Much Advertised Warm Up Arrives

For nearly seven days now we’ve been forecasting an unseasonably warm start to the month of December.  That forecast comes to fruition this weekend.  But let’s not leave out a fabulous Friday afternoon… perfect timing for the Big 10 Fan Fest!

With an average high of 45°, we’re well into bonus territory in the mid/upper 50s today.  Today will be the sunniest of the next three or four afternoons.  Clouds increase Saturday, and a decent chance of rain on Sunday.  Below is the latest FutureTrak 13 for the second half of the weekend.

The SkyTrak Forecast team has also been highlighting Monday as the warmest day of this balmy start of December.  Latest data continues to suggest temperature anomalies of 20°+F.  If this verifies, we’ll need to keep an eye on the December 3rd record high 69°.  It’s not a good practice to forecast record temperatures beyond 72 hours, and am going to go 66° for Monday now.  Adjustments (up or down) may be needed depending on cloud cover.

Temperatures tumble to reality after the passage of cold front Tuesday.  Expect rain, and possibly thunderstorms, during this transition.  New long-range data suggests the chill only lasts Wednesday, and we may return quickly to the 50s Thursday/Friday.  If this trend continues the 7day will be adjusted accordingly.

Have a great afternoon and weekend!

Sean Ash

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Wonderful Warm Up is Here

We’re off to a cold start, but a mild finish is in the cards for Central Indiana.

We’re off to a cold start, but a mild finish is in the cards for Central Indiana.

Highs will reach the mid 50s today with sunny skies.

Tonight temps will stay above freezing with lows in the upper 30s.

Saturday clouds will be on the increase as highs reach the upper 50s.  Late Saturday night scattered showers are possible.  The chance for rain continues through Sunday as highs approach the 60 degree mark!

Monday still looks to be the best day out of the forecast with highs in the low to mid 60s.

Tuesday showers and thunderstorms are likely with temps falling throughout the day.  By Wednesday, cooler more seasonal highs in the 40s are back.

Hurricane season ends

The 2012 North American hurricane season ends today. It was very busy year with 19 named storms.

Hurricane Sandy devastated towns along the east coast.

The 2012 North American hurricane season ends today. It was very busy year with 19 named storms. Twelve is average. Ten of those storms became hurricanes, four more than average. Only one of them became a major hurricane – Sandy. The season had an early start with two May hurricanes and for the second consecuitve year the mid-Atlantic states and the Northeast suffered major damage.

Read more from NOAA about the 2012 hurricane season.

The Start of Warmer Temps

A warm up is coming… a warm up is coming!

A warm up is coming… a warm up is coming!

Highs will reach the upper 40s today with mostly sunny skies and a breeze out of the south up to 15 mph.

Tonight skies remain clear as temps drop to the low 30s.

Friday more sunshine, and more warmth!  Highs reach the mid 50s.

Saturday remains dry with highs in the upper 50s, late Saturday night and Sunday scattered showers are likely.

The rain won’t damper temps on Sunday as highs soar into the low 60s.

Monday looks to be the best day out of the week with temps in the low to mid 60s with sunshine!

Tuesday showers and thunderstorms are likely with falling temps.  Get ready for the cold to return after the rain moves out!

November warm-up!

Highs will be near 50 on Thursday and Friday and near 60 this weekend, with our next chance for rain Saturday night and Sunday.

Winter is just three weeks away and we are in store for a warm-up as a warm front moves north of Indiana. Highs will be near 50 on Thursday and Friday and near 60 this weekend, with our next chance for rain  Saturday night and Sunday. We’ll have a chance for t-storms on Tuesday.

Sunshine & BIG Warm Up on the Way

Ready for sunshine? Today we’ll see plenty of it with temps reaching the mid 40s. If that’s not warm enough for you, read on the 60s could be returning!

Ready for sunshine?  Today we’ll see plenty of it with temps reaching the mid 40s.

Tonight temps drop to the upper 20s.

Thursday, highs reach the upper 40s with mostly sunny skies.

Friday looks dry with temps in the low 50s.

Saturday clouds will be n the increase as highs hit the mid 50s.  Late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening we’ll be watching rain develop.  As we get closer to the weekend, we will nail down the timing of the rain.

Sunday, scattered showers are possible but look at high temps… close to 60!

Monday looks to be the best day out of the 7 day forecast with highs in the low 60s!

Tuesday showers and thunderstorms are likely as temps fall during the day.  Much cooler air will move in behind the rain with temps Wednesday only reaching the low 40s.

Snow Possible For Some Tonight

Sunshine continues across the I-70 corridor… for now.  Clouds will increase late afternoon as an approaching weather system embarks on the Ohio Valley.

No big changes to our ongoing forecast.  There’s still a “chance” of “light” snow over parts of Central Indiana between the hours of 8pm-3am (give or take).

FutureTrak 13 at 7pm shows a narrow sliver of possibly flurries/light snow entering western Indiana.  This seems feasible when you project out a band light snow that’s currently in Iowa.  It’s still difficult to say how much will actually be able to reach the ground, due to very dry air at the surface.

Warmer surface temps from I-70 southward, the precip may initially begin as rain before transitioning to all snow.  This region will have better atmospheric lift and moisture to produce precipitation, but a warmer ground should allow any snow to melt quickly.

Though I don’t anticipate “widespread” road issues, if the aforementioned sliver of snow materializes a light accumulation is possible… especially north of I-70 given the colder temperature profile there.

