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Nov
20

Windy, Wet Weekend Begins With Some Freezing Rain

Posted By · November 20, 2014 at 3:34 pm

Nice to see some sunshine today in Central Indiana.  But it only minimally offsets the cold, blustery conditions outside.  While some areas are bright this afternoon others are seeing flurries and light snow showers.  Most of the wintry precipitation this hour is north of Indianapolis and likely diminishes after sunset when the atmosphere stabilizes.

TEMPS

Everyone is dealing with wind chills in the teens to near 20 degrees and expect these numbers to drop a bit toward sunset.

WIND CHILL PLANNER EVENING LOWS TONIGHT

Not as windy tonight, but that allows our minimal heating to radiate away from the ground leading to colder lows in the lower teens and single digits Friday morning.  We expect a rather bright day tomorrow and not nearly as breezy as the past two days.  Despite highs only near freezing, Friday relatively will be a much more pleasant day.

PLANNER FRIDAY RPM RPM 2

We’re not deviating from our thoughts that Friday night into Saturday morning will deliver sleet and freezing rain to Central Indiana.  Though light… there may be enough to cause slick spots on untreated roadways before sunrise Saturday.  Check back for updates as we’ll likely be temperature watching early in the day.  Temperatures eventually warm into the mid-40s Saturday afternoon with areas of rain, drizzle and locally dense fog.

RPM 3 RPM 4 RPM 5 RPM 6 RPM 7

RPM 8

A bigger storm is set to embark on the Ohio Valley delivering periods of heavy rain, possibly thunder and likely high wind.  Rain amounts by Monday morning will near an inch and make for sloppy conditions all across the region.  Wind gusts by Sunday evening may near or eclipse 50mph… even without thunderstorms, due to the tightening pressure gradient around the center of the storm in Central Illinois.

RPM 9 EURO TEMPS

We’ll be on the warm side (east) of this storm Sunday and within an airmass that produces highs in the mid to upper 50s.  We don’t anticipate severe weather.  However, if we were to get into some sunshine and highs climb into the 60s that might be a game-changer.  Current thinking is a solid cloud deck, rain and relatively cool ground prevents this from happening.    A colder wind returns Monday afternoon and delivers our latest surge of unseasonably cold conditions Monday night into Thanksgiving weekend.

EURO TEMPS 2 EURO TEMPS 3 EURO TEMPS 4

Speaking of Thanksgiving… there are major model differences in the pattern 7 days out.  The typically reliable European model has been bullish the past several runs of producing a snow system (with varying degrees of intensity) late next week.  Its American counterpart (GFS) shows more troughiness in the upper levels.  That would be a cold pattern, with some snow, but nothing major for the Ohio Valley but would be a concern for east coast travel.

EURO NEXT WEEK EURO NEXT WEEK 2 GFS

Either way it appears something’s brewing next week.  It’s a matter of when, where and how strong.  It’s much too early for any more specifics than that.  Stay tuned and have a great evening – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Nov
17

Snow Showers and Squalls To Impact Roads Into Tuesday Morning

Posted By · November 17, 2014 at 2:22 pm

Our latest bout of Arctic air will team up with an upper disturbance to trigger snow showers and locally heavy squalls this afternoon and into tonight.  In the Live Doppler 13 Radar image below you can see the banded nature of the snow which is indicative of squalls.

RADAR

These features commonly produce quick accumulations, lowered visibility, and slick roads with localized areas.  Use caution if traveling as they’ll be cutting across north-south highways and can almost seem to come out of nowhere.  Blowing snow will also across create tricky travel and keep wind chills in the single digits during daylight hours.

TEMPS WIND CHILLS PLANNER AFTERNOON

Of course this is a stark contrast to the events happening in the state at this time a year ago.  November 17, 2013 produced the second largest tornado outbreak on record for Indiana with a statewide totals of 30 twisters.  The image below shows a snow covered Lebanon, IN today compared to the tornado that impacted the city a year ago at this time.  Click here for a link to a slideshow of images from that day.

