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Jul
27

Severe Threat Over As Fall Air Arrives

Posted By · July 27, 2014 at 8:03 pm

The severe weather threat is over for central Indiana as the last line of storms depart toward to the Ohio River.  Less humid and stable air continues to ride into the state from northwest to southeast after the passage of a cold front.

NOW DEWPOINTS

This Evening: Thought it remains oppressively humid in southeastern Indiana, you can see the drier 50 degree dew points already advecting into northwestern Indiana.  We’re all heading to Comfy Town tonight so you can open the windows before bed and let in the fresh air.

DEWPOINTS2 HEADLINES

Tonight: You’ll notice a big difference in the feel of the air by midnight and then wake up to cool, crisp conditions with lows near 60.  Mostly clear conditions are expected for much of the night, but it’s possible low clouds may creep in by sunrise.

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Monday:  The air mass overhead tomorrow will definitely have a fall feel.  It marks the beginning of a three day stretch of temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below normal with near record low levels Monday afternoon into Wednesday morning.

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The cold air aloft will allow intervals of low cloudiness to build along with spotty afternoon showers Monday afternoon.  The refreshing breeze continues from the north-northwest at 15 to 25mph.  Afternoon highs struggle into the lower 70s and set the stage for an even colder night.

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We’ll continue to be on record watch Tuesday morning with lows in the 40s and lower 50s.  Tuesday afternoon highs likely climb above the record low maximum, but not by much.

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Record lows will again be challenged Wednesday morning with lows near 50 degrees.  This stretch of unseasonably cool air ensures that July 2014 will be one of Indianapolis’ coolest on record, and August will at least start on a cooler than normal note.

7DAY

Despite the daily chance I have on much of the 7 day forecast, there will be ample dry time in the days ahead.  Enjoy the evening – Sean Ash

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Jul
27

Update On Severe Storm Potential

Posted By · July 27, 2014 at 2:21 pm

***Severe Storm Watch Northern Indiana / Tornado Watch Far Eastern Indiana Until 9pm***

TORNADOWATCH

The Tornado Watch includes Richmond, Connersville and Brookville… and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch includes Monticello, Marion and Peru.  At time of this posting (2:15pm) there was no immediate threat of severe weather.

SEVEREWATCH

But widely scattered strong to severe storms have developed along a cold front in Illinois and will impact central Indiana this afternoon this sharp cold front moves across the state.  All modes of severe weather are in play, but damaging wind and lightning appear to main threats.

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SPC

Though the eastern half of Indiana is technically under the Slight Risk… we believe severe storms are possible in western Indiana too.

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FutureTrak13 shows the linear nature of the storms moving across the state with strong wind gust and hail potential.

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Storms will quickly diminish by 10pm as the front races out of the state and delivers the much advertised fall air mass.  Near record cold temperatures will be possible Monday into Wednesday morning, with temperature anomalies of 10 to 20 degrees.

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Stay weather aware this evening until we give the all clear.

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Jul
23

Record Rainfall To Areas Of Dense Fog Tonight

Posted By · July 23, 2014 at 4:15 pm

It was a record breaking rainfall for Indianapolis today.  1.61″ is the new daily record and many locations in the metro area and southward received 1-2″ from rounds of showers and storms.

RECORD

In just a few hours the city nearly doubled the rainfall from the first 22 days of the month… this was truly what the doctor ordered for what was becoming parched landscape around the area.

RAINREPORTS

Unfortunately cities like Lafayette, Terre Haute, Muncie and Kokomo fell on the short end of the rain stick with values well less than one inch.  Lingering spotty showers and some rumbles of thunder are possible south of I-70… with a slow clearing to take place from the northwest to southeast.

Dewpoints

Dew points at the time of this posting remained in the tropical category.  So the Muggy Meter this afternoon hangs in the uncomfortable range, but will drop into the pleasant category by Thursday morning as drier air advects into central Indiana.

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The combination of clouds clearing and saturated ground tonight will produce areas of dense fog and low clouds for the morning commute.  It’s possible visibility may be low enough to near Advisory criteria so check back for updates.

