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Archive for January, 2013

Jan
14

Flood Warnings and Cold Start To Work Week

Posted By · January 14, 2013 at 1:37 pm

Most rivers in central Indiana will remain out of their banks for several more days.  This is the result of melted snow and a month’s worth of rain packed into three days.

In fact, some SkyTrak 13 Weather Bug monthly rainfall totals exceed 5″, which is more than double the January average!

Until further notice the White, Wabash, Big Blue, Driftwood, East Fork of White, Mississinewa rivers are under Flood Warnings.  You can monitor river levels via the National Weather Service Indianapolis’ hydrology link here:

Hard to believe we’re just 48 hours removed from 60°+ highs.  January reality smacked us right in the face this morning, when lows were in the teens with single digit wind chills.

Highs today will struggle to hit the mid/upper 20s in most of the region… with cloud cover increasing from the southwest.  I’m not going to completely rule out some flurries (if not light snow) this evening.

The rest of the week will be rather quiet, though a few systems will near the Ohio River and bear watching for any deviation of track.  The morning run of the NAM model actually shows a few inches of snow accumulation for southern Indiana Thursday.  For now, it’s the northern most model… as the GFS  and Euro (not displayed below) only show flurries/light snow for areas south of I-70.

Today is our coldest day of the week, and Saturday appears to be the warmest with highs in the mid/upper 40s.  That brief warm up will be Fool’s Gold.  There is strong model consensus of a shot of much colder for early next week.

Below is the GFS mean ensemble temperature anomaly output for next Tuesday.  This shows deviations of greater than 10°F, and is only the mean.  Highs in the teens and lows in the single digits are possible Monday-Wednesday of next week.  Stay tuned as we track the progress of some of the coldest air of winter so far.

Have a day and thanks for reading the blog.

Sean Ash – Twitter / Facebook

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Jan
13

Soggy To Slick Tonight

Posted By · January 13, 2013 at 3:55 pm

Our latest round of heavy precipitation is slowly, but surely expected to depart central Indiana the next few hours.

Most of the day it’s been freezing rain in Lafayette, Terre Haute, Crawfordsville…where elevated surfaces are getting a light coating of ice.  Roads, for now, in western Indiana have been mainly wet.  The picture below is an example of the light icing in Lafayette from this afternoon.

That will change after sunset.  Temperatures in Indianapolis have dropped to 32°, and a transition to freezing rain and sleet will occur in the next hour or so.  At this point I envision only minor accumulations of ice/sleet/snow for majority of Indy metro area.  However, it’s a much different case heading west/northwest out of town… where temperatures have been colder longer and a .10″-.20″ is possible.

There also may be a quick shot of snow in northwest Indiana before precipitation wraps-up this evening.  Wouldn’t be shocked to see up to an inch for our far NW viewing area.

 

Everyone gets cold tonight, as lows plummet into the teens behind a cold front.  This ensures that any standing water will freeze overnight… and likely sets stage for a dicey/icy Monday morning commute.

Plan on extra time heading into work in the morning, and possible school delays due to icy roads too.  Most of the week is dry and seasonably cold.  With clear nights expected after tonight and a moisture-soaked ground, we could be in for several bouts of freezing fog.

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Jan
13

Rain Totals & Chance for Winter Weather Sunday

Posted By · January 13, 2013 at 5:30 am

As expected a soaking rain has left localized flooding across Central Indiana.  Saturday alone set a record for rain in Indianapolis.  The previous record of 1.19″ (1930) was broken by 1.28″ of rain falling at the Indianapolis International Airport.

Here are the 24 hour rain totals through 5:30am:

The 24 hour radar estimated totals through 5:30am are here:

We’ll see a break from the rain as we head into mid morning, but another round of light rain is possible this afternoon.  A Flood Watch is still in effect until this afternoon:

Flood Warnings will stay in place this week until rivers go down:

Temps will be falling as we head into the afternoon, so the rain will transition into a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, and even snow.  Up to 1″ of snow is possible.  However, the big takeaway from the forecast is that slick spots will be likely. 

Tonight temps fall into the teens, so any water on the roads could freeze creating a slick morning commute.  The wintry mix /snow will come to an end this evening, and the clouds break as we head towards midnight.

Monday, the sun returns, but temps won’t rebound above the freezing mark.

As of right now, no significant rain or snow is expected this week, the 7 day forecast looks quiet and dry.  It’s a chance for us to dry out.

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Jan
13

Strong Wind Gusts Possibly South Of Indy Tonight

Posted By · January 13, 2013 at 12:07 am

A strong line of storms is racing into southwestern Indiana, and has produced damaging wind in southern Illinois.  I’m not going to rule out wind gusts over 55mph for cities like Bloomington, Seymour, Bedford and Seymour.  The image below was a snapshot from around 12am Sunday.

