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Sun and Snow Showers This Afternoon Followed By Active Pattern

Posted By · March 25, 2014 at 1:43 pm

Don’t let any sunshine today fool you, as it will actually help trigger more scattered snow showers this afternoon.  This wintry set up is due to unseasonably cold air aloft and surface “heating” that creates mid/upper level instability in the atmosphere… allowing snow shower to “pop” in scattered fashion.  Highs today will be in the middle 30s and a good 15 to 20 degrees below normal.  Gusty northwesterly wind pushes “feels like” temperatures into the teens.


Clouds clear overnight and pave the way for low temperatures well into the teens for Wednesday morning.  We’re back to sunshine tomorrow, but highs again struggle to hit 40 degrees.


No change to our soggy outlook for Thursday as the southwesterly flow pushes ample moisture into the region, and enough lift for some thunder too.  Rainy conditions persist into Friday morning before cold front temporarily pushes the rain out.


There is a Slight Risk for severe storms to our west Thursday.  Though thunder is very likely Thursday into Friday morning, limited instability over Central Indiana should keep severe storm chances minimal.


Though Friday afternoon and evening look dry, computer models now indicate a quick return to rain (and possibly snow over parts of Indiana) Friday night into Saturday.  This is a change from prior forecasts… but a needed change due to the latest data sets.


The latest GFS and Canadian models continue to support the soggy Saturday scenario, with the GFS being cold enough for snow.  It’s too early to jump fully on board… but we’re definitely on it and will make adjustments to the forecast as needed.


For now the first half of Saturday looks soggy and raw with highs in the 40s.  Sunday easily will be the best, and warmest, day of the weekend… with sunshine and highs climbing into the 60s.  We’re eyeing storm potential for Monday but it’s too far out any specifics or confidence at this point.  Have a great day.


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Winter Cold Lingers With Light Snow Tuesday

Posted By · March 24, 2014 at 2:36 pm

Clouds increase the rest of the afternoon in advance of an upper level system that will bring light snow to Central Indiana.  Overcast has more bark than bite this evening and much of tonight.  Snow showers are fair game by 7am Tuesday, as quick burst of snow moves across Central Indiana.  Any accumulation will be minor and likely under one inch


Snow in March is not unheard of… in fact, 9.1″ fell on March 24-25 of last year.  The average date of last measurable snow in Indianapolis is March 30th and the latest date for measurable snow during the snow “year” May 28th of 1923.


This upper level system will reinforce the already colder than normal air…and ensure highs in the 30s Tuesday and Wednesday.

Warmer, but wetter, days are ahead Thursday and Friday.  Rain should depart the region by Friday evening as a cold font pushes moisture southward.  For now the weekend looks dry and evenutally much warmer, as highs Sunday shoot into the middle 60s.


Hang in there if you’re winter weary.  Spring warmth is just around the corner.  Have a great afternoon and thanks for reading the blog – Sean Ash

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Spring Arrives But Plenty Of Winter Cold In 7 Day Forecast

Posted By · March 20, 2014 at 2:19 pm

We’re just over an hour into the astronomical start of spring, and right on cue sunshine and near normal temperatures are in play this afternoon.  Though no severe weather around there will be a second statewide tornado drill this evening between 7:30-7:45pm.


We encourage you to discuss your severe weather safety plan with your family, or create a plan if you haven’t already.  Do you have a way to get severe weather warnings? DO NOT rely on OUTDOOR warning sirens… it’s outdated technology that serves a limited purpose.  We strongly recommend purchasing a weather radio and download the WTHR news or weather app to stay updated and ahead of severe weather.  Don’t wait until it’s too late.  You can also sign up for our daily Skytrak13 Personal Forecast that provides forecast updates multiple times a day.  Now I will hop down off the soap box.


It will be a pleasant afternoon with highs in the 50s and a much lighter breeze today.  Clouds will increase later this evening and a narrow of showers will likely develop along a warm front after midnight.




