Home News Weather Traffic Sports Hot Topics
 Blog Homepage

Author Archive

Apr
20

Wind Advisory Tuesday & Frost Possible Later This Week

Posted By · April 20, 2015 at 5:03 pm

Peak wind gusts across Central Indiana today were in the 35-40mph range.  The wind remains steady this evening and will be brisk overnight into Tuesday morning… saving the region from frost development.

WIND GUSTS WIND ADVISORY WIND GUSTS RPM

Daytime heating, albeit minimal, helps mix down stronger wind at 5,000 feet aloft within the pressure gradient to the surface.  This wind field is a result of the thight pressure gradient around a low pressure system in the Great Lakes.

Expect wind gusts Tuesday in the 40-50mph range within and around the Wind Advisory area that’s in effect from 11am to 8pm Tuesday.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN

Higher pressure builds in across the Ohio Valley later in the week and aids in frost potential Thursday and Friday morning.  This is when wind will be much calmer, and under a clear sky leads to greater raditional cooling.  With lows expected to be in the low to mid 30s… I expect Frost Advisories to be issued later this week over parts, if not all, of the viewing area.

THURSDAY FRIDAY FROST FACTS

The average last 32 degree temperature in Indianapolis is April 18th and the average last 36 degree temperature (when patchy frost can occur) is April 25th.  You’ll likely need to take precautions to protect any tender vegetation that’s blooming.  Check back for updates.

7DAY

Spotty showers are possible Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday.  Medium to long range guidance suggests Saturday will be rather wet and raw with highs struggling to hit 50 degrees.  Global teleconnections also point toward this spell of unseasonably cool weather to linger for the rest of the month and possibly into early May – Sean Ash

Comments (0)
Apr
20

Monday Marks Prolonged Spell Of Below Normal Temperatures

Posted By · April 20, 2015 at 1:18 pm

In the wake of a cold front that passed through the Indy metro area around 9am this morning… gusty wind and below normal temperatures are the big story this afternoon.  Temperatures range from 45 to 55 degrees for late day highs.

TEMPS TEMPS OHV FRONT

The aforementioned front is now pushing across Ohio and attached to an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes.  This low will be the driver of our weather for several days and becomes cut-off from the main jet stream.  This allows it to spin around the Great Lakes day after day and reinforce already cooler than normal conditions.

LOW PRESSURE RPM 5PM TODAY RPM 9PM TODAY

This is the first day of an unseasonably cool stretch of days with temperature anomalies 10-15 degrees below normal.

Spotty showers pop up during peak heating this afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes.  Clouds and showers diminish after sunset, but the brisk wind remains a constant heading into Tuesday morning.

PLANNER EVENING PLANNER TONIGHT

Despite clearing and lows dropping into the upper 30s and lower 40s… the steady breeze keeps frost from morning tonight.  Expect brisk conditions to linger into Wednesday morning as the pressure gradient around the Great Lakes Low keeps the wind in the 10mph+ range for the next 48 hours.

LOWS TONIGHT

Morning sunshine tomorrow gives way to a building cloud deck and more showers in the afternoon.  Highs near 60 degrees Tuesday but a strong wind of 25-35mph makes it feel cooler.

RPM 7AM TUESDAY RPM 4PM TUESDAY PLANNER TUESDAY

Steady wind saves the region from frost Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.  But we’ll need to monitor Thursday and Friday mornings for frost potential and the wind eases and we’ll see greater raditional cooling.  Either way lows will chill into the low to mid 30s.  A bright finish to the week gives way to clouds and showers heading into Saturday.

RPM 5PM WEDNESDAY RPM 7AM THURSDAY JET STREAM 7DAY

All signs point to a much colder than normal finish to the month of April and perhaps beginning of May.  Stay tuned for updates – Sean Ash

Comments (0)
Apr
19

More Downpours Next Few Hours

Posted By · April 19, 2015 at 8:54 pm

Another round of downpours pivoting around an area of low pressure will move across Central Indiana between now and midnight.  No severe weather expected, but a rumble of thunder or locally gusty wind remain possible.

RAINFALL RADAR RPM 10PM TONIGHT

After midnight rain become fairly scarce but showers remain possible heading into the Monday morning commute.  While I don’t envision a wash-out tomorrow like today, showers or a rumble of thunder are possible from sunrise to sunset.

RPM 7AM MONDAY PLANNER TOMORROW

If you have outdoor these showers will be widely scattered and quick-movers.  So a washout seems unlikely, but a delay(s) are possible given the 50% coverage that’s anticipated.

