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Jan
04

Slick Travel Tonight And Heavier Snow On The Way

Posted By · January 4, 2015 at 5:36 pm

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for north  central Indiana Monday Evening-Tuesday Morning.  More on the first significant snow of the season in a moment.  We’ve got to deal with deteriorating road conditions this evening due to falling temperatures and wind-whipped snow showers.

WINTER STORM WATCH PLANNER EVENING

Heavier bursts continue to drop quick coatings to a half-inch in spots.  With temperatures dropping into the the teens and single digits overnight expect slick travel heading into the Monday morning commute.

LOWS TONIGHT PLANNER MONDAY

Also expect a biting northwest wind to put quite a sting in the air.  Morning wind chills will be below zero and the early morning sunshine will be deceiving.

MONDAY 4PM MONDAY 9PM

This is just an appetizer to the main snow course heading our way Monday night.  Snow should begin after 6-7pm and quickly ramp up by midnight.  The timing, cold temperatures, moderate to heavy snowfall rates and amounts up to 6″ for some… all spell trouble for the morning commute Tuesday.

TUESDAY 1AM TUESDAY 6AM TUESDAY 10AM SNOWFALL SNOWFALL 2

Positioning and amounts are subject to change… but our latest snowfall forecast is 2-4″ for most of the Indy metro area, 4-6″+ along/north of a line from Crawfordsville, Noblesville, New Castle to Economy.  Amounts quickly drop heading southward of I-74 with 1-2″ forecast for Bloomington/Columbus and 1″ or less for Seymour/Bedford.  The track of the system remains uncertain and could easily change the next 24 hours.  Check back for updates.

HEADLINES PLANNER TUESDAY TEMPS WEDNESDAY

The snow is followed by dangerously cold air with sub-zero lows Wednesday/Thursday and wind chills of -20 to -30.  Expect Wind Chill Warnings by mid-week and potentially some snow squalls/lake effect bands as the bitter air glides over Lake Michigan.  Bottom-line… roads likely remain messy well after this initial system departs due to the cold.

PLANNER WEDNESDAY HEADLINES 2 7DAY

Stay safe and don’t forget to download the Skytrak13 Weather app for the latest text and video forecast (http://www.wthr.com/category/225686/wthr-skytrak-weather-app) – Sean Ash

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Jan
01

Coldest Year In Indianapolis Since 1963

Posted By · January 1, 2015 at 5:01 pm

Feeding off of the coldest winter since the 1970s, the average temperature of 50.2 degrees in 2014 ties for 3rd coldest on record in Indianapolis… and marks the coldest in over 50 years.

YEARLY TEMPS

However, December 2014 finished above normal and tied for the 4th least snowiest December on record for the city.  It’s been a slow snow season thus far with under 3″ total and 6″ below normal.  There is some accumulating snow potential next week but far from a given thus far.

SNOW SEASON

Not a shabby way to begin 2015… bright and at times blustery.  Highs climbed into the lower and mid 30s and you can expect seasonably cold conditions the next 24 hours.  Tonight lows drop into the lower and mid 20s with wind chills in the teens.  Chilly, but not as bitter as last night.

TEMP TREND TONIGHT

High clouds increase overnight and we’re expecting mostly overcast Friday.  Despite the lack of sun, temperatures should again return to the mid 30s tomorrow.  Though cloud cover will be ominous at times, much of tomorrow should be dry with slight chances of flurries or light snow late in the day.

PLANNER FRIDAY RPM 1 RPM 4AM

We’re still on target for a period of freezing rain Friday night (after sunset) into Saturday morning.  It’s possible it could be enough to cause slick travel and warrant a Freezing Rain Advisory.  After sunrise Saturday (though we won’t see any sun) temperatures climb above freezing and it becomes just cold, steady and heavy rain.  Rain amounts of a half-inch to an inch are likely and we wouldn’t be stunned to hear some thunder Saturday evening and night… as temperatures warm to near 50 and lift is maximized by the approaching storm system.

RPM 6AM SATURDAY RPM 9AM SATURDAY RPM 2PM SATURDAY

Rain amounts of a half-inch to an inch are likely and we wouldn’t be stunned to hear some thunder Saturday evening and night… as temperatures warm to near 50 and lift is maximized by the approaching storm system.

