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Nov
04

Soggy Evening Marks Beginning Of Active, Cold Pattern

Posted By · November 4, 2014 at 4:52 pm

This afternoon is quite the contrast to 24 hours ago as we’ve gone from 60s to rain showers and chilly 40s.  Temperatures this evening are some 15 degrees cooler than this time Monday.

3PM TEMPS 24HR CHANGE PLANNER EVENING RPM

Rain continues through early evening but the steadiest axis gradually ends from northwest to southeast by midnight.

Left behind tonight will be cloudy, damp conditions as temperatures slowly settle into the lower 40s by sunrise Wednesday.  We’ll likely be under a blanket of gray early tomorrow, but some peeks of sun are possible heading into early afternoon… with highs struggling into the lower and middle 50s.

RPM 2 RPM 3 RPM 4 PLANNER WEDNESDAY RPM 5

Another quick-hitting upper level system dives into the Ohio Valley with showers and breezy conditions.  On the backside of this feature Thursday evening rain may mix with snow showers.  Flurries remain possible into Friday morning with a gusty northwest wind providing chilly conditions to finish the week.

RPM 6 RPM 7 RPM 8 HIGHS FRIDAY

The active pattern continues this weekend with another wind-maker racing across the Great Lakes.  We’ll be on the warmer side of the storm track Saturday in the upper 50s.  Cold air quickly returns Sunday with areas of flurries and light snow possible and highs in the lower 40s.

JET STERAM JET STREAM 2

Long range data continues to support a cold air outbreak in the eastern U.S. next week.  Both the GFS (top graph below) and European (bottom graph below) ensemble means (which modifyextremes) show temperature departures of nearly 15 degrees cooler than normal Tuesday evening to the end of next week.  If this verifies we could be staring down several days with highs in the 30s/low 40s and lows in the 20s.

ENESMBLE MEAN HIGHS(image courtesy of WeatherBell.com)

It’s nearly a week away so it’s highly subject to change, but at this point there is global indicators to support the model output theories.  This type of cold is something that would be more fitting for December than mid-November.

NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES 7DAY

 Stay tuned for updates and have a great evening – Sean Ash

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Nov
03

60s Today With Next Bout Of Winter Cold Arriving Later This Week

Posted By · November 3, 2014 at 4:06 pm

Sun and a southwesterly wind teamed up to deliver a warmer than advertised Monday afternoon.  Highs are well into the middle 60s and a good 15 to 20 degrees warmer than Sunday afternoon.  This will easily be our warmest day in quite sometime, as all signs point toward a return of much below normal conditions later this week.

3PM TEMPS 24HR CHANGE

The mild afternoon sets us up for a pleasant evening overall, though the wind remains gusty in the 10-20mph range.  We’re still on target for a damp Tuesday as showers expand across central Indiana late morning into early midday.  High temperatures will be significantly cooler tomorrow with clouds, showers and temperatures in the low to mid 50s.

PLANNER EVENING RPM RPM 2 RPM 3 PLANNER TUESDAY RPM 4

The axis of rain will slowly sink southward to the Ohio River Tuesday night, but residual cloud cover and drizzle remain very much in play Wednesday.  Another potent upper level system dives into the Ohio Valley and delivers a new surge of colder than normal air from Canada.

RPM 5 RPM 6 RPM 7 RPM 8

High temperatures quickly drop into the 40s and rain showers mix or change to snow showers Thursday night into early Friday morning.  This is part of an active storm pattern and persistent flow from the northwest and leads to a prolonged spell of chilly temperatures.

HIGHS THURSDAY JET STERAM

Does the jet stream map above look familiar?  It’s very similar to the upper level set up from Halloween and we’ll experience a chill like last Friday with temperature departures of 15-20 degrees below normal.

JET STREAM 2 GFS TEMP DEPARTURE(image courtesy of WeatherBell.com)

Model ensemble guidance from the GFS (American model) for Days 5-10 agree with this theory and is supported by other medium range model data (not shown).

GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN(image courtesy of WeatherBell.com)

Notice the raw high/low temperature graph above for Indianapolis for the next 16 days is more indicative of late November/early December conditions.  Quite frankly some of those temperatures are likely too warm!  Bottom line… the idea is for a below to much below November and we’ll need to monitor the evolution of Super Typhoon Nuri.  Sometimes the residual energy of typhoons in the west Pacific, especially strong typhoons, can impact the eastern United States.  Let’s keep an eye out for late November.

NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES

Enjoy the rest of your evening and keep the winter coats and gloves nearby – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Nov
02

Monday Is Warmest This Week, Rain Returns Tuesday

Posted By · November 2, 2014 at 5:32 pm

Central Indiana enjoyed a decent temperature rebound after the coldest morning since late March.  Lows Sunday morning were frosty in the lower 20s area wide… a good 15-20 below normal.

LOWS THIS MORNING FACTS 24HR CHANGE

Sunshine and a southwest wind helped push highs to near 50.  That’s nearly 10 degrees below normal but warmer than Saturday’s chill.

NOW

Temperatures drop rapidly after sunset this evening but will level off as clouds and a steady wind mix up the air.

PLANNER EVENING RPM RPM 2

Overnight low temperatures will be well above the hard freeze levels of last night.  Heading out the door Monday morning expect lows in the 35 to near 40 degree range.  The warmer start leads to a warmer finish tomorrow.  Though highs Monday near 60 degrees, a strengthening southwest wind will make it feel cooler.

PLANNER MONDAY RPM 3 RPM 4 RPM 5 RPM 6

We’re still targeting Tuesday as our next best rain chance.  Showers are likely that day with damp highs in the lower 50s.  Another surge of much colder than normal air hits the Ohio Valley Thursday.  This air mass will be accompanied by showers that may mix with snow after sunset Thursday into Friday morning.  This system drop highs down to the 40s and lows to the lower 30s heading into next weekend.  The overall trend is for a below to well below pattern to continue past the middle of the month.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

JET  7DAY

 

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Oct
30

Rare Halloween Snowflakes Possible Friday

Posted By · October 30, 2014 at 4:06 pm

Enjoy what’s left of any sun you’re seeing today.  Clouds increase this evening and we wait for the arrival of a potent storm system that may deliver Central Indiana’s first Halloween snow in nearly two decades.

RPM

Some showers are possible by 7pm this evening with the highest chance being across the southwestern corner of the state.  Due to the insulating cloud cover, lows tonight won’t be nearly as cold as this morning.  But with overcast, and a strengthening northwest wind, morning temperatures in the low/mid 40s Friday morning won’t budge much all day long.

RPM 2 RPM 3

Rain becomes widespread by midday tomorrow and wind gusts near 30-40mph by 5pm as the storm intensifies over the state.

PLANNER FRIDAY RPM 4 RPM 5

Anyway you slice it, trick-or-treating conditions will be far from pleasant.  Temperatures drop into the 30s by 7pm with wind chills in the 20s.  Rain showers will mix or changeover to snow showers as the coldest air of the season arrives.  While widespread accumulation is unlikely, stronger snow showers may overcome the warmer ground to produce some areas of grassy accumulation.

PLANNER FRIDAY EVENING WIND CHILL WIND CHILL 2

Friday will be only the 6th Halloween since 1954 to have a high temperature below 50 degrees and possibly just the 8th occurrence of snow (trace or more) at the Indianapolis Airport on October 31st… the last coming in 1993.  The record daily snowfall is just .10″ set in 1890.

HALLOWEEN FACTS WIND CHILL 3

Saturday morning temperatures drop to their lowest levels since mid-April with lows in the 20s.  If you’re running the Indy Monumental Marathon expect a steady 15-20mph northerly wind that may gust to 25mph.  This produces wind chills in the teens for several hours early Saturday.  Though some sun is possible early in the day, we believe much of Saturday will be mainly cloudy.

MONUMENTAL HIGHS SATURDAY LOWS SUNDAY

The coldest temperatures this weekend occur Saturday night into Sunday morning under a clear sky and calm wind… when lows fall into the 20-26 range.  After a bright start Sunday morning clouds increase with chilly highs in the 40s.  Have a great evening and check back over the next 24 hours for updates – Sean Ash

7DAY

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You can certainly feel a chill in the air over Central Indiana… and this is just an appetizer to the coldest air since mid-April that hits Halloween evening.  The viewing area is split in half this afternoon by a layer of overcast.  Up north it’s gray and in the 40s.  South of I-70 it’s significantly brighter and near 60.

