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Aug
24

Autumn Air Hanging Around Next Few Days

Posted By · August 24, 2015 at 4:32 pm

Autumn air conditioning in August?  That’s the case today and the next several days as Canadian air claims stake across the Ohio Valley.  Despite a bright sky daytime highs are in the mid-70s… 10 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago and below the average high.  Temperatures are some 10 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago and set the stage for a perfect evening of Indianapolis Indians as the begin their second to last home stand of the season.  Where did the summer go?!

24HR CHANGE TEMPS INDIANS PLANNER EVENING

The stiff breeze relaxes after sunset and with a clear sky allows temperatures quickly to drop overnight.  Lows around Indianapolis will be in the 52 to 55 range, areas away for the city’s urban heat island likely drop into the 40s a bit just before sunrise.  Long sleeves and light jackets needed again for the kids at the bus stop in the morning but sunshine will do its job quickly tomorrow.

TONIGHT LOWS TONIGHT

Tuesday will be a near carbon-copy with ample sun and mild highs in the mid-70s.  You really won’t notice much air mass change until late week and more specifically into the weekend.  Highs climb into the 80s beginning Saturday and may eventually flirt with 90 degrees this time next week.

PLANNER TOMORROW HIGHS TOMORROW

With 7 days left in the month, and meteorological summer, it appears the wet three month stretch will finish in 2nd place for wettest summers on record.  It’s slim pickings for rainfall in long range guidance as of now.  This is due to the current dry air mass in place and an expected transition to upper air ridging that promotes sinking air and predominately dry weather.  Though we’ve mentioned slight to isolated rain and storm chances this weekend… there is very little confidence in precipitation due to limited large scale forcing in the atmosphere.

SUMMER RAINFALL EURO RAIN GFS RAIN JET STREAM

Upper air ridging also promotes warming temperatures and it’s reflected in the mid to upper 80s in the later periods of the 7 day forecast.  It’s possible highs make a run at 90 degrees next week so stay tuned for updates – Sean Ash

JET STREAM 2 7 DAY

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Aug
23

Feeling Like Fall Again This Week

Posted By · August 23, 2015 at 10:10 pm

Noticeably cooler after the passage of another impressive August cold front.  A refreshing west-northwest breeze delivers one more shot of fall-like air that sends overnight lows into the lower and mid-50s toward sunrise.

DEW POINT OHV DEW POINT CHANGE

MUGGY METER LOWS TONIGHT PLANNER TONIGHT

Monday will be bright become breezy during the afternoon with gusts possibly nearing 30mph.  Expect cooler than normal highs in the 75 to 78 degree range with a good deal of blue sky.  Low temperatures will be even cooler Tuesday morning as many areas with from Indy’s urban heat island likely dropping into the 40s.

PLANNER TOMORROW HIGHS TOMORROW LOWS TUESDAY 7DAY

The latest fall-ish air mass lingers over the Ohio Valley for much of the week with the next rain/storm chance not in play until next weekend.  Give the A/Cs a break, keep the windows open and soak up the sunshine – Sean Ash

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Aug
23

A Few Evening Showers Before Fall-Like Air Returns Tonight

Posted By · August 23, 2015 at 4:06 pm

The Muggy Meter nears oppressive levels this afternoon prior to the passage of cold front this evening.  Humid air and the front trigger widely scattered showers and storms.  These will be quick-movers and produce gusty wind at times.

MUGGY METER TEMPS FRONT TEMPS

 
We expect the front to pass across the metro area between 7-8pm and put an end to storm chances.  A wind shift to the northwest with the frontal passage delivers much cooler air for the overnight into Monday morning.  Lows in the city drop into the mid-50s with rural areas nearing 50 degrees for lows tonight.

