Another Cool Night and a Tricky Holiday Weekend Forecast

It will be cool and clear overnight, with lows in the 50s for the second night in a row.  Thursday will be mostly sunny and a bit warmer, with highs in the lower 80s.

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We are still tracking a fast moving weather system for Thursday night and early Friday.  Right now we are forecasting a few showers and maybe a rumble of thunder early Friday morning.  The rest of Friday will be dry and warm, with highs in the lower 80s.  This is great news for Friday night plans, as you start your long holiday weekend.

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The end of the holiday weekend forecast is tricky.  We are tracking a developing weather system that will bring heavy rain to Kansas, Missouri and Illinois this holiday weekend.  Part of that weather system will impact Indiana.  There is still some degree of uncertainty to timing and how much rain.  As you make your outdoor plans for later Sunday and Monday, check back with us.  This is the timeframe for the better chance for rain.  Here is the an early look at the development of that storm system out to our west through Saturday afternoon.

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I mentioned the uncertainty in timing and rainfall potential.  Here is a look at the GFS and the Euro…just 2 of the longer range models that help us forecast the weather.  You can see the GFS has higher totals for the northern part of the state and the Euro has the higher totals south.  This system is still developing and we will keep you updated on timing to help you make your holiday plans.

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90 degree heat is still in the forecast for the middle part of next week.

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A Milder Change

Temperatures on Tuesday afternoon were running 10-15 cooler than Monday afternoon.  This milder change will last through Thursday.  We are forecasting morning temperatures in the 50s Wednesday and Thursday.  Here are the numbers for tonight.

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There will be some sun on Wednesday, with highs 75-80 degrees.

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We warm back into the lower and middle 80s by Thursday and stay there through the holiday weekend.  This is close to where we should be for the first of July.  The average high is near 85 degrees.

We will also be tracking a chance for rain.  Right now it looks like the best chance for scattered showers and storms will be on Friday.  As long as this weather system moves south, we will be dry and warm for the 4th of July weekend.

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We will keep you update on any changes, but for now we have highs in the lower and middle 80s Saturday through Monday and dry weather.  90 degree heat returns next week.

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A Break from the Heat

Monday was the 8th day this month at or above 90 degrees.  90 degree heat not in the forecast, as we track a weather pattern change.

We will start to feel it overnight, as temperatures fall in to the 60s.  Watch for a few patches of fog early Tuesday morning.  There will be a mix of sun and clouds on Tuesday, with afternoon temperatures 75-80 degrees.

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We will have a couple of mornings in the 50s (Wednesday and Thursday) and highs Tuesday through Thursday will be cooler than the average high of 85 degrees.

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There will be a weather system to watch to our northwest later this week.  Right now we have a chance for a few storms in the Saturday forecast.  We will keep you updated, as we get closer to the holiday weekend.  It does look like we get more dry weather than wet weather and highs in the 80s for the long holiday weekend.

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Sunday Heat and Storm Chances

The weekend will end with heat and storm chances.  Sunday will very warm from start to finish.  8am temperatures will be in the middle 70s.  We will be in the middle and upper 80s by noon, with highs forecast in the lower 90s.  With high humidity too, heat index values will be in the range of 95-100.

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A stray storm is possible on Sunday.  We are timing the best chance for a line of rain and storms from about 4pm to 11pm.  We will keep you updated on any changes to the timing, as you make your outdoor plans.

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There is some milder air behind this weather system, but we won’t feel it until Tuesday of next week.  We still have near 90 degrees in the forecast for Monday.  Milder air arrives Monday night and will last through mid-week.  We may have a couple of mornings in the 50s next week.

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Weekend Forecast

Heat is in the weekend forecast.  We have had 6 90 degree days this year and we should add a couple more this weekend.  We average about 15 90 degree days each year.

It will be a mild and clear Friday night with lows in the 60s.  A few upper 50s are possible in eastern Indiana overnight.  From a mild start, it will be a quick warm-up into the lower 80s by noon.  Highs will be near 90 degrees on Saturday and Sunday.

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Our Indianapolis Indians are in town all weekend.  It will be warm for the 7:05pm Saturday game and the 1:35pm Sunday game, with temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.  There is a chance for a few storms on Sunday.  Here is the timing with FutureTrak13.  The best chance for storms on Sunday will be late afternoon and early evening.

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The heat will last through Monday.  We expect milder air to return the middle of next week.

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Friday Forecast and Weekend Heat

It was a hot and very humid Thursday, as central Indiana cleans up from severe storms.  These storms impacted areas north of Indianapolis with destructive winds.  From the storm reports, you can see how many people were affected by the severe weather Wednesday night and early Thursday.  Locally there were dozens of damaging wind reports.

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There will be a couple of storms possible mainly south of Indianapolis Thursday evening.  We get a bit of relief from the high heat and high humidity on Friday, with highs in the middle 80s.

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Heat is back for the weekend, with highs near 90 on Saturday and Sunday.  There is a chance for a couple of storms on Sunday and Monday, but heat will be in the bigger story through the weekend.  It breaks by Tuesday and we get a few days in the 80s next week.

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Wednesday Evening Update

The threat for severe weather continues and storms are starting to develop.  Any individual storm that develops will contain the threat for tornadoes.  Have a way to get watches and warnings this evening and overnight.  Keep you television on and your cell phone charged.

In addition to individual storms that develop, we are tracking the potential for a line of storms with the threat for damaging winds over 70mph and flash flooding.  Here is the timeline for the line of storms.

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Rain and Storms Arrive Early Wednesday

The SkyTrak13 Weather Team continues to track 2 rounds of storms for Wednesday.  The first arrives around sunrise and will last through early afternoon.  This first round will contain heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding, damaging winds and hail.  This first round will include several waves of heavy rain and storms.  Here is the latest timeline with FutureTrak13.

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We are forecasting a few dry hours late afternoon before a second round of storms Wednesday evening.  That next round will last through Monday night and early Thursday morning.  The risk for severe storms with flash flooding, damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes is in the forecast with the second round too.  Stay tuned for updates on timing and have a way to get watches and warnings on Wednesday.

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Overnight Storms and Milder Tuesday

The SkyTrak13 Weather Team tracked storms for about 7 hours on Monday evening.  There were about a dozen reports of trees down and winds were estimated near 60mph near Reynolds in NW Indiana.  Heavy rain was also an issue, with pockets of 2″+ estimated by radar.

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Late Monday night, the boundary triggering the storms was stuck across the central part of Indiana.  Storms will continue through the early part of Tuesday morning.  When the boundary moves south, so will the storms.  This should happen by 2am.  Most of Tuesday will be dry and won’t be as hot, with highs in the middle 80s.  We get some relief from the high heat and humidity, as the boundary or cold front sits to our south.

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That same boundary/front will lift back north on Wednesday.  It will again be the trigger for rain and storms.  Heavy rain, flash flooding, damaging winds will be the severe weather threats  with several complexes of storms.  We will keep you updated on the timing and the severe threat.

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Heat is back for Friday and the weekend.

Late Monday Evening Update

The SkyTrak13 Weather Team continues to track a few storms Monday evening.  Right now we are forecasting the storms to continue over the next couple of hours.

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Some storms earlier Monday evening were severe and there were reports of winds near 60mph north of Lafayette.  There were several reports of trees down near Cicero and Brookston too.

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From the radar rainfall estimation, you can see where the storms were Monday evening.  There were a few pockets of 2″+ totals.

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There will be another update around 11pm, with the overnight storm potential.