RPM 12PM MONDAY

RPM 5PM MONDAY

The rest of the week features cooler than normal conditions with highs in the 50s and several mornings in the 30s.  We’ll need to closely monitor nights that will have a clear sky and light wind for frost potential.  Updates to come – Sean Ash

7DAY

Comments (0)
Apr
19

Update On Soggy Sunday

Posted By · April 19, 2015 at 4:39 pm

The steady, heavy at times, rain shield continues to lift north-northeastward into north central Indiana.  By 6pm the heaviest downpours should be north of I-70.  Impressive rainfall amounts in the half inch to inch plus keep street flooding in play.

WEATHERBUG TEMPS 24hr temp change

Clouds and rain delivered a much cooler finish to the weekend… and a good 15 to 20 degrees less than the mid/upper 70s from Saturday.

PLANNER TONIGHT HRRR 9PM TODAY

We’ll also need to monitor southern and southeastern Indiana for isolated storms this evening where some destabilization may aid in locally strong/severe storms.  It’s not likely, but rather a low probability (<5% chance within 25 miles of a point) of locally severe wind or a quick tornado spin-up in stronger cells.

HRRR 11PM TODAY HRRR 5AM MONDAY

Scattered showers and storms remain possible overnight into Monday afternoon before precipitation chances diminish by mid-week.  Low pressure strengthening over Central Indiana will create gusty wind late evening and overnight… when wind speeds may approach 30mph.  The main forecast headline this week will be cooler than temperatures with several days of highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

PLANNER MONDAY RPM 7AM MONDAY RPM MONDAY 2PM RPM MONDAY 7PM

After the sunset tomorrow the instability clouds/showers (driven by much colder air aloft) diminish and set up a chilly night in the 30s.  This will be the first of several colder than normal nights this week.  A couple of mornings patchy frost will be possible and fine-tune this part of the forecast in the days ahead.  At this point organized precipitation seems unlikely, but spotty showers will be possible Wednesday into Saturday.

RPM TUESDAY 7AM RPM 7PM TUESDAY JET STREAM 7DAY

More updates to come this evening – Sean Ash

Comments (0)
Apr
15

From Sun To Showers Next 12 Hours

Posted By · April 15, 2015 at 11:21 am

It’s shaping up to be a decent day across Central Indiana with a mix of sun and clouds.

TEMPS INDIANS HIGHS TODAY

Highs climb into the mid and upper 60s with a easterly breeze up to 25mph this afternoon.  Great weather for the Indianapolis Indians game that begins at 1:35pm.

Clouds increase this evening with the latest round of showers creeping south to north around an upper level disturbance.  By midnight many backyards will have rain and we do expect occasional rumbles of thunder from this evening to sunrise Thursday.

RPM 5PM RPM 11PM RPM THURSDAY 6AM

Thursday will be unsettled with periods of showers and thunderstorms.  It doesn’t look like it will rain all day tomorrow, but rain/thunder are possible from the time you wake until sunset.

RPM THURSDAY 5PM RAIN POTENTIAL

This disturbance breaks down and departs to allow for a few decent days Friday and Saturday.  Expect partly sunny conditions and highs in the 70s.  Confidence is higher that we’ll have dry conditions for the Susan G. Komen Race For The Cure Saturday morning… with temperatures in the upper 40s/lower 50s around sunrise.

RPM FRIDAY 7AM RPM FRIDAY 5PM RPM SATURDAY 7AM EVENT FORECAST

However computer models are locking in on a wetter solution for Sunday… which is the biggest change to the forecast package today.  Also of note is that a stretch of cooler than temperatures appears likely during the middle of next week when highs will be in the 50s for a few days.  Have a great afternoon and please check back for updates – Sean Ash

7DAY

 

Comments (0)
Apr
14

Back To Dry For Now

Posted By · April 14, 2015 at 3:22 pm

The gray that’s covered the state for much of the day is breaking in spots for peeks of sun this afternoon. A northeast wind continues to undercut this cloud deck to provide a refreshing, and dry breeze into the state.

TEMPS

Highs top out in the lower to mid 60s… though upper 60s are possible in the brightest spots. Clouds should continue to break this evening and overnight to allow for better raditional cooling. This results in colder morning lows tomorrow with Wednesday morning beginning in the lower 40s.

PLANNER EVENING RPM WEDNESDAY RPM WEDNESDAY 8AM PLANNER MORNING

We’ll also begin brighter tomorrow and as a result finish milder overall as highs near 70 degrees Wednesday afternoon. Though there is a slight shower chance by evening, higher rain chances hold off until Thursday.

INDIANS RPM WEDNESDAY 6PM

Expect scattered to numerous showers and storms Thursday. Much of this breaks down and departs by Friday morning. However latest model guidance suggests Friday will be rather foggy and cloudy. Friday finishes dry with peeks of sun and highs in the 70s.

RPM THURSDAY 9AM

We continue to call for a dry forecast for the Susan G Komen Race for the Cure on Saturday. However it should be noted there is massive model disagreement on the weekend solution in Central Indiana. One output depicts a wet/stormy set up on Saturday. At this time we believe this is an outlier and opt to keep the weekend dry.

7DAY

There’s plenty of time to change as needed for Saturday and Sunday. Check back for updates – Sean Ash

Comments (0)
Apr
13

Widely Scattered Showers/Storms This Afternoon

Posted By · April 13, 2015 at 1:38 pm

Scattered showers continue to move across Central Indiana this afternoon, with some pockets of locally heavier rain.  No severe weather is expected but an increase in lightning seems likely in eastern and southeastern Indiana where surface temperatures are warmer.

RADAR TEMPS RPM MONDAY 3PM RPM MONDAY 7PM

Showers and thunder exit early this evening.  Despite lingering cloud cover, don’t cancel your plans to attend the Indianapolis Indians game this evening.  First pitch at 7:05pm includes temperatures in the mid-60s with northwesterly breezes.  It’s a good idea to take a light jacket.

INDIANS RPM TUESDAY 6AM PLANNER TOMORROW PLANNER TOMORROW AFTERNOON

Clouds likely linger overnight into Tuesday morning.  Expect a decrease in cloudiness tomorrow and a pleasant afternoon in the upper 60s tomorrow.  Wednesday is also pleasant with a slow increase in clouds.  Highs near 70 before some evening showers creep into the state toward sunset.

RPM TUESDAY 5PM RPM WEDNESDAY 7AM RPM WEDNESDAY 5PM RPM THURSDAY 7AM

Thursday and Friday are unsettled with mainly cloudy conditions and periods of rain/storms.  The departure and breakdown of this upper level feature not being handled well in medium range modeling data.  As of now we’ll keep the weekend forecast dry.  But realize there may be drastic changes to both Saturday & Sunday to include rain/storm chances.  A few solutions depict the upper level hovering over the Ohio Valley which would up the ante on precipitation chances.  Check back for updates – Sean Ash

7DAY

 

Comments (0)
Apr
12

Storms Returning Monday Afternoon

Posted By · April 12, 2015 at 5:27 pm

Mid to high level clouds have increased across Central Indiana this afternoon, but with other then a few sprinkles in far northwestern Indiana will continue to enjoy dry conditions.  Better rain chances this evening are over the Quad-Cities area where the core an upper disturbance exists, but is racing north-northeastward into the western Great Lakes.

VIS 1KM PLANNER TONIGHT

The remnant cloud debris from this features, and a steady southeasterly wind, keep temperatures mainly in the 50s overnight.  We still expect dry conditions to begin Monday with at least partial sun for the morning commute.  But a cold front arriving during the afternoon triggers scattered to widespread showers and storms.

RPM MONDAY 9AM RPM MONDAY 2PM PLANNER MONDAY

Give or take… rain/storm hit northwestern Indiana by 2pm, the Indy metro area by 5pm, and southeastern Indiana by 8pm.  Though severe weather isn’t anticipated, locally heavy storms will produce rain amounts in excess of three-quarters of an inch of rainfall.  Any storm is also capable of frequent lightning and gusty wind.

RPM MONDAY 5PM RPM TUESDAY 12AM

Planning on attending the Indianapolis Indians game Monday evening?  A rain/storm delay is certainly possible, but it’s a possibility the storm axis is southeast of  Victory Field by 7pm.  Check radar and the Indians’ website before heading out.

PLANNER MONDAY EVENING RAIN POTENTIAL RPM TUESDAY 5PM

The passage of the front Monday evening pushes most of the rain out of the state by Tuesday 12am.  However clouds may linger Tuesday morning before the sky become mostly sunny by Tuesday afternoon.  Much of Wednesday looks nice before storm chances increase again heading into Thursday morning.

RPM WEDNESDAY 11AM PLANNER SATURDAY

The early call for next weekend is quiet, mostly bright conditions again!  This would time out nicely with The Race For The Cure Saturday morning.  Stay tuned for updates – Sean Ash

7DAY

Comments (0)