This precipitation will quickly shut down and push eastward as the warm front lifts north-northeast of Central Indiana.  South of this boundary will be our warmest air we’ll enjoy for several days.  Highs Friday jump into the middle and upper 60s… likely triggering a case of Spring Fever!


Though much of Friday will be dry, an approaching cold front will trigger another line of rain and possibly thunder Friday evening.  Timing of this line appears to be between 8pm Friday and 3am Saturday.  This mark a change to a colder air mass heading into the weekend.


Highs Saturday will be a good 15 to 20 colder than Friday, but will pale in comparison to the winter chill coming for next week.  Thanks to digging jet stream and accompanied cross-polar flow, much of the eastern US will be 15 to 25 degrees colder than normal for several days next week.


Thankfully this is spring… when cold air intrusions don’t linger long.  That will be the case next week as highs quickly return to the middle 50s Thursday.  It should be noted new computer model guidance suggests wintry precipitation is a possibility for the southern third of Indiana Saturday night into Sunday… though low confidence at this time on this occurring.

There’s a better chance of snow Tuesday as a potent upper storm is forecast to cross the state, and I’m not going to rule out some accumulation with this feature.  Check back as we get closer to next week.  Welcome to spring and thanks for visiting the blog – Sean Ash


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Windy Wednesday, Spring Equinox Tomorrow, and 60s Friday

Posted By · March 19, 2014 at 1:15 pm

Clouds have had more bark than bite early today, with only a few areas of showers on radar at 1pm.  We expect a disorganized line of rain and possibly thunder to impact central and eastern Indiana the next few hours, as a wind shift/cool front moves across the state.


Gusty wind remains in place this evening and overnight, with sustained wind of 15 to 30mph.  Temperatures should peak in the mid-50s before falling back into the 40s after the front passes.


Much colder lows on tap tonight as clouds clear.  Morning temperatures Thursday will be in the 25 to 30 range.  Astronomical spring begins at 12:57pm tomorrow with breezy conditions, a partly cloudy sky and highs in the lower 50s.


Don’t forget statewide tornado drills will be conducted tomorrow between 10:15am-10:30am and 7:15pm-7:30pm.  Take time out of your day to discuss your family’s safety plan during severe weather and be sure you have a way to get warnings.  The Skytrak13 weather team will also be doing cut-ins on WTHR during those times to remind everyone it’s only a drill.



Friday will be the warmest day for awhile… with spring-like highs in the low to middle 60s.  There’s a slight shower chance along a warm front Friday morning, with better rain/thunder chances Friday night/predawn Saturday along a cold front.

This front marks a major pattern shift over the eastern US Sunday into most of next week. that will deliver 15 to 20 degree below normal temperatures.  That equates to highs in the 30s and lows in the 15 to 20 degree range Sunday into Wednesday… with the possibility of flurries and/or snow showers Tuesday.  Have a great afternoon and thanks for reading the blog – Sean Ash


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Some Sun Today, Showers Tomorrow, Winter Cold Returns Next Week

Posted By · March 18, 2014 at 1:33 pm

Less cloud cover and wind shift to the southeast are doing the temperature trick today.  Central Indiana is a good 15 to 20 degrees warmer than this time 24hrs ago, and we should continue to climb well into the 50s.


High resolution visible satellite imagery at 1pm shows a slowly dissipating stratus cloud deck across the southern-third of the state.  Expect a rapid rise in temperatures as the overcast thins, and highs will range from 55 to near 60 degrees.


Due to seasonably mild highs, dry conditions and partly to mostly conditions we believe today will be one of our better weather set-ups over the next 7 to 10 days.  Though Friday will be warmer, there are rain chances early and late.  Speaking of rain…we’re still expecting an arrival of showers and embedded thunder after 12am tonight and prior to 6am Wednesday.  So the morning commute could be soggy and will definitely be windy with gusts possibly over 30mph as strengthening low pressure treks across the Great Lakes.


The combination of cloud cover and the passage of cold front in the morning will keep temperatures steady in the middle to upper 40s.  Rain amounts by 4pm tomorrow will range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch.


