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Archive for November, 2012

Nov
30

Much Advertised Warm Up Arrives

Posted By · November 30, 2012 at 1:52 pm

For nearly seven days now we’ve been forecasting an unseasonably warm start to the month of December.  That forecast comes to fruition this weekend.  But let’s not leave out a fabulous Friday afternoon… perfect timing for the Big 10 Fan Fest!

With an average high of 45°, we’re well into bonus territory in the mid/upper 50s today.  Today will be the sunniest of the next three or four afternoons.  Clouds increase Saturday, and a decent chance of rain on Sunday.  Below is the latest FutureTrak 13 for the second half of the weekend.

The SkyTrak Forecast team has also been highlighting Monday as the warmest day of this balmy start of December.  Latest data continues to suggest temperature anomalies of 20°+F.  If this verifies, we’ll need to keep an eye on the December 3rd record high 69°.  It’s not a good practice to forecast record temperatures beyond 72 hours, and am going to go 66° for Monday now.  Adjustments (up or down) may be needed depending on cloud cover.

Temperatures tumble to reality after the passage of cold front Tuesday.  Expect rain, and possibly thunderstorms, during this transition.  New long-range data suggests the chill only lasts Wednesday, and we may return quickly to the 50s Thursday/Friday.  If this trend continues the 7day will be adjusted accordingly.

Have a great afternoon and weekend!

Sean Ash

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Nov
30

Wonderful Warm Up is Here

Posted By · November 30, 2012 at 4:15 am

We’re off to a cold start, but a mild finish is in the cards for Central Indiana.

Highs will reach the mid 50s today with sunny skies.

Tonight temps will stay above freezing with lows in the upper 30s.

Saturday clouds will be on the increase as highs reach the upper 50s.  Late Saturday night scattered showers are possible.  The chance for rain continues through Sunday as highs approach the 60 degree mark!

Monday still looks to be the best day out of the forecast with highs in the low to mid 60s.

Tuesday showers and thunderstorms are likely with temps falling throughout the day.  By Wednesday, cooler more seasonal highs in the 40s are back.

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Nov
29

Hurricane season ends

Posted By · November 29, 2012 at 6:11 pm

Hurricane Sandy devastated towns along the east coast.

The 2012 North American hurricane season ends today. It was very busy year with 19 named storms. Twelve is average. Ten of those storms became hurricanes, four more than average. Only one of them became a major hurricane – Sandy. The season had an early start with two May hurricanes and for the second consecuitve year the mid-Atlantic states and the Northeast suffered major damage.

Read more from NOAA about the 2012 hurricane season.

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Nov
29

The Start of Warmer Temps

Posted By · November 29, 2012 at 7:21 am

A warm up is coming… a warm up is coming!

Highs will reach the upper 40s today with mostly sunny skies and a breeze out of the south up to 15 mph.

Tonight skies remain clear as temps drop to the low 30s.

Friday more sunshine, and more warmth!  Highs reach the mid 50s.

Saturday remains dry with highs in the upper 50s, late Saturday night and Sunday scattered showers are likely.

The rain won’t damper temps on Sunday as highs soar into the low 60s.

Monday looks to be the best day out of the week with temps in the low to mid 60s with sunshine!

Tuesday showers and thunderstorms are likely with falling temps.  Get ready for the cold to return after the rain moves out!

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Nov
28

November warm-up!

Posted By · November 28, 2012 at 4:12 pm

Winter is just three weeks away and we are in store for a warm-up as a warm front moves north of Indiana. Highs will be near 50 on Thursday and Friday and near 60 this weekend, with our next chance for rain  Saturday night and Sunday. We’ll have a chance for t-storms on Tuesday.

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Nov
28

Sunshine & BIG Warm Up on the Way

Posted By · November 28, 2012 at 5:29 am

Ready for sunshine?  Today we’ll see plenty of it with temps reaching the mid 40s.

Tonight temps drop to the upper 20s.

Thursday, highs reach the upper 40s with mostly sunny skies.

