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Despite a reprieve from the heavy rain, flooding remains a concern for all of central Indiana.  There is more heavy rain potential overnight and it’s beginning to appear this round “may” have the most impact along and especially south of I-70.

Latest radar analysis (note image time is 7:53pm EDT) shows a linear feature erupting west of St. Louis.  Due to heavy rain from earlier today, and significantly cooler air in northern Indiana, this feature will most likely target the “best” atmospheric instability… which currently resides along and south of the Ohio River.  While extreme southern Indiana has a higher chance of damaging wind, increasing atmospheric lift overnight (and ample moisture) keeps flooding rain very much in play.

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We believe the southern half of Indiana has the highest chance of seeing another 1-2″ of rainfall, including Indianapolis.   Locally higher 3″+ totals are a possibility in south central Indiana if the modeled “training” of storms comes to fruition.  Please have a way to receive weather warnings, as much of this will take place while most are sleeping.

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Friday begins balmy in the 60s as overnight temperatures hold steady.  Expect mild conditions to prevail into midday but the passage of a cool front will deliver a different feel Friday afternoon, with temperatures dropping into the 40s.  One constant tomorrow will be wind!  Gusts may near 45mph and sustained wind will be in the 20-30mph range.

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We’re still expecting a relatively bright weekend with highs in the lower 50s Saturday and near 60 Sunday… though morning lows will be quite chilly near 30 degrees.  The next round of rain arrives Monday and another inch is looking likely area wide.

Long range indicators suggest our 1st 70 degree day could be on tap next Thursday… just in time for the Indianapolis Indians home opener.  Stay weather aware overnight.

7DAY

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Apr
02

Latest On Flood Watch and Severe Storm Potential

Posted By · April 2, 2014 at 7:08 pm

The latest wave of rain and thunder continues to impact southern Indiana, with heavy rain potential from Seymour to Bedford the next few hours.  It appears another complex of rain and thunder will emerge from the west by daybreak, setting the stage for a soggy start Thursday morning.  Heavy downpours may add time to your commute Thursday morning.

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This wave should depart by midday and lingering cloud cover may prohibit afternoon storm development tomorrow.

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But we’re still eyeing late Thursday night into the predawn hours of Friday for severe storm potential.  Damaging wind appears to be the main threat as a line of storms crosses the state, but embedded spin-ups along the line cannot be dismissed either.  The entire state is under a Slight Risk of severe storms during that time and Watch Boxes may be needed.

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Subject to change, but celluar type storms should congeal into a linear feature Thursday evening… and become our primary source for severe weather mainly between 12am-7am Friday.  At this time there is a medium threat for damaging wind gusts (>=58mph) and a low-end threat for tornadoes.  But overnight linear structures being fed by a modest low-level wind field have produced tornadoes in Indiana before.  Regardless… I have a way to get watches and warnings, and have your weather radio turned on.

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Flooding is a big concern due to waves of heavy rain that may reach 4″+ in some locations within the next 48 hours.  Be cautious and don’t drive over water-covered roads.

Expect a wet start Friday with early morning highs in the 60s, but temperatures tumble into the 40s Friday afternoon after the passage of a cold front.  We anticipate a dry weekend in the post-frontal air mass, with frosty mornings near 30 and pleasant highs in the 50s.  Have a great evening despite the rain.

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7DAY

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Apr
01

From Sun To Showers And Severe Storm Potential

Posted By · April 1, 2014 at 4:54 pm

Hopefully you had a chance to soak the beautiful sunshine in central Indiana Tuesday…with soaking rain becoming a big story the next 24 hours.  There is still some time to enjoy dry weather this evening, but an approaching area of showers and thunder impacts the I-70 corridor between 10pm and midnight.

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Showers become more numerous by the morning commute Wednesday with occasional periods of rain the rest of the day.

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Average monthly rainfall for April in Indianapolis is just under four inches… a total some places may see in a 72 hour time frame from Wednesday until Friday afternoon.

