Light rain, fog on the way for Tuesday

Light rain and dense fog are likely through Tuesday morning.

Light rain and dense fog are likely through Tuesday morning. A few flurries will also be possible before skies clear in the afternoon.

Our average date of first snow in November 19th. On November 12th we had two-tenths of an inch and that’s all we’ve had this season.

We should have had four inches of snow by this point in the season. We’ll have rain changing to snow on Thursday. Let’s hope for some accumulation.

Foggy Start… Soggy Finish

Patchy dense fog is likely in Central Indiana this morning. It will be thicker south of I-70.

Patchy dense fog is likely in Central Indiana this morning.  It will be thicker south of I-70.

Highs will reach the upper 40s today with spotty showers developing this afternoon into this evening.

Overnight a few snowflakes may mix in with rain drops as the showers come to an end and temps fall into the mid 30s.

Sunshine and temps in the 50s are back for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Our day of chance arrives Thursday.  Stay tuned to the forecast as we continue to fine tune it closer to the end of the week.  As of right now, we’ll start Thursday off with temps in the upper 40s scattered showers and even isolated thunderstorms.  Temps will fall into the afternoon and the rain will begin to mix with snow.  As of right now, we could see some light snow accumulation Thursday evening or Thursday night. 

Behind the wet weather will be very cold temps.  Friday morning we’ll wake up to temps in the 20s and possible single digit wind chills!

From Near 60 To Single Digit Wind Chill?

Quite a roller coaster temperature ride set for Central Indiana this week.  We expect a transition from the balmy highs today, to legit cold air Thursday afternoon.

The high of 56° Sunday actually occurred at 4am.  Though we missed out on officially hitting 60°, temperatures were a good 15°-20° above normal… which has been par for the course this month.

Average temperatures for December 1st-15th is 44.6°, which is good for 4th warmest on record during that time for Indianapolis.

Monday will be yet another day above normal, despite clouds and increasing rain chance in the afternoon.

Expect morning lows near 40° with a gradual warm up into the upper 40s.  Morning clouds have more bark than bite.  As better lift interacts with an approaching front showers will break out by the time you’re heading home from work.

Monday night the atmosphere will be nearly cold enough to support frozen precipitation.  But at this moment I believe most of what falls over Central Indiana will be a cold rain.  Could a few wet flakes mix in?  Sure, but it would require more sufficient lift to cool the parcel.  For now I don’t see that happening, but will monitor the transition the next 24 hours.

On the flip-side, confidence is growing on a strong cold front/mid-latitude storm to impact the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Thursday.  Current modeling consensus takes the center of the storm north of Central Indiana…placing the viewing area on the warmer side of the storm.  (Click to enlarge the image below of model output at 1pm Thursday)

If this track verifies: (and if this storm actually happens) heavy rain, wind, a sharp temperature tumble  and snow showers would be the main impacts.

This IS NOT a heavy snow track for Central Indiana.  Above is the latest GFS model snowfall output, and the potential snow swath sticks out like a sore thumb.  Granted this model is bullish on 10″+ totals, but the idea is that the heaviest snow occurs to the northwest of the low track.

In the storm’s warm sector early Thursday temperatures would shoot into the 50s and then crash into the low 30s/upper 20s by sunset Thursday.  The graph below is a meteogram and depicts the polar plunge, and “potential single digit wind chills” Friday morning!

Bottom-line… if you’re not a fan of cold I suggest enjoying the sunshine Tuesday and Wednesday with highs near 50.

 

This cold shot may hang for a few days, with highs in the 30s into the weekend and lows near 20.  Enjoy the work week.

Sean Ash / Follow on Facebook and Twitter if you like.

NO GO ON 60° TODAY

Though impressively warm for this time of year, temperatures will not hit 60°.

Temperatures are still a good 15°-20° above normal for December 16th.  The nose of the warmest air pushed about 70 miles east of the Indy metro area, where Cincy and Columbus are sitting at 60°.

An updated long-range forecast coming shortly.

Mild Sunday with Highs Near 60!

Temps will push close to 60 degrees today, but if you’re craving snow, we might just have a chance in the 7 day forecast.

Temps will push close to 60 degrees today, but if you’re craving snow, we might just have a chance in the 7 day forecast.

The normal high for today is near 38 degrees, and the record is 65 set back in 1984.  Today highs will reach about 60 degrees wind winds out of the southwest up to 20mph.  We’ll see a mix of sun and clouds, and a slight chance of drizzle.  Most spots stay absolutely dry.

For the first 15 days of December, we are running the 4th warmest start on record with an average high temp of 44.6 degrees.

Tonight clouds will be on the increase, as temps fall to the upper 30s.

Monday, highs still remain above average in the upper 40s. 

There’s a 30% chance for spotty showers.  We won’t see a washout, and only light rain is expected.

It seems like we’ve seen a soggy December, but we are almost right on target for December rainfall.  That said, we are still running more than four inches below normal for the year.

If you’re craving winter, we’ve got some coming in the 7 day forecast.  Thursday looks soggy, temps fall late in the day, and by Friday we could be tracking light snow.  Stay tuned for the timing and any other changes as we make adjustements closer to the end of the week.

Nearing 60° Sunday!

