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Sep
21

Fantastic First Week Of Autumn

Posted By · September 21, 2014 at 5:16 pm

35 to 45mph gusts have taken some of the luster out of a pleasant Sunday in central Indiana.  Gradient and thermal wind gusts remain formidable at this hour but will weaken as the sun sets and an area of low pressure in the Great Lakes moves east.  Afternoon temperatures are running 5 to 15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago due to the passage of a cold front overnight.

WIND GUSTS WIND GUSTS 2 VIS SATE

Afternoon temperatures are running 5 to 15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago due to the passage of a cold front overnight.  A secondary cold front is crossing south of I-70 now and knocks temperatures into the upper 50s and low 60s this evening.  There’s just enough upper level lift to support a very narrow band of quick-moving sprinkles and showers north of Indy early this evening.  They are diving east-southeast rapidly but most should weaken before arriving in Indy and points south.

SATRAD PLANNER EVENING

Tonight:  The northwesterly breeze weakens overnight, but remains in the 5 to 15mph range.  This wind should be enough to prevent much dense fog from developing.  Kids will need the jackets tomorrow morning with lows in the mid to lower 40s.  But expect a good dose of sunshine into midday with a slow climb to 60 by 12pm.

LOWS PLANNER MONDAY

Monday:  Cool Canadian high pressure delivers decent sunshine Monday, but scattered clouds and a decent breeze build during the afternoon.  High temperatures will be near 10 degrees below average in the mid to upper 60s.  The Autumnal Equinox arrives Monday evening at 10:29pm EDT and it will feel like it for a few days.

HIGHS RPM MONDAY RPM TUESDAY RPM WEDNESDAY

The rest of the week is highlighted by a string of sunshine courtesy of a blocking high pressure system aloft.  This will pancake across the Ohio Valley and deliver comfortable nights, mild afternoons and a mostly clear sky.  As noted in earlier forecasts, rainfall the next ten days will be rather slim due to this pattern developing.  We’re expecting above normal temperatures to finish the week and the month of September.  This warm trend may very well carry over into the beginning of October.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

RPM WEDNESDAY 2 RAIN POTENTIAL 7DAY

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Sep
19

Sunny Start And Finish To Weekend With Storm Chance Saturday Night

Posted By · September 19, 2014 at 4:38 pm

Sunny and afternoon temperatures in the 70s can be defined as weather perfection for some.  That’s the case in central Indiana today with a pleasant southeast breeze to boot.

NOW

This paves the way for the best weather during Operation Football of the season.  Kickoff temperatures will be near 70 and expect a slow cool down to near 60 during the fourth quarter.

OPFB

Tonight:  Another clear and comfortable night ahead as low temperatures eventually drop into the middle 50s.

RPM RPM 2

Saturday:  We’re still on target for the warmest day of the week tomorrow.  A southwest wind and sunshine push highs into the 80s during the afternoon.  Daylight hours Saturday will be dry but shower and storm chances ramp up toward or just after sunset.

PLANNER SATURDAY SPC 2

Though there is a Slight Risk of severe weather for the far northwestern corner of the state, we believe any storms locally will weaken after sunset.  Lightning and local downpours will be the main storm threats Saturday night.  At the time of this posting we’re bracketing the hours of 7pm to 7am as the rain/storm window in central Indiana.

RPM 3 RPM 4

Sunday:  Showers are likely by midnight tomorrow night and during the predawn hours of Sunday.  Latest guidance continues to suggest that much of Sunday will be dry as a northwest wind develops.

PLANNER SUNDAY

After some early morning showers and clouds, expect a decrease in cloud cover during the afternoon with cooler highs in low to  mid 70s.

RPM 5 RPM 6 RPM 7 7DAY

That will be our one and only chance of rain over the next 10 days.  After a brief cool down Monday and Tuesday, temperatures warm to more seasonal levels during the second half of next week.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

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Sep
18

Sunny Streak To Finish This Week

Posted By · September 18, 2014 at 4:09 pm

Our beautiful fall-like weather continues and today we’re dealing with less cloud cover than the past few days.  The brighter sky leads to warmer temperatures and this is the first official 70 degree day in Indianapolis since last Thursday.  Highs will range from 70 to 75 and mark the advertised warm up heading into the weekend.

NOW PLANNER EVENING

Tonight:  If you have outdoor evening plans the weather remains spectacular.  Expect a slow cool down into the 60s by 8pm.  Keep the windows open tonight with comfortable lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s.  Though patchy fog is possible in river valleys and low-lying areas, we don’t anticipate major problems Friday morning.

LOWS PLANNER FRIDAY

Friday:  I’m not a doctor but with sunshine and mid to upper 70s expected Friday, you have my permission to make it a three day weekend!  We’ve got all the ingredients in place for the best night of Operation Football weather this season Friday evening.  Expect kickoff temperatures in the lower 70s with a bright sky.  You might want to pack a light jacket as fourth quarter temperatures drop into the 40s.