RPM RAIN PLANNER SATURDAY HEADLINES

After a relatively balmy start early Sunday morning, colder air quickly returns Sunday afternoon.  Colts fans can expect wind-whipped snow showers and temps in the 20s heading home from Lucas Oil.

RPM 5AM SUNDAY TEMPS SUNDAY TEMPS SUNDAY 6PM PLANNER COLTS

The coldest air yet appears likely the middle of next week when lows may flirt with zero and highs in the low to mid teens.  Check back for updates on the freezing rain potential – Sean Ash

JET PATTERN 7DAY

 

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Dec
31

Coldest New Year’s Eve In Over 15 Years

Posted By · December 31, 2014 at 4:48 pm

Central Indiana wraps up its 2014 with its coldest New Year’s Eve since 1998.  Despite the bright sky, high temperatures in the lower and middle 20s are closer to the average low (21 degrees) for this date.  Thankfully no wintry precipitation to impact holiday travel, but breezy conditions produce midnight wind chills near zero.

TEMP TREND

PLANNER NEW YEARS EVE

2014 goes down as one of the coldest years on record for Indianapolis.  With an average daily temperature of 50.2 degrees (not including the below normal of today) ranks 3rd coldest on record… and will be the coldest year in nearly a century.

2014 PLANNER NEW YEARS DAY

Expect clear conditions when 2015 arrives with lows overnight in the middle teens.  New Year’s Day features sunshine, a stiff breeze and afternoon highs in the lower 30s tomorrow.  Quiet, albeit cloudy, conditions prevail into Friday too.  But we continue to analyze an upcoming system that plays a significant role to our weekend.

HIGHS THURSDAY HIGHS SATURDAY RPM FRIDAY 7AM RPM FRIDAY 7PM

Mixed winter precipitation is possible as early as 1-2am Saturday morning.  It’s possible it could precipitate heavy enough at the onset to cause some slick spots.  Eventually this transitions into freezing rain/rain prior to midday… before becoming just a cold, steady rain much of Saturday.  It will be a rather soggy day with rain amounts possibly approaching an inch in some locations.  Temperatures slowly climb into the upper 30s before colder air and snow chances return Sunday.

RPM SATURDAY 6AM RPM SATURDAY 4PM RPM SATURDAY 8PM RPM SUNDAY 1AM HEADLINES SATURDAY

Though we don’t anticipate accumulation locally Sunday… you can expect blustery conditions with falling temperatures into the 20s and a good chance of snow showers for Colts tailgating.  Have a safe evening and happy New Year’s – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Dec
30

Coldest Night In Nearly 10 Months

Posted By · December 30, 2014 at 4:32 pm

The much advertised Arctic air is here and with it comes some flurries and snow showers early this evening.  Temperatures will steadily drop as clouds clear… eventually reaching the lowest levels we’ve seen since early March.

PIC 2

Some of the showers were heavy enough to coat the ground around Howard County.  It’s mainly a novelty for most, but a few slick spots are possible with temperatures well below freezing now.

PIC PLANNER EVENING HEADLINES

Lows tonight range from 5 (north) to 15 (far south) with wind chills 5 below to 5 above.  Bright, and at times blustery, conditions to be expected for the final day of 2014.  Despite a good dose of sunshine, high temperatures struggle to hit 20 degrees in many backyards.  This is a pretty impressive feat without a snow pack… even for late December.  Indianapolis dropped to 9 above back on November 18th, but that occurred with a 1″ snow depth.

LOWS TONIGHT PLANNER TOMRROW HIGHS TOMORROW

New Year’s Eve thankfully will be storm-free in the Ohio Valley, but will require several layers if you’re outside.  Midnight temperatures will be in the mid-teens and wind chills near zero.

PLANNER NEW YEARS EVE PLANNER NEW YEARS DAY

Sunshine and seasonably cold temperatures near 30 usher in 2015 in Central Indiana.  New Year’s Day will be quiet locally but a system in the southwestern U.S. eventually pushes moisture back into the state.

