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Archive for December, 2012

Dec
20

Thunderstorms to Snow

Posted By · December 20, 2012 at 5:40 am

We’ll start our day with thunderstorms and end with snow for Central Indiana.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely across the state this morning.  Up to one inch of rain is possible as rain marches across Indiana.

Temps will fall throughout the day, but during the daytime hours, rain is what’s likely.

Beginning this afternoon wind gusts up to 50 mph are likely. 

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the counties below until 10am Friday.  Blowing snow will be a concern tonight.  Generally 1-2″ of snow is possible, with some areas picking up close to 3″.  However, it will be hard to measure because of the strong winds.

A Wind Advisory is in effect south of I-70 for the same time period.

After 7pm tonight, scattered showers will turn to a wintry mix, then snow.  Light snow accumulation will take place overnight as 1-3″ of snow falls across Central Indiana.  Winds will continue to gust up to 50mph, that will create single digit wind chills.

Light snow is still possible Friday morning, temps will only reach the upper 20s, but it will feel like the single digits all day long.

The weekend is dry, but next week on Tuesday and Wednesday we’ve got our eyes on another chance for a wintry mix or snow.  Stay tuned for details as we get closer to the Christmas holiday.

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Dec
19

Mild Wednesday… BIG Change from Storms to Snow Thursday

Posted By · December 19, 2012 at 5:21 am

Enjoy today’s mild weather, thunderstorms and snow are in the forecast beginning Thursday.

Highs will reach the upper 40s today with increasing clouds.

Tonight after midnight showers and thunderstorms are likely.  Temps remain mild in the 40s.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely Thursday morning.  By early afternoon, up to 1/2″ of rain is possible.

Temps will fall throughout the day Thursday with winds gusting up to 45mph.  By Thursday afternoon a rain/snow mix is possible as temps fall into the low 30s.

Thursday night into Friday morning strong wind gusts will continue as temps drop into the 20s.  Wind chills will be in the single digits, as light snow is expected.  As of right now up to 1″ of snow is possible by Friday morning.  Stay tuned, we could see the potential totals change.

Friday highs will only reach the low 30s, but wind gusts up to 30mph are still likely. 

The weekend will be cool and dry with a chance of wintry mix Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

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Dec
18

Taste of winter

Posted By · December 18, 2012 at 5:54 pm

Over the next 48 hours our weather will go from fall to winter.

Wednesday will be a sunny, mild day with highs in the low 50s. Thunderstorms are likely by Thursday morning and up to .50″ rain is likely during the day.

Northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph nwill change rain to snow in the afternoon. Up to an inch of snow is likely by Thursday evening.

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Dec
18

Mild Weather Returns… then Snow?

Posted By · December 18, 2012 at 5:03 am

Morning drizzle and fog will hang around Central Indiana before a mix of sun and clouds move into the forecast this afternoon.

Highs will reach the mid to upper 40s this afternoon.  Our normal high temp is 38 this time of year.

A spotty shower is possible in Northern Indiana tonight, but everyone else looks to remain dry as lows fall to the low to mid 30s.

Wednesday will be the best day out of the week if you like mild temps and sunshine!  Highs will reach the low 50s.

Thursday is a day of change.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely early in the morning. 

As colder air works in temperatures will fall into the 30s for the afternoon, and rain is expected to turn to snow.  At this time, light snow accumulations look possible, so we’ll keep you posted!

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Dec
17

Light rain, fog on the way for Tuesday

Posted By · December 17, 2012 at 6:06 pm

Light rain and dense fog are likely through Tuesday morning. A few flurries will also be possible before skies clear in the afternoon.

Our average date of first snow in November 19th. On November 12th we had two-tenths of an inch and that’s all we’ve had this season.

We should have had four inches of snow by this point in the season. We’ll have rain changing to snow on Thursday. Let’s hope for some accumulation.

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Dec
17

Foggy Start… Soggy Finish

Posted By · December 17, 2012 at 4:34 am

Patchy dense fog is likely in Central Indiana this morning.  It will be thicker south of I-70.

Highs will reach the upper 40s today with spotty showers developing this afternoon into this evening.

Overnight a few snowflakes may mix in with rain drops as the showers come to an end and temps fall into the mid 30s.

Sunshine and temps in the 50s are back for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Our day of chance arrives Thursday.  Stay tuned to the forecast as we continue to fine tune it closer to the end of the week.  As of right now, we’ll start Thursday off with temps in the upper 40s scattered showers and even isolated thunderstorms.  Temps will fall into the afternoon and the rain will begin to mix with snow.  As of right now, we could see some light snow accumulation Thursday evening or Thursday night. 

Behind the wet weather will be very cold temps.  Friday morning we’ll wake up to temps in the 20s and possible single digit wind chills!

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Dec
16

From Near 60 To Single Digit Wind Chill?

Posted By · December 16, 2012 at 9:10 pm

Quite a roller coaster temperature ride set for Central Indiana this week.  We expect a transition from the balmy highs today, to legit cold air Thursday afternoon.

The high of 56° Sunday actually occurred at 4am.  Though we missed out on officially hitting 60°, temperatures were a good 15°-20° above normal… which has been par for the course this month.

Average temperatures for December 1st-15th is 44.6°, which is good for 4th warmest on record during that time for Indianapolis.

Monday will be yet another day above normal, despite clouds and increasing rain chance in the afternoon.

Expect morning lows near 40° with a gradual warm up into the upper 40s.  Morning clouds have more bark than bite.  As better lift interacts with an approaching front showers will break out by the time you’re heading home from work.

Monday night the atmosphere will be nearly cold enough to support frozen precipitation.  But at this moment I believe most of what falls over Central Indiana will be a cold rain.  Could a few wet flakes mix in?  Sure, but it would require more sufficient lift to cool the parcel.  For now I don’t see that happening, but will monitor the transition the next 24 hours.

On the flip-side, confidence is growing on a strong cold front/mid-latitude storm to impact the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Thursday.  Current modeling consensus takes the center of the storm north of Central Indiana…placing the viewing area on the warmer side of the storm.  (Click to enlarge the image below of model output at 1pm Thursday)

If this track verifies: (and if this storm actually happens) heavy rain, wind, a sharp temperature tumble  and snow showers would be the main impacts.

This IS NOT a heavy snow track for Central Indiana.  Above is the latest GFS model snowfall output, and the potential snow swath sticks out like a sore thumb.  Granted this model is bullish on 10″+ totals, but the idea is that the heaviest snow occurs to the northwest of the low track.

In the storm’s warm sector early Thursday temperatures would shoot into the 50s and then crash into the low 30s/upper 20s by sunset Thursday.  The graph below is a meteogram and depicts the polar plunge, and “potential single digit wind chills” Friday morning!

Bottom-line… if you’re not a fan of cold I suggest enjoying the sunshine Tuesday and Wednesday with highs near 50.

 

This cold shot may hang for a few days, with highs in the 30s into the weekend and lows near 20.  Enjoy the work week.

Sean Ash / Follow on Facebook and Twitter if you like.

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Dec
16

NO GO ON 60° TODAY

Posted By · December 16, 2012 at 4:03 pm

Though impressively warm for this time of year, temperatures will not hit 60°.

Temperatures are still a good 15°-20° above normal for December 16th.  The nose of the warmest air pushed about 70 miles east of the Indy metro area, where Cincy and Columbus are sitting at 60°.

An updated long-range forecast coming shortly.

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