Light Snow This Morning Followed By Afternoon Sun

Some quick, light snow dusters around this morning cause isolated slick spots the next few hours.  Be advised a few roads may be slick but we’re expecting a brightening sky this afternoon with temperatures creeping into the lower 30s.

TEMPS AFTERNOON PLANNER AFTERNOON

But a brisk wind makes it feel more like the teens this morning and lower to mid 20s this afternoon.  Clear and cold overnight with lows in the mid 20s.

PLANNER NIGHT

Friday continues to look pleasant after the seasonably cold start.  With a decent dose of sun tomorrow we’ll temperatures well into the 40s and readings this weekend near 50 degrees.  This precedes a decent punch of cold air next week.

RPM FRIDAY RPM SATURDAY

JET NEXT WEEK

The transition occurs Monday with 30s and snow.  Bitter conditions arrive Tuesday into Wednesday with sub-zero wind chills and highs in the upper teens/lower 20s.  At this point we don’t envision heavy snow, but certainly enough combined with the bitter cold to cause issues on roads.  Check back for updates – Sean Ash

Chilly Change But Even Colder Air This Time Next Week

Many of you may have slept through the warmest part of the day today.  Temperatures at midnight were just shy of record high levels for this date with Indy at a balmy 60 degrees.  Even this morning readings were respectable for early February in the mid-40s.

MIDNIGHT 7AM 4PM 24HR CHANGE

As expected overcast spread across the state with the passage of a cold front.  Underneath the clouds is colder air with temperatures dropping into the 30s.  Scattered flurries and snow showers are popping right on cue and are in the forecast this evening and early tonight.

EVENING PLANNER RPM 7PM RPM 12AM RPM 7AM

A brisk westerly wind turns northwesterly this evening and remains steady all night long to produce morning wind chills in the mid-teens.  Layers needed tomorrow no doubt with thick cloud cover, a blustery wind and temperatures struggling to hit the freezing mark Thursday.

PLANNER MORNING RPM 12PM RPM 5PM PLANNER AFTERNOON

We’re still expecting the chilly air to modify heading into the weekend.  Highs return to the 40s sunshine Friday and Saturday.  Despite an increase in clouds Sunday… temperatures near 50 degrees to finish the weekend.

PLANNER FRIDAY RPM FRIDAY RPM SATURDAY

No big changes to our thinking of next week becoming much colder than normal.  Monday will be the transition day with highs in the 30s and a wintry mix changing to a period of snow.  We’ll periods of snow and temperature departures of 10-20+ degrees below normal underneath a seasonably impressive cold core low Tuesday and Wednesday.

JET NEXT WEEK

At this time confidence is high on the temperature portion of the long range forecast.  There is low to medium confidence on how much snow we’ll end up with.  Check back for updates as there’s no doubt a decent storm develops out of the pattern next week… it’s just a matter of where – Sean Ash

7day

 

Stormy Evening Ahead With Some Severe Weather

Don’t let the temperatures in the 40s to near 50 degrees this hour fool you.  Record warmth arrives this evening after sunset and after the passage of an impressive warm front.

TEMPS SOUTH TEMPS

This front is evident in southern Indiana where readings are well into the 60s.  Temperatures surge into the 60s this evening after sunset to break daily record highs.

OHV TEMPS TEMP GRAPH

The showers and storms around Central Indiana now are non-severe but produce locally heavy rain and thunder.  The threat for severe storms, primarily in the form of damaging wind, increases by 5pm and peaks before midnight.

STORM THREATS tuesday severe

Severe gusts over 65mph are possible and a few tornadoes can’t be ruled out either… especially west and southwest of Indianapolis where the highest probabilities of severe weather exist.

WIND PROB TOR PROBS 4PM TODAY

Latest hi-res model data shows “modeled” signatures around 6pm that look supercelluar in nature within a zone of maximized wind shear/instability.  Again this would most likely be in western and southwestern Indiana.

