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Archive for January, 2013

Jan
27

From Freezing Rain to Severe Thunderstorms

Posted By · January 27, 2013 at 6:52 am

We’ve got everything in the 7 day forecast including freezing rain… snow… and even the threat of severe thunderstorms.

Today our focus is on freezing rain.  Highs will slowly warm into the mid 30s.  We’ll be mainly dry until 2pm, that’s when freezing rain/rain will start to develop.

A freezing rain advisory is in effect from 3pm to 7pm north of I-70.  In the area highlighted in pink, up to .25″ of ice is possible.  I’m not ruling out freezing rain in the metro area, use extra care and if you’re traveling icy spots will be possible until temps warm above freezing.

Tonight temps will continue to climb after midnight, and rain will be likely Monday with temps in the low 50s.

Tuesday rain will continue with highs in the low 60s.  I am concerned about Tuesday night.  Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with damaging wind and very heavy rain that could lead to localized flooding.  By Wednesday morning 1-2″ of rain is likely.

Wednesday morning we’ll start with temps in the 50s and end the day in the 30s with rain changing to a wintry mix.

A lot happens in the 7 day… stay tuned to the forecast!

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Jan
26

Icy Roads Possible Sunday

Posted By · January 26, 2013 at 8:03 pm

I don’t envision this being a big deal for the Indy metro area and points southward…where most of what falls will mainly be a cold rain.  However, roads north of the I-70 corridor (where sub-surface remains <32°) may get icy for a few hours Sunday afternoon/evening within an area of sleet/freezing rain between 2pm-8pm.

Majority of viewing area will see well less than a .10″ of ice.  But a slower warm up north of a Lafeyette-Kokomo-Munice line have a potential for over .10″ of ice.  As a result we’ll have to monitor Sunday evening temperatures to track the progress of warm air advection.

For now, cities like Monticello, Logansport, Marion, Peru, and Hartford City are in a Winter Weather Advisory that begins at 3pm Sunday and runs until 12am Monday.  This is a very changeable forecast for all areas…with 1° or 2° making a big difference on the outcome for most locations.  I encourage to stay with us for the latest developments.

Indianapolis should climb above 32° by 5pm, and slowly but surely make it to the upper 30s by midnight.  Areas north of the city will take longer, hence the greater risk for icy roads.

You can see the progression on FutureTrak 13.  A dry start with increasing clouds.  Leading edge of moisture arrives after 12pm and before 7pm…and will fall initially as mixed precipitation.  After sunset it’s just a cold rain with temperatures continuing to rise after dark.

Official Sunday highs will occur just prior to midnight, and mark the beginning of a balmy 48 hour stretch.  Most importantly this means roads will only be wet for the Monday morning commute.

Tuesday morning starts in the 50s and will end in the 60s!  This is all part of a brief shot of unseasonably warm air across the Ohio Valley.

Look at the large area of 20°F temperature anomalies for Tuesday!

But notice how quickly will drop well below normal Friday.

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

This transition from warm to cold will produce heavy rain along a cold front Tuesday night.  Widespread 1.50″-2″ rain amounts are likely by late Wednesday morning…putting river flooding back in play for later next week.

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

The front will also be accompanied by extreme wind shear that exceeds 80 miles per hour (image is difference in wind from surface to midway up atmosphere).  This is sufficient enough to warrant thunder and damaging wind potential Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning despite very limited instability.

That heavy rain ends as a period of snow (accumulation possible) Wednesday afternoon.  But this marks a change to much colder air.  Our latest Arctic front arrives Thursday with snow squall potential, and single digit lows Friday morning!

Yes…everything including the kitchen sink in our weather this week!

Thanks for making it this far and hope you enjoy my analysis.  Questions/comments are always welcomed on Facebook or Twitter.

Have a great evening!

Sean Ash

 

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Jan
26

Dry Saturday & Freezing Rain Sunday

Posted By · January 26, 2013 at 6:30 am

Today will be cold and dry, but a big change comes our way Sunday when freezing rain could bring slick conditions to Central Indiana.

Highs will reach the mid to upper 20s today with mostly sunny skies.  A light north breeze will be with us most of the day.

