The advertised Wind Machine continues to spin northward into Canada. A tight pressure gradient around this formidable fall low pressure system cranks out very impressive wind gusts. There have been many cities experiencing gusts in excess of 50mph. A Wind Advisory (gusts 45-50mph) runs until 7pm for much of Central Indiana with a High Wind Warning (gusts to near 60mph) for the northeast corner of the state.
No doubt the wind is from a colder direction as temperatures are nearly 20 degrees colder than just 12 hours ago. We finish the day in the 30s with wind chills in the lower to mid 20s. Flurries and snow showers remain possible as the cold air wraps around and into the track of the low pressure system.
Though the wind won’t be as strong Tuesday it will remain breezy. With low temperatures in the 20s, and wind remaining in the 10-15 range, wind chills fall into the teens for the bus stop tomorrow morning. There may be some peeks of sunshine, but overall low clouds will be more prevalent in the sky. Temperatures struggle to return to the mid-30s for highs Tuesday.
Quiet travel weather can be expected tomorrow, but we continue to monitor the progression of a potential Alberta Clipper system. The timeline for this will be late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. This clipper doesn’t have much moisture to work with, but temperature profiles will allow for a swath of light accumulation… dusting to an inch. At this point the track is very uncertain and we only anticipate minor travel issues with this system.
It’s a different story if you or someone you know are traveling to the east coast… or have family from there trying to get back to Indiana. All the makings are in place for a coastal storm that will have a high impact on air and road travel by midday Wednesday. Its track of heavy snow/rain and wind will include D.C., Baltimore, Philly, New York and Boston. Major airport delays or cancellations seem likely given the modeled strength of the storm and volume of traffic the day before Thanksgiving.
We’re advising that you check closely with your air carrier if your plans include any of those hubs or a trip east for the holiday. Long range trends continue to point toward another warm up for the weekend. European model mid/upper flow shows a west-t0-east regime (zonal) which typically results in the transport of milder, Pacific air eastward. A strengthening south-southwest wind Saturday and Sunday delivers highs likely in the 50s and possibly 60s for some. Stay tuned for updates on the potential weekend warmth that looks to carry over into the first week of December.
The trade off with the warmth will be a mainly cloudy sky and rising chance of showers Saturday evening into Sunday. Unlike last weekend it doesn’t rain amounts will be as robust. Have a great evening – Sean Ash
UPDATE 10pm: It’s now the wettest day in six months for Indianapolis. With two hours left in the day and nearly .25″ shy of 2″, Indianapolis may have its first 2″ calendar rainfall since December of last year. A 141 year old daily rainfall record has been shattered in Indianapolis and it continues to rain heavily in the city. The National Weather Service office is nearing an inch and a half which marks the city’s wettest day since July 23rd. 2″ amounts seem very likely for many locations.
At this hour the heaviest axis of rain continues to fall from Terre Haute-Lebanon-Cicero-Marion. This zone has the highest chance of 2″ reports by 7am.
Despite the soaking rain, temperatures remain steady in the lower to mid 50s. The most widespread heavy rain occurs from now until midnight, with rain becoming more scattered in nature heading into the morning commute. Street flooding is very possible as well as lowland flooding with this deluge coming on the heels of melted snowpack.
You’ll notice the strong wind when you step outside Monday morning. We’re anticipating sustained wind speeds of 30mph with gusts routinely topping 40mph. High wind gusts of 50-55mph are very possible tomorrow.
The wind eventually comes from a cold direction and temperatures drop into the 30s by as early as midday. We’ll finish about 20 degrees colder than we started. A Wind Advisory begins at 7am and lasts until 7pm tomorrow evening. Use caution while driving.
A weak upper level feature brings clouds and possibly some light snow Wednesday evening. We’re still forecasting flurries and light snow Thanksgiving Day, but this will most likely be scattered and primarily from lake effect.
Bigger travel problems loom for the eastern seaboard and Appalachians with a potential coastal storm developing. Heavy snow and rain may impact many of the big hubs on the east coast Wednesday into Friday. Be prepared and check back for updates.
The rain is here and it will steadily fall the next 12 hours. Intensity will vary from light to heavy with a few rumbles of thunder possible overnight. Relatively balmy temperatures in the 50s hang around all night despite the soakers.
Rain amounts between now and early Monday will be widespread of 1-2″. Street flooding is possible the next 24 hours with the ground rather saturated. We’ll wake to temperatures in the 50s with gusty showers in what will be an overall windy Monday.
The center of storm system near Memphis will continue to intensify as it approaches the Ohio Valley. The tightening pressure gradient around this feature will cause wind speeds to ramp up significantly tomorrow. As a result a Wind Advisory begins at 7am tomorrow and last until 7pm Monday. Expect sustained wind of 30mph with gusts of 40-50+mph by early evening.