6PM TODAY

tuesday severe

GUSTS

It should also be noted that non-storm gusts impact the entire region and likely exceed 40mph at times.  Short-term guidance is also looking onto the idea of heavy banded precipitation dropping 1-2″+ rain amounts in southeastern Indiana.

9PM TODAY RAIN POTENTIAL

While we don’t envision widespread flooding issues, this would certainly cause significant ponding and slow travel.

MIDNIGHT

Rain and strong storms exit the state by 2am and temperatures drop into the mid-40s Wednesday morning.  40s and morning sunshine tomorrow gives way to increasing clouds, mixed showers and temperatures falling into the 30s to finish.

Please download the free Skytrak13 Weather App and visit our website/blog for updates – Sean Ash

Update To Severe Weather Potential Tuesday

The well advertised powerhouse storm continues to take shape in the southwestern U.S. this hour. You can identify the gist of its track by the southwest to northeast swath of winter storm warnings from Nevada to Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

RADAR

Embedded within that area is a region of Blizzard Watches/Warning where the storm reaches its peak intensity in Nebraska and Iowa.  Some areas of the central U.S. see over a foot of snow, but thankfully this occurs after the Iowa caucuses this evening.

WARNINGS

SNOW WIDE

SNOW OHV

HEADLINES

Central Indiana will be on the warmer side of this potent storm. That warmth combined with a highly sheared atmosphere poses a risk of damaging wind and/or brief spin-ups Tuesday evening.

FRONT

SPC OHV

SPC IND

Please note that temperatures out the door tomorrow won’t resemble anything close to producing severe weather.  In fact it will seasonably chilly in the upper 20s and lower 30s… and there’s a possibility of patchy freezing fog early in the day.

STORM THREATS

However, a late surge of warmth pushes temperatures to near record levels after 5pm. We believe the record high of 59 (set in 1911) Tuesday is in serious jeopardy. Either way you’ll notice a balminess to the air late tomorrow.

PLANNER TUESDAY

TUESDAY 5PM

Storm initiation is expected in the 4-5pm hours and individual cells should rapidly congeals into bowing line segments… that up the ante for localized damaging wind gusts.

TUESDAY 7PM

The air Tuesday won’t be very unstable but it doesn’t have to be based on extreme modeled wind shear values. Wind speeds at 5,000 feet are expected to eclipse 70mph and it won’t take much to transfer some of that wind energy to ground level. Even strong areas of showers can aid in producing damaging wind. Don’t be surprised if you hear little thunder tomorrow during the hours of 5pm and 12am Wednesday.

TUESDAY 10PM

WEDNESDAY 12AM

Much like December 23rd of last year we could spin-ups develop along the line segments to enhance the wind potential for localized damage. Please stay weather aware, download the free Skytrak13 Weather App and frequent our website/blog for updates – Sean Ash

FORECAST RAIN

RAIN POTENTIAL

 

Rain This Evening And Severe Wind Potential Late Tuesday

For the first time since 2013 Indianapolis has enjoyed consecutive 60 degree days during January.  Very balmy conditions this evening before a cold front moves across the state before midnight.  This front triggers a line of rain and marks a return to colder air to start the week.

TONIGHT 8PM TODAY MIDNIGHT

Rain mostly ends before midnight and temperatures drop into the mid-30s for the bus stop and commute.  Monday morning clouds give way to increasing sunshine tomorrow afternoon.  Though not as warm as this weekend, daytime highs tomorrow creep into the mid and upper 50s… a good 10 degrees above normal.

PLANNER MORNING MONDAY MORNING MONDAY AFTERNOON PLANNER AFTERNOON TUESDAY EVENING

We continue to bracket the hours between 4pm Tuesday and 12am Wednesday for severe wind potential.  Temperatures begin chilly Tuesday morning in the lower 30s.  A late surge into the 60s and a strong wind field associated with a strengthening storm system puts severe wind in play for Central/Southern Indiana.