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Once morning fog dissipates, Thursday will be one our better days… with sun and clouds, pleasant highs in the 70s and a refreshing breeze.  This is perfect timing for opening Brickyard 400 festivities at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.  Friday will also be nice before an unsettled set up arrives for Brickyard 400 weekend.

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Highs Friday will be in the upper 70s to near 80, but jump into the upper 80s and lower 90s on the south side of warm front Saturday.  Late Friday night and early Saturday morning this front may trigger the first of a few rounds of storms set to move through this weekend.

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Additional storms are likely Saturday night into Sunday morning and to be determined how quickly they’ll move out during Brickyard 400 Race Day.  Could be a challenging weekend at IMS.  We’ll narrow down timing and coverage in the coming days.

GFSANOMALY

Long range guidance has done but strengthen the idea of considerably below normal temperatures to wrap up the month of July.  The air mass within the base of a sharp trough in the eastern US will deliver temperature anomalies of 10-20 degrees over a good chunk of real estate.

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We may be challenging the record books Monday into Wednesday.  Here’s a list of record low temperatures to keep an eye on next week:

Monday / Record Low Maximum: 72 (set in 1928 & 1925) / Forecast: 72

Tuesday Record Low: 51 (set in 1881) / Forecast: 53

Tuesday / Record Low Maximum: 72 (set in 1889) / Forecast: 71

Wednesday Record Low: 51 (set in 1965) / Forecast: 53

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Have a great evening and please check back for changes – Sean Ash

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Jul
22

Storm Chance Late Tonight And Wednesday

Posted By · July 22, 2014 at 4:37 pm

We’re sweating through an oppressive Muggy Meter today in central Indiana with hot, hazy conditions.  Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s with heat indices firmly in the 90s.

Dewpoints

Patience is required if you’re not a fan of the sticky air, but will be rewarded Wednesday afternoon and evening.

MUGGYMETER SPC

There is a chance of some storms late tonight (after midnight) and toward sunrise Wednesday and northwestern Indiana is under a Slight Risk for severe weather.  But I have serious doubts there will be much storm coverage due to a warm air “lid” over central Indiana.

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Expect very humid conditions to start tomorrow, but drier air arrives in the afternoon after the passage of a cold front around midday.  The transition keeps storm chances in play for areas along, and especially south of I-70.

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You should notice a refreshing breeze kicking in later in the day that drag in pleasant air for late week.

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Thursday looks like a fine day with sunshine and highs in the mid-70s, which is perfect timing for the beginning Brickyard 400 festivities at IMS.  Expect plenty of sun and comfortable conditions.

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Our coolest temperatures happen Thursday night into Friday morning when many drop into the 50s.  Friday will be warmer as highs near 80.

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JET

Latest model trends point toward a potentially active set up this weekend in central Indiana… with multiple storm complexes possible on the edge of the hot dome centered to our west.  There is much uncertainty on timing and coverage at this point, but know that the first complex may arrive Friday night into Saturday morning.  This set up could have big implications on weekend plans and Brickyard 400 festivities.  Check back for updates.

JET2

As this blog has addressed for several days now, all signs lead to another impressive bout of unseasonably cool air next week… beginning Monday and lasting into the first week of August.

GFSANOMALY

There is general consensus in modeling of a high amplitude trough over the eastern US that would deliver an air mass capable of 10 to 20 degree temperature anomalies.  So we’ll go from near 90 degrees today to highs in the lower to mid 70s this time next week.

GFSANOMALY2 GFSTEMPS

Notice in the image above (GFS ensemble data provided be weatherbell.com) the stretch of lows in the 50s beginning Tuesday and lasting for several days.  This will allow for a nice stretch of A/C free conditions.  However we do need some rain and hopefully your backyard gets some Wednesday or this weekend.