The spring equinox (when the sun crosses over the plane of the equator into the northern hemisphere) occurs at 12:57pm Thursday, and highs Friday will certainly be spring-like in the middle to upper 60s.  But this will be an exception and not rule of the medium to long range pattern

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There is significant model agreement in a cross-polar flow developing to finish the month of March.  The end result will be below to much below normal temperatures, and quite a winter chill next week.  Highs Sunday into Wednesday will likely be in the 30s…some 15 to 25 degrees below normal.  This pattern will also promote snow possibilities across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, though it’s much too early to speculate on whether or not accumulation can be expected.  At the very least don’t bother packing away the winter gear.  Layers will be needed next week for sure!  Have a great afternoon and thanks for visiting the blog – Sean Ash


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Chilly, Brisk Night On Tap

Posted By · March 16, 2014 at 5:26 pm

A raw day no doubt across Central Indiana courtesy of clouds, chilly highs near 30 and a stiff northeasterly wind of 15-35mph.  As anticipated the northern fringe of a wintry mix continues to impact far southern Indiana… with a wintry mix along and south of a Bedfor-Seymour-North Vernon line.


Clouds clear after midnight as this storm system begins to depart toward the eastern US.  In its wake will be an unseasonably cold night with lows in the mid/upper teens and wind chills well into the single digits by sunrise at 7:53am.



Expect a chilly start for St. Patrick’s Day but we’ll be enjoying plenty of sunshine for the parade that begins at 11:30am in Downtown Indy.  Midday temperatures tomorrow will be nearing 30 with afternoon highs climbing into the mid-40s.


The temperature pendulum swings in a warm direction Tuesday in advance of an approaching cold front.  Highs near 60 Tuesday before falling to near 50 Wednesday behind the front.  The transition and front will provide a good chance of rain and possibly some thunder.


Timing of the front will be key to the outcome on Wednesday… and at this point there isn’t any model consensus on whether the boundary will be progressive or slower.  Stay tuned for updates on timing.




Friday looks to be the warmest of the week with highs likely in the middle 60s, if not nearing 70+ in some locations.  Have a great week and thanks for reading the blog – Sean Ash

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Snow Departing But Wind and Cold Remain

Posted By · March 12, 2014 at 1:07 pm

Light snow diminishes quickly this afternoon as low pressure departs to the east.  However the brisk wind remains firm and pushes wind chills into the lower teens and single digits as temperatures drop into the mid-20s by 5pm.  What a dramatic change in less than 24 hours, with many areas 30-35 degrees colder than Tuesday afternoon!


Wind remains sustained at 25 to 30mph this afternoon before diminishing into the 5 to 15mph range overnight.


Lows tomorrow morning drop into the single digits with wind chills at or below zero for many locations… setting the stage for an unseasonably cold day in Central Indiana.


Highs tomorrow will be closer to the average low than average high, but we’re still expecting a quick recovery into the middle 50s Friday as the southwest flow returns.  We’ll need to watch Sunday for possible storm development across the Ohio Valley, though there remains much uncertainty in long range guidance.  Have a great afternoon and thanks for visiting the blog – Sean Ash


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Posted By · March 12, 2014 at 9:30 am

The switch has been flipped for mostly snow over the I-70 corridor with a band of moderate to locally heavy snow the next few hours.  We’re still expecting a 1-3″ accumulation for the Indianapolis metro, though roads may remain wet with sufficient melting initially.  Road conditions worsen significantly traveling northwest where it’s been snowing longer and harder this morning


Strong wind and falling temperatures make for a nasty afternoon, as wind gusts have already hit 45mph in many locations.  Temperatures drop into the middle 20s by 4-5pm, with wind chills dropping into the single digits by 7pm.


Snow will taper to flurries by early afternoon as we gear up for a frigid night in the single digits.  Roads may get icy where any residual moisture from the morning rain doesn’t evaporate.  I’d expect some school delays in the morning due to the snow and cold temperatures.


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