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Jul
08

Spotty Showers Next Few Hours Then Pleasant Air Arrives

Posted By · July 8, 2014 at 4:37 pm

Just a few isolated showers have popped during daytime heating along and ahead of a cold front that will bring a return to pleasant conditions to central Indiana.

SKYCAM

The Indianapolis Skycam shows fair weather clouds and blue sky this afternoon… with breezy conditions as gusts have neared 30mph at times.  Shower chances are low in the 20-30% range, so most backyards stay dry this evening.

DEWPOINTS2

Temperatures are only the lower 80s but it feels much warmer due to lingering muggy air.  However, the passage of a cool front this evening will push the Muggy Meter back into the comfortable range for several days.

DEWPOINTS

With dew points falling into the 50s, you’ll be able to open the windows at night and allow fresh air to cool the house.

MUGGYMETER

The dry air arrives just in time to push isolated showers south of Victory Field before the Indianapolis Indians’ first pitch at 7:05pm.  If you’re heading to the game expect a pleasant breeze and mild temperatures in the 70s.

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Any showers diminish quickly this evening and clouds should clear early too.  The only fly-in-on-the-ointment overnight and early Wednesday will be areas of dense fog that develop due to the early morning and lows dropping to near 60 degrees.

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Any fog should quickly diminish to allow for a mostly sunny midday and just some fair weather clouds during the afternoon.  Expect mild highs in the mid to upper 70s tomorrow with gusty thermal winds developing to the tune of 10 to 25mph.

HIGHS PLANNER2

More spectacular summer weather is in store for Thursday and Friday across the Ohio Valley.  It appears our next storm chance will be Friday night into Saturday morning… though the verdict remains out on exact timing and coverage at this point.

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Definitely nothing to cancel any weekend plans over at this point, but we’ll adjust the forecast as needed heading into the weekend.  Meanwhile… long range ensemble data continues to hint of another fall-ish air mass over the Ohio Valley next week that would produce temperature anomalies of 10-15 degrees Tuesday through Thursday.  It’s far away, but another trend we’re eyeing closely.  It is reflected in the 7 day forecast with highs dropping back into the 70s after a round of heavy storms next Monday.

ENSEMBLE

7DAY

Have a great evening and enjoy the refreshing air this evening – Sean Ash

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Jul
07

Strong Storms For Some This Evening And More On The Way

Posted By · July 7, 2014 at 4:38 pm

Widely scattered heavy storms continue to dot central Indiana this afternoon and early evening.  Though lightning and downpours appear to be the main threats today, locally severe wind and hail are possible in stronger storms…especially southwestern Indiana where the atmosphere is most unstable.  We’ve heard of numerous trees down in Brazil from likely downburst storm winds earlier today.

THREATS SPC

Storms may diminish in a few hours and many may not see a drop of rain until Tuesday morning.

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Computer model consensus indicates widespread storms to impact the area again early Tuesday, with potential for damaging wind and certainly heavy rain that will impact the morning commute.

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It’s uncertain how much redevelopment will occur after this complex passes to the east by midday.  Additional storms are possible Tuesday afternoon but at this point it appears the best instability and wind shear will be displaced farther south along the Ohio River.  But stay tuned for potential changes.

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Less humid air arrives Tuesday night and paves the way for sunny, pleasant conditions Wednesday into Friday afternoon.  Lows may drop into the 50s Thursday morning and highs in the 70s look likely for a few days.

Warmer, humid air builds in for the weekend and may trigger new storms beginning as early as Friday night.  However…there should be plenty of dry hours this weekend too.  Stay weather aware friends – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Jul
06

Muggy Air Fuels Storms Monday and Tuesday

Posted By · July 6, 2014 at 5:12 pm

You can definitely feel the difference in humidity this afternoon, with the Muggy Meter now well in the uncomfortable range.  This is due to an influx of gulf moisture as dew points are 15-20 degrees higher than 24 hours ago.  Sticky stuff is here to stay for the next 48 hours and will fuel possibly severe storms and areas of heavy rain Monday and Tuesday.

NOW LOWS

TONIGHT:

Another byproduct of the humid air is uncomfortable lows near 70 in the morning.  While isolated showers are possible this evening, it appears the best chance of rain and storms will be after midnight and just prior to sunrise.  We’ll need to monitor storms in the western Great Lakes to see if they’ll be able to hold together and make it into central Indiana after midnight and before sunrise.  It’s questionable a this point, but don’t be surprised to hear some rumbles of thunder overnight.