NOW PLANNER EVENING

Tonight and Thursday:  Cloud cover will vary this evening and even the overcast may break by 8pm.  Temperatures will drop into the mid 30s for lows tonight and we’ll similar conditions Thursday… though I believe the overcast eventually becomes more widespread.  By late day tomorrow sprinkles and spotty showers are possible.

PLANNER THURSDAY RPM RPM 2

Halloween:  Rain chances ramp up by midday Friday as an upper level storm system dives southward into the region.  The passage of this feature creates a dramatic wind shift to the north that will keep temperatures in the 40s for Halloween day.  Wind increases from the north later in the day and the atmosphere will be cold enough to support snow showers and flurries by 5-6pm.

RPM 3 RPM 4 RPM WINDCHILL

Temperatures drop into the 30s toward sunset and wind chills plummet into the 20s as wind gusts range between 30-40mph.  Confidence is high on the temperature and wind portion of the Halloween forecast, with medium confidence on wintry precipitation developing for some.

HALLOWEEN HALLOWEEN WINDCHILL

We’ve certainly had colder and wetter Halloweens in Indianapolis.  But this will become only the 6th Halloween since 1960, and 28th since 1871, to exhibit a high below 50 degrees in the city.

HALLOWEEN FACTS

Weekend:  Due to the slower departure of this system, and its intensity, we’ve upped the wind speeds for Saturday morning.  A steady brisk northerly wind of 15 to 20mph will have a big impact on the Monumental Marathon.  Start time temperatures will be in the upper 20s and expect Saturday morning wind chills in the 15 to 20 degree range.  Not ideal running conditions.

LOWS SATURDAY MARATHON JET STREAM

The pressure gradient between a Canadian high to our northwest and a developing coastal low put Indiana in the crosshairs of a “wind sandwich.”  This keeps the funnel to unseasonably cold air open all weekend long and puts highs in the lower 40s Saturday afternoon.

SATURDAY SET UP SATURDAY SET UP 2 HIGHS SATURDAY

A calming wind and clear sky set the stage for a hard freeze and frosty start Sunday morning when lows drop into the lower/mid 20s.  Morning sun gives way to increasing clouds Sunday afternoon as highs struggle to hit 50 degrees.  Don’t forget to set your clocks back one hour before you go to bed Saturday night.

7DAY

Temperatures rebound Monday but rain quickly returns to the Ohio Valley Tuesday.  We need to monitor Thursday/Friday of next week for another potential shot of colder than normal air.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

 

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Oct
28

Chilly Halloween Will Look And Feel More Like Thanksgiving

Posted By · October 28, 2014 at 3:46 pm

Good Tuesday afternoon.  The band of rain is out of the state and a slow clearing/thinning to the clouds continues from west to east.  While upper 50s and lower 60s are near normal, temperatures are some 20 degrees colder than this time Monday afternoon.

TEMPS 24HR CHANGE RPM TONIGHT RPM MORNING

Tonight and Wednesday:  Our weather settles down for a few days with seasonably cool conditions expected tonight into Friday morning.  Lows tonight will be much colder than this morning, with out the door temperatures Wednesday morning in the mid to upper 30s.  Highs tomorrow only warming into the middle 50s.

RPM WEDNESDAY PLANNER WEDNESDAY HIGHS THURSDAY

Thursday remains seasonably cool in the 50s and there is a chance of spotty showers late in the day in advance of a stronger system Friday.

RPM 2 RPM 3

Halloween:  Computer models remain bullish on sharply colder air diving into Central Indiana Halloween.  This will be accompanied by overcast, highs in the mid-40s, gusty wind and rain showers that mix with or change to snow showers by 8-9pm when temperatures drop into the 30s.  With or without frozen precipitation, it just doesn’t look pleasant for trick-or-treating Friday evening with wind chills likely in the 20s.

RPM 4 HALLOWEEN HIGHS RPM 5 HALLOWEEN

The coldest temperatures since mid-April arrive this weekend with lows in the 20s both Saturday and Sunday mornings… though wind and lingering cloud cover may keep lows closer to 30 Saturday morning.  Depending on the departure time of this upcoming upper level storm, wind may be a factor for the Indy Monumental Marathon.  We’ll fine tune wind speeds in the days ahead.

