Low pressure brings heavy rain this weekend; flooding possible

A strong area of low pressure will move across Indiana this weekend and up to two inches of rain is likely late Saturday through Sunday.

A strong area of low pressure will move across Indiana this weekend and up to two inches of rain is likely late Saturday through Sunday.

A Flood Warning continues for central Indiana through next week. Flooding near clogged drainage areas and along area rivers is likely by Sunday morning.

As temperatures fall on Sunday, rain will change to snow showers.

Another Round Of Heavy Rain This Weekend

Welcome to the wettest day since mid-September, with rainfall totals from this morning’s deluge over an inch in spots.

Expect a decent break from downpours between now and Saturday evening, with the focus shifting to unseasonably warm air.  Highs this afternoon will come close to 60° across central Indiana… a good 20°-25° above normal.

No doubt you can feel the difference today, but take a look at the side-by-side comparison of the Greenfield Intermediate school camera.  The snapshot from left is Monday, and right was taken from today.  The January Thaw has eaten away all of the winter storm from late December.

Saturday begins rather cloudy, but dry.  So plenty of time tomorrow to enjoy the warmth before the sky opens-up tomorrow night.

Below are a series of the latest FutureTrak13 model.  Notice the leading of the rain shield approaching by 7pm Saturday.

There is a consensus most computer models of heavy, banded precipitation setting up over the viewing area Saturday evening.  Within this band an additional 2″ of rainfall potential exists.  Localized street flooding is a real threat Saturday night/early Sunday morning.  DO NOT drive around barricades or road blocks!

You can monitor river levels and river forecast levels here via the National Weather Service Indianapolis’ hydrologic site.

Have a great weekend!

Sean Ash – Twitter and Facebook

 

Rainy weekend

Tonight temperatures will climb into the 50s after midnight and rain and isolated thunderstorms will bring up to 1″ of rain. Our Friday will start with rain and end with a little sunshine.

Tonight temperatures will climb into the 50s after midnight and rain and isolated thunderstorms will bring up to 1″ of rain. Our Friday will start with rain and end with a little sunshine.

More rain is likely on Saturday with thunderstorms after 1pm. Heavy rain is likely and some spots will receive up to an additional 1-2″ of rain.

Rainfall runoff combined with moisture from melted snow will cause flooding. Sunday night much colder air moves in, and rain will turn to snow.

Rumbles of Thunder & A Big Warm Up

Rain chances increase as we head into the afternoon and tonight rumbles of thunder are possible across Central Indiana.

Rain chances increase as we head into the afternoon and tonight rumbles of thunder are possible across Central Indiana.

Highs will reach the mid 40s today, with rain becoming likely by this afternoon.

Tonight, rain and isolated thunderstorms are likely. 

Temps will actually rise as we head into Friday morning.  When we wake up Friday, temps will be in the 50s with rain and isolated thunderstorms.  Rain will continue through midday Friday, then skies clear and temps reach the low 60s. 

Saturday the 60s are back, and rain chances return late Saturday afternoon into Sunday.  By Sunday afternoon, 1-2″ of rain is likely in Central Indiana with isolated spots picking up, up to 3″ of rain.

Sunday night much colder air moves in and light snow showers are possible into Monday.  We’ll keep you posted if accumulation is possible.  Much colder and more seasonal highs in the 30s will come our way next week.

Flooding possible as heavy rain moves in Thursday night

Rain moves into central Indiana Thursday afternoon and heavy downpours are likely Thursday night through Friday morning.

Rain moves into central Indiana Thursday afternoon and heavy downpours are likely Thursday night through Friday morning.

Thunderstorms will be likely on Saturday as strong cold front approaches and rain continues into Sunday.  1-2″ of rain is expected and will cause flooding.

Cooler air returns early next week and snow showers are likely next Monday.

Wet & Mild Weather Pattern Setting Up

Scattered showers are likely across Central Indiana this morning, but the rain will quickly move out.

Scattered showers are likely across Central Indiana this morning, but the rain will quickly move out.

Highs will reach the upper 40s with winds out of the west up to 15mph.

Tonight skies will be partly cloudy with lows dropping to the upper 20s.

Thursday scattered showers are likely as temps remain mild in the mid 40s.

Thursday night temps stay nearly steady in the low 40s with rain likely.

Friday temps could reach the upper 50s and low 60s with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Check out the 7 day forecast, rain is likely through Sunday, and we could see some rain turn to snow by Monday as much colder air moves in.

