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Jun
25

Soggy Set Up To Start The Weekend

Posted By · June 25, 2015 at 7:57 pm

A few splash and dash showers are possible this evening… but much of the central part of the state remains dry.  We’ll monitor the southwestern corner of the state closely as storms in southern Illinois continue to increase and spread southeastward.  Sullivan, Greene and Lawrence counties are under a Severe T’Storm Watch until 1am.

WATCH WATCH 2 HRRR 10PM HRRR 1AM HRRR 8AM

Additional scattered heavy showers and storms are possible going into Friday morning.  We also anticipate more dry hours tomorrow before a low pressure begins to intensify along the Ohio River.  As this happens rain and storms will increase across Central Indiana… becoming widespread by sunset and dropping locally heavy rain amounts.


 

PLANNER FRIDAY RPM FRIDAY 5PM RPM FRIDAY 7PM

Friday night into Saturday morning will be wet and breezy as this system continues to intensify heading into Ohio.  A stiff northeasterly wind wrapping as the center of the low will make for blustery conditions Saturday morning.  Latest model trends are for a slower departure of this system and I’m leaning toward a wetter solution overall to Saturday.

RPM FRIDAY 11PM RPM SATURDAY 5AM RPM SATURDAY 8AM RPM SATURDAY 4PM RPM RAIN MODEL RAIN

We’re still targeting Sunday as the best day of the 7 day forecast… but it also includes an chance of rain heading toward sunset.  Stay weather aware the next 24-36 hours – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Jun
25

Wettest Month In A Year And More Rain On The Way

Posted By · June 25, 2015 at 4:55 pm

You don’t need me to tell you that’s it’s been a wet June thus far.  In fact, the early morning rainfall from heavy storms pushed Indianapolis’ monthly rainfall above 6″.  This is more than 2″ above the June monthly average and marks the wettest month in the city since last June when just over 7″ fell.

RAIN AMOUNTS JUNE STATS MODEL RAIN HEADLINES

 


Even higher totals occurred last night in west central Indiana where 3″+ dropped in parts of Vermillion, Parke and Putnam counties.  At this point we only widely scattered showers and storms this evening, but are monitoring conditions in southwestern Illinois/northern Missouri for storm initiation.  These storms would more likely have a higher impact on the southern half of Indiana and possibly produce some locally severe wind within the yellow shaded zone of the severe weather risk map.

VIS 1KM SPC DAY 1 HRRR 12AM HRRR 4AM PLANNER FRIDAY

Low pressure strengthening across the Ohio Valley Friday promises to deliver a rather wet and stormy stretch heading into the weekend.  Showers and locally heavy storms increase during the day tomorrow.  Much like this evening, cities in far southern Indiana stand the highest chance of severe storms where temperatures will be a bit warmer than the mid-70s over much of the viewing area.

RPM SATURDAY 6AM RPM SATURDAY 5PM PLANNER SATURDAY

We’ll be on the backside of this system early Saturday, but still under its damp and breezy influence.  A stiff northeasterly wind undercutting clouds and rain makes for an unpleasant start to the weekend.  But conditions should improve as the low moves away and this paves the way for the best day of the 7 day forecast on Sunday.  Comfortably cool lows in the 50s are followed by sunshine and 70s to finish the weekend.  By that time we’ll have earned it too!  Check back for updates – Sean Ash

RPM SUNDAY 6AM RPM SUNDAY 11AM PLANNER SUNDAY 7DAY

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Jun
24

Looking Like A Wet And Stormy Start Thursday

Posted By · June 24, 2015 at 9:56 pm

Confidence is growing that a cluster of storms currently over Iowa will blossom into a full-fledged summer time storm complex.  Latest hi-res modeling suggest Central Indiana could be in the cross-hairs of this complex during the Thursday morning commute.

RADAR SPC DAY 1 HRRR 6AM THURSDAY

If current modeling verifies this system would arrive after 4am but linger into late morning… with gusty wind and potentially flooding rainfall in the 1-3″ range for some.  While we don’t envision widespread severe, localized severe wind gusts are certainly very possible depending on it track.

HRRR 8AM THURSDAY HRRR 930AM THURSDAY HEADLINES TONIGHT RISKS PLANNER THURSDAY

Rain and storm coverage should subside by early afternoon.  This system unfortunately complicates the forecast and severe weather set up Thursday afternoon.  It remains to be seen how quickly leftover cloud cover departs and which areas will get a chance to recover in the atmosphere.  At this point I’m leaning toward the highest to warm, destabilize and produce severe storms would be south of I-70.  But this is highly subject to change.  Remember… the longer clouds hang around tomorrow, the less of chance we’ll have for storm redevelopment.