MARATHON 7DAY

Don’t forget we go back to Standard Time this Sunday at 2am when we “fall back” an hour.  Enjoy the extra hour of sleep!  Have a nice evening – Sean Ash

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Oct
27

Closer To A Record Than Average High Today With Big Chill Late Week

Posted By · October 27, 2014 at 1:18 pm

We’re enjoying another day of above normal warmth in Central Indiana with expected highs to be 15-20 degrees higher than average.  This equates to upper 70s and lower 80s in spots.  Temperatures at 1pm are already near 80 degrees in some locations.  Indianapolis will be closer to the record (83) than normal (61) this afternoon.

BROWN COUNTY TEMPS 24HR CHANGE HIGHS TODAY

This Afternoon and Tonight:  The only trade-off with the warmth will be a gusty southwest wind up to 25-30mph.  Hazy sun fills the sky along with occasional mid to high level clouds.  We’ll be rain-free until after midnight but the arrival time before 8am Tuesday leads to a damp commute for some tomorrow.

 PLANNER TODAY  RPM RPM 2

Tomorrow:  The first part of Tuesday looks cloudy, damp and some thunder is possible.  You’ll still feel a mild breeze in the morning with out the door temperatures in the mid-60s.  Temperatures tomorrow won’t move much due to the early day rain and passage of a cold front.  We should finish the day with some sunshine and steady temperatures in the lower to mid 60s.

RPM 3 RPM 4 RPM 5 PLANNER TUESDAY JET STREAM

Wednesday and Thursday feature seasonably cool temperatures but we’re still on board for a shot of colder than normal air to arrive Halloween evening and into this weekend.  Though there is some uncertainty on the depth of the cold air and associated jet stream trough, confidence is growing on a hard freeze Saturday and Sunday morning.

JET STREAM 2

Halloween:  Highs Friday will be near 50 with a decent amount of cloud cover and a slight shower chance.  Temperatures drop to 40 degrees Friday evening around sunset but a stiff breeze makes it feel like the 30s.  We’ve certainly had colder and wetter Halloweens, but Friday will be significantly colder than the warmth we’re experiencing currently.

HALLOWEEN FORECAST

The Weekend:  We’re on target for the first round of 20s since the middle of April.  Thankfully the cold Saturday morning doesn’t come with much wind which many running in the Monumental Marathon will be pleased to hear.  Start time temperatures will be near 30 degrees and hover in the 30s until around midday.  Sunday becomes blustery and clouds increase in advance of the next rain-maker to arrive a week from today.

MONUMENTAL FORECAST 7DAY

We’ll fine tune the weekend outlook in the days ahead.  Enjoy the summer-like afternoon – Sean Ash

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Oct
26

Warm Start To The Week But Followed By A Cold Finish

Posted By · October 26, 2014 at 5:49 pm

What a weekend!  Mid-70s Saturday and near 70 this afternoon is truly a weather treat for late October.  We’re not done with the unseasonably warm air either and Monday will be the peak of the heat.

PLANNER EVENING RPM

Tonight:  Expect clear, comfortable conditions this evening with temperatures slowly dropping into the 50s before midnight.  Morning lows will be near 50 and the warm up tomorrow won’t take long due to a strengthening southwest wind.

PLANNER MONDAY

Monday:  Upper 60s are likely during the lunch hour and highs will range from 75 to near 80 degrees… 15 to almost 20 degrees warmer than normal.

RPM 2 RPM 3

Rain and storms increase after midnight tomorrow and lead to a wet commute Tuesday morning.  Latest indications suggest the moisture axis moves east of the state by late Tuesday afternoon.  Clouds and the rain keep temperatures much cooler in the mid 60s.

RPM 4 RPM 5 RPM 6 PLANNER TUESDAY HALLOWEEN 850

Seasonably cool days are expected Wednesday and Thursday, but we’re still targeting Halloween and especially next weekend for a shot of colder than normal air.  Halloween highs will be in the lower 50s with more clouds than sun and chance for a few showers.

HALLOWEEN FORECAST

The first 20s of the season are very possible next weekend and highs will be near 50 Saturday and low to mid 50s Sunday.  Cold weather running gear will be needed Saturday morning for those participating in the Indy Monumental Marathon.  Start time temperatures will be near 30 degrees and a light wind will make it feel more like the 20s.  Despite sunshine midday temperatures will struggle into the lower 40s.  We’ll be tweaking the conditions as the week progresses.

MONUMENTAL FORECAST

7DAY

Have a great evening – Sean Ash

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