The Storm Prediction Center is also monitoring this area for a potential Severe Thunderstorm Watch box.  Sean Ash and Nicole Misencik are the SkyTrak 13 weather center following the progress overnight, and will have updates as warranted.

Still expecting another 1″ to locally 2″ of rain overnight.  Lowland flooding and ponding of water on roads is very likely into Sunday morning.  Temps will fall into the 30s by 7am, but will also be followed by a lull in precipitation.  A secondary wave of low pressure will push a new surge of freezing rain/sleet/snow into central Indiana between 1pm-6pm.  Quick accumulation of any of the three is very possible, and roads may become slick Sunday night/early Monday morning as temperatures crash into the teens.

Stay tuned for the latest and thanks for reading the blog – Sean Ash

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Jan
12

Flooding Rain To Wintry Mix

Posted By · January 12, 2013 at 7:00 pm

The weather promises to be quite eventful the next 24 hours…beginning with the soaking rain that’s arrived and will linger the rest of tonight (along with rumbles of thunder).

Flood Watch is in effect for all of central Indiana until Sunday morning.  Street/lowland flooding is likely due to saturated ground, and an expected 2″ (locally 3″) of new rain between 7pm Saturday-7am Sunday.

Many rivers are also near/just above flood stage.  The latest NWS Indianapolis hydrologic forecast calls for 31 river gauges to be in flood the next few days.

Sunday morning the steadiest, heaviest rain will exit the state at/around 7am.  There may even be a lull in the action from mid-morning to midday.  However, an anticipate a burst of new precip between 1pm-6pm.  It’s difficult at this point to determine a dominant precip type… which would ultimately dictate if we’ll be shoveling a few quick inches of snow or skating on sleet/freezing rain.

But realize we need to be on guard Sunday afternoon for any one of freezing rain/sleet/snow… and possibly a heavy burst of either three during the aforementioned time frame.

Temperatures will slowly fall into the upper 30s by 8am, though most of tonight will spent in the 50s.  Roads may get icy Sunday night with temperatures plummeting into the teens.  So Monday morning commute could be dicey.

Cold start to next week and staying seasonably cold most of the next seven days.

Sean Ash – Twitter / Facebook

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Jan
12

Heavy Rain & Thunderstorms = Flood Watch Tonight

Posted By · January 12, 2013 at 6:18 am

A mild day is ahead with highs in the low 60s. 

Clouds will be on the increase and late this afternoon into tonight showers and thunderstorms develop that could bring flooding to Central Indiana.

A Flood Watch is in effect for Central Indiana tonight through Sunday morning.  One to three inches of rain is possible.  Make sure storm drains are clear from ice, piled up snow, and any debris.  Overnight temps fall into the upper 30s.

Sunday morning we’ll start off with a rain/snow mix, that will transition to light snow by the afternoon.  Sleet and freezing rain may mix in creating slick spots.  As of right now, up to 1″ of snow is possible as temps fall into the low 30s by the afternoon.  However, that will be cut down if we see freezing rain or sleet.  Bottom line, prepare for changing weather conditions and icy spots.

Monday we’re back to a dry forecast, and we stay cool through the 7 day.  It will be a time for Central Indiana to dry out from the soaking rain we will receive.

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Jan
11

Low pressure brings heavy rain this weekend; flooding possible

Posted By · January 11, 2013 at 5:01 pm

A strong area of low pressure will move across Indiana this weekend and up to two inches of rain is likely late Saturday through Sunday.

A Flood Warning continues for central Indiana through next week. Flooding near clogged drainage areas and along area rivers is likely by Sunday morning.

As temperatures fall on Sunday, rain will change to snow showers.

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Jan
11

Another Round Of Heavy Rain This Weekend

Posted By · January 11, 2013 at 1:17 pm

Welcome to the wettest day since mid-September, with rainfall totals from this morning’s deluge over an inch in spots.

Expect a decent break from downpours between now and Saturday evening, with the focus shifting to unseasonably warm air.  Highs this afternoon will come close to 60° across central Indiana… a good 20°-25° above normal.

No doubt you can feel the difference today, but take a look at the side-by-side comparison of the Greenfield Intermediate school camera.  The snapshot from left is Monday, and right was taken from today.  The January Thaw has eaten away all of the winter storm from late December.

Saturday begins rather cloudy, but dry.  So plenty of time tomorrow to enjoy the warmth before the sky opens-up tomorrow night.

Below are a series of the latest FutureTrak13 model.  Notice the leading of the rain shield approaching by 7pm Saturday.

There is a consensus most computer models of heavy, banded precipitation setting up over the viewing area Saturday evening.  Within this band an additional 2″ of rainfall potential exists.  Localized street flooding is a real threat Saturday night/early Sunday morning.  DO NOT drive around barricades or road blocks!

You can monitor river levels and river forecast levels here via the National Weather Service Indianapolis’ hydrologic site.

Have a great weekend!

Sean Ash – Twitter and Facebook

 

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