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MONDAY:

Strong to severe storms are possible Monday as a cold front approaches central Indiana… and much of the state is under a warranted Slight Risk.  With tropical air in place, areas of heavy rain are likely in any storms that develop.  All modes of severe weather are possible tomorrow, but there is much uncertainty on time/location of storm initiation after early morning storms and cloud debris.  Stay weather aware tomorrow.

SPC HIGHS PLANNER

An unsettled pattern remains in place Tuesday with storms likely and more heavy rain to start the day.

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The aforementioned front settles south of the Ohio River mid-week… allowing less humid air and sunshine to return Wednesday into Friday.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Jul
03

Picture Perfect Holiday Weekend

Posted By · July 3, 2014 at 5:00 pm

We hope you’re enjoying this fall-ish afternoon in central Indiana.  After a few early day sprinkles and showers, you couldn’t ask for a better July afternoon.  Sun and clouds with high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s… a good 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

NOW

Under the center of Canadian high pressure overnight we’re assured of our coolest start to July 4th in some 18 years.  Lows tonight will easily drop into the 50s and the aforementioned high keeps the sky sunny tomorrow with pleasant highs in the mid to upper 70s.

4TH LOWS PLANNER HIGHS

Friday evening will arguably be one of the best weather set ups for fireworks in recent memory.  A clear sky, light wind and comfortable temperatures in the 65 to near 70 degree range.  Enjoy and please be safe tomorrow.

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As nice as our weather is… it couldn’t be worse right now for the Carolina coast.  Hurricane Arthur continues to strengthen and will likely become a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall overnight/early Friday morning between Wilmington and Cape Hatteras.

ARTHURRADAR

Radar and satellite imagery shows a healthy eye wall and numerous squalls coming ashore in the northeast quadrant of Arthur.  One saving grace may be the forward speed over 10mph and should accelerate more tonight.

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The same high pressure system bringing fall-like weather to Indiana eventually pushes Arthur away from the eastern seaboard.

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Here at home the comfortable air mass hangs around for much of the weekend and keeps the sky sunny Saturday and the first part of Sunday.  You’ll likely notice an increase in humidity Sunday afternoon, but we’re expecting rain-free conditions until after midnight Sunday.

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An active weather pattern returns early next week with the potential for heavy storms Monday.  Have a great holiday weekend – Sean Ash

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Jul
02

Refreshing Breeze Brings Coolest Air In Over Two Weeks

Posted By · July 2, 2014 at 6:56 pm

A wind of change continues to blow across central Indiana today behind the first of two cold fronts. Temperatures are nearly 10 degrees cooler and most importantly the Muggy Meter is getting comfortable as dew points fall below 60 degrees.

PLANNER LOWS

The second front arrives this evening with perhaps an isolated shower or sprinkle, but delivers our driest air since June 15th.  You can open the windows and give the A/Cs a break tonight as lows drop into the 50s Thursday morning.

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Clouds and sun will battle for sky supremacy Thursday, and a breezy northwest wind ensures temperatures stay in the low to mid 70s… our coolest day in over two weeks.

HIGHS

Heads up if you or someone know has holiday travel plans to the eastern seaboard for this weekend.  Tropical Storm Arthur continues to strengthen and will likely reach hurricane status this evening.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the South Carolina coast and Hurricane Warnings for the outer banks of North Carolina.  Arthur may be a strong Category One hurricane when it reaches the coast Friday.

ARTHUR

An upper level trough that’s delivering our cool down will ultimately steer Arthur away from the U.S. mainland.

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The core of Canadian high pressure arrives Friday morning and paves the way for a sunny 4th of July.  Expect comfortable lows Friday again in the 50s which will be one of the cooler starts to a 4th in many years.  Highs for the holiday will be pleasant in the 70s.

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Evening conditions will be ideal for fireworks Friday evening, as it will be clear with a light wind and temperatures in the 60s.

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The pleasant air carries over into the weekend, and we’re still expecting mostly sunny days and highs ranging from near 80 Saturday to the mid/upper 80s Sunday.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

7DAY

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While conditions remain damp, and at times stormy south of I-70, the cloud canopy from this feature offered the ideal backdrop for one of our better sunsets in some time.

