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Jan
23

Latest On Sunday Snow Potential: Going Up For Some

Posted By · January 23, 2015 at 4:44 pm

Stubborn low clouds put the kibosh on temperatures reaching the 40s today.  Instead many areas remained locked in the lower to mid 30s this afternoon.

TEMPS RPM FRIDAY 6PM

We’re monitoring the northern fringe of a vast precipitation shield that may drop some light snow over the southern tier counties… including cities like Seymour, Bedford and possibly North Vernon.  But for the most part clouds have more bark than bite this evening and tonight.

PLANNER TONIGHT PLANNER SATURDAY

This system quickly exits the region shortly after midnight but we’ll see residual cloud cover overnight.  Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s and lower 30s.  Saturday is quiet and slightly warmer with sky conditions varying from cloudy to partly sunny.  Highs near 40 degrees tomorrow, providing enough breaks occur.

RPM SATURDAY 6PM RPM SUNDAY 6AM

Then all eyes focus on a well advertised clipper system that arrives Sunday.  Light snow is possible by sunrise that day and then we’ll see a mix of snow and rain over parts of the region.  At this point the exact track remains uncertain and confidence is low due to some model spread on various low pressure tracks.  I’ve decided to split the difference of the far southern most track and the far northern most track.  Keep in mind a northern track leads to more mixing/rain and less snow… and more southern track puts higher snow amounts in play.  As always we’ll fine tune as new guidance comes into the forecast center.

RPM SUNDAY 11AM RPM SUNDAY 4PM RPM SUNDAY 8PM

Subject to change but the initial forecast for Indy is an inch or less… with some rain expecting to mix in from time to time.  Just north of I-74 to Lafayette-Kokomo-Muncie, and 2-4″ from Monticello-Peru-Marion to Fort Wayne.  This is a LOW CONFIDENCE forecast due to the track uncertainty, potential mixing of rain, and expected surface temperatures above freezing.

SNOW MAP PLANNER SUNDAY HEADLINES

Check back as this will likely change between now and Sunday.  Another feature of interest is the latest European model at 240 hours out.  Yes… it’s a LONG way out.  But it is showing a bitterly cold air mass from a cross-polar flow that would rival our coldest of the winter to arrive Super Bowl Sunday.  We’ll see if it verifies.  Stay tuned – Sean Ash

JET STREAM SUPER BOWL SUNDAY 7DAY

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Jan
22

Update On Clipper System That Arrives Sunday

Posted By · January 22, 2015 at 4:41 pm

Thursday marks the first time in seven days high temperatures didn’t hit 40 degrees.  For a change it actually looked and felt more like January due to a healthy blanket of overcast covering central Indiana.

TEMPS 24HR CHANGE

This cloud deck will partially break overnight to allow temperatures to eventually bottom-out in the middle 20s.  A few icy patches are possible Friday morning with any leftover moisture on roadways.

PLANNER TONIGHT PLANNER FRIDAY RPM FRIDAY 4PM

Friday and Saturday feature varying amounts of cloud cover and afternoon highs in the lower 40s.  This precedes a clipper system that will impact the region Sunday into Monday.  The trend continues on a northern track with this feature… putting most of the region on its warmer, wetter side Sunday afternoon.

RPM SATURDAY 7AM RPM SATURDAY 2PM RPM SUNDAY 7AM

We believe rain is more likely than snow with temperatures climbing into the lower and mid-40s Sunday afternoon.  Though rain will mix with or changeover to a period of snow Sunday night into early Monday morning… accumulation will be very light locally.  However several inches will fall between Fort Wayne and Detroit.  Be cautious if you’re traveling north or coming home from that way Sunday.

SUNDAY SET UP SNOWFALL EURO MODEL SNOWFALL GFS MODEL

This is not great news for snow lovers in Central Indiana.  Indianapolis is 8″ below normal snowfall since July 1st (the “snow season”) and a whopping 28″ less than last year’s mammoth winter season.  Amarillo’s recent snow storm dumped 12″ in the past 24 hours… which is greater than Louisville, Evansville and Indianapolis COMBINED.

