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Mar
02

Slick Start Tuesday To Snow Potential Wednesday

Posted By · March 2, 2015 at 4:32 pm

Buckle up for a wild weather ride the next 48 to 72 hours Central Indiana.  All is quiet this evening with an increase in clouds expected as our next weather system approaches from the west.  All of the viewing area is under a Winter Weather Advisory that begins at 3am and runs until midday Tuesday.

ADVISORY HEADLINES

An area of sleet and freezing rain expands eastward late tonight into the Tuesday morning commute.  It may not be heavy precipitation, but it will be effective falling onto sub-freezing surfaces like sidewalks and roadways.  This will lead to slick travel for several hours in the morning with temperatures not anticipated to climb above freezing until around midday.

PLANNER TONIGHT RPM 12AM TUESDAY RPM 6AM TUESDAY RPM 12PM TUESDAY

HEADLINES 2

Rising temperatures and locally heavy rainfall increases the risk for flooding Tuesday evening… though it’s uncertain at this point where the heaviest rain-banding will set up tomorrow.  It should be noted that underneath the heavier bands of rain rainfall amounts of .25″ to .75″ are possible.  Rainfall on the heavy snow pack and frozen ground could lead to excessive runoff.

PLANNER TOMORROW RPM 10PM TUESDAY RPM 10AM WEDNESDAY

We’re closely monitoring snow potential Wednesday as colder air returns and teams up with abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.  At this juncture it’s a bit uncertain where the heaviest snow axis develops.  But it appears somewhere between I-70 and the Ohio River could be the bulls eye… as various model outputs show heavy (6″+) snowfall in this region.  We’ll refine this forecast tomorrow and don’t be surprised if the Winter Storm Watches in southern Indiana/northern Kentucky expand farther north to include more of Central Indiana.

RPM 1PM WEDNESDAY 7DAY

Near record cold temperatures arrive after Wednesday, with lows nearing zero to sub-zero Thursday and Friday mornings.  Though bitterly cold… both days feature decent sunshine and quiet conditions compared to the beginning of the week.  We’re going to keep the weekend dry for now but may need to add light precipitation chances.  Stay tuned for updates on a highly changeable forecast for Wednesday – Sean Ash

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Mar
02

Three Year Anniversary Of Henryville, IN Tornado

Posted By · March 2, 2015 at 12:51 pm

This afternoon marks the three year anniversary of Indiana’s last killer tornado.  On the afternoon of March 2nd, 2012 at approximately 2:50pm EST, a tornado touched down in the southern Indiana town of Fredicksburg.  This vicious twister would strengthen into nearly a half-mile wide EF4 tornado… with peak wind speeds estimated at 175mph.

HENRYVILLE MAP HENRYVILLE

Its east-northeastward path would take it through the towns of New Pekin and Henryville, where sadly it claimed the lives of 11 Hoosiers.  This tornado was on the ground for nearly 50 miles and crossed the Ohio River into northern Kentucky where EF1-EF2 damage occurred.

HENRYVILLE CLOSE TRACK HENRYVILLE 2

Today we remember the lost souls and all of those impacted by the events of of March 2nd, 2012.

Here is a link to the other facts and images of the Henryville, IN tornado from the National Weather Service in Louisville, KY.

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Mar
01

Snowstorm Departs But Eyeing New System For Tuesday

Posted By · March 1, 2015 at 7:05 pm

Central Indiana and Indianapolis bring in the start of meteorological spring with its snowiest March 1st on record.  Nearly 6″ feel at the National Weather Service in Indianapolis since midnight and a storm total of 7.9″.  This marks the snowiest March “day” since 2000.

HEADLINES SNOW REPORTS

Impressive snow amounts indeed all over Central Indiana… ranging from 10″ to Frankfort, 9″ Monrovia, nearly 8″ in Muncie/Carmel/Castelon and up to 5-“6″ in Mexico and Monticello.

SNOW REPORTS 2 PLANNER THIS EVENING RPM 7AM MONDAY

A light freezing drizzle lingers in the southern counties of the viewing area this evening.  Elsewhere expect clouds to hang tough and temperatures to slowly cool into the lower 20s.  Depending on how much clearing occurs tonight, if any, dictates how cold lows will be Monday morning.  We’re banking on partial clearing and lows in the lower teens.  However, if overcast hangs on… areas of freezing drizzle and lows in the 20s can be expected.  Either way slick roads are very possible tonight into Monday morning.

