It’s a raw day though with temperatures well below normal and wind chills that flirt with the 20s.
We’re still holding some hope the overcast thins a bit before sunset and this will be more likely west and northwest of the Indy metro area. Southern and southeastern Indiana likely remain cloudy even after the departure of precipitation.
Clearing will take place area wide overnight and lows drop into the 20s by sunrise Friday. High temperatures tomorrow will be a good 20 degrees below normal and only reach the mid to upper 30s. Wind coming off of Lake Michigan and colder air aloft supports our thinking that scattered flurries and snow showers develop tomorrow.
High pressure building into the region Friday night will calm the wind and clear the sky… setting the stage for near record lows in the teens Saturday morning. Despite decent sunshine, highs Saturday will also be in the 30s and have it feeling more like early February than late March. Sunday will be warmer, but unfortunately breezy southwesterlies take a bite out of the 50 degree highs.
By Sunday evening showers are possible, it not likely, as a front drops southward into the Great Lakes. Temperatures next week look to return to the 60s and possibly hit 70 Wednesday. But the pattern remains active next week with a several systems passing through the Ohio Valley. Stay tuned for updates and have a great afternoon – Sean Ash
Clouds continue to hang tough in the wake of the early morning rain and storms. Rain amounts ranged from a quarter to nearly three quarters of an inch. This was round one and round two hits in the early morning hours of Thursday.
Another .50″ to locally 1.50″ of rainfall is likely by midday Thursday… with the heaviest amounts targeting central and southern sections of the state. Plan on a wet morning commute tomorrow and possibly some flooded streets.
Before then we should salvage a half-way decent afternoon as clouds slowly break. For now we remain north side of a stalling frontal boundary along the Ohio River… with an impressive 20 degree difference from central Indiana and northern Kentucky.
Temperatures climb to near 60 degrees in Indianapolis, and well into the 60s down state south of a boundary. Farther north, where clouds hold longer, highs may only reach the mid to upper 50s.
Along and south of this boundary will be the focal point of more robust storm development. Some “hailers” have already fired on the Kansas/Oklahoma border and will congeal into another complex of heavy rain and storms this evening. There is a Slight Risk of severe wind/hail in extreme southern Indiana. Though there’s a high likelihood of lightning tonight, we don’t anticipate wind or hail reaching severe levels locally… though 40+mph gusts are possible south of I-70. Check back for any changes to this current thinking.
After a dry evening the latest wet window begins after 11pm and ramps up by 5am. Colder air aloft teams up with the moisture Thursday morning to allow some snow to mix in with the rain. It’s doubtful this will accumulate, but this serves notice of a return to much colder than normal conditions heading into the weekend.
Temperatures drop into the 30s Thursday afternoon and we’ll see a repeat performance for “highs” Friday and Saturday… which is a good 20 degrees below normal. Underneath high pressure Saturday morning will be the coldest of this chilly stretch and temperatures near record low levels. The record low in Indianapolis is 16 set in 1934. At this time we have 18 as a forecast low. Either way expect a frosty cold start to the weekend.
The same high pressure system provides plenty of sunshine Saturday and calm conditions. Clouds and a breeze increase on Sunday to offset warmer highs in the 50s. Have a nice afternoon – Sean Ash
Thus far the southern half of the state continues to deal with chilly showers, while areas north of I-74 have seen some sunshine. But notice that despite the brighter sky up north, it’s being offset by the snow pack from yesterday. Expect afternoon temperatures to struggle into the lower and mid-40s… with many areas up north with snow pack to remain in the 30s. We continue to monitor organized severe storm potential to our west today.
These storms move eastward overnight and bring a Marginal Risk of severe weather locally. Thunder, lightning and locally heavy downpours likely wake many up tonight… as the storms enter the state after 11pm. Marginally severe hail and wind gusts are possible, but more likely much farther west earlier this evening. This marks the beginning of an active 48 hour period we’re set to embark in Central Indiana.
Temperatures rise into the 50s by sunrise and aid in storm development. Wednesday begins cloudy and damp, but finishes much brighter and warmer as highs climb into the 60s. Tomorrow is easily the warmest day of the next seven days, and gets the nod for pick-of-the-week.
A new wave of rain and storms emerges along the Ohio River Wednesday night. Though the best ingredients for severe storms appears to be just south and southwest of the viewing area… gusty wind and lightning are likely heading into Thursday morning. The combination of these two storm events produces widespread 1-2″ rainfall amounts.
Colder air returning Thursday may change the rain to a brief period of snow Thursday afternoon. It’s more of a novelty, but serves notice of the next stretch of well below normal temperatures. Another batch of snow showers accompanies the chilly air Friday, when highs likely never reach 40 degrees. We near record lows Saturday morning and despite a good dose of sunshine, highs Saturday will be nearly 20 degrees below normal.
An area of rain, sleet and snow continues to diminish in Central Indiana, but not before dropping up a few inches in north central sections of the state. Many areas from Monticello-Bunker Hill-Fort Wayne (to name a few) receiving 1″ to nearly 3″ of snowfall… with reports of slick travel up north.
