As expected it’s been a quiet afternoon thus far for central Indiana… just hot and humid with temperatures in the 80s and heat indices in the 90s. We will monitor storms in southern Illinois for upstream impact in southern Indiana where damaging wind is possible for cities like Bedford, Seymour and North Vernon that are under a Slight Risk for severe storms.
There is Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11pm for the Evansville area, and it’s conceivable this watch is pushed farther east as storms grow. The greatest wind potential will be along the Ohio River but can’t ruled out for the cities I mentioned above. After this evening we get ready for refreshing air but patience is still required.
While severe storms stay well south of Indy, I can’t rule out some of the rain debris sneaking up to the I-70 corridor. Rain and storm chances quickly diminish after dark when the disturbance passes to the east.
Lows tonight stay muggy in the upper 60s but you’ll feel the difference tomorrow when highs stay in the 70s! Cool air aloft and even modest daytime heating will allow isolated afternoon showers to develop…but many stay dry Wednesday.
Patience will be rewarded tomorrow as dew points finally drop below the line of discomfort which is the 65 degree dew point mark.
Even cooler air hits Thursday morning when lows dip in the 50s! You’ll be able to open the windows and turn off the A/Cs for a few days. This is perfect timing for the 4th of July which still looks picture perfect. Sunny and 70s Friday with a repeat performance Saturday.
Heat builds Sunday into the early next week. Have a great evening – Sean Ash
The leading edge of strong to severe storms have crossed over the Illinois/Indiana border…producing widespread damage in Lake County with 80mph+ wind gusts. It appears the strongest wind with this complex will again target the Michiana border.
Below is a rough estimated time of arrival (time of posting is 12:08am so subject to change) for cities in north-central Indiana. Please note… it doesn’t mean the line will remain severe when it arrives but merely a gauge of when to expect thunder and lightning and the very least.
The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been extended farther east and south to include Frankfort, Tipton, Lafayette, Kokomo and Marion until 4am.
Damaging wind is a possibility, but I believe flooding rain and lightning will be the bigger threats for the viewing area as the storm weakens.
If the remnants hold together it could get loud in the Indy metro area between 2am and 4am.
This feature should depart the viewing area by sunrise and then gear up for another warm, humid day Tuesday. I’m in the weather center with Kelly Greene until Chuck Lofton arrives monitoring the conditions.
Clouds have quickly thinned after the early day storms, and temperatures are quickly warming into the 80s. Heat indices will near 90 degrees this afternoon in jungle-like humidity.
All eyes remain focused on a damaging wind complex racing across Iowa into Illinois… eventually heading toward north-northwestern Indiana. This complex has already produced numerous 70mph wind reports and damage as it accelerates to the east-northeast. It appears the leading edge will near the northwestern corner of the state by9-10pm. If it can overcome lack of daytime heating and atmospheric “cap” that will be building after dark, it would arrive in the Indy metro after midnight in a weakened state.
Areas well north-northwest of Indianapolis have the greatest potential of wind damage, and a Tornado Watch may be issued for parts of the viewing area later this evening… though wind damage with downpours and lightning remain the main threats.
It’s to be determined how far south and east its severe wind will survive the lack of daytime heating. But we’re urging all viewers to remain weather aware until we can give the all clear.
Tuesday looks to be a quieter weather day, though still warm and humid. Widely scattered storms are possible in southeastern Indiana during the afternoon, and some of those could be strong to severe too… with damaging wind and hail as main threats . But many remain dry Tuesday and lather up the sunscreen and dress in comfortable clothes if you’re heading down to the World Cup block party on Mass Ave in Indianapolis.
We’re still on target for refreshing air to arrive Thursday morning and pave the way for a very nice 4th of July. Stay safe this evening – Sean Ash
Our latest round of splash-and-dashers will continue to push east into Ohio and set much of central Indiana up for a relatively dry evening. Dry in the precipitation sense, but the Muggy Meter remains sky high and oppressive with dew points in the 70s.
As a result of the sticky air, air conditioners will continue to work overtime tonight into Monday. Highs tomorrow will near or go above 90 degrees. We’ve yet to hit that magical number this season thanks in large part to the wet June and abundant soil moisture that’s lead to high levels of evapotranspiration (humid air heats and cools slower than dry air).
Much of Monday will be dry, but we’ll need to monitor a complex of severe storms in Illinois late tomorrow for local impact.
Western and northwestern Indiana (including Lafayette and Peru) are under a Slight Risk for severe weather…primarily for late tomorrow. But this is highly conditional on how long the aforementioned complex will hold together, and where it will track. At this point I’m not overly optimistic this feature will have a high impact on the viewing area.
It should be noted one potential outcome is for this feature to weaken before impacting the viewing area and the convective boundary setting south of the region Tuesday. This would mean most would miss out on rain and storms. It’s too early for a high level confidence on any given output though.