COMPARE

Below are the tracks/intensity (image 1) for Central Indiana and radar rotational signatures (image 2) courtesy of the National Weather Service in Indianapolis.  They offer an detailed analysis of the outbreak here: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ind/?n=nov172013outbreak

NOV 17TH NOV 17TH ROTATION TRACKS WIND CHILL

Snow showers continue tonight and produce local accumulations up to an inch.  Near record lows in the single digits will make for icy driving tonight into Tuesday morning as salt will be less effecting.  Sub-zero wind chills will be widespread Tuesday morning and “highs” tomorrow will struggle to hit 20 degrees… which will be near record low levels.

PLANNER EVENING WIND CHILL 2

According to the National Weather Service in Indianapolis, the chill tomorrow will be the coldest early autumn air to hit Central Indiana in some 55 years… rivaling equal cold years of 1951 and 1976.

STATS RPM 2 RPM

Flurries and snow showers continue tomorrow and Wednesday again with localized accumulation.  Highs near the freezing mark Wednesday but a blustery wind makes it feel colder.

We’re still expecting temperatures near normal this weekend but the tradeoff of the warm up will be foggy and soggy conditions.  A wintry mix Saturday changes to a cold rain.  Highs in the 50s Sunday melts the snow but leads to fog and damp conditions.  Don’t be stunned to hear some thunder Sunday or Monday as a strong storm system moves across the Ohio Valley.  Be careful driving the next 24 hours – Sean Ash

PLANNER TUESDAY

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Nov
17

Heaviest Snowfall In Southeast Indiana Tonight

Posted By · November 17, 2014 at 12:34 am

Much of the accumulating snow is over for Central Indiana.  However moderate, to at times heavy, snow continues south of I-70 toward the Ohio River.  This was the snowiest November day in Indianapolis since 1997.  Officially 2.5″ fell at the National Weather Service in Indianapolis.

STATS

Below is a list provided by NWS Indianapolis of over snow reports.  Please note some of the reports are old and an updated list will be issued Monday morning.

STORM REPORTS

PLANNER EVENING

Accumulation overnight will primarily be along and south of a Vincennes-Bloomington-Rushville-Richmond line.  Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for the Cincinnati metro area and counties just north of the Ohio River… where 5″ is very possible.

ACCUM 2 ADVISORY RPM

Snow may return to Indianapolis but at the time of this posting it’s too early to tell if the northern fringe of the snow swath makes it that far north.  With or without additional snowfall, roads will be slick as temperatures drop into the middle 20s.

RPM 2 RPM 3

 

There’s growing concern for heavy snow showers and squalls Monday afternoon and evening that will blossom within approaching Arctic air.  These showers and a strengthening northwest wind will make for tricky driving conditions Monday evening.  Temperatures fall into the teens by 7pm and wind chills in the single digits.

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RPM 5 PLANNER MONDAY WIND CHILL

Tuesday morning will be flat out bitter.  Sub-zero wind chills and near record lows make for a nasty day with highs struggling to hit 20… that’s 15 below the average low!  Flurries and snow showers are likely Tuesday and Wednesday.  Next weekend looks warmer, but wet and foggy.  Be safe this morning and Chuck Lofton and Nicole Misencik will update the forecast.

WIND CHILL 2 7DAY

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Nov
16

Update On Snowy Night And The Pending Bitter Blast

Posted By · November 16, 2014 at 8:22 pm

Snow continues to accumulate rapidly and will be moderate to heavy at times in the Indianapolis between now and midnight.  Snow reports are coming into the Skytrak13 Weather Center and the highest thus far have been northwest of Indianapolis.  This will eventually change as the axis of snow drifts southeastward overnight.