SNOW SEASON MAP SNOW SEASON 7DAY

A below normal chill arrives in the wake of the coming clipper system early early next week… though it’s certainly nothing terribly cold.  Highs will be in the 25 to 30 range Monday and Tuesday with lows in the teens.  Upper level energy pivoting across the region embedded in a trough may trigger some light snow Tuesday.  But no big snow-makers are in the 7 day forecast at this point.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

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Jan
21

Foggy And Misty Start To The Morning Commute

Posted By · January 21, 2015 at 3:30 am

Good Wednesday morning Central Indiana.  We begin on a foggy note with areas of low visibility and mist for the morning commute.  Temperatures should stay at or slightly above freezing.  Though widespread icing isn’t likely, some slick patches are possible… especially in northern Indiana.  Might be a good idea to add a little extra time to your drive this morning.

TEMPS VISIBILITY PLANNER MORNING

Temperatures later today again climb above normal.  Expect highs in the lower to mid 40s from Indy and points southward, with mid to upper 30s farther north in thicker cloud cover.  A quick-moving disturbance will ride across the state and bring in a period of rain/snow showers.

RPM WED 8AM RPM WED 12PM RPM WED 3PM RPM WED 6PM

We don’t envision any significant accumulation and with temperatures well above freezing later today roads will be mostly wet.  Lows drop back into the 20s overnight so some refreezing is possible for the Thursday morning commute.

PLANNER AFTERNOON PLANNER TONIGHT PLANNER THURSDAY

Above normal temperatures continue into Friday and Saturday.  We’ll need to keep close tabs on a southern system Friday night-Saturday.  Though it should stay south of the Ohio River… recent model trends have been coming farther north.  We continue to target Sunday afternoon into predawn Monday for a better “chance” of snow potential with a clipper system.  Safe travels this morning – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Jan
19

Chance Of Light Freezing Rain For Some Tonight

Posted By · January 19, 2015 at 4:37 pm

What another spectacular winter afternoon in Central Indiana with temperatures well into the 40s.  This marks the fourth straight day at or above 40 degrees and the string should continue Tuesday.

TEMPS PLANNER EVENING

We continue to monitor a weak disturbance over Iowa for precipitation potential here overnight.  At this point it appears the best “chance” of light rain and/or freezing rain will be across mainly the northern one-third of the state… mainly between the hours of 12am and 5am.

RADAR RPM 7PM MONDAY RPM 12AM TUESDAY

Certainly not everyone will see precipitation tonight, but as temperatures slowly cool below freezing some slick spots are possible in areas that do get a little wet.

RPM 3AM TUESDAY RPM 7AM TUESDAY

Overall cloud cover tonight helps keep temperatures in the upper 20s as opposed to the lower 20s this morning.  This should also help prevent fog from developing… something that made roadway slicks Monday morning.  But we can’t totally rule out icy patches early Tuesday morning.

LOWS TONIGHT PLANNER TUESDAY MORNING RPM 4PM TUESDAY

Temperatures should quickly climb into the 40s around midday, with highs tomorrow in the 45 to low 50 degree range from Indy-southward.  Definitely not a bad day to get outside again before the expected pattern change arrives next week.

HIGHS TOMORROW PLANNER TUESDAY AFTERNOON RPM WEDNESDAY 7AM

Another quick-hitting disturbance arrives Wednesday with a chance of more mixed showers.  With highs in the mid/upper 30s during the precipitation we don’t envision major problems on the roads.

RPM 7PM WEDNESDAY SNOW STATS

Snow lovers might not want to read this section.  It’s been a very wimpy winter thus far in that category.  Seasonal snowfall (since July 1st) in Indianapolis is about 8″ below normal and a whopping 27″ less than this time last year.  Our next “best” chance of accumulation is late Sunday into Monday morning.  Though it’s much too early to to get excited or even discuss amounts for that matter.  This opportunity is a byproduct of the advertised switch back to below normal temperatures.