However, we feel confident on a pleasant set up for the 4th of July thanks to a seasonably strong Canadian high pressure system. You should notice a big difference in the air mass Wednesday, despite warm highs in the 80s. Thursday and the 4th of July are about as good as it gets for July…with comfortable humidity and highs in the 70s! The pleasant air should linger into the weekend though the air mass will modify and allow highs to get back into the 80s.
Have a nice evening – Sean Ash
Keep tabs on the radar the rest of today with flooding rain for some and the potential for localized damaging wind in stronger storms today.
Areas of heavy rain and strong to possibly severe storms will increase as a disturbance pivots across central Indiana. Tropical rain rates of 2-3″/hour are likely in heavier cells and total rainfall may exceed 1-2″ for some. It appears the eastern half of the state has the greatest chance of damaging wind due to more unstable air.
We’re sweating through another humid day with temperatures in the 70s at midday and lower 80s to finish. Dew points remain tropical, which makes it the “air you can wear” and helps feed the downpours.
The atmosphere settles down by 11pm this evening and sets the stage for a quite, but rather humid night. Areas of dense fog are possible Wednesday morning. Much of tomorrow will dry and warm. Highs Wednesday will be back in the mid to upper 80s, with only an isolated chance of a late day shower or storm.
The updated Skytrak13 seven day forecast shows a daily chance a shower or storm… but there will be more dry than wet hours and the focus shifts to hot air building into the weekend. Expect upper 80s and lower 90s Saturday and Sunday with heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100.
Have a safe day – Sean Ash
A rain-cooled outflow boundary from early day storms in southern Indiana provided just enough directional wind shear in northern Indiana to produce a harmless funnel cloud shortly before 8pm Sunday evening near Kokomo. Storm Prediction Center mesoanalyis shows low level instability (in red) overlapping locally maximized surface vorticity with the lone cell in Howard County (circled in black) at 7:45pm.
Visible satellite also shows the low-topped (approximately 25-30,000feet) storm cloud that was relatively high based. Being high based was one key factor in keeping the funnel aloft.
Radar analysis (reflectivity on left and velocity on right) just prior to 8pm shows rather broad, weak rotation… but rotation nonetheless (green and red colors near each other).
This microscale environment produced the funnel below that was witnessed by many in Howard County approximately around 7:50pm…along the US 31 Bypass
(photo above courtesy of Jason Darts looking north from Tipton, IN)
Good Sunday afternoon to you. Our forecast is right on target today… with 3pm temperatures well into the mid and upper 80s and heat indices for some in the 90s.
Right on cue with the daytime heating we’ve seen isolated heavy showers and occasional rumbles of thunder developing. The focus has primarily been around Columbus, Hope and Greensburg. But an outflow boundary (rain cooled from the storms) is lifting northward into central Johnson and Shelby counties and will likely trigger new cell development farther north.
But as mentioned earlier these only be isolated and most won’t see a drop of rain today. However if you’re under these pulse cells the rain will be torrential at times and dampen pool side plans for a bit until they rain themselves out.
This sun-driven precipitation appropriately diminishes after dark and a quiet, but muggy night is expected. Areas of locally dense for are likely Monday morning and especially in areas that see rain today.
A new round of isolated to scattered storms are on the docket during daytime heating Monday… when highs near 90 degrees in many cities with heat indices in the upper 90s.
Some of the storms will be locally strong if not producing severe wind gusts. Stay weather aware both Monday and Tuesday which will be stormy and at times very wet.
An area of low pressure will track along the I-70 corridor Tuesday and deliver widespread showers and heavy storms. Between now and Wednesday some areas will see another one to two inches or more. It’s already been a wet June as most cities have eclipsed the monthly average (4.25″ in Indianapolis) for rainfall already.
If you’re looking for relief from the muggy air I’m afraid to say we’re in the long haul… with mid to upper 80s the next 7 days and beyond. In fact long range indicators suggest a rather hot finish to June and beginning of July. Confidence is growing on a prolonged stretch of 90s heading into the 4th of July holiday. Stay tuned and have a great evening – Sean Ash
Get ready to sweat through another day of uncomfortable heat and humidity. A disturbance creating heavy rain in the northeast corner of the state early this morning pushes east of Indiana by midday… offering very little to trigger redevelopment this afternoon.
As temperatures climb into the mid to upper 80s the atmosphere will become highly unstable. During peak heating in late afternoon and early evening isolated showers and storms will be possible.
Morning temperatures are near 70 and as clouds thin we’ll see a quick rise into the 80s by midday. Highs will range from 85 to near 90 with heat indices well into the 90s this afternoon.
Much of Monday will also be dry before the next upper disturbance enters the region triggering clusters of strong to possibly severe storms during the evening. This feature will also bring another round of scattered heavy storms Tuesday before departing in the middle of the week.
The Skytrak13 seven day forecast shows mostly dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday before we’re back in scattered storm chances Friday and Saturday. It’s been a wet June and it appears we’ll tack on another one to locally three inches or more this week. Stay tuned for updates and have a great Sunday.