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Aug
31

Update On Severe Storm Potential Late Labor Day

Posted By · August 31, 2014 at 3:55 pm

Good Sunday afternoon.  Clouds have thinned across central Indiana to allow for sunshine and to help boost temperatures into the lower and mid 80s for highs in the next few hours.  The sun and warmer temperatures also will help trigger additional isolated downpours, though many backyards remain dry this evening.

EVENING PLANNER

Strong to severe storms will emerge upstream this evening over the Upper Midwest and this feature becomes our headliner for the Labor Day holiday.  For good reason, based on latest modeling, the Slight Risk for Monday has been expanded to encompass most of the viewing area.

SPC SUNDAY SPC MONDAY RPM

Muggy conditions remain overnight into Labor Day morning with the possibility of a few showers returning by sunrise Monday.  Shower and thunder chances continue into the afternoon, but the main timing for heavy and potentially widespread storms is after 4-5pm Monday.

RPM2 RPM3

The main story tomorrow is the threat for strong to severe storms late in the day.  Model guidance is in good agreement for a linear feature impacting the area Monday evening into the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday… though exact location/track is to be determined.

RPM4 SPC MONDAY ADI

Severe wind gusts and flash flooding are in play with this set up and some areas could see an additional 1-3″ by Tuesday 7am, but again the track of the heaviest rain is uncertain at the moment.

RAIN POTENTIAL STORM THREATS LABOR DAY PLANER RPM5 RPM6

Rain and storm coverage diminishes heading into Tuesday afternoon and sets the stage for a brighter Wednesday.  The end of the week is highlighted by hot air and perhaps another round of 90s.  Long range indicators suggest cooler, pleasant air may sneak into the region by Sunday morning.

RPM7 RPM8

There is medium confidence on this happening at the moment… but if it verifies highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s are possible.  Check back for updates on severe potential – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Aug
29

Periods Of Heavy Storms This Holiday Weekend

Posted By · August 29, 2014 at 4:14 pm

After a cloudy start temperatures are responding to the brighter sky and passage of a warm front.  Highs will range from 85 to near 90 in spots the next few hours.

OPERATION FOOTBALL

This Evening:  Sunshine is helping to trigger widely scattered, but locally heavy, downpours and storms.  Rain chances are in the 20-40% range.  It’s not a guarantee you get wet during Operation Football, the Indianapolis Indians game or Luke Bryan concert… but it’s certainly a possibility until the sun sets.

INDIANS FORECAST RPM RPM2 RPM3

Tonight:  Expect a fairly muggy overnight but quiet in terms of storm coverage until Saturday morning.  I expect storms that develop near the Mississippi River overnight to slide into the region toward sunrise.  Check in with Kelly Greene Saturday morning beginning at 6am for an update on the progress of theses storms.

RPM4 SATURDAY PLANNER

Saturday:  It won’t rain all day tomorrow, but it’s certainly fair game for showers and storms from the time you wake to the time you go to bed.

RPM5 RPM6

Much like this evening, it’s not a given storms impact the last home game of the season for the Indianapolis Indians Saturday evening… but it’s a possibility.  Likewise for the Indy Eleven match tomorrow as well.  Check Live Doppler 13 Radar online or on our mobile app.

INDY ELEVEN RPM7

Sunday:  Showers and storms become widespread Saturday night into the first half of Sunday.  But latest model guidance suggests the axis of rain may dive southward toward the Ohio River Sunday afternoon.  If this verifies we could salvage a decent Sunday afternoon.  We’ll need to monitor this trend.

