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Oct
08

From Sunny To Showers Next 24 Hours

Posted By · October 8, 2014 at 1:15 pm

Central Indiana welcome to the best day of the week, and possibly the best of the next 7 to 10 days.  Severe clear conditions across much of the Ohio Valley will allow temperatures to comfortably settle into the middle and upper 60s.  Just an ideal day for outdoor activities in early October.

TODAY PLANNER EVENING

Tonight and Thursday:  Quiet, comfortable conditions prevail this evening before clouds increase after midnight.  Showers are possible by the time you wake up Thursday morning.  Though it won’t rain all day and everywhere tomorrow, showers are fair game from sunrise to sunset.  Clouds, occasional raindrop and northeast wind lead to much cooler highs in the 50s Thursday.

RPM RPM 4 RPM 3 RPM 2 PLANNER THURSDAY

Unsettled conditions continue into Friday, though there remains some uncertainty on exactly where the heaviest, steadiest rain-banding will set up.  At this point I’m leaning toward a wetter solution for central Indiana Friday… including during the hours of Operation Football.  Though it should be noted there is a wide range in rainfall output from the models we use to construct a forecast.

RAIN 7DAY

Enjoy the sunshine and check back for updates on timing, rain amounts and changes to the weekend forecast – Sean Ash

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Oct
06

Periods Of Spotty Strong Storms Next 36 Hours

Posted By · October 6, 2014 at 4:39 pm

Our latest round of widely scattered showers and heavy storms in central Indiana has a history of pea sized hail.  The next few hours it appears the strongest storms will impact southern Indiana where the greatest instability and wind shear will be maximized.

TEMPS 2 TEMPS

Temperatures have warmed into the mid and upper 60s at the surface… under-cutting an upper disturbance and cold air aloft.  Southern Indiana is being monitored for a potential Watch Box for large hail and locally severe wind gusts.

SPC THREATS

This latest disturbance will quickly depart the state by 8-9pm and set the stage for a quiet, cool night.  Under a clear sky, temperatures should quickly drop into the lower and mid 40s by sunrise Tuesday.

PLANNER EVENING RPM RPM 2

Tuesday will be a near carbon-copy of today that includes showers for the morning commute and scattered strong storms in the afternoon.  “Hailers” will again be possible in the stronger cells tomorrow with highs climbing into the lower and mid 60s.  Storms may linger a bit longer into the evening before departing by Wednesday morning.

RPM 3 PLANNER TUESDA RPM 4 RPM 5

This sets up our “pick of the week” on Wednesday.  We’re expecting mostly sunny conditions from start to finish and pleasant highs int the mid to upper 60s.  We advise you get any outdoor plans done then as we’re back to wet weather on Thursday.

RPM 6 RPM 7 HIGHS WEDNESDAY RPM 8

An easterly wind under clouds, rain and thunder leads to a raw day Thursday with highs struggling to hit 60 degrees.  It’s early, and there is some model timing differences, but we believe this batch of rain departs by kickoff of Operation Football Friday.  Friday night into early Saturday look nice but the active pattern continues early next week with another potent system impacting the Ohio Valley.

HIGHS THURSDAY 7DAY

Stay tuned for updates and a nice evening – Sean Ash

 

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Oct
05

Active Week Ahead

Posted By · October 5, 2014 at 5:20 pm

A cooler than normal pattern dominates the weather story for a good chunk of the eastern portion of the U.S.  Wrapping around a cold core low in southern Canada, and a northwest flow aloft, will be several quick-moving disturbances that provide several chances of showers and storms this week.

JET STREAM SATRAD

This Evening and Overnight:  Clouds and spotty showers kept temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than normal today in central Indiana.  Thankfully the breeze wasn’t as strong or persistent than Saturday.  Showers should diminish this evening as the first of many disturbances pushes east.  Clouds may diminish this evening but likely increase again by the Monday morning commute.  Lows drop into the lower and mid 40s Monday morning.

EVENING RPM RPM 2 RPM 3 RPM 4 BUSSTOP

Monday:  A new batch of scattered showers and storms develop tomorrow, and a few “hailers” are also possible in stronger storms.  Highs will be cool in the lower to mid 60s.  We’ll be back to dry Monday evening but another round of quick-moving showers and storms arrive by sunrise Tuesday.

MONDAY PLANNER RPM 5

This batch quickly exits by Tuesday night and sets us up for one of the better days of the week Wednesday.  That’s when the sky will be much brighter and highs make a run at 70 degrees.  This is quickly followed by yet another rain-maker Thursday… which looks wet, raw and cool.

RPM 6 RPM 7 7DAY

That system should depart before the start of this week’s Operation Football and next weekend looks to start dry and sunny.  Expect changes between now and then so check back for updates – Sean Ash

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Oct
02

Stormy Night Followed By Big Chill This Weekend

Posted By · October 2, 2014 at 4:38 pm

Enjoy the summer warmth while you can with an active 36 hours ahead for central Indiana.  Scattered storms move into the state early this evening and increase in coverage by midnight.