PLANNER MONDAY RPM 4PM MONDAY RPM 7PM MONDAY

Monday is quiet and but we’re already eyeing a new weather threat Tuesday morning, when freezing rain could potentially make it slick for the commute.  From freezing rain to flooding potential Tuesday evening with areas of heavy rain (possibly thunder) and snow melt.

RPM 5AM TUESDAY RPM 8AM TUESDAY RPM 5PM TUESDAY HEADLINES 2

Some model guidance suggests accumulating snow is a possibility as cold air returns to the state Wednesday.  But there is high uncertainty on whether or not this will come to fruition.  There is higher confidence on new record low temperatures Thursday and Friday before a weekend warm up.

7DAY

Stay safe if you’re traveling this evening – Sean Ash

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The meteorological start of spring begins with a bang.  At 2pm snowfall storm totals were in the 5″ to 8″+ range throughout Central Indiana.  The National Weather Service in Indianapolis relayed a 7.8″ storm total with 5.8″ since midnight.  This marks the city’s snowiest March 1st on record, its snowiest “day” since February 4th, 2014 (6.8″ and snowiest March day since 3-11-2000 (8.1″).

SNOW REPORTS HEADLINES TEMPS

Another burst of snow is in progress and will drop 1-2″ within heavier pockets along the I-70/74 corridors.  This will be quick hitter and occurs while temperatures are closer to freezing.  This will help salt and plowing to be more effective.  This burst departs by 8pm and then we’ll focus on roads refreezing overnight as temperatures drop into the lower and middle teens.

RPM 4PM TODAY RPM 11PM TODAY RPM 7AM MONDAY RPM 4PM MONDAY

Monday is quiet but another system quickly arrives by sunrise Tuesday and brings a threat of ice, heavy rain and snow accumulations.  Latest guidance comes in colder with this feature and we’ll need to monitor closely for travel, ice and flooding impacts.  An updated 7 day forecast coming shortly – Sean Ash

RPM 4AM TUESDAY RPM 1PM TUESDAY

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Feb
24

Snow And More Record To Come This Week

Posted By · February 24, 2015 at 4:36 pm

Central Indiana had one of its coldest mornings of the winter. Record lows happened all across the state from -6 in Indianapolis to -18 in Columbus.

MORNING LOWS HEADLINES

TEMPS

Sunshine proved to be deceiving again with afternoon temperatures in the lower to middle 20s. Unfortunately it never felt that warm due to blustery southwest wind that’s gusting up to 25-35mph. Snow bursts remain possible this evening and overnight with the arrival of our latest Arctic front.

TEMP GRAPH

Temperatures near single digits Wednesday morning with wind chills near zero.  Not as harsh as the past few days, but certainly significantly below normal for late February.

PLANNER TOMORROW RPM 5PM WEDNESDAY RPM 8AM THURSDAY

Highs tomorrow return to the mid-20s with morning sun giving way to increase in cloud cover.

A clipper system brings a return to snow, albeit light, Wednesday night into the Thursday morning commute. A fluffy 1 to 2 inches is possible and it comes at a bad time. With temperatures in the lower teens tomorrow night we’re anticipating a slick commute Thursday morning. We’ll update the next 24 hours.

RPM 5PM THURSDAY SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY 7AM PLANNER THURSDAY

More record temperatures may fall later this week. The record cold “high” Thursday (11/1963) and Friday (17/1934)… and the record low Friday (-7/1963) and Saturday (2/1993) are all in jeopardy. This continues the theme of our frigid February… which will be one of the coldest in Central Indiana since the late 1970s.

RECORDS FEBRUARY INDY 7DAY

Long range guidance today comes in with a colder solution in regards to the weekend system we’re following. This would up the ante for a wintry mix and/or snow to bring in March on Sunday. Stay tuned for updates – Sean Ash

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Feb
23

Record Lows Possible Tonight

Posted By · February 23, 2015 at 4:51 pm

Sunshine was certainly deceiving today in Central Indiana with afternoon highs between 20 and 25 degrees below normal for late February.  The clouds and steadier wind that saved the region from record lows last night will not be around this evening.

TEMPS RPM 8PM MONDAY FORECAST TONIGHT

As a result temperatures should quickly plummet after sunset and many locations will be in single digits by 8pm.