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Labor Day begins dry but rather muggy.  Highs Monday climb back into the mid and upper 80s and an approaching front triggers more heavy storms Monday evening.  This front stalls across the region for a few days… delivering multiple complexes of storms next week.  Have a great weekend and check the radar for outdoor events – Sean Ash

RAIN POTENTIAL 7DAY

Labor Day begins dry but rather muggy.  Highs Monday climb back into the mid and upper 80s and an approaching front triggers more heavy storms Monday evening.  This front stalls across the region for a few days… delivering multiple complexes of storms next week.  Have a great weekend and check the radar for outdoor events – Sean Ash

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Aug
28

Dry Now Before Some Heavy Storms Emerge This Weekend

Posted By · August 28, 2014 at 3:24 pm

Welcome to one of the drier afternoons central Indiana will experience over the next seven days.  It’s still humid, but not nearly as oppressive as it’s been the past several days.

3PM TEMPERATURES

Highs in central and northern Indiana will only top out in the lower to mid 80s.  But areas south of a warm front in southwestern Indiana will near 90 with heat indices near 100.

3PM HEAT INDEX

This Evening:  Overall it will be a nice evening in central Indiana and we hope to see you out at Victory Field for the Indianapolis Indians third to last home game this season.  Some of the WTHR staff will be out in the PNC Plaza where you can take the Blue Pledge against crime in the city.  Under a partly cloudy sky first pitch temperatures will be in the lower 80s.

INDIANS

Tonight: Low temperatures tonight from 65 to near 70 with haze and areas of fog developing by sunrise Friday.  There will be plenty of dry time tomorrow and take advantage before weekend downpours return.

LOWS TONIGHT FRIDAY PLANNER

Friday:  The aforementioned front moves northward Friday and bring a return of tropical humidity, and afternoon/evening storm chances.

RPM 7AM FRIDAY RPM 12PM FRIDAY RPM 5PM FRIDAY

Highs tomorrow near 90 area wide and you’ll need to monitor Live Doppler 13 Radar if you’ll be outside for the Indianapolis Indians, Operation Football or the NHRA U.S. Nationals.  Not every backyard gets wet Friday, but definitely a few storms to dodge.

HIGHS FRIDAY OPERATION FOOTBALL RPM 12AM SATURDAY RPM 7AM SATURDAY

This Weekend:  Rain and storm chances ramp up this weekend… specifically Saturday afternoon into the first half of Sunday.  A slow moving teams up with daytime heating and a “juicy” atmosphere to deliver areas of heavy rain.  Some locations may see 1 to 3 inches of rain by Sunday night.

RPM 4PM SATURDAY RPM 10PM SATURDAY RPM 7AM SUNDAY RAIN POTENTIAL 7DAY

This front stalls across the Ohio Valley early next week, and helps trigger multiple rounds of heavy storms Labor Day into Wednesday afternoon.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

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Aug
26

Another Stormy Afternoon For Some In Central Indiana

Posted By · August 26, 2014 at 3:24 pm

Here we go again.  Another round of strong to severe storms are moving across central Indiana this afternoon.  Heavy rain and lightning are likely, with 55mph+ wind gusts possible in stronger storms.  These storms may cause local flooding and quick rainfall of 1-2″.

RADAR310PM

Storms north of Indy will interact with an outflow boundary draped along the I-74 corridor.  As a result, we’re expecting storms to increase around the Indianapolis metro area by 5pm.  Additional severe thunderstorm warnings and/or a watch are possible this evening.

RPM 3PM TEMPERATURES

Hot, humid conditions can be expected away from these storms with highs in the lower 90s and heat indices in the lower 100s.

3PM HEAT INDEX RPM2

Storms slowly diminish after sunset, but stay weather aware between now and 11pm.  Areas of fog will once again develop within the humid air overnight.

RPM3 RPM4 RPM5

There is no end in sight to the oppressive Muggy Meter.  This means another night in the upper 60s and lower 70s… and more storm chances with hot highs near 90 Wednesday.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WEEKEND PATTERN

Several rounds of storms can be expected between now and through Labor Day weekend.  Timing will be mainly late afternoon and evening, but model guidance continues to paint a soggy set up for Sunday.  Be safe this evening and check back for updates.

