Rain is slowly subsiding but the damage is done. Many streets remain flooded around the Indy metro area… especially across northeastern, eastern and southern Marion County where 3-5″ rain amounts were common. Please use caution if traveling overnight as DPW wasn’t able to barricade all water covered roads.
Some incredible pictures from what was the epicenter of flash flooding during this evening. WTHR Facebook viewers submitted pictures of kayaking and canoeing down streets and for many areas this is the second bout of flash flooding in the past three weeks.
It’s not a shock, but it is officially the wettest month on record for Indianapolis now with the National Weather Service (official gauge for the city on the SW side) eclipsed the 13″ monthly rainfall mark. This marks the wettest month in 140 years and pushes summer 2015 into 2nd wettest territory too.
Areas of dense fog are likely for the morning commute and then will be followed by another uncomfortable day in regards to tropical humidity.
Hot, humid conditions continue the next few days with peak heat indices expected in the 100-108 range Wednesday afternoon. Additional heavy storms dot the landscape Monday afternoon and Tuesday… with severe weather potential late Wednesday along an approaching cold front.
Less humid air returns Thursday with a good dose of sunshine too! Be safe tonight – Sean Ash
Sticky heat and oppressive humidity, along with scattered heavy storms, remain headliners in the forecast the next few days. While many backyards stay dry this evening into Monday morning…anything on radar will likely produced tropical rain rates in the 1-2″+ per hour zone.
For the moment the Indianapolis Motor Speedway is in the middle of a storm sandwich with heavy rain in southeastern Indiana and another batch nearing Lafayette. Both will stay away from the Brickyard 400 and it will likely take something to develop around/over the track for any weather related delays. Heat and humidity are big issue for both fans and drivers though.
Air conditioners work overtime tonight with lows in the 70s. Areas of haze and fog will be dense enough to cause some issues for the Monday morning commute…especially in places that do see heavy rain.
Highs Monday near 90 degrees and the heat index stays in the 90s. The worst is yet to come with highs Tuesday and Wednesday in the 90s and the heat index in the 100-108 range. A round of strong to severe storms late Wednesday precedes less humid air for the end of the week.
Highs Thursday and Friday drop into the mid-80s with a good deal of sunshine. With five days to go, July 2015 ranks 2nd wettest July on record and 4th wettest month on record for Indianapolis. We’ll closely monitor the “official” rain gauge of the city at the NWS office near the airport. Have a great evening – Sean Ash
What a fantastic day in Central Indiana! If you like low humidity, sunshine and mild temperatures then you’ll agree the best weather in the country is in our backyards. The center of high pressure remains along the Indiana/Ohio border and is the driver in keeping us dry until the weekend when it breaks down and heads east.
Dew points in the 40s and 50s during late July are a real treat and why it feels so comfortable outside. The Muggy Meter remains comfortable until Friday night/Saturday morning. Until then just enjoy!
We’ll again enjoy a spectacular evening and overnight as lows drop into the 50s and lower 60s. Thursday is nearly a carbon-copy of today but highs will climb more into the 80s tomorrow and Friday.
Humidity creeps up heading into the weekend and combined with upper disturbances brings a return to storm chances. As of now most of Saturday should be dry and seasonably warm into the upper 80s. Storms are possible Saturday night and into Brickyard 400 Sunday. Timing and coverage details will be ironed-out as we get closer to the weekend. Check back for updates as the forecast will likely change between now and then.
Long range indicators show summer heat and humidity holding strong next week. Have a great day – Sean Ash
The first part of that question seems to be a resounding yes based on latest data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Centers for Environmental Protection (NCEP). How it will impact Indiana this upcoming winter is a bit more challenging being this far out. There’s no denying that the equatorial waters of the Eastern Pacific are warming as the sea surface temperature anomaly map below shows (click on image to animate)….. which is the definition of an El Nino.
In fact climate experts say the developing El Nino could potentially be one of the stronger on modern record if it continues on its current pace. El Ninos usually develop during summer months and peak in intensity during the winter causing global fluctuations in weather patterns.
Long-lead seasonal “modeled” sea surface anomalies suggest this El Nino will rival if not exceed the winters of 1982-83 and 1997-98… the latter which is the strongest El Nino on record. It should be noted that other global teleconnections can also play a significant role in the eventual outcome of winter too. Going forward we’ll need to see what phases these various teleconnections will be in across the west/north/east Pacific Ocean and north Atlantic Ocean… as they’re all pieces to the puzzle.
But if indeed El Nino is the dominant driver, and it is a significantly strong event, then climatologically speaking the odds favor a warmer/drier December through February locally.
The strong El Ninos of 1982-83 & 1997-98 are both in the Top 10 least snowiest winters on record in Indianapolis and produced under 10″ combined snowfall. 1997-98 is the 7th warmest winter on record for the city and 1982-83 is the 12th warmest out of 143 winters on record.
Each El Nino is not the same and there is no guarantee it will continue to strengthen. For now we wait and monitor.
