We’ve had this is in our forecast since Monday, and now have had reports of small hail with lightning in stronger cells that have developed within the past hour. The much colder air aloft combined with spin around an upper level low overhead may produce some cold-air funnels too. This rarely ever reach the ground but can be a bit alarming to the untrained eye. The best chance of seeing one will likely be on the eastern and southeastern half of the state today.
Showers and storms diminish quickly toward sunset as the upper low pivots south of the Ohio River. This paves the way for a pleasant weekend warm up that will see temperatures rise into the 70s for highs. We’ll post an updated long range forecast shortly as it appears the first week of May will be in the 80s!
Another nice day across Central Indiana with a mix of sun and clouds. There’s just a slight sprinkle chance in the southeastern half of the state this evening… but most areas should enjoy ideal spring conditions.
Visible satellite shows the cloud deck over Indy and points east and southeast, but our cameras in Crawfordsville and Bunker Hill show a much brighter sky. This is likely due to a weak atmospheric trough that’s enlongated from southwest to northeast over Indiana.
We’re expecting a nice night at Victory Field as the Indianapolis Indians return home. Shower chances due creep up after midnight as energy around a well advertised upper level storm system arrives. This feature brings much colder conditions to the area Thursday.
Highs struggle into the mid-50s. Though there may be a period of sun late morning… much of the day will be mostly cloudy with areas of showers, thunder and possibly small hail in heavier storms during late afternoon.
There’s also a small possibility of cold air funnels under this low. This is due to the spin around this system and the instability from a rather large temperature difference between the surface and mid-levels of the atmosphere. Here’s a more detailed explanation of this phenomena.
It will be a one day cool down as highs return to the upper 60s Friday and 70s this weekend! Our initial 500 Festival Indianapolis Mini-Marathon has changed very little. Temperatures will be near 50 degrees when the first wave begins. The biggest change is what appears residual cloud cover from a weakening system. So sun may be limited for the first few hours of the day… which is preferable for most runners. Midday temperatures climb into the mid-60s and afternoon highs in the 70s.
Saturday evening should also remain pleasant for the Rev Indy Event at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway with comfortable temperatures in the 60s. A few showers are possible Sunday morning for Opening Day at IMS… but chances are low and temperatures should quickly warm into the 70s during the afternoon with hazy sunshine as clouds thin.
Highs near 80 degrees for several days next week with slight rain/storm chances until Wednesday. We’ll continue to update the weekend forecast so please check back for the latest – Sean Ash
What a day in Central Indiana! Hardly a cloud in the sky, temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s, comfortable dew points in the 30s, and refreshing breeze from the northeast! Can you tell I’m excited about today? Hopefully you’ve had a chance to soak up the sunshine and pleasant air.
Allergy sufferers I realize can’t be too pleased with the high pollen levels. That’s something that continues for several more days and well into next week. All is quiet this evening and tonight with a clear sky and light wind.
Tonight and Wednesday: Lows tonight will be mainly in the 40s, with low-lying areas briefly dipping into the 30s by sunrise Wednesday. Tomorrow features another sunny start with an increase in cloud cover during the afternoon. An approaching upper level low that we’ve discussed brings a chance of spotty showers toward sunset. However, the greater chances of precipitation likely don’t arrive until after the finish of the Indianapolis Indians home return at Victory Field Wednesday evening.
Thursday: The cold-core low brings a good deal of cloudiness, areas of showers, some localized downpours/thunder… plus the possibility of small hail and cold-air funnels that I addressed in this blog Monday afternoon. Expect raw conditions with temperatures struggling to reach the mid-50s. Areas that see any sunshine will have the higher chance of hearing thunder and seeing small hail. This is the biggest fly in the ointment preceding the well advertised weekend warm up.
Friday and Mini-Marathon Saturday: We’re back to mostly sunny conditions Friday with in the mid to upper 60s. Our latest 500 Festival Indy Mini-Marathon forecast hasn’t changed much. Race time temperatures around 8am will be near 50 degrees and gradually warming into the mid-60s by 12-1pm. The combination of a light wind and comfortable dew points in the 40s should contribute to good times… providing this forecast holds.
We’re still advertising pleasant conditions too for the Rev Indy event Saturday evening.
Please check back as we’ll update this forecast frequently between now and race time.
The long range pattern supports the notion of above to much above normal warmth arriving this weekend and lasting for much of next week. Though it should be noted the warmer pattern may included bouts of showers and storms too. Highs may climb into the 80s next week depending on cloud cover and coverage of precipitation.
It’s possible given the modeled location of a potent upper low spinning overhead. The cold-core associated with this feature produces a strong differential in temperatures from the surface (low/mid 50s) to mid-levels of the atmosphere (-10° to -15°F). This makes the atmosphere unstable with low freezing levels. Stronger cells that emerge under the low could produce small hail showers.
The combination of the instability and vorticity around the cold-core low could also trigger cold air funnels. They’re typically harmless, but are eye-catching. Let’s keep an eye on this as the week progresses. Here’s more about cold air funnels: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/
Sunshine gives way to scattered clouds this afternoon as the expected cumulus builds and spreads southward again.