HIGHS RPM OPERATION FOOTBALL

This Weekend:  We’re still targeting Saturday as our warmest day this week and quite possibly for some time.  Under a bright sky and with a southwest wind highs will easily top 80 degrees.  Daylight hours should be rain-free, though we may need to add a chance for the northern viewing area if a front gets closer than anticipated.  Saturday night and early Sunday there is a chance of showers and storms along the cold front.  It should be noted that latest model guidance shows lower rain potential and a quicker front departure.

PLANNER SATURDAY

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PLANNER SUNDAY

Providing this verifies, Sunday afternoon may be mostly dry.  This looks to be our only chance of rain for nearly 10 days.  Canadian high pressure promptly spreads in across the Ohio Valley after this front and blankets the region for much of next week… resulting in several days of sunshine and comfortable conditions.

RAIN POTENTIAL

RPM 6

Though cooler, model guidance isn’t as bullish on much below normal air as prior runs.  So I’ve relaxed the chill and pushed highs to more seasonal levels in the 70s next week.  Regardless it should be fantastic fall weather to bring in autumn!

7DAY

Have a great evening – Sean Ash

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Sep
17

Slow Warming Rest Of The Week

Posted By · September 17, 2014 at 1:18 pm

At this hour we’re seeing a mix of clouds and hazy sunshine with cool temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s.  Highs will range from 65 to near 70 and mark another day below normal.

NOW

Today:  There’s a very slight chance that a few sprinkles may fall across the southwestern corner of the state the next few hours as a storm complex dives southeastward.  The most likely impact from this feature will be cloud debris over the southern half of Indiana.

RADAR RPM PLANNER WEDNESDAY PLANNER EVENING

Tonight:  You’ll need a light jacket if you’re outside this evening for soccer practice or mowing the grass as temperatures quickly drop into the 50s by 10pm.  Seasonably chilly lows on the way tonight as readings fall back into the 40s by Thursday morning.  Areas of locally dense fog are very possible under a clear sky and light wind.

LOWS TONIGHT PLANNER THURSDAY HIGHS THURSDAY

Thursday and Friday feature abundant sunshine with milder highs in the 70s.  It’s looking like a picture perfect evening for Operation Football on Friday evening… with kickoff temperatures in the lower 70s and only falling into the mid 60s during the 4th quarter.

RPM 2 RPM 3 OPERATION FOOTBALL

Saturday is still the warmest day of the week.  With sunshine and a breezy southwest wind, highs should easily climb into the 80s.  Some new computer model guidance suggests the northern third of the state could see some rain and/or storms.  At this point we’re opting to keep the forecast dry and believe the better rain chances will be along and north of the Michiana borde

RPM 4 RAIN POTENTIAL

An approaching cold front puts scattered showers and storms in play for Sunday.  There is still some uncertainty on how quickly this front departs central Indiana… which dictates whether or not Sunday will be soggy or finish up dry.  Stay tuned.  But if this front slow enough to interact with residual moisture from Tropical Depression Odile we could see rain totals nearing an inch by Monday morning.

FALL JETSTREAM

Another batch of unseasonably cool air builds in behind this front and arrives just in time for the start of autumn Monday evening.  Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees cooler than normal early next week and continues a trend of what’s been a much cooler than normal September.  Average monthly temperatures are nearly 3 degrees cooler than normal and this will likely drop based on early guidance for next week.

7DAY

Autumn arrives in style as temperatures tumble into the upper 30s and lower 40s for Tuesday morning.  Canadian high pressure should deliver another prolonged stretch of early autumn conditions next week.  Have a great day and thanks for visiting the blog – Sean Ash
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Sep
16

Continues To Feel Like Fall

Posted By · September 16, 2014 at 3:11 pm

The astronomical start to autumn is still six days away but central Indiana has had a jump start on the season for nearly a week.  Today is no exception with low clouds and unseasonably cool temperatures in the 60s.

NOW

Tonight:  Areas north and northwest of Indianapolis have a much brighter sky compared to mostly overcast in the southern and southeastern portion of the state.  Toward and after sunset clouds should break as the lower atmosphere stabilizes.  Get ready for another seasonably chilly night as low temperatures drop into the 40s Wednesday morning.

PLANNER EVENING LOWS TONIGHT

Wednesday:  Some morning sunshine will again help trigger another scattered to broken deck of cumulus clouds.  At times the sky will be mostly cloudy and at times a fair amount of blue… so we’ll call it variably cloudy.  Temperatures slowly rise into the 60s but highs will be some 10 degrees cooler than normal.

BUS STOP HIGHS WEDNESDAY

High pressure building into Ohio Valley late this week sets the stage for mostly sunny conditions Thursday into Saturday.  The brighter sky leads to milder afternoons with the heat peaking Saturday in the lower 80s.  Keep in mind morning low temperatures remain rather chilly in the 40s but the warm ups will be quicker due to less cloud cover.

RPM RPM 2 RPM 3

We typically don’t look to the East Pacific/Baja region for our next rain-maker, but the remnants of Tropical Storm Odile very well could be just that.  Flooding and Flash Flooding rains for Arizona, New Mexico and Southern Plains appear likely.  This moisture will be creep into the Ohio Valley and perhaps interact with an approaching front on Sunday.  Depending on the timing of this front, rain could be widespread Sunday… though it should be noted that a faster frontal passage would result in less rain.  Both outcomes are on the table at this point.

