Hang in there central Indiana. The pesky overcast will slowly, but surely, depart overnight and set up our brightest day of the week Friday. Between now and then expect plenty of gray and slightly warmer temperatures in the lower 60s despite the lack of sunshine.
You don’t have to go far to the west to hit 70 degrees today, and that warmth will ride a strengthening southwest wind into the state. The upper level system that’s delivering our dreary stretch continues its eastward movement and will take the cloud deck with it.
The breeze picks up tonight into Friday morning… helping keep overnight lows in the lower 50s despite the lack of an insulating low cloud deck. Expect a bright morning commute and rapid rise into the 60s by noon. Highs tomorrow will near 70 and some locations may actually climb into the 70s.
Enjoy the one day warm up as a new surge of cool air arrives Friday night into Saturday morning. This air mass riding over Lake Michigan will drive down low cloudiness during the day Saturday, and possibly some lake effect sprinkles/rain showers.
Clouds clear Saturday night and the wind goes calm as high pressure settles over the Ohio Valley. The end result is lows in the lower to mid 30s Sunday morning and patchy frost at the very least. If this trend continues you can expect Frost Advisories to be issued for Sunday morning.
Colts tailgating looks chilly early in the morning but we’ll bask in a good dose of sun Sunday. Kickoff temperatures will be in the mid-50s. Showers return Monday along a new cold front that keeps us cool much of next week. Have a great evening – Sean Ash
Heavy rain, and thankfully not severe weather, is the mark left on central Indiana by an October storm that produced over 300 preliminary storm reports the past 24 hours in the eastern U.S. We mentioned in this blog several days leading up to the event that the overnight timing and limited instability might lessen the blow for us. Indeed that was the case. If this storm arrived earlier during peak heating we likely would’ve had more reports locally.
Rain amounts since midnight have been in the half inch to inch range, with two day totals nearing 2″ in some locations.
Steady rain is now well east of Indiana, but spotty showers continue to pivot around an upper level storm over central Illinois. This feature delivers a rather cloudy, damp Wednesday with periods of drizzle and showers.
Temperatures will not budge tomorrow due to a healthy layer of overcast. Morning lows slowly drop into the lower 50s and highs only make it back into mid to upper 50s. Rumbles of thunder can’t be ruled out Wednesday either and small hail is possible in any stronger cells that emerge.
We’ll be on the back side of the system Thursday and showers become less numerous. Friday still appears to be the pick of the week with highs jumping into the upper 60s with a breezy south-southwest wind and sunshine.
It’s a one day warm up with a return to cooler air for the weekend. Highs this weekend drop back into the 50s and lows fall into the 30s Sunday morning. The pattern next week remains cooler than normal and the coldest air of the season is possible the second half of the week.
Have a great evening – Sean Ash
The leading of a line of heavy rain and locally severe wind continues to push northeast into central Indiana. Heavy rain is likely area wide tonight and locally severe wind or brief tornadoes are possible.
Much of the area remains under a Tornado Watch until 1am, including Indianapolis, Muncie, Bloomington and Columbus. If any spin-ups occur it will be on the leading of the line. This line will arrive in the Indianapolis metro area around 10-10:30pm.
Flooding and Flash Flooding are bigger concerns overnight due to torrential rains that may exceed 1″ in some locations. Use caution while driving tonight and early Tuesday morning.
Remain weather aware until we can sound the all clear – Sean Ash
A line of strong to locally severe storms continue to move toward Indiana. Within the past hour the Storm Prediction Center issued a Tornado Watch for the southern half of Indiana, including the Indianapolis metro area. Tornado and damaging wind probabilities have been ramped up for the western half of the state due to very high directional and speed wind shear in place.
This puts the possibility of quick spin-ups embedded within the main line in play later this evening. A few Tornado Warnings are possible before midnight. We’re still expecting the leading of the line to cross over the Illinois/Indiana border between 7-8pm and race into the metro area before 11pm. We continue to bracket the hours of 8pm to 2am for the window of severe weather opportunity. Remain weather aware until we sound the all clear.
With the potent upper level storm spinning over Illinois Tuesday, central Indiana will be in the line for lines of storms… some of which could produces locally severe wind and quick spin-ups. The officially Slight Risk is in southeastern Indiana, but may be pushed farther west tomorrow to include more of the viewing area.
Wednesday and Thursday feature scattered shower and storm chances before cooler air arrives this weekend. Stay tuned for updates this evening – Sean Ash
It’s been a damp start to the week and some areas have already received a half-inch to an inch of rain. Though it won’t rain all day long, we do anticipate several more bouts of heavy storms between now and Tuesday afternoon.
We continue to bracket the hours of 8pm to 2am for damaging wind potential in central Indiana… though it remains uncertain how far east the squall line will maintain its severe characteristics. There’s a significantly higher threat of wind damage within the Moderate Risk severe area that stretches from the bootheel of Missouri to Louisiana. That’s where wind shear and instability will be maximized.