Areas farther north of I-70 will have a higher percentage of clouds in the sky, while areas farther south see more sunshine. The difference in clouds cover will be the difference in the about 10 degrees on daytime highs… with mid-50s north and mid-60s south. In the middle Indianapolis likely tops out in the upper 50s.
There’s a slight chance of very spotty instability sprinkles/showers during peak heating… especially east and northeast of Indy.
Expect another breezy afternoon with northerly wind speeds of 15-30mph that will keep highs mainly in the 50s. The breeze and cloud cover toward sunset and we’re in store for another seasonably chilly night in the mid-30s.
Tuesday will be very similar to today. Morning sun, afternoon clouds and becoming breezy with highs near 60 degrees. An upper level system nears the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Thursday. This feature brings an increase in cloud cover Wednesday and scattered showers/storms Thursday as it intensifies before heading toward the east coast later in the week.
The speed of its departure will be key to the extended forecast and impact how quickly temperatures warm heading into this weekend. At this time we’re keeping Friday in the upper 60s and Saturday in the lower to mid 70s. Our forecast for the Indy Mini-Marathon and Rev Indy Event remains dry… but subject to change being this far out.
Increasing moisture, daytime heating and weak front bring scattered storm chances to Central Indiana Sunday and Monday with warm highs in the 70s. Check back for updates – Sean Ash
What a difference 24 hours can make! From chilly showers and storms Saturday to sunshine and a pleasant afternoon today.
The brighter sky leads to temperatures 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Saturday. A stiff breeze continues to blow across the region and will be part of the forecast tonight into Monday. Despite lows tonight dropping into the middle 30s… the breeze should be enough to prevent widespread frost from developing. However, patchy frost is possible in low-lying areas and any place the wind may diminish.
We’ll make to a blue sky Monday and see temperatures jump into the 50s by midday. Highs near 60 degrees during late afternoon with scattered cumulus clouds developing once again during peak heating. A northwest wind tomorrow will make it feel cooler, but overall it should be a near carbon copy of today.
Quiet weather continues much of the week as an area of low pressure should bypass us to the south…though it likely delivers more extensive cloud cover on Wednesday. Warm air spreads eastward and delivers highs in the 70s next weekend with hazy sunshine. This is perfect timing for the 500 Festival Indianapolis Mini-Marathon next Saturday and the Rev Indy Event at IMS Saturday evening. We’ll fine tune both event forecasts as the week progresses.
Long range indicators suggest this pattern change may stick for awhile and lead to prolonged above normal warmth in the 6 to 14 day period. Have a great evening – Sean Ash
As anticipated rain and locally heavy storms have expanded across all of Central Indiana. While no severe is expected for most of the region… lightning, small hail and downpours are likely. The steadiest and heaviest rain will occur between midday and 4-5pm. The upside to the soggy Saturday is how it keeps much of Central Indiana out of severe storm potential.
The remains a low possibility for the far southern viewing area, including Seymour and Bedford, that a few storms may approach severe levels late this afternoon. However, we continue to target the region of southern Illinois, the southwestern corner of Indiana, and south-central Kentucky for highest odds of very large hail, damaging wind and possibly a few tornadoes.
Short-range hi-resolution model data supports this notion within a region that will be along/south of a warm front and within moderately to highly unstable air mass. Locally… rain and thunder diminish a great deal by 6pm and despite extensive overcast, precipitation will be less organized and lighter for evening hours.
Clouds gradually clear overnight and temperatures return to the upper 30s and lower 40s for a colder tomorrow.
We’re back to sunshine on Sunday. It will be bright and breezy to finish the weekend and it also marks a trend toward a drier weather pattern. Long range guidance continues to suggest a prolonged period of quiet weather, and possibly much warmer conditions to begin the month of May. If this holds we could be talking mid to upper 70s next Saturday afternoon! Stay tuned for updates – Sean Ash
Good Saturday morning Central Indiana! As advertised all week long, rain and areas of heavy storms will be widespread from sunrise to this afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be the in 1-2″ range with locally higher totals in heavier storms.
Our rain/storm maker is an area of low pressure that’s centered between Omaha and Kansas City this morning… delivering an influx of moisture on its eastern side.
Much of the region will be well north of a warm front that becomes situated along the Ohio River. Early day rain, extensive cloud cover and temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s keep this region fairly stable.
We believe the greatest threat of for supercells and severe storms will be along and south of the Ohio River… with a potential bulls-eye in southcentral Kentucky.
However… we’ll need to monitor areas along and especially south of a line from Bloomington to Columbus for severe storm potential this afternoon. Its closer proximity to the aforementioned front puts supercell storms in play, with a threat for very large hail and possibly tornadoes. Stay weather aware in this region and we’ll update the situation later today. Currently it’s a 15% probability within 25 miles of a point for large hail/damaging wind and a 2% probability of a tornado in our southern viewing area.
Rain coverage diminishes late afternoon and during the evening, though cloud cover and areas of light showers/drizzle likely linger to near midnight. Temperatures cool into the 30s tonight and near 60 for highs on Sunday.
We continue to advertise a quiet, warming weather pattern next week that’s trending toward low to mid 70s to begin the month of May! Let’s hope that holds – Sean Ash