SNOWFALL EURO SNOWFALL GFS JET STREAM NEXT MONDAY

After a seasonably cold day Thursday temperatures return to near 40 degrees Friday and Saturday.  This caps off the January thaw.  Long range indicators continue to point toward a pattern shift to hit on the 25th (Sunday) and deliver colder than normal for the last of the month.  Stay tuned for updates as highs in the 20s seem likely this time next week – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Jan
18

January Thaw Continues

Posted By · January 18, 2015 at 5:21 pm

For the third straight day temperatures climbed into the 40s for the southern half of Indiana… including the Indy metro area.  Colder ground and clouds keep the northern viewing area in the mid-30s, and this will be a theme for the next few days.

HIGHS TODAY PLANNER EVENING

Colts Forecast:  While the AFC Championship Game may begin dry… heavy rain likely impacts at the very least the second half.  It’s conceivable half-inch rain amounts occur during the game.  Though it should be noted this will be the “warmest” AFC Championship game played in Foxboro.  GO COLTS!

COLTS RPM 630 COLTS RPM 9PM COLTS RPM 8PM PLANNER COLTS

Cloud cover varies overnight with lows slowly dropping into the upper 20s by sunrise.  The stiff breeze diminishes after sunset and helps allow areas of fog to develop.  Highs Monday and Tuesday again climb into the 40s with decreasing cloud cover during both afternoons.

RPM 6AM RPM 4PM

Notice that due to the colder ground (from heavier snow pack last week), and likely greater cloud coverage, temperatures north of I-74 will be over 10 degrees cooler for afternoon highs.  Southern Indiana could very well be in the lower 50s both Monday and Tuesday.

PLANNER MONDAY RPM 6AM TUESDAY RPM 4PM TUESDAY PLANNER TUESDAY

A weak upper disturbance brings a chance of light snow showers and flurries Wednesday… but there we don’t’ foresee any big systems or cold impacted the area between now and Sunday morning.

RPM WED 6AM RPM 1PM WED 7DAY

We’ll call it the January thaw for now.  But we still believe a colder pattern kicks in after next weekend and the pattern becomes winterish Sunday night into early next week.  Stay tuned for updates – Sean Ash

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Jan
16

Nearing 50 Degrees For Some Saturday

Posted By · January 16, 2015 at 4:47 pm

Another pleasant winter day in Central Indiana.  Bonus sunshine and a calm wind produced arguable one of the best days of the month.

HIGHS TODAY

Highs hit the lower 40s in the southern half of the state.  Temperatures should quickly drop into the 20s after sunset, but likely rise back into the 30s by sunrise as a southwest wind increases.

PLANNER EVENING PLANNER MORNING RPM 6AM SATURDAY

Saturday will be one of the warmest days of the month as highs near 50 degrees from Indy-southward.  Even areas in Northern Indiana with snow pack likely climb into the upper 30s/lower 40s.  The tradeoff will be a strengthening southwest wind sustained at 15-25mph and gusting up to 35mph.

RPM 4PM SATURDAY PLANNER AFTERNOON RPM 10PM SATURDAY

Sunshine fills the sky for most of tomorrow before clouds increase toward sunset.  We still anticipate a line of gusty showers to arrive along a cold front after sunset.  Temperatures drop behind the front on Sunday… but likely remain a few degrees above normal in the upper 30s for highs.

RPM 6AM SUNDAY RPM 1PM SUNDAY PLANNER SUNDAY

Scattered flurries and mixed showers are possible within the cold air and cloud cover Sunday.

HEADLINES COLTS 4PM COLTS 7PM

We continue to monitor a wet set up in the northeastern U.S. Sunday as low pressure intensifies off the Atlantic Coast.  Though there are some timing issues regarding when the heaviest rain axis arrives… it does appear likely the heavy rain will impact at least some of the AFC Championship Game.  Temperatures will be near 40 degrees with wind speeds varying from 5-15mph to 20 -25mph.  GO COLTS!

COLTS 10PM PLANNER COLTS

Locally… temperatures quickly return to the mid-40s Monday in what should be a pleasant day.  Much of next week will be seasonably cool… with no major storms in the forecast thus far.  Stay tuned and have a great weekend – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Jan
15

Thursday Is Warmest In 11 Days. Even Warmer Air Yet To Come

Posted By · January 15, 2015 at 10:25 pm

In what’s been an unseasonably cold January thus far, sunshine and a southwest wind delivered a rare treat to Central Indiana Thursday.  Highs reached their warmest levels since January 4th… marking only the 6th day this month a high above freezing in Indianapolis.

