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Aug
30

Heat Build This Week To Some Of The Hottest This Year

Posted By · August 30, 2015 at 5:48 pm

Summer heat to finish off August and open up September!  Hazy Sunday sunshine delivered the first of several days with above average highs… with many locations topping-out in the upper 80s.  Though isolated showers and a few storms developed, most backyards stay dry and that will be theme over the next seven days.

RPM 9PM TODAY RPM 7AM MONDAY PLANNER TONIGHT

 

 

 

Anything on radar diminishes quickly toward and after sunset.  Some patchy fog develops overnight as lows drop into the mid and upper 60s.  A near carbon copy of day tomorrow with hazy sun, warm highs in the upper 80s and isolated rain chances in the afternoon.

PLANNER MONDAY RPM 5PM MONDAY MUGGY METER

Sunday marked the 3rd warmest day of August and warmest since August 3rd when Indianapolis hit 89 degrees.  With only one day left in the month it appears this will be the first August since 2004 with no 90 degree days in August.  The Capital City has only reached that mark six times this year… which is well shy of the average of 21 days since 1871.  But it appears we’re going to make up for lost time this week.

AUGUST 90s HIGHS TUESDAY HIGHS WEDNESDAY

An upper level ridge spreads out over the eastern U.S. this week keep our weather quiet and summerish heading into the Labor Day weekend.  Highs each day will be near or above 90 degrees and very slim chances of rain.  Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above average this week and air conditioners certainly get a work out.

JET STREAM EURO RAIN SUMMER RAIN 7day

Have a great evening and check back for updates – Sean Ash

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Pleasant conditions this evening with =a light breeze and mild temperatures in the 60s.  Areas of fog develop late tonight but quickly diminish by mid-morning with plenty of hazy sun around for the morning commute.  Did you notice the reddish tint being more prevalent in the sunset Thursday evening?  This is due to increased haze and remnant smoke from the Pacific Northwestern U.S. wildfires that have spread eastward into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

SUNSET SMOKE LANDSAT NORTH LANDSAT GL

 

Due to a stagnant upper air pattern this will likely be a feature in the sky for several days and impact sunrises and sunsets.  It may also limit potential warming.

Lows in Indy drop into the upper 50s but lower 50s can be expected away for the city’s urban heat island.  Highs Friday climb into the lower 80s areas wide.  Should be a great night for week two of Operation Football and the beginning of Indy Greek Fest.

LOWS TONIGHT PLANNER TOMORROW HIGHS TOMORROW OPFB PLANNER

We’re still on track for warmer this weekend in the mid-80s.  As advertised since last Sunday… isolated rain chances remain the forecast.  But we want to stress probabilities are low you’ll get wet in any given place.  Confidence is higher on a noticeable increase in humidity however as the Muggy Meter gets uncomfortable.

MUGGY METER PLANNER SATURDAY RPM SATURDAY 4PM RPM SATURDAY 11PM RPM SUNDAY 2PM

Long range indicators continue to up the ante on summer heat next week with a prolonged stretch of warmer than normal air heading into Labor Day weekend.  Highs will be near or above 90 degrees and little rain chances at this point.

JET STREAM EURO RAIN EURO RAIN 2

We also continue to monitor Tropical Storm Erika, but there remains high uncertainty on track and strength beyond 48 hours.  However, if you’re traveling to the southeastern U.S. we’re advising you to keep tabs on changes.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

ERIKA ERIKA 2

7DAY

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Aug
26

Below For Now But Nearing 90 Degrees Next Week

Posted By · August 26, 2015 at 5:04 pm

Low clouds hung tough again today, but despite limited sunshine at times temperatures warmed into the mid and upper 70s.  Expect low cloudiness to gradually ease toward sunset this evening and comfortable conditions into Thursday morning.

TEMPS PLANNER EVENING PLANNER TONIGHT LOWS TONIGHT

Low temperatures will be near seasonal levels and highs tomorrow approach 80 degrees area wide.  It’s looking like another stellar evening for week two of Operation Football.  We’re still expecting temperatures to warm heading into the weekend and a weak upper level disturbance continue to warrant the mention of isolated rain/storm chances Saturday and Sunday.

