In the wake of a cold front that passed through the Indy metro area around 9am this morning… gusty wind and below normal temperatures are the big story this afternoon. Temperatures range from 45 to 55 degrees for late day highs.
The aforementioned front is now pushing across Ohio and attached to an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes. This low will be the driver of our weather for several days and becomes cut-off from the main jet stream. This allows it to spin around the Great Lakes day after day and reinforce already cooler than normal conditions.
This is the first day of an unseasonably cool stretch of days with temperature anomalies 10-15 degrees below normal.
Spotty showers pop up during peak heating this afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes. Clouds and showers diminish after sunset, but the brisk wind remains a constant heading into Tuesday morning.
Despite clearing and lows dropping into the upper 30s and lower 40s… the steady breeze keeps frost from morning tonight. Expect brisk conditions to linger into Wednesday morning as the pressure gradient around the Great Lakes Low keeps the wind in the 10mph+ range for the next 48 hours.
Morning sunshine tomorrow gives way to a building cloud deck and more showers in the afternoon. Highs near 60 degrees Tuesday but a strong wind of 25-35mph makes it feel cooler.
Steady wind saves the region from frost Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. But we’ll need to monitor Thursday and Friday mornings for frost potential and the wind eases and we’ll see greater raditional cooling. Either way lows will chill into the low to mid 30s. A bright finish to the week gives way to clouds and showers heading into Saturday.
All signs point to a much colder than normal finish to the month of April and perhaps beginning of May. Stay tuned for updates – Sean Ash
Another round of downpours pivoting around an area of low pressure will move across Central Indiana between now and midnight. No severe weather expected, but a rumble of thunder or locally gusty wind remain possible.
After midnight rain become fairly scarce but showers remain possible heading into the Monday morning commute. While I don’t envision a wash-out tomorrow like today, showers or a rumble of thunder are possible from sunrise to sunset.
If you have outdoor these showers will be widely scattered and quick-movers. So a washout seems unlikely, but a delay(s) are possible given the 50% coverage that’s anticipated.
The rest of the week features cooler than normal conditions with highs in the 50s and several mornings in the 30s. We’ll need to closely monitor nights that will have a clear sky and light wind for frost potential. Updates to come – Sean Ash
The steady, heavy at times, rain shield continues to lift north-northeastward into north central Indiana. By 6pm the heaviest downpours should be north of I-70. Impressive rainfall amounts in the half inch to inch plus keep street flooding in play.
Clouds and rain delivered a much cooler finish to the weekend… and a good 15 to 20 degrees less than the mid/upper 70s from Saturday.
We’ll also need to monitor southern and southeastern Indiana for isolated storms this evening where some destabilization may aid in locally strong/severe storms. It’s not likely, but rather a low probability (<5% chance within 25 miles of a point) of locally severe wind or a quick tornado spin-up in stronger cells.
Scattered showers and storms remain possible overnight into Monday afternoon before precipitation chances diminish by mid-week. Low pressure strengthening over Central Indiana will create gusty wind late evening and overnight… when wind speeds may approach 30mph. The main forecast headline this week will be cooler than temperatures with several days of highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.
After the sunset tomorrow the instability clouds/showers (driven by much colder air aloft) diminish and set up a chilly night in the 30s. This will be the first of several colder than normal nights this week. A couple of mornings patchy frost will be possible and fine-tune this part of the forecast in the days ahead. At this point organized precipitation seems unlikely, but spotty showers will be possible Wednesday into Saturday.
More updates to come this evening – Sean Ash
It’s shaping up to be a decent day across Central Indiana with a mix of sun and clouds.
Highs climb into the mid and upper 60s with a easterly breeze up to 25mph this afternoon. Great weather for the Indianapolis Indians game that begins at 1:35pm.
Clouds increase this evening with the latest round of showers creeping south to north around an upper level disturbance. By midnight many backyards will have rain and we do expect occasional rumbles of thunder from this evening to sunrise Thursday.
Thursday will be unsettled with periods of showers and thunderstorms. It doesn’t look like it will rain all day tomorrow, but rain/thunder are possible from the time you wake until sunset.
This disturbance breaks down and departs to allow for a few decent days Friday and Saturday. Expect partly sunny conditions and highs in the 70s. Confidence is higher that we’ll have dry conditions for the Susan G. Komen Race For The Cure Saturday morning… with temperatures in the upper 40s/lower 50s around sunrise.