7DAY

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Aug
25

Indy Finally Hits 90 Degrees And Heavy Evening Storms

Posted By · August 25, 2014 at 3:46 pm

Much of the next few hours will be just plain hot and humid.  But we’re monitoring strong to severe storms crossing into northern Indiana.  Our thinking is this cluster will continue building south-southeastward, feeding off of extremely unstable air in place.

RADAR 4PM

The latest HRRR model run picks up on the expected storminess, but likely is too slow with the timing based on current radar trends.  Storms are possible in central Indiana, and the Indianapolis metro, by 6-7pm.

HRRR MODEL

Heavy rain (1-3″) and very frequent cloud-to-ground lightning are likely, while 50mph+ gusts are possible.

STORM THREATS

The other big story is Indianapolis hitting 90 degrees for the first time this year.  This equates to the hottest day of the year thus far and snaps a 347 day streak without 90 degrees… the sixth longest streak on record.

4PM TEMPERATURES 4PM HEAT INDEX

Heat indices in the upper 90s and lower 100s make it challenging being outside for long periods of time.  Be safe and smart this evening.

STREAK OVER LATEST 90

 

The air mass blanketing the Ohio Valley remains tropical in nature.  This “super juice” will help feed the downpours and keep it uncomfortable for the next several days.

dewpoints MUGGY METER

We don’t anticipate a break in the oppressive Muggy Meter anytime soon, with uncomfortable humidity lingering into the Labor Day weekend.

POLLEN COUNT

The pollen count is also very high and will likely stay that way for the remainder of the week.  It’s Sniffle City and feeling like Key West at the same time… without the beach!

RPM

It’s a carbon copy forecast Tuesday.  Expect locally dense fog in the morning followed by hazy, humid conditions and heavy afternoon storms.  Be on the look out for more heavy rain and highs in the upper 80s with heat indices

RPM2 RPM3 RPM4 TUESDAY PLANNER

Heat indices tomorrow will again surge into the 90s and the humid conditions fill up much of the Skytrak13 7 day forecast.

7DAY

There is a daily chance of storms between now and Labor Day.  It doesn’t mean it will rain or storm all day long… though latest modeling does depict a soggy set up Sunday.  It’s still far away and much can change between now and then.  It’s a perfect forecast if you felt as though we missed out this summer.  Enjoy – Sean Ash

 

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Aug
24

Another Week With Heavy Storms Possible

Posted By · August 24, 2014 at 5:17 pm

We continue to deal with an oppressive Muggy Meter in central Indiana with tropical dew points locked into the 70s.  This is makes it feel uncomfortable, and requires frequent breaks if you’re outside for a lengthy period of time.

MUGGY METER

Another byproduct of the recent wet stretch and humid air is a very high pollen count… mainly consisting of ragweed and grasses.  If you’re like myself, you’ve probably noticed an increase in sniffles and sneezing.  It’s no fun and likely won’t get better anytime soon.

POLLEN

Though high temperatures technically remained below 90 degrees Sunday… heat indices climbed into the 90s and even lower 100s in southern Indiana.

HEATINDEX

The core of the hot dome/heat ridge remains displaced to our west.  This is where Heat Advisories/Excessive Heat Warnings are up and where temperatures are daily in the mid to upper 90s.

OHIO VALLEY TEMPS

This Evening: There isn’t an atmospheric trigger around to create widespread storms like Saturday evening.  But isolated showers and storms remain possible while the sun is up.  It should be noted that anything that can develop will have heavy rain potential with a highly “juicy” atmosphere in place.

EVENING PLANNER

RPM

Tomorrow: Monday will be similar to today.  Areas of dense fog in the morning followed by hazy sunshine and a slight storm chance in the afternoon.  Highs will near 90 and heat indices will be in the 90s.

RPM2 RPM3

Remember that while isolated, locally heavy rain is very much in play Monday afternoon if anything can develop.

MONDAY PLANNER

It’s been 348 days since Indianapolis’ last official 90 degree day.  That’s the 5th longest streak on record and Monday may be our best chance this week.

