Storms are firing up around Central Indiana and will deliver torrential rain along their path. Flash flooding rain rates of 1-2″ per hour and lightning remain the most likely threats with storms today, but extreme instability keeps all of the viewing area in a Level 2 (on a scale of 1-5) risk today. Severe wind gusts and/or hail are possible before 8pm so please have a way to get watches and warnings.
You’ll also notice oppressively humid conditions today and that remains a part of the evening forecast. Heat indices are near 100 degrees in easily the most uncomfortable day this year thus far. Oppressively humid today but the Muggy Meter gets comfortable Friday morning and stays there for a couple of days.
The threat of severe weather, and storms in general, quickly diminishes after sunset and quieter times are ahead. Areas of fog are possible overnight and early Thursday morning. It won’t be as muggy tomorrow but still humid and warm in Central Indiana with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Noticeably cooler highs in the 70s are likely in North Central Indiana where are refreshing northerly wind takes shape and less sunshine.
Friday looks fantastic with comfortably warm highs in the low to mid 80s with sunshine. Father’s Day weekend features sunshine and highs near 90 both days. Stay weather aware this evening friends – Sean Ash
Finally getting some dry time after the wettest day overall in Central Indiana since May 1st. Much of the Indy metro area had over an inch of rain and there were a few reports of three to four inches locally.
Areas of dense fog may be develop overnight as a result and we’ll likely see more showers and storms arriving by sunrise from Illinois.
Activity in the morning likely produces downpours and lightning. The exit time of morning activity plays a key role in severe chances Wednesday afternoon.
Tropical moisture makes for uncomfortable conditions Wednesday as the Muggy Meter hits oppressive levels of humidity. If temperatures can achieve the upper 80s/lower 90s this moisture helps increase instability for severe storms too.
At the time of this posting we’re only expecting isolated storms in the afternoon and early evening… but they will still pose a damaging wind and/or hail threat.
The risk of severe weather quickly ends before 10pm tomorrow and we’ll begin Thursday rain-free. An impressive upper disturbance pivoting across the Ohio Valley late Thursday afternoon keeps isolated showers and storms in play.
We continue to advertise a sunny Father’s Day weekend. Highs Saturday will be in the mid-80s and then climb back into the 90s for Father’s Day. Long range indicators suggest another stormy pattern setting up over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley this time next week. Check back for radar updates – Sean Ash
Central Indiana continues to battle areas of heavy rain and locally strong storms. Many rain gauges around the Indy metro area picked up nearly 2″ totals and a whopping 3.14″ reported near Monument Circle.
Areal Flood Advisories are up for portions of southern Indiana that received 2″ to 3″ of rainfall in three hours.
Between now and Wednesday afternoon there will be a few more waves of heavy storms to deal with it. If temperatures can warm to near 90 degrees tomorrow some of the storms may become severe during peak heating… with damaging wind the main threat.
But any storms, or showers for that matter, likely deliver heavy rain rates due to high levels of moisture in the atmosphere. Severe weather tomorrow hinges on how much coverage of storms, cloud cover and fog we begin. Less of those means a better chance of realizing the Level 2 risk.
A drier pattern emerges late week though isolated showers are possible late Thursday afternoon. We continue to advertise a sunny Father’s Day weekend. Highs Saturday will be in the mid-80s and then climb back into the 90s for Father’s Day.
Not as humid today but equally as bright with hot highs near 90 degrees. The only complaint is the poor air quality due to high levels of ozone. An Air Quality Alert remains in effect for the Indy metro area plus surrounding counties as well as Bloomington and Seymour.
Expect a pleasant evening but we’ll be monitoring central Illinois for potential storm development that could arrive here toward midnight.
Otherwise the next chance of showers and storms begins around sunrise in Central Indiana. Though coverage won’t be widespread tomorrow, any storms that develop likely deliver heavy rain, lightning and possibly severe wind.
Increasing tropical moisture leads to oppressively humid conditions Wednesday and this feeds heavy storms too. Greater instability ups the ante for strong or severe storms Wednesday with damaging wind being the primary threat at this point.
After Wednesday rain chances go down and the pattern late week into the weekend looks dry. In fact we’ll have another shot of comfortable arriving Thursday night into Friday morning and this paves the way for sunshine and highs in the lower 80s to begin the weekend.
Heat builds late weekend with highs nearing 90 degrees Sunday and likely going back into the 90s a week from now. Have a great evening – Sean Ash
TGIF! While hot air and hazy temperatures dominate the forecast story over the next four days… we’re monitoring a cluster of storms that will southeastward from around Chicagoland into Ohio.
Currently it appears the greatest coverage of heavy rain and storms will stay just north and east of the Indianapolis metro area. But a few showers or rumble of thunder remain possible along the I-70 corridor this morning.
For those living along a line from Kokomo, Muncie to Richmond it’s fair game for downpours until around 10am. There’s only a slight chance of redevelopment later today with hottest day of the year being the bigger story. Highs in the 90 to 95 degree range mark our hottest day since early September.
This marks the beginning of a potential five day stretch of highs at or above 90 degrees. There will be another opportunity of hit and miss storms Saturday evening but much of the weekend is just hot.
