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Archive for November, 2012

Nov
25

Breezy Sunday… Wintry Mix / Snow on the Way?

Posted By · November 25, 2012 at 6:22 am

Temps will “warm” into the mid 40s today, but be prepared for wind gusts up to 25mph out of the southwest that will give us wind chills in the 30s.  A mix of sun and clouds is expected throughout the day.

Tonight temps drop into the mid to upper 20s with partly cloudy skies.

Monday, highs warm into the low 40s with mostly cloudy skies. 

Monday night, there’s a slight chance for a wintry mix.  As of right now, it looks like most of this system will stay south of Central Indiana.  There is still time for that to change, so there’s a 20% chance of a wintry mix late Monday night, and a 20% chance for a few snow showers early Tuesday morning.  Stay posted, we’ll keep you updated.

Highs Tuesday will only reach the upper 30s, but by Wednesday, we’re back in the 40s with the 50s returning by next weekend.

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Nov
24

Coldest Day Since Early February

Posted By · November 24, 2012 at 7:55 pm

A Canadian air mass and persistent low-level overcast produced our coldest daytime highs in 9 months.

The official high in Indianapolis of 32° is noteworthy for many reasons.  It’s 16° below normal, our coldest high temperature since February 11th of this year (25°), and the coldest November high in SEVEN years.  The last time Indianapolis had a November day with a high at or below freezing was 11/25/05 (28°).

Lows tonight likely occur around midnight, with clouds increasing temperatures in the mid 20s should hold steady.  But an unseasonably cold night (average low 32°) nonetheless.

Morning planner is cold for the Colts tailgate.  Mid/upper 20s around sunrsise (7:41am), and slowly climbing into the 30s by 10am.  Definitely layer up if you’re heading down to Lucas Oil Stadium.

Highs Sunday will be 10°-15° warmer than Saturday, but the southwest wind required for the warmth will actually put a big bite in the air.  Wind chills from the blustery wind will be in the 30s, so unfortunately it will never feel as warm as the actual highs.

The main forecast focus the next 7days will be on the Monday night-Tuesday morning time frame.   There is currently a disturbance in the north Pacific that could be a big weather player for us locally.  However, due to its location away from upper air soundings… we’re not going to have a high level of confidence on computer model guidance until Sunday evening.  So take the below model snowfall output images with that disclaimer, and realize MUCH can change over the next 24-36 hours. CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE

Again, THIS IS NOT my forecast but an early guidance of the data sets we use to construct a local forecast.  The two most likely scenarios for Central Indiana are 1) system tracks far enough south most (southern viewing area could still be impacted) of us stay just cold and dry. 2) a more northern track along Ohio River deposits a snow accumulation (amount to be determined) along I-70 corridor.  Stay tuned for changes.

That’s the only notable feature in the 7day forecast.  Notice temperatures begin to creep back into the 50s later in the week.

 

Have a great evening!

Sean Ash

Follow on Facebook and Twitter if you like.

 

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Nov
24

Bundle Up… Chill Settles In

Posted By · November 24, 2012 at 5:57 am

Bundle up Central Indiana, temps will only reach the mid 30s today.  We’ll see a mix of sun and clouds with winds out of the west up to 10 mph, bringing the wind chill into the 20s at times.

Tonight overnight lows drop into the mid 20s with partly cloudy skies.

Sunday we warm up, but turn windy.  Highs will reach the mid 40s.  Our normal high this time of year is 48.  A very breezy afternoon will set up with wind gusts up to 25mph out of the southwest.

Most of the day Monday looks dry, but late Monday into early Tuesday morning a quick system moves in.  As of right now, a rain snow mix is possible, we will be monitoring very closely to see if temps get cold enough to turn the precip to snow.  Any precip will exit early Tuesday leaving us with a mainly dry forecast for the rest of the week.

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Nov
23

Big Temperature Change Moving In

Posted By · November 23, 2012 at 4:44 am

Highs in the 60s are gone, as temps fall into the 30s by this afternoon.

Overnight, scattered showers moved through Central Indiana.  Here’s a look at a few rain totals from the Indianapolis metro.

Today we’ll start the day with temps in the 40s, but end in the 30s with winds out of the west up to 25mph as skies become partly cloudy.

If you’re heading downtown for the Circle of Lights tonight, bundle up!  Skies will be mostly clear with temps in the 30s.