HEADLINES THURSDAY SPC DAY 2 RPM FRIDAY

Another system enters the Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday and delivers another soaking rainfall.  This feature will be intensifying as it curves northeastward… ultimately bringing cloudy, damp, breezy conditions to start our weekend.

Stay tuned for updates and stay weather aware in the morning – Sean Ash

RPM SATURDAY 7DAY

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Jun
24

Heavy Storms Tonight And Thursday

Posted By · June 24, 2015 at 4:34 pm

Though we’ve had some sprinkles and light showers, clouds now have more bark than bite and Central Indiana should remain rain-free until 8-9pm. A wave of rain and thunder coming out of Iowa may cross into the state prior to midnight, but we’re still thinking the main rain and wind event will be much later tonight.

HEADLINES TONIGHT HRRR TODAY 10PM HRRR 12AM THURSDAY HRRR THURSDAY 5AM

We should definitely have some gusty storms, but the risk for severe weather (>=58mph gusts) appears to be low, but areas west of US 31 could have a severe wind gust with stronger storms.  Heavy rain is our main issue with localized flooding and flash flooding possible in areas by the Thursday morning commute.

SPC DAY 1 FLASH FLOOD WATCH HEADLINES THURSDAY

Thursday begins wet and stormy and the residual cloud cover and any lingering rain complicate the afternoon forecast. Despite there being a risk of severe storms tomorrow, there is much uncertainty on the evolution of the early day storm complex.

Areas where clouds linger will be significantly cooler in the 70s, compared any areas of sun that shoot into the upper 80s/lower 90s. For now we’re targeting the region south of I-70 for the best chance of warming up and higher risk of severe storms in the afternoon.

SPC DAY 2 FRIDAY FUTURETRAK

Based on latest model guidance we had to make significant changes to the Friday/Saturday morning forecast… which now includes a much higher chance of rain/storms and possibly heavy rain amounts.

This weekend will be roughly 10 degrees cooler than normal with highs in the mid-70s. Saturday may begin damp for some but should dry out by afternoon as low pressure moves east of the state. Sunday remains the best day this weekend before scattered storm chances return next week.

7DAY

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Jun
23

Great Night But Eyeing Next Wave Of Heavy Storms

Posted By · June 23, 2015 at 4:56 pm

What a difference 24 hours makes!  Courtesy of a refreshing north-northwesterly wind our Muggy Meter continues to drop into the comfortable range as dewpoints gradually fall into the 50s.

TEMPS DEWPOINTS DEWPOINT CHANGE MUGGY METER PLANNER EVENING

This marks the arrival of less humid air that sets Central Indiana up for an awesome evening and much cooler night.

Under a clear sky and light wind temperatures fall into the 50s and lower 60s.  Sky conditions tonight make it possible to see the Northern Lights from a severe geomagnetic storm impacting the Earth’s magnetic field.  More than a dozen states were able to see the lights last night while our sky was cloudy.

PLANNER TONIGHT LOWS TONIGHT PLANNER TOMORROW HIGHS TOMORROW

A comfortable start Wednesday morning with ample sunshine.  Cloud debris from upstream storms will spill into the state as the day wears on, and some late day showers or storms are possible near the Illinois/Indiana border.

We’re on severe storm watch again late Wednesday night into Thursday and Central Indiana has been highlighted for damaging wind potential.  At this time it appears a severe storm complex will develop near Iowa and intensify as it marches eastward.  Be weather aware tomorrow night and during the day Thursday.

SPC WEDNESDAY RPM WEDNESDAY 6AM RPM WEDNESDAY 4PM RPM THURSDAY 2AM RPM THURSDAY 7AM RPM THURSDAY 10AM SPC THURSDAY PATTERN

A cooler than normal pattern looks to establish in the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region late week and into the weekend.  After morning storms Friday we anticipate mainly dry conditions until early next week.

Please check for updates on timing, coverage, and severity of the storm complex – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Jun
22

Tornado Watch North Of Indy Metro Area Until 3am

Posted By · June 22, 2015 at 9:44 pm

We continue to monitor storms upstream in Illinois that have had a history of producing tornadoes and damage.  These storms are moving quickly toward the east-southeast and will cross into northwestern Indiana by midnight if they hold together.

HEADLINES RISKS WATCH

Though there remains uncertainty on how well they’ll hold together overnight, the risk of tornadoes and damaging wind remains in place for the northern half of the state.

Due to ample wind shear and moderate instability in place across northern Indiana, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for cities like Lafayette, Monticello, Peru, Delphi and Logansport until 3am.  Please keep your weather radios on tonight and we also recommend downloading our free Skytrak13 Weather app to keep updated on the severe weather potential.