By Sunday, up to 2″ of rain is possible, I think some spots could see a few higher totals.

Warm-up brings rain later in the week

Most of our snow will melt by Friday. In addition to moisture from snow melt, we’ll see .50″ of rain Thursday.

Temperatures across central Indiana will stay above freezing for the next 4 nights and 5 days.

Most of our snow will melt by Friday. In addition to moisture from snow melt, we’ll see .50″ of rain Thursday.

Thunderstorms are possible Saturday with another 1″ of rain.

Warm-up on the way

High temperatures will stay in the 40s for the next three days and that will help us to melt the ice and snow still covering most of the area.

Our much anticipated warm up is on the way.

Patchy dense fog is likely Tuesday morning.

High temperatures will stay in the 40s for the next three days and that will help us to melt the ice and snow still covering most of the area.

Heavy rain moves in Thursday through Friday and thunderstorms will be possible this weekend. A total of 1-2” of rain is likely and the combination of rain and melting snow may cause flooding.

Saying So Long To Snowpack This Week

For now central Indiana remains covered in nearly 3″ of snow.  But an impressive January thaw this week will produce major melting.  This morning lows were the coldest they’ll be for sometime.

In fact, Terre Haute and Columbus briefly dropped into the single digits.  The combination of a clear sky, light wind and moisture from melted snow this weekend produced localized areas of freezing fog.  Enough in some communities to prompt school delays.

You can see the haze left behind in Greenfield in the picture above.  It will be neat to contrast this particular WeatherBug site with later this week as the snow melts away.

1km visible satellite imagery this morning clearly shows the snow field draped across Indiana and Ohio.

The snowpack will keep daytime highs seasonably cold in the mid 30s this afternoon, despite brilliant sunshine.

Lows tonight will drop into the lower 20s around Indianapolis, and upper teens in east-central Indiana.  Moisture from melted snow could help create new areas of freezing fog by Tuesday morning.

Highs Tuesday will be near 40 areawide, and should eclipse that mark in southern Indiana.

This is all part of major pattern shift for the eastern U.S., as unseasonably warm air builds underneath ridging in the upper levels.  Temperature anomalies Friday and Saturday will be some 25° above normal… and highs will make a serious charge at 60°+ Saturday!  The trade-off will be several waves of rain, and possibly thunder.

The first wave of low pressure/moisture arrives during the second-half of Thursday.  A second, and perhaps stronger, system arrives Saturday.  Combined the two have 1″-2″+ rainfall potential… so we’ll watch river levels closely with the expected snow melt.

Quite a week as temps go from the teens this morning to near 60° Saturday.  Sunday highs will occur prior to sunrise, and progressively fall as a frontal system moves through the state.  Have a great day and thanks for reading the blog.

Sean Ash – Twitter and Facebook

Chilly Start, Balmy Finish To Work Week

The pesky overcast will slowly, but surely, clear overnight and set the stage for our coldest temperatures over the next 7 days.

Lows tonight will dip into the mid teens, so definitely layer up the kids for the bus stop in the morning.  Thankfully we should enjoy a rather bright sky, but the warm up Monday will be modest.

Despite a good sunshine, highs will be seasonably cold in the low/mid 30s.

This too will be our coldest day for quite sometime, as the much advertised January Thaw builds during the rest of the work week.

In fact, by Friday and Saturday model guidance suggest temperatures will be some 25° above normal!  That would equate to highs making a serious run at 60° if true!  The image below shows the GFS ensemble mean temperature anomaly for Friday.  Look at the vast area that would experience much warmer than normal air.

This is also reflected in graph form below.  The meteogram shows just how long, and how much, above normal we could be later this week.

Also of note is the rather sharp drop in temps on Sunday… possibly going from near 60° to near freezing in 12 hours.  Don’t be fooled when you see the upper 50s for highs on Sunday in my 7day forecast.  That number would likely occur at/around midnight.  It does appear there will be a strong temperature gradient setting up over the Ohio Valley next weekend.  This could lead to heavy rain and even thunderstorms next Saturday.  As mentioned last night, 1″-2″+ rainfall potential exists in the Thursday through Saturday night time frame.

Stay with the SkyTrak weather team for potential changes to timing, rain amounts and temperatures for late week.  Have a great evening and thanks for reading the blog.

Sean Ash / Twitter and Facebook