Tonight a few clouds move in as temps drop to around 17 degrees.

Sunday we have a big change moving in.  A wintry mix including sleet, rain and freezing rain will be possible starting midday.  With ground temps well below freezing, slick spots will be possible even though the air temp will eventually warm above freezing.  Light icing with up to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation is possible.  Roads will become slick.  We’ll watch this system very closely as we head into the second half of your weekend. 

As we head into Sunday night temps continue to rise, so any kind of freezing precip will change to all rain.

Rain will be likely Monday and Tuesday, with a few thunderstorms possible on Tuesday as highs approach the 60 degree mark!

Don’t get too comfortable with the warmth, by Wednesday temps fall with a rain/snow mix and we’re back to single digit lows by Friday morning.

 

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Jan
25

Light Snow Today… Near 60 Next Week

Posted By · January 25, 2013 at 5:09 am

Light snow is expected across Central Indiana today with snow totals ranging from a dusting to up to 2″ of snow by lunch time today.

Snow will be falling throughout the morning commute, and will likely bring slick spots to area roads.

Highs will reach the upper 20s today with drier weather expected the later we head into the afternoon.

Tonight temps drop to the teens with partly cloudy skies.

Saturday we will be dry, but highs will stay below our average high in the mid 30s.  Temps Saturday will only reach the mid 20s.

Sunday we finally get to the freezing mark, but late Sunday afternoon into the evening a wintry mix including freezing rain is possible.  We will be keeping a close eye on the exact precip expected as we get closer to Sunday night.

Much warmer air arrives Monday, and rain is likely.

A big roller coaster ride is coming our way in the 7 day… from temps near 60 to temps in the teens, we’ve got it all!

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Jan
24

Snow moves in Friday

Posted By · January 24, 2013 at 5:47 pm

Our Friday will begin with light snow for the morning rush hour. 1-2″ is likely by Noon with up to 3″ possible aross east central Indiana. Snow ends after midday and we’ll stay dry through Saturday. Heavier moisture moves in Sunday when we expect a sleet/freezing rain/rain mix.

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Jan
24

Flurries Today… Accumulating Snow Friday

Posted By · January 24, 2013 at 4:59 am

Bundle up!  Wind chills are in the single digits this morning with a chance for flurries.

Highs will reach the low 20s today with sunshine as we head into the afternoon.

Tonight, clouds will be on the increase with temps holding steady in the teens.

Friday snow will be likely from about 7am to noon with 1-2″ of accumulation possible.

We will dry out Friday afternoon, but temps will still remain below freezing.

The 7 day forecast warms up, but we have big changes coming our way.  Sunday afternoon a rain/sleet mix develops, and we could see a brief period of freezing rain as we head into Monday morning.  We’re back in the 50s by Tuesday but rain looks likely.

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Jan
23

Light snow on the way

Posted By · January 23, 2013 at 6:25 pm

Thursday will be a quiet day with highs in the 20s.

Light snow is likely by 2am Friday and we’ll see a 1-2″ accumulation by noon.

We’ll have a dry Saturday and more light snow is likely on Sunday.

Next week we warm up and go from snow to heavy rain that will cause flooding.

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Jan
23

Light Snow Possible Today

Posted By · January 23, 2013 at 6:02 am

Frigid temps remain across Central Indiana with a chance of light snow this afternoon into this evening.

Highs will only reach the low to mid 20s today with wind chills in the teens.  Flurries and light snow showers will develop this afternoon and evening.  Up to 1″ of snow may be possible from the Indy metro area and spots north and east.  We’ll be watching the forecast closely, but with temps below freezing, slick spots are possible with just a light coating of snow.

Tonight temps fall into the single digits at about 8 degrees with flurries coming to an end.  Winds will gust out of the northwest up to 25mph.

Thursday highs reach the low to mid 20s with increasing clouds.

Late Thursday night into Friday morning light accumulating snow is possible.  As of right now at least an inch of snow looks likely, with some spots picking up, up to 3 inches of snow.  Stay tuned because those totals will likely change as this system continues to develop.

If you want warmer weather… look into next week… temps are back in the 40s with a chance of rain!

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