We’re putting the finishing touches on an outstanding holiday weekend in Central Indiana, and enjoy a relatively pleasant evening in the 50s. Plenty of temperatures in store this week for us… as we go from near 60° to possibly the single digits next weekend.
More on the Arctic Express later in the blog. For now let’s ease into the work week with a quiet night ahead.
Clouds return by the time you wake Monday morning with low temps in the mid 30s. Despite less sun tomorrow, I believe highs creep into the mid/upper 40s.
Clouds have more bark than bite the next 48 hours. Though sprinkles are possible, our next best shot at organized precipitation will be Wednesday. This will also mark the warmest day for awhile in the upper 50s to near 60°.
There is good agreement in long range models on this warm up being brief and a return to much colder air looking eminent during the day Thursday.
There is less consensus in the models regarding the timing/track of low pressure ripples tracking along an Arctic cold front. Being five days out accumulating snow is merely a “possibility” in the forecast… but very subject to change regarding location and potential amounts. For now, the spread of snow “potential” ranges from Central Kentucky to Northern Indiana. Stay tuned for forecast updates, and we’ll be able to fine-tune timing and how much in the days ahead.
The coldest air of the season lurks behind any wintry precipitation next weekend. Depending on snow pack, single digit lows and highs near 20 are very possible. This system(s) late week look to mark the beginning of a active pattern that carries into the middle of December.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Thankfully the sun was shining over Central Indiana or it would have been much colder.
The 18,000+ Drumstick Dash runners braved the 8th coldest Thanksgiving morning low temperature since 1871 at a bitter 16°. This afternoon was the first Thanksgiving day below 40° since 2002… and the city’s sixth straight day below the average high.
In fact, it’s been over 140 hours since Indianapolis has had a temperature at/above 40°! That streak continues until Saturday. If you’re shopping this evening expect chilly temps falling into the 20s by 9pm.
If you’re out early Friday morning searching for deals expect temperatures near 20°, and wind chills in the teens.
More blue sky on Friday and daytime highs near 40° by 4pm.
Should be a very nice, albeit chilly, evening for the Circle Of Lights in downtown Indianapolis.
FutureTrak13 shows an overall quiet, cool pattern heading into Sunday. Though it appears clouds will dominate the sky the second-half of the weekend. Colts tailgaters can expect chilly Sunday morning lows near freezing, and highs struggling to hit the lower 40s. Layer up if you’re heading to Lucas Oil.
Next “best” shower chance is Tuesday, with long-range indicators pointing toward a strong cold front hitting a week from now. This front may deliver our coldest temps of the season to this point… and I wouldn’t be shocked to see single digits lows next weekend. Stay tuned for details. Have a great Thanksgiving evening – Sean Ash
Though Central Indiana will get a glancing blow. areas along and east of the Appalachians will get bombarded with heavy snow, rain and strong wind the next 36 hours.
As the storm rapidly deepens (intensifies) the next 24 hours, wind will become a big issue at the major airport hubs in the northeast. The combination of holiday travel volume, wind and rain may make for lengthy delays Wednesday.
Thankfully (no pun intended) the weather on Thanksgiving Day will be fairly quiet over a good chunk of the United States. But make no mistake… it will also be unseasonably cold over much of the eastern US too.
If you’re driving eastward expect a swath of heavy/wet snow from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania/New York.
We can’t stress enough that the Indiana Toll Road and I-94 in southwest Lower Michigan will be highly impacted by a heavy lake effect snow band beginning tonight and lasting well into Wednesday.
Some areas within the core of the band will have whiteout conditions, and likely near a foot of snow. Lake Effect Warnings are in place for La Porte county in Indiana and Berrien County in Michigan. Lake Effect Watches are up for several counties in northwest Indiana… and subject to upgrades based on the exact trajectory of the expected band.
Hi-res modeling and a persistent north-northwesterly fetch off Lake Michigan suggest lake effect showers/squalls may impact even Central Indian late tonight into Wednesday morning. This is not all that uncommon under this type of set up (unseasonably cold air, persistent wind vector, relatively warm lake water).
Due to the narrowness of the band/squall not everyone will be impacted, but localized accumulations are very likely… and roads “within” the band will be slick for sure.
With or without snow Wednesday will be a flat-out bitter day. Wind chills near zero in the morning and highs struggle to return to the mid 20s… a good 20 degrees below normal.
The latest arrival of Arctic air sets us up for one of our colder Thanksgiving Days since 1989.
Expect upper teens if you’re running in the Drumstick Dash or any other holiday runs. Clouds dominate the sky early, but we’re expecting a brighter finish and mid 30s by end of the day.
Clouds covering Central Indiana mostly have more bark than bite early this afternoon. But an area of flurries and light snow showers continues to track along/north of I-74.
Some flakes are possible from Lafayette to Munice this afternoon. We’re also monitoring an area of light snow in southwest Illinois. All short-range models indicate this area will expand and track northeastward, possibly dropping a quick accumulation for areas along/south of I-70
Notice this is a quick-hitting feature, and will likely be east of the area by Tuesday at 7am. But an accumulation of an 1″ or less is conceivable between 7pm this evening and 1am Tuesday morning. This “may” create some slick roads overnight across the southern half of Indiana.
