Archive for January, 2013
A few flurries are possible Wednesday as temperatures rise into the 20s. We’ll have sunny skies Thursday and light snow develops early Friday morning.
Snow will continue through Friday afternoon with a 2-4″ accumulation likely.
Cold and getting much colder the next 24 hours in central Indiana, as the core of arctic air blankets the Ohio Valley.
You could definitely feel the difference outside Sunday, with a steady diet of northwesterly wind delivering a 20°-25° temperature change compared to Saturday afternoon. Sunday was much colder, but as expected the true arctic air stayed just north of Indiana.
That changes on Monday as a secondary front sinks southward and delivers some of the coldest temperatures we’ve had in central Indiana in a couple of years.
Thankfully a blanket of clouds tonight and persistent northwest wind (10mph) will limit raditional cooling. Don’t get me wrong. Upper teens and a wind chill near zero will be cold in the morning… but it could be a lot worse. It will be a lot worse Tuesday morning when the coldest air is overhead, and we’re under a clear sky with lighter wind.
Several areas will make a serious run at zero Tuesday morning. Anything below 5° (low from January this year) will be our coldest temperature since February 2011. Wind chills will be dangerously cold in the -10° to -15° range for kids at the bus stop.
We’re still keeping tabs on the possibility of accumulating snow and/or sleet/freezing rain in the Thursday afternoon/early Friday time frame. It’s still entirely too early in the forecast game, but stay tuned for updates in the coming days.
For confidence remains high on another bout of frigid air returning in the wake of that system for next weekend. We’re in for the long haul regarding below normal temperatures.
Have a great evening and thanks for reading the blog.
After soaring into the lower 50s Saturday afternoon, the temperature pendulum swings in a much colder direction next week.
A strong southwest wind pushed temperatures up 15° to nearly 20° above normal. A wind shift associated with a cold front arrives after midnight, and will deliver the first installment of colder air for Sunday.
The air mass will be colder, but hardly considered “bitter” or “arctic”. Nonetheless, temperatures Sunday afternoon in the mid/upper 20s will be a good 20° to 25° colder than Saturday afternoon.
The true Arctic front doesn’t dive south of central Indiana until predawn Monday morning. This will unleash some of the coldest air we’ve endured in a few years. Though we did have a single digit low back in early January (with a 5″ snow pack), this will be a several day cold snap.
Temps Monday morning will range from near 10° above in Lafayette to mid-teens elsewhere. A steady diet of northwest wind keeps temps from budging much Monday. In fact, numbers should go single digit shortly after sunset Monday and pave for bitter cold start Tuesday morning.
Tuesday lows will be in the 0 to 3° above range, with a stinging wind chill of -10° to 15°! Wednesday and Thursday mornings likely will feature single digits lows as well.
Obviously bitter cold is a huge headline of the forecast. But we’re also circling Thursday/Friday for importance too. Long-range models suggest a mid-latitude system will bring a threat of accumulating snow and/or wintry mix. Based on the latest ensemble (takes average of all output of a model to eliminate extremes) output of the GFS (American), European and Canadian models (image below) I’m opting for more of a snow solution for central Indiana. The white line (540 line of 1000-500mb thickness) is a rough gauge of the rain/snow line. Keep in mind this is only one tool in forecasting precip type, and very subject to change. So stay tuned for updates down the road.
Buckle up for a temperature roller coaster ride the next 48-72 hours. We’re going up today and Saturday, and plummet early next week.
Under a blue sky this afternoon highs near 40° this afternoon, but a breezy southerly wind will make it feel more like 30°.
A warm, southwesterly wind continues to blow into Indiana Saturday… pushing temperatures close to 50° and a good 15° above normal. Notice the cold front lurking to our northwest. This is one in a series of cold fronts to impact the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region next week.
Front #1 serves as more of an appetizer to the true Arctic air that arrives Sunday night/Monday. Temperatures Sunday will remain mostly steady in the 20s. Notice the temperature in Chicago and Peoria stays steady in the teens! That’s the air mass that will be overhead Monday-Wednesday and cause temperature anomalies of 20°-25° below normal.
Those departures equal several days with highs in the teens and morning lows in the single digits. Also wind chills be well below zero Tuesday morning in the core of the cold air. The most impressive aspect of this air mass ( in my humble opinion) is getting single digits without snow pack in Indiana. Indianapolis plummeted to 5° above on January 2nd, but that was greatly aided by 5″ of snow on the ground. Bottom-line… it will be plenty cold, but could be much worse.
There will be some snow within the Arctic air advection. At this time it doesn’t appear significant, though we’ll have to monitor wind trajectory off of Lake Michigan. There is potential for lake squalls… especially north and northeast of Indianapolis. Keep in mind that even a little snow will make roads slick in that kind of cold.
Have a great weekend and thanks for reading the blog.
A strong cold front moves in Sunday with temps below freezing and a chance for accumulating snow Sunday night through Monday. The coldest air of the season arrives Tuesday with a low near 5 degrees and a high near 15.
Meanwhile, flood warnings continue for 12 counties and river levels are dropping.
A weak cold front will bring clouds and a flurry or two early on Thursday before skies clear after noon.
Milder air moves in this weekend with sunshine and highs in the mid-40s. A stronger system will bring light snow Sunday night and Monday and the coldest air of the season with lows near zero and highs in the teens on Tuesday.
After a cold start to the workweek, a slow warm up for central Indiana starts Wednesday. We’ll have two days with highs in the 30s before rising into the 40s on Friday and Saturday. The warmer air will soften the ground and make it easier for our floodwaters to recede. River flood warnings continue for 21 counties across central Indiana. Area waterways are 4-6′ above flood stage and flooding is likely for the rest of the week. Most rivers have crested and have started to fall.
We’ll stay dry for the next 2 days before a chance for snow comes for the southern half of the state on Thursday.