Locally we believe the area of greatest wind potential will be south-southwest of Indianapolis, but very subject to change. This is a region that likely catches the coma head of the bowing line before it begins to weaken. The remainder of the overnight will be dealing with residual heavy rain from the line. Areas of flooding and flash flooding are possible.
Additional heavy storms are likely by the Tuesday morning commute and severe storms, including quick spin-ups, remain in play tomorrow as well. The Storm Prediction Center may upgrade the eastern half of Indiana to a Slight Risk Tuesday. Flooding may be the biggest threat with an additional 1-3″ possible in some areas. It’s a good idea to clear drains of any leaves to help ease the situation.
Unsettled conditions remain in place Wednesday and Thursday as the upper level storm spins around the Ohio Valley. Widely scattered, to at times numerous, showers and thunderstorms occur Wednesday into Thursday morning.
Stay weather aware and remember to download the WTHR Weather App.
Overall central Indiana enjoyed a decent weekend of weather… though the clouds this evening serve notice of the advertised change early this week. That change includes a return to the 70s, potential of severe storms and the likelihood of a heavy rain.
Tonight: More bark than bite in the clouds today with only a few sprinkles or showers expected prior to 10pm. Due to the overcast and shifting wind to south, temperatures overnight will be considerably warmer than the past few mornings. Lows will be near 60 at midnight and then rise into the lower and middle 60s for the bus stop and ride into work.
Monday: The warmer wind will help set off scattered showers and rumbles of thunder tonight into the Monday morning commute. Pack the umbrella as scattered showers and storms are fair game anytime tomorrow. Despite mostly cloudy conditions and areas of rain, daytime highs tomorrow will climb into the 70s for the first time since October 3rd… and a good 10 degrees above normal.
A Slight Risk of severe weather remains in place for the western half of the state, including the Indianapolis metro area. This is primarily for storms late tomorrow evening (most likely after 8pm) and into Tuesday. Lines of storms may produce severe wind, though it’s unclear if storms will be able to thrive in a stabilizing atmosphere tomorrow night.
Heavy rain appears likely Tuesday with some locations possibly seeing nearly 3″ of rain by Wednesday morning. Damaging wind and a slight tornado threat can’t be ruled out Tuesday either, though the risk is highly conditional on the amount of heating we see Tuesday.
More scattered showers and storms will circulate around the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Thursday before this system departs. Have a great evening – Sean Ash
Quite a change over the past 24 hours in central Indiana. From sunshine and near 70 Wednesday to the expected clouds, showers and raw 50s this afternoon.
This Evening and Tonight: Showers this evening should be mainly light, but make no mistake there will be a dampness to the feel outside. This is courtesy to nearly saturated air, clouds and a northeast wind. As mentioned in the blog Wednesday, it’s fair game at any time for showers between now and Friday evening… though the heavier concentration of rain-banding may set up farther south than today.
Friday: Lows Friday morning will be around 50 degrees in Indianapolis, with cooler lows in the lower 40s farther north where the air drys out a bit. Latest modeling suggests a high chance of showers from Indianapolis to the Ohio River Friday. Though the rain may not be heavy, it will likely be persistent and accumulate from a .10″ to possibly a .50″ before ending.
There should be a trend for the precipitation to end from northwest to southeast during the hours of Operation Football Friday evening. Pack the umbrella (especially games along and south of I-70/74) and layer up with temperatures in the lower 50s.
This Weekend: Saturday looks more and more promising for brighter conditions as high pressure and a northeast wind get a firmer control over Indiana. This would push clouds and the rain producing boundary south of the Ohio River. The timing couldn’t be any better if you’re attending the Ball State, Purdue and Notre Dame games this weekend.
All three games look mostly sunny and comfortably cool in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Take the sunglasses and a light jacket for the fourth quarter.
Sunday likely begins dry but scattered showers and storms quickly emerge by Sunday evening… marking the beginning of a wet/stormy stretch early next week. Though it’s to early to tell if we’ll experience severe storms with a vigorous upper storm, heavy rain seems likely at this point between Monday morning and Tuesday afternoon.
Long range signs hint of a pleasant stretch to follow the wet start next week. Stay tuned for updates – Sean Ash
Central Indiana welcome to the best day of the week, and possibly the best of the next 7 to 10 days. Severe clear conditions across much of the Ohio Valley will allow temperatures to comfortably settle into the middle and upper 60s. Just an ideal day for outdoor activities in early October.
Tonight and Thursday: Quiet, comfortable conditions prevail this evening before clouds increase after midnight. Showers are possible by the time you wake up Thursday morning. Though it won’t rain all day and everywhere tomorrow, showers are fair game from sunrise to sunset. Clouds, occasional raindrop and northeast wind lead to much cooler highs in the 50s Thursday.
Unsettled conditions continue into Friday, though there remains some uncertainty on exactly where the heaviest, steadiest rain-banding will set up. At this point I’m leaning toward a wetter solution for central Indiana Friday… including during the hours of Operation Football. Though it should be noted there is a wide range in rainfall output from the models we use to construct a forecast.
Enjoy the sunshine and check back for updates on timing, rain amounts and changes to the weekend forecast – Sean Ash