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Jul
07

UPDATE: Flash Flooding Central Indiana

Posted By · July 7, 2015 at 3:02 pm

Heavy rain through Central Indiana has led to wide spread flooding and the issuance of a Flash Flood Warning.  This warning is in effect until 8pm this evening.  Use caution when travelling on roadways today, as there have already been many reports of flooding on the streets.

Flash Flood WEATHERBUG

Rain will continue into the early evening as this system continues to push southeast.  Heavy rain will continue to impact Central Indiana for the next several hours and rain rates will continue to be near 1-2″ per hours in the heaviest pockets.

RADAR

Viewer photos of the flooding have begun to come in:

FARLEY FLOOD

Photo above courtesy of Stacia Kikendall in the Farley neighborhood near Speedway.INDY FLOODING

Photo above courtesy of Shelley Young in Indianapolis

 

 

 

 

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Jul
07

Areas of Flooding Next Few Hours

Posted By · July 7, 2015 at 1:46 pm

Nearly 3″ of rain has fallen in some spots of Central Indiana and areas of heavy rain continue this afternoon.

WEATHERBUG

From now until 4pm, the heaviest rain will be concentrated along the I-70 corridor, where flooding will be likely.  Rain rates of 1-2″ per hour could cause significant street flooding.  Please use caution when travelling around the Indy metro area.  The rain will taper off in Central Indiana from 5-7 PM.

RPM1 RPM2 RPM3

Wednesday will provide us with a break from the humidity as dew points drop out of the oppressive range and into the 50s.  This break doesn’t last long as very humid air will return by Thursday.

MUGG METER

 

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Jul
05

Showers And Storms Return By Mid-Week

Posted By · July 5, 2015 at 4:46 pm

We’re wrapping up the holiday weekend with a hazy sky for all and cloudy conditions for some… especially the southeastern half of the state.  But area wide is dry and warm with afternoon highs in the 80s.  Should be a nice evening for head out to Victory Field with a rare Sunday 6:05pm first pitch for our Indianapolis Indians.  Also nice if you’re planning on attending the World Cup Final viewing party near Mass. Ave this evening too.  Or perhaps your poolside or on the lake.  Please enjoy and be safe.

TEMPS INDIANA PLANNER TONIGHT

Quiet conditions prevail the next 24 hours with a hazy night in the 60s followed by a warmer, more humid day Monday… with highs in the upper 80s and heat indices in the mid-90s.  We’ll be watching upstream radar late tomorrow for potential local impact as storms build along an approaching cold front.

PLANNER MONDAY HIGHS DMA RPM MONDAY 5PM RPM TUESDAY 6AM

These storms should weaken a good deal prior to crossing the IL/IN border after dark tomorrow, but may produce lightning and locally heavy rain before sunrise Tuesday.  The combination of the front, a moist air mass and daytime heating will produce numerous showers and heavy storms Tuesday and Tuesday evening.  Rain amounts in the 1-3″ are possible in heavier storms as a renewed flash flood threat emerges.

RPM TUESDAY 4PM HIGHS OHV TUESDAY RPM WEDNESDAY 7AM

This boundary sinks southward Tuesday night but will buckle back northward late Wednesday into Thursday.  A new round of showers and storms accompany the front by Wednesday afternoon and we’ll have scattered storms Wednesday into the start of next weekend.  Early indications suggest Saturday and Sunday will feature at/above 90 degrees & heat indices possibly pushing triple figures.  Unfortunately the high heat & humidity may trigger strong/severe storms at times next weekend too.  Check back for updates – Sean Ash

RPM WEDNESDAY 11AM RAINFALL RPM 7DAY

 

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Jun
30

Shower & Storm Chances Mainly South Next Few Days

Posted By · June 30, 2015 at 11:44 pm

We put the finishing touches on Indianapolis’ 7th wettest June on record with widely scattered strong storms in the southern half of Indiana Tuesday evening.

INDY MONTHLY

 

 

Indianapolis finishes the month with over 8″ of rain… while Fort Wayne had nearly a foot in what’s now its wettest month on record.  Bloomington also finished with over 10″ and I’ve had a few weather watchers in Cass and Clinton counties that had a foot or more.

INDIANA MONTHLY RAIN MONTHLY DEPARTURES PLANNER TOMORROW

Storms exit but a good deal from wildfires in Alaska and Canada lingers tonight with areas of fog developing toward sunrise Wednesday.