Amounts At Time Of Posting (8:30pm)

Frankfort 3.3″

Attica 2.5″

Lafayette 2.2″

Carmel 2″

Kirklin 2″

Anderson 1.6″

Muncie 1.5″

Russiaville 1.5″

Martinsville 1″

SNOW REPORTS RADAR

Radar at 8:30pm shows heavier banding setting up around the Indy metro area.  Increasing snowfall rates and temperatures dropping into the mid-20s overnight sets up the entire region for a slick morning commute.

TEMPERATURES ADVISORY

The Winter Weather Advisory was expanded northward to include Lafayette and Monticello.  Many areas will be in the 3-4″ range and we still anticipate areas along/south of I-70 and I-74 to near 5″ in some locations.  Remember it’s always possible to have less or more than the forecast snow zones.  But the generally idea is lightest amounts in northwest Indiana and heaviest to be along/just north of the Ohio River.

ACCUM 2 PLANNER EVENING

Much of the accumulation for Indianapolis occurs prior to 5am.  So expect slick driving conditions heading home from the Colts game and for the morning commute.  Schools delays and cancellations are very likely Monday morning.

RPM RPM 2

Snow will continue for the southeastern half of the state early Monday morning.  This is the region of greatest potential hit the high side of the 3-5″ forecast.  Snow will shut down from northwest to southeast and be out of the state by midday.

 

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PLANNER MONDAY

As the snow exits our focus quickly shifts to looming surge of Arctic air.  The fresh snowpack will breed near record lows Tuesday morning and sub-zero wind chills.

WIND CHILL WIND CHILL 2

Tuesday and Wednesday feature single digit low temperatures and the peak of this bout of cold.  The chill eases heading into the weekend but it’s looking like a soggy and foggy weekend.  Updates to come.  Stay safe this evening – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Nov
16

Turning Snowy And Near Record Cold To Follow

Posted By · November 16, 2014 at 2:46 pm

Snow is falling in parts of Central Indiana and will continue to expand cover the area by 6-7pm.  Temperatures at this hour are above freezing and likely keep roadways wet until sunset.  Road conditions will get worse overnight as temperatures drop below freezing and snow intensity increases.

TEMPS ADVISORY

A Winter Weather Advisory begins at 5pm for most of the WTHR viewing area and lasts until 9am Monday.  Winter Storm Warnings are up for southern-southeastern Indiana where snow amounts may approach 5″.

PLANNER EVENING RPM RPM 2

If you or someone you know are going to the Colts game this evening expect to drive home in a snowy scene.  There may already be a few inches of snow on the ground and we’re still expecting around 3″ in the city before accumulation ends early Monday morning.

RPM 3 RPM 4 RPM 5 RPM 6

The idea of the snow potential map below is a gradient of lightest to heaviest from northwest to southeast.  Please keep in mind the zones are not fences and there is fluctuation expected either north or south.  As with any snow event, there will always be places within a particular zone that see more or less than forecast.  3″ seems like a reasonable number for Indianapolis which would be the heaviest early season snowfall since November 13th, 1997 when 3.3″ fell.  Areas south of I-70/74 have the greatest potential to reach and/or exceed 4″ with a zone of 5″ potential just north of the Ohio River.  I’ll post updates later as needed.

ACCUM 2

PLANNER MONDAY

A new surge of Arctic air blows into town Monday afternoon with falling temperatures into the lower 20s by 5pm.  That’s when wind chills drop into the single digits and mark a prolonged period of wind chills below 10 degrees.  Sub-zero wind chills are likely Tuesday morning and record cold temperatures are possible.

WIND CHILL WIND CHILL 2

The record low Tuesday morning (5 / 1880) and record cold high temperature (20/1880) will be rivaled due to the fresh snow pack and Arctic air.  Next weekend appears to be warmer but also much wetter.  For now it appears a wintry mix arrives Saturday then slowly changes to a cold rain.  Have a safe evening and check back for updates – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Nov
13

Coldest Day Since Early March And Weekend Snow Likely

Posted By · November 13, 2014 at 4:51 pm

The early taste of winter air continues to be impressive.  We’ve certainly been much colder before and it’s not record breaking, but temperatures 25-30 degrees below the average high gets your attention.