PLANNER TOMORROW HIGHS TOMORROW OPFB HIGHS FRIDAY RPM FRIDAY 4PM RPM SATURDAY 11AM HIGHS SATURDAY

The upper air pattern next week is conducive to a prolonged period of unseasonably warm and dry weather to begin September.  Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s seem more and more likely given the modeled guidance with slim chances of rain.

JET STREAM 1

Afternoon model data has shifted the track of Tropical Storm Erika a bit to the east… but there remains considerable uncertainty this far out on track and intensity.  Though wind shear the next 48 hours will limit strengthening, conditions become favorable for intensification this weekend as Erika encounters very warm ocean water and less shear.  Definitely stay up to date if you have travel plans to Florida or the southeastern U.S.

ERIKA ERIKA TRACK ERIKA MODEL ERIKA MODEL 2 7DAY

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Aug
25

Clouds And Mild Today But Nearing 90 By This Time Next Week

Posted By · August 25, 2015 at 3:43 pm

As mentioned in the midday blog update… some areas are covered by a cumulus cloud field courtesy of a saturated layer between 4,000 and 6,000 feet.  The thicker cloud cover resides in the eastern and northeastern half of the state where temperatures are in the 60s.

TEMPS BUNKER HILL KOKOMO CICERO BLOOMFIELD

It’s brighter and milder farther west where highs have settled into the mid and even upper 70s.  This cloud deck, and the breeze, diminishes after sunset when the atmosphere stabilizes.  Lows again will be crisp tonight and require long sleeves and a light jacket at the bus stop come Wednesday morning.  Most begin tomorrow in the lower 50s and some areas drop into the 40s.

PLANNER TONIGHT PLANNER TOMORROW

The cumulus field develops again tomorrow but likely not as numerous compared to today and the breeze should be lighter too.  Either way it’s still a rather pleasant afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

RPM WEDNESDAY 4PM RPM FRIDAY 8AM NO AUGUST 90s

Indianapolis has had six 90 degree days this year but none this August… a month that typically averages six 90 degrees since 1871.  Long range guidance remains bullish on above normal temperatures this weekend and much above normal this time next week.  Monday is the last day of August and we’ll be close to hitting 90 degrees.  If not it will be the first August without a 90 degree day since 2004… which is the only year on record in Indianapolis without a 90 degree day.

JET STREAM 1 JET STREAM 2 7DAY

We continue to mention isolated storm chances this weekend but confidence remains low on coverage due to uncertainty with position of an expected upper level disturbance.  Definitely don’t cancel any plans this weekend and we’ll keep you posted on changes – Sean Ash

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Aug
25

Cool Start And Cloud Building This Afternoon

Posted By · August 25, 2015 at 10:39 am

It was the coolest start in Indianapolis in over two months as the city’s official weather station at the National Weather Service dropped down to 52 degrees.  That’s more than 10 degrees cooler than average and just 3 degrees shy of tying the record low for the date set in 1887.

MORNING LOWS MORNING LOWS 2

As expected there were several cities in the 40s this morning under the clear sky and light wind.  Morning weather balloon data from both Wilmington, OH and Lincoln, IL show a nearly saturated layer at roughly 6,000 feet.

WILMINGTON LINCOLN VIS 1KM TEMPS

This suggests that the low cloud deck currently over the northern one-third of the state will likely expand farther south to make the partly to mostly cloudy… which is the case at the time of posting in Bunker Hill and Kokomo.

KOKOMO BUNKER HILL RPM 4PM TODAY PLANNER AFTERNOON

Afternoon thermal winds also crank up again today with gusts nearing 25-30mph and sustained westerlies in the 15 to 20mph range.  High temperatures level off in the lower to mid 70s.  We’re still targeting a weekend warm up and possibly near 90 degree warmth next week.  Details on the WTHR midday show and later today on this blog – Sean Ash

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Aug
24

Autumn Air Hanging Around Next Few Days

Posted By · August 24, 2015 at 4:32 pm

Autumn air conditioning in August?  That’s the case today and the next several days as Canadian air claims stake across the Ohio Valley.  Despite a bright sky daytime highs are in the mid-70s… 10 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago and below the average high.  Temperatures are some 10 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago and set the stage for a perfect evening of Indianapolis Indians as the begin their second to last home stand of the season.  Where did the summer go?!