TORNADO POTENTIAL WIND POTENTIAL HRRR 1AM HRRR 3AM HRRR 6AM

The severe weather risk should end by sunrise as instability decreases and storms move away from a cold front that’s helping these storms overcome a warm air lid in the atmosphere.  Stay tuned for updates – Sean Ash

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Jun
22

Monitoring Severe Storm Potential For Later Tonight

Posted By · June 22, 2015 at 4:38 pm

It’s a humid afternoon in Central Indiana with dimmed sunshine courtesy of cloud debris from storms in Iowa and Michigan.  You can expect mainly dry conditions for much of the area, though we can’t rule out of few spotty storms.

PLANNER EVENING HEADLINES RISKS

The northern half of Indiana remains under a threat area for severe storms…with damaging wind being the most likely element and the timing primarily overnight.  We’ll need to monitor Iowa/northern Illinois for developing storms that would congeal into a line or multiple lines of storms.

RPM TODAY 5PM RPM TUESDAY 12AM RPM TUESDAY 1AM

There are still uncertainties on how far south these storms will remain severe, but at this point we can not take the Indy metro area out damaging wind potential.  However northwestern Indiana have the highest probabilities of damaging wind and/or a tornado where wind shear and instability will be maximized.

Latest hi-res model data suggest these storms wouldn’t arrive until after 10pm and exit prior to sunrise tomorrow.  Stay weather aware and keep your weather radios on tonight.  Watches and warnings are very possible.

RPM TUESDAY 3AM SPC WIND POTENTIAL TORNADO POTENTIAL TUESDAY HEADLINES PLANNER TUESDAY

Tuesday begins cloudy, humid with spotty showers but finishes much brighter and less humid.  Highs in the 80s tomorrow give way to lows nearing 60 degrees Wednesday morning.  Wednesday should be a pleasant day before the next wave of storms hits Wednesday night into Thursday.

RPM TUESDAY 9AM RPM TUESDAY 4PM RPM WEDNESDAY 5PM RPM THURSDAY 6AM 7DAY

Confidence is growing on an overall pattern change developing later this week that leads to cooler than normal highs – Sean Ash

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Areal Flood Warnings remain up for northern Indiana, including the cities of Marion, Peru, Bunker Hill, and Hartford City.  This area has been in the line of fire of rounds of heavy rain over the past seven days… much of which (3-5″) occurred in the past 72 hours.  Meanwhile Southern Indiana has been spared and remains parched in comparison with some areas only seeing an inch of rainfall the entire month.

FLOOD WARNING RADAR ESTIMATES DROUGHT MONITOR RPM TODAY 6PM

As we’ve mentioned many times in the past several days… that’s about to change!  Scattered heavy storms passed across areas south of I-70 earlier today and a new round of scattered storms is underway.  These storms increase later this evening and are the first of many waves of heavy rain/locally strong storms between now and Saturday evening.  This is all part of the moisture feed from the Gulf of Mexico that continues to move along the periphery of a brutal hot dome that’s anchored in the east-southeastern U.S.

RPM WEDNESDAY 3AM RPM WEDNESDAY 6AM RPM WEDNESDAY 4PM SPC PLANNER WEDNESDAY BILL NOW

This is all part of the moisture feed from the Gulf of Mexico that continues to move along the periphery of a brutal hot dome that’s anchored in the east-southeastern U.S.  The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill, which is now onshore, become a big piece to our forecast puzzle later this week.  There is fairly good consensus in medium range modeling to bring the center of Bill’s circulation into the Ohio Valley late Friday into Saturday.

HOT DOME BILL RAINFALL

There is fairly good consensus in medium range modeling to bring the center of Bill’s circulation into the Ohio Valley late Friday into Saturday.  Areas east-northeast of the circulation center track stand the best chance of seeing the highest rainfall totals.  The images below are the latest computer model guidance for rainfall.

EURO RAIN RPM RAIN GFS RAIN NAM RAIN

While there is wiggle room on amounts… there is growing confidence that many areas could see 3-5″+ rainfall the next 5 days.  This brings a heightened risk of flooding and flash flooding.  The east side of the circulation is also a favored region for low-topped storms that can produce brief tornadoes in a highly sheared environment.  We’ll need to monitor conditions and the track closely.  Please check back for updates.

JET STREAM NEXT WEEK

Long range guidance hints that this time next week the hottest air of the year could be arriving as the hot dome sets up over the Ohio Valley.  If this verifies mid-90s and heat indices at/above 100 degrees are very much in play.  We’ll update in the coming days – Sean Ash

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