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Feb
18

Rare Air Hits Central Indiana

Posted By · February 18, 2015 at 5:16 pm

Snow showers and locally heavier squalls linger for another few hours.  Slick roads can be expected even after snowfall ends due to considerable blowing and drifting.  Temperatures tumble to the coldest levels of the winter tonight and near record low levels by sunrise.

TEMPS WIND CHILL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

All of the region is under a Wind Chill Advisory from now until 11am Friday.  Wind chills drop into the -20 to -30 range overnight into Thursday morning.  Very bitter conditions for anyone outside tomorrow with wind speeds of 10 to 20mph… with potentially higher gusts.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY GRAPH TEMP WIND CHILL PLANNER TOMORROW

Lows Thursday morning will be close to the record of -8 set back in 1979.  The record cold high tomorrow will be smashed!  In fact if our forecast high of 5 degrees verifies… it will be only the 9th day that cold (for a high) in the past 30 years.  It would also be the coldest high for Indianapolis this late in the season on record.

HEADLINES RPM 5PM THURSDAY

A changing wind direction pushes snow squalls much farther Thursday, but be mindful that vigorous lake squalls impact I-69 and the Toll Road in northern Indiana.  Light snow returns to the area Friday afternoon and we continue to monitor a bigger system.

Many have asked about the weekend storm potential.  Model guidance continues to advertise a “juicy” system still eyeing Central Indiana.  All precipitation types are on the table including accumulations of snow, wintry mix, freezing rain and cold rain.  “If” heavy rain materializes we can’t even rule out flooding due to snow melt.  This far out it’s premature to be more specific than that.  We’ll update as needed.  Check back and stay safe this evening – Sean Ash

RPM 12PM FRIDAY RPM 1PM SATURDAY 7DAY

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Feb
18

Winter Weather Advisory Issued For Snow Squalls And Hazardous Travel

Posted By · February 18, 2015 at 12:35 pm

Vigorous snow showers and squalls are dotting Central Indiana.  Be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions, localized white-outs with pockets of accumulation exceeding one inch.  The squalls are also accompanied by gusty 30-45mph wind.  Remember while it may be sunny when you leave home, driving into a squall can happen with very little warning.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY RPM 3PM WEDNESDAY

Squalls and snow showers settle down and diminish after sunset.  Then we prepare for record cold temperatures Thursday with dangerous wind chills.  Afternoon wind chills remain parked below zero and drop into the -20 to -30 range by sunrise Thursday… which nears Warning Criteria.  We’re advising you to limit outdoor time this evening and into midday Friday as Wind Chill Advisories continue to 11am Friday.

RPM 7PM WEDNESDAY RPM 10PM WEDNESDAY RPM WIND CHILL 7AM THURSDAY

Indianapolis nears a record low tonight and will smash a 130 year old record cold “high” tomorrow.  “If” our forecast high of 5° verifies tomorrow it would mark the coldest high this late in the season on record for Indianapolis.  The last time the city had a high of below 7° this late in the season was 1963.  It’s rare air anyway you slice it.

HEADLINES

Many have asked about the weekend storm potential.  Model guidance continues to advertise a “juicy” system still eyeing Central Indiana.  All precipitation types are on the table including accumulations of snow, wintry mix, freezing rain and cold rain.   This far out it’s premature to be more specific than that.  We’ll update as needed.  Check back and stay safe this evening – Sean Ash

 

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Feb
17

Terribly Timed Snow Tonight And Coldest Air Of Winter Coming

Posted By · February 17, 2015 at 4:33 pm

Winter is definitely making up for lost time in Central Indiana and we’re in for the long haul regarding unseasonably cold air.  The fresh, deep snow pack aided in very cold temperatures last night south of I-70.  Many locations dropped several degrees below zero… with Bloomington, Bedford, Seymour and Columbus all near 10 below!  That makes the 25 to 30 degree temperature recovery quite impressive.  Enjoy the “warmth” today friends.  A long stretch of consecutive hours with temperatures below double digits starts Wednesday evening

MORNING LOWS TEMPS

Tonight:  An area of snow showers continues to move across the region, but we’re not expecting much with this feature.  However, steadier snow returns tonight and sets the stage for slick roads and a slow Wednesday morning commute.  The snow arrives mainly after midnight and will fall efficiently within the bitterly cold air.

HEADLINES PLANNER TONIGHT RPM WEDNESDAY 2AM

By 4am the snow will be steadiest along and south of I-70, but even areas to the north may see some light snow.  But remember that even light snow will make roads slick as temperatures drop into the lower teens and upper single digits by sunrise.

RPM WEDNESDAY 4AM RPM WEDNESDAY 7AM

For now we anticipate a dusting to up to an inch for the Indy metro area, with a 1-2″ accumulation south of I-70.  Even some 3″ reports are possible for our southern counties… including cities like Odon, Bloomfield, Bedford, Mitchell, and Seymour.  Regardless of exact amounts the key is timing and temperature.  We expect slow travel Wednesday morning.