Though it’s dry in the morning will be on radar watch again… mainly for the southern and southwestern viewing area.  Latest data indicates a new disturbance will track a bit farther north than advertised yesterday.  This will require a sct’d storm mention in the Indy metro area during the afternoon, but the highest rain/storms tomorrow into Thursday morning will reside south of I-70.

RPM WEDNESDAY 6AM RPM WEDNESDAY 1PM RPM WEDNESDAY 6PM RPM THURSDAY 6AM

After early morning rain in southern Indiana Thursday, much of the region may be rain and storm free heading into the holiday weekend.  We’ll need to monitor exactly where a frontal boundary will stall, but newest data today paints a decent picture Friday into Sunday afternoon.  We’re going to keep isolated afternoon storm chances for the 4th of July and Sunday… but also reiterate that much of the region and most of the day will be dry and warm.

RPM FRIDAY 7PM WEEKEND SETUP PLANNER SATURDAY PLANNER SUNDAY PATTERN

As always it’s a good idea to check back for changes as this upper level trough in the eastern U.S. is conducive to them to changes.  Long range data from the European model hints that the aforementioned trough in the upper levels may linger into mid-July.  This would keep unsettled conditions, numerous rain/storm chances, around the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and cooler than normal conditions.  Stay tuned and have a great night – Sean Ash

PATTERN 2 7DAY

 

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Jun
30

Spotty Strong Storms Next Few Hours

Posted By · June 30, 2015 at 3:49 pm

While many locations enjoy hazy sunshine and highs in the 80s… we continue to monitor the widely scattered potential for strong to severe storms for areas mainly south of I-70.  Damaging wind and large hail along with frequent lightning are the greatest storms threats in these pulse-type storms.

HEADLINES SPC RPM 5PM TODAY RPM 8PM TODAY

 

Most storms should settle southward of Indianapolis by the start of the Indians game this evening with a first pitch at 7:05pm.  The window for storms closely quickly by 8-9pm as the latest upper disturbance dives southward of the region.  Overnight looks hazy, courtesy of smoke from wildfires in Alaska and Canada, with areas of fog developing toward sunrise Wednesday.

PLANNER INDIANS RPM WEDNESDAY 7AM

Though it’s dry in the morning will be on radar watch again… mainly for the southern and southwestern viewing area.  Latest data indicates a new disturbance will track a bit farther north than advertised yesterday.  This will require sct’d storm mention in the Indy metro area during the afternoon, but the highest rain/storms tomorrow into Thursday morning will reside south of I-70.

RPM WEDNESDAY 5PM PLANNER WEDNESDAY RPM THURSDAY 7AM

After early morning rain in southern Indiana Thursday, much of the region may be rain and storm free heading into the holiday weekend.  We’ll need to monitor exactly where a frontal boundary will stall, but newest data today paints a decent picture Friday into Sunday afternoon.  We’re going to keep isolated afternoon storm chances for the 4th of July and Sunday… but also reiterate that much of the region and most of the day will be dry and warm.

RPM FRIDAY 7AM PLANNER SATURDAY PLANNER SUNDAY 7DAY

As always it’s a good idea to check back for changes as this upper level troughiness pattern is conducive to them.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

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Jun
29

More Scattered Heavy Showers/Storms Tuesday

Posted By · June 29, 2015 at 10:51 pm

Rain amounts were feast or famine Monday.  An early morning round of rain delivered an inch or more on a line from Bloomfield-Bloomington-Columbus to Richmond.  A look at rain amounts for the month of June shows some impressive numbers.  Fort Wayne is nearing 12″, Bloomington just shy of 10″ and Indianapolis is over 8″… nearly double the monthly average.

This doesn’t take into account areas outside of these reporting stations… some of which are in the 13″ to near 20″ in parts of Jasper County.  Anyway you slice it’s been wet and we need to dry out.

RAIN TODAY MONTHLY RAIN MONTHLY DEPARTURE LOWS TONIGHT

 

 

Spotty showers will mostly fizzle out tonight with areas of fog developing heading into Tuesday morning.    The arrival of another upper air disturbance from the northwest brings another round of scattered heavy showers and storms.  These storms should develop late morning, peak out in the afternoon, and diminish toward sunset.