Temperatures in central/northern Indiana are a good 20-25 degrees below normal and significantly colder than this past weekend. It’s all apart of the usual ups and downs of springtime in Indiana.
Precipitation diminishes by 8pm and we expect lows to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s area wide by sunrise. Though much of the precipitation that falls tomorrow will be rain… it’s possible some sleet may mix with rain prior to midday before the atmosphere warms. Rain tomorrow will be scattered until late afternoon and more widespread rain hits overnight.
Don’t be surprised if you hear rumbles of thunder after midnight and predawn tomorrow… but no severe weather is expected. Wednesday is easily the pick of the week. Much of that day will be dry and unseasonably warm near 70 degrees. We’ll need to monitor heavy rain/storm potential Wednesday night into predawn Thursday. As of now it appears these storms will be below severe limits… but gusty wind, lightning, heavy rain are more than fair game. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk just west of Illinois/Indiana state line and close enough to warrant our attention. Stay tuned for updates.
Rainfall appears to be the biggest element the next 72 hours with 1-2″ potential area wide before ending midday Thursday.
Colder air quickly returns in the wake of these storms and will linger into the start of the weekend. Highs Friday struggle to hit 40 degrees with wind chills near 20… along with flurries and snow showers.
Saturday is sunny but well below normal in the lower 40s. Clouds and breezy conditions round out the weekend with highs nearing 50 Sunday. Have a great evening – Sean Ash
A friendly reminder that the statewide Tornado Drill will be Thursday at 10:15am and 7:35pm. Please take time during the day tomorrow to review your safety plan with family and friends. If you don’t have a plan we encourage you or your employer to do so.
Also we plead with you not to rely on tornado sirens as a warning mechanism. This is old technology that’s designed for outdoor warning only… and can only reach a limited area. So you shouldn’t be surprised if you can’t hear them in your home tomorrow. A weather radio or you smart phone is a more viable option to keep you and your family safe. My diatribe is over now.
If you’re like me and suffer from allergies… you’ve likely noticed an increase in sneezing. That’s because our Pollen Index is in the medium to high range of late. Tis the season and we’re in for the long haul.
Otherwise it’s been a decent day mid-March day in Central Indiana with the mix of sun and clouds, albeit cooler than normal with temperatures in the 40s. We’re on borrowed time for dry weather with a wave of moisture creeping toward the region. Very dry air at the surface keeps us rain-free this evening and much of tonight, with mid-level overcast having more bark than bite.
Cloud cover varies tonight as well. Overcast will be more prevalent in the southwestern corner of the state, while drier air keeps the sky clear for the eastern half. This results in a temperature spread of lower 30s near Marion & Muncie, to near 40 under the blanket of clouds .
Sprinkles are possible late tonight into Thursday, but it appears the highest rain chances arrive late afternoon into the evening. Rain showers linger into early Friday before an overall decrease in clouds occurs Friday afternoon. The brighter finish Friday helps boost highs back into the 55 to near 60 degree range as astronomical spring begins at 6:45pm with the vernal equinox.
Temperatures should get into the 60s Saturday for a mild, but breezy start to the weekend. A cold front arrives Saturday evening to drop highs Sunday into the 40s. The see-saw of air masses continue next week too… which is very typical of March. In fact a few flakes of snow may possibly mix with rain showers during a Monday that sees highs in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees.
Have a great evening – Sean Ash
Happy St.Patrick’s Day! As advertised it’s significantly colder, but near normal today compared to the balmy afternoon we enjoyed Monday.
Temperatures are 25 to 30 degrees colder than 24 hours ago and “feels” 30-40 degrees colder when factoring in the stiffer northerly breeze. Thankfully it’s nice and bright and afternoon highs in the lower 50s are normal for this date.
As the wind the calms overnight and clouds clear temperatures nose-dive into the lower to mid 20s Wednesday morning with areas of frost.
A chilly, but bright start Wednesday morning gives way to increasing cloud cover and highs close to 50 degrees. The cloud cover lingers around Thursday with areas of sprinkles and showers making it raw with highs in the 45 to near 50 degree range. Please note that Indiana will conduct a statewide tornado drill Thursday at 10:15am and 7:35pm.
The vernal equinox occurs Friday at 6:45pm and marks the beginning of astronomical spring. It’ll fee like spring to start the weekend with highs near 60 Saturday. But the temperature pendulum quickly swings back to below normal Sunday and much of next week. We anticipate temperature anomalies of 10-15 degrees below normal beginning Sunday. Have a great day – Sean Ash
It is a possibility here in Central Indiana as the Space Weather Prediction Center alerted of a severe geomagnetic storm in progress. According to the SWPC this is due to the interaction of a pair of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) spewing from the sun earlier today and now interacting with the Earth’s atmosphere.
They note that similar events have produced aurora borealis as far south as Alabama, North Carolina and northern California. It’s not a given, but we do expect clear conditions this evening. They’re predicting the storm to diminish as the day ends… so it may be a race against time with our sunset time at 7:54pm. Keep an eye to the north and please let us know if you’re fortunate enough to see this atmospheric treat.
Below is an aurora forecast map produced by the University of Alaska at Fairbanks: