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Jan
14

Flurries For Some This Evening. Freezing Fog To Follow?

Posted By · January 14, 2015 at 2:44 pm

We’ve endured our coldest morning of the next week… but it was a bitter start for sure.  Areas north of I-74 in the deeper snow pack began well below zero, with Kokomo the coldest spot at -8.  The clear sky, calm wind, and Arctic air provided the ingredients for a blanket of hoar frost.  This phenomenon is when vapor instantaneously crystallizes to objects that are often times colder than the frost point.

LOWS THIS MORNING WEATHER PICS 2 WEATHER PICS

Viewers in Grant and Miami counties provided the picture proof of the spectacular show put on by nature this morning.  That snow pack up north kept many cities in the low teens and upper single digits for “highs” this afternoon.  Clouds increase from the west and there’s just enough energy to squeeze out some flurries and passing light snow showers… mainly north of Indy though.

SATRAD PLANNER EVENING

Though lows won’t be as cold tonight, it’s still certainly frigid by any standards.  Single digits up north contrasted by lows closer to 20 down south.  There may be enough to wind to prevent fog from forming again tonight.  But areas that clear will be susceptible for freezing fog by sunrise Thursday.

LOWS TONIGHT HIGHS THURSDAY

After some early morning low clouds we should finish the day with a bright sky tomorrow.  Highs make a run at freezing in Indy and possibly near 40 degrees for southern viewers.  A good 15 degrees colder up north, but chipping away at the snow pack for sure.

PLANNER THURSDAY LOWS SATURDAY

The overall pattern remains quiet the rest of the week and we’re still anticipating highs in the 40s Saturday despite a good deal of cloudiness.

Breezy conditions accompany the “warm up” to begin the weekend.  A system moving across the Great Lakes drags in a cold front Saturday  night that will drop highs back into the 30s Sunday.  Along with the cold there’s a possibility of seeing some flurries and/or snow showers to finish the weekend.  Stay warm and check back for updates – Sean Ash

HIGHS SATURDAY 7DAY

We’re also closely monitoring the forecast in Foxbor for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game.  Our early call is a wet one for the game as low pressure intensifies off the coast.  Admittedly there are some timing uncertainties on when the heavies rain may come onshore.  We’ll update in the days ahead.  GO COLTS!

PLANNER COLTS

 

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Jan
12

Update On Ice And Morning Commute Conditions

Posted By · January 12, 2015 at 1:23 am

The challenging forecast continues this hour with 1 to 2 degrees separating wet roads from a skating rink.  Thankfully many interstates around the Indianapolis metro area are mainly wet with some slush.  Side street and neighborhoods get more icy and this is especially true heading north and and east out of Indianapolis.  The picture below from Monticello shows snowy covered roadways in area that will see more snow and sleet than freezing rain.

VIEWER PICTURE TEMPS

Based on latest radar and surface temperature trends it appears the highest ice accumulation will be just north of Indianapolis.  But areas shaded in pink can expect quarter-inch or more ice accumulations and possibly some power outages embedded within this zone.  Ice accumulations drop off along and south of I-70 where it’s just warm enough to prevent more significant amounts.

ACCUM

Temperatures hover around the freezing mark much of the early morning from Indy-southward.  This keeps roads mainly wet to slushy in spots.  Colder temperatures occur in the northwestern viewing area with icier conditions are expected from Crawfordsville, Lafayette, Kokomo, Monticello.  This is also where the transition to snow begins to occur and eventually moves southeastward into the Indy metro area by sunrise.

HEADLINES RPM 3AM MONDAY RPM 6AM MONDAY

Definitely allow extra time for the morning commute regardless of your location, and be aware that road conditions can change dramatically based on location.  We’ll need to monitor temperatures and precipitation closely in the morning… as a coating (to 1-2″ north of I-74) is likely.

