Definitely feeling like fall across Central Indiana courtesy of a persistent northeasterly breeze and temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. As expected the brightest sky is mainly in northern Indiana with a mixed bag elsewhere.
Evening And Tonight: Jackets and long sleeves needed for the foreseeable future as lows drop into the 45 to 50 degree range. A lighter, but still brisk, wind can be expected for the bus stop in the morning but gusts return to the 20-25mph range during peak heating hours tomorrow.
Operation Football Forecast: Despite an increase in cloud cover Friday evening we’re expecting dry, crisp conditions for kick offs. Temperatures in the 50s will feel cooler due to a 15-20mph wind from the northeast. Cloud cover should continue to thicken up Friday night with wind-whipped showers around by sunrise Saturday. This rain is courtesy of tropical moisture being drawn west-northwest from the Atlantic and Hurricane Joaquin.
Hurricane Joaquin Update: This remains a highly complex and changeable forecast regarding Hurricane Joaquin and the long range track. In the short term conditions will continue to support Joaquin to remain a hurricane if not intensify as it drifts toward the Central Bahamas the next 24 hours.
The timing of the interaction between the flow around an upper level storm in the southeastern U.S. and Joaquin will be one key of whether or not it makes landfall in the eastern U.S. One possibility is the upper low/digging trough draws Joaquin northwestward and assists in the pivoting it into the coast between the Carolinas and Delmarva regions sometime Saturday night into Monday morning. Another possibility is trough digs far enough southward/eastward to push Joaquin out to sea. Again it’s just too early to determine which will occur.
However… with or without Joaquin making landfall it’s highly likely that the Carolinas will see significant widespread rainfall of 6-12″+ from the upper storm and a highly moist atmosphere. If Joaquin were to landfall then these figures will be even higher. Either way a high impact flood event more than likely unfolds by the end of the weekend with rain already occurring in these areas.
Weekend Outlook: We noted in prior blogs this week that the weekend forecast would be highly changeable and indeed we’ve upped the ante for wind-whipped showers, clouds and unseasonably cool highs in the 50s on Saturday. While it may not be a washout (though that could change too), it’s definitely looking like a raw weekend with wind gusts possibly nearing 40mph. Plan accordingly if you’re heading out the Ohio State-IU game or Toledo-Ball State match up in Muncie.
Expect the breezy, showery conditions to continue for Colts tailgating. Don’t forget members of WTHR and the Salvation Army will be collecting for Coats For Kids on the corner of Captiol and Illinois before the game.
Please check back for updates as changes in the track of Joaquin will change in our local forecast one way or another. There are signs of a few warmer, brighter days during the middle of next week.- Sean Ash
A cloudy, soggy day in progress over Central Indiana. Everyone will see rain but the most widespread and heaviest occurs along/just south of I-70. Some areas of Southern Indiana will pick up a solid 1″ of rainfall before the steadiest precipitation ends overnight. By midnight heaviest rain should be moving out of the state, but clouds, showers and drizzle linger.
The passage of cold front this evening sets the stage for several days of seasonably cool air. Due to cloud cover tonight, temperatures only drop into the 50s for lows but struggle to near 70 degrees tomorrow despite decreasing clouds for some.
Sky conditions will vary greatly in the viewing area Wednesday from mainly sunny north, mixed central and mainly overcast south and east until later in the day. Area wide will feel a stiff northeasterly breeze that likely gusts to over 20-25mph during peak heating.
A complex weather set up continues later this week with many players in the forecast puzzle evident on the latest Friday Futurecast. The aforementioned cold front stalls along the eastern seaboard and becomes a focal point for heavy rainfall. Meanwhile north of this front cooler air sinks southward to deliver a fall-ish chill to the Ohio Valley for several days. The biggest wildcard is what happens with newly formed Tropical Storm Joaquin.
Some solutions suggest even Indiana could see clouds and wind-whipped showers from this feature, while many other outputs keep direct impacts more focused on the coast. There is just too much uncertainty at this point to put our eggs into one basket.
Confidence is much higher on a multi-day wind event due to tightening pressure gradient around high pressure in Canada. This delivers a steady diet of 10-20mph wind with gusts possibly over 35mph during the hours of daytime heating.
Check back as we’ll fine tune the weekend outlook in the days ahead – Sean Ash
A summer-ish start to the work week with intervals of sunshine and clouds and high temperatures back in the 80s… nearly 10 degrees above average. Just a slight chance of a spotty shower this evening and overnight.
