Weekend Warm Up & Severe Weather Threat

Highs will jump into the 70s this weekend, but not without a chance of rain, and even the possibility of strong to severe storms.

Highs will jump into the 70s this weekend, but not without a chance of rain, and even the possibility of strong to severe storms.

Indiana will warm into the 70s today with increasing clouds and a 20% chance for an afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm.  Winds will gust out of the south up to 20 mph.

Tonight, a spotty shower or thunderstorm is possible as temps drop to the low 60s.

Sunday, highs reach the low 70s with thunderstorms likely.  Some storms may be strong to severe with damaging wind and hail the main threats.  An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.  Outside of thunderstorms, winds will gust out of the southwest up to 20mph.  Check out the area under a “slight” risk for severe storms tomorrow.

Monday we dry out, and cool into the 60s, with another chance for rain moving in late Wednesday.

Cool Today, Warm Tomorrow, Stormy Sunday

Get ready for some big changes this weekend! Today, we’ll be cool with highs in the 50s. It will be a cool, clear and dry evening for Operation Football with kick-off temps around 54. But look what’s heading our way for the weekend! 70s for highs.

The warmth will also come with wind. We’ll have southerly winds 10-20 with higher gusts tomorrow, then southwesterly winds 15-25 mph Sunday with higher gusts. But given that 10 of the last 12 days have been cooler than average, it will be nice to see some fall warmth.

Storms will threaten on Sunday and some could turn strong to severe. There’s a slight risk of severe Indy points south on Sunday, with the risk of large hail and high winds looking most likely Sunday afternoon into early evening at this point.

Rain totals could reach up to 1/2″ on Sunday with those scattered storms.

Back to work and back to school on Monday, we’ll be heading back to cool weather as well.

Finally, our WTHR Hoosier Pic at noon from Joel Connaway in Connorsville yesterday at sunrise. Simply beautiful! Share your pic here: https://www.facebook.com/ChikageWindlerFanPage or here: https://www.facebook.com/WTHR13

Have a great weekend!
-Chikage

Twitter Facebook

Temperature Roller Coaster

Central Indiana is on a temperature roller coaster, and it doesn’t look to even out any time soon.

Central Indiana is on a temperature roller coaster, and it doesn’t look to even out any time soon.

We’ll see a few sprinkles before 8 this morning, but then skies clear and temps top out in the mid 50s today.  Winds will gust out of the west up to 25mph.

 

Tonight, temps drop into the low to mid 30s. 

Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings have been posted for counties south of I-70.

Thursday after a cold start, we rebound to the low 60s.

Friday looks dry, with a slight chance of a storm on Saturday.  Saturday and Sunday we’re back in the 70s, but Sunday looks soggy and stormy.  As of right now, storms look to develop early Sunday morning, and could clear by the afternoon.  We will keep a close eye on the timing of this, stay tuned, because it’s likely to change as we get closer to the weekend.

 

Temperature Swings and Showers

We woke up to frost again, though it wasn’t as cold as yesterday morning.

Thanks to sunshine and southerly winds, we’re rebounding nicely! Temps should top out in the 60s with October-like weather for a change after days of temps more like November.

Don’t get used to the milder air, though. A strong cold front moves through tonight – accompanied by a narrow stripe of showers.

The rain will likely move into Northwest Indiana around 2am and push through the Indy Metro by 7am. By sunrise, the pavement may be wet, but the rain should be over. Most areas will not see much rain, generally only a few hundredths of an inch.

Behind the front and after the showers, get ready for a colder, blustery Wednesday. Highs may only manage mid 50s with winds gusting 20+ mph.

That’s likely to pave the way for another frigid night with lows by Thursday morning dropping into the low 30s. A hard freeze is likely for much of Central Indiana.

The real warmth arrives this weekend…but with a catch. In addition to highs in the 70s, we’ll have rain chances. There could be some rain first thing Saturday morning, then a warm and breezy day Saturday. Then late Saturday night into Sunday morning, t-storms are possible – some could be strong or severe, so that bears watching.

Finally, our Hoosier Pic at noon from Lori Baxter who snapped this gorgeous fall scene on the Sweetser Switch Trail. Share your pic here: https://www.facebook.com/ChikageWindlerFanPage or here https://www.facebook.com/WTHR13

Have a great afternoon!
-Chikage

Twitter Facebook

Warm & Windy Tuesday

Temps are going up… and is the wind speed in Central Indiana.