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We do not anticipate any severe weather tonight or tomorrow, but area monitoring conditions closely on Thursday.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed nearly all of Indiana under a risk for severe storms.  Current thinking is the timeline would be late afternoon into the predawn hours of Friday, with damaging wind the primary threat for central Indiana.  However, this is subject to change and we encourage you to check for forecast updates to both timing and severity.

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Due to the heavy rain component there will be a flooding risk for the entire region as well.

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A cold front sweeping across the state Friday will drag in cooler, drier conditions for the weekend.  Clouds increase Sunday evening and rain potential returns Monday.  Long range guidance suggests a return to colder than normal conditions next week.  Stay tuned and have a great evening.

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Mar
31

Another Mostly Sunny Day Tuesday Before Rainy Pattern Arrives

Posted By · March 31, 2014 at 4:34 pm

How did you enjoy one of the warmest days of the year thus far?  Courtesy of hazy sun and a stiff southwest wind, afternoon temperatures climbed into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

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A weak cold front brings a chance for a few showers after midnight and very early Tuesday.  But much of tomorrow will be similar… plenty of sun and mild highs well into the 60s.

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Significant changes occur during the middle and later half of the week.  Several waves of low pressure will ride along a frontal zone along the I-70 corridor… providing high chances of rain Wednesday, and heavy rain/strong storm potential Thursday and Friday.

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This far out there is much uncertainty on how unstable the atmosphere can get later in the week due to potential cloud cover and widespread rain.  But modeled moisture and wind fields would support strong to severe storms.  It’s something will monitor closely in the days ahead.  Rainfall “potential” currently is in the 2-4″ range from Wednesday to Friday afternoon.

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The passage of cold front pushes the rain threat south and east, and takes the mild air with it.  Expect a cooler weekend with highs near 50 Saturday and mid-50s Sunday.  Enjoy the great evening!

7DAY

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Mar
28

Saturday Snow Will Accumulate For Some

Posted By · March 28, 2014 at 4:41 pm

Clouds held tough today and kept temperatures stuck in the lower to mid 40s.  After a quiet, cool evening the forecast focus quickly shifts to the system we’ve been eyeing all week… and it will deliver some wet snow to Central Indiana Saturday.

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Precipitation begins as all rain by 4am Saturday but will mix to snow as colder aloft entrains into an area of low pressure riding along the Ohio River.  In some places, including the Indy metro, it will snow hard enough to overcome above freezing surface temperatures to accumulate.

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For now there’s a 50-60% chance of a 1-2″ slushy accumulation in the city, with possible higher amounts in eastern Indiana.

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With or without snow accumulation Saturday will be flat-out raw due to cold rain and/or snow and temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.  Sunday will be much brighter and highs climb back into the 50s to possibly lower 60s, and the warm up continues into next week.

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Monday and Tuesday look very pleasant before another series of storms embarks on the Ohio Valley.  Have a great weekend

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Mar
27

Gusty Storms Tonight and Snow Still In Play Saturday

Posted By · March 27, 2014 at 7:01 pm

Scattered showers and embedded thunder will continue overnight and we can’t completely rule out gusty wind due to a strong low-level wind field keeping 40+mph in play.

The timing of strongest gust potential appears to be between midnight and 4am as the leftovers of stronger storms currently over Illinois move across central/southern Indiana.

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Under a blanket of clouds and a southwest wind temperatures will rise to near 50 degrees and hold steady much of the night.  Much of the rain exits Central Indiana by 9am Friday, though overcast hangs tough until late afternoon.  Highs tomorrow will be in the lower 50s with breezy conditions.

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So some pretty pleasant conditions for basketball fans embarking on Indianapolis for the Midwest Regional Friday.  We’re still eyeing a rather raw set up for Saturday… with rain returning after 12am Friday night and becoming widespread by daybreak Saturday.  Computer models continue to hint that there may be enough cold air aloft to support a mix or changeover to all snow in some areas Saturday morning… perhaps enough for a slushy accumulation in some areas.  We have medium to low confidence on this happening at this point, but something we’re monitoring.