RADAR

Southern Indiana will remain damp the next few hours with occasional rumbles of thunder.  The dividing line appears the ole I-70 corridor.  Nothing severe this evening, but some rather vivid lightning at times.  As mentioned the combination of the cloud deck, rain and setting sun provided a picturesque scene for many in the Indianapolis metro and north.  From double rainbows to crepuscular rays… it was fantastic.  Thanks for sharing.  Below are some of the fantastic shots (in no particular order) and scroll down for the forecast.  Click to enlarge:

SUNSET_INDIANAPOLIS

SUNSET_FRANKFORT(photo courtesy of Meghan Young / Frankfort)

SUNSET_LIZTON (photo courtesy of Bob D. / Lizton)

RAINBOWSHELBYVILLE(photo courtesy of Renee Theobald / Shelbyville)

SUNSETWESTFIELD(photo courtesy of Amy Simon / Westfield)

SUNSET_RUSHVILLE(photo courtesy of Shannon Cagle / Rush County)

CRAWFORDSVILLE(photo courtesy of Shelle K. / Crawfordsville)

RAINBOWBROWNSBURG (photo courtesy of Eric Teske / Brownsburg)

RAINBOWBROWNSBURG_2 (photo courtesy of Brian Jessen / Brownsburg)

SUNSET_ZIONSVILLE (photo courtesy of Bill McMillan / Zionsville)

RPM

Rain departs by midnight and our forecast focus shifts to the well advertised shot of unseasonably cooler air.  Morning lows Wednesday drop into the 60s with highs struggling to return to the upper 70s for most.

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The combination of cool air and the high July sun angle will create instability showers during peak heating… but on an isolated basis.

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If you like tomorrow the best is yet to come.  Lows drop into the 50s Thursday morning and stretch of sunshine arrives just in time for the 4th of July weekend!

7DAY

Enjoy the break from jungle humidity and soak up the fresh air central Indiana… you’ve earned it.

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As expected it’s been a quiet afternoon thus far for central Indiana… just hot and humid with temperatures in the 80s and heat indices in the 90s.  We will monitor storms in southern Illinois for upstream impact in southern Indiana where damaging wind is possible for cities like Bedford, Seymour and North Vernon that are under a Slight Risk for severe storms.

WATCH SPC

There is Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11pm for the Evansville area, and it’s conceivable this watch is pushed farther east as storms grow.  The greatest wind potential will be along the Ohio River but can’t ruled out for the cities I mentioned above.  After this evening we get ready for refreshing air but patience is still required.

RPM

While severe storms stay well south of Indy, I can’t rule out some of the rain debris sneaking up to the I-70 corridor.  Rain and storm chances quickly diminish after dark when the disturbance passes to the east.

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Lows tonight stay muggy in the upper 60s but you’ll feel the difference tomorrow when highs stay in the 70s!  Cool air aloft and even modest daytime heating will allow isolated afternoon showers to develop…but many stay dry Wednesday.

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Patience will be rewarded tomorrow as dew points finally drop below the line of discomfort which is the 65 degree dew point mark.

DEWPOINT LOWS

Even cooler air hits Thursday morning when lows dip in the 50s!  You’ll be able to open the windows and turn off the A/Cs for a few days.  This is perfect timing for the 4th of July which still looks picture perfect.  Sunny and 70s Friday with a repeat performance Saturday.

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Heat builds Sunday into the early next week.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

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Jul
01

Latest On Severe Weather Potential

Posted By · July 1, 2014 at 12:15 am

The leading edge of strong to severe storms have crossed over the Illinois/Indiana border…producing widespread damage in Lake County with 80mph+ wind gusts.  It appears the strongest wind with this complex will again target the Michiana border.

WATCH2

Below is a rough estimated time of arrival (time of posting is 12:08am so subject to change) for cities in north-central Indiana.  Please note… it doesn’t mean the line will remain severe when it arrives but merely a gauge of when to expect thunder and lightning and the very least.

TRACK

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been extended farther east and south to include Frankfort, Tipton, Lafayette, Kokomo and Marion until 4am.

WATCH BARS

Damaging wind is a possibility, but I believe flooding rain and lightning will be the bigger threats for the viewing area as the storm weakens.

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If the remnants hold together it could get loud in the Indy metro area between 2am and 4am.

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This feature should depart the viewing area by sunrise and then gear up for another warm, humid day Tuesday.  I’m in the weather center with Kelly Greene until Chuck Lofton arrives monitoring the conditions.

 

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