SPC SPC 2

A line or lines of rain/storms should develop as a cold front races across the state.  Severe gusts or brief tornadoes will be possible until the front moves east.  It should be noted this low end severe threat could decrease or increase based on the track of the storm system.  Stay weather Tuesday/Tuesday night and expect windy conditions at the very least.

STORM THREAT 7DAY

Much colder air and snow showers wrap around the backside of the storm system Wednesday.  We’ll be seasonably cold for a few days before the air modifies heading into next weekend.

EURO GEFS

Long range ensemble data continues to show a strong signal for a wintry pattern developing in the Ohio Valley around the 9-10th of February.  Other than that we can’t be more specific.  But this does offer some hope for you snow lovers!  Check back for updates please – Sean Ash

Rain And Not Snow… For Now

As expected temperatures climbed into the 40s today despite the overcast and scattered showers.  We’ll be dodging raindrops all evening until a cold front moves across the state after midnight.

HEADLINES 2 EVENING PLANNER TEMPS MIDNIGHT

Much colder air returns by sunrise Tuesday as temperatures settle into the lower 30s.  This is where they’ll stay all day tomorrow due to overcast and a steady northwest wind in the 15 to 30mph.  Flurries are possible for the morning commute, but expect a better chance to see snow showers during afternoon and early evening hours.

TUESDAY 7AM MORNING PLANNER AFTERNOON PLANNER TUESDAY 6PM

Wind chills return to the 10 to 15 degree range Wednesday morning with a shot of seasonably cold air.  Highs in the 20s mid-week climb to near 40 degrees Thursday and Friday.  We continue to call for highs at or above 50 Saturday when we’ll have sunshine and a stiff southwest wind.

WEDNESDAY WIND CHILL 7DAY

 

Temperatures remain above early next week but shower chances return as early as Sunday.  Check back for updates as the pattern looks active next week – Sean Ash

Warmest In Over A Week

40 degrees has never felt so fine!  For the first time since January 15th temperatures climbed above freezing with decent sunshine.

HEADLINES TONIGHT PLANNER

Clouds increase some tonight and combined with a persistent southwest wind helps keep temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than this morning.

RPM MORNING MORNING PLANNER

Expect readings in the mid to upper 20s out the door Monday morning.  We’ll enjoy at least some partial sunshine early tomorrow before cloud increase.  A quick-moving storm system brings wind-whipped rain into Central Indiana mainly after sunset tomorrow as a cold front sweeps across the state.

AFTERNOON PLANNER RPM AFTERNOON RPM EVENING

Colder air returns behind the front Tuesday with flurries, snow showers and highs near freezing.  Seasonably cold air lingers into Wednesday with flurries.  Current modeling suggests will be on the warmer side of several clipper-type systems later in the week.  As a result highs should near 40 degrees Thursday and Friday.

RPM TUESDAY TUESDAY PLANNER 7DAY

We’re still calling for highs near or above 50 degrees next Saturday, but please note it’s accompanied by strong southwesterly wind – Sean Ash

Even Warmer Day Ahead Sunday

How did you enjoy our warmest day in a week?  Highs reached 30 degrees and higher over much of Central Indiana… the warmest readings since last Saturday.  As expected the brisk wind made it feel much cooler though.

HIGHS TODAY PLANNER EVENING RPM SUNDAY MORNING

Expect a mostly clear evening before low clouds increase again overnight into Sunday morning.  We’ll begin tomorrow in the upper teens but with a calmer wind.  Clouds decrease early Sunday and much of the day is filled with sunshine.  The combination of the bright sky and a southwest wind produces even warmer highs in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees!

MORNING PLANNER AFTERNOON PLANNER RPM SUNDAY AFTERNOON RPM MONDAY MORNING

A quick moving weather system brings rain into Central Indiana Monday afternoon but not before highs climb into the 40s.  Rain may change to a brief period of snow early Tuesday morning but we’re not expecting any accumulation at this point.

