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Archive for December, 2012

Dec
16

Mild Sunday with Highs Near 60!

Posted By · December 16, 2012 at 5:19 am

Temps will push close to 60 degrees today, but if you’re craving snow, we might just have a chance in the 7 day forecast.

The normal high for today is near 38 degrees, and the record is 65 set back in 1984.  Today highs will reach about 60 degrees wind winds out of the southwest up to 20mph.  We’ll see a mix of sun and clouds, and a slight chance of drizzle.  Most spots stay absolutely dry.

For the first 15 days of December, we are running the 4th warmest start on record with an average high temp of 44.6 degrees.

Tonight clouds will be on the increase, as temps fall to the upper 30s.

Monday, highs still remain above average in the upper 40s. 

There’s a 30% chance for spotty showers.  We won’t see a washout, and only light rain is expected.

It seems like we’ve seen a soggy December, but we are almost right on target for December rainfall.  That said, we are still running more than four inches below normal for the year.

If you’re craving winter, we’ve got some coming in the 7 day forecast.  Thursday looks soggy, temps fall late in the day, and by Friday we could be tracking light snow.  Stay tuned for the timing and any other changes as we make adjustements closer to the end of the week.

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Dec
15

Nearing 60° Sunday!

Posted By · December 15, 2012 at 7:39 pm

Temperatures continue to creep up this evening…as balmy, saturated air pushes into Central Indiana.  This is resulting in areas of drizzle/light rain, and unseasonably mild lows in the 50s.

It’s certainly not a pretty picture from HD Skycam tonight.  Pockets of dampness will linger into Sunday morning, but I do expect some improvement by the afternoon… possibly even some peeks of sunshine.  The balmy start, persistent southwest wind, and even minimal solar radiation will allow highs to near 60°!

To put this into perspective.  The high will be closer to the record of 65° (1984), than the average of 38°!  “If” Indianapolis hits 60°, it would be the 5th time this month.

Areas south of I-70 and east of I-65 have the best shot of of eclipsing the 60°.  Regardless it’s going to be well above normal in all backyards across the viewing area.

We’re keeping a close eye on Monday night/predawn Tuesday morning for the possibility of a period snow.

The latest FutureTrak 13 model data suggests rain will increase Monday afternoon along the I-70 corridor.  The moisture will team-up with a strengthening upper-level disturbance and cold air.  This may cause the rain to mix or changeover to all snow after sunset Monday.  Confidence is low on this scenario, but it’s a model trend we’re watching for progression.

Another storm shows up in the 7day forecast on Thursday.

(Click to enlarge)  On this model projected path it would be more of a rain/wind maker for Central Indiana…with the heavy snow band impacting the western Great Lakes.  But confidence is growing on this storm dragging in much colder air Friday and into next weekend.  To be determined if this will be a prolonged cold spell, or the beginning of an active storm pattern in the GL/OHV (Great Lakes/Ohio Valley).  Or both?!

Thanks for reading the blog and hope you enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Sean Ash / Follow on Facebook or Twitter if you like.

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Dec
14

Sun Today, Showers Tomorrow

Posted By · December 14, 2012 at 7:29 am

Another bright, blue sky to greet you after 8am this morning.  Temperatures are running about 5° warmer than Thursday mornings pace.  A warmer start will lead to a warmer finish.

Highs today will top 50° in many backyards in Central Indiana.  This will be the 6th day in December at or above 50°, which matches the monthly average!  This all part of an unseasonably warm month, where the average temperature of 44.7° is over 10° above normal.

A storm system currently over the southwestern United States will make quite a move over the next 24 hours… rapidly pushing a shield of rain into the state by late morning Saturday.  For now it appears the timing of highest rain chances will be from 10am to 4pm Saturday.

Current modeling indicates the steadiest, most widespread rain should pivot east of the state by Saturday evening.  This will pave the way for mostly dry conditions the rest of the weekend.  The biggest change you’ll notice in the 7day forecast is the upgraded high temperature on Sunday.  The aforementioned storm system will move farther north, as opposed to east, and delay the passage of a cool front.  This will allow a persistent southwest wind to push daytime highs to near 60° Sunday afternoon!  The record for the day is 65°.  That should be safe, but temperatures will be a good 20° above normal!

Have a great day and even better weekend!

Sean Ash

Follow on Facebook or Twitter if you like.

 

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Dec
13

Sunny Friday, soggy weekend?

Posted By · December 13, 2012 at 5:37 pm

We’ll have one more dry day on Friday with a high near 50 degrees. A cold front brings rain on Saturday and up to .50″ of rain is likely. I am predicting ten, one-inch snows this winter and we may see our first one next Tuesday when a rain/snow mix is possible. Let’s keep our fingers crossed for snow.

 

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Dec
13

Warming Trend Continues

Posted By · December 13, 2012 at 7:53 am

Another chilly start in the 20s this morning, but sunshine from start to finish will quickly warm temperatures.  Dry air, full sunshine and a south-southwest wind will lead to a 20° swing for lows to highs.

Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 40s, and some 5°-10° above the average of 39°.  Under a clear sky expect a rather quick drop this evening and overnight.  Lows Friday morning will back in the chilly 20s.

With highs in the 50s and more sunshine, it’s to understand why Friday is my pick of the week.  High clouds come into play during the late afternoon and evening… and serve as a hint of changes on the way for the weekend.

We’re on borrowed time Saturday morning when it comes to dry weather.  Latest model data suggests it’s cloudy, but dry at 7am.

All bets are off for dry weather by noon Saturday, as rain with embedded thunder charge into the state.  For now it appears areas east of I-65 may have to wait until afternoon to get wet Saturday.

Rain is likely Saturday afternoon, but despite clouds and sogginess… temperatures remain above normal near 50°.

Sunday should be the drier day this weekend, with only a chance of showers.   We’re keeping our eyes on a system next week that may produce some snow around the viewing area Tuesday.  Long range guidance suggests any snow would be light, but confidence beyond four days is low… due to uncertainty in model performance.  Stay tuned.

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Dec
12

Warming Up… Again

Posted By · December 12, 2012 at 7:51 am

Are you looking for December weather?  It’s not in Central Indiana!

Highs will reach the low to mid 40s today with mostly sunny skies.

Tonight we’re in for another cold one as lows dip into the low 20s outside of the Indy metro, in Indy, temps will fall to the mid 20s.

Thursday we’re back in the upper 40s and by Friday the low 50s!

Our next chance of rain moves in for the weekend.  Saturday looks soggy with temps in the 40s.  A chance of rain sticks around for Sunday too.

Cooler air moves in next week behind the rain.

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Dec
11

Temps drop overnight

Posted By · December 11, 2012 at 5:48 pm

Without clouds acting like a blanket tonight, temperatures will drop to some of the coldest levels of the season.  Lows in Indianapolis will near 23, and rural areas should drop into the teens. The average high this time of year is 40 degrees. A warm up begins Wednesday and continues through Friday. Sunny skies will cause high temperatures to rise from the  mid-40s to the low-50s. Rain moves in over the weekend and a rain/snow mix is possible Sunday as temperatures fall.

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Dec
10

Warmer air on the way

Posted By · December 10, 2012 at 7:38 pm

We should have had 2.5″ of snow by this point in the season but we’ve been way too warm. Our average high is 40 degrees and after a cold start, much warmer air is on the way. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 30s but we’ll warm into the 50s by the end of the week.

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