A beautiful sunny day in Central Indiana with quite the temperature contrast from north to south. Due the fresh, heavy snow pack temperatures remained in the 30s across the northern half of the state. This was contrasted by much warmer highs in the 50s farther south. Until the snow melts away we’ll see these large contrasts.
We’ll need to monitor sky conditions and visibility closely overnight. There’s some indication areas of fog may develop under a clear sky and light wind. With morning lows in the 20s any areas that experience dense fog could likely see slick spots. Confidence is rather low on this portion of the forecast and you should definitely check in with Chuck Lofton Tuesday morning.
Plenty of sunshine on the docket tomorrow though with temperatures near 40 north, upper 40s central and 50s south again. If you’re traveling for Thanksgiving on Wednesday much of the country will have relatively quiet weather. A polar front slices the country in half on Thanksgiving and becomes the focal point for heavy rain in the southern and central Plains. Central Indiana will be on the warm side of the fence and have highs in the upper 50s Thursday! It should be noted there have only been 16 Thanksgiving Days on record in Indianapolis with a high at or greater than 60 degrees.
Though a few showers are possible, clouds mainly have more bark than bite and much of the day will be dry. Ideal running conditions are on tap for the Drumstick Dash in Broad Ripple. With cloud cover and temperatures in the 40s you should have great times! Good luck and thanks for supporting a great cause.
The aforementioned front creeps across our region Friday… delivering quite a wet day for shopping, traveling and the Circle of Lights. This is subject to change, but it appears rather wet with temperatures falling into the 40s by 9pm. We’ll adjust as timing and coverage as needed – Sean Ash
Despite a good deal of sunshine, Sunday was the coldest day in Central Indiana since early March. In fact areas that received the heaviest snow Saturday never climbed out of the 20s after starting in the single digits.
A weak fast-moving disturbance spreads clouds into the region tonight that will help limit cooling in snow pack areas. This feature may have enough energy to squeeze-out some flurries or a little snow across the northern half of the state. So don’t be surprised to see some more flakes.
Otherwise it will be a quiet, cold start to Thanksgiving week with brisk conditions Monday. Expect morning lows in the 20s and highs slowly climbing into the 40s. A gradual warm up into the 50s Wednesday afternoon and perhaps hitting 60 degrees Thanksgiving for only the 17th time on record in Indianapolis.
A mild holiday but also a rather cloudy Thanksgiving. However clouds have more bark than bite on Thursday with just a slight chance of rain. The slight chance becomes likely Friday with a decent soaker occurring along a slow moving cold front. It’s too early to say if the rain will exit prior to Circle Of Light festivities but we’ll continue to update – Sean Ash
We’re wrapping up a wet and windy day in Central Indiana with just spotty showers around the next few hours. Wind gusts were impressive with Shelbyville, Anderson and Sharpsville all in the 50+mph club. Many cities experienced gusts over 45mph which prompted a Wind Advisory for the region. The axis of steady, heavy, wind-whipped rain continues moving east and we’ll see clouds cover this evening and overnight.
You’ll notice a much cooler feel to the air Thursday morning as temperatures settle into the lower 40s… nearly 15-20 degrees colder than this morning! Tomorrow will be much brighter but also remaining breezy. Highs creep back into the 50s during the afternoon. Friday is quiet, but after morning sunshine expect clouds to increase as a quick-moving storm system takes aim on the Great Lakes.
We began mentioning the potential for the season’s first flakes back on Sunday and that remains in play for this Saturday. We’re still 72 hours away and there remains uncertainty on storm track, moisture and just how quickly cold air interacts with moisture… but the overall idea is that rain will either mix with or change to a period of wet snow heading into Saturday evening. For now it appears the area with the greatest probability of seeing a grassy accumulation would be north of Indy. But again it’s too early for specifics.