SNOW FORECAST PLANNER WEDNESDAY RPM WEDNESDAY 8PM

Wednesday:  Temperatures likely hold steady Wednesday in the wake of our latest Arctic frontal passage.  Actual temperatures will be in the 8 to 15 range, but northwesterly gusts up to 25-30mph pushes wind chill values into the -10 to -20 range.  Cold air advection and wind off of Lake Michigan crank up convective snow showers in the afternoon… with locally heavy squalls possible.  These will cause rapid changes to road conditions, visibility and drop quick accumulations.

WIND CHILL 10PM WEDNESDAY

These all sets the stage for our coldest day since last January.  Lows Thursday morning flirt with daily record levels.  Area wide will be below zero and southern Indiana may drop to nearly 20 below!  Wind Chill Advisories/Warnings will needed and we’re advising to limit outdoor time Wednesday evening into Friday midday.

LOWS THURSDAY WIND CHILL 8AM THURSDAY HIGHS THURSDAY

The “high” Thursday will reach record low levels.  If our forecast “high” of 5 degrees in Indy verifies Thursday, it will be one of only nine days at/below 5 degrees for a high in the past 30 years.  Though still remains much too early for specifics… model guidance continues to advertise a moisture-laden system impacting the Ohio Valley this weekend.  We’ll continue to monitor trends for potential snow/wintry mix accumulation and travel impacts.  Stay tuned and stay warm – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Feb
16

Snow Slowly Exiting Southern Indiana And Bitter Cold Night Ahead

Posted By · February 16, 2015 at 6:28 pm

Snow continues for about 1-2 more hours in southeastern Indiana.  This system behaved as advertised.. with the heaviest snow totals occurring between Bedford and Seymour.  Parts of Lawrence County likely end up with nearly 9″.

SNOW STATS

The I-70 corridor again proved to be the cut-off zone in snow.  Very little falling north of 465 and nearly 2-3″ for in Morgan, Johnson and Shelby counties.

We’re monitoring cloud cover closely this evening, as it plays a vital role in how cold temperatures drop tonight.  At this time we believe enough clearing occurs to allow for “radiational” cooling and lows drop into the single digits.  Areas of deepest snow pack could possibly have lows go below zero.  That’s where wind chills will be for kids at the bus stop Tuesday morning.

LOWS TONIGHT BUS STOP RPM TUESDAY 7AM

Expect a bright, but bitter start tomorrow morning.  Sunshine gives way to building clouds during the afternoon with scattered flurries and snow showers.  Highs Tuesday reach the mid-20s… our warmest day until the weekend.

RPM TUESDAY 6PM HIGHS TUESDAY PLANNER TUESDAY

The latest Arctic front hits Wednesday with snow squalls and highs possibly in the single digits.  The cold gets colder Thursday with wind chills in the -15 to -30 range and actual lows well below zero.  To put into perspective… “highs” in Indianapolis likely don’t warm above the average LOW until the weekend.

RPM WEDNESDAY 7AM RPM WEDNESDAY 5PM WIND CHILLS THIS WEEK

We’l be monitoring a potential system for this weekend.  It’s early in the game and no need for specifics as much can change between now and then.  However we don’t see a break from the cold pattern anytime soon.

7DAY

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Feb
16

Snow Total Update And Bitter Cold To Follow

Posted By · February 16, 2015 at 1:45 pm

Snow continues to fall over the southern half of Indiana and will continue to do so the next few hours.  Highest additional accumulation between now and 4pm is south of I-70.  However additional light snow continues over Indy to keep roads slick.

TEMPS SNOW REPORTS

Snow amounts are approaching 8-9″ in southern Indiana and it’s conceivable a few places between from Seymour/Bedford to the Ohio River will hit 10″.  Travel is not recommended in southern Indiana or into Kentucky where some roads are impassable.

RADAR

NWS Indianapolis has 1″ officially which pales in comparison to the heavy stuff in Kentucky.  To put this storm into perspective.  In nearly 12 hours… Elizabethtown (10″) eclipsed Indianapolis’ SEASON snow total (9.7″).  The I-70 corridor has thus far missed the brunt of most storms.

HEADLINES

Snow tapers to flurries by 5pm and departs the state by 8pm.  Lows tonight drop into the single digits but the worst is yet to come.  Mid-week modeled wind chills suggest renewed Wind Chill Advisories/Warnings return to Central Indiana and may drop into the -20 to -30 range Thursday morning.

WIND CHILLS THIS WEEK

“Highs” Wednesday and Thursday likely will be in the single digits within a “pipe-bursting” cold air mass.  We’re in for the long haul it appears with no break in the pattern for the foreseeable future.  Updated 7 day forecast coming shortly.

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Feb
16

Snowfall Update – Heaviest Remains South

Posted By · February 16, 2015 at 10:47 am

Radar and snow reports confirm the forecast thinking that southern Indiana would take brunt of this snow event.