Friday looks dry with temps in the low 50s.

Saturday clouds will be n the increase as highs hit the mid 50s.  Late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening we’ll be watching rain develop.  As we get closer to the weekend, we will nail down the timing of the rain.

Sunday, scattered showers are possible but look at high temps… close to 60!

Monday looks to be the best day out of the 7 day forecast with highs in the low 60s!

Tuesday showers and thunderstorms are likely as temps fall during the day.  Much cooler air will move in behind the rain with temps Wednesday only reaching the low 40s.

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Nov
26

Snow Possible For Some Tonight

Posted By · November 26, 2012 at 2:16 pm

Sunshine continues across the I-70 corridor… for now.  Clouds will increase late afternoon as an approaching weather system embarks on the Ohio Valley.

No big changes to our ongoing forecast.  There’s still a “chance” of “light” snow over parts of Central Indiana between the hours of 8pm-3am (give or take).

FutureTrak 13 at 7pm shows a narrow sliver of possibly flurries/light snow entering western Indiana.  This seems feasible when you project out a band light snow that’s currently in Iowa.  It’s still difficult to say how much will actually be able to reach the ground, due to very dry air at the surface.

Warmer surface temps from I-70 southward, the precip may initially begin as rain before transitioning to all snow.  This region will have better atmospheric lift and moisture to produce precipitation, but a warmer ground should allow any snow to melt quickly.

Though I don’t anticipate “widespread” road issues, if the aforementioned sliver of snow materializes a light accumulation is possible… especially north of I-70 given the colder temperature profile there.

Also of note, a persistent northerly wind vector off of Lake Michigan may push some lake effect flurries/snow showers into the northern viewing area… and possibly as far south as the 465 loop Tuesday morning.   This will require some nowcasting, with low confidence in that part of the forecast.
Tuesday will be unseasonably cold and leads into a frosty start in the low/mid 20s Wednesday morning.  Each day will get progressively warmer heading into the weekend.  Temperatures will approach 60° for the start of December!
Have a great afternoon.
Sean Ash
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Nov
25

Slight Snow Chance Monday Night

Posted By · November 25, 2012 at 7:20 pm

A layer of clouds overnight will likely keep lows from dropping much.  Expect morning lows between 30°-35°.  Conversely, a northerly wind undercutting varying amounts of cloud cover Monday will keep daytime highs in check.  Top temps tomorrow will be between 40°-46°.

Here’s the latest on a very weak weather system that will race through the Ohio Valley Monday night.

With not much moisture, a dry northerly wind, and the best lift along the Ohio River, there’s a very slim chance that the Indy metro area will see flurries and/or any snow showers.  Chances are better for Columbus/Bloomington, but not higher than 20-30 perc ent.  Seymour & Bedford (being closer to the best moisture/lift) have a 50/50 shot of a light dusting Monday night.

For now, the best timing for any white stuff appears to be 10pm Monday – 3am Tuesday.

Notice FutureTrak 13 showing quick clearing on Tuesday in the wake of this disturbance.  Make no mistake, the air mass overheard will be chilly…as evident of the unseasonably cold highs in the 30s despite a bright sky.

The Tuesday through Wednesday morning time frame will be the coldest of next week.  Air mass modification quickly occurs after midweek, and highs near 50° Thursday afternoon.  Next weekend looks unseasonably mild, but a tradeoff will be shower chances on Saturday.

It does appear that the month of December will begin on a rather mild note.  Long range ensemble/analog data suggests the wait for true winter cold will be until the second-half of the month.  Below is the 500mb (half-way up the atmosphere) height anomalies via the GFS & ECMWF models.  Positive anomalies typically correspond with warmer than normal conditions, and this is for the 8-10 day period that ends on December 5th (next Wednesday).

The GFS ensemble temperature mean departure for December 3 (next Monday) indicates potential of temperatures being 10°-15° above normal.

“If” these long range indicators verify, it’s “possible” that 60° warmth might return to Central Indiana.  Stay tuned.

Enjoy your week!

Sean Ash

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