RPM SUNDAY 7PM RPM SUNDAY 11PM PLANNER EVENING TEMP TREND TONIGHT LOWS TONIGHT

Monday will be bright, breezy and cooler than normal with highs in the mid-70s.  Low temperatures will be even cooler Tuesday morning as many areas with from Indy’s urban heat island likely dropping into the 40s.  The fall-ish air mass lingers over the Ohio Valley for much of the week with the next rain/storm chance not in play until next weekend.  So give the A/Cs a break, keep the windows open and soak up the sunshine – Sean Ash

PLANNER TOMORROW RPM MONDAY 4PM HIGHS TOMORROW LOWS TUESDAY 7DAY

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Aug
22

Saturday Sun To Sunday Storms

Posted By · August 22, 2015 at 5:50 am

Another stellar day on tap in Central Indiana with comfortably cool temperatures this morning in the 40s and 50s.  Sunshine quickly warms the air into the 70s by midday and highs make it into the 80s by 5pm.

TEMPS PLANNER TODAY HIGHS TODQAY

You couldn’t write a better weather script for the opening act of the Colts tailgating season!  Sunshine, low 80s, comfortable humidity and a light wind with kick off temperatures in the 70s at 7:30pm and a decent chance of the roof being open this evening… though we don’t make that call.

It remains pleasant all evening long if you’re heading out to the last Saturday of the Indiana State Fair for the Rusted Root concert.  Due to increasing cloud cover late tonight temperatures won’t be as cool and we expect low to mid 60s when you wake Sunday morning.

COLTS PLANNER PLANNER EVENING RPM SUNDAY 7AM

A quick-moving cold front brings scattered storms to Central Indiana.  Subject to change… but the main timing of storms appears to be 12pm to 8pm.  That doesn’t mean it will be storming non-stop during that time, but that is the window that offers the highest chance of scattered storms over any given region in the viewing area.

RPM SUNDAY 3PM RPM SUNDAY 7PM PLANNER TOMORROW RPM SUNDAY FRONT

Another taste of fall-like air returns behind this latest cold front and sets us up for an extended period of dry, pleasant weather next week.  We little change in the air mass next week, expect daily lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s.  Hope you can join us on WTHR Weekend Sunrise from 6am to 10am.  Have a great day – Sean Ash

RPM MONDAY FRONT RPM MONDAY FRONT 2 7DAY

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Aug
20

Feeling More Like Fall

Posted By · August 20, 2015 at 1:09 pm

It’s a breezy day but the wind of change delivered refreshing air into Central Indiana and paves the way for fall-like weather the next 48 hours.  Under a partly cloudy sky, and with wind gusts between 20-30mph, highs today remain in the 70s… a good 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday.

24HR CHANGE PLANNER AFTERNON HIGHS TODAY

Any cloud cover quickly clears this evening and combined with a lightening wind allows temperatures to drop quickly after sunset.  Lows drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s for the Friday morning commute.  The clear sky will be optimal conditions for viewing the International Space Station flying over from 9:26-9:30pm… beginning in the western horizon and disappearing in the south-southeastern sky.  Good luck!

PLANNER EVENING LOWS TONIGHT

Long sleeves needed early tomorrow but plenty of sunshine pushes highs near 80 degrees Friday afternoon and it will be an ideal for the first installment of Operation Football Friday night!  Couldn’t ask for a better way to start the high school season.

HIGHS TOMORROW OPERATION FOOTBALL

The great weather continues Saturday if you have Colts tailgate plans for the preseason game against the Bears.  Our next chance of storms doesn’t arrive until Sunday afternoon along a quick-moving cold front.  Some of the storms could be strong but won’t last long.

This front delivers another shot of unseasonably cool air early next week and lows will drop into the 40s again for some.  Much of next week will feel like fall.  Have a great day and check back for updates – Sean Ash

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Aug
19

Storms This Afternoon Then Feeling Like Fall Tomorrow

Posted By · August 19, 2015 at 12:24 pm

Wednesday Midday Update:  Quiet for now but sunshine works against us as it destabilizes the atmosphere and aids in storm development this afternoon.  We expect a broken line of storms to increase along an approaching cold front with some possibly producing 50-60mph wind gusts.

 
HEADLINES TEMPS TEMPS OHV

The main timing of strong storm potential is 3pm to 8pm, but gusty wind switching showers continues overnight into predawn Thursday.  You’ll definitely notice a drop in temperatures tonight after the passage of the aforementioned front.

RPM TODAY 3PM RPM TODAY 5PM RPM TODAY 8PM PLANNER TONIGHT LOWS TONIGHT

Expect out the door temperatures in the 50s tomorrow and rather breezy conditions with gusts in the 20mph+ range.  Clouds should clear early in the morning to offer a period of mainly sunny conditions… but low clouds will develop and wind gusts remain strong Thursday afternoon with highs in the mid-70s.