SNOW REPORTS

As of 10:30am there are several 6″ snow reports in Lawrence County and 3-4″ reports coming in from Greene County.  Snow will continue to fall steadily in these areas for several more hours.  It’s conceivable some cities in our southern viewing area will reach 8″.

TEMPS NOW

Farther north snowfall drops rapidly… with under an inch as of now at the National Weather Service in Indianapolis.  But remember that even light snow amounts in this type of cold will lead to slick roads… which is the case in downtown Indianapolis.

DOWNTOWN INDY RPM MONDAY 1PM RPM MONDAY 6PM

Snow will end from west to east after midday and most locations should be snow-free by 5-6pm.  Expect slick travel to continue after the system departs and our focus quickly shifts to the prolonged bout of unseasonably, if not record-breaking, cold for the remainder of the week.  An updated long range forecast coming shortly – Sean Ash

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Feb
16

Snow In Southern Indiana Reaches I-70 By Sunrise

Posted By · February 16, 2015 at 12:18 am

Snow will continue to fall in southern Indiana the next few hours and quickly accumulate to a few inches by sunrise.  Farther north, where the air is drier, expect cloudy and cold conditions to persist.

TEMPS WSW

It would not be shocking to Winter Weather Advisories expanded farther north or to see Bloomington, Columbus and Greensburg upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning.

We’re targeting the 5am-7am time frame as an arrival time for the I-70 corridor and Indianapolis metro area.  Remember that even light snow will make the roads slow with temperatures in the lower teens.

Snow will increase across the southern half of the state and be steadiest/heaviest for I-70 southward from 9am-2pm.  Snowfall rates in southern Indiana may reach an 1″ per hour.  We’re not advising travel in southern Indiana or south of the Ohio River where many areas of Kentucky will near a foot of snowfall.

TOMORROW SNOWFALL FORECAST

I didn’t make any major changes to the initial snow zone map.  Please remember not to focus on just the high number, but the range.  Also remember these zones are subject to big changes north-to-south as a rather sharp gradient will set up.  So 10 to 20 miles (especially along the I-70 corridor) could mean the difference between a dusting to nearly 4″.

We have higher confidence areas along and south of a Bloomfield-Bloomington-Columbus-Greensburg will easily reach forecast amounts.

SNOWFALL FORECAST METRO AREA HEADLINES

Due to dry air in place (that could severely “eat away” at potential snow) and the possibility of the storm tracking farther north (more moisture/higher snow)… we have lower confidence on the outcome for the city and the I-70 corridor.  We’ll have to wait until the snow begins in the city and examine radar trends.  Please note significant changes remain possible to any given area.  The difference between the northern and southern burbs may be quite much.

HEADLINES 2 PLANNER MONDAY

Snow will diminish from west to east between 5pm and 7pm and then our forecast quickly shifts to temperatures.  Our recent cold snap continues, and intensifies, this week.  Expect many morning at or below zero and daytime highs that may struggle into double digits.  Chuck Lofton will have upates beginning at 4am on Sunrise.  Please check and expect a slower than normal commute – Sean Ash

7DAY

 

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Feb
15

Update On Ohio Valley Winter Storm

Posted By · February 15, 2015 at 5:05 pm

***Winter Storm To Impact The Southern Half Of Indiana***

Quiet and cold this evening with all eyes on an approaching winter storm.  This remains a fluid forecast and highly subject to change with only slight deviations in storm track the next 24 hours.  Clouds increase later with snow increasing after midnight.

WSW RPM 8PM SUNDAY RPM 5AM MONDAY

Dry air is the forecast wildcard for Indianapolis, as it could really limit even the 1-3″ forecast we currently have for the city and the I-70 corridor.

RPM 9AM MONDAY RPM MONDAY 12PM RPM MONDAY 5PM

It should be noted that even light snowfall will impact your Monday morning with lows nearing the single digits.  Snow will become likely, to at times heavy, by sunrise… especially along and south of I-70.  Our initial forecast for Indianapolis is 1-3″ between midnight and 7pm Monday.  This comes with a disclaimer we have LOW confidence on this region due to forecast proximity to the snow/no snow zone… and the potential for the system to come farther north and exceed the forecast range.

Snowfall amounts increase rapidly within in a rather sharp north-to-south snowfall gradient between Indianapolis and Louisville.  For now we have a 3-5″+ forecast for Bloomington to Columbus with 5-7″ expected from Seymour-Bedford to North Vernon.

The snow bulls eye may very well fall over Kentucky where cities like Louisville, Lexington and Frankfort may exceed a foot of snow.  Traveling south of the Ohio River Monday will be dangerous if not impossible.

HEADLINES HEADLINES 2 PLANNER TONIGHT PLANNER MONDAY

A prolonged period of unseasonably cold temperatures continues in the wake of this system.  There are several morning in the forecast near or below zero.  We’re also monitoring a wintry system for local impact next weekend.  Stay tuned for updates – Sean Ash

7DAY

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