HIGHS TODAY

Even areas with the 4-6″ snow pack up north neared the freezing mark for a change.  The average temperature this month is over 9 degrees below normal, and actually colder than last January through 15 days.  That’s quite a feat considering we’ve had 18″ less snowfall compared to January 2014.

HEADLINES RPM FRIDAY 7AM

No snow tonight, but some patchy freezing fog is possible by sunrise Friday.  It’s uncertain how widespread this might be, but it’s a good idea to get up early and check in with Chuck Lofton for an update before heading out.  Some cloudiness is possible early Friday before most enjoy some more decent sunshine to finish the week.  Highs will be near freezing in many areas.

RPM FRIDAY 12PM RPM FRIDAY 5PM PLANNER FRIDAY

We’ve had Saturday circled for awhile now as the warmest of the bunch.  Mid to upper 40s remain likely for areas without snow cover.  Even north of I-74 highs should still hit 40 degrees and likely melt a good deal of the snow.  The warmth comes with a breezy price tag… southwesterlies may gust up to 35mph during Saturday afternoon.

HIGHS SATURDAY HIGHS SATURDAY OHV

East side of a cold front should be a mostly sunny location to start the weekend.  A line of gusty showers accompanies the frontal passage Saturday evening and pre-dawn Sunday.

RPM SATURDAY 4PM RPM SATURDAY 10PM RPM SUNDAY 7AM

High temperatures will be about 10 degrees colder behind the front Sunday.  Flurries and snow showers remain possible within the overcast Sunday too… with a localized dusting fair game.

RPM SUNDAY 4PM HIGHS SUNDAY RPM SUNDAY 4PM BOSTON

The cold front teams up with developing low pressure off the Atlantic Coast to set up a “rain train” in the northeast.  This spells trouble for AFC Championship Game conditions in Foxboro.  At the very least rain is likely.  Worst case scenario is the rain will be heavy and wind becomes gusty.  Stay tuned for updates on the Colts Forecast.

PLANNER COLTS 7DAY

We’ll be quiet early next week but will monitor late week closely as the upper pattern changes.  All long range indicators point toward a much colder finish to January and this transition may trigger a storm system in eastern U.S. next week… though exactly where and how strong are extremely suspect.  Check back for updates – Sean Ash

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Jan
15

Getting Closer To The 40s

Posted By · January 15, 2015 at 4:26 pm

Did you enjoy the sunshine today?  It was breezy but certainly bright across Central Indiana and temperatures responded nicely with many locations above freezing.  Sunshine and a southwest wind helped push temperatures to 40 from Indy-southward… and a good 15-20 degrees warmer area wide than 24 hours ago.

TEMPS 24HR CHANG TEMP TREND PLANNER EVENING

We’re expecting a clear evening and seasonably cool temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.

It appears low clouds increase tonight along an approaching frontal boundary.  We’ll need to monitor visibility closely with the potential for some freezing fog by Friday morning.  Lows will range from the mid-teens up north to lower 20s south.

TONIGHT LOWS TONIGHT RPM FRIDAY 7AM

The start Friday morning may be cloudier than the brightness we enjoyed today.  Morning low clouds thin to allow for late day sunshine.  Expect highs near freezing Friday before the well advertised warm up for Saturday.

RPM FRIDAY 5PM PLANNER FRIDAY HIGHS TOMORROW RPM SATURDAY 4PM HIGHS SATURDAY

Highs climb into mid/upper 40s for areas along and south of I-70 to start the weekend.  Highs will be closer to 40 degrees in the snow pack… but still the warmest for awhile.  The warm up is short in nature with a cold front arriving Saturday night.  Highs return to the 30s Sunday along with flurries and snow showers.

RPM SUNDAY 7AM 7DAY

By the way, for the Colts-New England game Sunday, look for a real good chance for rain and temperatures in the upper 30s/low 40s in the Boston area during the game – Sean Ash

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