With or without any accumulation it’s highly likely the coldest air of the fall hits Sunday. We’re expecting wind chills in the 10 to 15 degree range and highs struggle into the lower 30s. This would be our coldest day since March and sets the trend for early next week. However, long range indicators suggest another warmer than normal set up for Thanksgiving. It’s possible highs may get back to the near 60 for Turkey Day. Stay tuned – Sean Ash
A Wind Advisory in effect for Central Indiana until 5pm for possible gusts up to 50mph. With the wind comes rather wet conditions for the eastern half of the state including the Indianapolis metro area. A slow-moving axis of moisture creeps into the Ohio by late day, but between now and then expect wind-whipped downpours traveling south to north within the broader line. Rain amounts approach an inch in spots.
The passage of a cold front this evening brings in air more indicative of mid to late November. Highs in the 60s today drop into 40s and lower 50s Thursday… despite a much brighter sky tomorrow. A brisk westerly wind gusts up to 20-25mph and makes it feel cooler than the actually highs. Calmer conditions arrive tomorrow night and allows lows to drop into the lower 30s Friday morning. Friday begins with sunshine but finishes gray as clouds increase in advance of the next system to impact the Great Lakes.
We’re currently analyzing the latest data sets… but at this point aren’t making any wholesale changes to our initial forecast thoughts with this storm Saturday. Rain mixes with or changes to a period of wet snow for central, and especially northern Indiana. Accumulation is unlikely for our viewing area but a bigger possibility for parts of Wisconsin, far northern Illinois/Indiana and Lower Michigan. The bigger story for the Indy metro area will be the intrusion of the season’s coldest air as temperatures fall into the 30s Saturday afternoon and lower 20s Sunday morning.
Windy conditions wrapping up the strengthening storm over the Great Lakes pushes wind chills into the teens Saturday night into Sunday. While this is certainly not uncommon for November, it will be a shock to the system given it’s been the 9th warmest November on record thus far. Time to dig out heavy coats – Sean Ash
The forecast of gray and damp certainly verified in Central Indiana, though it appears we’ll be getting a break from steady precipitation this evening. Due to the thick overcast and a steady southeasterly wind, temperatures remain steady if not rising a few degrees overnight into Wednesday morning. A steady breeze may be enough to prevent widespread fog and drizzle from forming despite a fairly saturated atmosphere.
A new batch of rain arrives Wednesday morning and it turtles across the state for the better part of tomorrow. The slow nature, and nearly due south to north movement of cells in the line, produces locally heavy amounts between 7am and 6pm Wednesday. Rain diminishes west to east tomorrow evening and paves the way for the pick of the week Thursday.
We’ll be under a good dose of sunshine and highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s. However gusty wind will take some bite of the sunshine with speeds of 15 to 25mph during peak heating hours Thursday. A new system quickly emerges Friday night into Saturday as a fast-moving upper storm carves out a surface system that may deliver the season’s first snowflakes. It’s still several days out and track remains uncertain… but several model runs point toward rain and/or snow moving across Central Indiana late Friday night into Saturday. At this time accumulation is highly doubtful for the Indy metro area and certainly point southward.
The latest GFS and Euro model outputs track the surface low across Central Indiana… which is typically a rain changing to backside snow showers type of set up. It’s still several days out and track remains uncertain… but several model runs point toward rain and/or snow moving across Central Indiana late Friday night into Saturday. At this time accumulation is highly doubtful for the Indy metro area and certainly point southward.
But heavier precipitation rates and deeper cold air may enough in northern Indiana to overcome a relatively warmer ground to enable some accumulation. Confidence remains low at the moment but we’ll post updates in the days ahead. The bigger story ultimately will be the arrival of our coldest daytime highs since late March. Highs Sunday in the mid-30s will be 30 degrees colder than last weekend! We’re also staring down multiple mornings in the teens and 20s for lows. It appears an active pattern carries over into Thanksgiving week and the beginning of December, but considerably uncertain on whether we’ll be on the warm or cold side of systems. Please check back for updates as this forecast will likely change between now and then – Sean Ash
Hope you’re having a great Monday thus far. As anticipated clouds continue to increase across Central Indiana and the shelf life of dry weather expires by 5pm today. Regional radar and satellite shows the initial surge of moisture from a developing storm system in the Southern Plains.