7 day

Thanks for visiting the blog and have a great evening – Sean Ash

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For a change it feels like summer in central Indiana.  This includes hazy sunshine, humid heat in the 80s and a light southwest wind.  In what’s been the coldest July on record for the first 20 days of the month, this is welcomed news by Hoosiers longing for good “pool” weather.

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The Muggy Meter continues to creep into the humid to uncomfortable range with dew points in the 60s.  If you’re heading to Victory Field this evening for the Indianapolis Indians it’s a good idea to dress in comfortable clothes.  But it will be a great evening for baseball and anything else outdoors.

Dewpoints INDIANS

Much like the past couple of mornings, areas of locally dense fog will accompany the Tuesday morning commute.  Though it’s difficult to pinpoint exact locations… low-lying areas, riverbeds and valleys are usual suspects for low visibility.

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Any fog will quickly dissipate to allow for a hazy sky.  Temperatures will quickly warm into the lower 80s by 11am and upper 80s between 2-4pm.  For the first time this year Indianapolis may officially hit 90 degrees… snapping the 314 day sub-90 degree day streak.  This is the 8th longest streak in the past 30 years for the city and we’re now a month past the climatological norm for the first 90 degree temperature.

planner2 highs

Regardless of the city technically hits 90 degrees it will certainly feel like with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.  Storms will continue to bypass the central Indiana to the north-northwest tomorrow.  But we’ll monitor a storm initiation along  a cold front late tomorrow evening in the Michiana area for local impact.

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Our next best chance of rain and storms will be Wednesday.  Though it’s not an ideal set up for severe weather, locally strong storms are possible and heavy rain is likely in any storms that develop.

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By Wednesday evening much of the are will be north side of a cold front and feeling the impacts to the return of northwesterly wind.  This will bring the first of two much cooler than normal spells to the region… but will be tame compared to what’s brewing for the July 28-30 time frame.

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As noted in the blog yesterday, another sharp atmospheric trough will establish itself over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early next week.  The end result will below normal temperatures and daily chances of showers and storms underneath an upper low.

JET2 ANALOG

Analog data (above) give this forecaster higher than normal confidence on this pattern delivering fall-ish conditions for days 7-10 in the forecast period… with 95% of 105 analogs (similar historical atmospheric conditions) delivering below normal air.  (Map provided by http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/extended.php)

EUROANOMALY

Both the European (above) and GFS (below) models show another air mass capable of producing temperature anomalies of 10-20 degrees below normal.  This would result in near record low maximums next Tuesday and Wednesday.  Stay tuned as we update this trend.

GFSANOMALY GFSTEMPS

Tomorrow is hands down our hottest day of the next couple of weeks.  The graph above is highs/lows from the GFS Ensemble output displays how we’ll most likely be on the cooler side of normal after Tuesday.  (Three images above are courtesy of weatherbell.com)

7 day

The transition to the cool pattern next week may deliver scattered showers and storms this weekend.  Confidence is low at the moment on coverage and timing… but there is potential impact to Brickyard 400 festivities this weekend.  Check back for updates and have a great evening – Sean Ash

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Jul
20

Hottest Air Of The Year Possible Tuesday

Posted By · July 20, 2014 at 5:38 pm

Overall this shaped up to be a decent Sunday in central Indiana with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.  You probably noticed a increase in haze and humidity, and that trend continues the next couple of days.

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Areas of locally dense fog develop overnight and will impact the Monday morning commute for some.  Low temperatures range from 60 to 65.  Any fog should quickly depart by late morning, and hazy sun will be the rule of thumb tomorrow.

HIGHS

With highs in the mid to upper 80s and heat indices in the 90s, Monday will be a good pool day… something we haven’t had much of lately.

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Indianapolis’ streak of sub-90 degree days is up to 313.  There is a chance of snapping the streak Tuesday when temperatures make a run at that elusive number.  Even if we don’t hit 90 it will certainly feel like with heat indices well into the 90s.

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Our next best chance of rain and storms is late Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon along an approaching cold front.  Some of these storms will produce heavy rain and gusty wind.