Temps are going up… and is the wind speed in Central Indiana.

Highs will reach the mid 60s today with mostly sunny skies.  Winds will gust out of the south up to 25mph, so a very breezy afternoon is ahead.

Tonight, lows drop to around 40, with scattered showers developing after midnight.  Light rain of less than .10″ will exit the state by 9am.

A cooler day is ahead Wednesday with highs in the mid 50s.  The rain ends early, leaving a sunny afternoon.

Thursday and Friday temps return to the 60s.  We might see a sprinkle early Friday morning… but the real chance for rain arrives this weekend.

Spotty thunderstorms are possible Saturday, but become more likely Sunday.  We are watching the weekend forecast closely.  Some storms may be strong to severe.  We will have much more on the timing as we get closer to the weekend.

How Low Did it Go? Climbing Out of the Cold

We woke up to the coldest morning since April! Officially at the Indianapolis International Airport, we actually did have our first freeze. Earlier this morning, it appeared the low was 33, but the National Weather Service updated the low to 31 degrees this afternoon. It fell to 31 at 7:14 am. The average first freeze for Indy is October 16th. Just about everywhere else, lows dropped into the upper 20s to around 30.

How cold where you live? Take a look at some of the lows from our SkyTrak WeatherBug Network.

We’ll have sunshine to help warm us up this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 50s. That will still be about 10 degrees cooler than average. The average high for October 8th is 68.

Dry and sunny will be the words of the day again tomorrow, but late tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning, a cold front moves through bringing some light showers along the way. That rain is moving through the Upper Midwest in Minnesota today.

If you’re hoping for a better warm-up, you’ll have to wait ’til the weekend. BUT we may also dodge some showers (even storms) this weekend. For now, it looks like we may wake up to some rain Saturday morning, watch sunshine and warmth move in during the day, then see showers and storms (some strong?) Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Finally, our WTHR Hoosier Pic at noon courtesy of Gary Blinebury who snapped this frosty pic in Speedway this morning at sunrise. Share your pic here: https://www.facebook.com/ChikageWindlerFanPage or here: https://www.facebook.com/WTHR13

Have a great day!
-Chikage

Twitter Facebook

Chilly Start… Mild Finish

This morning is the coldest start for Indy since April, brr!

This morning is the coldest start for Indy since April, brr!  A Freeze Warning remains in effect for all of Central Indiana until 9am.

Today plenty of sunshine will warm us into the upper 50s.

 

The 50s is “cool” for this time of year, our “normal” high is 68, and our “normal” low is 47.

Tonight won’t be as cold as temps drop to the mid 30s.

Tuesday the 60s are back, and late Tuesday night into Wednesday rain is possible.

We warm up and turn mild in your 7 day forecast… a chance for thunderstorms returns for the weekend.

Freeze Warning Early Columbus Day Morning

The coldest air since April moves in tonight as skies clear and winds turn light. A killing frost and freeze is possible – which has prompted a FREEZE WARNING from 2am to 9am Columbus Day Monday morning. The coldest temps will likely arrives between 7:20 and 8am. The city may be slightly warmer than freezing (I’m forecasting 34 officially for Indy – coldest since 33 on April 12th), but the suburbs and outlying spots will likely drop to 32 or below.

Here’s a look at Metro low forecasts for tomorrow morning. It could get down to 30 in Zionsville, 32 in Greenfield and Greenwood, and 31 in Anderson and Martinsville.

More forecast lows across Central Indiana include 32 for Rushville, 31 in Nashville and Danville, 30 for Marion and Crawfordsville, and 29 for Brazil.

Though we might not quite fall to 32 at Indianapolis Int’l Airport where the official readings are taken, we’ll be close. For perspective, the average first freeze for Indy is October 16th, so if we get there in the morning, it will be about a week ahead of the average.

Temperatures will remain cool for Columbus Day, but not as cool as the weekend, thanks to winds turning out of the southwest and plenty of sunshine. We’ll warm to around 58, still 10 degrees cooler than average.

Our highs warm into the 60s Tuesday, then fall back into the 50s for one day on Wednesday as a cold front moves through early morning. It could bring some rain showers along the way. We’ll be dry Thursday, then will watch a system just to our south on Friday that could mean wet weather for much of Southern and South-Central Indiana with dry weather in North-Central and Northern Indiana. That could change, so keep checking back for updates. Next weekend, the stage is set for possible thunderstorms with a warm front moving through in the morning and a cold front moving through at night. Temps near 70 are possible.