RPM 9AM MONDAY RPM 4PM MONDAY PLANNER MORNING

Temperatures continue to fall during the Monday and eventually finish in the mid-20s by 5pm.  Another leftover moisture on the roads will begin to refreeze.  Roads may be considerably worse area wide Tuesday morning with lows nearing the single digits.  This marks a shift back to frigid conditions for a few days before we eye a decent warm up heading into next weekend.

PLANNER TUESDAY PLANNER AFTERNOON 7DAY

Stay tuned for updates this morning and don’t forget WTHR Sunrise begins at 4am with team coverage – Sean Ash

 

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Jan
11

Ice Storm Warning Update

Posted By · January 11, 2015 at 8:02 pm

Central Indiana is in the midst of an ice storm and we expect several more hours of steady, at times heavy, precipitation between now and 3am.  We’ve had many reports of icy roads… especially across Hamilton, Madison, Tipton, Clinton and Randolph counties.  This will only continue to grow as temperatures drop to around 30 degrees and hover there much of the night.

At the time of posting, Orange (essential travel only) advisories had been issued for Hamilton, Tipton and Randolph counties.  We’ve also heard power outages across Central Indiana… those will likely grow as well overnight.

VIEWER PICS PLAINFIELD

At the time of posting, Orange (essential travel only) advisories had been issued for Hamilton, Tipton and Randolph counties.  We’ve also heard power outages across Central Indiana… those will likely grow as well overnight.

road conditions HEADLINES

Quarter-inch ice accumulations are likely along the I-70/74 corridors and locally higher amounts are possible.  Slick travel can be expected into the Monday morning commute and power outages may continue to grow into Monday afternoon as the wind increasing.

730PM TEMPS

ACCUM

RPM 12AM MONDAY RPM 4AM MONDAY RPM 7AM MONDAY

It also appears a transition to mostly snow occurs Monday morning to drop an inch of accumulation over top of the ice.  Not an ideal set up.  A long way to friends.  Please send any picture and road conditions to pix@wthr.com.

RPM 4PM MONDAY

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Jan
11

Icy Night Ahead Comes With Challenging Forecast

Posted By · January 11, 2015 at 3:44 pm

With precipitation type and specific ice and snow accumulations hinging on 1 to 2 degrees, this will be our most challenging forecast by a landslide this season.  Our viewing area will see everything from just cold rain (primarily southern sections), to sleet and freezing rain, to mainly snow and sleet for some.

TEMPS DEWPOINTS RPM 6PM SUNDAY

Please know the set up in place will require a significant amount of NOWcasting due to what small temperature changes can do to precipitation type.  This is a highly bustable forecast in my humble opinion, and I’m not afraid to admit that.

RPM 9PM SUNDAY RPM 12AM MONDAY RPM 4AM MONDAY RPM 7AM MONDAY

With that disclaimer out there here is my latest thinking based on current analysis and model guidance.  Though temperatures have “warmed” into the lower 30s, dry air (dewpoints in the mid-teens) will cause evaporative cooling as precipitation intensifies this evening.  The result will be for temperatures to drop below freezing along and north of the I-70/74 corridors.  This region has the highest probability of significant icing of a .25″ and perhaps locally higher amounts.

ICE ACCUM

Areas in southern Indiana may only get a glancing blow of freezing rain of less than a .10″ accumulation.  A colder atmosphere from top to bottom on the northern periphery of the viewing area suggest a better chance of snow/sleet accumulations.

HEADLINES HEADLINES 2

Travel may become difficult after sunset and roads may get icy… especially bridges and overpasses.  While power outages are certainly possible, I don’t envision widespread/massive outages at the moment.  But stronger winds Monday afternoon ups the ante for that to occur with any ice remaining power lines.

