A Winter Storm Warning continues south of I-70 until 7am. Steady light to occasionally moderate snow will continue falling over southern Indiana the next few hours, before dropping south of the Ohio River by 7am. Expect slick roads overnight even where it’s stopped snowing many hours ago. This is due to temperatures well below freezing and lows drop into the single digits Monday morning.
A steady north-northeast wind will push wind chills into the -10 to -20 range. Temperatures Monday will be a good 20 to 25 below normal, with highs struggling to hit 20 degrees in many backyards.
We’ll drop back down into the single digits Tuesday morning and stay unseasonably cold until a gradual climb into the 40s later this week.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out snowfall totals fell well short of our “initial” forecast of 6-10″ for the I-70 corridor. Adjustments were made in subsequent forecasts to take into consideration a more southern solution in storm track and colder/drier air farther south too. But even the last call this morning of 3-6″ fell short of the mark. This essentially proved to be a 2″ to 4″ forecast with an “official” total of 2.4″ at the National Weather Service in Indianapolis… a record this date.
That pushes the “snow year” total to 54.7″ and just 3.6″ shy of breaking the record of 1981-82.
No major storms are in the 7 day forecast, but there is a chance of a wintry mix returning Sunday.
Have a great week – Sean Ash
Radar at 3pm shows the anticipated second wave of moisture moving into Central Indiana… with a primary focus on areas along and south of the I-70 corridor. Despite the radar image below showing mostly “blue”, there have been reports of sleet and freezing rain in Morgan County.
Radar analysis suggests this slug of moisture will be most felt south of Indianapolis, as dry air appears to be winning the war on this second disturbance.
Though I’ve got Indianapolis in a 1-3″ potential range this evening, it’s conceivable most accumulation will occur south of the city in somewhat better moisture fields.
The bigger story overnight may prove to be the refreezing of slushy/wet roads as temperatures drop into the single digits by 7am Monday morning. I’d definitely plan on extra time in the morning and potential school delays too.
Under cloud cover and a persistent northeast wind, daytime highs Monday will struggle to hit 20 degrees in most backyards throughout Central Indiana.
Lastly let me admit the obvious that this storm didn’t produce as initial forecast. Though downward adjustments in snow potential were made this morning… this forecast ultimately busted due to higher impact of drier air from a stronger push from Arctic high pressure. It’s frustrating, it happens and I’m just as upset as some of you.
Ultimately it is a forecast and after some 53 inches this winter it’s impossible to get everyone spot on. We try our best but it comes with the territory.
The next few days will be unseasonably cold before air modifies and highs return to the 40s later in the week. Safe travels this evening and thanks for visiting the blog – Sean Ash
Deceiving sun over Central Indiana, with temperatures a good 20 to 30 degrees below normal. Highs will range from the mid-teens up north to the lower 20s south.
Another Arctic front arrives Thursday morning to reinforce the already bitter cold air in place. Temperatures will hold nearly steady tonight, but an increasing wind pushes “feels like” temperatures well below zero Thursday morning. The passage of the Arctic front tomorrow morning will knock temperatures into the single digits even after sunrise…before leveling off in the lower teens Thursday afternoon.
Strong sustained wind of 25-35mph can be expected with gusts up to 50+mph with the pre-dawn frontal passage… along with the possibility of snow squalls. The quick coating of snow could make it messy for some morning commuters.
Adding insult to injury will be brutal wind chills of -10 to -25 for the bus stop and ride into work. Definitely wake up with Nicole Misencik Thursday morning for the latest as you may need to add some extra time to your ride.
Medium range computer model guidance continues to support our theory of a high impact Winter Storm this weekend. Confidence is high there will be a prolonged precipitation event with significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice across the Ohio Valley including Central Indiana. However track and exact amounts of any given precip-type remain uncertain. Timing for now looks to be between Saturday night and well into Monday.
Be aware that this will impact traveling across the region during that time and we’re advising you to check back for updates to the highly changeable forecast this weekend.
Long range guidance suggests record breaking cold is possible next week. Admittedly my forecast high and low temperatures next Tuesday and Wednesday may be too “warm.” Winter is not going away anytime soon. Have a great afternoon – Sean Ash
The unrelenting winter continues to put up impressively cold numbers across Central Indiana. With an average temperature of 24.5° winter 2013-14 currently ties for 10th coldest on record. Tonight continues the chilly theme of the season with Wind Chill Advisories issued for a good chunk of the viewing area and lows that will be closer to records than averages.
Wind chills will be in the -5 to -15 range for early Wednesday, as lows near zero in Indianapolis and sub-zero north of I-70.
It should also be noted that light snow will break along an Arctic front later this evening. Although light, this snow will effective to make roads slick south of I-70… with greatest impact likely along and south of a Bloomington-Columbus line and points south toward the Ohio River. Add some extra time if you’re traveling south in the morning.
