Dry Saturday & Freezing Rain Sunday

Today will be cold and dry, but a big change comes our way Sunday when freezing rain could bring slick conditions to Central Indiana.

Today will be cold and dry, but a big change comes our way Sunday when freezing rain could bring slick conditions to Central Indiana.

Highs will reach the mid to upper 20s today with mostly sunny skies.  A light north breeze will be with us most of the day.

Tonight a few clouds move in as temps drop to around 17 degrees.

Sunday we have a big change moving in.  A wintry mix including sleet, rain and freezing rain will be possible starting midday.  With ground temps well below freezing, slick spots will be possible even though the air temp will eventually warm above freezing.  Light icing with up to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation is possible.  Roads will become slick.  We’ll watch this system very closely as we head into the second half of your weekend. 

As we head into Sunday night temps continue to rise, so any kind of freezing precip will change to all rain.

Rain will be likely Monday and Tuesday, with a few thunderstorms possible on Tuesday as highs approach the 60 degree mark!

Don’t get too comfortable with the warmth, by Wednesday temps fall with a rain/snow mix and we’re back to single digit lows by Friday morning.

 

Light Snow Today… Near 60 Next Week

Light snow is expected across Central Indiana today with snow totals ranging from a dusting to up to 2″ of snow by lunch time today.

Light snow is expected across Central Indiana today with snow totals ranging from a dusting to up to 2″ of snow by lunch time today.

Snow will be falling throughout the morning commute, and will likely bring slick spots to area roads.

Highs will reach the upper 20s today with drier weather expected the later we head into the afternoon.

Tonight temps drop to the teens with partly cloudy skies.

Saturday we will be dry, but highs will stay below our average high in the mid 30s.  Temps Saturday will only reach the mid 20s.

Sunday we finally get to the freezing mark, but late Sunday afternoon into the evening a wintry mix including freezing rain is possible.  We will be keeping a close eye on the exact precip expected as we get closer to Sunday night.

Much warmer air arrives Monday, and rain is likely.

A big roller coaster ride is coming our way in the 7 day… from temps near 60 to temps in the teens, we’ve got it all!

Snow moves in Friday

Our Friday will begin with light snow for the morning rush hour. 1-2″ is likely by Noon with up to 3″ possible aross east central Indiana.

Our Friday will begin with light snow for the morning rush hour. 1-2″ is likely by Noon with up to 3″ possible aross east central Indiana. Snow ends after midday and we’ll stay dry through Saturday. Heavier moisture moves in Sunday when we expect a sleet/freezing rain/rain mix.

Flurries Today… Accumulating Snow Friday

Bundle up! Wind chills are in the single digits this morning with a chance for flurries.

Bundle up!  Wind chills are in the single digits this morning with a chance for flurries.

Highs will reach the low 20s today with sunshine as we head into the afternoon.

Tonight, clouds will be on the increase with temps holding steady in the teens.

Friday snow will be likely from about 7am to noon with 1-2″ of accumulation possible.

We will dry out Friday afternoon, but temps will still remain below freezing.

The 7 day forecast warms up, but we have big changes coming our way.  Sunday afternoon a rain/sleet mix develops, and we could see a brief period of freezing rain as we head into Monday morning.  We’re back in the 50s by Tuesday but rain looks likely.

Light snow on the way

Thursday will be a quiet day with highs in the 20s. Light snow is likely by 2am Friday and we’ll see a 1-2″ accumulation by noon.

Thursday will be a quiet day with highs in the 20s.

Light snow is likely by 2am Friday and we’ll see a 1-2″ accumulation by noon.

We’ll have a dry Saturday and more light snow is likely on Sunday.

Next week we warm up and go from snow to heavy rain that will cause flooding.

Light Snow Possible Today

Frigid temps remain across Central Indiana with a chance of light snow this afternoon into this evening.

Frigid temps remain across Central Indiana with a chance of light snow this afternoon into this evening.

Highs will only reach the low to mid 20s today with wind chills in the teens.  Flurries and light snow showers will develop this afternoon and evening.  Up to 1″ of snow may be possible from the Indy metro area and spots north and east.  We’ll be watching the forecast closely, but with temps below freezing, slick spots are possible with just a light coating of snow.

Tonight temps fall into the single digits at about 8 degrees with flurries coming to an end.  Winds will gust out of the northwest up to 25mph.

Thursday highs reach the low to mid 20s with increasing clouds.

Late Thursday night into Friday morning light accumulating snow is possible.  As of right now at least an inch of snow looks likely, with some spots picking up, up to 3 inches of snow.  Stay tuned because those totals will likely change as this system continues to develop.

If you want warmer weather… look into next week… temps are back in the 40s with a chance of rain!

Accumulating snow Friday

Another round of accumulating snow is on the way.

Another round of accumulating snow is on the way.

A few flurries are possible Wednesday as temperatures rise into the 20s. We’ll have sunny skies Thursday and light snow develops early Friday morning.