The temperature pendulum swings much cooler by the weekend after the passage of a cold front Tuesday evening. The end result will be a temperature anomalies of 5-10 degrees below average for several days and a potential weekend storm on the east coast that may local impacts too.
There are many pieces to the forecast puzzle in the coming days.. beginning with several disturbances in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. Gulf moisture is streaming northward and will team up with a cold front that’s currently over the northern tier of the U.S. This front brings clouds, showers and some thunder to the area on Tuesday.
Though spotty showers are possible overnight into Tuesday morning, better rain chances arrives Tuesday afternoon along the cold front. Despite a good deal of cloud cover tomorrow, daytime highs near 80 degrees and the heat may help trigger some embedded thunderstorms. Rain amounts will vary widely from a trace to nearly an inch under heavier downpours. It appears southern Indiana and areas along the Ohio River stand the best chance of widespread heavier rain within the deeper moisture fields.
The wind of change kicks in Tuesday night into Wednesday morning after the passage of the front. A tightening pressure gradient around Canadian High pressure delivers a steady diet of brisk northeasterlies Wednesday into Friday to the tune of 20-30mph. This flow of air locks in unseasonably cool air and we’ll have several days with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s after mid-week.
The weekend wildcard is a potential storm system along the east coast with a wide-ranging output of modeled solutions. The European solution, and noted it’s on its for now, is a deepening mid-Atlantic storm that actually retrogrades (moves east to west) into the Ohio Valley… with shower/wind/temperature impacts in Central Indiana.
Its Canadiana (top image below) and American counterparts don’t reflect as deep (strong/lower pressure) of a storm and are more progressive. At this point we’re not altering our 7 day forecast much from the midday version. But please note we’ll need to monitor trends for potential impacts in the days ahead.
Have a great evening – Sean Ash
The forecast remains on target and unfortunately that means not ideal viewing conditions for the total supermoon lunar eclipse tonight for parts of Central Indiana.
But we do expect breaks in the cloud deck, especially after sunset and the atmosphere stabilizes, with coverage of clouds ranging from 40-70%… which equates to a partly to mostly cloudy forecast. Definitely don’t give up hope of seeing it and we’ll update later this evening.
The eclipse begins at 9:07pm and totality starts at 10:11pm. The event will be over at 12:27am Monday morning.
Monday will bring more summer heat with afternoon highs climbing into the low 80s, running nearly 10 degrees above normal. A few more isolated showers will be possible Monday afternoon.
A cold front will arrive on Tuesday, bringing an increase in showers and some rumble of thunder. Despite limited sunshine, it will still be a warm summer like day with afternoon highs in the low 80s.
Seasonably cool air filters in behind the front mid-week as highs drop into the 60s to near 70 degrees. The pressure gradient between high pressure across the Great Lakes and low pressure along the east coast creates rather breezy conditions in the Ohio Valley for several days.
This northeasterly flow ensures will see temperatures at or somewhat below normal for a change. Expect several mornings in the 40s and cool enough you’ll need to dig out the sweatshirts and jackets before next weekend. Have a great evening – Sean Ash
Another stellar sunny day in Central Indiana with equally warm highs in the 80s… a good 10 degrees above average for late September. No changes this evening, overnight and into Friday morning which means clear conditions and comfortable temperatures in the 50s.
Friday Forecast: Cloud cover will increase as Friday but not before a bright and pleasant beginning. By 5-6pm expect more clouds than sunshine over the southeastern half of the state, but but we’ll stay dry and pleasantly warm in the lower 80s. It Should be a great night of weather for Operation Friday Football as temperatures slide into the lower 70s by the end of games.
Weekend Outlook: A system along the east coast throws moisture westward into the Ohio Valley. The end result will be a rather cloudy weekend at times with occasional spotty showers both Saturday and Sunday. However it should be noted the exact track of an upper disturbance could change and possibly go farther south or north… both of which would drastically change the forecast. More south means more sunshine and warmer highs, while farther north would up the ante on rain coverage and amounts. Check back but at this point it’s looking mainly cloudy and cooler as a result.
Bottom-line… clouds should have more bark than bite and intervals of filtered sunshine are very possible too. Certainly no need to cancel any outdoor plans, like going to the Circle City Classic Parade Saturday morning, but realize a few showers will be around. As of now rain amounts appear to be light and well under a quarter inch.
