For the 7th straight day much of central Indiana is stuck overcast, though some lucky souls in southwestern parts of the state did see some blue.
But the above scene in Greene County was the exception and not the rule, and scattered flurries remain possible this evening and overnight under the low cloudiness holding firm and expanding.
Saturday: A quick-moving disturbance, currently in the central US, passes overhead tomorrow and triggers flurries and areas of light snow. This also keeps the sky cloudy and prevents temperatures from warming much above 30 degrees. With some clearing possible Saturday evening we’ll need to monitor conditions for patchy freezing fog/drizzle.
Sunday: But the highlight Sunday will be temperatures warming into the upper 30s with prospects of at least partial sunshine. Temperatures continue to warm early next week in advance of the well advertised Christmas Eve Day storm.
It’s been a rather wimpy start to the snow season, and Indianapolis has only recorded a tenth of an inch this month. Computer model guidance continues to keep hopes alive for a White Christmas in central Indiana. But there remains serious questions for snow specifics due to the fact we’re addressing energy that hasn’t come onshore yet.
Early Next Week: Expect highs in the 40s Monday with rain arriving during the afternoon. Rain becomes widespread during a rather soggy, albeit warmer, Tuesday. That’s when temperatures warm into the mid and upper 40s on the eastern side (warmer, southeasterly-southerly wind side) of the expected low pressure system. It will be a complicated evolution of two separate upper pieces of energy merging, or phasing, to create rapid intensification (or deepening) of low pressure. Where this phasing and resultant intensification occurs remains to be determined… and ultimately dictates how quickly we turn cold and snow rates.
Christmas Eve Day Storm Potential: Due to a few days of warming and temperatures around, or possibly above, freezing during some of the snowfall… there could be serious melting without heavy snow rates. This too could also limit snowfall amounts. Again questions to be answered in the coming days. For now snow remains in the forecast for Christmas Eve day and there’s still a chance of White Christmas for some. However strong wind with the intensifying storm may be a bigger a story.
Continue to check back for updates – Sean Ash
Flurries and light snow showers continue this afternoon and may produce a quick coating in heavier bursts. Watch for slick roads on untreated surfaces with temperatures remaining well below freezing. Expect periods of snow with unseasonably cold highs in the mid-20s.
Tonight and Friday: Snow chances remain around this evening before gradually ending overnight. The stubborn low cloudiness hangs tough though and we’re back down into the lower 20s for morning lows. I’m not overly optimistic the overcast breaks tomorrow, but am holding some hope for peeks of sunshine. Highs near freezing on Friday and slightly warmer this weekend.
This Weekend: It appears the system Saturday will be suppressed southward and we’re only expecting slight chances of flurries to begin the weekend. Highs Sunday climb into the upper 30s and even warmer into the 40s Monday and Tuesday.
Monday evening into Tuesday look rather wet in response to a storm system evolving over the eastern part of the country. Long range indicators continue to point toward an intense storm emerging on Christmas Eve… but it’s still much too early for specifics on local impacts.
Early Call On Christmas Forecast: At this point we’re calling for windy conditions Christmas Eve day and temperatures in the mid-30s. Periods of snow are possible, but wind may be the bigger story than accumulation which could be light. If surface temperatures remain above freezing this system might have more of an impact on air travel due to wind shear and not roads. Flurries and/or light snow remain possible Christmas Day but any accumulation would likely have ended by then. Another potential winter system could impact the Ohio Valley the day after Christmas as the overall pattern becomes stormy in the eastern U.S. the 23rd into New Years.
Again… there are more questions than answers at this point. Check back as we will continue to update the chances of a White Christmas – Sean Ash
Central Indiana remains stuck under a thick blanket of overcast and this keeps temperatures locked in the 20s. We’re currently 15-20 degrees colder than 24 hours ago and wind chills in the teens make it “feel” 30 degrees colder than Tuesday.
Flurries continue to fly within the colder air and remain possible into the afternoon. Clouds likely hang tough the next 24 to 36 hours with an approaching upper level disturbance from the southwest. This feature, though weakening when it arrives, will spread some flurries and light snow into the state Thursday. Though light, some grassy accumulations in spots by the evening are a possibility. With sub-freezing temperatures we can’t rule out some slick spots in any heavier bursts that might occur.