Snow will continue through Friday afternoon with a 2-4″ accumulation likely.

Coldest Temps In A Few Years On The Way

Cold and getting much colder the next 24 hours in central Indiana, as the core of arctic air blankets the Ohio Valley.

You could definitely feel the difference outside Sunday, with a steady diet of northwesterly wind delivering a 20°-25° temperature change compared to Saturday afternoon.  Sunday was much colder, but as expected the true arctic air stayed just north of Indiana.

That changes on Monday as a secondary front sinks southward and delivers some of the coldest temperatures we’ve had in central Indiana in a couple of years.

Thankfully a blanket of clouds tonight and persistent northwest wind (10mph) will limit raditional cooling.  Don’t get me wrong.  Upper teens and a wind chill near zero will be cold in the morning… but it could be a lot worse.  It will be a lot worse Tuesday morning when the coldest air is overhead, and we’re under a clear sky with lighter wind.

Several areas will make a serious run at zero Tuesday morning.  Anything below 5° (low from January this year) will be our coldest temperature since February 2011.  Wind chills will be dangerously cold in the -10° to -15° range for kids at the bus stop.

We’re still keeping tabs on the possibility of accumulating snow and/or sleet/freezing rain in the Thursday afternoon/early Friday time frame.  It’s still entirely too early in the forecast game, but stay tuned for updates in the coming days.

For confidence remains high on another bout of frigid air returning in the wake of that system for next weekend.  We’re in for the long haul regarding below normal temperatures.

Have a great evening and thanks for reading the blog.

Sean Ash

50s Saturday to Single Digits And Snow in 7day

After soaring into the lower 50s Saturday afternoon, the temperature pendulum swings in a much colder direction next week.

A strong southwest wind pushed temperatures up 15° to nearly 20° above normal.  A wind shift associated with a cold front arrives after midnight, and will deliver the first installment of colder air for Sunday.

The air mass will be colder, but hardly considered “bitter” or “arctic”.  Nonetheless, temperatures Sunday afternoon in the mid/upper 20s will be a good 20° to 25° colder than Saturday afternoon.

The true Arctic front doesn’t dive south of central Indiana until predawn Monday morning.  This will unleash some of the coldest air we’ve endured in a few years.  Though we did have a single digit low back in early January (with a 5″ snow pack), this will be a several day cold snap.

Temps Monday morning will range from near 10° above in Lafayette to mid-teens elsewhere.  A steady diet of northwest wind keeps temps from budging much Monday.  In fact, numbers should go single digit shortly after sunset Monday and pave for bitter cold start Tuesday morning.

Tuesday lows will be in the 0 to 3° above range, with a stinging wind chill of -10° to 15°!  Wednesday and Thursday mornings likely will feature single digits lows as well.

Obviously bitter cold is a huge headline of the forecast.  But we’re also circling Thursday/Friday for importance too.  Long-range models suggest a mid-latitude system will bring a threat of accumulating snow and/or wintry mix.  Based on the latest ensemble (takes average of all output of a model to eliminate extremes) output of the GFS (American), European and Canadian models (image below) I’m opting for more of a snow solution for central Indiana.  The white line (540 line of 1000-500mb thickness) is a rough gauge of the rain/snow line.   Keep in mind this is only one tool in forecasting precip type, and very subject to change.  So stay tuned for updates down the road.

 

 

Brief Warm Up Before Arctic Invasion

Buckle up for a temperature roller coaster ride the next 48-72 hours.  We’re going up today and Saturday, and plummet early next week.

Under a blue sky this afternoon highs near 40° this afternoon, but a breezy southerly wind will make it feel more like 30°.

A warm, southwesterly wind continues to blow into Indiana Saturday… pushing temperatures close to 50° and a good 15° above normal.  Notice the cold front lurking to our northwest.  This is one in a series of cold fronts to impact the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region next week.

Front #1 serves as more of an appetizer to the true Arctic air that arrives Sunday night/Monday.  Temperatures Sunday will remain mostly steady in the 20s.  Notice the temperature in Chicago and Peoria stays steady in the teens!  That’s the air mass that will be overhead Monday-Wednesday and cause temperature anomalies of 20°-25° below normal.

Those departures equal several days with highs in the teens and morning lows in the single digits.  Also wind chills be well below zero Tuesday morning in the core of the cold air.  The most impressive aspect of this air mass ( in my humble opinion) is getting single digits without snow pack in Indiana.  Indianapolis plummeted to 5° above on January 2nd, but that was greatly aided by 5″ of snow on the ground.  Bottom-line… it will be plenty cold, but could be much worse.

There will be some snow within the Arctic air advection.  At this time it doesn’t appear significant, though we’ll have to monitor wind trajectory off of Lake Michigan.  There is potential for lake squalls… especially north and northeast of Indianapolis.  Keep in mind that even a little snow will make roads slick in that kind of cold.

Have a great weekend and thanks for reading the blog.

Sean Ash – Twitter / Facebook