It’s been long overdue after Indianapolis’ wettest month in 65 years and wettest summer since 1979.
We’re finally enjoying some much needed dry time and a break from tropical humidity. Dew points this afternoon are 10 to 15 degrees lower than 24 hours ago and the Muggy Meter will remain comfortable from now until Friday afternoon.
This sets the stage for a perfect night at Victory Field and Central Indiana’s coolest night since June 28th. Open the windows and air out the house as lows drop into the 50s Wednesday morning. With sunshine and mild highs near 80, we’re calling Wednesday our pick of the week… though a strong argument could be made for Thursday too.
High pressure lingers around the Ohio Valley for several days and holds off rain/storm chances until Saturday night. Based on latest data sets we’ve added scattered storm chances to Brickyard 400 Sunday… but timing and coverage remain highly uncertain. Still plenty of time to iron-out specifics between now and then. Enjoy what will be a great evening – Sean Ash
So far clouds have more bark than bite. But the remnants of a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) moving into the state, a cold front approaching from the northwest, and an upper disturbance arriving from Iowa trigger scattered to numerous showers and storms this evening and tonight… with the greatest focus of precipitation perhaps along and south of I-74/70 corridors. Not every backyard will get wet but locally heavy downpours and gusty wind up to 50mph occur in stronger storms.
Any storms that develop will diminish and/or sink southward by sunrise Tuesday. The passage of the aforementioned cold front tomorrow morning ushers in a breeze of change. After a muggy start early Tuesday expect less humid conditions to ride into the state on a gusty northwest wind. Highs will range from the upper 70s north, low 80s central and mid 80s south.
Clouds clearing late tomorrow, a calming wind and high pressure moving in allows lows to drop into the 50s Wednesday as the Muggy Meter drops below the line 60 degree dewpoint line of discomfort. The drier air also sets the stage for several mostly sunny days… which is just what the doctor ordered in one of the wettest summers on record.
Sunshine and highs near 80 degrees make Wednesday our pick of the week. Though one could make a strong argument for Thursday, Friday or Saturday. A stalled boundary to our south and west is the focal area for storms and we’re keeping the local forecast dry until Saturday evening.
Latest medium range computer model guidance suggests storms Saturday night should depart prior to the start of the Brickyard 400… though this is highly subject to change. However we do feel confident temperatures warm back into the upper 80s to near 90 this weekend. Please check back for updates and have a safe evening – Sean Ash
Spotty showers and locally heavy downpours remain in play the next few hours with areas of fog developing by sunrise Monday.
Lows tonight will be around 70 degrees and highs Monday return to the mid-80s. Daytime heating, tropical air and approaching upper disturbance brings a renewed round of scattered downpours and storms.
The southern half of Indiana remains under a Low Risk (15% probability of large hail and/or damaging wind, 2-5% tornado chance) for severe storms… primarily Monday afternoon and evening.
Rain and storm chances exit the forecast and region after Tuesday morning as we stare down a multi-day dry spell that carries into the start of next weekend. We typically don’t get too excited about 4-5 consecutive dry days, but in the midst of record-breaking July and summer rainfall it’s noteworthy.
This July is Indianapolis’ 4th wettest month on record with nearly two weeks to go, and summer 2015 (June-August) is the city’s 4th wettest summer on record with a month and half to go! Thankfully medium range guidance shows our driest week of the summer.
High pressure settling across the Ohio Valley provides pleasant morning lows in the 50s and lower 60s followed by mild afternoons Wednesday to Saturday. We do have isolated storm chances returning Brickyard 400 Sunday… but much can and will change in the forecast between now and then. Please check back for updates – Sean Ash
Cloud cover to the rescue today! Limited sunshine earlier in the day saved Central Indiana from organized severe weather. Though the highest risk for severe storms is displaced east and south, late day sunshine and a mesolow in the Indy metro area triggers pulse storms the next few hours.
Any storms that develop will be slow-movers and capable of tropical rainfall rates of 1-2″ per hour due to a highly saturated air mass. Localized flooding remains high due to these conditions, though it should be noted that a lot of backyards may not see a drop of rain this afternoon. But those underneath anything that develops gets dumped on.
After highs have recovered into the mid-80s and the Muggy Meter remains oppressive with dew points well into the 70s. The arrival of upper disturbance Monday brings a renewed risk of severe storms…especially during the afternoon and along/south of I-70.
Rain and storm chances exit the forecast and region after Monday night as we stare down a multi-day dry spell carries into the start of next weekend. We typically don’t get too excited about four consecutive dry days, but in the midst of record-breaking July and summer rainfall it’s noteworthy.
A high pressure system settles into the Ohio Valley and delivers several days of mostly sunny conditions and comparatively comfortable humidity. This is just what the doctor ordered for water-logged Indiana!
After mid-week mild weather we’ll see temperatures warm to near 90 degrees next weekend with isolated storm chances next Sunday. Have a great afternoon and check back for updates – Sean Ash