TEMPS

Wind chills are flirting with single digit territory early this evening with areas of flurries and light snow to continue.  A few locations have had a quick dusting today and heavier showers can drop a quick .25″ in spots.

WIND CHILL TEMP TREND

Not only are temperatures colder than the average high, but Indianapolis and the rest of Central Indiana are a good 10 degrees colder than the average low for this time of year.

COLD

This is the city’s first sub-30 degree high since March 3rd when there was a 2″ snow pack… which again quantifies the impressiveness of the air mass in place.  It appears many we’ll get their first 1″ snowfall ahead of schedule, which climatologically speaking is December 9th.  Better chances of accumulating snow arrive Saturday evening into Sunday morning with a trickier system in play Sunday night.

HEADLINES PLANNER FRIDAY

Friday may offer some peeks of sunshine, but overall there will be more clouds and continued cold.  Morning lows may drop into the teens if clouds break enough this evening.  Highs Friday again struggle to hit 30 degrees.

RPM RPM 2

Saturday begins dry and partially sunny before clouds quickly race in during the afternoon.  Snow should overspread the region by sunset Saturday but should quickly depart by midday Sunday.

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There is excellent agreement in mid-range computer models regarding snow amounts with the first of two systems to impact the region.  Most locations will be near 1″ but locally lower and/or higher totals are possible.

WEEKEND SNOW RPM 7

There is greater uncertainty in relation to the second, and potentially heavier, system this weekend.  As mentioned in prior posts, it’s too early to tell if surface low pressure intensification will occur closer to the Ohio River (which leads to higher snowfall) or farther east/south from the viewing area (less snow).  At this point there is a large region, including the Indianapolis metro area, that’s in play for greater than 2″ snowfall Sunday night into Monday morning with potential to impact schools Monday.  We recommend you check back for updates on a highly changeable forecast.

RPM SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT RPM JET

In the wake of this system even colder air blows in early next week.  Notice the continue sharp trough in the image above in the mid-levels which serves as the conveyor belt of Arctic air supply.  Admittedly our forecast “high” of 24 degrees Tuesday may be too warm and there should be a few mornings easily in the teens.  GFS ensemble mean temperature graph below (via WeatherBell.com) shows the cold grip easing around/after the 21st of the month.

GFS ENSEMBLE

As I mentioned in a blog post back on November 3rd, we’ll need to keep an eye out Thanksgiving week as that warmth may feed a robust storm system.  Indeed medium to long range guidance is already picking up on a formidable feature.  Obviously this far out it’s impossible to pinpoint an exact location, strength, impacts.  But the idea of an eventful mid-latitude storm shouldn’t be ignored.  More on this feature in the weeks ahead.

GFS EURO ENSEMBLE

7day

Have a great evening and thanks for reading my discussion – Sean Ash

 

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Nov
11

Cold Arrives Marking Active Pattern Change

Posted By · November 11, 2014 at 2:37 pm

The time for talk is over as the much advertised Polar Plunge continues its path across Central Indiana.  Though not as dramatic as the rapid temperature falls in the Rockies yesterday, the wind will make it feel 30-40 degrees colder this evening than the early day highs in the 60s.

WEATHERBUG

At time of this blog posting eastern Indiana remains in relatively balmy air, but that changes big time this evening.  The Indianapolis metro area is in the 40s now behind the front and the temperature tumble continues into the 30s by 5pm.

TEMPS WIND CHILL

A band of showers along the cold front may mix with snow as the cold air catches up to the moisture.  Though no accumulation is expected it serves notice of the shift to a January-like air mass that will hold a tight grip on a good chunk of the eastern U.S. 10 days or more.