RPM HEADLINES SATURDAY

With cold air trapped at the surface, precipitation Friday night-Saturday morning likely begins as a wintry mix/freezing rain.  It may be heavy at times Saturday morning before transitioning to a cold rain.  Saturday looks sloppy and wet.  Keep in mind the forecast is highly changeable this far out.  Colder air and snow showers return for Colts tailgating Sunday.  Early indications for next week suggest a even colder pattern.  Stay tuned – Sean Ash

7DAY

 

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Dec
29

Frigid Finish To 2014

Posted By · December 29, 2014 at 4:46 pm

Much of Central Indiana enjoyed a decent December day with a mix of sun and clouds.  This will likely be one of our warmer days this week with much colder air set to arrive and finish off 2014.

PLANNER EVENING LOWS TONIGHT PLANNER TUESDAY

Cloud cover will vary from mostly cloudy to mostly clear tonight.  This creates a tough temperature forecast overnight. Areas that don’t clear likely remain in the upper 20s, and places that clear will be near 20 degrees for lows.  Wind chill values area wide will be in the 10-15 degree range Tuesday morning.

HIGHS TOMORROW RPM TUESDAY 4PM

The advertised Arctic front is set to arrive during the day tomorrow and will be accompanied by clouds, blustery conditions and possibly some flurries.  Daytime highs struggle to hit 30 degrees and we’ll only get colder heading in New Year’s Eve Day.

RPM WEDNESDAY PLANNER WEDNESDAY

Lows Wednesday drop into the lower teens with wind chills near zero.  The last day of 2014 will be bright, but unseasonably cold in with highs in the lower 20s.  Dress warmly if you’re going to be out celebrating the New Year’s but expect clear conditions.

PLANNER WEDNESDAY NIGHT RPM THURSDAY RPM NEW YEARS

New Year’s Day will be sunny but cold in the morning with highs slowly warming into the upper 20s.  We’re still monitoring wintry weather potential for this weekend, but it remains a low confidence forecast with significant model divergence.  Check back for updates.

7DAY

 

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Dec
28

Colder Air Coming To Finish 2014

Posted By · December 28, 2014 at 5:46 pm

December is one of the cloudier months in Indianapolis and this weekend definitely played the role.  Thankfully the gray sky had more bark than bite today, but did keep temperatures chilly in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

TEMPS KOKOMO

Cloud cover will partially break overnight and in fact we’re seeing this already on our WeatherBug camera in Kokomo.  The lack of insulation allows temperatures to drop into the lower 20s Monday morning with frost very likely.  Due to the quick drop overnight we can’t rule out some slick spots Monday morning if any fog develops.  Otherwise we’ll at least see some partial sunshine tomorrow with seasonably cold highs in the mid-30s.

LOWS TONIGHT PLANNER MONDAY MORNING HIGHS TOMORROW PLANNER MONDAY AFTERNOON

We’re still anticipating an Arctic front to pass through the region Tuesday… bringing a return of clouds and possibly areas of flurries/snow showers as the cold air advects into the state.

Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees colder than normal New Year’s Eve day with “highs” in the lower 20s despite some decent sunshine.  It looks cold, but quiet when 2015 arrives Wednesday night with low temperatures dropping into the lower teens.

TUESDAY SET UP WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY 5PM HIGHS WEDNESDAY 7DAY

New Year’s Day features sunshine and high temperatures near 30 degrees.  All long range model guidance shows moisture returning to the Ohio Valley Friday afternoon into next weekend.  All precipitation types are in play, but atmospheric temperature profiles this far out are suspect to big changes.  A few degrees next weekend might mean the difference from a cold rain or a wintry mix.  Check back for updates.

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Dec
19

Chilly Start To Weekend And Latest On Hopes Of White Christmas

Posted By · December 19, 2014 at 4:45 pm

For the 7th straight day much of central Indiana is stuck overcast, though some lucky souls in southwestern parts of the state did see some blue.

BLOOMFIELD

But the above scene in Greene County was the exception and not the rule, and scattered flurries remain possible this evening and overnight under the low cloudiness holding firm and expanding.