A bright, bitter day is on tap Wednesday. Wind chills likely remain sub-zero into midday with highs only in the mid-upper teens (average is 44).
The steady diet of Arctic fronts continues Thursday, with frontal passage expected between 4am-7am. Notice below how temperatures drop Thursday midday, despite a bright sky. A potently cold air mass for sure considering it’s late February.
Friday morning remains cold but quiet, though some snow is possible Friday night into Saturday. A bigger storm continues to show up in medium range models, which have persistently distributed nearly an inch of liquid precipitation for Sunday into Monday. It’s too early to throw out snowfall and ice numbers, but if 1″ of liquid verifies significant snow/ice amounts would be likely in Central Indiana.
Below are the the latest runs of the Euro (upper plot of image below) and GFS (lower plot of image below) models. The Euro is colder (mainly snow) and the GFS is warmer (more ice), but it’s not uncommon to have this type of separation this far out. It’s still five days, so significant changes are possible… if not likely.
Check back for updates and modifications to the track and forecast. This could be a high impact event for travel by late weekend.
If you’re searching for warmth you’re not going to find here in the next 7 to 10 days. March comes in on a cold note as temps drop back into the single digits (at least) next Tuesday morning. But I do offer some glimmer of hope for the middle of the month. Long range ensemble data and teleconnections suggest a “potential” pattern shift to near or above normal conditions.
(Image below courtesy of WX Bell Analytics)
Let’s revisit this in a week or so to see how accurate this 16 day ensemble median temperature plot is. Have hope… and patience!
The month of February will finish how it started… colder than normal. Under a clear sky tonight lows will drop into the low/middle teens and a good 10-15 degrees below normal.
Sunshine will be deceiving in the morning with wind chills in the single digits to near zero. The bright sky gives way to increasing clouds in the afternoon as quick-moving upper disturbance rides the cold northwest flow aloft into Central Indiana.
Another area of light to moderate snow will impact areas along and north of I-70. Nothing too heavy, but heavier bursts could drop 2-3″ in some locations by Tuesday morning…when roads may get slick for some.
The image below is the latest FutureTrak13 model output which is subject to change both in amounts and location. Check back Monday afternoon for updates. The bigger story this week will be temperatures more indicative of mid-January and not late February.
In fact “highs” this week will be near or below the average low! Winter 2013-14 continues to unrelenting.
We’re keeping a close eye on next Sunday for accumulating snow potential across the Ohio Valley. Check back for updates and the pattern beyond the next 7 days look cold too. Have a great night and even better week – Sean Ash
What a difference 24 hours makes. From the balmy mid-50s of Saturday, to a return of the winter chill today. Temperatures at this hour are good 20-25 degrees colder than this time Saturday.A few light radar returns continue with a slow moving line of rain/snow showers in southern Indiana. This area of precipitation is heading southeast and clouds are starting to clear due to the departure an upper level disturbance.
Without a blanket of cloud insulation tonight, expect lows to drop into the lower teens Monday morning… though we’re expecting a bright start tomorrow.
Clouds increase Monday afternoon in advance of our latest upper level disturbance… a feature that brings a new wave of light snow to Central Indiana Monday night and pre-dawn Tuesday. Tough to pinpoint the exact location, but underneath this wave of light snow another inch will be possible.
After a cloudy start Tuesday finishes brighter, but the focus will be on unseasonably cold lows Wednesday morning.
Many locations will likely drop below zero for another time this winter Wednesday morning. The frigid start will be followed by “highs” in the upper teens… which is colder than the average “low” for this time of year which is 27.
We’re eyeing next Sunday for a potential accumulating snow. Both the Euro and GFS models (pictured side-by-side below) show a wave of moisture moving across the I-70 corridor. Not pictured, but offering more support of a snow next weekend are ensemble data. It’s a long way out, but something we’ll be keeping tabs on and providing updates in the week ahead.
Have a great evening and thanks for reading the blog – Sean Ash
Squall-line continues to progress east at nearly 50mph and New Castle, Richmond, Rushville, Greensburg can expect damaging wind gusts. Earlier this evening there was a 71mph gust at Lucas Oil Stadium, 75mph gust at the Marion Airport in Grant County, and numerous 60-70mph reports along the squall-line.
It should be noted that strong, gusty wind will continue overnight into Friday with gusts occasionally exceeding 45mph due to the tight pressure gradient across the Great Lakes.
Areas east of Indianapolis get ready for wind gusts over 60mph, with a max gust of 71mph registered at Lucas Oil Stadium. The entire is line has a Severe Thunderstorm Warning and we’ve heard reports of tractor trailers flipped over along I-74 Crawfordsville and I-65 near Frankfort.
Once the line exits your area the threat of severe will be over.