A more unsettled weather pattern arrives during the middle of next week when storm chances climb Tuesday afternoon. Have a great weekend and find a way to beat the heat – Sean Ash
Good Thursday morning Central Indiana. Another pleasantly cool start in the upper 40s and 50s as comfortable air continues to hang on for a few more hours. Mid-level clouds increase some heading into midday but we’re expecting a mainly dry and warmer day in the 80s.
It’s going to be a great day to get down to Monument Circle for the Annual Strawberry Festival and this evening for The Caroline Symmes Celebrity Softball Challenge at Victory Field. Weather should cooperate nicely for both great events.
Late this evening and overnight storms will increase along a warm front moving across central and northern Indiana. Based on current positioning of the front… it’s possible that areas south of I-70 may not see much rain/storms at all.
While the greatest coverage looks to target areas north and east of Indianapolis. So don’t be surprised to hear some loud rumbles of thunder while you’re sleeping and early Friday morning.
As the front sets up along the Michiana border tomorrow… our local atmosphere will be mostly “capped off” with a layer of hot air. So other than an isolated late day storm, Friday-Monday will be mainly just hazy, hot and humid with highs well into the 90s and heat indices of 95 to near 100.
This will easily be our hottest stretch of days since early September before a stormier pattern looks to emerge by the middle of next week. Have a great day – Sean Ash
It appears the National Weather Service in Indianapolis will be sending a survey crew out to Johnson County sometime Monday to determine if the crop and tree damage you see below was caused by a tornado.
Lance Fischer lives along SR 135 in Franklin and tweeted the photos to me Sunday afternoon and explained it happened during the storms Saturday. If you look closely at the crop pictures you can see a swath in the grain that is flattened.
Radar imagery from 4:15pm Saturday shows an approaching quasi-stationary convective linear system… or QLCS in the meteorology field. Many tornadoes in Indiana occur from mesovortices that occur within waves embedded along the line of storms, also known as line echo wave patterns.
Thanks to Twitter follower @Hoosier_Charlie we can actually see several radar velocity scans of gate-to-gate wind shear moving over Lance’s farm in southern Johnson County. This signature is strong enough, combined with the crop photos, to suggest a quick tornado… and similar to what would late occur along the line in Wayne County.
It’s a pleasant finish to what’s been an unsettled weekend. We’re now enjoying a refreshing breeze with a mix of clouds and comfortable temperatures in the 70s at this time.
A lowering Muggy Meter stays comfortable most of the next five days. Meaning you can give the A/Cs a break, open the windows, and air-out the house.
The pleasant breeze continues tonight and will be stronger tomorrow with gusts nearing 30mph during peak heating. Highs soar back into the 80s with plenty of sunshine Monday.
There’s a threat of scattered strong to severe storms late Monday afternoon as a cold front moves into the region. Though chances are low… stay weather aware tomorrow until the front sweeps through the state to pave the way for seasonably cool air mid-week.
A refreshing northwesterly breeze keeps temperatures below normal Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the lower 70s. This shot of cooler air is short in nature and enjoy while you can.
Confidence is high on the hottest air of the year arriving Friday into next weekend… when 90s appear likely for the first time since early September. Have a great evening – Sean Ash
The National Weather Service Office in Wilmington, OH confirms a tornado from Saturday evening near Richmond. Time of touchdown is estimated at 6:24pm with a maximum wind of 85mph and a path length just over one mile.
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
156 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016
...Tornado Confirmed Near Richmond in Wayne County Indiana...
Location...Near Richmond in Wayne County Indiana
Date...June 4 2016
Estimated Time...6:24PM EDT
Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF0
Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...85 mph
Maximum Path Width...150 yds
Path Length...1.25 miles
Beginning Lat/Lon...39.88N / 84.96W
Ending Lat/Lon...39.89N / 84.94W
YouTube video from Jamey Miller captured the tornado in Webster and you can clearly see it crossing 4000 block of N. Round Barn Road of US Highway 35.
Here are some damage pictures courtesy of Michele Webb of Round Barn Road.
Thankfully no injuries reported with this tornado that had a maximum width of 150 yards and on the ground for just a few minutes. Here’s the full report from the NWS office in Wilmington, OH. http://www.weather.gov/iln/20160604_Richmond
As expected spotty showers and a few rumbles of thunder developed in unstable air over Central Indiana. While most backyards stay dry today, some will have to work around splash-and-dashers before 6pm… with a low possibility of a severe storm around the Indiana/Ohio border.
Pleasant conditions prevail this evening, overnight and a good portion of Monday. Expect a breezy day tomorrow with gusts nearing 30mph and highs jumping back into the 80s. An approaching front triggers scattered storms late Monday afternoon and a few may near severe wind limits.
From 80s tomorrow to lower 70s Tuesday with a refreshing northwesterly breeze keeping temperatures below normal. Wednesday is looking fantastic with sunshine and 70s.
We continue to advertise the hottest air of the year arriving next weekend with highs likely climbing into the 90s for the first time since early September. Have a great day – Sean Ash