Quite a roller coaster temperature ride set for Central Indiana this week. We expect a transition from the balmy highs today, to legit cold air Thursday afternoon.
The high of 56° Sunday actually occurred at 4am. Though we missed out on officially hitting 60°, temperatures were a good 15°-20° above normal… which has been par for the course this month.
Average temperatures for December 1st-15th is 44.6°, which is good for 4th warmest on record during that time for Indianapolis.
Monday will be yet another day above normal, despite clouds and increasing rain chance in the afternoon.
Expect morning lows near 40° with a gradual warm up into the upper 40s. Morning clouds have more bark than bite. As better lift interacts with an approaching front showers will break out by the time you’re heading home from work.
Monday night the atmosphere will be nearly cold enough to support frozen precipitation. But at this moment I believe most of what falls over Central Indiana will be a cold rain. Could a few wet flakes mix in? Sure, but it would require more sufficient lift to cool the parcel. For now I don’t see that happening, but will monitor the transition the next 24 hours.
On the flip-side, confidence is growing on a strong cold front/mid-latitude storm to impact the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Thursday. Current modeling consensus takes the center of the storm north of Central Indiana…placing the viewing area on the warmer side of the storm. (Click to enlarge the image below of model output at 1pm Thursday)
If this track verifies: (and if this storm actually happens) heavy rain, wind, a sharp temperature tumble and snow showers would be the main impacts.
This IS NOT a heavy snow track for Central Indiana. Above is the latest GFS model snowfall output, and the potential snow swath sticks out like a sore thumb. Granted this model is bullish on 10″+ totals, but the idea is that the heaviest snow occurs to the northwest of the low track.
In the storm’s warm sector early Thursday temperatures would shoot into the 50s and then crash into the low 30s/upper 20s by sunset Thursday. The graph below is a meteogram and depicts the polar plunge, and “potential single digit wind chills” Friday morning!
Bottom-line… if you’re not a fan of cold I suggest enjoying the sunshine Tuesday and Wednesday with highs near 50.
This cold shot may hang for a few days, with highs in the 30s into the weekend and lows near 20. Enjoy the work week.
Sean Ash / Follow on Facebook and Twitter if you like.