Appears most of the viewing area will be living on the edge of heavier snows located to our east. But if you’re traveling through central/eastern Ohio Tuesday into Wednesday expect tricky conditions. Also note, that we’re expecting an area of heavy lake effect to develop Tuesday night into Wednesday for northwester Indiana…which will impact traveling the Toll Road, I-65 and possibly US-31. In fact, the fetch off Lake Michigan may be orientated in a way to drag down squalls into the Indy metro Wednesday too.
FutureTrak13 shows precip-free conditions Thanksgiving morning, but temps will be cold in the teens for the Drumstick Dash. Stay tuned for changes to the travel forecast
Anyway you slice it, today was a C-O-L-D day in Central Indiana. It’s quite an impressive air mass to produce temperatures some 20 degrees below normal this time of year, without the aid of snow cover and under a good dose of sun.
The 13 degree low and 28 degree high in Indianapolis marked the city’s coldest day since February 20th, and coldest November afternoon since 2005.
Lows tonight will again tank into the mid-teens, but likely climb into the 20s by sunrise as a layer overcast creeps in tonight.
Clouds mostly have more bark than bite Monday, but can’t rule out some flurries or areas of light snow.
We’ve highlighted a “potential” pre-Thanksgiving weather hiccup for travelers. Last week I mentioned I wasn’t convinced the modeled system would completely miss Central Indiana. Latest modeling suggests some light snow is “possible” in the viewing area as the system begins to ramp up. This is NOT a given, but a trend we’re monitoring… especially for traveling Tuesday.
The latest FutureTrak13 model runs shows snow in play Tuesday morning… and I’m not ruling out an accumulation of an inch or less. But the best chance of accumulating/problematic snow is just to the east of Indiana.
But certainly too close for comfort right now, and very subject to change. We do want to give you a heads-up that east bound travelers will likely run into heavy snow Tuesday-Wednesday morning, and a high potential of flight delays Tuesday at ATL, JFK, BOS, PHI, and other hubs in the northeast US.
Locally another shot of Arctic air hits Wednesday and squeezes out lake effect flurries/snow showers. Just like Saturday, some of the squalls will make interstates slick.
Good Wednesday afternoon. Central Indiana’s still enjoying some filtered sunshine, with afternoon temps in the low to mid 40s.
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1km visible satellite shows cirrus drifting into the state… which matches up well with the latest run of FutureTrak13 at 7pm this evening.
We’re not expecting much precipitation overnight as the atmosphere takes time to fully saturate. However, rain coverage increases during the day Thursday… with a decent shot you’ll get wet by the time you head home in the evening.
It will be soggy at times heading into Friday, with the main moisture axis eventually sliding south of the Ohio River Friday night.
This will be in response to series of cold fronts that deliver our coldest air since February.
The first front arrives Friday morning. A second front, the Arctic variety, has a bigger bite and paves the way for a C-O-L-D weekend.
Highs Saturday will be a good 15° below normal. Sunday morning wind chills will be in the single digits, and “highs” Sunday will be colder than the average high. If our forecast high of 26° verifies, it would mark the coldest November daytime high since 2000.
With Arctic air in place we’ll need to be watchful of a “potential” storm system. It’s waaaaaay to far out to pinpoint any certainties, but snow in Central Indiana before Thanksgiving is very much in play.
I’m not convinced of the far southern/eastern solution in current modeling (image below next Tuesday at 7am). Still plenty of time to monitor, and there will definitely be changes.
Stay tuned in the days ahead as we update on potential local impacts.
National Weather Service offices from Indianapolis and North Webster continue to survey the damage aftermath from tornadoes Sunday. They found two additional tornado paths in White County and an additional touchdown in Carroll County, which pushes the “preliminary” state total to 26.
That figure (which may climb) puts November 17, 2013 in third (correction from NWS Indianapolis) place on the single day tornado event list. The 37 tornadoes on June 2, 1990 remains the most for a single day in Indiana on record. But the figure that means most to us is ZERO… as in the number of fatalities in the state Sunday. We’ll continue updating the final stats
A bright sky teaming up with a stiff southwest wind delivers much warmer temperatures today… though that same breeze makes for blustery conditions.
After a couple of days in the 30s for afternoon temperatures, low to mid 50s will feel like much nicer.
The persistent southwest wind will steadily transport increasing amounts of atmospheric moisture. Initially this occurs in the mid/upper levels Friday with partly to mostly cloudy conditions. Wind and clouds keeps lows in the 30s overnight, and highs tomorrow slowly creep back into the 50s.
Clouds mostly have more bark than bite Friday and Saturday, with little rain chances until Sunday. Computer model guidance continues to suggest the “possibility” of a severe weather outbreak across the Ohio Valley (including Central Indiana) Sunday.
The latest run of the EURO model (image below) shows a deepening low pressure system over Wisconsin Sunday at 7pm, with a favored diffluent flow at 500mb (area of best lift from jet stream) over Central Indiana.
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Though “modeled” wind fields aren’t as strong from top to bottom as the Halloween wind event, they are more than ample to deliver severe weather. However, atmospheric instability may be markedly higher this time around, the combination puts an increased risk of damaging wind and possibly tornadoes in play area wide.
Latest NAM Significant Tornado Parameter output (takes multiple parameters into account) is eye-catching… with values over 1 considered noteworthy.
While there are model differences regarding timing, degree of instability and location… we’re asking you to keep with changes regarding weather on Sunday.
For now it’s a “risk” but it deserves your attention. Tornadoes and damaging wind will be possible, as it appears squall line will move across the region. Stay tuned for updates.