Seasonably cold air remains in place Friday and this weekend with another shot of light snow impacting the southern half of the state Saturday. It appears the brunt of this weak system misses a majority of the viewing area, but it’s close enough to warrant the mention of light snow.
Long range indicators show the possibility of a bigger storm to impact the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes the middle of next week. Both the Euro and GFS models show a very deep (strong) area of low pressure over the Great Lakes 7pm Wednesday or Christmas Eve. This ups the ante for wind-whipped snow Christmas Eve and White Christmas hopes in central Indiana next week. While it’s much too early for specifics, the likelihood of some sort of mid-latitude storm continues to increase. Definitely check back for updates as this could potentially have impact on holiday traveling.
Stay tuned and thanks for visiting the blog – Sean Ash
It’s a damp, blustery day across Central Indiana with wind chills in dropping through the 30s.
Clouds, showers and areas of drizzle hang tough heading into the evening. A wind shift the west-northwest delivers much colder air overnight into Wednesday morning.
Expect lows to drop in the mid/upper 20s with some flurries possible by the Wednesday morning commute. Clouds hang tough tomorrow, though there’s some hope for peeks of sun tomorrow afternoon. Highs tomorrow will be seasonably cold in the lower 30s and the chilly air hangs around heading into the weekend.
A quick moving disturbance brings a chance of flurries and light snow Thursday afternoon/evening… and I’m not ruling out a grassy accumulation for some by sunset Thursday. This is not a big system, but perhaps enough to cause slick spots with highs near freezing.
For the month Indianapolis has only had a trace of snowfall and just under 3″ for the season thus far… which is 5″ below this time last year.
We continue to keep close tabs on a weather system arriving to begin the weekend. At the very least we expect a period of light snow Saturday… and possibly enough to accumulate and make for slick travel. There is still considerable uncertainty on the evolution/strength of this feature and exactly where the heaviest snow will occur. So remain on watch from the I-70 corridor to Central Kentucky for potential holiday travel trouble Friday night and during the day Saturday. The rest of the weekend looks quiet and cold with highs near freezing.
Long range indicators suggest a cold set up to arrive by or just after Christmas Day and possibly linger into 2015. The transition to this pattern could carve out a decent mid-latitude storm. Something to monitor heading into the holiday. Have a great day and check back for updates regarding the Saturday snow potential – Sean Ash
We’re wrapping up the warmest day of December in Indianapolis. Highs neared 50 degrees and temperatures will remain nearly 10 degrees above average until Tuesday afternoon.
Cloud cover ensures mild Monday morning lows near 40 degrees. It appears areas of dense fog will increase over Central Indiana too… possibly causing some slower travel times during the early day commute.
Though Monday begins dry, take the umbrella heading out the door with showers increasing in the afternoon. It wouldn’t stun me to hear some thunder late tomorrow with decent lift over the region associated with an upper level low.
Showers remain likely Monday night into predawn Tuesday. Tuesday looks to be a misty day with early day highs in the 45 to near 50 range, and then falling temperatures after the passage of cold front Tuesday afternoon.
This delivers seasonably cold air for mid-week with highs dropping into the lower 30s. Wednesday is our best shot of sunshine before we quickly focus winter weather potential to finish the week.
We continue to monitor next weekend closely with the potential for wintry weather to impact holiday traveling in the Ohio Valley. There remains a high level of uncertainty regarding track, strength and precipitation type. But it should be noted some model solutions indicate accumulation of either snow, sleet and freezing rain between Central Indiana and Southern Kentucky.
Even if we get a glancing blow by this system, the trusted European model hints of a strong coastal storm late Saturday into Sunday. If this verifies it would pose serious air travel problems on a busy holiday travel weekend.
Since the forecast is highly changeable we advise you to check back with us frequently for updates. Have a great week – Sean Ash
Check back for updates as this would impact holiday travel plans – Sean Ash
Despite overcast it’s been the warmest day of December for Indianapolis. Afternoon highs neared 50 degrees and nearly 10 degrees above average.
Cloud cover ensures temperatures stay milder than normal overnight. Monday morning lows near 40 degrees are near the average high for this time of year.
Monday: An increasing wind tomorrow will help mix up the atmosphere and disperse the high levels of ground pollutants that plagued the region this weekend. Monday begins dry but take the umbrella as you head out the door with showers increasing in the afternoon. Expect another milder than normal day tomorrow with highs in the upper 40s to near 50.