LAST 90 DEGREE DAY

Storm chances ramp up again Tuesday with the potential for multiple rounds of storms… both in the early morning and afternoon.

RPM4 RPM5 RPM6

Another 1-3″+ rainfall is possible for some depending on the track and coverage of storms.  This marks another unsettled stretch that brings daily chances of heavy storms as Indiana remains on the edge of the hot dome.  This is something in meteorology we call the “Ring of Fire.”

RAIN POTENTIAL

Warm, humid conditions look to prevail into the Labor Day weekend.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Aug
19

Strong Storms Possible This Afternoon And Evening

Posted By · August 19, 2014 at 1:51 pm

We’re closely monitoring an area of showers and storms in central Illinois for upstream development.  While this complex isn’t overly impressive at the moment, the atmosphere over western Indiana is becoming highly unstable and supportive for growth.

EVENING PLANNER HIGHS TODAY

This Afternoon: Between now and the arrival of storms expect highs in the upper 80s with hazy sunshine giving way to increasing clouds.

SPC

The entire viewing area is under a Slight Risk for severe weather and a Watch Box may be needed at some point.

rpm1

Thinking at the time of this posting is that storms are possible in western Indiana by 4pm and the Indianapolis metro by 6pm… though there remains some uncertainty on how much development will occur.

rpm2 rpm3

Remain weather aware until further notice with damaging wind, hail and localized flooding in play.  Some areas could see a quick inch of rain due to high moisture content.

STORMTHREATS

Tonight:  any storms will exit the state before midnight and we anticipate a quiet night… though areas of fog are possible again Wednesday morning.  Be sure and check back with Chuck Lofton early tomorrow for potential visibility issues and possible school delays due to fog.

rpm4 rpm5

Tomorrow: Much of Wednesday will be just hot and humid with highs in the mid to upper 80s.  A day of sunshine will allow instability to build and possibly help trigger isolated storms late in the day.

WEDNESDAY PLANNER HIGHS WEDNESDAY HIGHS THURSDAY

Long range: There is excellent model consensus on a hot pattern building into the Ohio Valley late week and into the heading.  This will likely delivery the first official 90 degree temperature to Indianapolis this year.  For now we expect a hot weekend in the 90s that may carry over into next week.

7DAY

Updates as needed this afternoon – Sean Ash

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Aug
17

Foggy Start Monday Morning

Posted By · August 17, 2014 at 10:14 pm

Showers will continue to diminish now that the sun has sun has set.  The focus overnight shifts to areas of dense fog developing.  While visibility is not a problem at the time of this posting, a light wind and high moisture content suggest it will be Monday morning.

VISIBILITY FOGPOTENTIAL

Tonight: Visibility may be low enough in spots Monday morning to slow travel and possibly cause school delays.  Check in with Chuck Lofton beginning at 4am for the latest.

BUS STOP MUGGYMETER

This is being aided by an oppressive Muggy Meter that will remain uncomfortable for a good chunk of this week.  Prepare to sweat it out heading into next weekend.

rpm1 rpm2 rpm3

Monday: Despite the fog and morning overcast, Monday will be mostly dry until late day when isolated showers and storms flare up in the humid air.  Highs tomorrow slowly creep into the 80s.

MONDAY PLANNER NO 90s Streak

The first of few rounds of heavy storms arrives Tuesday.  While widespread severe weather is not anticipated, torrential rain and frequent lightning is likely with these storms.

Medium to long rang guidance suggest an active set up in this week.  There is potential for multiple storm complexes to pass through central Indiana on the edge of an expanding hot dome.  Timing is highly uncertain at the moment so check back for updates.  But confidence is growing on our warmest stretch of the summer.

JET STREAM 2 HIGHS TUESDAY HIGHS WEDNESDAY

There is also a chance of Indianapolis finally hitting 90 degrees for the first time this season.  It’s been 341 days and counting since the city officially hit that mark… the 6th longest streak on record.  Have a great afternoon – Sean Ash

7DAY

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