The passage of a front late morning brings a return of colder air as temperatures fall into the 30s in early afternoon. Rain may change to snow as the cold air wraps around an intensifying storm system in the Great Lakes… but very little, if any, accumulation is expected. Wind chills drop into the teens Monday evening and breezy conditions slowly relax tomorrow night.
Some flurries and spotty showers are possible Tuesday within the chilly air and as upper level energy passes overhead. Heading into Wednesday there will be a chance of snow toward sunset if you’re traveling for the Thanksgiving holiday. Light snow remains possible in Central Indiana Thursday with perhaps a much bigger storm impacting the east coast Thursday and Friday. Check back for updates as this feature could have air travel ramifications.
Have a good evening – Sean Ash
Nice to see some sunshine today in Central Indiana. But it only minimally offsets the cold, blustery conditions outside. While some areas are bright this afternoon others are seeing flurries and light snow showers. Most of the wintry precipitation this hour is north of Indianapolis and likely diminishes after sunset when the atmosphere stabilizes.
Everyone is dealing with wind chills in the teens to near 20 degrees and expect these numbers to drop a bit toward sunset.
Not as windy tonight, but that allows our minimal heating to radiate away from the ground leading to colder lows in the lower teens and single digits Friday morning. We expect a rather bright day tomorrow and not nearly as breezy as the past two days. Despite highs only near freezing, Friday relatively will be a much more pleasant day.
We’re not deviating from our thoughts that Friday night into Saturday morning will deliver sleet and freezing rain to Central Indiana. Though light… there may be enough to cause slick spots on untreated roadways before sunrise Saturday. Check back for updates as we’ll likely be temperature watching early in the day. Temperatures eventually warm into the mid-40s Saturday afternoon with areas of rain, drizzle and locally dense fog.
A bigger storm is set to embark on the Ohio Valley delivering periods of heavy rain, possibly thunder and likely high wind. Rain amounts by Monday morning will near an inch and make for sloppy conditions all across the region. Wind gusts by Sunday evening may near or eclipse 50mph… even without thunderstorms, due to the tightening pressure gradient around the center of the storm in Central Illinois.
We’ll be on the warm side (east) of this storm Sunday and within an airmass that produces highs in the mid to upper 50s. We don’t anticipate severe weather. However, if we were to get into some sunshine and highs climb into the 60s that might be a game-changer. Current thinking is a solid cloud deck, rain and relatively cool ground prevents this from happening. A colder wind returns Monday afternoon and delivers our latest surge of unseasonably cold conditions Monday night into Thanksgiving weekend.
Speaking of Thanksgiving… there are major model differences in the pattern 7 days out. The typically reliable European model has been bullish the past several runs of producing a snow system (with varying degrees of intensity) late next week. Its American counterpart (GFS) shows more troughiness in the upper levels. That would be a cold pattern, with some snow, but nothing major for the Ohio Valley but would be a concern for east coast travel.
Either way it appears something’s brewing next week. It’s a matter of when, where and how strong. It’s much too early for any more specifics than that. Stay tuned and have a great evening – Sean Ash
Our latest bout of Arctic air will team up with an upper disturbance to trigger snow showers and locally heavy squalls this afternoon and into tonight. In the Live Doppler 13 Radar image below you can see the banded nature of the snow which is indicative of squalls.
These features commonly produce quick accumulations, lowered visibility, and slick roads with localized areas. Use caution if traveling as they’ll be cutting across north-south highways and can almost seem to come out of nowhere. Blowing snow will also across create tricky travel and keep wind chills in the single digits during daylight hours.
Of course this is a stark contrast to the events happening in the state at this time a year ago. November 17, 2013 produced the second largest tornado outbreak on record for Indiana with a statewide totals of 30 twisters. The image below shows a snow covered Lebanon, IN today compared to the tornado that impacted the city a year ago at this time. Click here for a link to a slideshow of images from that day.
Below are the tracks/intensity (image 1) for Central Indiana and radar rotational signatures (image 2) courtesy of the National Weather Service in Indianapolis. They offer an detailed analysis of the outbreak here: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ind/?n=nov172013outbreak
Snow showers continue tonight and produce local accumulations up to an inch. Near record lows in the single digits will make for icy driving tonight into Tuesday morning as salt will be less effecting. Sub-zero wind chills will be widespread Tuesday morning and “highs” tomorrow will struggle to hit 20 degrees… which will be near record low levels.
According to the National Weather Service in Indianapolis, the chill tomorrow will be the coldest early autumn air to hit Central Indiana in some 55 years… rivaling equal cold years of 1951 and 1976.
Flurries and snow showers continue tomorrow and Wednesday again with localized accumulation. Highs near the freezing mark Wednesday but a blustery wind makes it feel colder.