Temperatures continue to creep up this evening…as balmy, saturated air pushes into Central Indiana.  This is resulting in areas of drizzle/light rain, and unseasonably mild lows in the 50s.

It’s certainly not a pretty picture from HD Skycam tonight.  Pockets of dampness will linger into Sunday morning, but I do expect some improvement by the afternoon… possibly even some peeks of sunshine.  The balmy start, persistent southwest wind, and even minimal solar radiation will allow highs to near 60°!

To put this into perspective.  The high will be closer to the record of 65° (1984), than the average of 38°!  “If” Indianapolis hits 60°, it would be the 5th time this month.

Areas south of I-70 and east of I-65 have the best shot of of eclipsing the 60°.  Regardless it’s going to be well above normal in all backyards across the viewing area.

We’re keeping a close eye on Monday night/predawn Tuesday morning for the possibility of a period snow.

The latest FutureTrak 13 model data suggests rain will increase Monday afternoon along the I-70 corridor.  The moisture will team-up with a strengthening upper-level disturbance and cold air.  This may cause the rain to mix or changeover to all snow after sunset Monday.  Confidence is low on this scenario, but it’s a model trend we’re watching for progression.

Another storm shows up in the 7day forecast on Thursday.

(Click to enlarge)  On this model projected path it would be more of a rain/wind maker for Central Indiana…with the heavy snow band impacting the western Great Lakes.  But confidence is growing on this storm dragging in much colder air Friday and into next weekend.  To be determined if this will be a prolonged cold spell, or the beginning of an active storm pattern in the GL/OHV (Great Lakes/Ohio Valley).  Or both?!

Thanks for reading the blog and hope you enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Sean Ash / Follow on Facebook or Twitter if you like.

Sun Today, Showers Tomorrow

Another bright, blue sky to greet you after 8am this morning.  Temperatures are running about 5° warmer than Thursday mornings pace.  A warmer start will lead to a warmer finish.

Highs today will top 50° in many backyards in Central Indiana.  This will be the 6th day in December at or above 50°, which matches the monthly average!  This all part of an unseasonably warm month, where the average temperature of 44.7° is over 10° above normal.

A storm system currently over the southwestern United States will make quite a move over the next 24 hours… rapidly pushing a shield of rain into the state by late morning Saturday.  For now it appears the timing of highest rain chances will be from 10am to 4pm Saturday.

Current modeling indicates the steadiest, most widespread rain should pivot east of the state by Saturday evening.  This will pave the way for mostly dry conditions the rest of the weekend.  The biggest change you’ll notice in the 7day forecast is the upgraded high temperature on Sunday.  The aforementioned storm system will move farther north, as opposed to east, and delay the passage of a cool front.  This will allow a persistent southwest wind to push daytime highs to near 60° Sunday afternoon!  The record for the day is 65°.  That should be safe, but temperatures will be a good 20° above normal!

Have a great day and even better weekend!

Sean Ash

Follow on Facebook or Twitter if you like.

 

Sunny Friday, soggy weekend?

We’ll have one more dry day on Friday with a high near 50 degrees. A cold front brings rain on Saturday and up to .50″ of rain is likely.

We’ll have one more dry day on Friday with a high near 50 degrees. A cold front brings rain on Saturday and up to .50″ of rain is likely. I am predicting ten, one-inch snows this winter and we may see our first one next Tuesday when a rain/snow mix is possible. Let’s keep our fingers crossed for snow.

 

Warming Trend Continues

Another chilly start in the 20s this morning, but sunshine from start to finish will quickly warm temperatures.  Dry air, full sunshine and a south-southwest wind will lead to a 20° swing for lows to highs.

Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 40s, and some 5°-10° above the average of 39°.  Under a clear sky expect a rather quick drop this evening and overnight.  Lows Friday morning will back in the chilly 20s.

With highs in the 50s and more sunshine, it’s to understand why Friday is my pick of the week.  High clouds come into play during the late afternoon and evening… and serve as a hint of changes on the way for the weekend.

We’re on borrowed time Saturday morning when it comes to dry weather.  Latest model data suggests it’s cloudy, but dry at 7am.

All bets are off for dry weather by noon Saturday, as rain with embedded thunder charge into the state.  For now it appears areas east of I-65 may have to wait until afternoon to get wet Saturday.

Rain is likely Saturday afternoon, but despite clouds and sogginess… temperatures remain above normal near 50°.

Sunday should be the drier day this weekend, with only a chance of showers.   We’re keeping our eyes on a system next week that may produce some snow around the viewing area Tuesday.  Long range guidance suggests any snow would be light, but confidence beyond four days is low… due to uncertainty in model performance.  Stay tuned.

Warming Up… Again

Are you looking for December weather? It’s not in Central Indiana!

Are you looking for December weather?  It’s not in Central Indiana!

Highs will reach the low to mid 40s today with mostly sunny skies.

Tonight we’re in for another cold one as lows dip into the low 20s outside of the Indy metro, in Indy, temps will fall to the mid 20s.

Thursday we’re back in the upper 40s and by Friday the low 50s!

Our next chance of rain moves in for the weekend.  Saturday looks soggy with temps in the 40s.  A chance of rain sticks around for Sunday too.

Cooler air moves in next week behind the rain.