not overly optimistic this feature will have a high impact on the viewing area.

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It should be noted one potential outcome is for this feature to weaken before impacting the viewing area and the convective boundary setting south of the region Tuesday.  This would mean most would miss out on rain and storms.  It’s too early for a high level confidence on any given output though.

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However, we feel confident on a pleasant set up for the 4th of July thanks to a seasonably strong Canadian high pressure system.  You should notice a big difference in the air mass Wednesday, despite warm highs in the 80s.  Thursday and the 4th of July are about as good as it gets for July…with comfortable humidity and highs in the 70s!  The pleasant air should linger into the weekend though the air mass will modify and allow highs to get back into the 80s.

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Have a nice evening – Sean Ash

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Jun
24

Soggy and Stormy At Times This Afternoon

Posted By · June 24, 2014 at 11:41 am

Keep tabs on the radar the rest of today with flooding rain for some and the potential for localized damaging wind in stronger storms today.

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Areas of heavy rain and strong to possibly severe storms will increase as a disturbance pivots across central Indiana.  Tropical rain rates of 2-3″/hour are likely in heavier cells and total rainfall may exceed 1-2″ for some.  It appears the eastern half of the state has the greatest chance of damaging wind due to more unstable air.

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We’re sweating through another humid day with temperatures in the 70s at midday and lower 80s to finish.  Dew points remain tropical, which makes it the “air you can wear” and helps feed the downpours.

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The atmosphere settles down by 11pm this evening and sets the stage for a quite, but rather humid night.  Areas of dense fog are possible Wednesday morning.  Much of tomorrow will dry and warm.  Highs Wednesday will be back in the mid to upper 80s, with only an isolated chance of a late day shower or storm.

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The updated Skytrak13 seven day forecast shows a daily chance a shower or storm… but there will be more dry than wet hours and the focus shifts to hot air building into the weekend.  Expect upper 80s and lower 90s Saturday and Sunday with heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100.

Have a safe day – Sean Ash

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Jun
22

Funnel Cloud Sunday Evening In Howard County

Posted By · June 22, 2014 at 9:21 pm

A rain-cooled outflow boundary from early day storms in southern Indiana provided just enough directional wind shear in northern Indiana to produce a harmless funnel cloud shortly before 8pm Sunday evening near Kokomo.  Storm Prediction Center mesoanalyis shows low level instability (in red) overlapping locally maximized surface vorticity with the lone cell in Howard County (circled in black) at 7:45pm.

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Visible satellite also shows the low-topped (approximately 25-30,000feet) storm cloud that was relatively high based.  Being high based was one key factor in keeping the funnel aloft.

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Radar analysis (reflectivity on left and velocity on right) just prior to 8pm shows rather broad, weak rotation… but rotation nonetheless (green and red colors near each other).

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This microscale environment produced the funnel below that was witnessed by many in Howard County approximately around 7:50pm…along the US 31 Bypass

FUNNELHHGREGG (photo above courtesy of Alicia Hoover over H.H. Gregg’s on Markland)

GREENTOWN (photo above courtesy of Regina Carter near Greentown, IN along the US 31 Bypass between 7-7:3opm)

NEHOWARDCOUNTY(photo above courtesy of Susan Fisher NE Howard County around 7:45pm)

sharpsville(photo above via Sarah Hill Taylor 2 miles south of Sharpsville, IN at 7:50pm)

 

tipton(photo above courtesy of Jason Darts looking north from Tipton, IN)

CENTERROAD(photo above courtesy of Sharia Lawson Center Road & 931 in Kokomo around 8pm)

 

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Jun
22

Stuffy Sunday Heat With Isolated Storms Around

Posted By · June 22, 2014 at 3:20 pm

Good Sunday afternoon to you.  Our forecast is right on target today… with 3pm temperatures well into the mid and upper 80s and heat indices for some in the 90s.

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Right on cue with the daytime heating we’ve seen isolated heavy showers and occasional rumbles of thunder developing.  The focus has primarily been around Columbus, Hope and Greensburg.  But an outflow boundary (rain cooled from the storms) is lifting northward into central Johnson and Shelby counties and will likely trigger new cell development farther north.

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But as mentioned earlier these only be isolated and most won’t see a drop of rain today.  However if you’re under these pulse cells the rain will be torrential at times and dampen pool side plans for a bit until they rain themselves out.

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This sun-driven precipitation appropriately diminishes after dark and a quiet, but muggy night is expected.  Areas of locally dense for are likely Monday morning and especially in areas that see rain today.

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A new round of isolated to scattered storms are on the docket during daytime heating Monday… when highs near 90 degrees in many cities with heat indices in the upper 90s.

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Some of the storms will be locally strong if not producing severe wind gusts.  Stay weather aware both Monday and Tuesday which will be stormy and at times very wet.

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An area of low pressure will track along the I-70 corridor Tuesday and deliver widespread showers and heavy storms.  Between now and Wednesday some areas will see another one to two inches or more.  It’s already been a wet June as most cities have eclipsed the monthly average (4.25″ in Indianapolis) for rainfall already.