PLANNER TONIGHT PLANNER MONDAY

After Monday morning we’ll be precipitation-free for the upcoming week.  But the week begins on a bitterly cold note with multiple mornings in the single digits, if not sub-zero Wednesday morning.  All long range guidance suggests a January thaw heading into next weekend with perhaps several days with highs in the 40s.  Stay tuned and check back for updates this evening – Sean Ash

7DAY

 

 

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Jan
08

Snow Burst This Evening And Slick Travel Expected Overnight

Posted By · January 8, 2015 at 1:39 pm

UPDATE: Though no change to our current snowfall forecast or thinking… but a Winter Weather Advisory was issued for the far northern counties of the viewing area for tonight-early Friday morning.  This is for snowfall and expected blowing snow that creates slick travel this evening into the Friday morning commute.  It’s possible additional counties farther south may be added too.  Regardless… if you’re traveling area wide tonight expect for road conditions to change rapidly with bursts of snow expected.

ADVSIORY

For the first since Wednesday Evening the temperature in Indianapolis climbed above zero this afternoon!  A small accomplishment I understand, but baby steps toward digging out of the hole that was our coldest morning since February 7th (also -7).

.TEMP TREND TEMPS WIND CHILL

Temperatures slowly climb into the mid-teens this evening but it will never feel that warm with a steady, at times strong, wind blowing from the southwest.  This keeps wind chills in the -10 to -15 range much of the afternoon.  Just a heads-up that we do anticipate snow to quickly make roads messy this evening as another clipper system rides into the state from Illinois.

RADAR PLANNER EVENING RPM THURSDAY 11PM

The snow may come in waves and may be heavy at times as an Arctic front dives across Indiana between 10pm and 3am.  We’re expecting accumulations up to an inch around the Indy metro area, and 1-2” for areas north of I-74 toward the Toll Road.  The snow, combined with gusty wind and temperatures dropping into the single digits Friday morning, leads to slick travel overnight.  Plan on extra time for the Friday morning commute and school delays are likely again.

RPM FRIDAY 2AM SNOW ACCUM HEADLINES RPM FRIDAY 7AM  WIND CHILL FRIDAY 7AM

Clouds and the steady breeze keep low temperatures in the upper single digits tonight, but morning wind chills will be in the -10 to -20 range.

PLANNER TONIGHT WIND CHILL FRIDAY 7AM PLANNER FRIDAY

A wind shift to the northwest Friday morning, behind the passage of another Arctic front, keeps temperatures steady if not falling Friday afternoon.  We’ll likely end tomorrow in the low single digits to near zero, with wind chills well below zero heading into Saturday morning.

WIND CHILL SATURDAY 6AM LOWS SATURDAY HIGHS SATURDAY

Saturday morning we will see actual air temperatures drop below zero and wind chills as cold as -20 to -25.  A bitter start to the weekend but we’ll see some sunshine Saturday.

RPM SATURDAY 4PM RPM SUNDAY 7AM

We’re monitoring Sunday afternoon into Mondayvery closely for the potential of a messy mix around Central Indiana.  It’s still too early to determine exact precipitation type and if accumulation will occur… but it’s certainly possible and will require you to check back for updates.  Be safe on the roads this evening – Sean Ash

RPM SUNDAY PM 7DAY

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Jan
07

Near Record Cold Tonight And Snow Chances Thursday

Posted By · January 7, 2015 at 5:16 pm

Definitely deceiving sunshine in Central Indiana with bitterly cold air in place.  Afternoon temperatures in the low single digits teamed up with a stiff northwest wind to produce wind chills of 10 to 20 below.

TEMPS WIND CHILL NOW

Temperatures quickly drop below zero around sunset and steadily all night long… with record low potential in areas with snow pack.

PLANNER TONIGHT

We’re forecasting -11 for Indianapolis which will be just shy of the record low of -14.  Areas with the deepest snow pack (along/north of I-74) will be the coldest… and -15 to -20 is very possible if you reside in this region.  Though respectably cold… areas south of I-70 with little snow cover will be in 0 to -5 range.  Regardless it’s all dangerous and deserves your attention.

LOWS TONIGHT WIND CHILL

The gusty wind creates significant blowing and drifting snow and will have a high impact on north-south highways through the overnight.  Be cautious traveling.  The main headline will be near record lows heading into Thursday morning.