RPM MONDAY EVENING MONDAY PLANNER

After seasonably cold air the middle of next week, temperatures climb to well above normal levels Friday into next Saturday.  In fact we could see the first 50 degree day since January 14th.  Stay tuned!

7day

Meanwhile the historic blizzard continues to drop heavy snow, coastal flooding and strong wind in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  Snowfall totals are already in the 12-24″ range and likely end up in the 18-30″+ zone for a large chunk of the northeast before this storm exits by noon Sunday.

RADAR BLIZZARD WARNINGS

 

Historic East Coast Blizzard But Warmer Weekend Here

As anticipated we dodged significant impacts from the historic winter storms that’s in progress from Kentucky to the East Coast.  We’ll continue to experience a steady diet of northeasterly wind that keeps wind chills in the single digits and teens.

INDY SNOW

Snowfall totals with this storm are already impressive with a band of 10″+ snow across central and southern Kentucky.  Totals in this band essentially doubled what Indianapolis has had since the beginning of the meteorological winter on December 1st.

KENTUCKY SNOW SNOW DC

Significant travel impacts expected east and southeast where Blizzard Warnings are up from the DC area to New York City.  Snow totals over 24″ seem rather likely in DC with 12″-18″+ totals in Philly to NYC.  This will be crippling and excessive wind causes serious beach erosion, coastal flooding and halts air travel.  It’s best to sit this one out until it moves off-shore late weekend.

BLIZZARD WARNING RPM SATURDAY MORNING RPM SATURDAY AFTERNOON RPM SUNDAY 12PM

Thick overcast hangs tough this evening but has more bark than bite.  Though some light lake effect flurries or light snow showers remain possible until eventually become more northerly and we lose the fetch of Lake Erie.

PLANNER MORNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON

The brisk wind here eases Saturday afternoon and we’ll see temperatures nearing 30 degrees tomorrow.  It will take some patience, but highs Sunday near 40 degrees toward sunset.  Our chance at precipitation arrives Monday afternoon in the form of rain and not snow.  But the rain changes to snow Monday night into Tuesday morning.  Be safe this evening – Sean Ash

PLANNER AFTERNOON SUNDAY AFTERNOON 7DAY

 

Central Indiana Dodges Heavy Snow Bullet

Another seasonably cold January day in the books with highs in the mid to upper 20s.  We continue to monitor the development of what will become a historic winter storm for the Mid-Atlantic states.

HEADLINES TONIGHT MORNING PLANNER MONDAY MORNING AFTERNOON PLANNER FRIDAY AFTERNON

Central Indiana dodges the heavy snow bullet from this storm, but cities as far north as Bloomington, Columbus, and Greensburg may see some snow Friday evening.  1-3″ is possible in the aforementioned cities but confidence is low due to an expected sharp north-to-south snow gradient.

SNOW DMA SNOW KENTUCKY

Chances of snow increase exponentially traveling toward the Ohio River where Winter Storm Warnings are in effect.  Just 5-15 miles will separate flurries from back-breaking snow amounts.  Travel is definitely not advised tomorrow and Saturday south of the Ohio River and toward the Mid-Atlantic where Blizzard Warnings are in effect for the D.C. area into New York City.

SNOW EAST COAST WARNINGS WARNINGS 2 NE SNOW

This storm likely creates a ripple air travel effect for Indianapolis International.  In fact as of Thursday evening American Airlines has alread canceled flights into Dulles, Reagan, Baltimore and other northeast airports tomorrow.

7DAY

Please check with your air carrier prior to departure.  We’ll also get a blustery wind undercutting overcast tomorrow and Saturday morning.  Otherwise most areas remain precip-free until Monday evening when rain showers ramp up.  Have a good evening – Sean Ash