However computer models are locking in on a wetter solution for Sunday… which is the biggest change to the forecast package today. Also of note is that a stretch of cooler than temperatures appears likely during the middle of next week when highs will be in the 50s for a few days. Have a great afternoon and please check back for updates – Sean Ash
The gray that’s covered the state for much of the day is breaking in spots for peeks of sun this afternoon. A northeast wind continues to undercut this cloud deck to provide a refreshing, and dry breeze into the state.
Highs top out in the lower to mid 60s… though upper 60s are possible in the brightest spots. Clouds should continue to break this evening and overnight to allow for better raditional cooling. This results in colder morning lows tomorrow with Wednesday morning beginning in the lower 40s.
We’ll also begin brighter tomorrow and as a result finish milder overall as highs near 70 degrees Wednesday afternoon. Though there is a slight shower chance by evening, higher rain chances hold off until Thursday.
Expect scattered to numerous showers and storms Thursday. Much of this breaks down and departs by Friday morning. However latest model guidance suggests Friday will be rather foggy and cloudy. Friday finishes dry with peeks of sun and highs in the 70s.
We continue to call for a dry forecast for the Susan G Komen Race for the Cure on Saturday. However it should be noted there is massive model disagreement on the weekend solution in Central Indiana. One output depicts a wet/stormy set up on Saturday. At this time we believe this is an outlier and opt to keep the weekend dry.
There’s plenty of time to change as needed for Saturday and Sunday. Check back for updates – Sean Ash
Scattered showers continue to move across Central Indiana this afternoon, with some pockets of locally heavier rain. No severe weather is expected but an increase in lightning seems likely in eastern and southeastern Indiana where surface temperatures are warmer.
Showers and thunder exit early this evening. Despite lingering cloud cover, don’t cancel your plans to attend the Indianapolis Indians game this evening. First pitch at 7:05pm includes temperatures in the mid-60s with northwesterly breezes. It’s a good idea to take a light jacket.
Clouds likely linger overnight into Tuesday morning. Expect a decrease in cloudiness tomorrow and a pleasant afternoon in the upper 60s tomorrow. Wednesday is also pleasant with a slow increase in clouds. Highs near 70 before some evening showers creep into the state toward sunset.
Thursday and Friday are unsettled with mainly cloudy conditions and periods of rain/storms. The departure and breakdown of this upper level feature not being handled well in medium range modeling data. As of now we’ll keep the weekend forecast dry. But realize there may be drastic changes to both Saturday & Sunday to include rain/storm chances. A few solutions depict the upper level hovering over the Ohio Valley which would up the ante on precipitation chances. Check back for updates – Sean Ash
Mid to high level clouds have increased across Central Indiana this afternoon, but with other then a few sprinkles in far northwestern Indiana will continue to enjoy dry conditions. Better rain chances this evening are over the Quad-Cities area where the core an upper disturbance exists, but is racing north-northeastward into the western Great Lakes.
The remnant cloud debris from this features, and a steady southeasterly wind, keep temperatures mainly in the 50s overnight. We still expect dry conditions to begin Monday with at least partial sun for the morning commute. But a cold front arriving during the afternoon triggers scattered to widespread showers and storms.
Give or take… rain/storm hit northwestern Indiana by 2pm, the Indy metro area by 5pm, and southeastern Indiana by 8pm. Though severe weather isn’t anticipated, locally heavy storms will produce rain amounts in excess of three-quarters of an inch of rainfall. Any storm is also capable of frequent lightning and gusty wind.
Planning on attending the Indianapolis Indians game Monday evening? A rain/storm delay is certainly possible, but it’s a possibility the storm axis is southeast of Victory Field by 7pm. Check radar and the Indians’ website before heading out.
The passage of the front Monday evening pushes most of the rain out of the state by Tuesday 12am. However clouds may linger Tuesday morning before the sky become mostly sunny by Tuesday afternoon. Much of Wednesday looks nice before storm chances increase again heading into Thursday morning.
The early call for next weekend is quiet, mostly bright conditions again! This would time out nicely with The Race For The Cure Saturday morning. Stay tuned for updates – Sean Ash