PLANNER TOMORROW RPM 4PM RPM 9PM

Thursday will be very breezy with strong gusts from the southwest.  Though the air temperature will technically be warmer in the mid-teens, it will never feel like it with wind chills remaining well below zero.  Snow, albeit light, expands across the Central Indiana late afternoon and another 1″ is possible by 7am Friday.

RPM 2AM FRIDAY SNOW ACCUM RPM FRIDAY 7AM PLANNER FRIDAY

Temperatures fall during the day Friday behind the passage of the latest Arctic front.  Wind chills again drop into the -10 to -20 range and lows Saturday morning fall below zero and into the lower single digits area wide.

LOWS SATURDAY 7DAY

We’ll be keeping close tabs on wintry precipitation potential Sunday evening into Monday.  Early indications suggest a prolonged wintry mix/freezing rain scenario.  Stay tuned and be safe – Sean Ash

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Jan
06

Messy Morning For Central And Northern Indiana

Posted By · January 6, 2015 at 3:27 am

Prepare for a rather slow and slick commute this morning in the wake of Central Indiana’s first significant snowfall of the season.  As anticipated areas along and north of the I-74 corridor received the highest snowfall totals in the 4-6″ range with locally higher amounts.

TEMPS SNOW REPORTS

While significantly lighter amounts were registered in the “drop-off zone” south-southwest and Indianapolis.  Snow tapers to flurries by 6am and the focus shifts to blowing snow during the day as a brisk northwest wind cranks up.  Highs in the mid to upper teens will never feel that warm.  We’re advising everyone to get sidewalks and roads cleared as soon as possible before sub-zero lows and -20 to -30 wind chills arrive tonight.

PLANNER TODAY PLANNER TONIGHT HEADLINES

More light snow is possible late tonight into Wednesday morning and we believe traveling will remain difficult the next several days.  “Highs” Wednesday will be in the single digits and our coldest morning with lows of -5 to -15 occurs Thursday.

7DAY

Stay safe if you’re traveling today and check back for updates on snowfall amounts – Sean Ash

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Jan
06

Winter Storm Continues And Heaviest Snow Next Few Hours

Posted By · January 6, 2015 at 1:05 am

A Winter Storm Warning continues for Indianapolis and points north until 10am.  Radar trends show an increase in heavy snow across the I-70/74 corridors and we expect this will be the back-breaker for the metro area’s morning commute.  Snowfall rates may reach 1-2″/per hour and drop a quick 4-6″ accumulation between now and sunrise.

RADAR RADAR 2

Radar upstream shows the clipper system over west-central Illinois and pivoting east-southeastward.  This keeps snow, and heavy banding potential, in play the next several hours.

RPM 3AM RPM 5AM

Snow will taper off from west to east by 6am.  There will be a broad 4-6″ accumulation from the I-74 corridor-northward into Lafayette/Kokomo/Tipton… with areas of 6″+ potentially.  We have medium to high confidence in this area verifying given what’s on the ground and current radar trends.  There will be a significant drop-off in amounts traveling south-southwest… where we have LOW confidence on snowfall forecast verification.

But remember that even light snow accumulations will be enough to make it slick and slow this morning due to the cold surface temperatures in the mid-teens.  Many roadways are quickly becoming snow covered and it will be a white-knuckle drive this morning for many.

SNOW AMOUNTS HEADLINES

We’re advising everyone to clear sidewalks and streets as quickly as possible Tuesday.  Waiting will prove to be detrimental as blowing snow Tuesday night and sub-zero low temperatures will create a hard crust on whatever is left behind.  Not to mention you don’t want to be shoveling in -20 to -30 wind chills Wednesday morning.  Check back for updates throughout the morning and don’t forget to download the Skytrak13 Weather App (http://www.wthr.com/category/225686/wthr-skytrak-weather-app)

HEADLINES 2

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