Finally, our WTHR-TV Hoosier Pic at 6 courtesy of CJ Breedlove-Sizemore who snapped this pic of “Karma” enjoying fall. Share your pics here: https://www.facebook.com/ChikageWindlerFanPage or here: https://www.facebook.com/WTHR13

Have a great week and stay warm!
-Chikage

Twitter Facebook

Freeze Warning Tonight

A Freeze Warning is in effect for Central Indiana tonight as temps drop to the upper 20s and low 30s around the Hoosier state.

A Freeze Warning is in effect for Central Indiana tonight as temps drop to the upper 20s and low 30s around the Hoosier state.

Before temps drop tonight, highs today will struggle to get into the low 50s.  We’ll start the day with mostly cloudy skies, then see clearing late in the day.

It’s that clearing tonight that will allow temps to drop at or below freezing.

That’s why a Freeze Warning has been issued across Central Indiana.  A widespread frost or freeze is likely.

Temps this cold are here a little early this year.

Monday we start cold, but warm into the upper 50s with plenty of sunshine.

Tuesday we’re back in the 60s.  Late Tuesday night into midday Wednesday scattered showers will be on the radar.  Temps in the 7 day become more seasonal.  Our normal high this time of year is 69.  The normal low is in the upper 40s.

Taste Of November

Anyway you slice it, the first weekend of October looks and feels like fall… and actually more like mid-November.  The string of cool nights and mild afternoons has fall foliage taking off across Central Indiana.

Thanks to viewer Manjit Trehan for capturing some brilliant reds and oranges around Legendary Hills in Indianapolis today.  Color should only get better, but a killing frost may take a toll on volume after Monday morning.

The Indianapolis morning low of 35 was the coldest of the season so far.  A indicator of how impressively cold this air mass is… despite a full dose of sunshine, highs in Central Indiana only made it into low/mid 50s.  That’s about  15° below normal, and good for the coldest daytime since late April.

As expected, clouds are increasing in response to an upper-level disturbance that will ride along the I-70.  The boundary layer remains dry enough to keep the forecast area precipitation free.  But the clouds play a HUGE role in the overnight/Sunday forecast.  The mid-level deck essentially acts as insulation, or a blanket.  Keeping low temps up tonight, and conversely keeping highs down Sunday.

I’m actually leaning toward raising these temperatures a few degrees more, based on evening readings that are about 6° warmer than Friday night’s pace.  Bottom-line, the city will be anywhere from 2°-5° warmer in the morning.  Still unseasonably chilly, but not as cold as Saturday morning.   *Update*  The above map is adjusted to account for the clouds and slower cooling that resulted.  Temperatures will be closer to 40 than the mid 30s.  Still chilly, but not as cold as Saturday morning.

Clouds and chilly temps headline the Sunday planner.  Tailgaters you’ll need a coat, and don’t forget to bring a gently used or new coat as well to the game as we collect for Bob Gregory’s Coat For Kids.  I have hope for at least partial sunshine later in the day… but certainly not as bright as today.  Lack of sun will lead to slightly cooler highs near 50°, and help set the stage for an even colder night as clouds clear and the wind goes calm.

The aforementioned atmospheric conditions will be ideal for raditional cooling… as the dry air and crystal clear allows for maximum heat loss.  This will result in the first freeze of the season, and likely a killing frost Monday morning.  Away from the city upper 20s are certainly fair game.

Air mass modification kicks-in Tuesday with highs nearing 70, making it an obvious candidate for Pick-Of-The-Week.  There is a rain chance Wednesday with the arrival of another frontal system, though admittedly slim moisture may warrant eliminating the rain chance.  I’m going bullish on Saturday’s high… lending credence to the trusted European model which has been stellar of late.

Last, but certainly not least, is the dent Indianapolis has put into the rainfall deficit.  What a remarkable rally in the August through October 5th time period… with a whopping 16″ of rain.  So Indy picked up more rain in two months, five days than the prior seven months combined!  That ladies and gentleman is why I love my job.

Enjoy your evening.  Nicole Misencik’s back in the morning and Chikage returns to her normal shift tomorrow too.

It’s been a pleasure.

Sean Ash

Follow On Facebook or Twitter