PLANNER THURSDAY RPM THURSDAY 7AM RPM THURSDAY 4PM HIGHS TOMORROW

Under a clearing sky and light wind lows drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s Friday!  Friday is my pick of the week due to a limited wind and a beautiful blue sky.  Saturday is equally as nice and highs near 80.

LOWS FRIDAY HIGHS FRIDAY 7DAY

The next cold front triggers scattered storms on Sunday and is followed by an even cooler shot of air early next week.  Stay tuned for updates – Sean Ash

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Aug
18

Stormy At Times Next Two Days Before Cooler Air Arrives

Posted By · August 18, 2015 at 12:10 pm

Tuesday Midday Update: an area of showers and occasional thunder continues to impact northwestern Indiana but is slowly weakening.  We’ll need to monitor the remnant boundary laid down by this feature as it may serve as an igniter for additional storm development during peak heating this afternoon.

VIS IMAGE TEMPS HRRR 2PM

Otherwise there will be ample dry time to get outside today with intervals of clouds and hazy sunshine.  Humid highs in the mid-80s will be feel warmer due to the tropical component in the air mass blanketing the Ohio Valley.

HRRR 5PM HRRR 9PM RPM 5PM TODAY

We continue to monitor Wednesday for strong to severe storms… though the forecast for tomorrow remains a complicated one.  If the “modeled” morning clouds and storms verify this could limit potential atmospheric instability for the later in the day and lower severe chances.  However, if this feature doesn’t materialize and we’re able to warm into the mid and upper 80s (a possibility) then greater instability would materialize and team up with a strong wind field to up the ante on severe storm potential.  Until further notice we’re advising you stay weather aware tomorrow.

RPM WEDNESDAY 4AM RPM WEDNESDAY 10AM RPM WEDNESDAY 6PM

With or without severe weather rain and storms seem likely late Wednesday into predawn Thursday as a cold front arrives.  The passage of this front early Thursday delivers refreshing air and cooler than conditions.  Lows drop into 50s Thursday into Saturday mornings with comfortable highs in the mid/upper 70s to lower 80s.

RPM THURSDAY 7AM JET STREAM JET STREAM 2

Another front brings more storms Sunday but delivers yet another taste of cooler than conditions early next week… when lows drop into the upper 40s/lower 50s and highs in the mid 70s.  Stay tuned for updates – Sean Ash

JET STREAM 3 7 DAY

 

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Aug
17

Heavy Storms Developing

Posted By · August 17, 2015 at 1:38 pm

The switch has been flipped and convective initiation reached in Central Indiana with scattered heavy storms underway.  Heavy rain and lightning are primary threats in storms today, but gusty wind and hail are possible in storms with stronger cores.

(Click on image below to animate and courtesy of College of Dupage Meteorology)

HEADLINES

Here’s a link to the stream of Live Doppler 13 Radar and we encourage you to download the free Skytrak13 weather app too.

PLANNER AFTERNOON HRRR 3PM TODAY HRRR 6PM TODAY HRRR 10PM TODAY HRRR 2AM

Sun-driven storms diminish toward sunset this evening and tonight will be dry but areas of dense fog develop by the Tuesday morning commute.  Lows near 70 tomorrow creep into the 80s with intervals of overcast and partly sunny conditions.  Clouds and lack of lift Tuesday should limit shower and storm coverage to isolated.

PLANNER TONIGHT PLANNER TOMORROW  RPM TUESDAY 5PM SPC

Model guidance continues to show impressive jet stream dynamics arriving Wednesday that could possibly aid in severe storm development.  However there remains uncertainty on the timing of a strong cold front, amount of cloud cover where the greatest instability will be when the front arrives… all of which could limit the outcome of how strong/severe storms will be.

SPC 2 7DAY

Pleasantly mild air arrives behind this front Thursday evening and paves the way for the picks-of-the-week Friday and Saturday.  Another system brings storms back into the area Sunday.  Stay tuned for updates on the severe weather risk Wednesday – Sean Ash

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