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If you’re looking for relief from the muggy air I’m afraid to say we’re in the long haul… with mid to upper 80s the next 7 days and beyond.  In fact long range indicators suggest a rather hot finish to June and beginning of July.  Confidence is growing on a prolonged stretch of 90s heading into the 4th of July holiday.  Stay tuned and have a great evening – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Jun
22

Warm Sunday With Only Isolated Rain Chance

Posted By · June 22, 2014 at 4:56 am

Get ready to sweat through another day of uncomfortable heat and humidity.  A disturbance creating heavy rain in the northeast corner of the state early this morning pushes east of Indiana by midday… offering very little to trigger redevelopment this afternoon.

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As temperatures climb into the mid to upper 80s the atmosphere will become highly unstable.  During peak heating in late afternoon and early evening isolated showers and storms will be possible.

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Morning temperatures are near 70 and as clouds thin we’ll see a quick rise into the 80s by midday.  Highs will range from 85 to near 90 with heat indices well into the 90s this afternoon.

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Much of Monday will also be dry before the next upper disturbance enters the region triggering clusters of strong to possibly severe storms during the evening.  This feature will also bring another round of scattered heavy storms Tuesday before departing in the middle of the week.

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The Skytrak13 seven day forecast shows mostly dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday before we’re back in scattered storm chances Friday and Saturday.  It’s been a wet June and it appears we’ll tack on another one to locally three inches or more this week.  Stay tuned for updates and have a great Sunday.

7DAY

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Jun
18

Isolated Showers Now With Severe Storm Potential Tonight

Posted By · June 18, 2014 at 1:38 pm
Isolated showers have developed over central Indiana, but many places stay just hot and dry during early afternoon.
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All eyes are on a complex of storms over northern Illinois that is showing a tendency to strengthen during daytime heating.  These storms may impact cities like Lafayette, Monticello, Peru and Marion later this afternoon if the storms can overcome limited lift.
UPDATE: Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for the northeast corner of Indiana… including the cities of Peru, Wabash and Huntington.
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Better odds for most of us arriving tonight and in the predawn hours of Thursday.  Much of the region is under a Slight Risk for severe weather and damaging wind will be the main severe threat…though lightning and downpours will accompany any storm.
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Multiple rounds of storms are anticipated tonight and early Thursday.  Thunder and lightning may keep many of you up tonight and we’ll be updating on air and on line.
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Rainfall will be feast or famine…with areas in the storm’s path receiving 1 to 2 inches and perhaps locally higher amounts.  But it should be noted some areas farther south and southwest may not see a drop of rain the next 24 hours.
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After a cloudy, damp start for some Thursday morning, we expect clouds to thin for midday sunshine.  This will allow temperatures to warm quickly and help scattered showers and storms to redevelop during the afternoon and evening with a 50% chance of getting wet tomorrow.
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In the Skytrak13 7 day forecast we’ve made some adjustments to the weekend outlook as the latest computer model guidance suggests there’s higher chance of dry weather than rain.  Stay weather aware today and we encourage you to download the Skytrak13 Weather app to stay updated.  Have a great day – Sean Ash
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Jun
16

Hottest Air In Over Nine Months Arrives Tuesday

Posted By · June 16, 2014 at 1:58 pm

While not everyone will see rain or storms today, some areas will see locally heavy downpours and frequent lightning.  Where it’s not raining and the sun is out temperatures will warm quickly into the 80s.

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The Muggy Meter will be in the oppressive range and make for uncomfortable conditions, as dew points hover around 70 degrees or higher the rest of the week.

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Don’t cancel any plans this afternoon or evening but keep tabs on Live Doppler 13 with isolated chance of a storms or shower moving overhead.

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Any precipitation is driven by daytime heating and will quickly diminish after sunset.  Prepare to sweat it out early Tuesday, with muggy morning lows in the 70s.

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Elevated humidity teams up with our hottest air of the year Tuesday and Wednesday to produce heat indices near triple digits at times.  This will be the first 90 degree day in Indianapolis in over 9 months but comes near the climatological average for the first 90 degree day of the season (June 14th).

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Within the “hot dome” central Indiana will essentially be rain-free after today, but vigorous storms will erupt on the edge of the “capped” atmosphere to our north and northeast… where severe storms will be likely the next three days.  This is is similar to steam spewing out around the edges of “capped” saucer of boiling water on the stove.

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An outbreak of severe storms, including strong tornado potential, in the upper Mississippi River Valley on the nose of a warm air advection.  This complex will ride northeastward through the western Great Lakes.

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By Wednesday the risk of severe storms flirts with our far northern viewing area, and storm chances return Wednesday night into Thursday.

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There will be a daily chance of rain and storms heading into the weekend.  We may have to wait until Sunday evening for relief from the stuffy air.  Have a great day – Sean Ash

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