All bets are off for dry conditions in the viewing area by 2-3pm and showers will steadily increase heading toward sunset. After topping out in the mid/upper 50s, temperatures gradually fall into the 40s after precipitation begins. This makes for a damp, raw evening and marks the beginning of a wet stretch into Wednesday afternoon.
Another surge rain and storms spreads across the state Tuesday morning. We don’t expect any severe weather but downpours are definitely fair game and some beneficial rainfall. Latest model data suggests steadier, heavier rain pivots north of the viewing area by late afternoon tomorrow. The atmosphere reloads as the center of the storm moves east… placing Central Indiana in the cross hairs of an axis of heavy rain and thunder Wednesday.
By the time the rain diminishes late Wednesday afternoon we’re expecting a widespread 1-2″ accumulation. Higher amounts of 2-3″ seem most likely across the southern half of the state. A cold front pushes moisture east but ushers in unseasonably cool conditions Thursday into the weekend… with several days in a row with highs in the 40s. Have a good day – Sean Ash
We certainly enjoyed a great weekend and hopefully you had a chance to get out and enjoy. A quiet evening head with seasonably cool lows in the 30s tonight.
Monday begins with some sunshine but expect clouds to increase throughout the day with some showers possible by sunset. Despite less sunshine tomorrow, highs climb into the mid and upper 50s.
Better rain and storm chances arrive Tuesday as the latest fall storm gets closer from the Central and Southern Plains. It appears we’ll have periods of showers and thunder from Tuesday morning to Wednesday night. Some heavy rain will be possible during that time but it appears Central Indiana will likely dodge severe weather at this time.
Rain amounts likely fall in the 1″ to 2.5″ range over Central Indiana. But it should be noted we’re not far away from the heaviest modeled axis in Illinois. Any shift to the upper storm will change rain amounts higher or lower. Check back for updates.
Model guidance later this week suggests below normal air arriving Thursday night into Friday… with several days with highs in the 40s. Unfortunately guidance diverges on a solution for next weekend regarding precipitation type. There is some data that supports a cold enough temperature profile for snow showers to mix with rain showers. It’s still a week away so it’s tough to try and peg an exact outcome. For now we’ll mention the possibility of rain/snow showers but with a disclaimer of low confidence. Have a great evening – Sean Ash
Strong wind continues to rip across Central Indiana and much of the Great Lakes. Thus far highest gusts have been in the 50 to near 55mph range. Expect gusts of 40 to near 50mph until sunset with temperatures in the 40s and lower 50s.
Clouds clear later this evening and overnight with but breezy conditions linger into Friday afternoon. Lows drop into the mid-30s with bus stop and morning commute wind chills in the 20s tomorrow.
Sunshine will be a welcomed sight Friday but also help ignite some gusty thermal winds during peak heating hours. Though not as strong as today, wind gusts of 35 to near 40mph will certainly get your attention during the afternoon. Gusts should quickly diminish toward and after sunset tomorrow which is perfect timing for Operation Football.
High pressure settles across the region Friday night and allows temperatures to tumble into the lower and mid-20s Saturday morning… the coldest levels around here since late March. But the frosty start gives way to a beautifully sunny weekend in Central Indiana. Expect highs Saturday in the 50s and in the 60s Sunday.
The next fall storm shows up early next week and likely spawns a multi-day severe weather event south and southwest of Central Indiana… though we’ll need to monitor for a conditional severe threat Tuesday and Wednesday.
The bigger story will be heavy rainfall and computer model consensus is in the 2″ to 4″ range. So we’re advising to get yard work done this weekend before the deluge arrives.