I don’t envision this being a big deal for the Indy metro area and points southward…where most of what falls will mainly be a cold rain. However, roads north of the I-70 corridor (where sub-surface remains <32°) may get icy for a few hours Sunday afternoon/evening within an area of sleet/freezing rain between 2pm-8pm.
Majority of viewing area will see well less than a .10″ of ice. But a slower warm up north of a Lafeyette-Kokomo-Munice line have a potential for over .10″ of ice. As a result we’ll have to monitor Sunday evening temperatures to track the progress of warm air advection.
For now, cities like Monticello, Logansport, Marion, Peru, and Hartford City are in a Winter Weather Advisory that begins at 3pm Sunday and runs until 12am Monday. This is a very changeable forecast for all areas…with 1° or 2° making a big difference on the outcome for most locations. I encourage to stay with us for the latest developments.
Indianapolis should climb above 32° by 5pm, and slowly but surely make it to the upper 30s by midnight. Areas north of the city will take longer, hence the greater risk for icy roads.
You can see the progression on FutureTrak 13. A dry start with increasing clouds. Leading edge of moisture arrives after 12pm and before 7pm…and will fall initially as mixed precipitation. After sunset it’s just a cold rain with temperatures continuing to rise after dark.
Official Sunday highs will occur just prior to midnight, and mark the beginning of a balmy 48 hour stretch. Most importantly this means roads will only be wet for the Monday morning commute.
Tuesday morning starts in the 50s and will end in the 60s! This is all part of a brief shot of unseasonably warm air across the Ohio Valley.
Look at the large area of 20°F temperature anomalies for Tuesday!
But notice how quickly will drop well below normal Friday.
CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE
This transition from warm to cold will produce heavy rain along a cold front Tuesday night. Widespread 1.50″-2″ rain amounts are likely by late Wednesday morning…putting river flooding back in play for later next week.
CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE
The front will also be accompanied by extreme wind shear that exceeds 80 miles per hour (image is difference in wind from surface to midway up atmosphere). This is sufficient enough to warrant thunder and damaging wind potential Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning despite very limited instability.
That heavy rain ends as a period of snow (accumulation possible) Wednesday afternoon. But this marks a change to much colder air. Our latest Arctic front arrives Thursday with snow squall potential, and single digit lows Friday morning!
Yes…everything including the kitchen sink in our weather this week!
Thanks for making it this far and hope you enjoy my analysis. Questions/comments are always welcomed on Facebook or Twitter.
Have a great evening!