KOKOMO INDY 1KM VISIBLE PLANNER EVENING SATRAD

Saturday:  A quick-moving disturbance, currently in the central US, passes overhead tomorrow and triggers flurries and areas of light snow.  This also keeps the sky cloudy and prevents temperatures from warming much above 30 degrees.  With some clearing possible Saturday evening we’ll need to monitor conditions for patchy freezing fog/drizzle.

RPM SATURDAY 7AM PLANNER SATURDAY RPM SATURDAY 4PM RPM SUNDAY 7AM

Sunday:  But the highlight Sunday will be temperatures warming into the upper 30s with prospects of at least partial sunshine.  Temperatures continue to warm early next week in advance of the well advertised Christmas Eve Day storm.

PLANNER SUNDAY RPM SUNDAY 5PM SNOW STATS

It’s been a rather wimpy start to the snow season, and Indianapolis has only recorded a tenth of an inch this month.  Computer model guidance continues to keep hopes alive for a White Christmas in central Indiana.  But there remains serious questions for snow specifics due to the fact we’re addressing energy that hasn’t come onshore yet.

HEADLINES

Early Next Week:  Expect highs in the 40s Monday with rain arriving during the afternoon.  Rain becomes widespread during a rather soggy, albeit warmer, Tuesday.  That’s when temperatures warm into the mid and upper 40s on the eastern side (warmer, southeasterly-southerly wind side) of the expected low pressure system.  It will be a complicated evolution of two separate upper pieces of energy merging, or phasing, to create rapid intensification (or deepening) of low pressure.  Where this phasing and resultant intensification occurs remains to be determined… and ultimately dictates how quickly we turn cold and snow rates.

EURO TEMPS EURO SURFACE

Christmas Eve Day Storm Potential:  Due to a few days of warming and temperatures around, or possibly above, freezing during some of the snowfall… there could be serious melting without heavy snow rates.  This too could also limit snowfall amounts.  Again questions to be answered in the coming days.  For now snow remains in the forecast for Christmas Eve day and there’s still a chance of White Christmas for some.  However strong wind with the intensifying storm may be a bigger a story.

EURO SURFACE 2 7DAY

Continue to check back for updates – Sean Ash

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Dec
18

Flurries And Light Snow Around Today

Posted By · December 18, 2014 at 1:42 pm

Flurries and light snow showers continue this afternoon and may produce a quick coating in heavier bursts.  Watch for slick roads on untreated surfaces with temperatures remaining well below freezing.  Expect periods of snow with unseasonably cold highs in the mid-20s.

TEMPS PLANNER EVENING LOWS TONIGHTY

Tonight and Friday:  Snow chances remain around this evening before gradually ending overnight.  The stubborn low cloudiness hangs tough though and we’re back down into the lower 20s for morning lows.  I’m not overly optimistic the overcast breaks tomorrow, but am holding some hope for peeks of sunshine.  Highs near freezing on Friday and slightly warmer this weekend.

PLANNER FRIDAY HIGHS FRIDAY

This Weekend:  It appears the system Saturday will be suppressed southward and we’re only expecting slight chances of flurries to begin the weekend.  Highs Sunday climb into the upper 30s and even warmer into the 40s Monday and Tuesday.

RPM SATURDAY 4PM RPM SUNDAY 7AM HIGHS SUNDAY

Monday evening into Tuesday look rather wet in response to a storm system evolving over the eastern part of the country.  Long range indicators continue to point toward an intense storm emerging on Christmas Eve… but it’s still much too early for specifics on local impacts.

Early Call On Christmas Forecast:  At this point we’re calling for windy conditions Christmas Eve day and temperatures in the mid-30s.  Periods of snow are possible, but wind may be the bigger story than accumulation which could be light.  If surface temperatures remain above freezing this system might have more of an impact on air travel due to wind shear and not roads.  Flurries and/or light snow remain possible Christmas Day but any accumulation would likely have ended by then.  Another potential winter system could impact the Ohio Valley the day after Christmas as the overall pattern becomes stormy in the eastern U.S. the 23rd into New Years.

HEADLINES 7DAY

Again… there are more questions than answers at this point.  Check back as we will continue to update the chances of a White Christmas – Sean Ash

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