THREATS SPC

There remains a Slight Risk for locally severe wind gusts into early Friday morning… but heavy rain may be a bigger concern with Flash Flood potential due to “training” storms.  1-2″ rainfall drops in parts of the area by Friday sunrise.

RPM RPM 2 RPM 3 RPM 4 RPM 5 RAIN POTENTIAL

Friday begins wet and windy with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.  Steady rain may ease by early afternoon to allow for a gap between the next line of showers and embedded storms that develops along a secondary cold front.  Expect sustained wind in the 25-35mph range tomorrow, with higher gusts of 45-50mph possible.  Temperatures fall into the 50s by 7pm and into the 40s by 11pm.

PLANNER FRIDAY RPM 6 RPM 7 RPM 8

The coldest air in nearly six months arrives Saturday morning with lows in the 30s and wind chills at or below freezing.  Any morning sunshine quickly gives way to low cloud overcast and makes hitting 50 degrees Saturday afternoon a real struggle in most areas.  The record low maximum (49 / 1885) is within reach.

LOWS SATURDAY HIGHS SATURDAY

Our first frost of the season is possible Sunday morning if clouds clear enough and the wind diminishes.  Regardless lows drop back into the mid-30s and highs remain much colder than normal in the mid-50s.  There’s a daily afternoon/early evening shower chance Saturday into Tuesday.  Get ready friends… the chill is coming!  Be safe this evening – Sean Ash

7day

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Another quiet night on tap but we look west for the much advertised changes to our quiet weather pattern.  Strong to severe storms will weaken overnight but impact the morning commute, with rain and thunder crossing the Illinois state line by 6am.

RADAR RPM

Tonight:  Lows tonight will be much milder than the past several mornings with readings near 60 degrees when you wake up tomorrow.  Storms in the central Plains weaken overnight but some of their leftovers may creep toward Indiana by sunrise, or showers and storms may develop on top of the state as warm air surges northeastward.  These will impact the morning commute for some but will be below severe limits.  However it’s a good idea to send the kids to school with an umbrella.

RPM 2 RPM 3 RPM 4

PLANNER THURSDAY

Much of the afternoon may dry with highs soaring  into the 80s for one more time.  More widespread rain and storms arrive Thursday night into Friday morning… with the possibility of locally severe wind in some of the storms.  This is part of a potent weather system that’s loaded with wind energy.  It’s very possible the Slight Risk area, that only includes western Indiana, may be expanded farther east tomorrow.

SPC RPM 5 RPM 6

Due to limited instability, wind and rain will be the main threats with a highly conditional tornado probability.  Regardless it deserves our attention and will impact the entire area with wind and rain… and eventually the coldest air in months.

STORM THREATS

Our 10 day dry spell ends in a big way the next 60 hours with some areas seeing 1-2″+ rainfall by Saturday sunrise.

RAIN POTENTIAL

SPC 2 RPM 6 RPM 7 RPM 8

Operation Football Friday:  Several waves of showers and storms pivot across central Indiana Friday as the center of the storm spins over the eastern Great Lakes.  Expect wet, windy conditions for Operation Football and temperatures falling into the 50s by 8pm.

OPERATION FOOTBALL HIGHS FRIDAY

This Weekend:  Anyway you slice it… Saturday will be a raw, blustery and uncomfortable day.  Morning wind chills near the freezing mark and highs struggle to hit 50 degrees… with the record low maximum (49/1885) within reach.  Temperatures this weekend will be a good 25-30 degree colder than last weekend’s balmy 80s.

HIGHS SATURDAY TEMP TREND

Layer up if you’re coming downtown to the Circle City Classic Parade.  Since you’ll need a heavy coat for Colts tailgating, how about bringing an extra for our Coats For Kids Collection?

PLANNER SATURDAY COLTS

Sunday remains unseasonably cold with the chance of afternoon showers.  Several upper disturbances will ride the northwest flow aloft to bring daily afternoon shower chances into the middle of next week.