Rare Lunar Eclipse: Unfortunately cloud cover may play the role of spoiler of the first total “supermoon” eclipse since 1982. The partial eclipse begins at 9:07pm EDT as the moon begins to enter the Earth’s shadow. It will reach totality at 10:11pm and exit totality at 11:23pm. We’re hoping clouds thin enough for viewing here in Central Indiana as it’s only the 6th occurrence since 1900 and won’t happen again until 2033. Good luck and here are a couple of websites with great explanations on what will be happening and where it gets its name from: http://shadowandsubstance.com/ http://earthsky.org/tonight/total-lunar-eclipse-blood-moon-hunters-moon-september-27-28-2015
First Fall Cold Front Next Weekend? We mentioned the possibility of a potentially significant cold front around October 6th in the blog yesterday. The latest operation European model indeed has a sharp trough over the eastern U.S. next weekend. If this verifies it would deliver chilly air and temperature departures of 10-20° next weekend. Stay tuned – Sean
Sunshine and unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures highlight the forecast the next 24 hours. We’ll climb into the 80s again today and tomorrow with rather comfortable evenings and overnight.
Lows drop back into the 50s tonight with a rapid rise tomorrow into the 80s. We’ve been monitoring a disturbance near the east coast for potential local impact. Latest guidance suggests the easterly flow off the Atlantic Ocean likely brings an increase in cloud cover Friday and Saturday… and possibly shower chances too.
For now we’re keeping the forecast dry for Operation Football and the weekend, but please note if this trends continue there may be rain for some areas to start the weekend. Check back for updates as this could impact some college football games Saturday if it verifies.
It appears the warmer than normal pattern lingers into the opening of October but we’ll need to watch the October 6-8th time frame for decent cold front in the Ohio Valley. Stay tuned – Sean Ash
Hard to argue that the nation’s best weather is right here in Central Indiana. Sunshine and comfortable temperatures in the mid-70s this afternoon gives us the right to that honor… and we’re just getting started on a prolonged dry spell.
You couldn’t write a better weather script for Monday Night Football and Colts tailgating. Expect clear and comfortable conditions with temperatures in the 60s by kickoff. During the game temperatures continue to fall and will be in the 50s for the ride home out of Lucas Oil Stadium. Enjoy the game and GO COLTS!
Jackets will be needed for kids early Tuesday morning as many areas away from Indianapolis drop into the 40s. The seasonably cool start quickly warms under a full canopy of blue sky and sunshine. Highs will finish a bit warmer and near 80 degrees in many cities. Temperatures the next 7-10 days will be a 5 to 10 degrees above average and the Ohio Valley looks to stay mainly rain-free.
The autumnal equinox (astrological beginning of the fall season) occurs Wednesday morning at 4:22am as the sun’s most direct rays pass southward over the equator. But the pattern the next 7-10 days definitely fits the bill of summer. Expect several days in row with mostly clear conditions, cool night and afternoons warming into the 80s. While the southeastern and southwestern U.S. sees substantial rains over the next week… we’ll see dry conditions prevailing heading into early October.
Have a great evening – Sean Ash
Another stellar, summer-ish day in Central Indiana with hazy sunshine and highs in the 80s. Should be a great night to get out to Victory Field and support the Indianapolis Indians in their playoff series against the Columbus Clippers. First pitch temperatures will be near 80 degrees with a light breeze.
We’re still calling for scattered shower and thunder chances tomorrow. At this point we bracket the hours of 7am to 2pm Friday for the possibility of scattered precipitation… so potentially impacting the bus stop and morning commute for some. This activity is expected to weaken and diminish before the kick off of Operation Football, but expect warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
Another bout of scattered showers and storms arrive late Friday night and linger into early Saturday afternoon. This activity will diminish from northwest to southeast and move out of the state mainly by 5pm with the passage of a cold front. If this timing verifies rain should have minimal impact on college football games at IU, Purdue and Notre Dame Saturday afternoon.
Another shot of autumn air behinds this front and drops low temperatures into the 40s and lower 50s Sunday morning with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Monday is fantastic but cool, but fans headed to the Colts and Jets game Monday will have a beautiful evening in downtown Indianapolis heading into Lucas Oil Stadium. This brief stretch of seasonably cool air quickly gives way to another summer-like warm up later next week as highs soar back into the 80s. Have a great day – Sean Ash