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If we miss 90 degrees Tuesday the streak may continue well past this weekend.  Long range guidance suggesting another unseasonably cool air mass arriving July 28-30… possibly producing temperature anomalies of 10-20 degrees below normal.

EURO

Above is the upper air pattern projected by the European model for next Tuesday.  This shows another pronounced trough/upper low sitting across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley… similar to the set up that produced the chill last week.

GFS

The latest GFS ensemble 850mb (roughly 5,000ft) temperature anomaly map for the same time shows fall-ish conditions returning as well.  It’s far out, but this long range signals agreeing suggest a higher than normal confidence in the day 8-10 outlook.  Below is surface temperatures from the same model Indianapolis.  Notice that 13 of the next 15 days produce below normal highs, and mid-70s may be too “warm” next Tuesday.  It’s something we’ll monitor closely in the week ahead.  (Image above and below courtesy of weatherbell.com)

GFS_ENS

In the short term, after storms on Wednesday we’re in store for a pleasant Thursday and Friday.  Prior to the aforementioned cool spell next week with a period of storms that may impact the Brickyard 400 next Sunday.  We’ll be fine tuning that forecast in the days ahead.

7DAY

  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

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Jul
17

Cool Spell Eases For Weekend Warm Up

Posted By · July 17, 2014 at 3:43 pm

Are you fan of our latest stretch of unseasonably cool air in central Indiana?  If not your patience will be rewarded early next week when highs near 90 degrees.  Between now and then it will be a gradual transition from comfortable humidity to an oppressive Muggy Meter.

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This Evening:  It’s nothing but nice this evening if you’re heading to the free Concert on the Canal in Indianapolis outside the Historical Society… or anything else you’re doing for that matter.  Highs today remained 5 to 10 degrees below normal in what’s been an impressively cool start to July.

RECORD

The first 16 days of this month produced an average temperature of 70.9 degree… which would be good for 2nd coolest July on record if the month ended today.  There’s still plenty of month and potential heating left, but this will be a statistic we’ll follow closely the next couple of weeks.

RECORDS

This is now officially the 6th longest wait on record for the first 90-degree day of the year in Indianapolis… and longest stretch since 2004 when there were zero 90-degree days in the city.  The average first date for the first 90 degree temperature was nearly a month ago, and the city averages 18 days in the 90s in a year.

RECORDS_3 LOWS

Tonight and Friday:  This will likely be the last night of windows open and A/Cs off.  So enjoy the low to mid 50s Friday morning and pleasant highs nearing 80 Friday afternoon.  Much like the past few days, expect a mostly cloud-free morning with fair weather cumulus clouds popping during the heating of the day.

HIGHS PLANNER RPM

Weekend Outlook:  For the past few days we’ve mentioned uncertainty regarding precipitation chances this weekend in relation to an approaching upper level system.  Latest analysis and model data suggests this feature should bypass our viewing area to the south and southeast… with perhaps some residual cloud cover.

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You will notice an increase in humidity Saturday evening heading into Sunday, and this marks a transition to typical summer weather for the Ohio Valley.  Don’t forget the Indy Eleven are back on the pitch Saturday evening and it should be a nice night for soccer.

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7 Day Forecast:  It appears our next best chance of rain and storms will  Wednesday with the approach of a cold front.  These storms will have heavy rain potential and we’ll need to monitor for severe weather as well.  Have a great evening – Sean Ash

7DAY

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Jul
14

Stormy Commute For Some This Afternoon

Posted By · July 14, 2014 at 3:59 pm

A line of storms with a history of wind damage and severe wind gusts continues to trek across central Indiana at 40-45mph.  This line will impact the Indianapolis metro between 5-6pm with gusty wind, downpours and lightning… and earlier for areas west of the city.

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Severe wind remains the main threat with this line… and along the leading edge is where the strongest gusts can be expected.

STORMBARS WATCH

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for central and western Indiana until 7pm, but the severe threat diminishes after the leading of the line passes your community.

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The wind threat is over by 9pm and then we’ll focus on the stretch of near record cool air.  Expect additional warnings before this line weakens.

 

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