Showers remain likely Monday night into predawn Tuesday. Tuesday looks to be a misty day with early day highs in the 45 to near 50 range, and then falling temperatures after the passage of cold front Tuesday afternoon. This delivers seasonably cold air for mid-week with highs dropping into the lower 30s.
We continue to monitor next weekend closely with the potential for a disruptive winter system moving across the Ohio Valley. There remains a high level of uncertainty regarding track, strength and precipitation. But it warrants attention with some model solutions indicating a possible snow accumulation between Central Indiana and Southern Kentucky. The trusted European model has been the most persistent from run-to-run and paints a stormy set up for the northeast next Sunday.
The GFS (American Model) has been more inconsistent and has a warmer solution (farther north) and mixed precipitation for Central Indiana. It’s still very early in the forecasting game… but no doubt something’s brewing heading into next weekend. We’ll update as needed. For now we continue to mention the chance of accumulating snow for Saturday. Remember that timing, track, and strength are all highly changeable between now and next weekend.
Check back for updates as this would impact holiday travel plans – Sean Ash
Caution is advised if you’re traveling into the northeastern corner of Indiana overnight into early Saturday. Reports of a heavy mist that’s freezing on contact and creating slick roads, with numerous accidents in Whitley and Allen counties. A Freezing Fog Advisory is in place up there until 7am and includes Marion, Peru, Hartford City and Fort Wayne.
Though isolated pockets of freezing fog or drizzle are possible farther south… it shouldn’t be a widespread problem. However the stagnant air in place across central Indiana is. The combination of a strong temperature inversion (warm air over cold air), light wind and overcast allows pollutants to build to unhealthy levels this weekend. In my 17 years I can’t recall a Freezing Fog Advisory and Air Quality Action Alert at the same time. The Air Quality Alert includes of the Indianapolis metro area and surrounding counites as well as Munice and Kokomo.
Conditions remain cloudy and stagnant Sunday… though temperatures gradually warm to near 50 degrees Sunday afternoon. Some mist and fog is possible again early Sunday, but much of the day is dry.
Rain becomes likely Monday afternoon as the first of two systems to impact us next week arrives. Colder air returns Wednesday and may set the stage for a potential wintry weather maker across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This may mark the transition to a stormy change to the overall pattern for the second-half of the month. Stay tuned and check back for updates. Have a great weekend – Sean Ash
**** Air Quality Action Days This Weekend Due To Stagnant Air/High Particulates****
Low cloud overcast arrived a few hours earlier than expected for most of the region today. Underneath this blanket of gray it’s chilly with temperatures in the low to middle 30s. Eastern Indiana reaps the reward of geography today with the clouds to arrive last there. That gives way to an increasing low cloud deck tonight.
Central Indiana will be stuck under this cloud blanket for at least the next 48 hours, as warm air (near 50 degrees) at 4-5,000 feet traps colder air (30s) at the surface. This temperature “inversion” prevents very little “mixing” of the atmosphere… breeding low cloudiness, haze, fog and mist at ground level. Air particulates will also gather and reach levels that are unhealthy for groups with sensitive respiratory systems. If you’re in the group you’ll need to minimize outdoor time this weekend.
Tonight: The clouds due serve as insulation overnight and keep temperatures fairly steady in the lower 30s. Areas of low visibility are possible along with some patchy drizzle. The
“blanket” keeps lows near freezing as opposed to near 20 Friday morning under a clear sky.
The Weekend: Afternoon high temperatures struggle into the lower 40s Saturday, hold steady Saturday night and creep to near 50 degrees Sunday afternoon… despite remaining overcast. So it’s a cloudy, cool tailgate for the Colts game Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Rain becomes likely Monday afternoon as the first of two systems to impact us next week arrives. Expect rain to continue Monday night into Tuesday morning. Colder air returns Wednesday and may set the stage for wintry precipitation next weekend.
Long range models continue to indicate signals of winter weather maker in the eastern U.S. heading into next weekend. Though at this time there remains a good deal of uncertainty regarding strength, location, temperature profiles. It’s on our watch and we’ll post updates between now and then and keep you update.
Check back for updates on a highly changeable long range forecast. Have a great weekend – Sean Ash