7DAY

Have a great evening and check back for updates – Sean Ash

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Sep
29

Coldest Air In Nearly Five Months On Tap This Weekend

Posted By · September 29, 2014 at 3:43 pm
Under a blanket of sunshine this afternoon central Indiana had its fourth day in a row with highs in the 80s and a good 10 degrees warmer than normal.  If you’re stuck at work don’t worry… the evening will be equally as nice and clear.
NOW PLANNER EVENING
We’re advising to soak up the sun and summer warmth if you’re not a fan of fall weather.  Big changes lurk later this week and temperatures will drop from 10 degrees above normal to 10 degrees (or more) below normal.
HEADLINES RPM RPM 2
Tonight:  A cold front will dive south out of the Great Lakes and bring an increase in clouds late tonight, and possibly areas of drizzle and showers early Tuesday morning.  Lows tonight return to the middle 50s and expect a comfortable start tomorrow.
RPM 3 RPM 4 RPM 5
Tomorrow:  Tuesday won’t be as warm due to the passage of the front and with intervals of clouds.  North of Indianapolis some cities may not hit 70 degrees tomorrow, while areas along and south of the I-70/74 corridors can expect middle 70s compared to lower 80s today.
PLANNER TUESDAY TEMP TREND RPM 6 RPM 7
We return to mostly sunny and near 80 degrees Wednesday before a stronger cold front approaches.  Rain chances ramp up Thursday, but despite the wet afternoon and evening highs climb well into the 70s.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY HIGHS THURSDAY RPM 8
The much advertised temperature tumble occurs behind the front and as the rain diminishes heading into Friday afternoon… when highs only make the middle 60s.  Temperatures this weekend will be our coldest since mid-May and be 20-30 degrees colder than this past weekend.
RPM 9 RPM 10
Highs Saturday likely will not make it out of the 50s.  Lows Sunday drop into the 30s for the first time this season and a good deal of low cloudiness accompanies this intrusion of early season cold.  There is much model uncertainty regarding shower chances this weekend.  For now our forecast is dry, but note this is highly subject to change the next few days.  Enjoy the summer warmth!
7DAY
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Sep
28

Summer Warmth To Chilly Air This Week

Posted By · September 28, 2014 at 5:14 pm

Our string of sunshine and unseasonably warm weather continues in the week ahead.  Sunday was the third day in a row of 80 degree highs, and we may tack on another two or three days in the 80s between now and Thursday.

NOW PLANNER EVENING LOWS TONIGHT

Tonight and Monday:  Another clear, pleasant evening is on tap as temperatures gradually cool into the lower and middle 50s by Monday morning.  Abundant sun quickly pushes temperatures into the 70s by midday tomorrow and highs near 80 degrees again.

SCHOOL WEATHER HIGHS SUNDAY MONDAY PLANNER RPM 2

A weak cold front moves in Tuesday, but likely will not have enough moisture to trigger showers.  However, it may have just enough northerly flow behind it to push lows back into the 40s and lower 50s Wednesday morning.

RPM

Clouds may increase late Wednesday but not before highs make another run at 80 degrees.  Thursday will be a day of transition with the arrival of a cold front.  Highs will remain mild in the 70s, but showers and storms increase.

THURSDAY NEXT WEEKEND

We’ll be back to reality behind this front with temperatures 30 degrees colder next weekend than this past Saturday and Sunday… with highs near 60 and patchy frost possible Sunday morning.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Sep
24

Sunny And Nearing 80 Heading Into Weekend

Posted By · September 24, 2014 at 11:47 am
While it’s wet along the eastern seaboard and in the central U.S., we continue to reap the rewards of a blocking high pressure system that’s parked over Indiana.
SURFACE
This is the main player in providing mainly clear conditions, seasonably chilly nights, and afternoons that will continue to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s this weekend.
NOW 24HR CHANCE
This Afternoon:  Temperatures today are running about 5 degrees warmer than the 72 degree high pace of Tuesday.  Under a blanket of sunshine we’re afternoon highs in the 75 to 77 range which is near the average high of 74.  Humidity remains quite comfortable as an easterly wind keeps the Gulf of Mexico out of play.
PLANNER AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY PLANNER EVENING
LOWS TONIGHT
Tonight and Thursday:  Though lows tonight might not be as cold as prior nights, it will still be jacket-worthy chilly in the morning for kids at the bus stop in the 46 to 52 range.  Another quick warm up on tap Thursday and temperatures make a serious run at 80 degrees during the afternoon.
PLANNER THURSDAY HIGHS THURSDAY HIGHS FRIDAY OPERATION FOOTBALL
Friday:  Unseasonably warm weather highlights the forecast for Operation Football Friday and this weekend with highs possibly in the 80s.  The warm air lingers into the beginning of October before an approaching cold front leads to wet, and possibly a stormy stretch in the October 1st-4th time frame.  The same upper level high pressure that’s providing our string of sunshine will slide east later next week to help pump Gulf Moisture northward.
NEXT WEEK RAIN POTENTIAL GFS
Long range models are picking up on the wet set up and both the American (GFS) and European models are spitting out over an inch of liquid the next 10 days.
RAIN POTENTIAL 7DAY
We’ll monitor closely for updates.  Prior to that there’s the possibility of Gulf Moisture and an upper level system bringing rain to the area Monday night into Tuesday.  Between now and then just enjoy some of the best weather across the country.  Have a great afternoon – Sean Ash
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