We’re still expecting temperatures near normal this weekend but the tradeoff of the warm up will be foggy and soggy conditions. A wintry mix Saturday changes to a cold rain. Highs in the 50s Sunday melts the snow but leads to fog and damp conditions. Don’t be stunned to hear some thunder Sunday or Monday as a strong storm system moves across the Ohio Valley. Be careful driving the next 24 hours – Sean Ash
Much of the accumulating snow is over for Central Indiana. However moderate, to at times heavy, snow continues south of I-70 toward the Ohio River. This was the snowiest November day in Indianapolis since 1997. Officially 2.5″ fell at the National Weather Service in Indianapolis.
Below is a list provided by NWS Indianapolis of over snow reports. Please note some of the reports are old and an updated list will be issued Monday morning.
Accumulation overnight will primarily be along and south of a Vincennes-Bloomington-Rushville-Richmond line. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for the Cincinnati metro area and counties just north of the Ohio River… where 5″ is very possible.
Snow may return to Indianapolis but at the time of this posting it’s too early to tell if the northern fringe of the snow swath makes it that far north. With or without additional snowfall, roads will be slick as temperatures drop into the middle 20s.
There’s growing concern for heavy snow showers and squalls Monday afternoon and evening that will blossom within approaching Arctic air. These showers and a strengthening northwest wind will make for tricky driving conditions Monday evening. Temperatures fall into the teens by 7pm and wind chills in the single digits.
Tuesday morning will be flat out bitter. Sub-zero wind chills and near record lows make for a nasty day with highs struggling to hit 20… that’s 15 below the average low! Flurries and snow showers are likely Tuesday and Wednesday. Next weekend looks warmer, but wet and foggy. Be safe this morning and Chuck Lofton and Nicole Misencik will update the forecast.
Snow continues to accumulate rapidly and will be moderate to heavy at times in the Indianapolis between now and midnight. Snow reports are coming into the Skytrak13 Weather Center and the highest thus far have been northwest of Indianapolis. This will eventually change as the axis of snow drifts southeastward overnight.
Amounts At Time Of Posting (8:30pm)
Radar at 8:30pm shows heavier banding setting up around the Indy metro area. Increasing snowfall rates and temperatures dropping into the mid-20s overnight sets up the entire region for a slick morning commute.
The Winter Weather Advisory was expanded northward to include Lafayette and Monticello. Many areas will be in the 3-4″ range and we still anticipate areas along/south of I-70 and I-74 to near 5″ in some locations. Remember it’s always possible to have less or more than the forecast snow zones. But the generally idea is lightest amounts in northwest Indiana and heaviest to be along/just north of the Ohio River.
Much of the accumulation for Indianapolis occurs prior to 5am. So expect slick driving conditions heading home from the Colts game and for the morning commute. Schools delays and cancellations are very likely Monday morning.
Snow will continue for the southeastern half of the state early Monday morning. This is the region of greatest potential hit the high side of the 3-5″ forecast. Snow will shut down from northwest to southeast and be out of the state by midday.
As the snow exits our focus quickly shifts to looming surge of Arctic air. The fresh snowpack will breed near record lows Tuesday morning and sub-zero wind chills.
Tuesday and Wednesday feature single digit low temperatures and the peak of this bout of cold. The chill eases heading into the weekend but it’s looking like a soggy and foggy weekend. Updates to come. Stay safe this evening – Sean Ash
Snow is falling in parts of Central Indiana and will continue to expand cover the area by 6-7pm. Temperatures at this hour are above freezing and likely keep roadways wet until sunset. Road conditions will get worse overnight as temperatures drop below freezing and snow intensity increases.
A Winter Weather Advisory begins at 5pm for most of the WTHR viewing area and lasts until 9am Monday. Winter Storm Warnings are up for southern-southeastern Indiana where snow amounts may approach 5″.
If you or someone you know are going to the Colts game this evening expect to drive home in a snowy scene. There may already be a few inches of snow on the ground and we’re still expecting around 3″ in the city before accumulation ends early Monday morning.
The idea of the snow potential map below is a gradient of lightest to heaviest from northwest to southeast. Please keep in mind the zones are not fences and there is fluctuation expected either north or south. As with any snow event, there will always be places within a particular zone that see more or less than forecast. 3″ seems like a reasonable number for Indianapolis which would be the heaviest early season snowfall since November 13th, 1997 when 3.3″ fell. Areas south of I-70/74 have the greatest potential to reach and/or exceed 4″ with a zone of 5″ potential just north of the Ohio River. I’ll post updates later as needed.
A new surge of Arctic air blows into town Monday afternoon with falling temperatures into the lower 20s by 5pm. That’s when wind chills drop into the single digits and mark a prolonged period of wind chills below 10 degrees. Sub-zero wind chills are likely Tuesday morning and record cold temperatures are possible.
The record low Tuesday morning (5 / 1880) and record cold high temperature (20/1880) will be rivaled due to the fresh snow pack and Arctic air. Next weekend appears to be warmer but also much wetter. For now it appears a wintry mix arrives Saturday then slowly changes to a cold rain. Have a safe evening and check back for updates – Sean Ash