Also of note, a persistent northerly wind vector off of Lake Michigan may push some lake effect flurries/snow showers into the northern viewing area… and possibly as far south as the 465 loop Tuesday morning.   This will require some nowcasting, with low confidence in that part of the forecast.
Tuesday will be unseasonably cold and leads into a frosty start in the low/mid 20s Wednesday morning.  Each day will get progressively warmer heading into the weekend.  Temperatures will approach 60° for the start of December!
Have a great afternoon.
Sean Ash
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Slight Snow Chance Monday Night

There’s a (very) small chance for snow late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

A layer of clouds overnight will likely keep lows from dropping much.  Expect morning lows between 30°-35°.  Conversely, a northerly wind undercutting varying amounts of cloud cover Monday will keep daytime highs in check.  Top temps tomorrow will be between 40°-46°.

Here’s the latest on a very weak weather system that will race through the Ohio Valley Monday night.

With not much moisture, a dry northerly wind, and the best lift along the Ohio River, there’s a very slim chance that the Indy metro area will see flurries and/or any snow showers.  Chances are better for Columbus/Bloomington, but not higher than 20-30 perc ent.  Seymour & Bedford (being closer to the best moisture/lift) have a 50/50 shot of a light dusting Monday night.

For now, the best timing for any white stuff appears to be 10pm Monday – 3am Tuesday.

Notice FutureTrak 13 showing quick clearing on Tuesday in the wake of this disturbance.  Make no mistake, the air mass overheard will be chilly…as evident of the unseasonably cold highs in the 30s despite a bright sky.

The Tuesday through Wednesday morning time frame will be the coldest of next week.  Air mass modification quickly occurs after midweek, and highs near 50° Thursday afternoon.  Next weekend looks unseasonably mild, but a tradeoff will be shower chances on Saturday.

It does appear that the month of December will begin on a rather mild note.  Long range ensemble/analog data suggests the wait for true winter cold will be until the second-half of the month.  Below is the 500mb (half-way up the atmosphere) height anomalies via the GFS & ECMWF models.  Positive anomalies typically correspond with warmer than normal conditions, and this is for the 8-10 day period that ends on December 5th (next Wednesday).

The GFS ensemble temperature mean departure for December 3 (next Monday) indicates potential of temperatures being 10°-15° above normal.

“If” these long range indicators verify, it’s “possible” that 60° warmth might return to Central Indiana.  Stay tuned.

Enjoy your week!

Sean Ash

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Breezy Sunday… Wintry Mix / Snow on the Way?

Temps will “warm” into the mid 40s today, but be prepared for wind gusts up to 25mph out of the southwest that will give us wind chills in the 30s.

Temps will “warm” into the mid 40s today, but be prepared for wind gusts up to 25mph out of the southwest that will give us wind chills in the 30s.  A mix of sun and clouds is expected throughout the day.

Tonight temps drop into the mid to upper 20s with partly cloudy skies.

Monday, highs warm into the low 40s with mostly cloudy skies. 

Monday night, there’s a slight chance for a wintry mix.  As of right now, it looks like most of this system will stay south of Central Indiana.  There is still time for that to change, so there’s a 20% chance of a wintry mix late Monday night, and a 20% chance for a few snow showers early Tuesday morning.  Stay posted, we’ll keep you updated.

Highs Tuesday will only reach the upper 30s, but by Wednesday, we’re back in the 40s with the 50s returning by next weekend.

Coldest Day Since Early February

A Canadian air mass and persistent low-level overcast produced our coldest daytime highs in 9 months.

The official high in Indianapolis of 32° is noteworthy for many reasons.  It’s 16° below normal, our coldest high temperature since February 11th of this year (25°), and the coldest November high in SEVEN years.  The last time Indianapolis had a November day with a high at or below freezing was 11/25/05 (28°).

Lows tonight likely occur around midnight, with clouds increasing temperatures in the mid 20s should hold steady.  But an unseasonably cold night (average low 32°) nonetheless.

Morning planner is cold for the Colts tailgate.  Mid/upper 20s around sunrsise (7:41am), and slowly climbing into the 30s by 10am.  Definitely layer up if you’re heading down to Lucas Oil Stadium.

Highs Sunday will be 10°-15° warmer than Saturday, but the southwest wind required for the warmth will actually put a big bite in the air.  Wind chills from the blustery wind will be in the 30s, so unfortunately it will never feel as warm as the actual highs.

The main forecast focus the next 7days will be on the Monday night-Tuesday morning time frame.   There is currently a disturbance in the north Pacific that could be a big weather player for us locally.  However, due to its location away from upper air soundings… we’re not going to have a high level of confidence on computer model guidance until Sunday evening.  So take the below model snowfall output images with that disclaimer, and realize MUCH can change over the next 24-36 hours. CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE

Again, THIS IS NOT my forecast but an early guidance of the data sets we use to construct a local forecast.  The two most likely scenarios for Central Indiana are 1) system tracks far enough south most (southern viewing area could still be impacted) of us stay just cold and dry. 2) a more northern track along Ohio River deposits a snow accumulation (amount to be determined) along I-70 corridor.  Stay tuned for changes.

That’s the only notable feature in the 7day forecast.  Notice temperatures begin to creep back into the 50s later in the week.

 

Have a great evening!

Sean Ash

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