24HR CHANGE TEMPS INDIANS PLANNER EVENING

The stiff breeze relaxes after sunset and with a clear sky allows temperatures quickly to drop overnight.  Lows around Indianapolis will be in the 52 to 55 range, areas away for the city’s urban heat island likely drop into the 40s a bit just before sunrise.  Long sleeves and light jackets needed again for the kids at the bus stop in the morning but sunshine will do its job quickly tomorrow.

TONIGHT LOWS TONIGHT

Tuesday will be a near carbon-copy with ample sun and mild highs in the mid-70s.  You really won’t notice much air mass change until late week and more specifically into the weekend.  Highs climb into the 80s beginning Saturday and may eventually flirt with 90 degrees this time next week.

PLANNER TOMORROW HIGHS TOMORROW

With 7 days left in the month, and meteorological summer, it appears the wet three month stretch will finish in 2nd place for wettest summers on record.  It’s slim pickings for rainfall in long range guidance as of now.  This is due to the current dry air mass in place and an expected transition to upper air ridging that promotes sinking air and predominately dry weather.  Though we’ve mentioned slight to isolated rain and storm chances this weekend… there is very little confidence in precipitation due to limited large scale forcing in the atmosphere.

SUMMER RAINFALL EURO RAIN GFS RAIN JET STREAM

Upper air ridging also promotes warming temperatures and it’s reflected in the mid to upper 80s in the later periods of the 7 day forecast.  It’s possible highs make a run at 90 degrees next week so stay tuned for updates – Sean Ash

JET STREAM 2 7 DAY

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Aug
23

Feeling Like Fall Again This Week

Posted By · August 23, 2015 at 10:10 pm

Noticeably cooler after the passage of another impressive August cold front.  A refreshing west-northwest breeze delivers one more shot of fall-like air that sends overnight lows into the lower and mid-50s toward sunrise.

DEW POINT OHV DEW POINT CHANGE

MUGGY METER LOWS TONIGHT PLANNER TONIGHT

Monday will be bright become breezy during the afternoon with gusts possibly nearing 30mph.  Expect cooler than normal highs in the 75 to 78 degree range with a good deal of blue sky.  Low temperatures will be even cooler Tuesday morning as many areas with from Indy’s urban heat island likely dropping into the 40s.

PLANNER TOMORROW HIGHS TOMORROW LOWS TUESDAY 7DAY

The latest fall-ish air mass lingers over the Ohio Valley for much of the week with the next rain/storm chance not in play until next weekend.  Give the A/Cs a break, keep the windows open and soak up the sunshine – Sean Ash

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Aug
23

A Few Evening Showers Before Fall-Like Air Returns Tonight

Posted By · August 23, 2015 at 4:06 pm

The Muggy Meter nears oppressive levels this afternoon prior to the passage of cold front this evening.  Humid air and the front trigger widely scattered showers and storms.  These will be quick-movers and produce gusty wind at times.

MUGGY METER TEMPS FRONT TEMPS

 
We expect the front to pass across the metro area between 7-8pm and put an end to storm chances.  A wind shift to the northwest with the frontal passage delivers much cooler air for the overnight into Monday morning.  Lows in the city drop into the mid-50s with rural areas nearing 50 degrees for lows tonight.

RPM SUNDAY 7PM RPM SUNDAY 11PM PLANNER EVENING TEMP TREND TONIGHT LOWS TONIGHT

Monday will be bright, breezy and cooler than normal with highs in the mid-70s.  Low temperatures will be even cooler Tuesday morning as many areas with from Indy’s urban heat island likely dropping into the 40s.  The fall-ish air mass lingers over the Ohio Valley for much of the week with the next rain/storm chance not in play until next weekend.  So give the A/Cs a break, keep the windows open and soak up the sunshine – Sean Ash

PLANNER TOMORROW RPM MONDAY 4PM HIGHS TOMORROW LOWS TUESDAY 7DAY

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