Due to 10+ degree temperature bust we had last night (and this afternoon) we’re being conservative forecast lows tonight.  Though frigid… the numbers on the map are below are being “modeled” significantly colder by recent hi-resolution output.  Please note changes are possible by the 11pm news and Angela Buchman will adjust accordingly.

LOWS TONIGHT WIND CHILL 6AM TUESDAY

Either way tonight and Tuesday morning are bitter.  Since temperatures are already 10 to 15 colder than 24 hours ago, it appears the record low in Indianapolis (-2 / 1990) stands a decent chance of falling tonight.  We have a forecast low of -3 for the city with wind chills tomorrow morning back in the -10 to -20 range.  Not a pleasant start at the bus stop or walking into work.

PLANNER TOMORRO RPM 5PM TUESDAY

Afternoon highs tomorrow shoot into the mid and upper 20s courtesy of a blustery southwest wind that gusts to nearly 25-30mph.  Morning sunshine gives way to clouds with the possibility of flurries and snow showers with an Arctic front by sunset.

RPM 12AM WEDNESDAY RPM 7AM WEDNESDAY JET STREAM WEDNESDAY JET STREAM THURSDAY

This front reinforces the already colder than normal conditions and paves the way for what may end being Indianapolis’ coldest February on record since 1979.  This month likely ends in the Top 5 coldest Februaries on record and may surpass February of 2007 for 3rd place.

COLD FEBRUARY 7DAY

The week finishes with near record cold “highs” Thursday and Friday.  The weekend begins bitter but finishes warmer, and wetter with a wintry mix/cold rain likely Sunday to begin March.  Stay tuned for updates – Sean Ash

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Feb
22

Record Lows And Bitter Wind Chills Tonight

Posted By · February 22, 2015 at 5:52 pm

Temperatures Sunday peaked in the upper 20s and that’s as warm as we’ll be until Tuesday afternoon.  Temperatures tonight likely shatter record low levels for Monday’s date.  Our Indianapolis forecast low is -6 and the record is -1 set in 1889.

HEADLINES WIND CHILL ADVISORY WIND CHILL 6AM

The northerly wind coming off Lake Michigan occasionally produces scattered flurries and snow showers.  A few slick spots are likely in any heavier showers that develop.

A Wind Chill Advisory begins at midnight for all of Central Indiana and we anticipate wind chills Monday morning in the -10 to -20 range.  “Highs” tomorrow will struggle to hit double digits and will be some 30 degrees below normals for late February.

TONIGHT LOWS TONIGHT PLANNER TOMORROW

“Highs” tomorrow will struggle to hit double digits and will be some 30 degrees below normals for late February.

RPM 12PM MONDAY RPM 4PM MONDAY LOWS TUESDAY MORNING

The frigid finish tomorrow sets the stage for another record-breaking night.  Lows Tuesday morning shatter records with forecast lows in the -5 to locally -20 range.  Highs Tuesday return to the 20s but comes with a blustery southwest wind too.

PLANNER TUESDAY 7DAY

Another Arctic front passes the region Wednesday to deliver near record temperatures Thursday and Friday.  Long range guidance suggests a warmer set up next weekend and possibly a very wet Sunday.  Stay tuned for updates this week – Sean Ash

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Feb
21

Snowfall Update: Heaviest In Indianapolis Since Last February

Posted By · February 21, 2015 at 5:28 am

Many of you are waking up to at least 4″ of snowfall this morning, with several mores to go.  Officially the National Weather Office is up to 4.1″… marking the city’s heaviest snowfall since Valentine’s Day of 2014 (5.5″).

SNOW FALL FORECAST

Based on radar trends, and what’s already fallen, we’ve upped the snowfall forecast in southern Indiana to reflect to lack of sleet up to this point.  Bottom line is that a big chunk of the viewing area will receive between 5″ and 7″… with locally heavier amounts very likely.

RPM 8AM SATURDAY RPM 12PM SATURDAY

Snowfall rates should taper area wide by 8am with a secondary surge of snow anticipated late morning into early afternoon.  By then temperatures should be in the upper 20s and lower 30s and salt will be much more effective.  However this morning roadways are snow covered and very slick.  Travel will be challenging until snow rates ease and the sun comes up.

RPM 5PM SATURDAY 7DAY

Snowfall ends by 5pm this afternoon and the focus shifts to more record-breaking cold next week.  Kelly Greene and I are on air from 6am to 10am this morning, with cut-ins during the Today Show from 7am-8am.  Be safe – Sean Ash

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