We start the weekend with very cold temps.  Early Saturday morning lows will be in the 20s, and we only warm into the mid 30s. 

Sunday we’re warmer in the mid 40s.

Our next chance for rain moves in Monday, and by Tuesday we could see a rain/snow mix.

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Nov
22

Chilly (and possibly wet) Black Friday

Posted By · November 22, 2012 at 6:07 pm

A few sprinkles will be possible Friday morning and clouds will linger through the day. Northwest winds gusting up to 35 miles per hour will force much colder air into the state. Highs will be near 40 degrees and lows will be in the mid-20s through Sunday.

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Nov
21

The Road to Thanksgiving

Posted By · November 21, 2012 at 7:47 am

Dense fog will be replaced by sunshine later this morning across Central Indiana.

Highs will reach the low 60s with mostly sunny skies.

Tonight temps drop into the low 40s, perfect starting line temps for Thanksgiving morning runs.

Thanksgiving day looks great with temps warming into the low 60s.  Clouds will increase as we head into the late afternoon and evening.  Late in the evening spotty showers are possible, so if you’re heading out to shop, take the rain gear.

Friday much cooler air sets up with highs only in the mid 40s.

Saturday and Sunday morning starts will be chilly with temps in the upper 20s. 

We’ll be watching next Monday and Tuesday closely as a rain/snow mix is possible.

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Nov
18

Mild Days Here To Stay

Posted By · November 18, 2012 at 8:05 pm

Hard to argue that some of the best weather across the country is over our backyards right now.  We capped-off the weekend with highs nearly 10° above normal.

In fact Bloomington, Terre Haute, and Shelbyville all eclipsed the 60° mark Sunday.  With essentially no air mass changes the next 48 hours, expect similar daytime highs Monday and Tuesday.

To get to a balmy afternoon we’ll have to endure another chilly drive to work and school in the morning.  Lows in Indy will be around 34, with rural/low-lying areas near 30 (or lower).

Expect upper 30s by 8am, mid 50s by midday and highs at or above 60° by 4pm.  Notice clouds do increase in your daily planner Monday… which will be the most noticeable difference tomorrow.

But a southerly wind flow will be enough to counter an increasing mid/high level cloud filter.  That limits sun somewhat Monday and Tuesday.  But despite the cirrus/stratus shield, temps will be equally as warm.

If you’re getting a head start on holiday travel, the Pacific Northwest will be the trouble spot.  A persistent onshore flow will keep airports like SEA (Seattle-Tacoma) and PDX (Portland) soggy, and likely cause delays.  Notice in the FutureTrak13 panels below, Tuesday and Wednesday stay very soggy on the west coast… as SFO (San Fran) may be added to the delay list.

Notice how quiet the weather is for a healthy portion of the U.S. in between the coasts.  I don’t expect major weather delays elsewhere prior to Thanksgiving, besides typical holiday volume on roads and airports.

If you’re staying at home this week you’re in for a real treat.  The cloud-making disturbance may squeeze a few sprinkles out Tuesday.  Otherwise it’s very quiet, and pleasantly mild into Thanksgiving Day… when highs should hit 60°!  Perfect conditions for the Drumstick Dash Thursday morning too.  Good luck to all the runners and walkers before your feast.  Our run of above normal warmth will end next weekend, as highs return to the low/mid 40s.  Preceding the cool down, a few showers are possible for holiday shoppers Friday.

Below is a look at Indianapolis’ Thanksgiving Climatology (via NWS Indianapolis)… keeping in mind that the holiday can fall on the 22nd-29th.  As mentioned before, if our 60° forecast high verifies this will be the warmest since 1981.

Enjoy the evening and thanks for visiting the blog!

Sean Ash

You can follow on Facebook and Twitter if you like

 

 

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Nov
18

Mild Week Ahead

Posted By · November 18, 2012 at 6:22 am

The “normal” high temperature is in the low 50s, today we’ll warm into the upper 50s!

Tonight, temps drop to the mid to upper 30s with mostly clear skies.  It won’t be as cold across Central Indiana.

Most of this week looks rain free, here’s where we stand on Indianapolis rain totals:

Monday looks great as highs approach the 60 degree mark!

Tuesday there’s a chance for sprinkles, then we dry out and warm up close to 60 Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day.

Not much to talk about in the 7 day forecast… just a great holiday week!

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