TROPICAL RAIN POTENTIAL

The autumnal equinox is 10:29pm Monday, and long range guidance suggests another decent push of cool air early next week behind the passage of the front Sunday.  If this verifies we’re staring down a few days in the 60s again.  Stay tuned.

7DAY

Have a great evening – Sean Ash

 

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Sep
15

Update On Rain: Becoming Wet For Colts Tailgating

Posted By · September 15, 2014 at 1:17 pm

The dry weather window in Indianapolis is closing rapidly with a steady shield of rain and embedded thunder arriving by 3pm.  It’s been wet a stormy morning in Fowler, Lafayette, Kokomo up to Fort Wayne and this axis shifts east-southeastward to impact Monday Night Football festivities.

RPM

FutureTrak13 shows a damp stretch leading up to kickoff, likely resulting in the roof being closed tonight.  While severe weather is highly unlikely, downpours and some lightning may force tailgaters indoors at times.

RPM 2 RPM 3 RPM 4

We’re advising to pack an umbrella for the walk into and out of Lucas Oil Stadium with lingering showers around at midnight.

RPM 5 PLANNER MONDAY COLTS

Showers end from west to east shortly after midnight with cool lows ranging from the mid-40s to mid-50s.  Tuesday begins with mostly cloudy conditions but peeks of blue sky can be expected during the afternoon and pleasant highs in the 60s.

LOWS TONIGHT PLANNER TUESDAY HIGHS TUESDAY

Another prolonged stretch of glorious fall weather lasts from tomorrow into the first part of the weekend.  Expect several nights in the 40s, comfortable afternoons in the 70s with heat peaking Saturday around 80 degrees.  Saturday night into Sunday will be our next chance of rain and storms.  This too will be followed by another nice stretch of days.  Have a great afternoon and plan to work around rain.

7DAY

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Sep
11

Autumn Air Arrives And Is Here To Stay

Posted By · September 11, 2014 at 4:33 pm

What a difference a day makes.  From a humid, stormy Wednesday to cloudy and much cooler today.

TEMPS 24 HOUR CHANGE

Underneath overcast and with a persistent north-northwesterly wind temperatures are 15 to nearly 20 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago.

Tonight: there will be partial clearing and temperatures slowly drop into the lower 50s by sunrise Friday… with some 40s possible where clouds clear enough.

EVENING PLANNER LOWS TONIGHT

Tomorrow:  Light jackets are a good idea for kids at the bus stop.  Though a period of sun is possible in the morning, tomorrow will be similar to today with a healthy amount of low cloud overcast.  Highs Friday will again be locked into the mid and upper 60s.

FRIDAY PLANNER HIGHS FRIDAY

Jacket weather is in store for Operation Football with cool conditions in the lower 60s for kickoff and 50s by the end of the fourth quarter.  The pesky cloud cover holds tough tomorrow night into Saturday morning, and upper disturbance swinging through the Great Lakes may trigger some light showers early Saturday.

OPERATION FOOTBALL RPM RPM 2 RPM 3 RPM 4

Clouds clear Saturday evening and pave the way for the coldest night with lows in the mid to low 40s.  After a chilly start, Sunday looks spectacular with blue sky and highs near 70.

LOWS SUNDAY

A brief shot of showers Monday evening and night before high pressure and stable conditions quickly return.  It’s too early to tell if this will be enough to impact tailgating for the Colts home opener against the Eagles, but we’re watching closely.

COLTS

Quiet, calm weather quickly returns Tuesday and looks to last well into the end of the week.

7DAY

Have a great evening – Sean Ash

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Sep
10

Flash Flood Threat Increasing

Posted By · September 10, 2014 at 8:28 pm

Though a Tornado Watch remains in play for the eastern half of Indiana, the chances of any severe weather or brief tornado spin ups is slim.  Unfortunately, and as expected, “training” storms combined with a highly moist atmosphere are dropping torrential rainfall for parts of central Indiana.

RADAR

The last hour or so the tracks have been placed across the northern half of the metro area, and many locations within this zone will likely receive 2-3″+ rain totals before midnight.  A Flash Flood Warning is in effect until midnight for this region and additional warnings and or advisories may be needed.

WARNING RADAR 2

More heavy storms are lining up along a cold front in eastern Illinois and these will impact southern Indiana.  A Flash Flood Watch remains in place until 2am and 1-3″ rain totals are possible for cities farther south that haven’t received much today.

FLOOD WATCH

The threat for heavy rain or locally strong storms will end northwest to southeast between 9pm and midnight.  Locally strong wind gusts remain possible in southern and southeastern Indiana where there’s been little rain today.

RPM RPM 3 RPM 2 PLANNER

By the time you wake up Thursday morning our focus quickly shifts to the much advertised fall chill.  Temperatures Thursday will struggle into the upper 60s with a fair amount of clouds that slowly diminish later in the day.

THURSDAY MORNING PLANNER THURSDAY

The coolest air will arrive this weekend and push lows into the 40s at times and highs remain in the 60s.

7DAY

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