RPM TUESDAY 7AM RPM 12PM TUESDAY RPM 2PM TUESDAY RPM TUESDAY 5PM HIGHS TOMORROW PLANNER TUEDAY

Latest guidance suggests the boundary for showers and storms will push south toward the Ohio River Wednesday and Thursday… allowing for mostly dry conditions both day and highs near 80.  But admittedly there are is a solution that has the frontal depicted below farther north of the Ohio River.

RPM WEDNESDAY 4PM RPM THURSDAY 7PM RPM THURSDAY FRONTS

Heading into the holiday weekend this front will make or break outdoor plans.  If it stays south then we’ll enjoy mainly dry conditions.  However if the boundary stalls north of the Ohio River we’ll be working around showers and storms.  There remains some uncertainty on its location and at this time we’ve opted to keep our forecast of isolated afternoon showers/storms going.  Even if that solution plays out there will be ample dry time too.

7DAY

Please check back for updates as this could change greatly in the next five days.

 

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Jun
29

Dodging Downpours This Evening

Posted By · June 29, 2015 at 4:22 pm

UPDATE:  Funnel clouds have been reported in Tippecanoe and Carroll counties… and below are a two examples.  These are weak funnels developing within showers, not typical supercell storms that produce tornadoes, that are encountering low level vorticity or wind shear.  They are highly unlikely to reach ground level, but are ominous nonetheless.

Image Courtesy of Jessica Bradley

FUNNEL CLOUD 2

Image Courtesy of Kevin Evans

FUNNEL CLOUD CLINTON

With a good deal of cloud cover and scattered showers around, temperatures in Central Indiana Monday afternoon were 10-15 degrees below normal.  Thankfully no severe weather, which dodged us to the south, and rain has been more miss than hit.

TEMPS HRRR 7PM HRRR 10PM

 

Late this evening into the overnight areas of fog and drizzle will develop as temperatures creep back into the lower 60s.  Partial sunshine is possible at times Tuesday before a new round of scattered showers and locally heavy storms develop during afternoon heating.

HRRR 5AM TUESDAY PLANNER TUESDAY RPM 7AM TUESDAY RPM 2PM TUESDAY RPM 7PM TUESDAY RPM WEDNESDAY 7AM

Latest guidance suggests the boundary for showers and storms will push south toward the Ohio River Wednesday and Thursday… allowing for mostly dry conditions both day and highs near 80.

A renewed surge of scattered storms arrive during the Friday as the boundary buckles back northward into the state along with a upper disturbance.  There remains some uncertainty on whether or not this boundary will then again push southward or remain stalled in the state for the holiday weekend.

RPM WEDNESDAY 7PM RPM THURSDAY 7PM

Indianapolis added another .30″ to the rain gauge since midnight.  This pushes the monthly total up to 8.36″ which is good for the 7th wettest June on record… and wettest June in 5 years.  An additional half-inch to inch is possible in spots between this evening and Wednesday morning… with additional heavy amounts in play Friday.

MODEL RAINFALL 7DAY

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Jun
28

Storms Return Tonight

Posted By · June 28, 2015 at 5:28 pm

We’re enjoying the best day of the week with comfortable humidity and highs near 80 degrees. Clouds are increasing as a quick-moving upper disturbance over western Illinois nears the area… and a few heavy showers have crossed into the state as well.

RADAR TEMPS SATRAD WATCH

Much of the precipitation with these lead showers will have a struggle making it past US-231 west of Indy… but we can’t rule out some leftover sprinkles or light showers between now and midnight.  But the greatest coverage of storms, and severe weather, will be focused in central/western Illinois back into Missouri where a Tornado Watch is in effect.

HRRR 5PM HRRR 7PM HRRR 11PM

As the core of the upper disturbance pivots into the state later tonight we’ll see an increase in coverage of showers and storms heading into the Monday morning.  While don’t expect severe weather, there will be locally heavy rainfall.  Additional strong to severe storms build during the afternoon heating Monday.

HRRR MONDAY 6AM TONIGHT PLANNER MONDAY RPM MONDAY 5PM SPC DAY 2

Another round of scattered storms develop Tuesday. Latest model guidance offers differing solutions on where a frontal boundary will stall out. One solution is south of the viewing area… and this would be a drier solution. Another solution is for the front to stall along Central Indiana which would produce more scattered storms Wednesday and Thursday.

7DAY

For now we’re splitting the difference in the forecast and keeping in a daily chance of showers and storms from Monday into Friday. We’ll continue to keep a mostly dry forecast for the 4th of July… but that is very subject to change within this unsettled pattern. Check back for updates – Sean Ash

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