RPM RPM 2 PLANNER EVENING

A persistent northwest fetch off of Lake Michigan may deliver lake effect flurries or snow showers later tonight into Wednesday morning…. primarily for areas northeast of Indianapolis.  Lows tonight fall into the 20s and wind chills early tomorrow will be in the teens.

RPM 3 RPM WIND CHILL

Any early morning sunshine Wednesday should give way quickly to a scattered to broken low-level cumulus cloud deck.  Highs will likely be below 40 degrees for the first time since mid-April.

PLANNER WEDNESDAY RPM 4

An upper level disturbance diving across the Ohio Valley Thursday could trigger snow showers and squalls late afternoon into the evening.  At the very least it will reinforce the already chilly air and knock daytime highs into the lower 30s Thursday and Friday.

RPM 5 RPM 6 JET STREAM

Weekend Snow Potential:  This upper level pattern is primed for cold and a few potential snow-makers.  The first of which locally shows up Saturday evening into Sunday.  Current modeling continues to support the notion of a quick-moving feature that doesn’t intensify until reaching the Appalachians.  Providing this holds we’re only expecting light snow, but possibly enough to accumulate Sunday.

JET STREAM 2 JET STREAM 3 JET STREAM 4

Bigger System Next Week?:  We continue to watch the possibility of potentially stronger system in play next week.  In fact both medium range GFS and EURO models show a deeper surface low (stronger system) impacting the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys Wednesday/Thursday of NEXT week.  The images below show surface pressure (black lines) and precipitation INTENSITY and not type.  Current modeled temperature profiles during that time would support winter precipitation and snow accumulation in Central Indiana.  However it’s 8-9 days away and will likely change between now and then.  But we’re watching it and will post updates as needed.

EURO GFS

With or without accumulating snow we’re not missing out on an impressive cold snap for mid-November.  As I’ve mentioned many times in the past few days… we’ve certainly had colder temperatures but the departure from normal and duration make this noteworthy.  Have a great evening and a big THANK YOU to those who have served our country.  Happy Veteran’s Day – Sean Ash

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Nov
09

From 60s To January-Like Cold This Week

Posted By · November 9, 2014 at 5:14 pm

Hope you’re enjoying the weekend despite the limited sunshine we’ve seen in Central Indiana.  Highs Sunday made it into the lower 50s but temperatures should soar well into the 60s Monday as a south-southwest wind teams up with sunshine.

TEMPS

You can see that warmth downstream in Missouri and central Illinois.  You can also see the well advertised chill we’ll have later in the week lurking north side of boundary along the U.S.-Canadian border.

HIGHS REGIONAL RPM RPM 2

Tonight and Monday:  Expect clouds to linger around this evening and overnight with seasonably cool lows in the upper 30s.  The passage of a warm front Monday ushers in a taste of warmer than normal air.  Highs will range from 60 in eastern Indiana to the mid/upper 60s in western Indiana.  Wind gusts late Monday may approach the 30-40mph range.

PLANNER MONDAY HIGHS TOMORROW RPM 3

This is in response to a developing fall storm that will drop accumulating snow from the Dakotas into the upper Great Lakes.  Windy conditions continue into Tuesday as the center of the storm passes to our north.  Showers become likely along a cold front on Veteran’s Day and some thunder is possible.  After highs briefly hit the upper 50s Tuesday, colder air filters in behind the front Tuesday night.

RPM 4 RPM 5 PLANNER TUESDAY HIGHS WEDNESDAY

Wednesday morning marks the beginning of a prolonged cold spell that will last a good 7 to 10 days… and possibly longer.  During this time expect temperatures to be 20 degrees colder than normal which equates to lows near 20 and highs in the 30s.

RPM 6 7DAY

Light snow is possible Thursday and we’ll need to get close tabs on snow potential next weekend… though it’s uncertain if the cold air will suppress any systems south of the Ohio River.  Get the cold weather gear ready and have a great evening – Sean Ash

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