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7DAY

With or without snow Saturday, a northeast wind, cloud cover and cold rain at the very least will make for raw conditions with highs in the middle 40s.  Sunday is still the best day of the weekend with a mostly sunny sky and highs nearing 60.  It appears temperatures may make at a charge at 70 degrees Monday.  Stay tuned.

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Mar
26

Sun To Soggy Next 24 Hours With Raw Start To The Weekend

Posted By · March 26, 2014 at 4:33 pm

Despite a full dose of sunshine temperatures are running a healthy 15 to 20 degrees colder than normal, following our coldest morning in nearly two weeks.  Conditions remain tranquil, but cool, this evening with clear conditions until around midnight.

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Rain arrives for most by 7-8am and paves the way for a soggy start to Thursday.  It wouldn’t shock me to some sleet mixing with rain at the onset, but the atmosphere should sufficiently warm quickly enough for mostly liquid precipitation tomorrow.

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Due to limited/non-existent instability I don’t anticipate severe storms locally, but we’ll definitely hear the occasional rumble of thunder and some heavy downpours.  Within the deeper moisture fields and higher instability along the Mississippi River severe storms are possible Thursday and tomorrow night.

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Highs Thursday likely occur after 5-6pm and will near 50 degrees despite the cloud cover.  Tens of thousands of basketball fans will descend on Indianapolis for the Midwest Regional Friday and Sunday.  Though Friday begins cloudy and damp, the passage of a weak cold front will allow drier to return Friday afternoon.

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The finish of the day should be fairly nice with comfortable highs in the middle 50s.  But the break from precipitation won’t be long, as a new system we touched on in prior blogs quickly emerges by dawn Saturday.  Rain will mix with snow on the northwest/colder side of an area of low pressure riding across the Ohio River Valley.  We’re not expecting accumulation at this point, but can’t completely rule out a localized slushy covering by late Saturday morning.  With or without accumulation, Saturday will be damp and raw with cool highs in the lower to middle 40s.

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Sunday will easily be the better day of the weekend, as a brighter sky returns and highs near 60.  The pattern remains active next week with several storm systems set to impact the region between Monday and next weekend.  Have a great evening and thanks for reading the blog – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Mar
25

Sun and Snow Showers This Afternoon Followed By Active Pattern

Posted By · March 25, 2014 at 1:43 pm

Don’t let any sunshine today fool you, as it will actually help trigger more scattered snow showers this afternoon.  This wintry set up is due to unseasonably cold air aloft and surface “heating” that creates mid/upper level instability in the atmosphere… allowing snow shower to “pop” in scattered fashion.  Highs today will be in the middle 30s and a good 15 to 20 degrees below normal.  Gusty northwesterly wind pushes “feels like” temperatures into the teens.

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Clouds clear overnight and pave the way for low temperatures well into the teens for Wednesday morning.  We’re back to sunshine tomorrow, but highs again struggle to hit 40 degrees.

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No change to our soggy outlook for Thursday as the southwesterly flow pushes ample moisture into the region, and enough lift for some thunder too.  Rainy conditions persist into Friday morning before cold front temporarily pushes the rain out.

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There is a Slight Risk for severe storms to our west Thursday.  Though thunder is very likely Thursday into Friday morning, limited instability over Central Indiana should keep severe storm chances minimal.

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Though Friday afternoon and evening look dry, computer models now indicate a quick return to rain (and possibly snow over parts of Indiana) Friday night into Saturday.  This is a change from prior forecasts… but a needed change due to the latest data sets.

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The latest GFS and Canadian models continue to support the soggy Saturday scenario, with the GFS being cold enough for snow.  It’s too early to jump fully on board… but we’re definitely on it and will make adjustments to the forecast as needed.

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For now the first half of Saturday looks soggy and raw with highs in the 40s.  Sunday easily will be the best, and warmest, day of the weekend… with sunshine and highs climbing into the 60s.  We’re eyeing storm potential for Monday but it’s too far out any specifics or confidence at this point.  Have a great day.

7DAY

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